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At least 217 records · Page 12

Observations of Boundary Layer Convergence Lines and Associated Updrafts in the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Abstract Boundary layer convergence lines (CLs) are highly effective at deep-convection initiation (DCI), suggesting that their associated updraft properties differ from those of more widespread turbulent updrafts in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). This study exploits observations at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (ARM SGP) observatory in Oklahoma from 2011 to 2016 to quantify CL properties and their relation to turbulent PBL eddies preceding CL arrival. Two independent methods for estimating CL properties are developed at two locations in the SGP region, both relying on the assumption of a 2D circulation in the CL-normal plane but using different combinations of instruments. The first (the radar method) relies mainly on scanning radar data and is applied to 61 CLs passing near a high-resolution scanning radar based in Nardin, Oklahoma, while the second (the surface method) relies mainly on surface wind data and is applied to 68 CLs crossing the SGP facility in nearby Lamont, Oklahoma. Mean daytime (1000–1900 LST) CL width (∼2 km) and convergence magnitude (∼0.003 s −1 ) are similar for both methods, and mean daytime CL depth is ∼0.75 km. The two methods disagree at night (0000–1000 and 1900–2400 LST), where the surface method estimates wider and weaker CLs than the radar method. This difference may stem from the radar beam overshooting the shallow, highly stable nocturnal PBL. The largest CL updrafts are slightly wider (∼20%) and stronger (∼40%) than the largest PBL updrafts in the pre-CL period, generating 50%–100% larger updraft mass fluxes over most of the PBL depth. Significance Statement Deep convection is commonly initiated by boundary layer convergence lines (CLs), which are associated with intense surface-based wind convergence and strong updrafts that may lift air to saturation. Although CLs form regularly, they are far less common than ordinary, short-lived turbulent thermals in the daytime boundary layer. To better understand why CLs are so effective at deep-convection initiation, we observationally quantify their morphologies and strengths and compare these properties to those of surrounding turbulent updrafts. Perhaps surprisingly, the CLs are found to exhibit only slightly larger scales and strengths as the turbulent updrafts. Although these marginal increases help to explain the preference for storms to initiate along CLs, they likely are not the whole story.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tropical Interbasin Interaction as Effective Predictors of Late-Spring Precipitation Variability in the Southern Great Plains

Abstract The southern Great Plains experience fluctuating precipitation extremes that significantly impact agriculture and water management. Despite ongoing efforts to enhance forecast accuracy, the underlying causes of these climatic phenomena remain inadequately understood. This study elucidates the relative influence of the tropical Pacific and Atlantic basins on April–May–June precipitation variability in this region. Our partial ocean assimilation experiments using the Community Earth System Model unveil the prominent role of interbasin interaction, with the Pacific and Atlantic contributing approximately 70% and 30%, respectively, to these interbasin contrasts. Our statistical analyses suggest that these tropical interbasin contrasts could serve as a more reliable indicator for late-spring precipitation anomalies than El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The conclusions are reinforced by analyses of seven climate forecasting systems within the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, offering an optimistic outlook for enhancing real-time forecasting of late-spring precipitation in the southern plains. However, the current predictive skills of the interbasin contrasts across the prediction systems are hindered by the lower predictability of the tropical Atlantic Ocean, pointing to the need for future research to refine climate prediction models further. Significance Statement Agriculture and infrastructure in the southern plains face challenges from severe late-spring precipitation extremes. Traditional predictors like El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) lose effectiveness during the critical spring-to-summer transition, creating a forecasting gap. This study introduces the concept of tropical interbasin interactions, known to enhance seasonal predictability for late-spring precipitation in the southern plains. Novel climate model experiments highlight contributions from the tropical Pacific and Atlantic, offering a promising predictability that potentially surpasses the limitations of ENSO-based predictions. These outcomes hold the potential for developing operational forecasts of late-spring precipitation anomalies in the southern plains, enabling proactive risk management.

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu↗

Land–Atmosphere Coupling at the U.S. Southern Great Plains: A Comparison on Local Convective Regimes between ARM Observations, Reanalysis, and Climate Model Simulations

Using the 9-yr warm-season observations at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains site, in this work we assess the land–atmosphere (LA) coupling in the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and two climate models: hindcasts with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 by Cloud-Associated Parameterizations Testbed (CAM5-CAPT) and nudged runs with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Atmosphere Model version 1 Regionally Refined Model (EAMv1-RRM). We focus on three local convective regimes and diagnose model behaviors using the local coupling metrics. NARR agrees well with observations except a slightly warmer and drier surface with higher downwelling shortwave radiation and lower evaporative fraction. On clear-sky days, it shows warmer and drier early-morning conditions in both models with significant underestimates in surface evaporation by EAMv1-RRM. On the majority of the ARM-observed shallow cumulus days, there is no or little low-level clouds in either model. When captured in models, the simulated shallow cumulus shows much less cloud fraction and lower cloud bases than observed. On the days with late-afternoon deep convection, models tend to present a stable early-morning lower atmosphere more frequently than the observations, suggesting that the deep convection is triggered more often by elevated instabilities. Generally, CAM5-CAPT can reproduce the local LA coupling processes to some extent due to the constrained early-morning conditions and large-scale winds. EAMv1-RRM exhibits large precipitation deficits and warm and dry biases toward mid-to-late summers, which may be an amplification through a positive LA feedback among initial atmosphere and land states, convection triggering and large-scale circulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Intercomparison of Dynamically and Statistically Downscaled Climate Change Projections over the Midwest and Great Lakes Region

Downscaling of global climate model (GCMs) simulations is a key element of regional-to-local-scale climate change projections that can inform impact assessments, long-term planning, and resource management in different sectors. Here, we conduct an intercomparison between statistically and dynamically downscaled GCMs simulations using the hybrid delta (HD) and the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model, respectively, over the Midwest and Great Lakes region to 1) validate their performance in reproducing extreme daily precipitation (P) and daily maximum temperature (T max ) for summer and winter and 2) evaluate projections of extremes in the future. Our results show the HD statistical downscaling approach, which includes large-scale bias correction of GCM inputs, can reproduce observed extreme P and T max reasonably well for both summer and winter. However, raw historical WRF simulations show significant bias in both extreme P and T max for both seasons. Interestingly, the convection-permitting WRF simulation at 4-km grid spacing does not produce better results for seasonal extremes than the WRF simulation at 12 km using a parameterized convection scheme. Despite a broad similarity for winter extreme P projections, the projected changes in the future summer storms are quite different between downscaling methods; WRF simulations show substantial increases in summer extreme precipitation, while the changes projected by the HD approach exhibit moderate decreases overall. The WRF simulations at 4 km also show a pronounced decoupling effect between seasonal totals and extreme daily P for summer, which suggests that there could be more intense summer extremes at two different time scales, with more severe individual convective storms combined with longer summer droughts at the end of the twenty-first century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal response to fire and urbanization in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park

Wildfires are increasing in frequency and intensity as drier and warmer climates increase plant detrital fuel loads. At the same time, increases in urbanization position 9% of fire-prone land within the United States at the wildland–urban interface. While rarely studied, the compounded effects of urbanization and wildfires may have unknown synergistically negative effects on ecosystems. Previous studies at the wildland–urban interface often focus on aboveground plant communities, but belowground ecosystems may also be affected by this double disturbance. In particular, it is unclear how much fire and urbanization independently or interactively affect nutritional symbioses such as those between arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi and the majority of terrestrial plants. In November 2016, extreme drought conditions and long-term fire suppression combined to create a wildfire within the Great Smoky Mountains National Park and the neighboring exurban city of Gatlinburg, TN. To understand how the double disturbance of urbanization and fire affected AM fungal communities, we collected fine roots from the 5 dominant understory species in September 2018 at each of 18 sites spanning 3 burn severities in both exurban and natural sites. Despite large variation in burn severity, plant species identity had the largest influence on AM fungi. AM fungal colonization, richness, and composition all varied most among plant species. Fire and urbanization did influence some AM fungal metrics; colonization was lower in burned sites and composition was more variable among exurban locations. There were no interactions among burn severity and urbanization on AM fungi. Our results point to the large influence of plant species identity structuring this obligate nutritional symbiosis regardless of disturbance regime. Therefore, the majority of AM fungal taxa may be buffered from fire-induced ecosystem changes if plant community composition largely remains intact, plant species life history traits allow for AM fungal persistence after fire disturbance, and/or nearby undisturbed habitat can act as an inoculum source for recolonization following fires. Thus, it is critical to maintain natural, undisturbed habitats interspersed within the wildland–urban interface.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Exploring the Great Pyramid

For centuries, the pyramids at Giza have been the object of frequent speculation and study. L. Alvarez et al. in 1970 and the ScanPyramids collaboration in 2017 have very successfully implemented HEP detector technology to image the pyramid of Khafre and the Great Pyramid of Khufu, respectively. Numerous questions about Khufu’s structure remain, however. The EGP project aims to undertake a new study of this enigmatic monument’s interior by applying high-resolution tomographic imaging and reconstruction, which will permit a detailed understanding of internal variations in density and may offer insight regarding exactly how Egypt’s largest pyramid was built.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Play Fairway Analysis: Structurally Controlled Geothermal Systems in the Eastern Great Basin Extensional Regime, Utah

A research team with membership from the University of Utah/Energy & Geoscience Institute, the University of Utah/Dept. of Geology & Geophysics, and the Utah Geological Survey, undertook a play fairway analysis (PFA) for geothermal resources in the Eastern Great Basin (EGB) extensional tectonic regime of western Utah. This is a high-priority region for geothermal exploration because active Basin and Range (B&R) extension with volcanism having a N-S strike is superimposed upon pre-existing E-W belts of plutonic rocks and large-scale structural lineaments. Cumulative heat flow along the N-S strike of the state totals approximately 5 GWt above background stable interior. Three electricity producing power plants currently exist with substantial potential for increase. Succinctly, our PFA approach aims to resolve potential sources of heat and permeability in the region, which are the two principal criteria for establishing a geothermal resource. An initial Phase 1 was carried out using only existing geoscientific data in the area. Criteria selected for focusing heat potential include direct heat flow measurements in boreholes, magnetotelluric (MT) low resistivity anomalies, fluid/gas geochemistry, and proximity to recent volcanic eruptions. Permeability is established through geological structures (fault density, critically stressed areas, seismicity, gravity), and MT low resistivity anomalies. In Phase II of this PFA project, additional geological, geophysical and geochemical data were acquired and analysis carried out primarily over promising composite common risk (CCR) areas initially identified in Phase I in order to focus prospectivity and prepare for drilling recommendations. These prospects are near the Twin Peaks rhyolite field, high heat flow areas north of the producing Cove Fort system, and geophysical structure beneath the Crater Knoll area off the northeast flank of the Mineral Mountains. Additional data included MT site fill-in, structural mapping and analysis using high-resolution imagery, gravity and on-ground mapping, Nodal 3C passive seismic collection, and passive 3He surveying. Heat source and permeability potential are again expressed in terms of their individual common risk segment (CRS) maps, with a color scheme using green for most favorable (low risk) and red for least favorable (high risk). Diverse data types are united through the technique of probability kriging, which establishes prospectivity thresholds for each data type and then computes probability of exceeding that threshold over the PFA area. Modified CRS and CCRS maps are compared to those of Phase I to highlight tighter prospectivity focus. In doing so, the prospectivity threshold for heat was increased significantly to narrow the targeting. In the final Phase III of this project where a recommended deep thermal gradient hole was sited, additional geophysical, geochemical and geological field collection and analysis was carried out to refine drill hole targeting. This includes prospect-scale MT, gravity, structure, passive seismic deployment (Cove Fort area), and detailed 3He isotope profiling. It was the recommendation of the DOE Technical Monitoring Team (TMT) that one or more holes be sited in the north-ern Cove Fort area where legacy TG gradient holes showed high cumulative heat flow. These were to be of moderate depth, 2000-3000 feet, to reach the geothermal fluid table expected to start in excess of 1000 feet depth. The drilling organization stipulated by the DOE/GTO was that of the USGS Research Drilling Program (RDP) centered in Las Vegas, NV. A detailed well plan, appended to this report, was developed principally by Dr. Ben Barker consulting to University of Utah, Dr. Steve Pye on the DOE TMT, Mr. Steven Crawford of the USGS-RDP, and the project PI Phil Wannamaker. However, temperature and possible H 2 S at the systems lead to cancellation of the drilling last-minute as this appeared outside the experience base of the USGS-RDP. We hope to have the opportunity to revisit the test drilling and expand the Play Fairway Analysis of this region at some point in the future.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Examining the Ice-Nucleating Particles from the Southern Great Plains Field Campaign Report

The recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility field campaign, named Examining the Ice-Nucleating Particles from Southern Great Plains (ExINP-SGP), targeted experimentally characterizing abundance and other properties of ambient ice-nucleating particles (INPs) at the SGP site in Oklahoma (36° 36' 18" N, 97° 29' 6" W) during the period of October 1 to November 14, 2019. This campaign was funded through the DOE Office of Science Early Career Research Program (DE-SC0018979) as one of three major campaigns to be conducted at three ARM observatories, including the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) station in 2020–2021 and North Slope of Alaska (NSA) site in 2021–2023, besides SGP. Different INP episodes were assessed to develop an SGP-relevant ice nucleation parameterization that would help understand convective and mixed-phase cloud systems typically observed in this region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Boundary Layer Climatology at ARM Southern Great Plains

Operational since 1992, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site in Oklahoma, USA, has become a reference research site for meteorological studies. Because of an open data policy the ARM data are used by researchers all over the world. In this report, we review the long-term climatology of the atmospheric boundary layer, the SGP instrumentation, the site and some site-specific atmospheric conditions, which potentially affect wind turbines in the region. Because the atmospheric boundary layer is bounded and influenced by the land surface, observations of surface radiation components and heat fluxes are crucial to understanding land–atmosphere interactions. The entrainment of air, updrafts, downdrafts, and boundary layer height characteristics is needed for understanding the structure and growth of the atmospheric boundary layer. Therefore, measurements from both ground surface in situ and remote-sensing observations at the SGP site provide an overall climatology and their interactions from ground surface up to the boundary layer. Measurements from a 60 m meteorological tower, surface flux stations, disdrometers, soil temperature and moisture flux plates, coherent Doppler lidar, Raman lidar, radiosondes, and satellite data at the SGP central facility were analyzed. All the measurements were generally made within a few square kilometers of each other at the central facility. This report focuses on data from January 2010 to June 2020 at the SGP central facility. The various sections describe the ARM SGP site and surrounding wind turbines; in situ and remotesensing instrumentation used in the report; mathematical equations to analyze fluxes, turbulence, and other boundary layer parameters; a climatological analysis of surface winds, fluxes and thermodynamic parameters for several years; an analysis of observed winds in the framework of Monin-Obukhov Similarity Theory (MOST); an analysis of the boundary layer winds and direction from a Doppler lidar; multi-year turbulence estimates through the boundary layer from a Doppler lidar; atmospheric boundary layer water vapor and relative humidity profiles from Raman lidar; cloud base height and boundary layer height from multiple sensors and satellite data; and finally site-specific atmospheric conditions, such as nocturnal low-level jets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analysis of Three Types of Collocated Disdrometer Measurements at the ARM Southern Great Plains Observatory

To better provide U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s disdrometer deployment strategy and support ARM precipitation-related projects, this study analyzes 18 months of drop size distribution (DSD) observations from six collocated disdrometers deployed at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. Emphasis is placed on quantifying the uncertainties related to DSD and rainfall properties using different types of disdrometers and different pairing concepts. The instrument sampling errors are also discussed, which improves our understanding of instrument-specific impacts on rainfall measurements. The key findings are as follows: 1) All the disdrometers show consistent behaviors overall regarding accumulated precipitation, mean rainfall rate, DSD parameters, and radar reflectivity values; and 2) Strong agreement is shown between three disdrometer types in terms of their DSDs for mid-size drop range (D = 1 mm-4 mm). The two-dimensional video disdrometer performance meets expectations as the most accurate unit among all. The paired disdrometer shows a reduced statistical sampling error in terms of drop counts and other DSD properties. A concept of deploying two or more collocated disdrometers side by side is recommended for future ARM field campaigns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Examining the Ice Nucleating Particles from Southern Great Plains Part II (ExINP-SGP). Field Campaign Report

Knowledge of airborne particulate matter (PM), especially the particles that have supermicron diameters, is key for understanding ice-nucleating particles (INPs). Supported by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility, recent INP measurements at the Southern Great Plains observatory (SGP; 36'' 36' 18→ N, 97° 29' 6'' W) during multiple campaigns, such as SINCE-2014 (DeMott et al. 2015), Examining the Ice-Nucleating Particles from SGP (ExINP-2019; Hiranuma and Vepuri 2020), and Aerosol-Ice Formation Closure Pilot Study (AEROICESTUDY; Knopf et al. 2021a), strongly suggested the contribution of supermicron aerosol particles to observed INP abundance at SGP. However, verification of this hypothesis was hampered since additional offline laboratory analyses require sufficient amounts of collected airborne PM, which was lacking. Therefore, the principal investigators (PIs) conducted a field campaign, named ExINP-SGP II, to collect airborne PM at SGP for complementary laboratory characterization of the particles’ physicochemical properties (including ice nucleation properties). We used a passive particle sampler, which is a 4’ x 4’ x 2” (L x W x D) aluminum pan inside the 12”-high wooden windshield wall at the rooftop deck of the ARM Aerosol Observing System (AOS) trailer to collect dry PM deposits from January to April 2021. Figure 1 shows images of our experimental setup at the site. Additionally, we also collected surface soil near the ARM AOS trailer on 20 November 2020 (Figure 1b) to examine the ground soil dust particles (< 63 µm sieved) for their propensities to initiate immersion freezing compared to collected ambient PM. Surface soil and airborne samples were stored in the chemically inert container separately and kept in a dry, cool place until analyzed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Agricultural Ice Nuclei at Southern Great Plains (AGINSGP) Field Campaign Report

The Agricultural Ice Nuclei at Southern Great Plains (AGINSGP) field campaign was conducted from April 4 to April 29, 2022, at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) SGP site in Oklahoma. The goal of this campaign was to improve understanding of the sources and variability of ice-nucleating particles (INPs) at the SGP site. To this end, the key objectives of the campaign were (1) to produce a high-quality data set including measurements of atmospheric INP concentrations and aerosol particle properties relevant to the sources of INPs; and (2) to conduct a residual characterization experiment including offline and online analysis of the physical and chemical characteristics of INPs sampled in ambient air at SGP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Direct Measurement of Small Particle Growth and Aging at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains Observatory Field Campaign Report

Two identical Captive Aerosol Growth and Evolution (CAGE) chambers were operated at the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) observatory in the late summer and fall of 2021. The field study was scheduled to begin in spring, 2020, but was delayed because of the pandemic. CAGE chambers are designed to expose particles to an environment that mirrors that of the surroundings with or without a controlled perturbation designed to assess a sensitivity. The analysis here focuses on roughly the last two months of the overall study period during which measurements were almost continuous and when several perturbation experiments were conducted. Though the utility of a dual-chamber system is the ability to measure the influence of a single change on top of ambient conditions, both chambers were initially operated in the same way, with ambient air pulled through the gas exchange channel in both and ammonium sulfate particles injected into both. The similar time-dependent particle growth observed in the chambers for those periods provides confidence in differences observed during the subsequent perturbation experiments. The growth rate of particles in the reference chamber into which only ammonium sulfate particles were injected and for which only ambient air was pulled through were used to describe time-of-day averages. The average growth rate was highest in the evening and in the morning after sunrise and lowest in the late afternoon. The sensitivity of particle growth to secondary aerosol precursor gases was studied by adding them at a controlled rate to the ambient air flow pulled through one of the two chambers. Addition of 5 ppb of α-pinene resulted in an average particle growth rate of 4.4 nm hr -1 , compared with that of just 0.8 nm hr -1 in the reference chamber. The added α-pinene also triggered one new particle formation (NPF) event in the early evening just before sunset and another in the morning just after sunrise. Similarly, addition of 5 ppb of SO 2 to one chamber led to a pair of NPF events and to increased particle growth rate, though unlike the impact of added α-pinene, growth was enhanced only during the daytime when OH concentration is highest. The influence of aerosol liquid water on secondary aerosol formation and particle growth was investigated by injecting ammonium sulfate seed particles into one chamber and potassium sulfate particles into the other. Particles were injected into the two chambers four times over a 1.5-day period. The chamber relative humidity (RH) history during and following each injection was used to determine whether each particle type was crystalline or aqueous. For the case when both particle types remained crystalline throughout the period, they were tracked and for the case when they remained aqueous, the magnitude and time-dependence of the growth of both were almost exactly the same. For the other two cases the ammonium sulfate particles deliquesced upon injection and remained aqueous, while the potassium sulfate particles remained crystalline. For those two cases, the aqueous particles grew substantially faster than did the crystalline particles, providing evidence of the role of aerosol liquid water on secondary aerosol formation and particle growth.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Large-Volume Stimulation of Rock for Greatly Enhanced Fluids Recovery using Targeted Seismic-Assisted Hydraulic Fracturing (Final Technical Report)

This project has developed and demonstrated a new technology for large-volume and targeted comminution of rock in low permeability formations to enhance recovery from unconventional oil and gas (UOG) resources. The technology is based on a strategically designed interaction of multiple induced seismic pulses that assist the hydraulic fracturing process to enhance shear and multi-planar crack formation. This greatly increased rock stimulation, through bulk comminution, is expected to cause significant increase in permeability leading to enhancement of recovery factors for sub- surface fluids. The proposed technology is especially applicable for enhanced recovery in emerging UOG plays, such as ductile shales that are resistant to opening-mode fracturing by conventional hydraulic fracturing processes. The project combines an integrated experimental and computation approach to develop and demonstrate a modular technology that can be easily implement in the field to augment current practices. The effort integrates a fundamental scientific understanding of dynamic material response under constraint and damage-induced permeability and porosity enhancements at multiple length scales, along with models of comminution due to the local release of kinetic energy associated with high shear strain rate of dynamic deformation. The results will be validated through small-scale experiments and then implemented in a lab-scale field test to demonstrate the developed technology. The project involves collaboration between a solid mechanician, a materials scientist, and a petroleum engineering geo-mechanician. It builds on a successful history of success and collaboration that includes both fundamental scientific exploration and technology development.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

An Extension Industrial Assessment Center in Eastern Great Lakes Region

The extension IAC at CWRU is funded for 3 years to conduct 10 assessments of small and medium-sized manufacturing facilities each year in Eastern Great Lakes region. Total 30 assessments was proposed in the SOPO but due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the IAC program was suspended for 1.5 years. A total of 20 assessments was contracted to the extension IAC at CWRU which have been successfully accomplished. In the proposal, we proposed to train 18 students in the extension IAC program, and actually we selected and trained 19 students even though the IAC project was suspended during half of its project period.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Source Attribution of Methane Enhancements at the Southern Great Plains Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Site Field Campaign Report

Tower data from 2017 to 2020 revealed that the U.S. Department of Energy’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) observatory in Oklahoma exhibited significant CH 4 enhancements compared to other U.S. tower sites. On average, near-surface CH 4 at the ARM site was higher, had larger diurnal and seasonal variations, and had sharper near-surface increases at night compared to other tower sites in the U.S. A field campaign was conducted in June 2024 to identify and quantify the surrounding CH 4 emission sources by two researchers from the University of Oklahoma. During the campaign, a mobile measurement was conducted using a LI-COR 7810 tracer gas analyzer mounted on a vehicle during June 23-26, 2024 near the SGP site (within 7 km distance). We sampled CH 4 along predefined routes surrounding a suspected source, i.e., a large animal feeding operation (AFO) farm 5.8 km northwest of the SGP ARM site. Measurements were collected between 04:30 and 09:00 local time when the planetary boundary layer (PBL) was shallow, increasing sensitivity to surface emissions. Driving speed was kept below 5 mph to minimize pressure-related artifacts. CH 4 concentrations downwind of the AFO exceeded 6000 ppb on the early morning of June 26, corresponding to an emission rate of ~95 kg⋅hr -1 estimated using the mass balance method. Additional sources identified during the campaign include nearby open-range cattle and leaks from a nearby natural gas pipeline.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Flow Forecasting on New England’s Great River Hydro (CRADA 549) (Final Report)

Great River Hydro (GRH) is New England's largest conventional hydropower generator and operates sustainable hydropower systems in Vermont, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts. Several of GRH’s hydropower projects on the Connecticut River are largely constrained to operate as run-of-river; however, though a new FERC license they have opportunity in the form of flex hours where they are allowed to deviate operations to capture favorable market conditions or emergency operations. To maximize value from these new operations, GRH is considering new sources of forecasted inflow. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is evaluating the quality of two commercial inflow forecasts for GRH under DOE Water Power Technology Office’s Notice of Opportunity for Technical Assistance: Improving Hydropower’s Value through Informed Decision Making. This project will provide an unbiased evaluation of the accuracy of inflow forecasts available through commercial vendors. GRH will use this information to support their decision on which inflow forecast to use under their new FERC license and to assess the overall value of the available inflow forecasting tools and practices. In this talk we will discuss details of the near real-time forecast evaluation process, the metrics involved in the evaluation, and some preliminary results. In addition, we’ll touch on the second phase of the project which involves evaluating scheduling strategies that identify windows of opportunity to change operations in ways that increase profit through participation in day ahead and real time markets.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Large-scale homogeneity in the distribution of quasars in the Hercules-Corona Borealis Great Wall region

In light of recent debates on the existence of a gigaparsec-scale structure traced by gamma-ray bursts, namely the Hercules-Corona Borealis Great Wall (HCBGW), we revisit large-scale homogeneity in the spatial distribution of quasars. Our volume-limited sample of quasars in the redshift range 1:6 < z ≤ 2:1, which is constructed from the data release 7 of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey quasar catalogue, covers about half of the suspected HCBGW region. We analyze the sample in two complementary ways: fractal analysis of determining the average scale of homogeneity and friends- of-friends analysis of identifying specific large-scale structures. The quasar distribution on average reaches homogeneity at rh = 136 ± 38h-1 Mpc and the richness and comoving size frequencies of large (> ~ 150h-1 Mpc) quasar groups are consistent with the prediction of homogeneous distribution. These results put constraints on the spatial extent of the HCBGW but do not contradict its existence since our quasar sample does not cover the entire HCBGW region.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗