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At least 217 records · Page 12

Evaluation of CMIP6 models in simulating the statistics of extreme precipitation over Eastern Africa

We report the Eastern Africa region experiences frequent extreme precipitation events that can cause destruction of property and environment, and loss of lives. Thus, there is a need to understand how these events may change in the future and how well the global climate models that are used to make projections can simulate precipitation extremes in this region before they can be used in downscaling or flood and drought impact assessment studies. In this work, we evaluated the ability of sixteen Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to simulate present-day precipitation extremes over the Eastern Africa region during the two rainy seasons (March–May and September–November). We used nine extreme precipitation indices (including seven (one) indices of wet (dry) extremes) defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. The CMIP6 models were evaluated against two gridded observation datasets: Global Precipitation Climatology Project One-Degree Daily Dataset and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42. Three model performance metrics (percentage bias, normalized root-mean-square error, and pattern correlation coefficient) were employed to further assess the strengths and weakness of the models. Our results show that the multi-model ensemble mean generally provides a better representation of observed precipitation and related extremes compared to individual models when considering all metrics and seasons. Several consistent biases are evident across CMIP6 models, which tend to overestimate the total-wet day precipitation and consecutive wet days, and underestimate very wet days and maximum 5-day precipitation in both seasons. Furthermore, no single model consistently performs best, model performance varies with the season and index under consideration and is generally independent of horizontal resolution.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Motion and interaction of decaying trailing vortices in spanwise shear wind

A simulation is presented of the drift of trailing vortices in a cross-wind near the ground by an unsteady, two-dimensional, rotational flow field with a concentration of large vorticity in vortical spots (having a finite but small effective size and finite total strength). The problem is analyzed by a combination of the method of matched asymptotic analyses for the decay of the vortical spots and the Euler solution for the unsteady rotational flow. Using the method of averaging, a special numerical method is developed in which the grid size and time step depend only on the length and velocity scales of the background flow and are independent of the effective core size of a vortical spot. The core size can be much smaller than the grid size, whereas the peak velocity in the core is inversely propertional to the spot size. Numerical results are presented to demonstrate the strong interaction between the trajectories of the vortical spots and the change of the vorticity distribution in the background flow field.

Liu, C. H.↗

Buckling analysis and test correlation of high temperature structural panels

This paper focuses on the design, analysis, and test of a high temperature structural panel, constructed of Ti-6-4, subjected to a variety of thermal and mechanical load conditions. A follow-on panel, constructed of TMC, is also discussed in less detail. The design constraints and test set-up are discussed, as well as the test methods that were used: the grid shadow moire method and a single gage force stiffness method. The agreement between the test data and analysis for this test program provides confidence in the methods that are currently being used to design structures for hypersonic vehicles. The agreement also suggests that postbuckled strength may potentially be used to reduce the vehicle weight.

Teare, Wendy P.↗

Technical Performance of Refractory Liners for Molten Chloride Salt Thermal Energy Storage Systems

A chloride-based molten-salt system that uses a ternary blend of MgCl2/KCl/NaCl is investigated to provide higher temperature thermal energy storage capability. Despite higher thermal stability, molten chlorides present several unique challenges, including the design of internal refractory-ceramic liners to prevent the corrosion and thermal stress of alloy tank shells. This work discusses issues and potential solutions related to containment of molten chloride salt, specifically the optimization of the refractory material at the molten salt interface (hot face). The down-selected hot face candidate limits permeation of salt through the material and forms a highly stable secondary surface phase in equilibrium with the molten salt. A mortar is created using the corrosion resistant hot face brick. Brick and mortar composite are subjected to mechanical stress/strain analysis, in order to calculate composite material properties and better inform thermomechanical models. The U.S. Department of Energy Generation 3 (DOE Gen3) program seeks to develop higher efficiency CSP plants that can provide cost-competitive, flexible power in the U.S. electric grid. The proposed Gen3 Liquid Pathway CSP plant closely resembles the configuration of current nitrate salt power towers with two-tank storage (Gen2). The differences between Gen2 and Gen3 include the types of compatible materials used in salt storage tank construction. Stainless steel loses strength at Gen3 temperatures, and although nickel superalloys would be capable of withstanding sustained high temperatures, these materials are prohibitively expensive at scale. Uninsulated tank shells also pose a significant risk as common steels are highly susceptible to chemical attack from molten chloride salt. To address these concerns, refractory-ceramic based containment materials are proposed to line the inside of the hot and cold storage tanks. In doing so, stainless or carbon steel shells may be used in construction depending on the level of insulation provided. The composition of the internal liner requires careful consideration to maximize the efficacy of multiple parameters including corrosion resistance, strength at operating temperature, durability, and cost. This is particularly true for the material at the interface with the salt, known as the "hot face", which is responsible for protecting the insulating layers between the tank shell and the hot face brick layer. The molten salt in this system is superheated over 300 °C above its freeze temperature. Therefore, unlike other industrial processes which use refractory-lined vessels, it is not expected that a freeze plane will develop in the hot face. Therefore, the hot face must be designed to withstand chemical corrosion and inhibit permeation of molten salt into the insulating layers. A down selection was performed to identify a hot face candidate best equipped to maintain thermal, mechanical, and chemical integrity when exposed to molten salt over extended periods of time. Long-duration chemical capability experiments were conducted with the down selected hot face refractory fully immersed in molten chloride salt for up to 3000 hours. The average salt penetration does not exceed 100 microns. When extrapolated to 20 and 30 years of continuous exposure, the expected salt penetration depth is approximately 2.0 mm and 2.9 mm, respectively. A magnesium-rich secondary phases develops at the salt/refractory interface. X-ray diffraction identifies the material as forsterite (Mg2SiO4), which is reported to form synthetically in molten chloride salt solutions. These results suggest the selected hot face will adequately inhibit salt permeation. While there is optimism that the hot face brick will inhibit salt permeation, mortar joints are typically the weakest point of a refractory brick liner. From a thermochemical perspective, differing thermal expansion coefficients may result in the mortar and brick to grow independent of each other, creating gaps through which molten salt can penetrate. To address this issue, NREL has developed an in-house mortar composed of the down selected hot face brick that has been shown to be compatible with the salt. Compressive stress/strain analyses have been performed on the brick/ mortar composites to generate stress/strain curves. Modulus of elasticity and Poisson's ratio of the composite may be calculated from the stress/strain curves, in order to provide more representative data to finite element mechanical models for accurate approximation of stress on the tank shell and the amount of thermal expansion expected within the tank liner.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Nanocellulose‐Carboxymethylcellulose Electrolyte for Stable, High‐Rate Zinc‐Ion Batteries

Abstract Aqueous Zn ion batteries (ZIBs) are one of the most promising battery chemistries for grid‐scale renewable energy storage. However, their application is limited by issues such as Zn dendrite formation and undesirable side reactions that can occur in the presence of excess free water molecules and ions. In this study, a nanocellulose‐carboxymethylcellulose (CMC) hydrogel electrolyte is demonstrated that features stable cycling performance and high Zn 2+ conductivity (26 mS cm −1 ), which is attributed to the material's strong mechanical strength (≈70 MPa) and water‐bonding ability. With this electrolyte, the Zn‐metal anode shows exceptional cycling stability at an ultra‐high rate, with the ability to sustain a current density as high as 80 mA cm −2 for more than 3500 cycles and a cumulative capacity of 17.6 Ah cm −2 (40 mA cm −2 ). Additionally, side reactions, such as hydrogen evolution and surface passivation, are substantially reduced due to the strong water‐bonding capacity of the CMC. Full Zn||MnO 2 batteries fabricated with this electrolyte demonstrate excellent high‐rate performance and long‐term cycling stability (>500 cycles at 8C). These results suggest the cellulose‐CMC electrolyte as a promising low‐cost, easy‐to‐fabricate, and sustainable aqueous‐based electrolyte for ZIBs with excellent electrochemical performance that can help pave the way toward grid‐scale energy storage for renewable energy sources.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Statistics and dynamics of persistent anomalies

Persistent anomalies with recurrent spatial patterns play an important role in the atmosphere's low-frequency variability. A connection between statistical and dynamical methods of description and prediction of persistent anomalies is established by computing and analyzing the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) in a simple deterministic model, on the one hand, and in Southern Hemisphere geopotential heights, on the other. The dynamical model is governed by the fully nonlinear, equivalent-barotropic vorticity equation on the sphere, with simplified forcing, dissipation and topography. The Southern Hemisphere data consist in gridded daily maps of 500 mb heights from June 1972 to July 1983. Two types of persistent anomalies appear in this time series, both having a strong wavenumber-three component; they differ by the value of the constant phase of this wave and by the strength of the wavenumber-one component. The first two EOFs bear a striking resemblance to these two patterns. It is concluded that the dynamical interpretation of EOFs is their pointing from the time mean to the most populated regions of the system's phase space. Pursuing this interpretation, a Markov-chain formulation of transitions from one persistent anomaly regime to another is introduced, and the implications for long-range forecasting are discussed.

Mo, Kingtse C.↗

Flutter Analysis of a Transonic Fan

This paper describes the calculation of flutter stability characteristics for a transonic forward swept fan configuration using a viscous aeroelastic analysis program. Unsteady Navier-Stokes equations are solved on a dynamically deforming, body fitted, grid to obtain the aeroelastic characteristics using the energy exchange method. The non-zero inter-blade phase angle is modeled using phase-lagged boundary conditions. Results obtained show good correlation with measurements. It is found that the location of shock and variation of shock strength strongly influenced stability. Also, outboard stations primarily contributed to stability characteristics. Results demonstrate that changes in blade shape impact the calculated aerodynamic damping, indicating importance of using accurate blade operating shape under centrifugal and steady aerodynamic loading for flutter prediction. It was found that the calculated aerodynamic damping was relatively insensitive to variation in natural frequency.

Srivastava, R.↗

Theoretical studies of the infrared emission from circumstellar dust shells: the infrared characteristics of circumstellar silicates and the mass-loss rate of oxygen-rich late-type giants

We have modeled the infrared emission of spherically symmetric, circumstellar dust shells with the aim of deriving the infrared absorption properties of circumstellar silicate grains and the mass-loss rates of the central stars. As a basis for our numerical studies, a simple semianalytical formula has been derived that illustrates the essential characteristics of the infrared emission of such dust shells. A numerical radiative transfer program has been developed and applied to dust shells around oxygen-rich late-type giants. Free parameters in such models include the absorption properties and density distribution of the dust. An approximate, analytical expression is derived for the density distribution of circumstellar dust driven outward by radiation pressure from a central source. A large grid of models has been calculated to study the influence of the free parameters on the emergent spectrum. These results form the basis for a comparison with near-infrared observations. Observational studies have revealed a correlation between the near-infrared color temperature, Tc, and the strength of the 10 micrometers emission or absorption feature, A10. This relationship, which essentially measures the near-infrared optical depth in terms of the 10 micrometers optical depth, is discussed. Theoretical A10-Tc relations have been calculated and compared to the observations. The results show that this relation is a sensitive way to determine the ratio of the near-infrared to 10 micrometers absorption efficiency of circumstellar silicates. These results as well as previous studies show that the near-infrared absorption efficiency of circumstellar silicate grains is much higher than expected from terrestrial minerals. We suggest that this enhanced absorption is due to the presence of ferrous iron (Fe2+) color centers dissolved in the circumstellar silicates. By using the derived value for the ratio of the near-infrared to 10 micrometers absorption efficiency, the observed A10-Tc relation can be calibrated in terms of the total dust column density of the circumstellar shell and thus the mass-loss rate of late-type giants can easily be derived. Detailed models have been made of the infrared emission of three well-studied Miras: R Cas, IRC 10011, and OH 26.5+0.6, with the emphasis on the shape of the 10 micrometers emission or absorption feature. The results show that the intrinsic shape of the 10 micrometers resonance varies from a very broad feature in R Cas to a relatively narrower feature in OH 26.5+0.6, with IRC 10011 somewhere in between. Possible origins of this variation are discussed. The mass-loss rates from these objects are calculated to be 3 x 10(-7), 2 x 10(-5), and 2 x 10(-4) M Sun yr-1 for R Cas, IRC 10011, and OH 26.5+0.6, respectively. These results are compared to other determinations in the literature.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

CFD Analysis of Nozzle Jet Plume Effects on Sonic Boom Signature

An axisymmetric full Navier-Stokes computational fluid dynamics study is conducted to examine nozzle exhaust jet plume effects on the sonic boom signature of a supersonic aircraft. A simplified axisymmetric nozzle geometry, representative of the nozzle on the NASA Dryden NF-15B Lift and Nozzle Change Effects on Tail Shock research airplane, is considered. The computational fluid dynamics code is validated using available wind-tunnel sonic boom experimental data. The effects of grid size, spatial order of accuracy, grid type, and flow viscosity on the accuracy of the predicted sonic boom pressure signature are quantified. Grid lines parallel to the Mach wave direction are found to give the best results. Second-order accurate upwind methods are required as a minimum for accurate sonic boom simulations. The highly underexpanded nozzle flow is found to provide significantly more reduction in the tail shock strength in the sonic boom N-wave pressure signature than perfectly expanded and overexpanded nozzle flows. A tail shock train in the sonic boom signature is observed for the highly underexpanded nozzle flow. Axisymmetric computational fluid dynamics simulations show the flow physics inside the F-15 nozzle to be nonisentropic and complex. Although the one-dimensional isentropic nozzle plume results look reasonable, they fail to capture the sonic boom shock train in the highly underexpanded nozzle flow.

Bui, Trong T.↗

CFD Analysis of Nozzle Jet Plume Effects on Sonic Boom Signature

A computational fluid dynamics study is conducted to examine nozzle exhaust jet plume effects on the Sonic boom signature of a supersonic aircraft. A simplified axisymmetric nozzle geometry, representative of the nozzle on the NASA Dryden NF-15B Lift and Nozzle Change Effects on Tail Shock research airplane, is considered. The computational fluid dynamics code is validated using available wind-tunnel sonic boom experimental data. The effects of grid size, spatial order of accuracy. grid type, and flow viscosity on the accuracy of the predicted sonic boom pressure signature are quantified. Grid lines parallel to the Mach wave direction are found to give the best results. Second-order accurate upwind methods are required as a minimum for accurate sonic boom simulations. The highly underexpanded nozzle flow is found to provide significantly more reduction in the tail shock strength in the sonic boom N-wave pressure signature than perfectly expanded and overexpanded nozzle flows. A tail shock train in the sonic boom signature is observed for the highly underexpanded nozzle flow. Axisymmetric computational fluid dynamics simulations show the flow physics inside the F-15 nozzle to be nonisentropic and complex.

Bui, Trong T.↗

Customer enrollment and participation in building demand management programs: A review of key factors

Increasing the efficiency and flexibility of electricity demand is necessary for ensuring a cost-effective and reliable transition to zero-carbon electricity systems. Such demand-side management (DSM) resources have been procured by utilities for decades via energy efficiency and demand response programs; however, the key drivers of program enrollment and customer participation levels remain poorly understood — even as governments and grid planners seek to scale up the deployment of DSM assets to meet climate targets. Here we systematically review the evidence on multiple factors that may influence customer enrollment and participation in building DSM programs, focusing primarily on residential and commercial buildings. We examine the contexts in which relationships between DSM factors and outcomes are most often explored and with which methods; we also score the strength, direction, and internal consistency of each factor's reported impact on the enrollment and participation outcomes. We find that studies most commonly assess the effects of economic incentives for load flexibility on program participation levels, often using simulation-based methods in lieu of measured data. Few studies focus on program enrollment outcomes or regulatory drivers of either enrollment or participation, and gaps are also evident in the coverage of emerging DSM opportunities like load electrification. Removal of structural barriers (e.g., the lack of controls infrastructure) and the use of third party services (e.g., load aggregators) are the factors with the largest positive impacts on DSM outcomes, but no single factor emerges as clearly most impactful. For a given factor, the range of reported impacts typically varies widely across the relevant studies reviewed. Our findings provide a snapshot of the state of knowledge about building DSM and customer decision-making, and they expose key gaps in understanding that must be filled if building DSM is to expand as a critical resource for operating clean power grids.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Source Term Model for an Array of Vortex Generator Vanes

A source term model was developed for numerical simulations of an array of vortex generators. The source term models the side force created by a vortex generator being modeled. The model is obtained by introducing a side force to the momentum and energy equations that can adjust its strength automatically based on a local flow. The model was tested and calibrated by comparing data from numerical simulations and experiments of a single low-profile vortex generator vane, which is only a fraction of the boundary layer thickness, over a flat plate. The source term model allowed a grid reduction of about seventy percent when compared with the numerical simulations performed on a fully gridded vortex generator without adversely affecting the development and capture of the vortex created. The source term model was able to predict the shape and size of the stream wise vorticity and velocity contours very well when compared with both numerical simulations and experimental data.

Buning, P. G.↗

Geometric concepts for stellarator permanent magnet arrays

The development of stellarators that use permanent magnet arrays to shape their confining magnetic fields has been a topic of recent interest, but the requirements for how such magnets must be shaped, manufactured, and assembled remain to be determined. To address these open questions, we have performed a study of geometric concepts for magnet arrays with the aid of the newly developed MAGPIE code. A proposed experiment similar to the National Compact Stellarator Experiment (NCSX) is used as a test case. Here, two classes of magnet geometry are explored: curved bricks that conform to a regular grid in cylindrical coordinates, and hexahedra that conform to the toroidal plasma geometry. In addition, we test constraints on the magnet polarization. While magnet configurations constrained to be polarized normally to a toroidal surface around the plasma are unable to meet the required magnetic field parameters when subject to physical limitations on the strength of present-day magnets, configurations with unconstrained polarizations are shown to satisfy the physics requirements for a targeted plasma.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Geometric concepts for stellarator permanent magnet arrays

The development of stellarators that use permanent magnet arrays to shape their confining magnetic fields has been a topic of recent interest, but the requirements for how such magnets must be shaped, manufactured, and assembled remain to be determined. To address these open questions, we have performed a study of geometric concepts for magnet arrays with the aid of the newly developed MAGPIE code. A proposed experiment similar to the National Compact Stellarator Experiment (NCSX) is used as a test case. Two classes of magnet geometry are explored: curved bricks that conform to a regular grid in cylindrical coordinates, and hexahedra that conform to the toroidal plasma geometry. In addition, we test constraints on the magnet polarization. While magnet configurations constrained to be polarized normally to a toroidal surface around the plasma are unable to meet the required magnetic field parameters when subject to physical limitations on the strength of present-day magnets, configurations with unconstrained polarizations are shown to satisfy the physics requirements for a targeted plasma.

stellarator, permanent magnet, optimization↗

Metal-Supported Solid Oxide Fuel Cells for Natural Gas

Solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) are high temperature energy conversion devices that produce electricity efficiently and sustainably. High operating temperatures required for SOFC function endow these devices with many advantages including fuel flexibility and high conversion efficiencies. Fuel flexibility, in particular, distinguishes SOFCs from other types of fuel cells that operate with clean H 2 only, and enables operation with natural gas (NG). LBNL has developed metal supported SOFCs (MS-SOFCs) with unique symmetrical architecture that offer several advantages over state of the art (SoA) ceramic SOFC models including inexpensive materials, rapid start up capability, increased mechanical strength and high tolerance to thermal cycling, Fig 1. These advantages make LBNL MS-SOFCs uniquely suited for fast start-up, portable, and mobile backup generator applications. Specifically motivating this work was a scenario of backup generators fueled by pipeline natural gas delivered from SoCalGas in the event of an electric grid shut down. This project investigates the feasibility of using MS-SOFCs with pre-reformed natural gas as well as direct on-cell reforming of simulated natural gas both with and without sulfur.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

An Efficient Area-Based Algorithm for SAR Radiometric Terrain Correction and Map Projection

This article presents a projection algorithm based on the representation of radar samples as area elements, rather than point elements as traditionally done in previous works. Each area element in the geographic grid (geogrid) is associated with a set of samples in the radar grid that intersect completely or partially the area element according to the topography and the radar geometry. Accurate geocoding with adaptive multi-looking is achieved by successively assigning the weighted average of the radar samples to the corresponding geogrid elements. Analogously, the slant-range projection of geocoded data is improved by projecting the geogrid pixels onto the radar grid according to their projected area. When our slant-range projection approach is used within previously-published radiometric terrain correction (RTC) algorithms, the processing time is significantly reduced, performing 3.6 to 5.2 times faster over multi-looked data and up to 8.9 over single-look data. We demonstrate the strength of the area projection algorithm for RTC and geocoding using UAVSAR and Sentinel-1 data, and evaluate the results in the context of the upcoming NISAR mission.

Shiroma, Gustavo H↗

Comparison of TRMM and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Precipitation Analyses

This paper describes recent results of using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) (launched in November 1997) information as the key calibration tool in a merged analysis on a 1 x 1' latitude/longitude monthly scale based on multiple satellite sources and raingauge analyses. The TRMM-based product is compared with the community-based Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) results. The long-term GPCP analysis is compared to the new TRMM-based analysis which uses the most accurate TRMM information to calibrate the estimates from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and geosynchronous IR observations and merges those estimates together with the TRMM and gauge information to produce accurate rainfall estimates with the increased sampling provided by the combined satellite information. The comparison with TRMM results on a month-to-month basis should clarify the strengths and weaknesses of the long-term GPCP product in the tropics and point to how to improve the monitoring analysis. Preliminary results from the TRMM merged satellite analysis indicates fairly close agreement with the GPCP estimates. The GPCP analysis is done at 2.5 degree latitude/longitude resolution and interpolated to a 1 degree grid for comparison with the TRMM analysis. As expected the same features are evident in both panels, but there are subtle differences in the magnitudes. Focusing on the Pacific Ocean Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) one can see the TRMM-based estimates having higher peak values and lower values in the ITCZ periphery. These attributes also show up in the statistics, where GPCP>TRMM at low values (below 10 mm/d) and TRMM>GPCP at high values (greater than 15 mm/d). The area in the Indian Ocean which shows consistently higher values of TRMM over GPCP needs to be examined carefully to determine if the lack of geosynchronous data has led to a difference in the two analyses. By the time of the meeting over a year of TRMM products will be available for comparison. Global tropical and regional values will be compared. Both products will be compared to TRMM validation site data over land and water. The results should begin to determine the use of the TRMM estimates in the evaluation of the GPCP analysis.

Adler, Robert F.↗

Impact of Pulsar and Fallback Sources on Multifrequency Kilonova Models

We explore the impact of pulsar electromagnetic dipole and fallback accretion emission on the luminosity of a suite of kilonova models. The pulsar models are varied over pulsar magnetic field strength, pulsar lifetime, ejecta mass, and elemental abundances; the fallback models are varied over fallback accretion rate and ejecta mass. For the abundances, we use Fe and Nd as representatives of the wind and dynamical ejecta, respectively. We simulate radiative transfer in the ejecta in either 1D spherical or 2D cylindrical spatial geometry. For the grid of 1D simulations, the mass fraction of Nd is 0, 10 –4 , or 10 –3 , and the rest is Fe. Our models that fit the bolometric luminosity of AT 2017gfo (the kilonova associated with the first neutron star merger discovered in gravitational waves, GW170817) do not simultaneously fit the B , V , and I time evolution. Here, we find that the trends of the evolution in B and V magnitudes are better matched by the fallback model relative to the pulsar model, implying the time-dependence of the remnant source influences the color evolution. Further exploration of the parameter space and model deficiencies is needed before we can describe AT 2017gfo with a remnant source.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗