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DOE OSTI2022

Essential Function Analysis Capability

The Essential Function Analysis Capability (EFAC) is an extension of the All Hazards Knowledge Framework (AHA) and is a dynamic analytical framework that enables critical infrastructure knowledge discovery and decision support across the five mission areas – prevention, protection, mitigation, response and recovery. EFAC provides the ability to store and model infrastructure systems as a linked multigraphs providing an intuitive and natural representation. These infrastructure systems can then be tied to the organizational and essential function breakdown of an entity. This capability provides the foundation to rapidly evaluate and understand the potential consequences of manmade and natural disaster on these infrastructure systems and essential functions.

Hoover, MichaelJ.↗

DOE OSTI2024

ECAR-6440 Rev 2 MARVEL Hazard Evaluation

This hazard evaluation supports the Microreactor Applications Research, Validation, and Evaluation (MARVEL) Project’s design effort and the development of the preliminary documented safety analysis (PDSA) (addendum to safety analysis report [SAR]-420, “Transient Reactor Test [TREAT] Facility FSAR”) (SAR-420-ADD-1). The hazard evaluation process for the MARVEL project for compliance with the requirements in 10 CFR 830, “Nuclear Safety Management,” follows a process similar to the Licensing Modernization Project (LMP) as outlined in Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI)-18-04, “Risk-Informed Performance-Based Guidance for Non-Light Water Reactor Licensing Basis Development,” and supporting documents. The LMP process is adapted to fit Department of Energy (DOE) reactor regulatory requirements as applicable and appropriate using a graded approach based on the MARVEL microreactor design. This approach provides reasonable assurance of meeting the requirements of 10 CFR 830 for protection of the public, workers, and environment.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

DOE OSTI2021

Towards standardized nuclear reactors: Seismic isolation and the cost impact of the earthquake load case

We report nuclear energy has a key role to play in global decarbonization. Impediments to the widespread deployment of reactors are their projected high capital cost and levelized cost of energy, and time required to analyze, design, license, construct, and commission them. The earthquake load case is a key cost driver for a new build nuclear plant, because near-surface soils and seismic hazard are different at each site, requiring site-specific analysis, design, engineering, qualification, licensing, and regulatory review, essentially making every design First-of-a-Kind (FoaK). To enable deployment at the scale needed for deep decarbonization, the cost and time impact of the seismic load case must be significantly mitigated, and plants must be standardized. Seismic base isolation has been proven to considerably reduce the earthquake response of structures and equipment but has yet to be applied to a nuclear power plant in the United States, in part because the financial impacts, positive or negative, are not known. Because there are no recent non-proprietary data to characterize the influence of the seismic load case on capital cost, it is difficult to confidently quantify the financial benefits of seismic isolation. Scheme-level designs of two fundamentally different advanced reactor buildings were developed to assemble cost data on the influence of the seismic load case. Both buildings were equipped with three bespoke pieces of safety-related equipment and analyzed for incremented levels of earthquake shaking to quantify the seismic penalty on equipment, in terms of vessel weights and horizontal accelerations. Using analysis results, a questionnaire was developed and transmitted to nuclear utilities, reactor developers, engineers, and equipment suppliers to collect cost data on engineering and fabrication costs for these unique pieces of safety-class equipment. Synthesis of the cost data showed that the seismic load case significantly affects the capital cost (sum of engineering and fabrication cost) of safety-class equipment, with engineering costs being comparable to fabrication costs. Standardization of safety-class equipment is made possible by seismic isolation, that is, equipment designed for minimal seismic robustness can resist earthquake shaking at a site of much higher seismic hazard. The average reduction in the capital cost of the safety-related equipment, enabled by seismic isolation, is a factor of two for FoaK equipment and a factor of five for standardized equipment.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Feature Engineering and Process Mining to Enable Hazard Detection in Health Information Technology

Motivation for this work originates from a recognized need for developing data-driven approaches through analysis of complex electronic health records. Specifically, we aim to enhance the reliability of health information technology (HIT) systems by detection of plausible HIT hazards in clinical order transactions. In the absence of well-defined event logs in corporate data warehouses, our proposed approach identifies relevant timestamped data fields that could indicate transactions in the clinical order life cycle generating raw event sequences. Subsequently, we adopt state transitions of the OASIS Human Task standard to map the raw event sequences and simplify the complex process that clinical radiology orders go through. We describe how the current approach provides the potential to investigate areas of improvement and potential hazards in HIT systems. The discussion concludes with a use case and opportunities for future applications.

Ozmen, Ozgur↗

DOE OSTI2024

Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Project: Bainbridge Island, Washington: Cohort 2 Technical Assistance: Improving Resilience

The City of Bainbridge Island (COBI) applied for and received technical assistance from the Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Program (ETIPP) in part to achieve their goal of 100% renewable electricity generation by 2040, five years ahead of the Washington State goal. Their second goal of increasing energy resilience is discussed in this report. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) completed the technical analysis aspects of the project, supported by the community partner Spark Northwest and the program administrator, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). PNNL worked with the Community Lead and stakeholders to ensure selection of hazards and energy infrastructure of highest priority and integration of existing expertise into the analysis. We have also worked to align analysis with current activities conducted by Puget Sound Energy (PSE), and other efforts within the Bainbridge Island community around resilience. This report, conducted under the ETIPP project in partnership with COBI, aims to build on this existing knowledge base with a specific energy focus, to identify hazards and threats to critical energy infrastructure, summarize the risk, and identify and analyze remaining resilience gaps.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Aberrant FBXW7-mediated ubiquitination and degradation of ZMYND8 enhances tumor progression and stemness in bladder cancer

ZMYND8, an epigenetic regulator, was identified as a common oncogene across various tumors. However, little was reported about the association between ZMYND8 and bladder cancer. Besides, aberrant mechanisms that contribute to abnormal ZMYND8 expressions still remain unclear. In the current study, we first found that ZMYND8 protein levels were significantly elevated in Bca samples versus normal tissues, but not the mRNA levels. We then utilized the Cell Counting Kit-8 (CCK-8) assay, clone formation assay and transwell analysis to confirm that ZMYND8 could remarkably promote the tumor progression in vitro, including growth capacity and migration. Bioinformatic predictive analysis revealed that E3 ubiquitin ligase FBXW7 interacts directly with ZMYND8 and degrades ZMYND8 in a polyubiquitination manner. Low FBXW7 was a hazard factor for promoting and depending on accumulated ZMYND8 proteins to promote Bca progression. Gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) further indicated that ZMYND8 was notably associated with stemness process, which was well functionally validated. Lastly, ZMYND8 deficiency was observed to inhibit tumor growth of Bca in vivo, revealing a promising translational significance in Bca treatment. In conclusion, our study for the first time provided evidence for a novel mechanism of FBXW7/ZMYND8 axis in Bca, providing therapeutic vulnerability for individualized cancer treatment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity Analysis of Sediment Coagulations in the Chesapeake Bay

Hydrodynamic models are utilized for fast response to environmental hazards. However, limitations within the models may inhibit their accuracy. A three-dimensional aqueous transport model, ALGE, was developed at the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) as a tool for pollutant dispersion. Recently at SRNL, the capability to account for coagulation and break-up of particles to better account for the fate and transport of materials. A sensitivity analysis was performed to determine a threshold for specified particle parameters that still yield accurate results. Dictating these thresholds advances the development of ALGE to become a product for efficient emergency response.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessing thermal resilience of an assisted living facility during heat waves and cold snaps with power outages

Extreme hot and cold weather events are becoming more frequent, intense, and longer due to climate change. When these events occur coincidentally with power outages, the resulting extreme indoor temperatures pose a severe health hazard for occupants. This study conducted a holistic modeling and analysis of an assisted living facility, where senior residents live, to assess its thermal resilience performance under a six-day heat wave in 2015 and a three-day cold snap in 2021 with power outages. Impacts of 13 energy efficiency measures on thermal resilience and backup power capacity of the facility were evaluated. Three thermal resilience metrics: the SET (standard effective temperature) degree-hours, the Heat Index, and the Hours of Safety, were used and calculated from the EnergyPlus simulation models. Furthermore, major findings are: (1) the facility would suffer from extreme temperatures during the cold and hot events without a power supply, not meeting the passive survivability requirements; (2) most passive envelope measures improve thermal resilience for both hot and cold events, but making the building envelope airtight results in conflicting performance between the hot and cold events; (3) natural ventilation is an effective measure to mitigate summer indoor overheating; and (4) the energy efficiency package can reduce backup power capacity by 19% for the three-day cold snap. It is recommended that building technologies and design strategies be evaluated to consider co-benefits of energy use, thermal resilience, and backup power needs through building energy codes or policies for existing and new buildings, which are transitioning for decarbonization and climate resilience.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Mitigating Injection‐Induced Seismicity Along Basement Faults by Extraction: Application to 2016–2018 Pohang Earthquakes

Abstract The risk of induced earthquake is considered as the major obstacle for sustainable subsurface energy activities. As a mitigation approach, mechanistic risk assessment can be essential to minimize the potential of seismic hazard. Coupled hydro‐mechanical modeling approach is integrated with geomechanical analysis to better assess the occurrence of seismicity induced by injection and/or extraction, which will provide a basis to update operational conditions (e.g., number and location of mitigating wells, rate and duration of operations) for mitigating earthquake nucleation. The Coulomb stability analysis and seismicity rate estimates from this generic study indicate that simultaneous extraction can relieve injection‐induced pore‐pressure buildup, but also transfer and accumulate elastic energy along the faults. Field‐scale simulation with variation in well design for the Pohang EGS site, South Korea, show that multiple wells aligned across a preexisting fault form gradients of pressure and stress fields normal to the fault, which can enhance the direct impact of diffusion process and poroelastic stressing on the fault stability perturbation. Our mechanistic study suggests multiphysics‐oriented mitigation strategies that consider (1) possible mechanical deformation, caused by hydro‐mechanical coupling effects, and (2) proper configuration of well operations based on site‐specific geological characteristics.

Chang, K. W.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Application of quantitative risk assessment to address stakeholder questions in geologic carbon storage

Ambitious international greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets demand a rapid transformation to a low-carbon economy. This transformation includes the accelerated adoption of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) technology. However, as with any large-scale engineering enterprise, the widespread commercial-scale deployment of geologic carbon storage (GCS) raises important questions about technology and cost-effectiveness, safety, environmental risk, and long-term liability. Effectively assessing and managing risks and liability associated with GCS projects is a key technical need throughout the project life cycle-from site selection and permitting to monitoring design, operational risk management, and post-operational site closure. This presentation highlights recent advancements in tools for quantitative risk assessment, being developed by the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). NRAP is a multi-year, multinational laboratory research collaboration sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management. Our focus will be on these tools' applications in addressing critical stakeholder questions related to supporting permitting to ensure secure and environmentally protective storage; designing effective and efficient monitoring plans; evaluating the effectiveness of remedial actions and risk management alternatives; and informing liability assessment and investment decisions. This paper will detail the key functionality of NRAP’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM), a computational framework for assessing leakage risk and containment assurance. This model features streamlined workflows for calculating leakage risk profiles, delineating risk-based area of review, and assessing contingency plans and post-injection site care requirements. ORION is an open-source, observation-based ensemble forecasting toolkit to help operators assess the seismic hazard at a carbon storage site. The State of Stress Analysis Tool (SOSAT), designed to assess subsurface stress conditions and evaluate geomechanical risk resulting from CO2 injection in an area of interest will also be presented. We will also introduce a prototype model to evaluate storage project costs and liability associated with risk management. The Technoeconomic and Liability Evaluation for Storage (TALES) model uses results from forecasts of leakage and induced seismicity risk to estimate the lifecycle cost of managing risk. Finally, a preliminary example of how the NRAP Risk-based Adaptive Monitoring Plan (RAMP) tool can be used to design efficient and effective site monitoring plans and estimate the detectability of fluid leakage will be provided. The relevance of these tools for addressing key stakeholder questions amidst uncertainty will be emphasized.

decision support↗

DOE OSTI2021

Reduction in total and major cause-specific mortality from tobacco smoking cessation: a pooled analysis of 16 population-based cohort studies in Asia

Little is known about the time course of mortality reduction following smoking cessation in Asians who have smoking behaviours distinct from their Western counterparts. We evaluated the level of reduction in all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and lung cancer mortality by years since quitting smoking, in Asia. Using Cox regression, we analysed individual participant data (n = 709 151) from 16 prospective cohorts conducted in China, Japan, Korea/Singapore, and India/Bangladesh, separately by cohorts. Cohort-specific hazard ratios (HRs) were combined using a random-effects meta-analysis. During a mean follow-up of 12.0 years, 108 287 deaths were ascertained—35 658 from CVD and 7546 from lung cancer. Among Asian men, a dose-response relationship of risk reduction in deaths from all causes, CVD and lung cancer was observed with an increase in years after smoking cessation. Compared with never smokers, however, all-cause and CVD mortality among former smokers remained elevated 10–14 years after quitting [multivariable-adjusted HR (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.25 (1.13–1.37) and 1.20 (1.02–1.41), respectively]. Lung cancer mortality stayed almost 2-fold higher than among never smokers 15–19 years after smoking cessation [1.97 (1.41–2.73)], particularly among former heavy smokers [2.62 (1.71–4.00)]. Women who quitted for ≥5 years retained a significantly elevated mortality from all causes, CVD and lung cancer. Overall patterns of the cessation-mortality associations were similar across countries. Our findings suggest that adverse effects of tobacco smoking persist for an extended time period, even for more than two decades, which is beyond the time windows defined in current clinical guidelines for risk assessment of lung cancer and CVD.

Public, Environmental & Occupational Health↗

DOE OSTI2021

Experimental and theoretical analysis of carbon driven detonation waves in a heterogeneously premixed Rotating Detonation Engine

Coal dust explosions can be hazardous; however, they can also generate a significant rise in stagnation pressure if adequately harnessed. Rotating detonation combustors seek to take advantage of the stagnation pressure rise phenomenon in a more sustained and controlled manner via confinement to a physical annulus, leading to increased overall thermodynamic efficiency. Here this investigation presents an analysis of detonations fueled by Carbon Black, a solid particulate consisting of virtually pure carbon molecules and lean Hydrogen-Air mixtures. It is realized that with the addition of Carbon Black, an increase of lean mixture detonability and detonation velocities extending the operating limit over that of a pure hydrogen-air mixture is experienced. For all testing conditions, the total equivalence ratio is held at φ = 1, while the fuel mixture's carbon mass fraction is increased from 0 to 0.7 while the hydrogen is decreased. Detonation wave velocities are extracted from high-speed imaging through applying a Discrete Fourier Transform algorithm to determine changes to the wave speed as Carbon Black particles are introduced. As a result, due to the addition of Carbon Black as an auxiliary fuel source, detonations were formed instead of deflagrations in operating conditions where one would expect deflagrations at the same hydrogen-air equivalence ratios without Carbon Black addition. The detonation formation provides evidence that the coal particles are reacting within the detonation wave in a large enough capacity to support a detonation wave within the annulus. Furthermore, the wave speed is shown to increase with the additional of carbon particles. At a constant global equivalence ratio, the detonation wave velocities were found to decrease with hydrogen's incremental replacement with coal particles. Whereby, through a theoretical comparison of the heat of combustion as computed from the experimentally derived detonation wave velocities, a linear relationship of the two was shown to exist. Therefore, the heat of combustion has the potential to describe an operational limit to sustaining a detonation wave.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Knowledge-Based Hazardous Waste Determinations for Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Modules: A Foundational Study

This report explores using "generator knowledge" to determine whether a solar photovoltaic (PV) module must be managed as hazardous waste prior to recycling or landfilling. Generator knowledge is a legal term and existing regulatory pathway for making a hazardous waste determination that has been used by other industries but is a relatively unknown option to the PV industry. In the United States, a hazardous waste determination often acts as a pre-requisite to recycle or landfill a PV module. The results of the hazardous waste determination dictate whether the PV module must be managed as hazardous waste or nonhazardous solid waste. Managing a PV module as hazardous waste requires compliance with stringent U.S. federal and state hazardous waste law. In addition to increased management costs, which can be ten times higher, legal liability for PV modules regulated as hazardous waste is also heightened with both civil and criminal penalties for noncompliance which includes making an inaccurate or faulty hazardous waste determination. The most common reason a PV module would be regulated as hazardous is if it contains a regulated metal in an amount that equals or exceeds the toxicity characteristic limits. To determine whether a PV module exhibits a hazardous characteristic, the regulated person/entity must "apply knowledge...in light of the materials and processes used." In the absence of adequate knowledge to determine whether the PV module is hazardous, it must be tested using Test Method 1311 Toxicity Characteristic Leaching Procedure (TCLP) or an equivalent EPA-approved method. Although TCLP is the predominant method used to today to make a hazardous waste determination for PV modules, evidence from this study concludes it is not practical to TCLP test every PV module even in a single utility-scale installation, and a scalable solution is needed. This study finds that knowledge-based hazardous waste determinations may allow a regulated person/entity to make a hazardous waste determination for more than one PV module at one time - making this regulatory pathway a potential scalable solution. Through legal analysis and interviews with 44 experts, the authors explore what it means to make an accurate knowledge-based hazardous determination for PV modules considering sources and forms of information as well as potential limitations. The work aims to provide a foundation for building consensus on whether knowledge-based hazardous determinations are a viable, scalable industry approach for solar.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Extreme flood return levels in a U.S. mid-Atlantic estuary using 40-year fluvial-coastal model simulations

Using an integrated watershed-coastal modeling framework, we conducted long-term historical simulations (1980-2019) of fluvial and coastal flooding in the Delaware Bay and River, a vulnerable estuarine system in the U.S., at high spatial resolutions. By applying process-based models, we generated physically consistent and spatially detailed estimates of estuarine, riverine, and surge-driven extreme water level compared to previous studies that used field data only. We then evaluated changes in the magnitude of flood events using the 40-year simulations and detrended Floodwater Depth values with stationary extreme value analysis. Our detailed assessment of spatial-varying extreme values revealed how different flood-generation mechanisms can dominate various zones in the estuary. The datasets produced through this work will be valuable for long-term flood hazard mitigation planning in coastal communities in the Delaware Bay and River region. Additionally, this work will serve as a benchmark for other coastal flood hazard modeling communities worldwide, aiding them in systematically modeling long-term and continuous extreme flood events.

Coastal and Riverine Flooding↗

DOE OSTI2024

Designing Remote Monitoring for Smart Manufacturing Facilities: Hazard Identification and Classification

This study investigates the process of hazard identification in complex manufacturing environments during the design phase, emphasizing the significance of the design process in developing designs that effectively mitigate hazards in contexts with numerous variables, such as a variety of machines, sensors, actuators, and agents. Through a mixed-methods approach, the objective of this work is to understand how the evolution of design outcomes across various stages might influence a designer’s ability to recognize both standard and novel hazards. To achieve this understanding, an experimental design task was conducted with six designers from a national lab specializing in manufacturing technologies. This approach combined qualitative and quantitative data analysis from a one-hour virtual session with participants. Findings suggest that the complexity of identifying hazards in a high-dimensional design space is challenging within a limited time frame and that the identification of hazards is significantly influenced by the stage of the design task and the initial design decisions, indicating the need for extended time and strategic initial planning in the design process to enhance hazard identification.

Ballestas, Caseysimone↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hazard-Based Model of Activity Generation Using Vehicle Trajectory Data

Travel behavior modeling suffers from lack of longitudinal data due to the high cost of procurement and difficulty with ensuring data quality. In the recent years ubiquitous data intercepted from social media, cell detail record, GPS traces are increasingly being explored to analyze human mobility. However, these data lack key demographic information which limits their use for developing causal models of traveler behavior. The primary contribution of the paper lies in using vehicle trajectory data from Ann Arbor along with multiple other data sources for developing a hazard-based activity generation model. The different category of data used in the analysis include (i) vehicle trajectory data (VTD), (ii) American Census Survey (ACS), (iii) land use data, (iv) household travel survey (HTS) data, and (v) smart location data from Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Home and work are identified as the two most frequently visited locations from the VTD and validated against land use categories of the region. Next a random utility-based model is developed using HTS data to identify other activity purposes as a function of the polynomials of distance from home, activity duration and departure time. The developed model is then applied to identify the non-home activity purposes in the VTD. Demographic and accessibility information are appended to the VTD from ACS and smart location databases respectively. The fmal database is then used to develop a hazard-based activity generation model. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

activity generation↗

DOE OSTI2022

Monitoring Seasonal Shear Wave Velocity Changes in the Top 6 m at Garner Valley in Southern California With Borehole Data

Abstract Subsurface structures play important roles in seismic ground motion, crustal hydrology, stability of the built environment, and more. Constraining temporal changes of subsurface shear wave velocity ( V S ) can provide useful information to all these topics and the growing field of hydrological monitoring with seismic velocity. Using borehole records at Garner Valley, CA, we estimate seasonal subsurface V S variations from impulse response functions (IRFs) of earthquake data (2005–2018) along with IRFs and cross‐correlation of cross‐hole experiment data (2015–2018). The inferred V S variations are up to ∼25% in the top 6 m and ∼10% at 2–5 m in depth. The V S variations correlate strongly with the water table depth changes, suggesting that the changes are mostly due to fluctuations of pore pressure in the shallow material. The shallow velocity changes alter the near‐surface conditions, can affect seismic hazard estimation, and may be improperly attributed to deeper processes without careful analysis.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Ocean & Geohazard Analysis Tool

The Ocean & Geohazard Analysis (OGA) software tool is designed to summarize insights into key offshore hazards drawing from a diverse set of approaches, including artificial intelligence, machine learning, probabilistic and statistical, and offshore data sources. The offshore hazards that can be analyzed include submarine landslides, extreme wind/wave/current event probabilities, earthquakes, and metocean pathways (CIAM Climatological Isolation and Attraction Model–Climatological Lagrangian Coherent Structures - Submissions - EDX (doe.gov)). Currently, the tool is developed for use in the Gulf of Mexico. The data underlying the offshore hazard analyses can be found here: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/gulf-of-mexico-risk-analysis-database-gomrad This work was conducted under the Advanced Offshore Research Portfolio, FWP Number 1022409 at National Energy Technology Laboratory, U.S. Dept. of Energy. Disclaimer This project was funded by the United States Department of Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory, in part, through a site support contract. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, nor the support contractor, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof.

AIML↗