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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2010

Warm Season Subseasonal Variability and Climate Extremes in the Northern Hemisphere: The Role of Stationary Rossby Waves

This study examines the nature of boreal summer subseasonal atmospheric variability based on the new NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) for the period 1979-2010. An analysis of the June, July and August subseasonal 250hPa v-wind anomalies shows distinct Rossby wave-like structures that appear to be guided by the mean jets. On monthly subseasonal time scales, the leading waves (the first 10 rotated empirical orthogonal functions or REOFs of the 250hPa v-wind) explain about 50% of the Northern Hemisphere vwind variability, and account for more than 30% (60%) of the precipitation (surface temperature) variability over a number of regions of the northern middle and high latitudes, including the U.S. northern Great Plains, parts of Canada, Europe, and Russia. The first REOF in particular, consists of a Rossby wave that extends across northern Eurasia where it is a dominant contributor to monthly surface temperature and precipitation variability, and played an important role in the 2003 European and 2010 Russian heat waves. While primarily subseasonal in nature, the Rossby waves can at times have a substantial seasonal mean component. This is exemplified by REOF 4 which played a major role in the development of the most intense anomalies of the U.S. 1988 drought (during June) and the 1993 flooding (during July), though differed in the latter event by also making an important contribution to the seasonal mean anomalies. A stationary wave model (SWM) is used to reproduce some of the basic features of the observed waves and provide insight into the nature of the forcing. In particular, the responses to a set of idealized forcing functions are used to map the optimal forcing patterns of the leading waves. Also, experiments to reproduce the observed waves with the SWM using MERRA-based estimates of the forcing indicate that the wave forcing is dominated by sub-monthly vorticity transients.

Schubert, Siegfried↗
NASA NTRS2017

Chapter 8: Droughts, Floods, and Wildfires

Recent droughts and associated heat waves have reached record intensity in some regions of the United States; however, by geographical scale and duration, the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s remains the benchmark drought and extreme heat event in the historical record (very high confidence). While by some measures drought has decreased over much of the continental United States in association with long-term increases in precipitation, neither the precipitation increases nor inferred drought decreases have been confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing. The human effect on recent major U.S. droughts is complicated. Little evidence is found for a human influence on observed precipitation deficits, but much evidence is found for a human influence on surface soil moisture deficits due to increased evapotranspiration caused by higher temperatures. Future decreases in surface (top 10 cm) soil moisture from anthropogenic forcing over most of the United States are likely as the climate warms under higher scenarios. Substantial reductions in western U.S. winter and spring snowpack are projected as the climate warms. Earlier spring melt and reduced snow water equivalent have been formally attributed to human-induced warming (high confidence) and will very likely be exacerbated as the climate continues to warm (very high confidence). Under higher scenarios, and assuming no change to current water resources management, chronic, long-duration hydrological drought is increasingly possible by the end of this century. Detectable changes in some classes of flood frequency have occurred in parts of the United States and are a mix of increases and decreases. Extreme precipitation, one of the controlling factors in flood statistics, is observed to have generally increased and is projected to continue to do so across the United States in a warming atmosphere. However, formal attribution approaches have not established a significant connection of increased riverine flooding to human-induced climate change, and the timing of any emergence of a future detectable anthropogenic change in flooding is unclear. The incidence of large forest fires in the western United States and Alaska has increased since the early 1980s and is projected to further increase in those regions as the climate warms, with profound changes to certain ecosystems.

Wehner, M. F.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Global Observation of Planetary-Scale Waves in UARS HRDI and WINDII MLT Winds

The purpose of this study is to use examine planetary-scale motions in the UARS mesosphere and lower thermospheric data. The actual study was confined to HRDI winds and temperatures, since these observations were more continuous, and spanned the 60-120 km range. Three classes of waves were studied: fast equatorial Kelvin waves, nonmigrating tides, and the midlatitude 2-day wave. The purpose of the Kelvin wave and the 2-day wave studies was to test whether the waves significantly affect the mean flow. Such studies require high-quality spectral definitions in order to derive the wave heat and momentum flux divergence which can act in comination to drive the mean flow. Accordingly, HRDI winds from several special observing campaigns were used for analyses of fast (periods under 5 days) waves. The campaigns are characterized by continuous viewing by HRDI in 2 viewing directions, for periods of 10-12 days. Data sampled in this manner lend themselves quite well to "asynoptic spectral analysis", from which motions with periods as low as one day can be retrieved with relatively minimal aliasing.

Lieberman, Ruth↗
NASA NTRS1992

Alfven wave reflection and heating in coronal holes - Theory and observation

We present evidence for significant reflection of Alfven waves in an isothermal, hydrostatic model corona and that heating in coronal holes is provided by Alfven waves. For Alfven waves with periods of 5 min, upward propagating waves are reflected if the temperature is less than 10 exp 6 K, but escape into the solar wind if the temperature is greater than 10 exp 6 K. This sensitive temperature dependence may provide the self-limiting mechanism that has been suspected to exist because the reflected waves result in heating which raises the temperature which, in turn, decreases the reflection. The reflection occurs mostly inside of about 6 solar radii, depending on temperature, wave period, and magnetic field strength and geometry. The importance of this process has often been overlooked due to a poor choice of coronal Alfven speed and temperature. SOHO is well-suited to measure whether the required properties for reflection exist. Solar Probe, however, is the only definitive experiment to show if the waves actually exist to the degree necessary.

Suess, S. T.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Kinetic Modeling of Plasmaspheric Refilling

We have a new model of ion transport that we have applied to the problem of plasmaspheric flux tube refilling after a geomagnetic disturbance. Effects included are a time-varying ionospheric source, self-consistent Coulomb collisions, field-aligned electric field, and ion cyclotron wave heating. We see refilling rates similar to those of earlier observations and models, except when the electric field is included. In this case, the refilling rates are larger than previously predicted, yet still within the experimental limits. Wave interactions increase the trapped zone population and thus the density, especially during the few few hours of the refilling process. Results are compared with observations from DE/RIMS and Polar/TIDE, as well as hydrodynamic and kinetic particle model simulations.

Liemohn, M. W.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reduced viscosity steadily weakens oceanic currents

The viscosity of both air and water is temperature dependent. A rising temperature leads to an increased viscosity for air but a decreased viscosity for water. As climate becomes warmer, this increased air viscosity can partly inhibit the reduction of wind stress over the ocean, and the reduced water viscosity causes less downward momentum and heat transport. As these opposing effects of warming on air and water viscosity are not included in the state-of-the-art climate models, the understanding of their potential impacts on the response of the climate system to the anthropogenic warming is lacking. Here, via analyzing the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation oceanic reanalysis dataset, we show that the ocean heat content increases at a rate of ~1.3 × 10 22 J/yr over 35 years, which leads to a continuous reduction of oceanic viscosity. As a result, the ocean vertical shear enhances with a shoaling of the mixed layer depth and a reduced vertical linkage in the ocean. Our calculations show a reduction of the oceanic kinetic energy at a rate of ~2.4 × 10 16 J/yr. Potentially, this could generate far-reaching impacts on the energy storage of the climate system and, hence, could pace the global warming. Thus, it is important to include the temperature-dependent viscosity in our climate models. Freshwater discharged from polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers also contributes to the reduction in oceanic viscosity but, at present, to a lesser extent than that in oceanic warming. Reduced oceanic viscosity, therefore, is an important, but hitherto overlooked, response to a warming climate and contributes to many recent weather extremes including heavier rainfall rates in hurricanes, slackening of the polar vortex, and oceanic heat waves.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mechanisms Behind the 2020 Extreme Heat Across Siberia

During the first half of 2020, extreme heat persisted in Siberia; wildfires developed in the region as a result. Heat waves in this region have been linked with summertime stationary Rossby waves (Schubert et al. 2011; 2014), but specific mechanisms driving the 2020 event are unclear.

Heat↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dual Impacts of Space Heating Electrification and Climate Change Increase Uncertainties in Peak Load Behavior and Grid Capacity Requirements in Texas

Around 60% of households in Texas currently rely on electricity for space heating. As decarbonization efforts increase, non‐electrified households could adopt electric heat pumps, significantly increasing peak (highest) electricity demand in winter. Simultaneously, anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase temperatures, the potential for summer heat waves, and associated electricity demand for cooling. Uncertainty regarding the timing and magnitude of these concurrent changes raises questions about how they will jointly affect the seasonality of peak demand, firm capacity requirements, and grid reliability. This study investigates the net effects of residential space heating electrification and climate change on long‐term demand patterns and load shedding potential, using climate change projections, a predictive load model, and a direct current optimal power flow (DCOPF) model of the Texas grid. Results show that full electrification of residential space heating by replacing existing fossil fuel use with higher efficiency heat pumps could significantly improve reliability under hotter futures. Less efficient heat pumps may result in more severe winter peaking events and increased reliability risks. As heating electrification intensifies, system planners will need to balance the potential for greater resource adequacy risk caused by shifts in seasonal peaking behavior alongside the benefits (improved efficiency and reductions in emissions).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2004

Chondrites and the Protoplanetary Disk, Part 3

Contents include the following: Ca-, Al-Rich Inclusions and Ameoboid Olivine Aggregates: What We Know and Don t Know About Their Origin. Aluminium-26 and Oxygen Isotopic Distributions of Ca-Al-rich Inclusions from Acfer 214 CH Chondrite. The Trapping Efficiency of Helium in Fullerene and Its Implicatiion to the Planetary Science. Constraints on the Origin of Chondritic Components from Oxygen Isotopic Compositions. Role of Planetary Impacts in Thermal Processing of Chondrite Materials. Formation of the Melilite Mantle of the Type B1 CAIs: Flash Heating or Transport? The Iodine-Xenon System in Outer and Inner Portions of Chondrules from the Unnamed Antarctic LL3 Chondrite. Nucleosynthesis of Short-lived Radioactivities in Massive Stars. The Two-Fluid Analysis of the Kelvin-Helmholtz Instability in the Dust Layer of a Protoplanetary Disk: A Possible Path to the Planetesimal Formation Through the Gravitational Instability. Shock-Wave Heating Model for Chonodrule Formation: Heating Rate and Cooling Rate Constraints. Glycine Amide Hydrolysis with Water and OH Radical: A Comparative DFT Study. Micron-sized Sample Preparation for AFM and SEM. AFM, FE-SEM and Optical Imaging of a Shocked L/LL Chondrite: Implications for Martensite Formation and Wave Propagation. Infrared Spectroscopy of Chondrites and Their Components: A Link Between Meteoritics and Astronomy? Mid-Infrared Spectroscopy of CAI and Their Mineral Components. The Origin of Iron Isotope Fractionation in Chondrules, CAIs and Matrix from Allende (CV3) and Chainpur (LL3) Chondrites. Protoplanetary Disk Evolution: Early Results from Spitzer. Kinetics of Evaporation-Condensation in a Melt-Solid System and Its Role on the Chemical Composition and Evolution of Chondrules. Oxygen Isotope Exchange Recorded Within Anorthite Single Crystal in Vigarano CAI: Evidence for Remelting by High Temperature Process in the Solar Nebula. Chondrule Forming Shock Waves in Solar Nebula by X-Ray Flares. Organic Globules with Anormalous Nitrogen Isotopic Compositions in the Tagish Lake Meteorite: Products of Primitive Organic Reactions. Yet Another Chondrule Formation Scenario. CAIs are Not Supernova Condensates. Microcrystals and Amorphous Material in Comets and Primitive Meteorites: Keys to Understanding Processes in the Early Solar System. A Nearby Supernova Injected Short-lived Radionuclides into Our Protoplanetary Disk. REE+Y Systematics in CC and UOC Chondrules. Meteoritic Constraints on Temperatures, Pressures, Cooling Rates, Chemical Compositions, and Modes of Condensation in the Solar Nebula. The I-Xe Record of Long Equilibration in Chondrules from the Unnamed Antarctic Meteorite L3/LL3. Early Stellar Evolution.

Source record↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantifying Changes in Urban Albedo with NASA Earth Observations to Reduce the Urban Heat Island Effect in Cambridge, Massachusetts

Elevated temperatures resulting from the urban heat island (UHI) effect can have widespread impacts on human health, infrastructure, and ecosystems. These impacts can be exacerbated by changes in climate and extreme variation in regional temperature. By 2030, experts expect Cambridge, Massachusetts will experience warmer than average temperatures, more heat waves, and triple the number of abnormally warm days above 90°F per year. The NASA DEVELOP Program partnered with the City of Cambridge’s Community Development Department and the American Geophysical Union’s Thriving Earth Exchange to inform ongoing efforts aimed at reducing the impacts of urban heat in the city of Cambridge. The team used scenes obtained from High Resolution Orthoimagery and the National Agriculture Imagery Program in conjunction with building footprint data, to calculate rooftop albedo between 2008 and 2018. Using these results, maps displaying building-specific variation in albedo across Cambridge were created. A nighttime land surface temperature (LST) record for June, July, and August between 2003 and 2019 was constructed using the Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) nighttime LST product. Lastly, temperature anomalies were calculated for Cambridge using seasonally averaged nighttime LST values obtained from Aqua MODIS to display ‘hot spots’ for summers between 2004 and 2019. The results of this project were then incorporated into an interactive ArcGIS Dashboard. This work will allow end users to explore spatial and temporal trends in albedo, nighttime LST, and temperature anomalies to assess whether the City of Cambridge is successfully reducing the effects of UHIs.

NASA DEVELOP↗
NASA NTRS1997

Wave Driven Exothermic Heating in the Mesopause Region

A full-wave propagation model was developed that describes the propagation of gravity waves from the Earth's surface to the upper boundary, which can be placed anywhere between 150 and 500 km altitude. The model includes a realistic background atmosphere, and includes the effects of mean horizontal winds and their vertical shears, mean vertical temperature gradients, the eddy and molecular diffusion of heat and momentum, and the effects of ion-drag. This model solves five coupled second-order differential equations (continuity, momentum, and energy) in the vertical coordinate to derive the perturbation variables u', v', w' (horizontal and vertical velocity components), T' (temperature) and p' (pressure). The upper boundary can be automatically selected based on tests using the radiation condition at the upper boundary, wherein the height is increased until the wave is experiencing severe dissipation at the upper boundary, ensuring that substantial absorption occurs for any waves reflected from the upper boundary. The determination of wave amplitude is a key requirement of wave energetics. Therefore, the fullwave model has been applied to airglow observations in order to determine wave amplitudes as a function of altitude. This was accomplished by using the full-wave model output to drive a chemistry perturbation module that describes minor species perturbations and the resulting airglow perturbations. The full-wave output was multiplied by an altitude-independent factor such that the modeled and observed relative airglow intensity perturbations were equal. The effects of mean winds were included in these studies, and found to be the most important model input affecting the calculations (being more important than the choice of eddy diffusion profiles and chemical kinetic coefficients). In one study (Hickey et al., 1997a) these winds could not be well estimated from the measurements, whereas in the second study (Hickey et al.,1997b) the mean were well defined with a sodium wind-temperature lidar.

Hickey, Michael P.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXVI, Part 22

The Lunar and Planetary Science XXXVI, Part 22 is presented. The topics include: 1) Pressure Histories from Thin and Thick Shock-induced Melt Veins in Meteorites; 2) Nano-structured Minerals as Signature of Microbial Activity; 3) The Insoluble Carbonaceous Material of CM Chondrites as Possible Source of Discrete Organics During the Asteroidal Aqueous Phase; 4) Discovery of Abundant Presolar Silicates in Subgroups of Antarctic Micrometeorites; 5) Characteristics of a Seismometer for the LUNAR-A Penetrator; 6) Heating Experiments of the HaH 262 Eucrite and Implication for the Metamorphic History of Highly Metamorphosed Eucrites; 7) Measurements of Ejecta Velocity Distribution by a High-Speed Video Camera; 8) Petrological Comparison of Mongolian Jalanash Ureilite and Twelve Antarctic Ureilites; 9) Metallographic Cooling Rate of IVA Irons Revisited; 10) Inhomogeneous Temperature Distribution in Chondrules in Shock-Wave Heating Model; 11) Subsurface Weathering of Rocks and Soils at Gusev Crater; 12) Extinct Radioactivities in the Early Solar System and the Mean Age of the Galaxy; 13) Correlation of Rock Spectra with Quantitative Morphologic Indices: Evidence for a Single Rock Type at the Mars Pathfinder Landing Site; 14) Silicon Isotopic Ratios of Presolar Grains from Supernovae; 15) Current Status and Readiness on In-Situ Exploration of Asteroid Surface by MINERVA Rover in Hayabusa Mission; 16) Long Formation Period of Single CAI: Combination of O and Mg Isotope Distribution; 17) Supra-Canonical Initial 26Al/27Al Indicate a 105 Year Residence Time for CAIs in the Solar Proto-Planetary Disk; 18) Evolution of Mercury's Obliquity; 19) First Results from the Huygens Surface Science Package; 20) Polyhedral Serpentine Grains in CM Chondrites; 21) Mountainous Units in the Martian Gusev Highland Region: Volcanic, Tectonic, or Impact Related? 22) Petrography of Lunar Meteorite MET 01210, A New Basaltic Regolith Breccia; 23) Earth-Moon Impacts at ~300 Ma and ~500 Ma Ago; 24) Chemical and Isotopic Analyses of Apollo 16 Glasses: An Integrated Approach; 25) Measuring the Surfaces on Mars; 26) Melting in Martian Snowbanks; 27) The Effect of Ni on Fe-FeS Phase Relations: Implications for the Chemistry of the Martian Core; 28) Shorelines in the Western United States as Analogs for Hypothesized Shoreline Features on Mars; 29) Al and Ti Isotopic Ratios of Presolar SiC Grains of Type Z; 30) Physicochemical Conditions of Clinopyroxene Crystallization in the Parental Bodies of Ordinary Chondrites; 31) Metamorphosed CM and CI Carbonaceous Chondrites Could be from the Breakup of the Same Earth-crossing Asteroid; 32) Aqueous Alteration and Hydrogen Generation on Parent Bodies of Unequilibrated Ordinary Chondrites: Thermodynamic Modeling for the Semarkona Composition; and 33) Preliminary Analysis of Relative Abundances of Hydrothermal Alteration Products in the C1-N10, Y6-N19, and Yax-1_863.51 Impact Melt Samples, Chicxulub Structure, Mexico

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2026

A prototype cooling blanket for mitigating occupant overheating risk in a hot indoor environment: Modeling and assessments

Conventional ways of cooling a room or an entire house for occupant thermal comfort during summer consume a significant amount of energy and are vulnerable to overheating risk during power outages that lead to loss of cooling system operations. This study investigates a low-power cooling blanket, as a Personal Cooling System (PCS), that covers the upper human body for direct cooling during a five-day heat wave in a single-family house. A modeling framework is developed for evaluating the thermal and energy performance of the cooling blanket, which builds upon the co-simulation of three models: a house energy model, a personal thermal comfort model, and a cooling blanket model. Simulation results show that under the power outage scenario, the cooling blanket can greatly reduce the occupant heat stress with a reduction of daily hours of exceedance (discomfort hours defined as TSV>2) by up to 17.2 h (a 95.3 % improvement from the baseline power outage without the blanket). The cooling blanket, equipped with an innovative electrocaloric heat pump (COP as high as 10.1) consumes 6.31 W and can be operated by a portable battery for several days. The cooling blanket consumes only 0.28 % of the electricity of a central air-conditioning system running to provide cooling for the whole house during the five-day heatwave period. The findings justify further research of electrocaloric wearable PCS as low-power effective cooling to ensure thermal survivability of occupants during extreme indoor environments.

Electrocaloric heat pump↗
NASA NTRS1999

TRACE Observation of Damped Coronal Loop Oscillations: Implicating for Coronal Heating

The imaging telescope on board the Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE) spacecraft observed the decaying transversal oscillations of a long [(130 +/- 6) x 10(exp 6) meters], thin [diameter (2.0 +/- 0.36) x 10(exp 6) meters], bright coronal loop in the 171 angstrom Fe-IX emission line. The oscillations were excited by a solar flare in the adjacent active region. The decay time of the oscillations is 12.1 +/- 6.7 minutes for an oscillation with a frequency 3.90 +/- 0.13 millihertz The coronal dissipation coefficient is estimated to be eight to nine orders of magnitude larger than the theoretically predicted classical value. The larger dissipation coefficient may solve existing difficulties with wave heating and reconnection theories.

Nakariakov, V. M.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Disentangling the Relative Drivers of Seasonal Evapotranspiration Across a Continental-Scale Aridity Gradient

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a significant ecosystem flux, governing the partitioning of energy at the land surface. Understanding the seasonal pattern and magnitude of ET is critical for anticipating a range of ecosystem impacts, including drought, heat-wave events, and plant mortality. Here, in this study, we identified the relative controls of seasonal variability in ET, and how these controls vary among ecosystems. We used overlapping AmeriFlux and PhenoCam time series at a daily timestep from 20 sites to explore these linkages (# site-years >100), and our study area covered a broad climatological aridity gradient in the U.S. and Canada. We focused on disentangling the most important controls of bulk surface conductance (G s ) and evaporative fraction (EF = LE/[H + LE]), where LE and H represent latent and sensible heat fluxes, respectively. Specifically, we investigated how vegetation phenology varied in importance relative to meteorological variables (vapor pressure deficit and antecedent precipitation) as a driver of G s and EF using path analysis, a framework for quantifying and comparing the causal linkages among multiple response and explanatory variables. Our results revealed that the drivers of G s and EF seasonality varied significantly between energy- and water-limited ecosystems. Specifically, precipitation had a much higher effect in water-limited ecosystems, while seasonal patterns in canopy greenness emerged as a stronger control in energy-limited ecosystems. Given that phenology is expected to shift under future climate, our findings provide key information for understanding and predicting how phenology may impact 21st-century hydroclimate regimes and the surface-energy balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Laser transport and backscatter in low-density SiO 2 and Ta2O 5 foams

Experiments using a single 527 nm wavelength beam interacting with sub- and supercritical density SiO 2 and Ta 2 O 5 foams examined laser propagation and backscatter from laser–plasma instabilities such as Stimulated Brillouin Scattering (SBS). Two densities of each material were examined, and multiple diagnostics were used to characterize the propagation and backscatter. For 5 mg/cc SiO 2 (n e /n c = 0.375), the laser propagation distance was well approximated by treating the foam as a gas. However, for the 2 mg/cc SiO 2 foam (n e /n c = 0.15), the same model over-predicts the propagation distance by ~40%. Furthermore, existing analytical theories on propagation through subcritical foams were able to account for this difference. The laser heat wave propagated ~1/2 as far in Ta 2 O 5 than SiO 2 foams with similar electron density. We showed that this difference is due to the increased radiation losses in the higher Z foam. The fraction of backscattered light scales linearly with incident laser intensity for the range of intensities examined. Ta 2 O 5 foams had significantly lower levels of backscatter (1–3%) than the SiO 2 (4–8%), which is consistent with estimates of large Landau damping due to the presence of the oxygen atoms. The measured fraction of SBS backscattered laser energy for a 2 mg/cc SiO 2 foam shot was ~4 times lower than predicted by simulations assuming a gas-like foam. We found that we needed to assume increased ion heating such that T i /T e ~1.2–1.5 in the plasma to agree with the measured SBS reflectivity. Analytical models of laser-heated foams predict preferential heating of the ions as has been observed in previous experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2017

Coping with Higher Sea Levels and Increased Coastal Flooding in New York City

The 837 km New York City shoreline is lined by significant economic assets and dense population vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal flooding. After Hurricane Sandy in 2012, New York City developed a comprehensive plan to mitigate future climate risks, drawing upon the scientific expertise of the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), a special advisory group comprised of university and private-sector experts. This paper highlights current NPCC findings regarding sea level rise and coastal flooding, with some of the City's ongoing and planned responses. Twentieth century sea level rise in New York City (2.8 cm/decade) exceeded the global average (1.7 cm/decade), underscoring the enhanced regional risk to coastal hazards. NPCC (2015) projects future sea level rise at the Battery of 28 - 53 cm by the 2050s and 46 - 99 cm by the 2080s, relative to 2000 - 2004 (mid-range, 25th - 75th percentile). High-end SLR estimates (90th percentile) reach 76 cm by the 2050s, and 1.9 m by 2100. Combining these projections with updated FEMA flood return period curves, assuming static flood dynamics and storm behavior, flood heights for the 100-year storm (excluding waves) attain 3.9-4.5 m (mid-range), relative to the NAVD88 tidal datum, and 4.9 m (high end) by the 2080s, up from 3.4 m in the 2000s. Flood heights with a 1% annual chance of occurrence in the 2000s increase to 2.0 - 5.4% (mid-range) and 12.7% per year (high-end), by the 2080s. Guided by NPCC (2013, 2015) findings, New York City has embarked on a suite of initiatives to strengthen coastal defenses, employing various approaches tailored to specific neighborhood needs. NPCC continues its collaboration with the city to investigate vulnerability to extreme climate events, including heat waves, inland floods and coastal storms. Current research entails higher-resolution neighborhood-level coastal flood mapping, changes in storm characteristics, surge height interactions with sea level rise, and stronger engagement with stakeholders and community-based organizations.

Coastal flooding↗
DOE OSTI2024

Defining weather scenarios for simulation-based assessment of thermal resilience of buildings under current and future climates: A case study in Brazil

In response to increasingly severe weather conditions, optimization of building performance and investment provides an opportunity to consider co-benefits of thermal resilience during energy efficiency retrofits. This work aims to assess thermal resilience of buildings using building performance simulation to evaluate the indoor overheating risk under nine weather scenarios, considering historical (2010s), mid-term future (2050s), and long-term future (2090s) typical meteorological years, and heat wave years. Such an analysis is based on resilience profiles that combine six integrated indicators. A case study with a district of 92 buildings in Brazil was conducted, and a combination of strategies to improve thermal resilience was identified. Results reflect the necessity of planning for resilience in the context of climate change. This is because strategies recommended under current conditions might not be ideal in the future. Therefore, an adaptable design should be prioritized. Cooling energy consumption could increase by 48 % by the 2050s, while excessive overheating issues could reach 37 % of the buildings. Simple passive strategies can significantly reduce the heat stress. A comprehensive thermal resilience analysis should ultimately be accompanied by a thorough reflection on the stakeholders’ objectives, available resources, and planning horizon, as well as the risks assumed for not being resilient.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗