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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Hypervelocity impact in stellar media: heat shielding, shock fronts and ablation clouds

The Frontier Plasma Science experiments proposed by our team will model the processes occurring during spacecraft atmospheric entries and meteorite planetary collisions by inserting material targets into the Scrape off Layer (SOL) and edge plasma of a tokamak. This project will investigate important plasma-material processes during high-enthalpy atmospheric entries, including heat flux generation and material ablation. Of particular interest is to explore heat and particle flux detachment in front of the sample using concepts and techniques developed in the latest studies of divertor detachment. Exploration missions to the Solar System’s gaseous giants and hyperbolic re-entries into the Earth’s atmosphere require spacecraft that can withstand high velocity (>10 km/s), high heat fluxes (>10 MW/m2), and corresponding enthalpies. Ablative materials have been used as thermal shields to protect the spacecraft from severe heating during entry. However, developing high enthalpy ablating materials is challenging due to the lack of adequate ground testing facilities. Our team stated that the performance of candidate shielding materials could be assessed in a laboratory environment with multiple in-situ diagnostics, which was enabled by the progress in the tokamak research. Modern machines feature relatively long discharges (~10 s) with well-controlled stable plasma conditions at the edge where the heat flux and the flow speed are similar to those experienced during atmospheric entries. The experiments were carried out at the DIII-D National Fusion Facility in San Diego, CA, operated by General Atomics (GA) for the DoE.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Harnessing Machine Learning and Data Fusion for Accurate Undocumented Well Identification in Satellite Images

This study utilizes satellite data to detect undocumented oil and gas wells, which pose significant environmental concerns, including greenhouse gas emissions. Three key findings emerge from the study. Firstly, the problem of imbalanced data is addressed by recommending oversampling techniques like Rotation–GaussianBlur–Solarization data augmentation (RGS), the Synthetic Minority Over-Sampling Technique (SMOTE), or ADASYN (an extension of SMOTE) over undersampling techniques. The performance of borderline SMOTE is less effective than that of the rest of the oversampling techniques, as its performance relies heavily on the quality and distribution of data near the decision boundary. Secondly, incorporating pre-trained models trained on large-scale datasets enhances the models’ generalization ability, with models trained on one county’s dataset demonstrating high overall accuracy, recall, and F1 scores that can be extended to other areas. This transferability of models allows for wider application. Lastly, including persistent homology (PH) as an additional input improves performance for in-distribution testing but may affect the model’s generalization for out-of-distribution testing. A careful consideration of PH’s impact on overall performance and generalizability is recommended. Overall, this study provides a robust approach to identifying undocumented oil and gas wells, contributing to the acceleration of a net-zero economy and supporting environmental sustainability efforts.

SMOTE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of input gradient regularization on neural networks time-series forecasting of thermal power systems

This study proposes using neural networks, specifically gated recurrent unit (GRU), long-short-term memory (LSTM), and transformer networks, to improve control strategies in a 450 MW coal-fired power plant. However, neural networks face issues of becoming overly dependent on just a few variables to make predictions, which negatively impacts control decisions that rely on the model to determine the value of all manipulated variables. The paper introduces regularization techniques, including noise injection and input gradient regularization, during the training phase. Here, the work presents novel contributions in adapting neural networks to control industrial systems and applying regularization techniques from computer vision to industrial process control. Results demonstrate the effectiveness of input gradient regularization in reducing model dependence on subsets of variables, emphasizing the balance between fidelity and controllability. Further exploration is recommended, including the development of recurrent transformers, closed-loop control testing, and a sensitivity analysis on computer models to provide further insight.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Full-scale Demonstration of Multi-process Sensor at a Cycling PC-fired Boiler

The main objective of this research program is to design, manufacture, and demonstrate a miniaturized, multi-process, monitoring system (mMPMS) for boiler condition management and easy system deployment to obtain a higher spatial resolution. This system will facilitate a Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) philosophy that actively monitors the health of assets to predict and prevent failures and maximize availability and generating capacity at a reduced cost. CBM systems can provide boiler data that the advanced process control (APC) system can utilize for plant performance optimization, which is increasingly relevant as coal power plants shift from predominantly base-load operation to predominantly transient operation involving large load swings. The mMPMS is based on an electrochemical sensor that provides a real-time indication of the risk of damage to key locations in the radiant or convective section of a coal-fired boiler such as metal loss rates, heat flux, metal surface temperature, and deposit thickness. These indications can be utilized to optimize boiler performance as well as improve boiler availability in conjunction with corresponding operating conditions. This monitoring system was developed and tested in the high-temperature regions of coal-fired utility boilers in this project but can be applied to many other industries and applications as well. This project leveraged the existing electrochemical noise-based monitoring system and the new sensor design is small enough to be installed through the webbing of the waterwalls without the need for long shut-downs to bend tubes and to make it feasible to obtain high spatial resolution in the boiler. Data is transferred to the plant distributed control system (DCS) and any other control system. The sensor body that houses the sensor assembly was designed to ensure good conductive contact with boiler tubes to ensure the sensor is held at an identical temperature to the tube surface temperature. The data acquisition and signal conditioning modules were redesigned into a small footprint with optimized cooling of the module. System software was developed specifically for the new signal conditioning module and is compatible with plant PLCs. After the preliminary testing at a pilot-scale facility, the three mMPMS were installed at a full-scale pulverized coal-fired plant, PacifiCorp’s Hunter 3. The systems were demonstrated over 20,000 hours at the plant during regular operation. Also, the sensor data was fed to the plant’s advanced process control system to evaluate the corrosion control by the operation changes and utilized to understand the impacts of load cycling with different ramping up and down speeds. At the end of the project, the systems were converted to the permanent installation at the power plant to be used with the advanced process control system installed at the plant.

Advanced Sensors, Corrosion, Ash Deposition, Optim↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development of Miniaturized High Temperature Multi Process Monitoring System

The main objective of this research program is to design, manufacture, and demonstrate a miniaturized, multi-process, monitoring system (mMPMS) for boiler condition management and easy system deployment to obtain a higher spatial resolution. This system will facilitate a Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) philosophy that actively monitors the health of assets to predict and prevent failures and maximize availability and generating capacity at a reduced cost. CBM systems can provide boiler data that the advanced process control (APC) system can utilize for plant performance optimization, which is increasingly relevant as coal power plants shift from predominantly base-load operation to predominantly transient operation involving large load swings. The mMPMS is based on an electrochemical sensor that provides a real-time indication of the risk of damage to key locations in the radiant or convective section of a coal-fired boiler such as metal loss rates, heat flux, metal surface temperature, and deposit thickness. These indications can be utilized to optimize boiler performance as well as improve boiler availability in conjunction with corresponding operating conditions. This monitoring system was developed and tested in the high-temperature regions of coal-fired utility boilers in this project but can be applied to many other industries and applications as well. This project leveraged the existing electrochemical noise-based monitoring system and the new sensor design is small enough to be installed through the webbing of the waterwalls without the need for long shut-downs to bend tubes and to make it feasible to obtain high spatial resolution in the boiler. Data is transferred to the plant distributed control system (DCS) and any other control system. The sensor body that houses the sensor assembly was designed to ensure good conductive contact with boiler tubes to ensure the sensor is held at an identical temperature to the tube surface temperature. The data acquisition and signal conditioning modules were redesigned into a small footprint with optimized cooling of the module. System software was developed specifically for the new signal conditioning module and is compatible with plant PLCs. After the preliminary testing at a pilot-scale facility, the three mMPMS were installed at a full-scale pulverized coal-fired plant, PacifiCorp’s Hunter 3. The systems were demonstrated over 20,000 hours at the plant during regular operation. Also, the sensor data was fed to the plant’s advanced process control system to evaluate the corrosion control by the operation changes and utilized to understand the impacts of load cycling with different ramping up and down speeds. At the end of the project, the systems were converted to the permanent installation at the power plant to be used with the advanced process control system installed at the plant.

Advanced Sensors, Corrosion, Ash Deposition, Optim↗
DOE OSTI2021

A. Development of Miniaturized High Temperature Multi Process Monitoring System

The main objective of this research program is to design, manufacture, and demonstrate a miniaturized, multi-process, monitoring system (mMPMS) for boiler condition management and easy system deployment to obtain a higher spatial resolution. This system will facilitate a Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) philosophy that actively monitors the health of assets to predict and prevent failures and maximize availability and generating capacity at a reduced cost. CBM systems can provide boiler data that the advanced process control (APC) system can utilize for plant performance optimization, which is increasingly relevant as coal power plants shift from predominantly base-load operation to predominantly transient operation involving large load swings. The mMPMS is based on an electrochemical sensor that provides a real-time indication of the risk of damage to key locations in the radiant or convective section of a coal-fired boiler such as metal loss rates, heat flux, metal surface temperature, and deposit thickness. These indications can be utilized to optimize boiler performance as well as improve boiler availability in conjunction with corresponding operating conditions. This monitoring system was developed and tested in the high-temperature regions of coal-fired utility boilers in this project but can be applied to many other industries and applications as well. This project leveraged the existing electrochemical noise-based monitoring system and the new sensor design is small enough to be installed through the webbing of the waterwalls without the need for long shut-downs to bend tubes and to make it feasible to obtain high spatial resolution in the boiler. Data is transferred to the plant distributed control system (DCS) and any other control system. The sensor body that houses the sensor assembly was designed to ensure good conductive contact with boiler tubes to ensure the sensor is held at an identical temperature to the tube surface temperature. The data acquisition and signal conditioning modules were redesigned into a small footprint with optimized cooling of the module. System software was developed specifically for the new signal conditioning module and is compatible with plant PLCs. After the preliminary testing at a pilot-scale facility, the three mMPMS were installed at a full-scale pulverized coal-fired plant, PacifiCorp’s Hunter 3. The systems were demonstrated over 20,000 hours at the plant during regular operation. Also, the sensor data was fed to the plant’s advanced process control system to evaluate the corrosion control by the operation changes and utilized to understand the impacts of load cycling with different ramping up and down speeds. At the end of the project, the systems were converted to the permanent installation at the power plant to be used with the advanced process control system installed at the plant.

Advanced Sensors, Corrosion, Ash Deposition, Optim↗
DOE OSTI2021

High-Temperature Multi-Process Sensor Development for a PC-Fired Unit

The main objective of this research program is to design, manufacture, and demonstrate a miniaturized, multi-process, monitoring system (mMPMS) for boiler condition management and easy system deployment to obtain a higher spatial resolution. This system will facilitate a Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) philosophy that actively monitors the health of assets to predict and prevent failures and maximize availability and generating capacity at a reduced cost. CBM systems can provide boiler data that the advanced process control (APC) system can utilize for plant performance optimization, which is increasingly relevant as coal power plants shift from predominantly base-load operation to predominantly transient operation involving large load swings. The mMPMS is based on an electrochemical sensor that provides a real-time indication of the risk of damage to key locations in the radiant or convective section of a coal-fired boiler such as metal loss rates, heat flux, metal surface temperature, and deposit thickness. These indications can be utilized to optimize boiler performance as well as improve boiler availability in conjunction with corresponding operating conditions. This monitoring system was developed and tested in the high-temperature regions of coal-fired utility boilers in this project but can be applied to many other industries and applications as well. This project leveraged the existing electrochemical noise-based monitoring system and the new sensor design is small enough to be installed through the webbing of the waterwalls without the need for long shut-downs to bend tubes and to make it feasible to obtain high spatial resolution in the boiler. Data is transferred to the plant distributed control system (DCS) and any other control system. The sensor body that houses the sensor assembly was designed to ensure good conductive contact with boiler tubes to ensure the sensor is held at an identical temperature to the tube surface temperature. The data acquisition and signal conditioning modules were redesigned into a small footprint with optimized cooling of the module. System software was developed specifically for the new signal conditioning module and is compatible with plant PLCs. After the preliminary testing at a pilot-scale facility, the three mMPMS were installed at a full-scale pulverized coal-fired plant, PacifiCorp’s Hunter 3. The systems were demonstrated over 20,000 hours at the plant during regular operation. Also, the sensor data was fed to the plant’s advanced process control system to evaluate the corrosion control by the operation changes and utilized to understand the impacts of load cycling with different ramping up and down speeds. At the end of the project, the systems were converted to the permanent installation at the power plant to be used with the advanced process control system installed at the plant.

Advanced Sensors, Corrosion, Ash Deposition, Optim↗
DOE OSTI2022

Real-time sensor measurements to evaluate impacts of load cycling on high-temperature fire-side corrosion in a PC boiler

The main objective of this research program is to design, manufacture, and demonstrate a miniaturized, multi-process, monitoring system (mMPMS) for boiler condition management and easy system deployment to obtain a higher spatial resolution. This system will facilitate a Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) philosophy that actively monitors the health of assets to predict and prevent failures and maximize availability and generating capacity at a reduced cost. CBM systems can provide boiler data that the advanced process control (APC) system can utilize for plant performance optimization, which is increasingly relevant as coal power plants shift from predominantly base-load operation to predominantly transient operation involving large load swings. The mMPMS is based on an electrochemical sensor that provides a real-time indication of the risk of damage to key locations in the radiant or convective section of a coal-fired boiler such as metal loss rates, heat flux, metal surface temperature, and deposit thickness. These indications can be utilized to optimize boiler performance as well as improve boiler availability in conjunction with corresponding operating conditions. This monitoring system was developed and tested in the high-temperature regions of coal-fired utility boilers in this project but can be applied to many other industries and applications as well. This project leveraged the existing electrochemical noise-based monitoring system and the new sensor design is small enough to be installed through the webbing of the waterwalls without the need for long shut-downs to bend tubes and to make it feasible to obtain high spatial resolution in the boiler. Data is transferred to the plant distributed control system (DCS) and any other control system. The sensor body that houses the sensor assembly was designed to ensure good conductive contact with boiler tubes to ensure the sensor is held at an identical temperature to the tube surface temperature. The data acquisition and signal conditioning modules were redesigned into a small footprint with optimized cooling of the module. System software was developed specifically for the new signal conditioning module and is compatible with plant PLCs. After the preliminary testing at a pilot-scale facility, the three mMPMS were installed at a full-scale pulverized coal-fired plant, PacifiCorp’s Hunter 3. The systems were demonstrated over 20,000 hours at the plant during regular operation. Also, the sensor data was fed to the plant’s advanced process control system to evaluate the corrosion control by the operation changes and utilized to understand the impacts of load cycling with different ramping up and down speeds. At the end of the project, the systems were converted to the permanent installation at the power plant to be used with the advanced process control system installed at the plant.

Advanced Sensors, Corrosion, Ash Deposition, Optim↗
DOE OSTI2025

An investigation on machine learning predictive accuracy improvement and uncertainty reduction using VAE-based data augmentation

The confluence of ultrafast computers with large memory, rapid progress in Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, and the availability of large datasets place multiple engineering fields at the threshold of dramatic progress. However, a unique challenge in nuclear engineering is data scarcity because experimentation on nuclear systems is usually more expensive and time-consuming than most other disciplines. One potential way to resolve the data scarcity issue is deep generative learning, which uses certain ML models to learn the underlying distribution of existing data and generate synthetic samples that resemble the real data. In this way, one can significantly expand the dataset to train more accurate predictive ML models. In this study, our objective is to evaluate the effectiveness of data augmentation using variational autoencoder (VAE)-based deep generative models. We investigated whether the data augmentation leads to improved accuracy in the predictions of a deep neural network (DNN) model trained using the augmented data. Additionally, the DNN prediction uncertainties are quantified using Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN) and conformal prediction (CP) to assess the impact on predictive uncertainty reduction. To test the proposed methodology, we used TRACE simulations of steady-state void fraction data based on the NUPEC Boiling Water Reactor Full-size Fine-mesh Bundle Test (BFBT) benchmark. Here, we found that augmenting the training dataset using VAEs has improved the DNN model’s predictive accuracy, improved the prediction confidence intervals, and reduced the prediction uncertainties.

Bayesian neural network↗
DOE OSTI2021

High-Temperature Multi-Process Sensor Development and Demonstration at Coalfired Power Plants

The main objective of this research program is to design, manufacture, and demonstrate a miniaturized, multi-process, monitoring system (mMPMS) for boiler condition management and easy system deployment to obtain a higher spatial resolution. This system will facilitate a Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) philosophy that actively monitors the health of assets to predict and prevent failures and maximize availability and generating capacity at a reduced cost. CBM systems can provide boiler data that the advanced process control (APC) system can utilize for plant performance optimization, which is increasingly relevant as coal power plants shift from predominantly base-load operation to predominantly transient operation involving large load swings. The mMPMS is based on an electrochemical sensor that provides a real-time indication of the risk of damage to key locations in the radiant or convective section of a coal-fired boiler such as metal loss rates, heat flux, metal surface temperature, and deposit thickness. These indications can be utilized to optimize boiler performance as well as improve boiler availability in conjunction with corresponding operating conditions. This monitoring system was developed and tested in the high-temperature regions of coal-fired utility boilers in this project but can be applied to many other industries and applications as well. This project leveraged the existing electrochemical noise-based monitoring system and the new sensor design is small enough to be installed through the webbing of the waterwalls without the need for long shut-downs to bend tubes and to make it feasible to obtain high spatial resolution in the boiler. Data is transferred to the plant distributed control system (DCS) and any other control system. The sensor body that houses the sensor assembly was designed to ensure good conductive contact with boiler tubes to ensure the sensor is held at an identical temperature to the tube surface temperature. The data acquisition and signal conditioning modules were redesigned into a small footprint with optimized cooling of the module. System software was developed specifically for the new signal conditioning module and is compatible with plant PLCs. After the preliminary testing at a pilot-scale facility, the three mMPMS were installed at a full-scale pulverized coal-fired plant, PacifiCorp’s Hunter 3. The systems were demonstrated over 20,000 hours at the plant during regular operation. Also, the sensor data was fed to the plant’s advanced process control system to evaluate the corrosion control by the operation changes and utilized to understand the impacts of load cycling with different ramping up and down speeds. At the end of the project, the systems were converted to the permanent installation at the power plant to be used with the advanced process control system installed at the plant.

Advanced Sensors, Corrosion, Ash Deposition, Optim↗
DOE OSTI2021

High-Temperature Multi-Process Sensor Development and Demonstration at a Full-scale PC Combustion System

The main objective of this research program is to design, manufacture, and demonstrate a miniaturized, multi-process, monitoring system (mMPMS) for boiler condition management and easy system deployment to obtain a higher spatial resolution. This system will facilitate a Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) philosophy that actively monitors the health of assets to predict and prevent failures and maximize availability and generating capacity at a reduced cost. CBM systems can provide boiler data that the advanced process control (APC) system can utilize for plant performance optimization, which is increasingly relevant as coal power plants shift from predominantly base-load operation to predominantly transient operation involving large load swings. The mMPMS is based on an electrochemical sensor that provides a real-time indication of the risk of damage to key locations in the radiant or convective section of a coal-fired boiler such as metal loss rates, heat flux, metal surface temperature, and deposit thickness. These indications can be utilized to optimize boiler performance as well as improve boiler availability in conjunction with corresponding operating conditions. This monitoring system was developed and tested in the high-temperature regions of coal-fired utility boilers in this project but can be applied to many other industries and applications as well. This project leveraged the existing electrochemical noise-based monitoring system and the new sensor design is small enough to be installed through the webbing of the waterwalls without the need for long shut-downs to bend tubes and to make it feasible to obtain high spatial resolution in the boiler. Data is transferred to the plant distributed control system (DCS) and any other control system. The sensor body that houses the sensor assembly was designed to ensure good conductive contact with boiler tubes to ensure the sensor is held at an identical temperature to the tube surface temperature. The data acquisition and signal conditioning modules were redesigned into a small footprint with optimized cooling of the module. System software was developed specifically for the new signal conditioning module and is compatible with plant PLCs. After the preliminary testing at a pilot-scale facility, the three mMPMS were installed at a full-scale pulverized coal-fired plant, PacifiCorp’s Hunter 3. The systems were demonstrated over 20,000 hours at the plant during regular operation. Also, the sensor data was fed to the plant’s advanced process control system to evaluate the corrosion control by the operation changes and utilized to understand the impacts of load cycling with different ramping up and down speeds. At the end of the project, the systems were converted to the permanent installation at the power plant to be used with the advanced process control system installed at the plant.

Advanced Sensors, Corrosion, Ash Deposition, Optim↗
DOE OSTI2024

Robustness of topological persistence in knowledge distillation for wearable sensor data

Topological data analysis (TDA) has shown great success in various applications involving wearable sensor data. However, there are difficulties in leveraging topological features in machine learning and wearable sensors because of the large time consumption and computational resources required to extract the features. To address this problem, knowledge distillation (KD) is utilized to generate a small model and accommodate topological features with persistence image (PI) representations from the raw time series data. Deploying topological knowledge in KD enables the student to achieve better performance compared to the one trained solely on raw time series data. However, it is not yet known if there are coherent characteristics for topological features in PI, which can aid in improving the performance during KD. In this paper, we investigate the suitability and challenges of utilizing topological features in KD for wearable sensor data, thereby contributing to the advancement of the field. Our study explores the impact of transferred topological features by comparing the Teacher-to-Student framework with Multiple Teachers-to-Student where teachers utilize both time series data and persistence images obtained by TDA as inputs. Additionally, we conduct a rigorous examination of topological knowledge effects by testing under various corruptions, knowledge types, and learning strategies in the context of human activity recognition tasks. Our analysis of topological features in KD presents the optimal strategy for incorporating these features. This study includes datasets of varying scales, window lengths, and activity classes, providing a comprehensive evaluation. Our results demonstrate that leveraging topological features in KD to enhance performance across databases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Decoding substrate specificity determining factors in glycosyltransferase-B enzymes – insights from machine learning models

Substrate specificity is an essential characteristic of any enzyme's function and an understanding of the factors that determine this specificity is crucial for enzyme engineering. Unlike the structure of an enzyme which is directly impacted by its sequence, substrate specificity as an enzyme attribute involves a rather indirect relationship with sequence as it also depends on structural aspects that dictate substrate accessibility and active site dynamics. In this study, we explore the performance of classifier-based machine learning models trained on curated sequence and structural data for a class of glycosyltransferases (GTs), namely GT-Bs, to understand their substrate specificity determining factors. GTs enable the transfer of sugar moieties to other biomolecules such as oligosaccharides or proteins and are found in all kingdoms of life. In plants, GTs participate in the biosynthesis of plant cell wall biopolymers (e.g.: hemicelluloses and pectins) and are an integral part of the enzymatic machinery that enables the storage of carbon and energy as plant biomass. To elucidate the substrate specificity of uncharacterized GT-Bs, we constructed multi-label machine learning models (Support Vector Classifier, K-Nearest Neighbors, Gaussian Naïve-Bayes, Random Forest) that incorporate both sequence and structural features. These models achieve good predictive accuracies on test datasets. However, despite our use of structural information, we highlight that there is further scope for improvement in training these models to draw interpretable relationships between sequence, structure and substrate specificity determining motifs in GT-Bs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A surrogate-model-based approach for estimating the first and second-order moments of offshore wind power

Power curve, the functional relationship that governs the process of converting a set of weather variables experienced by a wind turbine into electric power, is widely used in the wind industry to estimate power output for planning and operational purposes. Existing methods for power curve estimation have three main limitations: (i) they mostly rely on wind speed as the sole input, thus ignoring the secondary, yet possibly significant effects of other environmental factors, (ii) they largely overlook the complex marine environment in which offshore turbines operate, potentially compromising their value in offshore wind energy applications, and (ii) they solely focus on the first-order properties of wind power, with little (or null) information about the variation around the mean behavior, which is important for ensuring reliable grid integration, asset health monitoring, and energy storage, among others. In light of that, this study investigates the impact of several wind-and wave-related factors on offshore wind power variability, with the ultimate goal of accurately predicting its first two moments. Further, our approach couples OpenFAST—a multi-physics wind turbine simulator—with Gaussian Process (GP) regression to reveal the underlying relationships governing offshore weather-to-power conversion. We first find that a multi-input power curve which captures the combined impact of wind speed, direction, and air density, can provide double-digit improvements, in terms of prediction accuracy, relative to univariate methods which rely on wind speed as the sole explanatory variable (e.g. the standard method of bins). Wave-related variables are found not important for predicting the average power output, but interestingly, appear to be extremely relevant in describing the fluctuation of the offshore power around its mean. Tested on real-world data collected at the New York/New Jersey bight, our proposed multi-input models demonstrate a high explanatory power in predicting the first two moments of offshore wind generation, testifying their potential value to the offshore wind industry.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Monitoring of Liquid Metal Reactor Heater Zones with Recurrent Neural Network Learning of Temperature Time Series

Advanced high-temperature fluid reactors (ARs), such as sodium fast reactors (SFRs) and molten salt cooled reactors (MSCRs) utilize high-temperature fluids at ambient pressure. To melt the fluid during reactor startup and prevent fluid freezing during cooldown, the thermal–hydraulic systems of such ARs include heater zones consisting of specific heaters with controllers, temperature sensors, and thermal insulation. The failure of heater zones due to insulation material degradation or improper installation, resulting in parasitic heat losses, can lead to fluid freezing. The detection of faults using a heat-transfer model is difficult because of a lack of knowledge of the experimental details. Data-driven machine learning of heater zone temperature time series offers a viable alternative. In this study, we benchmarked the performance of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) in an analysis of heat-up transient temperature time series of heater zones installed on a liquid sodium vessel. The RNN models include long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) networks, as well as their bi-directional variants, BiLSTM and BiGRU. Anomalous temperature points were designated using a percentile-based threshold applied to residual fluctuations in the detrended temperature time series. Additionally, the impact of the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) method on detection accuracy was examined. The RNN models’ performance was assessed using precision, recall, and F 1 score metrics. Results demonstrated that RNN models effectively detect anomalies in temperature time series with the best models for each heater zone achieving F 1 scores of over 93%. To explain the variations in RNN model performance across different heater zones, we used Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence to quantify the relative entropy between training and testing data, and the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) to assess long-range temporal correlations. For datasets with strong long-range correlations and minimal relative entropy between training and testing data, GRU is the best-performing model. When the data exhibits weaker long-term correlations and a significant relative entropy between training and testing distributions, BiGRU shows the best performance. For the data sets with intermediate values of both KL divergence and DFA, the best performance is obtained with LSTM and BiLSTM, respectively.

gated recurrent unit↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integrated Risk-Informed Condition Based Maintenance Capability and Automated Platform: Technical Report 3

This project is a collaborative research effort between PKMJ Technical Services LLC, Idaho National Laboratory, and Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) Nuclear, LLC. The collaboration, led by PKMJ Technical Services LLC, is part of the industry Funding Opportunity Announcement (FOA) award under Advanced Nuclear Technology Development FOA #DE-FOA-0001817. The pilot demonstration focuses on the Circulating Water System (CWS), an important non-safety-related system that impacts the power generation capability of the plant site. Achieving riskinformed condition-based Predictive Maintenance (PdM) on the CWS will result in significant economic benefits, and the developed methodologies can also be applied to other plant systems. This approach supports an industry goal of ensuring that nuclear power generation remains a viable, economically competitive option in the energy market. Operation and Maintenance (O&M) costs include labor-intensive Preventive Maintenance (PM) programs that involve manually performed inspection, calibration, testing, and maintenance of plant assets at periodic frequencies as well as time-based replacement of assets, irrespective of condition. This project offers an alternative by focusing on riskinformed condition-based maintenance to reduce O&M costs while still maintaining plant health and safety. This report summarizes the progress made toward achieving a risk-informed condition-based maintenance approach. The research and development (R&D) activities presented in this report are associated with development of a nuclear digital platform application, integration of fault signature models, and automated work management processes. The fault signatures and Machine Learning (ML) models are key components in predictive analytics and are heavily leveraged to improve the insights received by existing plant process data sources. Availability of the analysis results within a centralized digital platform enhances efficiency by enabling automation of activities otherwise performed manually. Personnel are presented with enhanced information that can be used to evaluate plant status and risks. Utilizing the enhancements to data analytics supports automated responses, (i.e. issuance of work orders) to address developing equipment faults and thus preventing forced, unplanned shutdowns of components or systems. The R&D activities described within this report lay the foundation for developing and demonstrating a digital automated platform to centralize the implementation of condition monitoring and response to equipment faults. The digital automated platform is cloud-based and designed to enable improved efficiency of plant processes. The digital platform includes content related to maintenance optimization, fault signature analysis, and plant records, which can all be used to support efficiencies when located within a centralized digital platform. These efficiencies could be further enhanced when deployed through industry-wide deployment of the technology to improve insights and processes based upon economies of scale.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ensuring statistical reproducibility of ocean model simulations in the age of hybrid computing

Novel high performance computing systems that feature hybrid architectures require large scale code refactoring to unravel underlying exploitable parallelism. Such redesign can often be accompanied with machine-precision changes as the order of computation cannot always be maintained. For chaotic systems like climate models, these round-off level differences can grow rapidly. Systematic errors may also manifest initially as machine-precision differences. Isolating genuine round off level differences from such errors remains a challenge. Here, we apply two-sample equality of distribution tests to evaluate statistical reproducibility of the ocean model component of US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). A 2-year control simulation ensemble is compared to a modified ensemble as a test case - after a known non-bit-for-bit change in a model component is introduced - to evaluate the null hypothesis that the two ensembles are statistically indistinguishable. To quantify the false negative rates of these tests, we conduct a formal power analysis using a targeted suite of short simulation ensembles. The ensemble suite contains several perturbed ensembles, each with a progressively different climate than the baseline ensemble - obtained by perturbing the magnitude of a single model tuning parameter, the Gent and McWilliams κ, in a controlled manner. The null hypothesis is evaluated for each of perturbed ensembles using these tests. The power analysis informs on the detection limits of the tests for given ensemble size allowing model developers to evaluate the impact of an introduced non-bit-for-bit change to the model.

Mahajan, Salil↗