NASA NTRS1986
The overall objective of the photovoltaic program is to ensure that photovoltaic conversion systems play a significant role in the nation's energy supply by stimulating an industry capable of providing approximately 50 GWe of installed electricity generating capacity by the year 2000. In order to achieve this overall objective, several time-phased program goals have been defined. Near-term goals are to achieve photovoltaic flat-plate module or concentrator array prices of $2 per peak watt (1975 dollars) at an annual production rate of 20 peak megawatts in 1982. At this price level, energy costs should range from 100 to 200 mills/kwh. Mid-term goals are to achieve photovoltaic flat-plate module or concentrator array prices of $0.50 per peak watt (in 1975 dollars), and an annual production rate of 500 peak megawatts in 1986. Studies project that photovoltaic systems will begin to compete for both distributed and larger load-center utility-type applications and thereby open up significant markets for large-scale photovoltaic systems. Far term goals are to achieve the photovoltaic flat-plate module or concentrator array price goal of $0.10 to $0.30 per peak watt in 1990 (in 1975 dollars), and an annual production rate of 10 to 20 peak gigawatts in 2000. At this price range, energy cost should be in the range of 40 to 60 mills. kwh and be cost effective for utility applications. Achievement of these goals can make photovoltaic systems economically competitive with other energy sources for dispersed on-site applications as well as for central power generation.