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Mantle Q at Period 12.4 Hours: New Estimates from Satellite Tracking and Altimetry

The most convincing estimates of mantle Q at periods of many hours have historically come from extrapolating seismic and free-oscillation estimates via some assumed frequency dependence, sometimes contrained by estimates from the Chandler Wobble. At the semidiurnal tidal period, direct estimates of Q have been difficult to obtain because of the dominating signals of the ocean tides, which account for more than 95!k of the tidal energy dissipation. But knowledge of the ocean tides has been rapidly improving, primarily owing to satellite altimetry, and in 1996 we reported (NATURE, 381, 595-7) an estimate of solid-earth tidal energy dissipation and mantle Q based on combining satellite altimeter measurements with tracking observations of tidally induced satellite orbit perturbations. Tidal estimates from both reveal a small systematic difference in the quadrature component of the degree-2, order-2 spherical harmonic coefficients, which we attribute to a small lag in the earth's body tide. The formalism accounts for this lag in both the altimeter and tracking solutions and also accounts for a very small contribution from the lunar atmospheric tide. Since this original report, both altimeter and tracking estimates have improved. Recent solutions for the body-tide lag at the M2 period are 0.20 +/- 0.09 degrees, implying an energy dissipation of 100 +/- 50 gigawatts and a solid-earth Q of 300. Further new solutions will be discussed, as will the prospects for significantly reducing error bars and for obtaining estimates from other tides in the diurnal band.

Ray, Richard D.↗

Investigating Low-Altitude Constellations of Ad-Hoc Lunar PNT System for Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy

In this study, we examine a low-altitude Lunar Position, Navigation, and Timing (LPNT) constellations and the localization performance of Centralized Extended Kalman Filter (CEKF) and Decentralized Extended Kalman Filter (DEKF) algorithms. The primary investigation involves a 100-node swarm operating at a 100 km altitude, in contrast to previous studies that examined a 21-node asset in a frozen-orbit at 5,500 km. The autonomous operation of large-scale swarm is based on two-way Inter-Satellite Link (ISL) measurements, which involve pseudoranges and relative velocities among swarm nodes. We perform a numerical assessment of the two filtering approaches, utilizing ‘fully sampled’ measurements from all available assets as well as ‘two ISL’ measurements where each spacecraft is restricted to only two antennas. This research includes an analysis of CEKF under 2-ISL constraints and evaluates the performance of DEKF in a 100-node swarm, which has not been explored in previous studies. In addition, we examine the impact of increasing the sampling frequency for DEKF, showing that the update cycle can be shortened from a 10-minute interval. A novel approach for ‘2-ISL limited’ DEKF will also be introduced, using a matching formulation that exhaustively enumerates all potential matches. This study provides valuable insights into large-scale distributed swarm operations, considering various filter configurations, sampling frequencies, matching strategies, and scalability of CEKF and DEKF for low-altitude LPNT applications. The Lunar PNT technology plays a key role in providing reliable and robust navigation services on the Moon's surface and the South pole, where the primary Lunar missions are planned. To support upcoming Lunar missions, including small satellites from NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services program, the Lunar PNT system must be adaptable to smaller platforms like CubeSats. Driven by the growing involvement of public and private exploration partnerships, the traditional low Earth orbit missions are shifting to beyond geosynchronous orbit [1]. These upcoming missions aim to foster a sustainable and innovative exploration program, in collaboration with commercial and international partners, to facilitate human expansion throughout the solar system and return new knowledge and opportunities to Earth [2]. As part of this trend, there are increasing efforts to utilize science missions in Lunar orbit to develop a non-dedicated and ad-hoc PNT network system. Two traditional approaches, the Deep Space Network (DSN) and the weak signal Global Positioning System (GPS), are established deep-space navigation technologies for missions beyond the geosynchronous orbit. Beginning in 1958, the DSN was developed to communicate with the Explorer 1 spacecraft based on the use of radiometric tracking in spacecraft navigation [3]. The DSN is capable of providing nearly unfettered coverage to spacecraft beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO), however, increased space mission volume has created concerns about future expectations of DSN usage for spacecraft navigation [4]. For cislunar mission applications, the position accuracy using DSN achieves 100 m (3σ) with at least three geometrically diverse ground stations when using radiometric tracking alone [5]. The DSN's dependence on Earth-based ground stations restricts its operational capabilities to periods of Earth visibility. This limitation, coupled with its poor localization performance, renders the DSN unsuitable for future lunar missions that demand continuous tracking and precise positioning. To satisfy the increasing requirements of DSN in Lunar applications, spacecrafts are also required to improve their onboard antenna power and efficiency of the transmission. However, there is an important aggregate cost trade between adding capabilities to every spacecraft and adding to a capacity on the ground that serves multiple spacecraft [6]. A weak GPS system can provide PNT service while the user spacecraft is bound to the Moon, leveraging a single, steerable high gain antenna with the relatively narrow beam which includes all the sources in its field of view [7]. However, the higher the altitude the receiver is above the GPS constellations, the poorer and the weaker are the relative geometry and the received signal powers, respectively, leading to a significant navigation accuracy reduction [8]. The transmitted power becomes weaker with increasing distance from the Earth as well as signals tracked from one of the side lobes of the GPS antenna pattern. As a results, the number of visible satellites and relative geometric condition of the GPS satellites at very high altitude drops dramatically and reduces the navigation solution accuracy. Therefore, the weak GPS system is also not an ideal way to provide PNT service to upcoming Lunar missions when considering its limited geometric condition and the recued navigation accuracy. Another navigation approach on the Moon is being developed, similar to the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) on Earth, aiming to offer navigation service with continuous 24/7 coverage across the entire Lunar surface. For example, lunar communications relay and navigation systems (LCRNS) by NASA and Lunar navigation satellite systems (LNSS) by JAXA are designed to serve as dedicated Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) systems for the Moon. However, designing a dedicated LNSS and PNT service involves additional challenges, which are unique to the lunar environment, including limited payload capacity for the CubeSat platform, i.e., the size, weight, and power (SWaP) of the onboard clock, limited lunar ground monitoring stations, and limited financial investment as compared to the legacy Earth-GPS [9]. NASA’s focus on utilizing CubeSat platforms on the Moon leads to an alternative Lunar navigation platform that leverages the existing Lunar science and exploration assets. The small satellites used in Lunar missions can be used to create a low-cost, autonomous, ad-hoc, and on-demand mission-centric Lunar PNT swarm capable of providing PNT services to these low-cost lunar missions [10]. As upcoming Lunar missions will often operate at low-altitude about 30 km to 100 km for scientific observations and mapping purposes, the low-altitude orbital constellations could be employed to create an ad-hoc Lunar PNT system. However, several issues must be addressed, such as the instability of these orbits, which often require maintenance or are only suitable for short-duration missions, operating for fewer than 90 days. Additionally, at an altitude of 100 km, the satellites have a limited period during which they are above the horizon and capable of providing PNT service to users. The implementation of a non-dedicated, ad-hoc Lunar navigation constellation facilitates on-demand PNT services. A preliminary study of ad-hoc Lunar PNT system was conducted using 21 spacecraft in 5,5000 km altitude frozen orbits to test its feasibility and a basic performance of orbital asset localization among ad-hoc Lunar constellations in small satellites format [10]. These swarm assets are designed for autonomous localization with minimal Earth interaction, reducing dependency on bandwidth and ground resources. The design in [10] demonstrated the feasibility of a decentralized PNT approach, specifically employing a DEKF approach for state estimation, which helps minimize onboard operating costs. The DEKF method distributes computation across individual satellites, which lightens the computational load while maintaining accuracy in orbit ephemeris and clock offsets, similar to centralized systems [11]. In a follow-on study [12], each spacecraft was limited to 2 communications antennae, forcing the selection of measurements and scheduling spacecraft activities to perform the measurements. A matching algorithm is implemented to select the best measurements and schedule position estimation updates. The decentralized localization performance is also investigated with increasing levels of network degradation for swarm assets considering the impact of intermittent and permanent communication failure, to demonstrate the robustness and fidelity of the decentralized Lunar PNT service [13]. This study confirmed that the ad-hoc PNT constellations in frozen orbit are highly robust and resilient to communication failures. However, unlike frozen orbit swarm assets, the low-altitude satellites have a limited ground view at an altitude of 100 km, where the ad-hoc Lunar constellation consists of 98 low-altitude satellites, evenly distributed across seven circular polar orbital planes, alongside two satellites in a frozen orbit at an altitude of 5,500 km (Figure 1). Therefore, the number of satellites visible to ground users is significantly limited in low-altitude orbit constellations. As each visibility of a spacecraft remains intact for only a few ticks before it moves out of the field of view, the ground user encounters challenges in maintaining continuous navigation service, resulting in sparse availability and provision of Lunar PNT system. Consequently, service availability is primarily restricted to the Lunar South Pole region (Figure 2). Given these limitations and concerns, the localization performance of low-altitude swarm assets will be assessed in this study. We focus on the investigation of the localization performance of low-altitude swarm assets and ground users near the Lunar South Pole. The overall flow of the Lunar PNT simulation incorporates the DEKF approach of asset localization and the weighted least-squares approach in user localization (Figure 3). The autonomous Lunar PNT simulation is primarily implemented in MATLAB, where the DEKF based on the matching scheduler is implemented with Google’s OR-tools as a model builder and Gurobi optimization tool as a backend solver. The General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) is utilized to generate ephemeris data for swarm assets, and accounts for satellite orbital details, mass, and perturbations like solar radiation pressure and drag coefficients. Each ephemeris dataset is produced in the Moon International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF) inertial coordinate system. For state estimation, the distributed swarm assets rely on two-way Inter-Satellite Link (ISL) measurements, which involve tracking pseudoranges and relative velocities between visible satellites and anchor nodes during each observation. Numerical evaluations of the decentralized localization process are conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the low-altitude PNT system in providing reliable navigation services. The main approach involves using DEKF and CEKF to localize 100 satellites in low-altitude constellations, where the CEKF is implemented to serve as a baseline for comparing the performance of distributed algorithms. In both cases, we evaluate ‘fully sampled’ measurements from all available assets, and ‘two ISL’ measurements when spacecraft are constrained to have only two antennas. We test four estimation techniques: CEKF fully sampled, CEKF two ISL, DEKF fully sampled, and DEKF two ISL filters. As the DEKF update cycle is comprised of network setup, communication, and computations, a global broadcast network and 2-way ISL network setup will take from 4 to 6 minutes as maximum [12]. In this simulation, the DEKF update cycle is set to 10 minutes, including a 4-minute latency for obtaining and computing the actual measurement updates. We experiment an increased update cycle to demonstrate the feasibility and evaluate the impact on localization performance using various tuning values for measurement noise covariances (Figures 4 and 5). By comparing centralized and decentralized approaches using a matching algorithm, we analyze the influence of cross-correlation factors in the covariance matrix, assuming 100% reliability of all assets and measurements. The increased frequency and the adjustments of tuning parameters reveal distinct error patterns between the two scenarios. The localization accuracy of the swarm assets and ground users is assessed by taking the median error across 100 assets and one ground user (84.9°S, 137.5°E) over 7-day simulation period (Table 1). Since the user localization accuracy is significantly affected by the performance of the swarm assets, it is crucial to maintain high localization accuracy within the swarm. This study will continue to explore decentralized filtering for autonomous LPNT operations, with further investigation of an 'iterative' matching approach which enumerates every valid matching pair, planned for the following month.

Yeji Kim↗

Disposal Trajectories from Near Rectilinear Halo Orbits

After completion of a resupply mission to NASA's proposed Lunar Orbital Platform - Gateway, safe disposal of the Logistics Module is required. One potential option is disposal to heliocentric space. This investigation includes an exploration of the trajectory escape dynamics from an Earth-Moon Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit (NRHO) and applies these insights to the design of a low-cost heliocentric Logistics Module disposal option. The effects of the solar gravitational perturbations are assessed in both the bicircular restricted 4-body problem and in an ephemeris force model.

Boudad, Kenza K.↗

GRAIL Refinements to Lunar Seismic Structure

Joint interpretation of disparate geophysical datasets helps reduce drawbacks that can result from analyzing them individually. The Apollo seismic network was situated on the lunar nearside surface in a roughly equilateral triangle having sides approximately 1000 km long, with stations 12/14 nearly co-located at one corner. Due to this limited geographical extent, near-surface ray coverage from moonquakes is low, but increases with depth. In comparison, gravity surveys and their resulting gravity anomaly maps have traditionally offered optimal resolution at crustal depths. Gravimetric maps and seismic data sets are therefore well suited to joint inversion, since the complementary information reduces inherent model ambiguity. Previous joint inversions of the Apollo seismic data (seismic phase arrival times) and Clementine- or Lunar Prospector-derived gravity data (mass and moment of inertia) attempted to recover the subsurface structure of the Moon by focusing on hypothetical lunar compositions that explored the density/velocity relationship. These efforts typically searched for the best fitting thermodynamically calculated velocity/density model, and allowed variables like core size, velocity, and/or composition to vary freely. Seismic velocity profiles derived from the Apollo seismic data through travel time inversion vary both in the depth of the crust and mantle layers, and the seismic velocities and densities assigned to those layers. The lunar mass and moment of inertia likewise only constrain gross variations in the density profile beyond that of a uniform density sphere. As a result, composition and structure models previously obtained by jointly inverting these data retain the original uncertainties inherent in the input data sets. We perform a joint inversion of Apollo seismic delay times and gravity data collected by the GRAIL lunar gravity mission, in order to recover seismic velocity and density as a function of latitude, longitude, and depth within the Moon. We relate density (p) to seismic velocity (v) using a depth-dependent linear relationship. The corresponding coefficient (B) can reflect a variety of material properties, including temperature and composition. The inversion seeks to recover the set of p, v, and B perturbations that minimize (in a least-squares sense) the difference between the observed and calculated data.

Weber, Renee C.↗

On the formation of the lunar mascons

A new mascon hypothesis is proposed which accounts for: (1) the existence of lunar mascons for more than 3 b.y., (2) the evidence for extensive volcanic activity from 3.7 to 3.2 b.y. ago, (3) the existence of negative gravity anomaly rings, (4) insufficient mare material in Mare Orientale, and (5) the lack of mascons associated with craters smaller than 200 km diameter. Moreover, it provides a simple mechanism for mass transfer into the basins. The hypothesis is based on the perturbations introduced into a spherically symmetric thermal evolution model of the moon by a giant impact.

Arkani-Hamed, J.↗

Phase Control and Eclipse Avoidance in Near Rectilinear Halo Orbits

The baseline trajectory proposed for the Gateway is a southern Earth-Moon L2 Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit (NRHO). Designed to avoid eclipses, the NRHO exhibits a resonance with the lunar synodic period. The current investigation details the eclipse behavior in the baseline NRHO. Then, phase control is added to the orbit maintenance algorithm to regulate perilune passage time and maintain the eclipse-free characteristics of the Gateway reference orbit. A targeting strategy is designed to periodically target back to the long-horizon virtual reference if the orbit diverges over time in the presence of additional perturbations.

Davis, Diane C.↗

Corvid meteoroids are not ejecta from the Giordano Bruno impact

The study points out three difficulties with the hypothesis of Hartung (1993) that the Corvid meteor system, observed only once in 1937, may be the return of the clump of ejecta from the formation of a lunar crater, specifically, an event recorded in the chronicles of Gervase of Canterbury on June 25, 1178, which Hartung (1976) previously suggested may be an eyewitness account of the formation of the lunar crater Giordano Bruno. On the basis of this, he predicts that another Corvid shower may be observed in 2003 or 2006. This hypothesis is rejected on the contention that it is implausible that a clump of ejecta could be launched into heliocentric orbit with a low enough dispersion in velocity among separate pieces that it would produce a meteor shower in just one year and not others. Subsequent perturbations by the earth on parts of the clump passing near the earth but not impacting would destroy the coherence of the clump on a time scale much shorter than the 759-yr interval proposed. There are so many orbits that could yield a shower after 759 yr that it is unlikely that a prediction of a return in a specific year would be correct.

Harris, A. W.↗

GRAIL Refinements to Lunar Seismic Structure

Joint interpretation of disparate geophysical datasets helps to reduce drawbacks that can result from analyzing them individually. The Apollo seismic network was situated on the lunar nearside surface in a roughly equilateral triangle having sides approximately 1000 km long, with stations 12/14 nearly co‐located at one corner. Due to this limited geographical extent, near‐surface ray coverage from moonquakes is low, but increases with depth. In comparison, gravity surveys and their resulting gravity anomaly maps have traditionally offered optimal resolution at crustal depths. Gravimetric maps and seismic data sets are therefore well suited to joint inversion, since the complementary information reduces inherent model ambiguity. Previous joint inversions of the Apollo seismic data (seismic phase arrival times) and Clementine‐ or Lunar Prospector‐derived gravity data (mass and moment of inertia) attempted to recover the subsurface structure of the Moon by focusing on hypothetical lunar compositions that explore the density/velocity relationship. These efforts typically search for the best fitting thermodynamically calculated velocity/density model, allowing variables like core size, velocity, and/or composition to vary freely. Seismic velocity profiles previously derived from the Apollo seismic data through inversion of travel times vary both in the depth of the crust and mantle layers, and the seismic velocities and densities assigned to those layers. The lunar mass and moment of inertia likewise only constrain gross variations in the density profile beyond that of a uniform density sphere. As a result, composition and structure models previously obtained by jointly inverting these data retain the original uncertainties inherent in the input data sets. We will perform a joint inversion of Apollo seismic delay times and gravity data collected by the GRAIL lunar gravity mission, in order to recover seismic velocities and density as a function of latitude, longitude, and depth within the Moon. We will relate density to seismic velocity using a linear relationship that is allowed to be depth‐dependent. The corresponding coefficient (B) can reflect a variety of material properties that vary with depth, including temperature and composition. The inversion seeks to recover the set of density, velocity, and B‐coefficient perturbations that minimize (in a least‐squares sense) the difference between the observed and calculated data.

Weber, Renee C.↗

Impacts and evolution: future prospects

The discipline of astrobiology includes the dynamics of biological evolution. One of the major ways that the cosmos influences life is through the catastrophic environmental disruptions caused when comets and asteroids collide with a planet. We now recognize that such impacts have caused mass extinctions and played a major role in determining the evolution of life on Earth. The time-averaged impact flux as a function of projectile energy can be derived from lunar cratering statistics as well as the current population of near Earth asteroids (NEAs). Effects of impacts of various energies can be modeled, using data from historic impacts [such as the Cretaceous-Tertiary (KT) impactor 65 million years ago] and the observed 1994 bombardment of Jupiter by fragments of Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9. It is of particular interest to find from such models that the terrestrial environment is highly vulnerable to perturbation from impacts, so that even such a small event as the KT impact (by a projectile 10-15 km in diameter) can lead to a mass extinction. Similar considerations allow us to model the effects of still smaller (and much more likely) impacts, down to the size of the asteroid that exploded over Tunguska in 1908 (energy approximately 10 megatons). Combining the impact flux with estimates of environmental and ecological effects reveals that the greatest contemporary hazard is associated with impactors near 1 million megatons in energy (approximately 2 km in diameter for an asteroid). The current impact hazard is significant relative to other natural hazards, and arguments can be developed to illuminate a variety of public policy issues. The first priority in any plan for defense against impactors is to survey the population of Earth-crossing NEAs and project their orbits forward in time. This is the purpose of the Spaceguard Survey, which has already found more than half of the NEAs >1 km in diameter. If there is an NEA on a collision course with Earth, it can be discovered and the impact predicted with decades or more of warning. It is then possible to consider how to deflect or disrupt the NEA. Unlike other natural hazards, the impact risk can be largely eliminated, given sufficient advanced knowledge to take action against the threatening projectile.

Directed Molecular Evolution↗

Multi-Body Orbit Architectures for Lunar South Pole Coverage

A potential ground station at the lunar south pole has prompted studies of orbit architectures that ensure adequate coverage. Constant communications can be achieved with two spacecraft in different combinations of Earth-Moon libration point orbits. Halo and vertical families, as well as other orbits near L1 and L2 are considered. The investigation includes detailed results using nine different orbits with periods ranging from 7 to 16 days. Natural solutions are generated in a full ephemeris model, including solar perturbations. A preliminary station-keeping analysis is also completed.

Grebow, D. J.↗

GRAIL Refinements to Lunar Seismic Structure

Joint interpretation of disparate geophysical datasets helps reduce drawbacks that can result from analyzing them individually. The Apollo seismic network was situated on the lunar nearside surface in a roughly equilateral triangle having sides approximately 1000 km long, with stations 12/14 nearly co-located at one corner. Due to this limited geographical extent, near-surface ray coverage from moonquakes is low, but increase with depth. In comparison, gravity surveys and their resulting gravity anomaly maps have traditionally offered optimal resolution at crustal depths. Gravimetric maps and seismic data sets are therefor well suited to joint inversion, since the complementary information reduces inherent model ambiguity. We will perform a joint inversion of Apollo seismic delay times and gravity data collected by GRAIL lunar gravity mission, in order to recover seismic velocity and density as a function of latitude, longitude and depth within the Moon. We will relate density (rho) to seismic velocity (v) using a linear relationship that is allowed to be depth-dependent. The corresponding coefficient (B) can reflect a variety of material properties that vary with depth, including temperature and composition. The inversion seeks to recover the set of rho, v, and B perturbations that minimize (in a least-squares sense) the difference between the observed and calculated data.

Weber, Renee C.↗

Grail Refinements to Lunar Seismic Structure

To probe a planet's interior, seismology provides the most direct constraints on the variables that govern the dynamic properties of the body. However, the GRAIL (Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory) mission's high-resolution measurements of the lunar gravity field provide constraints on crustal thickness, mantle structure, core radius and stratification, and core state (solid vs. molten). These data complement seismic investigations, and joint interpretation permits improved constraints on the Moon's internal structure. Joint interpretation of disparate geophysical datasets helps reduce drawbacks that can result from analyzing them individually. The Apollo seismic network was situated on the lunar nearside surface in a roughly equilateral triangle having sides approximately 1000 km long, with stations 12/14 nearly co-located at one corner. Due to this limited geographical extent, near-surface ray coverage from moonquakes is low, but increase with depth. In comparison, gravity surveys and their resulting gravity anomaly maps have traditionally offered optimal resolution at crustal depths. Gravimetric maps and seismic data sets are therefor well suited to joint inversion, since the complementary information reduces inherent model ambiguity. We will perform a joint inversion of Apollo seismic delay times and gravity data collected by GRAIL lunar gravity mission, in order to recover seismic velocity and density as a function of latitude, longitude and depth within the Moon. We will relate density (rho) to seismic velocity (v) using a linear relationship that is allowed to be depth-dependent. The corresponding coefficient (B) can reflect a variety of material properties that vary with depth, including temperature and composition. The inversion seeks to recover the set of rho, v, and B perturbations that minimize (in a least-squares sense) the difference between the observed and calculated data.

Weber, Renee C.↗

Lunar ferroan anorthosites - Mineralogy, compositional variations, and petrogenesis

Results of a study of 16 samples from the anorthositic ferroan subgroup, or 'typical' ferroan anorthosites, are reported. The presence of heterogeneous, bimodal, and/or trimodal pyroxene compositions suggests that some of the anorthosites are polymict rocks; however, they are composed entirely of ferroan-anorthosite-suite lithologies. It is suggested that complex processes operated during the formation of the ferroan anorthosites. It is argued that original igneous compositional characteristics were altered during and/or after crystallization. Processes operative during anorthosite formation may have included some mixing of different melts, trapping of variable amounts of intercumulus liquid, postcrystallization redistribution of elements, or perturbations both during adcumulus growth and subsequent to crystallization by impact events.

Mcgee, J. J.↗

Dealing with the Asteroid Impact Hazard

The small fraction of the asteroids with Earth-crossing or Earth-approaching orbits is of special interest to us because many will eventually impact our planet. The time-averaged impact flux as a function of projectile energy can be derived from lunar cratering statistics, although we have little information on the possible variability of this flux over time. The effects of impacts of various energies can be modeled, using data from historic impacts (such as the KT impactor 65 million years ago), nuclear explosive testing, and the observed 1994 bombardment of Jupiter by fragments of comet Shoemaker-Levy 9. It is of particular interest to find from such models that the terrestrial environment is highly vulnerable to perturbation from impacts, so that even such a small event as the KT impact (by a projectile roughly 15 km in diameter) can lead to a mass extinction. Combining the impact flux with estimates of environmental and ecological effects reveals that the greatest contemporary hazard is associated with impactors near one million megatons energy. The current impact hazard is significant relative to other natural hazards, and arguments can be developed to illuminate a variety of public policy issues. These include the relative risk of different impact scenarios and the associated costs and probability of success of countermeasures. It is generally agreed that the first step is to survey and catalogue the thousand-or-so Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs), and we review the status of the Spaceguard NEA Survey. We compare the efficiency of various ground and space-based approaches and consider the challenges of international coordination and the problems and opportunities associated with communicating the results with the press and the public. It is also important to reflect on how the impact hazard might be dealt with by both national governments and international decision-making bodies, and to anticipate ways of mitigating the danger if a NEA were located on an apparent Earth-impact trajectory. As the most extreme known example of a natural hazard with low probability but severe global consequences. the NEA impact hazard calls for the most careful consideration and planning.

Morrison, David↗

The Oort cloud and the Galaxy - Dynamical interactions

The results of recent dynamical studies of the Oort cloud and its interaction with the Galaxy are discussed. Various studies which used Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the evolution of comets in the Oort cloud and the manner in which they are injected into the planetary region are reviewed. Work done on perturbation of cometary orbits by stars, interstellar clouds, and the Galaxy is examined. The growing consensus that there is a massive inner Oort cloud with a population up to 100 times that of the dynamically active outer cloud is addressed. Variations on the Oort hypothesis are discussed. It is argued that speculations about the existence of a small unseen solar companion star or a tenth planet causing periodic comet showers from the inner Oort cloud are not supported by dynamical studies or analyses of the terrestrial and lunar cratering record. Evidence for Oort clouds around other stars is summarized.

Weissman, Paul R.↗

i-SAIRAS '90; Proceedings of the International Symposium on Artificial Intelligence, Robotics and Automation in Space, Kobe, Japan, Nov. 18-20, 1990

The present conference on artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, and automation in space encompasses robot systems, lunar and planetary robots, advanced processing, expert systems, knowledge bases, issues of operation and management, manipulator control, and on-orbit service. Specific issues addressed include fundamental research in AI at NASA, the FTS dexterous telerobot, a target-capture experiment by a free-flying robot, the NASA Planetary Rover Program, the Katydid system for compiling KEE applications to Ada, and speech recognition for robots. Also addressed are a knowledge base for real-time diagnosis, a pilot-in-the-loop simulation of an orbital docking maneuver, intelligent perturbation algorithms for space scheduling optimization, a fuzzy control method for a space manipulator system, hyperredundant manipulator applications, robotic servicing of EOS instruments, and a summary of astronaut inputs on automation and robotics for the Space Station Freedom.

Source record↗

Assessment and Verification of SLS Block 1-B Exploration Upper Stage State and Stage Disposal Performance

One of the SLS Navigation System's key performance requirements is a constraint on the payload system's delta-v allocation to correct for insertion errors due to vehicle state uncertainty at payload separation. The SLS navigation team has developed a Delta-Delta-V analysis approach to assess the effect on trajectory correction maneuver (TCM) design needed to correct for navigation errors. This approach differs from traditional covariance analysis based methods and makes no assumptions with regard to the propagation of the state dynamics. This allows for consideration of non-linearity in the propagation of state uncertainties. The Delta-Delta-V analysis approach re-optimizes perturbed SLS mission trajectories by varying key mission states in accordance with an assumed state error. The state error is developed from detailed vehicle 6-DOF Monte Carlo analysis or generated using covariance analysis. These perturbed trajectories are compared to a nominal trajectory to determine necessary TCM design. To implement this analysis approach, a tool set was developed which combines the functionality of a 3-DOF trajectory optimization tool, Copernicus, and a detailed 6-DOF vehicle simulation tool, Marshall Aerospace Vehicle Representation in C (MAVERIC). In addition to delta-v allocation constraints on SLS navigation performance, SLS mission requirement dictate successful upper stage disposal. Due to engine and propellant constraints, the SLS Exploration Upper Stage (EUS) must dispose into heliocentric space by means of a lunar fly-by maneuver. As with payload delta-v allocation, upper stage disposal maneuvers must place the EUS on a trajectory that maximizes the probability of achieving a heliocentric orbit post Lunar fly-by considering all sources of vehicle state uncertainty prior to the maneuver. To ensure disposal, the SLS navigation team has developed an analysis approach to derive optimal disposal guidance targets. This approach maximizes the state error covariance prior to the maneuver to develop and re-optimize a nominal disposal maneuver (DM) target that, if achieved, would maximize the potential for successful upper stage disposal. For EUS disposal analysis, a set of two tools was developed. The first considers only the nominal pre-disposal maneuver state, vehicle constraints, and an a priori estimate of the state error covariance. In the analysis, the optimal nominal disposal target is determined. This is performed by re-formulating the trajectory optimization to consider constraints on the eigenvectors of the error ellipse applied to the nominal trajectory. A bisection search methodology is implemented in the tool to refine these dispersions resulting in the maximum dispersion feasible for successful disposal via lunar fly-by. Success is defined based on the probability that the vehicle will not impact the lunar surface and will achieve a characteristic energy (C3) relative to the Earth such that it is no longer in the Earth-Moon system. The second tool propagates post-disposal maneuver states to determine the success of disposal for provided trajectory achieved states. This is performed using the optimized nominal target within the 6-DOF vehicle simulation. This paper will discuss the application of the Delta-Delta-V analysis approach for performance evaluation as well as trajectory re-optimization so as to demonstrate the system's capability in meeting performance constraints. Additionally, further discussion of the implementation of assessing disposal analysis will be provided.

Patrick, Sean↗

Ringing After a High-Energy Collision: Ambipolar Oscillations During Impact Plasma Expansion

High-velocity impacts on the Moon and other airless bodies deliver energy and material to the lunar surface and exosphere. The target and i mpactor material may become vaporized and ionized to form a collision al plasma that expands outward and eventually becomes collisionless. In the present work, kinetic simulations of the later collision less stage of impact plasma expansion are performed. Attention is paid to characterizing "ambipolar oscillations" in which thermodynamic distur bances propagate outward to generate "ringing" within the expanding e lectron cloud, which could radiate an electromagnetic signature of lo cal plasma conditions. The process is not unlike a beam-plasma intera ction, with the perturbing electron population in the present case ac ting as a highly thermal "beam" that resonates along the expanding de nsity gradient. Understanding the electromagnetic aspects of impact p lasma expansion could provide insight into the lasting effects of nat ural, impact-generated currents on airless surfaces and charging haza rds to human exploration infrastructure and instrumentation.

Zimmerman, M. I.↗