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Neural Network Prediction of Strong Lensing Systems with Domain Adaptation and Uncertainty Quantification

Modeling strong gravitational lenses is computationally expensive for the complex data from modern and next-generation cosmic surveys. Deep learning has emerged as a promising approach for finding lenses and predicting lensing parameters, such as the Einstein radius. Mean-variance Estimators (MVEs) are a common approach for obtaining aleatoric (data) uncertainties from a neural network prediction. However, neural networks have not been demonstrated to perform well on out-of-domain target data successfully - e.g., when trained on simulated data and applied to real, observational data. In this work, we perform the first study of the efficacy of MVEs in combination with unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) on strong lensing data. The source domain data is noiseless, and the target domain data has noise mimicking modern cosmology surveys. We find that adding UDA to MVE increases the accuracy on the target data by a factor of about two over an MVE model without UDA. Including UDA also permits much more well-calibrated aleatoric uncertainty predictions. Advancements in this approach may enable future applications of MVE models to real observational data.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Lens Model Accuracy in the Expected LSST Lensed AGN Sample

Strong gravitational lensing of active galactic nuclei (AGN) enables measurements of cosmological parameters through time-delay cosmography (TDC). With data from the upcoming LSST survey, we anticipate using a sample of O(1000) lensed AGN for TDC. To prepare for this dataset and enable this measurement, we construct and analyze a realistic mock sample of 1300 systems drawn from the OM10 (Oguri & Marshall 2010) catalog of simulated lenses with AGN sources at $z<3.1$ in order to test a key aspect of the analysis pipeline, that of the lens modeling. We realize the lenses as power law elliptical mass distributions and simulate 5-year LSST i-band coadd images. From every image, we infer the lens mass model parameters using neural posterior estimation (NPE). Focusing on the key model parameters, $θ_E$ (the Einstein Radius) and $γ_{lens}$ (the projected mass density profile slope), with consistent mass-light ellipticity correlations in test and training data, we recover $θ_E$ with less than 1% bias per lens, 6.5% precision per lens and $γ_{lens}$ with less than 3% bias per lens, 8% precision per lens. We find that lens light subtraction prior to modeling is only useful when applied to data sampled from the training prior. If emulated deconvolution is applied to the data prior to modeling, precision improves across all parameters by a factor of 2. Finally, we combine the inferred lens mass models using Bayesian Hierarchical Inference to recover the global properties of the lens sample with less than 1% bias.

Venkatraman, Padmavathi [Illinois U., Urbana; KIPA↗

Cosmological Constraints from Full-Scale Clustering and Galaxy-Galaxy Lensing with DESI DR1

We present constraints on cosmic structure growth from the analysis of galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing with galaxies from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 1. We analyze four samples drawn from the Bright Galaxy Survey (BGS) and the Luminous Red Galaxy (LRG) target classes. Projected galaxy clustering measurements from DESI are supplemented with lensing measurements from the Dark Energy Survey (DES), the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS), and the Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) survey around the same targets. Our method relies on a simulation-based modeling framework using the AbacusSummit simulations and a complex halo occupation distribution model that incorporates assembly bias. We analyze scales down to $0.4 \, h^{-1} \, \mathrm{Mpc}$ for clustering and $2.5 \, h^{-1} \, \mathrm{Mpc}$ for lensing, leading to stringent constraints on $S_8 = σ_8 \sqrt{Ω_\mathrm{m} / 0.3}$ and $Ω_\mathrm{m}$ when fixing other cosmological parameters to those preferred by the CMB. We find $S_8 = 0.794 \pm 0.023$ and $Ω_\mathrm{m} = 0.295 \pm 0.012$ when using lensing measurements from DES and KiDS. Similarly, for HSC, we find $S_8 = 0.793 \pm 0.017$ and $Ω_\mathrm{m} = 0.303 \pm 0.010$ when assuming the best-fit photometric redshift offset suggested by the HSC collaboration. Overall, our results are in good agreement with other results in the literature while continuing to highlight the constraining power of non-linear scales.

Lange, Johannes U. [American U.] (ORCID:0000000224↗

The gravitational lensing imprints of DES Y3 superstructures on the CMB: a matched filtering approach

Low-density cosmic voids gravitationally lens the cosmic microwave background (CMB), leaving a negative imprint on the CMB convergence |$\kappa$|⁠. This effect provides insight into the distribution of matter within voids, and can also be used to study the growth of structure. We measure this lensing imprint by cross-correlating the Planck CMB lensing convergence map with voids identified in the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) data set, covering approximately 4200 deg|$^2$| of the sky. We use two distinct void-finding algorithms: a 2D void-finder that operates on the projected galaxy density field in thin redshift shells, and a new code, Voxel, which operates on the full 3D map of galaxy positions. We employ an optimal matched filtering method for cross-correlation, using the Marenostrum Institut de Ciències de l’Espai N-body simulation both to establish the template for the matched filter and to calibrate detection significances. Using the DES Y3 photometric luminous red galaxy sample, we measure |$A_\kappa$|⁠, the amplitude of the observed lensing signal relative to the simulation template, obtaining |$A_\kappa = 1.03 \pm 0.22$| (⁠|$4.6\sigma$| significance) for Voxel and |$A_\kappa = 1.02 \pm 0.17$| (⁠|$5.9\sigma$| significance) for 2D voids, both consistent with Lambda cold dark matter expectations. We additionally invert the 2D void-finding process to identify superclusters in the projected density field, for which we measure |$A_\kappa = 0.87 \pm 0.15$| (⁠|$5.9\sigma$| significance). The leading source of noise in our measurements is Planck noise, implying that data from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope, South Pole Telescope and CMB-S4 will increase sensitivity and allow for more precise measurements.

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Biasing from galaxy trough and peak profiles with the DES Y3 redMaGiC galaxies and the weak lensing mass map

We measure the correspondence between the distribution of galaxies and matter around troughs and peaks in the projected galaxy density, by comparing redMaGiC galaxies (0.15 < z < 0.65) to weak lensing mass maps from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Y3 data release. We obtain stacked profiles, as a function of angle θ, of the galaxy density contrast δ g and the weak lensing convergence κ, in the vicinity of these identified troughs and peaks, referred to as ‘void’ and ‘cluster’ superstructures. The ratio of the profiles depend mildly on θ, indicating good consistency between the profile shapes. We model the amplitude of this ratio using a function $F(\boldsymbol{\eta }, \theta )$ that depends on cosmological parameters $\boldsymbol{\eta }$, scaled by the galaxy bias. We construct templates of $F(\boldsymbol{\eta }, \theta )$ using a suite of N-body (‘Gower Street’) simulations forward-modelled with DES Y3-like noise and systematics. We discuss and quantify the caveats of using a linear bias model to create galaxy maps from the simulation dark matter shells. We measure the galaxy bias in three lens tomographic bins (near to far): $2.32^{+0.86}_{-0.27}, 2.18^{+0.86}_{-0.23}, 1.86^{+0.82}_{-0.23}$ for voids, and $2.46^{+0.73}_{-0.27}, 3.55^{+0.96}_{-0.55}, 4.27^{+0.36}_{-1.14}$ for clusters, assuming the best-fit Planck cosmology. Similar values with ∼0.1σ shifts are obtained assuming the mean DES Y3 cosmology. The biases from troughs and peaks are broadly consistent, although a larger bias is derived for peaks, which is also larger than those measured from the DES Y3 3 × 2-point analysis. This method shows an interesting avenue for measuring field-level bias that can be applied to future lensing surveys.

cosmology: observations↗

The DESI-Lensing Mock Challenge: large-scale cosmological analysis of 3x2-pt statistics

The current generation of large galaxy surveys will test the cosmological model by combining multiple types of observational probes. Realising the statistical promise of these new datasets requires rigorous attention to all aspects of analysis including cosmological measurements, modelling, covariance and parameter likelihood. In this paper we present the results of an end-to-end simulation study designed to test the analysis pipeline for the combination of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Year 1 galaxy redshift dataset and separate weak gravitational lensing information from the Kilo-Degree Survey, Dark Energy Survey and Hyper-Suprime-Cam Survey. Our analysis employs the 3x2-pt correlation functions including cosmic shear and galaxy-galaxy lensing, together with the projected correlation function of the spectroscopic DESI lenses. We build realistic simulations of these datasets including galaxy halo occupation distributions, photometric redshift errors, weights, multiplicative shear calibration biases and magnification. We calculate the analytical covariance of these correlation functions including the Gaussian, noise and super-sample contributions, and show that our covariance determination agrees with estimates based on the ensemble of simulations. We use a Bayesian inference platform to demonstrate that we can recover the fiducial cosmological parameters of the simulation within the statistical error margin of the experiment, investigating the sensitivity to scale cuts. This study is the first in a sequence of papers in which we present and validate the large-scale 3x2-pt cosmological analysis of DESI-Y1.

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When Spectral Modeling Meets Convolutional Networks: A Method for Discovering Reionization-era Lensed Quasars in Multiband Imaging Data

Over the last two decades, around 300 quasars have been discovered at z ≳ 6, yet only one has been identified as being strongly gravitationally lensed. We explore a new approach—enlarging the permitted spectral parameter space, while introducing a new spatial geometry veto criterion—which is implemented via image-based deep learning. We first apply this approach to a systematic search for reionization-era lensed quasars, using data from the Dark Energy Survey, the Visible and Infrared Survey Telescope for Astronomy Hemisphere Survey, and the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer. Our search method consists of two main parts: (i) the preselection of the candidates, based on their spectral energy distributions (SEDs), using catalog-level photometry; and (ii) relative probability calculations of the candidates being a lens or some contaminant, utilizing a convolutional neural network (CNN) classification. The training data sets are constructed by painting deflected point-source lights over actual galaxy images, to generate realistic galaxy–quasar lens models, optimized to find systems with small image separations, i.e., Einstein radii of θ E ≤ 1''. Visual inspection is then performed for sources with CNN scores of P lens > 0.1, which leads us to obtain 36 newly selected lens candidates, which are awaiting spectroscopic confirmation. These findings show that automated SED modeling and deep learning pipelines, supported by modest human input, are a promising route for detecting strong lenses from large catalogs, which can overcome the veto limitations of primarily dropout-based SED selection approaches.

High-redshift galaxies↗

TDCOSMO - XVI. Measurement of the Hubble constant from the lensed quasar WGD 2038–4008

Time-delay cosmography is a powerful technique to constrain cosmological parameters, particularly the Hubble constant (H0). The TDCOSMO Collaboration is performing an ongoing analysis of lensed quasars to constrain cosmology using this method. In this work, we obtain constraints from the lensed quasar WGD 2038−4008 using new time-delay measurements and previous mass models by TDCOSMO. This is the first TDCOSMO lens to incorporate multiple lens modeling codes and the full time-delay covariance matrix into the cosmological inference. The models are fixed before the time delay is measured, and the analysis is performed blinded with respect to the cosmological parameters to prevent unconscious experimenter bias. We obtain DΔ t = 1.68−0.38+0.40 Gpc using two families of mass models, a power-law describing the total mass distribution, and a composite model of baryons and dark matter, although the composite model is disfavored due to kinematics constraints. In a flat ΛCDM cosmology, we constrain the Hubble constant to be H0 = 65−14+23 km s−1 Mpc−1. The dominant source of uncertainty comes from the time delays, due to the low variability of the quasar. Future long-term monitoring, especially in the era of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time, could catch stronger quasar variability and further reduce the uncertainties. This system will be incorporated into an upcoming hierarchical analysis of the entire TDCOSMO sample, and improved time delays and spatially-resolved stellar kinematics could strengthen the constraints from this system in the future.Key words: gravitational lensing: strong / cosmological parameters / distance scale⋆ Corresponding author; kcwong19@gmail.com.⋆⋆ NHFP Einstein fellow.

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Modified gravitational wave propagation with higher modes and its degeneracies with lensing

Low-energy alternatives to General Relativity (GR) generically modify the phase of gravitational waves (GWs) during their propagation. As detector sensitivities increase, it becomes key to understand how these modifications affect the GW higher modes and to disentangle possible degeneracies with astrophysical phenomena. We apply a general formalism — the WKB approach — for solving analytically wave propagation in the spatial domain with a modified dispersion relation (MDR). We compare this WKB approach to applying a stationary phase approximation (SPA) in the temporal domain with time delays associated to the group or particle velocity. To this end, we extend the SPA to generic signals with higher modes, keeping careful track of reference phases and arrival times. We find that the WKB approach coincides with the SPA using the group velocity, in agreement with the principles of wave propagation. We then explore the degeneracies between a GW propagation with an MDR and a strongly-lensed GW in GR, since the latter can introduce a frequency-independent phase shift which is not degenerate with source parameters in the presence of higher modes. We find that for a particular MDR there is an exact degeneracy for wave propagation, unlike with the SPA for particle propagation. For the other cases, we search for the values of the MDR parameters that minimize the χ 2 and conclude that strongly-lensed GR GWs could be misinterpreted as GWs in modified gravity. As a result, future MDR constraints with higher mode GWs should include the possibility of frequency-independent phase shifts, allowing for the identification of modified gravity and strong lensing distortions at the same time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Cosmological constraints from the cross-correlation of DESI Luminous Red Galaxies with CMB lensing from Planck PR4 and ACT DR6

Here, we infer the growth of large scale structure over the redshift range 0.4 ≲ z ≲ 1 from the cross-correlation of spectroscopically calibrated Luminous Red Galaxies (LRGs) selected from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) legacy imaging survey with CMB lensing maps reconstructed from the latest Planck and ACT data. We adopt a hybrid effective field theory (HEFT) model that robustly regulates the cosmological information obtainable from smaller scales, such that our cosmological constraints are reliably derived from the (predominantly) linear regime. We perform an extensive set of bandpower- and parameter-level systematics checks to ensure the robustness of our results and to characterize the uniformity of the LRG sample. We demonstrate that our results are stable to a wide range of modeling assumptions, finding excellent agreement with a linear theory analysis performed on a restricted range of scales. From a tomographic analysis of the four LRG photometric redshift bins we find that the rate of structure growth is consistent with ΛCDM with an overall amplitude that is ≃ 5-7% lower than predicted by primary CMB measurements with modest (∼ 2σ) statistical significance. From the combined analysis of all four bins and their cross-correlations with Planck we obtain S 8 = 0.765 ± 0.023, which is less discrepant with primary CMB measurements than previous DESI LRG cross Planck CMB lensing results. From the cross-correlation with ACT we obtain S 8 = 0.790 +0.024 -0.027 , while when jointly analyzing Planck and ACT we find S 8 = 0.775 +0.019 -0.022 from our data alone and σ 8 = 0.772 +0.020 -0.023 with the addition of BAO data. These constraints are consistent with the latest Planck primary CMB analyses at the ≃ 1.6-2.2σ level, and are in excellent agreement with galaxy lensing surveys.

cosmological parameters from LSS↗

Observation and confirmation of nine strong-lensing systems in Dark Energy Survey Year 1 data

ABSTRACT We describe the observation and confirmation of nine new strong gravitational lenses discovered in Year 1 data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We created candidate lists based on (i) galaxy group and cluster samples, and (ii) photometrically selected galaxy samples. We selected 46 candidates through visual inspection and then used the Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph(GMOS) at the Gemini South telescope to acquire a spectroscopic follow-up of 21 of these candidates. Through an analysis of these spectroscopic follow-up data, we confirmed nine new lensing systems and rejected two candidates, and the analysis was inconclusive on 10 candidates. For each of the confirmed systems, our report measured spectroscopic properties, estimated source image–lens separations, and estimated enclosed masses as well. The sources that we targeted have an i-band surface brightness range of $i_{\rm SB} \sim 22\!-\!24\, {\rm mag}\,{\rm arcsec}^{-2}$ and a spectroscopic redshift range of zspec ∼ 0.8−2.6. The lens galaxies have a photometric redshift range of zlens ∼ 0.3−0.7. The lensing systems range in source image–lens separation from 2 to 9 arcsec and in enclosed mass from 1012 to 1013 M⊙.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

STRIDES: Spectroscopic and photometric characterization of the environment and effects of mass along the line of sight to the gravitational lenses DES J0408–5354 and WGD 2038–4008

In time-delay cosmography, three of the key ingredients are (1) determining the velocity dispersion of the lensing galaxy, (2) identifying galaxies and groups along the line of sight with sufficient proximity and mass to be included in the mass model, and (3) estimating the external convergence κ_ext from less massive structures that are not included in the mass model. We present results on all three of these ingredients for two time-delay lensed quad quasar systems, DES J0408–5354 and WGD 2038–4008 . We use the Gemini, Magellan, and VLT telescopes to obtain spectra to both measure the stellar velocity dispersions of the main lensing galaxies and to identify the line-of-sight galaxies in these systems. Next, we identify 10 groups in DES J0408–5354 and two groups in WGD 2038–4008 using a group-finding algorithm. We then identify the most significant galaxy and galaxy-group perturbers using the ‘flexion shift’ criterion. We determine the probability distribution function of the external convergence κ_ext for both of these systems based on our spectroscopy and on the DES-only multiband wide-field observations. Using weighted galaxy counts, calibrated based on the Millennium Simulation, we find that DES J0408–5354 is located in a significantly underdense environment, leading to a tight (width |$\sim 3{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$|⁠), negative-value κ_ext distribution. On the other hand, WGD 2038–4008 is located in an environment of close to unit density, and its low source redshift results in a much tighter κ_ext of |$\sim 1{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$|⁠, as long as no external shear constraints are imposed.

WGD 2038-4008↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Curved-sky weak lensing mass map reconstruction

ABSTRACT We present reconstructed convergence maps, mass maps, from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) third year (Y3) weak gravitational lensing data set. The mass maps are weighted projections of the density field (primarily dark matter) in the foreground of the observed galaxies. We use four reconstruction methods, each is a maximum a posteriori estimate with a different model for the prior probability of the map: Kaiser–Squires, null B-mode prior, Gaussian prior, and a sparsity prior. All methods are implemented on the celestial sphere to accommodate the large sky coverage of the DES Y3 data. We compare the methods using realistic ΛCDM simulations with mock data that are closely matched to the DES Y3 data. We quantify the performance of the methods at the map level and then apply the reconstruction methods to the DES Y3 data, performing tests for systematic error effects. The maps are compared with optical foreground cosmic-web structures and are used to evaluate the lensing signal from cosmic-void profiles. The recovered dark matter map covers the largest sky fraction of any galaxy weak lensing map to date.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Out of one, many: distinguishing time delays from lensed supernovae

ABSTRACT Gravitationally lensed Type Ia supernovae are an emerging probe with great potential for constraining dark energy, spatial curvature, and the Hubble constant. The multiple images and their time delayed and magnified fluxes may be unresolved, however, blended into a single light curve. We demonstrate methods without a fixed source template matching for extracting the individual images, determining whether there are one (no lensing) or two or four (lensed) images, and measuring the time delays between them that are valuable cosmological probes. We find 100 per cent success for determining the number of images for time delays greater than ∼10 d.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Deep learning unresolved lensed light curves

ABSTRACT Gravitationally lensed sources may have unresolved or blended multiple images, and for time varying sources, the light curves from individual images can overlap. We use convolutional neural nets to both classify the light curves as due to unlensed, double, or quad lensed sources and fit for the time delays. Focusing on lensed supernova systems with time delays Δt ≳ 6 d, we achieve 100 per cent precision and recall in identifying the number of images and then estimating the time delays to σΔt ≈ 1 d, with a 1000× speedup relative to our previous Monte Carlo technique. This also succeeds for flux noise levels $\sim 10{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$. For Δt ∈ [2, 6] d, we obtain 94–98 per cent accuracy, depending on image configuration. We also explore using partial light curves where observations only start near maximum light, without the rise time data, and quantify the success.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Forecasting the potential of weak lensing magnification to enhance LSST large-scale structure analyses

ABSTRACT Recent works have shown that weak lensing magnification must be included in upcoming large-scale structure analyses, such as for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), to avoid biasing the cosmological results. In this work, we investigate whether including magnification has a positive impact on the precision of the cosmological constraints, as well as being necessary to avoid bias. We forecast this using an LSST mock catalogue and a halo model to calculate the galaxy power spectra. We find that including magnification has little effect on the precision of the cosmological parameter constraints for an LSST galaxy clustering analysis, where the halo model parameters are additionally constrained by the galaxy luminosity function. In particular, we find that for the LSST gold sample (i < 25.3) including weak lensing magnification only improves the galaxy clustering constraint on Ωm by a factor of 1.03, and when using a very deep LSST mock sample (i < 26.5) by a factor of 1.3. Since magnification predominantly contributes to the clustering measurement and provides similar information to that of cosmic shear, this improvement would be reduced for a combined galaxy clustering and shear analysis. We also confirm that not modelling weak lensing magnification will catastrophically bias the cosmological results from LSST. Magnification must therefore be included in LSST large-scale structure analyses even though it does not significantly enhance the precision of the cosmological constraints.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: magnification modelling and impact on cosmological constraints from galaxy clustering and galaxy–galaxy lensing

We study the effect of magnification in the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 analysis of galaxy clustering and galaxy–galaxy lensing, using two different lens samples: a sample of luminous red galaxies, redMaGiC, and a sample with a redshift-dependent magnitude limit, MagLim. We account for the effect of magnification on both the flux and size selection of galaxies, accounting for systematic effects using the Balrog image simulations. We estimate the impact of magnification on the galaxy clustering and galaxy–galaxy lensing cosmology analysis, finding it to be a significant systematic for the MagLim sample. We show cosmological constraints from the galaxy clustering autocorrelation and galaxy–galaxy lensing signal with different magnifications priors, finding broad consistency in cosmological parameters in ΛCDM and wCDM. However, when magnification bias amplitude is allowed to be free, we find the two-point correlation functions prefer a different amplitude to the fiducial input derived from the image simulations. We validate the magnification analysis by comparing the cross-clustering between lens bins with the prediction from the baseline analysis, which uses only the autocorrelation of the lens bins, indicating that systematics other than magnification may be the cause of the discrepancy. We show that adding the cross-clustering between lens redshift bins to the fit significantly improves the constraints on lens magnification parameters and allows uninformative priors to be used on magnification coefficients, without any loss of constraining power or prior volume concerns.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A data compression and optimal galaxy weights scheme for Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument and weak lensing data sets

Combining different observational probes, such as galaxy clustering and weak lensing, is a promising technique for unveiling the physics of the Universe with upcoming dark energy experiments. The galaxy redshift sample from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) will have a significant overlap with major ongoing imaging surveys specifically designed for weak lensing measurements: the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS), the Dark Energy Survey (DES), and the Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) survey. In this work, we analyse simulated redshift and lensing catalogues to establish a new strategy for combining high-quality cosmological imaging and spectroscopic data, in view of the first-year data assembly analysis of DESI. In a test case fitting for a reduced parameter set, we employ an optimal data compression scheme able to identify those aspects of the data that are most sensitive to cosmological information and amplify them with respect to other aspects of the data. We find this optimal compression approach is able to preserve all the information related to the growth of structures.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗