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Inferred Sea Level Prediction in the NASA GMAO Seasonal Forecasting System

Reliable predictions of sea level anomalies on seasonal timescales with lead times of 1 to 9 months may have relevance to stakeholders – for example, in the advance deployment of resources for coastal flood mitigation. Routine prediction and analysis may also highlight physical processes associated with sea level change and modeling capabilities on seasonal and other timescales. These forecasts may represent interannual changes in the seasonal slope of the ocean surface, teleconnection effects such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and variations in seasonal hydrology including precipitation and coastal runoff. Coupled atmosphere/ocean models are routinely used in the seasonal prediction of temperature anomalies, precipitation anomalies, sea ice cover, and climate indices such as the Niño3.4 predictions under the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) protocol. Within the limits of their configuration, these complex Earth-system models have a potential for depicting regional changes in oceanic column properties, including the sea surface height. Seasonal prediction models generally have no representation of long-term mass contributions from melting land ice, or changes in vertical land motion; their output may be more specifically characterized as predictions of the ocean dynamic sea level. In practice however, the sea surface height prognostic variable is substantially compromised by the forecast model response to initial conditions. Imbalances between the initial, observed hydrologic cycle and the forecast model state produce abrupt adjustments in the model sea surface height. As a result, most seasonal prediction systems employ a constraint on the globally-averaged sea surface height that is applied at each time step. This essentially renders the prognostic sea surface height variable as unserviceable. Several approaches have previously been used to retrieve sea level information from seasonal forecasts beyond the use of the sea surface height variable. Here, we extend a method of relating other prognostic values, including ocean circulation and climate indices, to observed sea level variations. We use the merged altimetry record of the NASA MEaSUREs Gridded Sea Surface Height Anomalies data set and monthly revised local reference gauge observations from the National Oceanography Centre Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) to evaluate derived prognostic variables from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office subseasonal-to-seasonal system version 2.1 (GMAO S2S v2.1). We focus on results for the midlatitudes with particular emphasis on US gauge locations. As shown in previous studies, prognostic ENSO-related indices in boreal winter are well correlated with gauge observations for the US west coast, but also for other locations in the southeastern US. Other forecast climate indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation have relations to sea level that are limited both seasonally and spatially. As expected, surface atmospheric pressure (e.g., inverse barometer effect) is found to be particularly well correlated with observed sea level. We provide a characterization of forecast skill for seasonal sea level with this method.

Richard I Cullather↗

NASA NTRS1991

A method for selecting an operations concept to achieve successful mission operations

A procedure is presented for mapping operations concepts into design alternatives for a data system to be used in a generic ground based control center. A set of descriptive categories are developed to characterize the operational environment that relate to responsiveness, automation, and commitment. The operations concept is then developed according to a hierarchical decomposition of a mission statement into lower-level tasks, and the interpretation of the model's output is addressed. The method permits the description of operations concepts in terms of concept categories and ranges of alternatives between those categories. The descriptive framework can provide a mechanism for analyzing competing operations concepts.

Hornstein, Rhoda S.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Predictability of Gaseous Impact Ignition Sensitivity from Autoignition Temperature Data

An analysis of cumulative binomial probabilities for a quantal-type test like ASTM G74 indicates that for a probability of reaction in a single trial of 0.05, the probability of obtaining zero reactions in 20 trials is only approximately 36 percent, Because the lack of precision with the ASTM G74 test logic could be potentially misleading, an investigation was conducted to determine if pneumatic impact sensitivity could be predicted more reliably from other, more precise test methods. Pneumatic impact sensitivity tests were conducted following ASTM G74, but employing more rigorous test logics; autoignition temperature tests were conducted per ASTM G72. Polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE), Viton A, polyethylene, polyoxymethylene polyamide, and silicone were the polymers used. After a fixed number of pneumatic impact tests was performed at set pressures, a plot of reaction frequency over a 3.4 to 24.1 MPa impact pressure range indicated that PTFE, Viton A, and silicone would outperform other polymers. The 50 percent pneumatic impact reactivity level was determined with the Bruceton test method. The data obtained resulted in a strong correlation between the 50 percent reactivity level and the autoignition temperature of polymers, indicating similar ignition mechanisms.

Hirsh, David↗

NASA NTRS1992

Application of multigrid and adaptive grid embedding to the two-dimensional flux-split Euler equations

A numerical algorithm is presented for solving the two-dimensional flux-split Euler equations using a multigrid method with adaptive grid embedding. The method uses an unstructured data set along with a system of pointers for communication on the irregularly shaped grid topologies. An explicit two-stage time-advancement scheme is implemented. A multigrid algorithm is used to provide grid level communication and to accelerate the convergence of the solution to steady state. Results are presented for a NACA 0012 aerofoil in a free stream with a Mach number of 0.85 and an angle of attack of 1.0 degree. Excellent resolution of the shock structures is obtained with the adaptive grid embedding method with significantly fewer grid points than the comparable structured grid.

Warren, Gary P.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Inversion methods for satellite studies of the Earth Radiation Budget - Development of algorithms for the ERBE mission

The Earth Radiation Budget Experiment carries a three-channel scanning radiometer and a set of nadir-looking wide and medium field-of-view instruments for measuring the radiation emitted from earth and the solar radiation reflected from earth. This paper describes the algorithms which are used to compute the radiant exitances at a reference level ('top of the atmosphere') from these measurements. Methods used to analyze data from previous radiation budget experiments are reviewed, and the rationale for the present algorithms is developed. The scanner data are converted to radiances by use of spectral factors, which account for imperfect spectral response of the optics. These radiances are converted to radiant exitances at the reference level by use of directional models, which account for anisotropy of the radiation as it leaves the earth. The spectral factors and directional models are selected on the basis of the scene, which is identified on the basis of the location and the long-wave and shortwave radiances. These individual results are averaged over 2.5 x 2.5 deg regions. Data from the wide and medium field-of-view instruments are analyzed by use of the traditional shape factor method and also by use of a numerical filter, which permits resolution enhancement along the orbit track.

Smith, G. L.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Universal single level implicit algorithm for gasdynamics

A single level effectively explicit implicit algorithm for gasdynamics is presented. The method meets all the requirements for unconditionally stable global iteration over flows with mixed supersonic and supersonic zones including blunt body flow and boundary layer flows with strong interaction and streamwise separation. For hyperbolic (supersonic flow) regions the method is automatically equivalent to contemporary space marching methods. For elliptic (subsonic flow) regions, rapid convergence is facilitated by alternating direction solution sweeps which bring both sets of eigenvectors and the influence of both boundaries of a coordinate line equally into play. Point by point updating of the data with local iteration on the solution procedure at each spatial step as the sweeps progress not only renders the method single level in storage but, also, improves nonlinear accuracy to accelerate convergence by an order of magnitude over related two level linearized implicit methods. The method derives robust stability from the combination of an eigenvector split upwind difference method (CSCM) with diagonally dominant ADI(DDADI) approximate factorization and computed characteristic boundary approximations.

Lombard, C. K.↗

DOE OSTI2024

A high-order Shifted Interface Method for Lagrangian shock hydrodynamics

Here, we present a new method for two-material Lagrangian hydrodynamics, which combines the Shifted Interface Method (SIM) with a high-order Finite Element Method. Our approach relies on an exact (or sharp) material interface representation, that is, it uses the precise location of the material interface. The interface is represented by the zero level-set of a continuous high-order finite element function that moves with the material velocity. This strategy allows to evolve curved material interfaces inside curved elements. By reformulating the original interface problem over a surrogate (approximate) interface, located in proximity of the true interface, the SIM avoids cut cells and the associated problematic issues regarding implementation, numerical stability, and matrix conditioning. Accuracy is maintained by modifying the original interface conditions using Taylor expansions. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithms on established numerical benchmarks in one, two and three dimensions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multi-Factor-Coupled, Ahead-of-Time Aggregation of Power Flexibility Under Forecast Uncertainty

The increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) is significantly reshaping the role of distribution systems under active energy management. To aggregate the active-reactive power flexibility of DERs dispersed at the feeder and provide capacity support to the transmission system, it is essential to efficiently identify feasible substation power injection trajectories. This paper introduces a novel ahead-of-time flexibility characterization method to address it. First, a polyhedral non-feeder-level power flexibility region (PFR) is constructed, accounting for various time-dependent, power-coupled, and forecast error uncertainties. Then, a polyhedral feeder-level PFR is analytically derived through a coordinate transformation, which can reveal the uncertainty propagation path, i.e., how uncertainty applies to the feeder-level PFR. To facilitate the high-level application, a tractable chance-constrained Chebyshev centering optimization model is further developed to find a ball-shaped inner approximation of the feeder-level PFR. Finally, the proposed method is validated on a modified IEEE 123-bus test system. Here, both theoretical and experimental results show that, with appropriate robustness parameter settings, the proposed method can make the approximated PFR less conservative with abundant robustness against forecast error uncertainty.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1992

Exploratory study on performance measures as indicators of IS effectiveness

The Information Systems Directorate at JSC/NASA has undertaken the reevaluation of its performance measures process and measures. Under the direction of a quality approach it is essential to identify an external perspective of how well an organization is performing. This study was conducted with two major objectives: (1) survey and summarize the academic literature on performance measures as indicators of information systems (IS) effectiveness; and (2) survey organizations for their experience in measuring for IS effectiveness. Four approaches to measuring the effectiveness of IS performance were identified: (1) listen to the customer for the things they need; (2) align with corporate goals; (3) benchmark against well-respected organizations; and (4) ask yourself what critical factors lead to success. The list of known methods for soliciting customer feedback are as follows: (1) executive visit; (2) survey, interview, and focus group; (3) complaints and compliments; and (4) service level agreements. A common set of characteristics that satisfy customers was identified from the literature. The list includes elements such as the following: accuracy, timeliness, relevance, understandability, reliability, and completeness. Future research in this topic area should prove beneficial to determine the metrics for external validity.

Bishop, Peter C.↗

NASA NTRS1991

An enhanced projection and assembly model reduction methodology

An enhanced projection and assembly (P and A) method employing static correction modes to either the retained mode set of the system or the projected mode sets of the components is presented. The effectiveness of the proposed technique was successfully demonstrated on a 13-DOF mass-spring model and a high-order finite element model of the Galileo spacecraft. When applied to the Galileo cruise model, the system-level augmented P and A method significantly alleviates the zero-mismatch problem found in previous studies.

Lee, Allan Y.↗

NASA NTRS1992

A global ab initio potential for HCN/HNC, exact vibrational energies, and comparison to experiment

An ab initio (i.e., from first principles) calculation of vibrational energies of HCN and HNC is reported. The vibrational calculations were done with a new potential derived from a fit to 1124 ab initio electronic energies which were calculated using the highly accurate CCSD(T) coupled-cluster method in conjunction with a large atomic natural orbital basis set. The properties of this potential are presented, and the vibrational calculations are compared to experiment for 54 vibrational transitions, 39 of which are for zero total angular momentum, J = 0, and 15 of which are for J = 1. The level of agreement with experiment is unprecedented for a triatomic with two nonhydrogen atoms, and demonstrates the capability of the latest computational methods to give reliable predictions on a strongly bound triatomic molecule at very high levels of vibrational excitation.

Bentley, Joseph A.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Transition probability of the Si III 189.2-nm intersystem line

Measurement of the lifetime of the metastable 3s3p(3)P(0)1 level of Si(2+) (Si III), which decays by photon emission at 189.2 nm to the 3s2(1)S0 state, is reported. The data were taken from spontaneous emission from metastable Si III stored in an RF ion trap. The Si III ions were produced through electron bombardment of SiH4 and SiF4 at pressures of 1/100,000,000-1/10,000,000 Torr. A photomultiplier was employed to count the photon emissions from the transitions. A total of 11 decay curves were generated for analysis, with Poisson statistics used to set the uncertainties at within 8 pct. Significant systematic effects were controlled, and the lifetime was found to be within 3.6 microsec of 59.9 microsec. The method used is concluded valid for determining the lifetimes of metastable levels of low-Z ions with low charge, and thereby the transition probabilities.

Kwong, H. S.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Level 2 Milestone: Develop and Incorporate Novel Code Verification of Fundamental Equations in Gemma and Set Up Appropriate Tests

For computational physics simulations, code verification plays a major role in establishing the credibility of the results by assessing the correctness of the implementation of the underlying numerical methods. In computational electromagnetics, surface integral equations, such as the method-of-moments implementations of the electric-, magnetic-, and combinedfield integral equations, are frequently used to solve Maxwell’s equations on the surfaces of electromagnetic scatterers. These electromagnetic surface integral equations yield many code-verification challenges due to the various sources of numerical error and their possible interactions. In this report, we provide approaches to separately measure the numerical errors arising from these different error sources. We demonstrate the effectiveness of these approaches in Gemma.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2001

A Highly Accurate Technique for the Treatment of Flow Equations at the Polar Axis in Cylindrical Coordinates using Series Expansions

Numerical methods for solving the flow equations in cylindrical or spherical coordinates should be able to capture the behavior of the exact solution near the regions where the particular form of the governing equations is singular. In this work we focus on the treatment of these numerical singularities for finite-differences methods by reinterpreting the regularity conditions developed in the context of pseudo-spectral methods. A generally applicable numerical method for treating the singularities present at the polar axis, when nonaxisymmetric flows are solved in cylindrical, coordinates using highly accurate finite differences schemes (e.g., Pade schemes) on non-staggered grids, is presented. Governing equations for the flow at the polar axis are derived using series expansions near r=0. The only information needed to calculate the coefficients in these equations are the values of the flow variables and their radial derivatives at the previous iteration (or time) level. These derivatives, which are multi-valued at the polar axis, are calculated without dropping the accuracy of the numerical method using a mapping of the flow domain from (0,R)*(0,2pi) to (-R,R)*(0,pi), where R is the radius of the computational domain. This allows the radial derivatives to be evaluated using high-order differencing schemes (e.g., compact schemes) at points located on the polar axis. The proposed technique is illustrated by results from simulations of laminar-forced jets and turbulent compressible jets using large eddy simulation (LES) methods. In term of the general robustness of the numerical method and smoothness of the solution close to the polar axis, the present results compare very favorably to similar calculations in which the equations are solved in Cartesian coordinates at the polar axis, or in which the singularity is removed by employing a staggered mesh in the radial direction without a mesh point at r=0, following the method proposed recently by Mohseni and Colonius (1). Extension of the method described here for incompressible flows or for any other set of equations that are solved on a non-staggered mesh in cylindrical or spherical coordinates with finite-differences schemes of various level of accuracy is immediate.

Constantinescu, George S.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Scale effects on core design, fuel costs, and spent fuel volume of pressurized water reactors

The desire to improve the economic competitiveness and deployment pace of nuclear energy through modularization, manufacturing, and series production had led to the development of smaller size reactors. As the standard 17x17 fuel technology is mainly maintained in the pressurized water reactors (PWRs) category, this translates into a lower number of fuel assemblies in the core and sometimes a reduced fuel height. To assess the impact of such scale change in core design on fuel cycle cost and spent fuel volume, a scoping analysis tool is developed based on infinite lattice calculations, leakage, fuel management reduced models, and levelized unit cost of electricity (LCOE) estimate. As such, cost dynamics driven by fuel specific power, burnup, core leakage, feed, cycle length, fuel assembly height as well as uranium market data are captured with consistent set of assumptions and analysis methods. A selection of 5 reactor designs representative of leading PWR developers is assessed and compared. Pursuing higher specific powers and optimal burnups are highlighted as the main fuel cost reduction drivers, nevertheless, practical limitations and opportunities must be evaluated to establish the feasibility of such enhanced fuel operation. In consequence, a detailed core design is performed using SIMULATE3 code for 5 PWR variations including natural and forced coolant circulation modes, two reactor scales, power densities of 73, 112, and 123 kW/l and higher discharge burnups. Design and optimization are performed at the lattice level, for the reflector, and at the core loading level. Satisfactory steady-state operation including power distribution, coolant operating limits, and reactivity requirements are analyzed and reported in this paper. The fuel economics of the detailed core designs confirm the scoping analysis findings. Despite the unlocked power uprates in small PWRs, the achievable burnup for a given fuel specific power requires more enrichment and shorter fuel height results in higher fabrication costs per mass of fuel, which makes scaling down core size a more expensive endeavor on the fuel cycle front. Spent fuel volumes are reported for the PWRs designed in this paper. Furthermore, these volumes are driven by the core average discharge burnup regardless of the scale in consideration. Additional cost and core performance aspects related to heavy reflector gains, fuel-reflector substitution, and disposal cost policy in the U.S. are examined.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1998

A System for Managing Replenishment of a Nutrient Solution Using an Electrical Conductivity Controller

Control of nutrient solution parameters is very important for the growth and development of plants grown hydroponically. Protocols involving different nutrient solution replenishment times (e.g. one-week, two-week, or two-day replenishment) provide manual periodic control of the nutrient solution's electrical conductivity (EC). Since plants take-up nutrients as they grow, manual control has a drawback in that EC is not held constant between replenishments. In an effort to correct this problem the Center for Food and Environmental Systems for Human Exploration of Space at Tuskegee University has developed a system for managing and controlling levels of EC over a plant's entire growing cycle. A prototype system is being tested on sweetpotato production using the nutrient film technique (NFT), and it is being compared to a system in which sweetpotatoes are grown using NFT with manual control. NASA has played an important role in the development of environmental control systems. They have become a forerunner in growing plants hydroponically with some control systems through the use of networked data acquisition and control using environmental growth chambers. Data acquisition systems which involve the use of real-time, calibration, set points, user panel, and graphical representation programming provide a good method of controlling nutrient solution parameters such as EC and pH [Bledsoe, 19931]. In NASA's Biomass Production Chamber (BPC) at Kennedy Space Center, control is provided by a programmable logic controller (PLC). This is an industrial controller which combines ladder computer logic which has the ability to handle various levels of electrical power. The controller controls temperature, light and other parameters that affect the plant's environment, in the BPC, the Nutrient Delivery System (NIX), a sub-system of the PLC, controls nutrient solution parameters such as EC, pH, and solution levels. When the nutrient EC measurement goes outside a preset range (120-130 mS/m) a set amount of a stock solution of nutrients is automatically added by a metering pump to bring the EC back into operating range [Fortson, 1992]. This paper describes a system developed at Tuskegee University for controlling the EC of a nutrient solution used for growing sweetpotatoes with an EC controller and a computer with LabView data acquisition and instrumentation software. It also describes the preliminary data obtained from the growth of sweetpotatoes using this prototype control system.

Davis, D.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Aerodynamic configuration design using response surface methodology analysis

An investigation has been conducted to determine a set of optimal design parameters for a single-stage-to-orbit reentry vehicle. Several configuration geometry parameters which had a large impact on the entry vehicle flying characteristics were selected as design variables: the fuselage fineness ratio, the nose to body length ratio, the nose camber value, the wing planform area scale factor, and the wing location. The optimal geometry parameter values were chosen using a response surface methodology (RSM) technique which allowed for a minimum dry weight configuration design that met a set of aerodynamic performance constraints on the landing speed, and on the subsonic, supersonic, and hypersonic trim and stability levels. The RSM technique utilized, specifically the central composite design method, is presented, along with the general vehicle conceptual design process. Results are presented for an optimized configuration along with several design trade cases.

Engelund, Walter C.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Direct Measurement of the Supernova Rate in Starburst Galaxies

Supernovae play a key role in the dynamics, structure, and chemical evolution of galaxies. The massive stars that end their lives as supernovae live for short times. Many are still associated with dusty star formation regions when they explode, making them difficult to observe at visible wavelengths. In active star forming regions (galactic nuclei and starburst regions), dust extintion is especially severe. Thus, determining the supernova rate in the active star forming regions of galaxies, where the supernova rate can be one or two orders of magnitude higher than the average, has proven to be difficult. From observations of SN1987A, we know that the [NiII] 6.63 micron emission line was the strongest line in the infrared spectrum for a period of a year and a half after the explosion. Since dust extintion is much less at 6.63 pm than at visible wavelengths (A(sub 6.63)/A(sub V) = 0.025), the NiII line can be used as a sensitive probe for the detection of recent supernovae. We have observed a sample of starburst galaxies at 6.63 micron using ISOCAM to search for the NiII emission line characteristic of recent supernovae. We did not detect any NiII line emission brighter than a 5sigma limit of 5 mJy. We can set upper limits to the supernova rate in our sample, scaled to the rate in M82, of less than 0.3 per year at the 90% confidence level using Bayesian methods. Assuming that a supernova would have a NiII with the same luminosity as observed in SN1987A, we find less than 0.09 and 0.15 per year at the 50% and 67% confidence levels. These rates are somewhat less if a more normal type II supernovae has a NiII line luminosity greater than the line in SN1987A.

Bregman, Jesse D.↗