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At least 217 records · Page 12

Photovoltaic power - An important new energy option

A review of photovoltaic (PV) power technology is presented with an emphasis of PV as an economical and technically feasible alternative source of energy. The successful completion of the development and transfer of emerging low-cost technologies into a fully commercialized status are identified as the means to the realization of this option's full potential. The DOE National Photovoltaics Program, a significant sponsor of PV R&D, expects both flat-plate and concentrator collectors to meet established cost targets. Citing the DOE large flat-plate grid-connected system project of the Sacramento Municipal Utility District, current technology modules priced at near $5/Wp (1983 dollars) are steadily reducing costs. A recent DOE study suggests that PV-generated electricity produced at a 30-year levelized cost of 15 cents per kWh would represent a viable energy supply alternative for the nation.

Ferber, R. R.↗

Community-scale interaction of energy efficiency and demand flexibility in residential buildings

Demand-side management (DSM) strategies, including energy efficiency (EE) and demand flexibility (DF), contribute to cost-effective operation of the electricity grid. From a system-level perspective, such programs reduce costs, enhance reliability, and reduce network issues. Similarly, DSM programs help participating customers reduce utility bills while maintaining occupant comfort. Understanding the relationship between EE and DF is key to realizing the full potential of DSM programs. In this study, we modeled an all-electric residential community based on a 498-home community that is planned for construction in Fort Collins, Colorado in the United States. We used this community model to study the relationship between different EE measures, including building envelope upgrades and smart appliances, and DF enabled by a home energy management system (HEMS) responding to a time-varying tariff. Various EE levels in the homes – code-minimum, zero energy ready, and even higher levels of envelope efficiency – were simulated. DF is enabled by the HEMS, which coordinates behind-the-meter resources, including flexible building loads, PV, and home battery systems, to minimize utility bills while maintaining occupant comfort. When comparing to the code-minimum homes, EE upgrades alone reduce HVAC energy use during peak hours by up to 50% and the HVAC utility bill by up to $312/year. With the addition of HEMS, the average daily peak demand can be reduced by up to 0.58 MW or 1.2 kW/home in the higher envelope efficiency homes. The combination of EE upgrades, HEMS, and home battery systems is expected to save homeowners up to $590/year while increasing community load flexibility. However, HEMS and home battery systems are less effective in increasing the DF in the more efficient homes due to the lower load.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Exploring Renewable Energy Opportunities in Select Southeast Asian Countries: A Geospatial Analysis of the Levelized Cost of Energy of Utility-Scale Wind and Solar Photovoltaics

The costs of renewable energy-based electricity generation have fallen precipitously in recent years to levels that are increasingly competitive with traditional generation such as fossil fuel-based generation. As these costs become increasingly competitive, private developers, policymakers, and energy system planners are searching for opportunities to harness high-quality renewable energy resources. Developing economies are setting ambitious targets and exploring how cost-effective, grid-connected renewable energy options can help power economic growth and meet growing electricity demands. This includes the member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) that are determined to reach a target of 23% of renewable energy in the region's total primary energy supply by 2025. A critical gap to identifying opportunities and scaling up renewable energy is the lack of quality data and analyses to support decisions on the investment and deployment of renewables - including wind and solar photovoltaics (PV). This work supports decision making by providing high-quality data and spatial analysis of the cost of utility-scale wind and solar PV generation in select countries of Southeast Asia - specifically, the ASEAN member states. Generation costs are expressed as the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) - a commonly used metric that represents the net present value of the unit cost of electricity during the lifetime of a particular electricity generation technology. This is the first spatial estimate of LCOE for these technologies within the ASEAN member states - providing insights into the roles that renewable energy resource quality and other factors may play in generation costs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Thermoelectric System Economics - The Apex: New Paradigms in Manufacturing and Interface Performance Relationships Driving System Cost Optimizations

Thermoelectric energy recovery systems require cost-optimized designs with high thermal and thermoelectric (TE) performance to surmount common commercialization barriers controlling the acceptance of thermoelectric generator (TEG) systems. Recent work has addressed this requirement with new analytic tools and paradigms that allow integrated TEG cost-performance analysis and optimization. New work herein has identified the existence of optimized TE element design (i.e., TE element length) for minimizing TEG cost and provides design guidelines associated with critical thermal and electrical contact resistance effects and TE manufacturing sensitivities. Once optimum hot-side heat flux criteria are satisfied, this work highlights the tradeoffs between interface resistance effects and manufacturing cost effects in determining optimum-cost TE element lengths, and then quantifies the increase in optimum-cost TE lengths as manufacturing costs become more sensitive to TE element lengths. Optimized TE element design criteria and key non-dimensional design parameters (i.e., [𝐶′′′LTE/𝐶′′], [TE/con], [con/(TE,aveLTE)]) driving the design are presented and explained showing the interdependencies between manufacturing cost parameters and thermal and electrical interface impacts on integrated TE cost-performance analysis and design. Comprehensive TEG system cost-performance relationships clearly demonstrate the two parameters that most greatly impact the TEG system cost are heat exchanger costs ($/(W/K)) and TE hot side heat flux. Reducing heat exhanger cost from $1/(W/K) to $0.5/(W/K) can decrease TEG system cost by $2/W to $4/W depending on TE hot side heat fluxes from 4-10 W/cm2. The impact of TE hot side heat flux on TEG system cost is larger; reducing TE system cost by factors of 2-4 as TE hot side heat flux increases from 4 W/cm2 to high levels around 18 W/cm2. The levels of thermal contact resistance and electrical contact resistance required to even approach the critical TEG system cost level of $1/W are characterized by con = 1.0 x 10-10 -m2 and r = 0.1, respectively. This not only lowers TEG costs, but it also makes the TEG system costs less sensitive to TE manufacturing dependences on TE element length. New design paradigms and relationships create holistic, integrated TE performance-cost models that enhance understanding of crucial interrelationships between component costs, TE design parameters and material properties, heat exchanger design parameters, interfacial heat flux, and now thermal and electrical interface effects in minimizing TEG system costs.

Hendricks, Terry J.↗

Development of Energy Storage: Cost models

Energy storage technologies offer a promising solution to electric grid stability issues associated with the integration of variable renewable generators. The capability to match the electrical power output to instantaneous fluctuations in grid demand is crucial to ensure continuity of service. Including energy storage capability in an integrated energy system (IES) can provide the flexibility needed to meet variable electric demand and reduce the load following demands place on the reactor. In this report, economic data collected for energy storage (ES) technologies are described to support the objective of assessing the profitability of ES integration within the IES framework. In particular, there is a growing interest in thermal energy storage (TES) given its unique capability for long-duration storage for improving electricity reliability at a low levelized cost. It is common practice to evaluate the total lifetime cost and profitability before commercializing new technologies. In this report we identify and examine the models needed to better understand the economics of thermal energy storage. We extend the TES cost model in RAVEN in the context of a balance of plant (BOP) that incorporates thermal storage. To focus the discussion, following a general overview of the most promising TES technologies, we consider a use case that involves a sensible heat, two-tank, molten-salt system. Structural and operational details are reported to identify the source of construction capital expenditure and operation and maintenance cost. A detailed description of the different cost items is provided as well as the cost scaling with different storage capacity and power ratings for capacity optimization purpose. In addition, the capital expenditure and the recurring cost of representative two-tank, molten salt coupled with concentrated solar plants are provided for readers’ reference. The ES use case is noteworthy as it is in the pilot stage of commercialization. We identify those areas that would benefit from an increased economic focus to obtain a more complete compilation of cost data. We also describe the thermal coupling issues that arise from integration of the two-tank molten salt thermal energy storage system with a BOP, which is the subject of our current research. Some components of costs will need to be evaluated through dedicated technoeconomic analysis in future modeling activities using modeling procedures proposed in this report. With the data presented and the procedures described in this report, sufficiently accurate models can be implemented for the solution of both the power dispatch and the capacity expansion problems within the RAVEN-based HYBRID framework.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Decarbonization scenarios of the U.S. Electricity system and their costs

Decarbonizing the electricity system to zero-carbon emission is crucial for climate change mitigation. Previous studies have shown that such a transition in the United States (U.S.) may lead to higher system cost compared to a business-as-usual case, but it is not well-known how the cost of electricity generation varies at sub-regional level under the transition, and studies have rarely evaluated the trade-off between the cost and avoided climate damages, as well as the potential roles of negative emission technologies (NETs) in the electricity decarbonization. In this work, we present a regionally resolved national model to quantify the cost of decarbonizing the U.S. electricity system under a set of possible scenarios. The results show that, compared to the reference scenario without a decarbonization policy, reaching zero CO 2 emission by 2050 would incur, depending on the scenarios, 335-494 billion USD additional cost to the U.S. electric power sector during 2020-2050. The regional costs of electricity generation ranges from 2.4 to 4.7 cent/kWh, largely due to the generation profiles and renewable resources availability of those regions. The additional costs can be translated to an average CO 2 abatement cost of 29-59 USD/metric ton CO 2 (with 2%-7% discount rates), which are comparable to the social cost of carbon in the literature at around 4% discount rate. The results also show that the cost of mitigating the last few percent CO 2 emission from the U.S. electricity system may exceed the costs of NETs, indicating an opportunity for NETs to contribute to electricity decarbonization.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Mitigation of Molten Salt Corrosion

The desire to increase the peak operational temperature of Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plants to lower the levelized cost of CSP-derived electricity, has led to consideration of an earth-abundant, low-cost, thermally-stable, molten MgCl 2 -KCl-NaCl (40-40-20 mole%) salt for high-temperature thermal energy storage and heat transfer. The reliable, long-term containment of such a molten salt is challenging, however, due to the corrosion of cost-effective, high-temperature structural metal alloys in this salt (particularly if this salt is contaminated with oxygen-bearing species). This project has been focused on: i) development of equipment for evaluating corrosion kinetics in molten chlorides under well-controlled thermal, fluid dynamic, and atmospheric conditions at CSP-relevant temperatures, ii) use of such equipment to evaluate the influence of forced convection on corrosion kinetics (to determine the role of liquid phase diffusion on such corrosion), and iii) identifying a corrosion-mitigation strategy that can be industrially applied to achieve a projected annual corrosion ≤30 μm at CSP-relevant temperatures. The overall goals of this project have been: i) to understand the rate-limiting step(s) and associated kinetic laws governing corrosion in molten chlorides at 750°C, ii) to determine key operational parameters affecting the corrosion kinetics in molten salts, and iii) to demonstrate the tailoring of such parameters to appreciably reduce such corrosion.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The dish-Rankine SCSTPE program (Engineering Experiment no. 1)

Activities planned for phase 2 Of the Small Community Solar Thermal Power Experiment (PFDR) program are summarized with emphasis on a dish-Rankine point focusing distributed receiver solar thermal electric system. Major design efforts include: (1) development of an advanced concept indirect-heated receiver;(2) development of hardware and software for a totally unmanned power plant control system; (3) implementation of a hybrid digital simulator which will validate plant operation prior to field testing; and (4) the acquisition of an efficient organic Rankine cycle power conversion unit. Preliminary performance analyses indicate that a mass-produced dish-Rankine PFDR system is potentially capable of producing electricity at a levelized busbar energy cost of 60 to 70 mills per KWh and with a capital cost of about $1300 per KW.

Pons, R. L.↗

Characterizing electrical demand and load diversity of low-power water and space heating appliances in US homes

Home renovation and remodeling projects can involve costly and time consuming electrical infrastructure upgrades at the household level. From the grid perspective they also lead to costly replacement of local infrastructure, such as transformers, and can add stress to the grid at peak times. The emergence of innovative, power-efficient household appliances offers a way to minimize these problems. These appliances are designed for lower power consumption, simplifying installation through standard plug-in connections, reducing the need for new electric circuits/panels/service, and minimizing the peak power demand for the home. Key examples include low-power heat pump water heaters (HPWHs) and cold climate window heat pumps that operate on standard 120V outlets. To assess the real-world impact of these solutions, we compiled and analyzed power metering data from several US field studies. This data provides insights into the effects on peak power demand of selecting lower-power appliances. Our analysis focuses on several key metrics, including the maximum power demand of individual appliances, their operational runtime, continuous operation and load diversity. While individual low-power 120V space and water heating appliances offer significant peak demand reductions compared to 240V heat pump or resistance alternatives, their longer runtimes might increase the likelihood of operation during whole-dwelling peak events, albeit at lower power levels.

Less, Brennan↗

Direct Air Capture Using Trapped Small Amines in Hierarchical Nanoporous Capsules on Porous Electrospun Fibers (Final Technical Report)

This report summarizes the carbon capture research and development conducted by The State University of New York at Buffalo (UB) and GTI Energy (GTI) for award “DE-FE0031969: Direct Air Capture Using Trapped Small Amines in Hierarchical Nanoporous Capsules on Porous Electrospun Fibers” sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The objective of this project is to develop an innovative sorbent structure of trapped small amines in HNC embedded in PEF for DAC. This involves tailoring both sorbent and PEF materials to achieve a compact system for DAC with high capacity for CO 2 at concentrations typically available in air and at near ambient conditions. An innovative sorbent structure of trapped small amines in hierarchical nanoporous capsules (HNC) embedded in porous electrospun fibers (PEF) was developed for direct air capture (DAC). This involves tailoring both sorbent and PEF materials to achieve a compact system for DAC with high capacity for CO 2 at concentrations typically available in air and at near ambient conditions. An interfacial polymerization process was developed, which utilized loaded amines inside mesoporous silica and trimesoyl chloride (TMC) dissolved in organic solvents as the precursors, to generate a polyamide (PA) coating layer on mesoporous silica and thus trap amines. Reaction conditions, including TMC concentration, organic solvents, reaction time, etc., for interfacial polymerization were optimized to effectively trap loaded amines, and cyclic heating-cooling operation was conducted to evaluate the coating quality. Larger pore volume mesoporous silica was also synthesized to increase amine loading and thus increase CO 2 capacity. The optimized sorbent material exhibited CO 2 capacity as high as 4.88 mmol/g under humid DAC conditions and negligible loss (<1%) during 10 cyclic heating-cooling operations. The optimized PA-coated sorbent also showed fast adsorption and desorption kinetics, with <20% t1/2 increase compared to uncoated sorbent. PEF fabrication conditions, including organic solvents for dissolving core and shell polymers, voltage, distance from the nozzle to the collection panel, etc. were adjusted to better incorporate HNC. After incorporating the optimized sorbent material into PEF, the structured sorbent had a CO 2 capacity of approximately 4.0 mmol/g under humid DAC conditions, with capacity loss of 0.17% per cycle and t1/2 increase less than 10%. A techno-economic analysis (TEA) for the process design for a DAC system based on our developed sorbent structure of trapped small amines in HNC embedded in PEF was conducted. The process design included process description and major equipment sizing and energy and mass balances in addition to scale-up research results and estimated capture cost. Aspen Adsorption Simulator was used to fit the experimentally measured breakthrough curves and extract equilibrium and kinetic data of the optimized sorbent. Our results indicated that for a DAC plant with CO 2 productivity of 3,000 tonne/year, the levelized cost of CO 2 capture was $\$$612/tonne, with the largest contribution of 44.33% from the fixed operation cost. Increasing CO 2 productivity, while maintaining similar fixed operation cost, is expected to significantly reduce the CO 2 capture cost. A sensitivity study was also conducted to understand the influence of total plant cost, sorbent cost, CO 2 concentration in the feed, sorbent mat lifetime, sorbent regeneration electricity, and adsorption blower pressure drop on the levelized cost of CO 2 capture, revealing a capture cost range of $\$$520-870/tonne.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

EVI-LOCATE: One Stop Solution for Estimating Cost of Installing EV Charging Stations

EVI-LOCATE (Electric Vehicle Infrastructure-Locally Optimized Cost Assessment Tool and Estimator) is a site assessment tool to estimate costs to install EV charging stations. EVI-LOCATE enables users to generate site-specific, user-specific, and location-specific EV charging station installation designs and cost estimates. The tool integrates National Electrical Code, deep-learning pixel classification algorithm, and component-level costs to estimate the costs.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Beyond Price Taker: Optimizing Integrated Energy Systems Considering Market/Grid Interactions

Integrated Energy Systems (IES) combine two or more processes to increase the efficiency, flexibility of operation, and the overall reliability. However, analyzing IESs in volatile electricity markets is challenging, since the volatility in electricity prices makes the conventional levelized cost-type analysis less realistic. This work presents two approaches to address the challenge: price-taker and a surrogates-based approach for incorporating market interactions. The price-taker approach formulates a multiperiod optimization problem that takes the time-varying electricity prices into account, and solves the optimization problem to determine the optimal operational schedule that maximizes the chosen economic metric. This approach is successfully applied to investigate the performance of flexible power and hydrogen co-production systems. The market surrogates approach trains a machine learning model to predict the market behavior as a function of the characteristics of the IES. The trained surrogate model is used to optimize the design and operation of the given IES in an electricity market. This approach is demonstrated on a case study involving a nuclear power plant retrofitted with a low-temperature electrolysis unit to co-produce power and hydrogen.

beyond price taker↗

Technoeconomic Analysis of Steel Production with Electric Thermal Energy Storage

The iron and steel industry is an important manufacturing sector and one of the largest energy consumers in the United States and globally. Hydrogen direct reduction of iron ore (H2DRI) is considered a promising process that could enhance domestic steel production. This process requires hydrogen inlet temperatures up to 950 degrees C to drive the endothermic reduction of the iron ore pellets. In this work we investigate the technoeconomic performance of an H2DRI plant using electric thermal energy storage (ETES) technologies for the hydrogen heating, compared to conventional natural gas fired heaters, hydrogen fired heaters, and electric hydrogen heaters. A technoeconomic analysis framework for the plant is developed and used in multiple case studies, covering different hydrogen prices, grid electricity profiles, and financing scenarios. The levelized cost of steel production is found out to be in the range of $775-950/mt, which is mostly inside the benchmarked steel price of $941/mt. ETES-based hydrogen heating is found to be in par with conventional natural gas fired heaters, and cheaper than hydrogen fired heaters and electric hydrogen heaters. The major cost drivers are the iron ore and hydrogen feedstock, followed by the hydrogen compression and heating capital. Several insights and suggested future directions are identified.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Solar Potential Analysis for the MISO Region

As part of the Minnesota Solar Pathways project, funded in part by the Department of Energy’s Solar Energy Technologies Office, Clean Power Research completed a scenario-based analysis that estimates and optimizes the levelized cost of capacity for high renewables penetrations across the entirety of the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) region. The analysis concludes that it can be cheaper to overbuild solar + wind and curtail surplus than to store all generation. The analysis described in this report was preceded by an analysis completed in 2018 that used the same modeling framework to optimize generation resources located only in Minnesota.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Value Proposition of Multi-Megawatt Electric Power/Propulsion for the Human Exploration of Mars

NASA and other space agencies have been offering stakeholders an architecture for the human exploration of Mars that has remained essentially unchanged since the 1960's. The mission duration and launch mass are the two first order figures of merit that drive the total cost of such an architecture. The options studied to date center on the "conjunction class" or "Long Stay" mission, in which surface infrastructure elements are sent ahead on uncrewed, slow trajectories requiring a minimum amount of propellant, and the crewed elements are sent at the synotic cycle's shortest trajectory, stay on Mars until the next close alignment, and then return to Earth. Total crewed mission durations for these architectures range from 900 to 1100 days, with variations driven primarily by trades between the amount of propellant launched and the effective specific mass of the propulsion technology assumed (e.g., chemical, nuclear thermal, solar electric, nuclear electric). Mars transit propulsion systems assumed in mission architectures studied to date have all resulted in architectural figures of merit that drive the cost to a level of "too much." However, nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) technology offers a "knob" that might be turned to enable a radically different Mars architecture, whose launch mass and mission duration may enable a value proposition more palatable to mission stakeholders. Mars architectures studied to date have assumed an NEP system providing 2.5 MWe at a specific mass of no less than 20 kg/kWe. This has often been seen as obtainable with a moderately high temperature fission reactor. An NEP system providing 15 MWe at specific mass of ~1 kg/kWe, though, could enable a short stay (30 days on surface) Mars mission, requiring only two or three SLS-class launch vehicles and a total mission duration of under one calendar year. However, turning this NEP "knob" would require a high risk development program driving innovation on the order of that delivered by the Manhattan Project, but for a fraction of the cost. Any technology option that might offer such a capability at such a development cost now stands at a low Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 3, would be based on a nuclear energy source (likely fusion), and would require an extremely high risk (and rapid) development effort. The aggressive, parallel path project management paradigm exemplified by the original Manhattan Project might have the best chance of success. An energy source developed in this manner may also have a major impact on the terrestrial power industry.

power↗

Renewable Ammonia as An Energy Fuel for Ocean Exploration and Transportation

Renewable power generated from wave energy has faced technological and cost barriers to entry into utility-scale electricity markets. As an alternative, the production of chemical fuels, such as ammonia (NH3) which has high energy density (11.5 MJ/L) and facile storage properties, may open wave energy to new markets including ocean exploration and transportation. The electrochemical method has been studied to synthesize NH3 from air and water at ambient conditions. Based on some recent work on the electrochemical synthesis of NH3, it is possible to achieve an overall conversion efficiency of 10% from wave energy to NH3 through an electrochemical reaction between air and water. If all the recoverable wave energy in the United States (1170 TWh/yr) is used to produce renewable NH3 fuel replacing hydrocarbon fuels, this can help reduce over 300 million tons of CO2 emission every year. Several potential application scenarios at sea have been proposed for renewable NH3 fuel including production and storage for marine shipping and seasonal energy storage for Arctic exploration. Liquefied NH3 has much higher energy density, both gravimetric and volumetric, than a variety of batteries but the energy efficiency of NH3 is lower than modern batteries such as Li-ion. The Levelized cost of storing NH3 prepared using electric energy is less than $0.2/kWh and the storage time can exceed 10,000 hours which indicates that NH3 can be a promising energy storage solution to make use of abundant wave energy. However, there are some safety and environmental concerns involved in the usage of NH3 at sea. The challenges in the electrochemical catalyst for the NH3 synthesis and how molecular simulation may help to screen electrocatalyst with high efficiency and selectivity were also briefly discussed.

Liu, Jian↗

Hydrogen Production Cost from Proton-Conducting Solid Oxide Electrolysis

Rigorous stakeholder-vetted techno-economic analysis (TEA) was conducted to estimate the cost of hydrogen (H 2 ) production using Proton-Conducting Solid Oxide (PSO) electrolysis. The analysis evaluates Current (2025) and Future (2035) technology cases at centralized plant scales of 50 and 500 metric tonnes per day (MTD), assuming electricity, water, and air as the only system inputs. Untaxed, unsubsidized levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) is projected to range from 2020 $\$$1.81 to $\$$2.47/kg H 2 at an electricity price of $\$$0.03/kWh and 97% capacity factor under Nth-of-a-kind (NOAK) deployment assumptions. Total installed capital cost was developed using bottom-up Design for Manufacture and Assembly (DFMA) stack cost modeling and detailed balance-of-plant estimates, including mechanical and electrical subsystems, installation, site preparation, engineering, and contingency. Stack performance assumptions include thermoneutral operation, degradation over time, and periodic replacement. LCOH was calculated using the Hydrogen Analysis (H2A) discounted cash flow model in constant 2020 dollars. Results indicate PSO electrolysis has potential for competitive hydrogen production costs under low-cost electricity and mature manufacturing conditions.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Thermal Reservoir Networks for Modularly Expandable Thermal Microgrids

The Department of Defense (DoD) faces the substantial challenge of cost-effectively retrofitting one to two installations per month, each comprising approximately 1,000 buildings, to improve resilience, reduce energy consumption, and enhance energy supply security. Achieving these objectives requires optimal system selection and effective risk mitigation during system integration. To address this need, we introduce Platform-Based Design (PBD), a structured, hierarchical methodology adapted from other industrial sectors to the domain of energy system retrofits. We demonstrate the effectiveness of PBD through a techno-economic feasibility study comparing geothermal-coupled thermal energy networks (TENs) with conventional energy systems for heating, cooling, and powering 17 buildings at Joint Base Andrews (JBA) in Maryland. Our analysis illustrates that the PBD approach enables rigorous, data-driven, sequential decision making, resulting in a family of Pareto-optimal systems, among which the TEN emerged as the most promising solution. The selected TEN design integrates geothermal borefields, heat recovery heat pumps, photovoltaic (PV) arrays, and battery storage. Compared to the baseline system – gas heating combined with air-source chillers – the proposed TEN reduces annual imported energy by 74% and peak electricity demand by 45%, achieves a levelized cost of energy of $\$0.210$/kWh, and substantially enhances resilience. Life-cycle costs increase by approximately 6%, and initial investment costs are about 2.5 times higher than the baseline. However, if central plant infrastructure, district loops, and utility-scale PV and battery systems are privately funded and operated, the initial investment would fall below the baseline system cost. Critical to achieving these significant performance improvements were detailed nonlinear dynamic simulations coupling geothermal heat transfer, energy system operation, and realistic feedback control logic. These simulations identified essential design modifications and control strategy refinements that substantially reduced energy use, peak demand, and compressor shortcycling, thereby improving durability and reliability—issues that would have been significantly more expensive to resolve during operation. Additionally, the verification step highlighted sensitivities to key design parameters that could reduce initial investment by approximately $\$2$ million and reduce annual life-cycle costs more than $\$300,000$. We recommend adopting the PBD methodology for future feasibility studies and TEN pilot projects to gain valuable operational experience. Furthermore, we recommend that DoD invest in transferring and scaling the PBD methodology to other installations. This entails developing standardized computational frameworks and component libraries as well as training industry in conducting PBD. Such investments would enable rapid, robust, reliable, and cost-effective retrofits, supporting DoD’s ambitious energy system modernization goals.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗