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Results for “Likelihood Function”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1974

Evaluation of three coding schemes designed for improved data communication

Three coding schemes designed for improved data communication are evaluated. Four block codes are evaluated relative to a quality function, which is a function of both the amount of data rejected and the error rate. The Viterbi maximum likelihood decoding algorithm as a decoding procedure is reviewed. This evaluation is obtained by simulating the system on a digital computer. Short constraint length rate 1/2 quick-look codes are studied, and their performance is compared to general nonsystematic codes.

Snelsire, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Problems with the Baade-Wesselink method

The discrepancy noted in radii obtained by the Baade-Wesselink method when different colors are used to determine the effective temperatures is explored. The discrepancy is found to be due to an inconsistency in the applied temperature-color calibrations. The assumption of the maximum likelihood method that beta (the effective temperature + 0.1 times the bolometric correction) is a linear function of the color is valid for the B-V and V-I colors, but not for the V-R colors. It is suggested that the errors introduced by the nonlinearity in the relation between beta and the V-R colors will produce radii which are too large. The radii derived from the V-B colors appear to be too small.

Bohm-Vitense, E.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Transfer function bounds on the performance of turbo codes

In this article we apply transfer function bounding techniques to obtain upper bounds on the bit-error rate for maximum likelihood decoding of turbo codes constructed with random permutations. These techniques are applied to two turbo codes with constraint length 3 and later extended to other codes. The performance predicted by these bounds is compared with simulation results. The bounds are useful in estimating the 'error floor' that is difficult to measure by simulation, and they provide insight on how to lower this floor. More refined bounds are needed for accurate performance measures at lower signal-to-noise ratios.

Divsalar, D.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Implementation of a maximum likelihood convolutional decoder in the DSN

The development status of the decoder and the factors which were considered in defining the specific functional requirements are described. The design is discussed to the block diagram level. A description of the detailed design is provided, along with a description of the test software developed and a brief summary of the performance evaluation testing completed so far.

Alberda, M. E.↗
NASA NTRS1991

The three-point correlation function for Abell clusters - Observations and simulations

Results are reported of a 3D study tracing the three-point correlation function of Abell clusters and of a comparison of this with the biased cold dark matter (CDM) simulations of Park (1990). For the observations, the maximum likelihood fits are Z11 = 0.85 and Q111 = 0.1, in excellent agreement with the result of the 2D study of Toth et al. (1989). For Park's simulation, maximum likelihood fits of Q11 = 0.9 and Q111 = 0.0 are found, which is in excellent agreement with the observational result. It is concluded that the standard biased CDM gravitational instability model reproduces the observed form of the three-point correlation functions for Abell clusters remarkably well. The number of triples as a function of the sides of triangles for Abell clusters, and the number of triples as a function of the sides of triangles for clusters in Park's simulation are illustrated on graphs.

Gott, J. R., III↗
NASA NTRS2004

Improving Project Management with Simulation and Completion Distribution Functions

Despite the critical importance of project completion timeliness, management practices in place today remain inadequate for addressing the persistent problem of project completion tardiness. A major culprit in late projects is uncertainty, which most, if not all, projects are inherently subject to. This uncertainty resides in the estimates for activity durations, the occurrence of unplanned and unforeseen events, and the availability of critical resources. In response to this problem, this research developed a comprehensive simulation based methodology for conducting quantitative project completion time risk analysis. It is called the Project Assessment by Simulation Technique (PAST). This new tool enables project stakeholders to visualize uncertainty or risk, i.e. the likelihood of their project completing late and the magnitude of the lateness, by providing them with a completion time distribution function of their projects. Discrete event simulation is used within PAST to determine the completion distribution function for the project of interest. The simulation is populated with both deterministic and stochastic elements. The deterministic inputs include planned project activities, precedence requirements, and resource requirements. The stochastic inputs include activity duration growth distributions, probabilities for events that can impact the project, and other dynamic constraints that may be placed upon project activities and milestones. These stochastic inputs are based upon past data from similar projects. The time for an entity to complete the simulation network, subject to both the deterministic and stochastic factors, represents the time to complete the project. Repeating the simulation hundreds or thousands of times allows one to create the project completion distribution function. The Project Assessment by Simulation Technique was demonstrated to be effective for the on-going NASA project to assemble the International Space Station. Approximately $500 million per month is being spent on this project, which is scheduled to complete by 2010. NASA project stakeholders participated in determining and managing completion distribution functions produced from PAST. The first result was that project stakeholders improved project completion risk awareness. Secondly, using PAST, mitigation options were analyzed to improve project completion performance and reduce total project cost.

Cates, Grant R.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Estimating residual fault hitting rates by recapture sampling

For the recapture debugging design introduced by Nayak (1988) the problem of estimating the hitting rates of the faults remaining in the system is considered. In the context of a conditional likelihood, moment estimators are derived and are shown to be asymptotically normal and fully efficient. Fixed sample properties of the moment estimators are compared, through simulation, with those of the conditional maximum likelihood estimators. Properties of the conditional model are investigated such as the asymptotic distribution of linear functions of the fault hitting frequencies and a representation of the full data vector in terms of a sequence of independent random vectors. It is assumed that the residual hitting rates follow a log linear rate model and that the testing process is truncated when the gaps between the detection of new errors exceed a fixed amount of time.

Lee, Larry↗
NASA NTRS1995

Comparison of 2- and 10-micron coherent Doppler lidar performance

The performance of 2- and 10-micron coherent Doppler lidar is presented in terms of the statistical distribution of the maximum-likelihood velocity estimator from simulations for fixed range resolution and fixed velocity search space as a function of the number of coherent photoelectrons per estimate. The wavelength dependence of the aerosol backscatter coefficient, the detector quantum efficiency, and the atmospheric extinction produce a simple shift of the performance curves. Results are presented for a typical boundary layer measurement and a space-based measurement for two regimes: the pulse-dominated regime where the signal statistics are determined by the transmitted pulse, and the atmospheric-dominated regime where the signal statistics are determined by the velocity fluctuations over the range gate. The optimal choice of wavelength depends on the problem under consideration.

Frehlich, Rod↗
NASA NTRS1996

Orbital debris removal using ground-based lasers

Orbiting the Earth are spent rocket stages, non-functioning satellites, hardware from satellite deployment and staging, fragments of exploded spacecraft, and other relics of decades of space exploration: orbital debris. The United States Space Command tracks and maintains a catalog of the largest objects. The catalog contains over 7000 objects. Recent studies have assessed the debris environment in an effort to estimate the number of smaller particles and the probability of a collision causing catastrophic damage to a functioning spacecraft. The results of the studies can be used to show, for example, that the likelihood of a collision of a particle larger than about one centimeter in diameter with the International Space Station during a 10-year period is a few percent, roughly in agreement with earlier estimates for Space Station Freedom. Particles greater than about one centimeter in diameter pose the greatest risk to shielded spacecraft. There are on the order of 105 such particles in low Earth orbit. The United States National Space Policy, begun in 1988, is to minimize debris consistent with mission requirements. Measures such as venting unused fuel to prevent explosions, retaining staging and deployment hardware, and shielding against smaller debris have been taken by the U.S. and other space faring nations. There is at present no program to remove debris from orbit. The natural tendency for upper atmospheric drag to remove objects from low Earth orbit is more than balanced by the increase in the number of debris objects from new launches and fragmentation of existing objects. In this paper I describe a concept under study by the Program Development Laboratory of Marshall Space Flight Center and others to remove debris with a ground-based laser. A longer version of this report, including figures, is available from the author.

Taylor, Charles R.↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Necessity of Functional Analysis for Space Exploration Programs

As NASA moves toward expanded commercial spaceflight within its human exploration capability, there is increased emphasis on how to allocate responsibilities between government and commercial organizations to achieve coordinated program objectives. The practice of program-level functional analysis offers an opportunity for improved understanding of collaborative functions among heterogeneous partners. Functional analysis is contrasted with the physical analysis more commonly done at the program level, and is shown to provide theoretical performance, risk, and safety advantages beneficial to a government-commercial partnership. Performance advantages include faster convergence to acceptable system solutions; discovery of superior solutions with higher commonality, greater simplicity and greater parallelism by substituting functional for physical redundancy to achieve robustness and safety goals; and greater organizational cohesion around program objectives. Risk advantages include avoidance of rework by revelation of some kinds of architectural and contractual mismatches before systems are specified, designed, constructed, or integrated; avoidance of cost and schedule growth by more complete and precise specifications of cost and schedule estimates; and higher likelihood of successful integration on the first try. Safety advantages include effective delineation of must-work and must-not-work functions for integrated hazard analysis, the ability to formally demonstrate completeness of safety analyses, and provably correct logic for certification of flight readiness. The key mechanism for realizing these benefits is the development of an inter-functional architecture at the program level, which reveals relationships between top-level system requirements that would otherwise be invisible using only a physical architecture. This paper describes the advantages and pitfalls of functional analysis as a means of coordinating the actions of large heterogeneous organizations for space exploration programs.

program management↗
NASA NTRS1974

Convolutional code performance in planetary entry channels

The planetary entry channel is modeled for communication purposes representing turbulent atmospheric scattering effects. The performance of short and long constraint length convolutional codes is investigated in conjunction with coherent BPSK modulation and Viterbi maximum likelihood decoding. Algorithms for sequential decoding are studied in terms of computation and/or storage requirements as a function of the fading channel parameters. The performance of the coded coherent BPSK system is compared with the coded incoherent MFSK system. Results indicate that: some degree of interleaving is required to combat time correlated fading of channel; only modest amounts of interleaving are required to approach performance of memoryless channel; additional propagational results are required on the phase perturbation process; and the incoherent MFSK system is superior when phase tracking errors are considered.

Modestino, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Massive Black Holes and the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA)

The goals of the USA mission include both astrophysical investigations and fundamental physics tests. The main astrophysical questions concern the space density, growth, mass function, and surroundings of massive black holes. Thus the crucial issue for the USA mission is the likelihood of observing signals from such sources. Four possible sources of this kind are discussed briefly in this paper. It appears plausible, or even likely. that one or more of these types of sources can be detected and studied by LISA.

Blender, Peter L.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Resilience Metrics Framework for Solar Photovoltaics

This presentation was given at the Photovoltaic Specialist Conference (PVSC) 54 in New Orleans, Louisiana. Photovoltaic (PV) systems are routinely exposed to extreme weather, including wind and hail storms. Historically, most systems have proven to be resilient to such events, but some storms have damaged PV systems, leading to physical and financial loss. Storm hardening measures and specific system attributes can reduce this risk. This work introduces a set of resilience metrics and a framework for quantifying, comparing, and predicting PV system resilience. The framework is divided into two parts: 1) predictive, attribute metrics based on site and component characteristics, and 2) impact metrics that assess post-storm performance. Metrics are weighted and aggregated, producing hazard-specific resilience scores. We derive damage functions from storm-impacted PV systems, establishing a baseline against which post-storm performance can be compared. This damage was widely variable across hail and wind intensities, and field hail damage was less than predicted by laboratory tests, suggesting that system features - in addition to storm conditions - influence damage likelihood. Finally, the metrics framework is demonstrated using three case studies of storm damaged PV systems. Although additional data are needed to create attribute specific damage functions and establish metric weights, this study presents a methodology for evaluating PV resilience and contributes new damage functions to the literature.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1989

Human tolerance to space flight

Medical studies of astronauts and cosmonauts before, during, and after space missions have identified several effects of weightlessness and other factors that influence the ability of humans to tolerate space flight. Weightlessness effects include space motion sickness, cardiovascular abnormalities, reduction in immune system function, loss of red blood cells, loss of bone mass, and muscle atrophy. Extravehicular activity (EVA) increases the likelihood that decompression sickness may occur. Radiation also gives reason for concern about health of crewmembers, and psychological factors are important on long-term flights. Countermeasures that have been used include sensory preadaptation, prebreathing and use of various air mixtures for EVA, loading with water and electrolytes, exercise, use of pharmacological agents and special diets, and psychological support. It appears that humans can tolerate and recover satisfactorily from at least one year of space flight, but a number of conditions must be further ameliorated before long-duration missions can be considered routine.

Huntoon, C. L.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Identification of Time-Varying Pilot Control Behavior in Multi-Axis Control Tasks

Recent developments in fly-by-wire control architectures for rotorcraft have introduced new interest in the identification of time-varying pilot control behavior in multi-axis control tasks. In this paper a maximum likelihood estimation method is used to estimate the parameters of a pilot model with time-dependent sigmoid functions to characterize time-varying human control behavior. An experiment was performed by 9 general aviation pilots who had to perform a simultaneous roll and pitch control task with time-varying aircraft dynamics. In 8 different conditions, the axis containing the time-varying dynamics and the growth factor of the dynamics were varied, allowing for an analysis of the performance of the estimation method when estimating time-dependent parameter functions. In addition, a detailed analysis of pilots adaptation to the time-varying aircraft dynamics in both the roll and pitch axes could be performed. Pilot control behavior in both axes was significantly affected by the time-varying aircraft dynamics in roll and pitch, and by the growth factor. The main effect was found in the axis that contained the time-varying dynamics. However, pilot control behavior also changed over time in the axis not containing the time-varying aircraft dynamics. This indicates that some cross coupling exists in the perception and control processes between the roll and pitch axes.

Zaal, Peter M. T.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Social impact evaluation : Some implications of the specific decisional context approach for anticipatory project assessment with special reference to available alternatives and to techniques of evaluating the social impacts of the anticipated effects of such alternatives

The implications are explored of the specific decision context approach to anticipatory project assessment. More specifically, it is hypothesized that with respect to any given effect of a proposed project or action (mobility, job opportunities, air pollution, population distribution, etc.) such effect will likely differ in probability and/or magnitude from one decisional context to another; that the social desirability or undesirability of a given effect is a function (will differ with) each specific decisional context; that therefore the social impact of such effect will in all likelihood differ with each specific decisional context; and that the social significance of even the dame social impact of a given effect will vary from one decisional context to another when such social impact interacts with (competes with or reinforces) the social impacts of other effects. It also follows from this analysis that the respective roles of scientific method (demonstrable data) and adversarial system will not only differ with each specific decisional context but with each alternative course of action available to the decisional entity in each specific context.

Mayo, L. H.↗