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NASA NTRS2022

Investigation of the Drivers and Atmospheric Impacts of Energetic Electron Precipitation

The drivers and atmospheric impacts of energetic electron precipitation are not yet well understood. Further, electron precipitation is often poorly represented in atmospheric modeling. Additional investigations of the drivers and impacts of electron precipitation are needed to improve models and space weather forecasting requirements. To accurately represent the troposphere through the ionosphere in model simulations, it is vital to account for the chemistry accurately. Electron precipitation is a frequent, yet often ignored middle to high latitude forcing that can have dramatic effects on the middle and upper atmosphere. Over the past decade, several electron precipitation data sets have been developed, however, validation has been difficult due to the lack of independent observations of electron fluxes. Additionally, the limited number of satellites making measurements of global magnetospheric wave activity in concert with the resulting electron precipitation restricts our ability to accurately capture the drivers simultaneously with the precipitation. Accurate characterization of the drivers is needed for physics-based magnetosphere modeling. Likewise, accurate precipitating electron fluxes and relative energies are needed to improve our atmospheric modeling studies. Finally, in order to properly validate and improve our current modeling efforts, observations of atmospheric composition are necessary.

Joshua Pettit↗

NASA NTRS1982

Particle precipitation induced by short-duration VLF waves in the magnetosphere

The present investigation has the objective to study the precipitation of energetic electrons into the ionosphere due to the interaction of these particles with short-duration VLF waves in the magnetosphere. The physics of the interaction is considered, taking into account the wave structure, the energetic particle distribution, wave-particle interaction, and the computation of the precipitated flux versus time. The obtained formulation is applied to various different magnetospheric conditions. Attention is also given to peak flux and total deposited energy. The results of the investigation demonstrate the role of the energetic particle distribution function, the normalized wave frequency, the L value of the path of propagation, the cold plasma density, and the wave intensity. The precipitated energy flux that would be observed at 1000-km altitude is presented as a function of time relative to the injection of the wave pulse at the same point.

Inan, U. S.↗

DOE OSTI2014

Response of the plasma to the size of an anode electrode biased near the plasma potential

As the size of a positively biased electrode increases, the nature of the interface formed between the electrode and the host plasma undergoes a transition from an electron-rich structure (electron sheath) to an intermediate structure containing both ion and electron rich regions (double layer) and ultimately forms an electron-depleted structure (ion sheath). In this study, measurements are performed to further test how the size of an electron-collecting electrode impacts the plasma discharge the electrode is immersed in. This is accomplished using a segmented disk electrode in which individual segments are individually biased to change the effective surface area of the anode. Measurements of bulk plasma parameters such as the collected current density, plasma potential, electron density, electron temperature and optical emission are made as both the size and the bias placed on the electrode are varied. Abrupt transitions in the plasma parameters resulting from changing the electrode surface area are identified in both argon and helium discharges and are compared to the interface transitions predicted by global current balance [S. D. Baalrud, N. Hershkowitz, and B. Longmier, Phys. Plasmas 14, 042109 (2007)]. While the size-dependent transitions in argon agree, the size-dependent transitions observed in helium systematically occur at lower electrode sizes than those nominally derived from prediction. The discrepancy in helium is anticipated to be caused by the finite size of the interface that increases the effective area offered to the plasma for electron loss to the electrode.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

2015 Los Alamos Space Weather Summer School Research Reports

The fifth Los Alamos Space Weather Summer School was held June 1st - July 24th, 2015, at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). With renewed support from the Institute of Geophysics, Planetary Physics, and Signatures (IGPPS) and additional support from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science, we hosted a new class of five students from various U.S. and foreign research institutions. The summer school curriculum includes a series of structured lectures as well as mentored research and practicum opportunities. Lecture topics including general and specialized topics in the field of space weather were given by a number of researchers affiliated with LANL. Students were given the opportunity to engage in research projects through a mentored practicum experience. Each student works with one or more LANL-affiliated mentors to execute a collaborative research project, typically linked with a larger ongoing research effort at LANL and/or the student’s PhD thesis research. This model provides a valuable learning experience for the student while developing the opportunity for future collaboration. This report includes a summary of the research efforts fostered and facilitated by the Space Weather Summer School. These reports should be viewed as work-in-progress as the short session typically only offers sufficient time for preliminary results. At the close of the summer school session, students present a summary of their research efforts. Titles of the papers included in this report are as follows: Full particle-in-cell (PIC) simulation of whistler wave generation, Hybrid simulations of the right-hand ion cyclotron anisotropy instability in a sub-Alfvénic plasma flow, A statistical ensemble for solar wind measurements, Observations and models of substorm injection dispersion patterns, Heavy ion effects on Kelvin-Helmholtz instability: hybrid study, Simulating plasmaspheric electron densities with a two-component electric field model, Ion and electron heating by whistler turbulence: parametric studies via particle-in-cell simulation, and The statistics of relativistic electron pitch angle distribution in the Earth’s radiation belt based on the Van Allen Probes measurements.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRS1990

Astrophysics from the moon; Proceedings of the Workshop, Annapolis, MD, Feb. 5-7, 1990

The present conference on astrophysics from the moon encompasses the study of the Galaxy, external planetary systems, solar physics, stars and stellar evolution, the frontiers of Galactic, extragalactic, and cosmological astronomy, an introduction to lunar-based astronomy, concepts for lunar observatories including high-energy observatories, solar observatories, and observatories for particle astrophysics and gravitational studies. Specific issues addressed include the dynamics of Jovian atmospheres, planetary magnetospheres, flare physics, exobiology and SETI from the lunar farside, and the study of interactive stars, star formation, H II regions in absorption at low frequencies, and normal galaxies. Also addressed are the potential lunar investigation of quasars, the formation epoch, and the large-scale structure of the universe, and observational issues related to X-ray large arrays, optical interferometers, VLF radio astronomy, a UV-solar reflecting coronagraph, and a heavy-nucleus detector.

Mumma, Michael J.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Recent advances in numerical simulation of space-plasma-physics problems

Computer simulations have become an increasingly popular, important and insightful tool for studying space plasmas. This review describes MHD and particle simulations, both of which treat the plasma and the electromagnetic field in which it moves in a self consistent fashion but on drastically different spatial and temporal scales. The complementary roles of simulation, observations and theory are stressed. Several examples of simulations being carried out in the area of magnetospheric plasma physics are described to illustrate the power, potential and limitations of the approach.

Birmingham, T. J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Global Gyrokinetic Simulations of Isotope Effects under Ambipolar Electric Fields and Advances Toward Whole-Volume Modeling

We review global gyrokinetic simulation studies on plasma transport in the Large Helical Device using XGC-S. XGC-S is an extended version of X-point Gyrokinetic Code for stellarators and has been progressively verified throughout the code development process. Verification tests of neoclassical transport successfully demonstrate the generation of an ambipolar electric field due to ripple-trapped particles. We perform quasi-linear analyses of the ion temperature gradient mode under the influence of the ambipolar electric field. The results reveal that the ambipolar electric field and the heavy hydrogen component in mixed isotope plasmas can lead to the favorable isotope effect observed in recent deuterium experiments. We also present recent efforts in code development toward whole-volume simulations, including the helical divertor region. A mesh generation scheme based on field-line tracing and the construction of curved surfaces perpendicular to the magnetic field would be promising for global field calculations in the whole-volume simulations.

Basic Plasma Phenomena and Gas Discharges↗

DOE OSTI2023

Energy transfer of imbalanced Alfvénic turbulence in the heliosphere

Imbalanced Alfvénic turbulence is a universal process playing a crucial role in energy transfer in space, astrophysical, and laboratory plasmas. A fundamental and long-lasting question about the imbalanced Alfvénic turbulence is how and through which mechanism the energy transfers between scales. Here, we show that the energy transfer of imbalanced Alfvénic turbulence is completed by coherent interactions between Alfvén waves and co-propagating anomalous fluctuations. These anomalous fluctuations are generated by nonlinear couplings instead of linear reflection. We also reveal that the energy transfer of the waves and the anomalous fluctuations is carried out mainly through local-scale and large-scale nonlinear interactions, respectively, responsible for their bifurcated power-law spectra. This work unveils the energy transfer physics of imbalanced Alfvénic turbulence, and advances the understanding of imbalanced Alfvénic turbulence observed by Parker Solar Probe in the inner heliosphere.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modeling of the cold electron plasma density for radiation belt physics

This review focusses strictly on existing plasma density models, including ionospheric source models, empirical density models, physics-based and machine-learning density models. This review is framed in the context of radiation belt physics and space weather codes. The review is limited to the most commonly used models or to models recently developed and promising. A great variety of conditions is considered such as the magnetic local time variation, geomagnetic conditions, ionospheric source regions, radial and latitudinal dependence, and collisional vs. collisionless conditions. These models can serve to complement satellite observations of the electron plasma density when data are lacking, are for most of them commonly used in radiation belt physics simulations and can improve our understanding of the plasmasphere dynamics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Simulations of Van Allen Probes Plasmaspheric Electron Density Observations

Here we simulate equatorial plasmaspheric electron densities using a physics-based model (Cold PLasma, CPL; used in the ring current-atmosphere interactions model) of the source and loss processes of refilling and erosion driven by empirical inputs. The performance of CPL is evaluated against in situ measurements by the Van Allen Probes (Radiation Belt Storm Probes) for two events: the 31 May to 5 June and 15 to 20 January 2013 geomagnetic storms observed in the premidnight and postmidnight magnetic local time (MLT) sectors, respectively. Overall, CPL reproduces the radial extent of the plasmasphere to within a mean absolute difference of |ΔL avg |=0.5 ± 0.1 L. The model electric field responsible for E × B convection and the parameterization of geomagnetic conditions (under the Kp-index and solar wind properties) implemented by CPL did not account for localized enhancements in the duskward electric field during increased activity. Rather, it was found to be largely dependent on the measure of the quiet time background. Finally, this property indicates that the agreement between these simulations and observations does not account for the complete set of physical processes during extreme (strong or weak) geomagnetic conditions impacting the plasmasphere. Nevertheless, at the presented resolution of the model CPL does provide good agreement in reproducing Radiation Belt Storm Probes observations of plasmaspheric density and plasmapause location.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Predicting Solar Energetic Particles Using SDO/HMI Vector Magnetic Data Products and a Bidirectional LSTM Network

Solar energetic particles (SEPs) are an essential source of space radiation, and are hazardous for humans in space, spacecraft, and technology in general. In this paper, we propose a deep-learning method, specifically a bidirectional long short-term memory (biLSTM) network, to predict if an active region (AR) would produce an SEP event given that (i) the AR will produce an M- or X-class flare and a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the flare, or (ii) the AR will produce an M- or X-class flare regardless of whether or not the flare is associated with a CME. The data samples used in this study are collected from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite's X-ray flare catalogs provided by the National Centers for Environmental Information. We select M- and X-class flares with identified ARs in the catalogs for the period between 2010 and 2021, and find the associations of flares, CMEs, and SEPs in the Space Weather Database of Notifications, Knowledge, Information during the same period. Each data sample contains physical parameters collected from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory. Experimental results based on different performance metrics demonstrate that the proposed biLSTM network is better than related machine-learning algorithms for the two SEP prediction tasks studied here. We also discuss extensions of our approach for probabilistic forecasting and calibration with empirical evaluation

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Numerical Simulations of the Geospace Response to the Arrival of an Idealized Perfect Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection

Abstract Previously, Tsurutani and Lakhina (2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058825 ) created estimates for a “perfect” interplanetary coronal mass ejection and performed simple calculations for the response of geospace, including . In this study, these estimates are used to drive a coupled magnetohydrodynamic‐ring current‐ionosphere model of geospace to obtain more physically accurate estimates of the geospace response to such an event. The sudden impulse phase is examined and compared to the estimations of Tsurutani and Lakhina (2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058825 ). The physics‐based simulation yields similar estimates for Dst rise, magnetopause compression, and equatorial values as the previous study. However, results diverge away from the equator. values in excess of 30 nT/s are found as low as magnetic latitude. Under southward interplanetary magnetic field conditions, magnetopause erosion combines with strong region one Birkeland currents to intensify the response. Values obtained here surpass those found in historically recorded events and set the upper threshold of extreme geomagnetically induced current activity at Earth.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

SHIELDS Final Technical Report

Predicting variations in the near-Earth space environment that can lead to spacecraft damage and failure, i.e. “space weather”, remains a big space physics challenge. A new capability was developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) to understand, model, and predict Space Hazards Induced near Earth by Large Dynamic Storms, the SHIELDS framework. This framework simulates the dynamics of the Surface Charging Environment (SCE), the hot (keV) electrons representing the source and seed populations for the radiation belts, on both macro- and micro-scale. In addition to using physics-based models (like RAM-SCB, BATS-R-US, and iPIC3D), new data assimilation techniques employing data from LANL instruments on the Van Allen Probes and geosynchronous satellites were developed. An order of magnitude improvement in the accuracy in the simulation of the spacecraft surface charging environment was thus obtained. SHIELDS also includes a post-processing tool designed to calculate the surface charging for specific spacecraft geometry using the Curvilinear Particle-In-Cell (CPIC) code and to evaluate anomalies' relation to SCE dynamics. Such diagnostics is critically important when performing forensic analyses of space-system failures.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2012

P24 Plasma Physics Summer School 2012 Los Alamos National Laboratory Summer lecture series for students [Slides]

This report covers the 2012 LANL summer lecture series for students. The lectures were: (1) Tom Intrator, P24 LANL: Kick off, Introduction - What is a plasma; (2) Bruno Bauer, Univ. Nevada-Reno: Derivation of plasma fluid equations; (3) Juan Fernandez, P24 LANL Overview of research being done in p-24; (4) Tom Intrator, P24 LANL: Intro to dynamo, reconnection, shocks; (5) Bill Daughton X-CP6 LANL: Intro to computational particle in cell methods; (6) Kirk Flippo, P24 LANL: High energy density plasmas; (7) Thom Weber, P24 LANL: Energy crisis, fission, fusion, non carbon fuel cycles; (8) Tom Awe, Sandia National Laboratory: Magneto Inertial Fusion; and (9) Yongho Kim, P24 LANL: Industrial technologies.

Astronomy & Astrophysics(79)↗

DOE OSTI2022

The RAM-SCB model and its applications to advance space weather forecasting

Energetic particle fluxes that are part of the Earth’s ring current and radiation belts can intensify significantly during space weather events like geomagnetic storms and could cause severe damage to satellite-based technologies. Understanding the physical processes that control their dynamics and improving our capability for their prediction is thus extremely important. In the context of space weather applications and user needs, this paper provides a brief description of our kinetic ring current-atmosphere interactions model with self-consistent magnetic field (RAM-SCB) and its further extension to implement a self-consistent electric (E) field. Specific examples that demonstrate RAM-SCB capabilities and limitations to reproduce the near-Earth space weather environment are given. In this paper, the current status of RAM-SCB is assessed and plans for its further improvement are discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Dependence of EMIC wave parameters during quiet, geomagnetic storm, and geomagnetic storm phase times

As electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves may play an important role in radiation belt dynamics, there has been a push to better include them into global simulations. How to best include EMIC wave effects is still an open question. Recently many studies have attempted to parameterize EMIC waves and their characteristics by geomagnetic indices. However, this does not fully take into account important physics related to the phase of a geomagnetic storm. In this paper we first consider how EMIC wave occurrence varies with the phase of a geomagnetic storm and the SYM-H, AE, and Kp indices. Here we show that the storm phase plays an important role in the occurrence probability of EMIC waves. The occurrence rates for a given value of a geomagnetic index change based on the geomagnetic condition. Then in this study we also describe the typical plasma and wave parameters observed in L and magnetic local time for quiet, storm, and storm phase. These results are given in a tabular format in the supporting information so that more accurate statistics of EMIC wave parameters can be incorporated into modeling efforts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Prediction of Geomagnetic Storms and the K p index

Geomagnetic activity is often described using summary indices to summarize the likelihood of space weather impacts, as well as when parameterizing space weather models. The geomagnetic index K p in particular, is widely used for these purposes. Current state-of-the-art forecast models provide deterministic K p predictions using a variety of methods – including empirically-derived functions, physics-based models, and neural networks – but do not provide uncertainty estimates associated with the forecast. This paper provides a sample methodology to generate a 3-hour-ahead K p prediction with uncertainty bounds and from this provide a probabilistic geomagnetic storm forecast. Specifically, we have used a two-layered architecture to separately predict storm (K p ≥ 5 – ) and non-storm cases. As solar wind-driven models are limited in their ability to predict the onset of transient-driven activity we also introduce a model variant using solar X-ray flux to assess whether simple models including proxies for solar activity can improve the predictions of geomagnetic storm activity with lead times longer than the L1-to-Earth propagation time. By comparing the performance of these models we show that including operationally-available information about solar irradiance enhances the ability of predictive models to capture the onset of geomagnetic storms and that this can be achieved while also enabling probabilistic forecasts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying the Role of EMIC Wave Scattering During the 27 February 2014 Storm by RAM–SCB Simulations

Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron (EMIC) wave scattering has been proved to be responsible for the fast loss of both radiation belt (RB) electrons and ring current (RC) protons. However, its role in the concurrent dropout of these two co–located populations remains to be quantified. In this work, we study the effect of EMIC wave scattering on both populations during the 27 February 2014 storm by employing the global physics–based RAM–SCB model. Throughout this storm event, MeV RB electrons and 100s keV RC protons experienced simultaneous dropout following the occurrence of intense EMIC waves. By implementing data–driven initial and boundary conditions, we perform simulations for both populations through the interplay with EMIC waves and compare them against Van Allen Probes observations. Notably, the results indicate that by including EMIC wave scattering loss, especially by the He–band EMIC waves, the model aligns closely with data for both populations. Additionally, we investigate the simulated pitch angle distributions (PADs) for both populations. Including EMIC wave scattering in our model predicts a 90° peaked PAD for electrons with stronger losses at lower pitch angles, while protons exhibit an isotropic PAD with enhanced losses at pitch angles above 40°. Furthermore, our model predicts considerable precipitation of both particle populations, predominantly confined to the afternoon to midnight sector (12 hr < MLT < 24 hr) during the storm's main phase, corresponding closely with the presence of EMIC waves.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗