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NASA NTRS2002

Uncertainties in Estimates of the Risks of Late Effects from Space Radiation

The health risks faced by astronauts from space radiation include cancer, cataracts, hereditary effects, and non-cancer morbidity and mortality risks related to the diseases of the old age. Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Within the linear-additivity model, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain a Maximum Likelihood estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including ISS, lunar station, deep space outpost, and Mar's missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time, and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative objective's, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Local neighborhood transition probability estimation and its use in contextual classification

The problem of incorporating spatial or contextual information into classifications is considered. A simple model that describes the spatial dependencies between the neighboring pixels with a single parameter, Theta, is presented. Expressions are derived for updating the posteriori probabilities of the states of nature of the pattern under consideration using information from the neighboring patterns, both for spatially uniform context and for Markov dependencies in terms of Theta. Techniques for obtaining the optimal value of the parameter Theta as a maximum likelihood estimate from the local neighborhood of the pattern under consideration are developed.

Chittineni, C. B.↗

DOE OSTI2026

The DESI DR1 peculiar velocity survey: Growth rate measurements from the galaxy power spectrum

The large-scale structure of the Universe and its evolution encapsulate a wealth of cosmological information. A powerful means of unlocking this knowledge lies in measuring the auto-power spectrum and/or the cross-power spectrum of the galaxy density and momentum fields, followed by the estimation of cosmological parameters based on these spectrum measurements. In this study, we generalize the cross-power spectrum model to accommodate scenarios in which the density and momentum fields are derived from distinct galaxy surveys. The growth rate of the large-scale structures of the Universe, commonly represented as fσ 8 , was extracted by jointly fitting the monopole and quadrupole moments of the auto-density power spectrum, the monopole of the auto-momentum power spectrum, and the dipole of the cross-power spectrum. Our estimators, theoretical models, and parameter-fitting framework were tested using mocks, confirming their robustness and accuracy in retrieving the fiducial growth rate from simulation. These techniques were then applied to analyse the power spectrum of the DESI Bright Galaxy Survey and Peculiar Velocity Survey. The fit result of the growth rate is fσ8 = 0.440$^{+0.080}_{−0.096}$ at effective redshift zeff = 0.07. By synthesizing the fitting outcomes from correlation functions, maximum likelihood estimation, and the power spectrum, a consensus value is yielded of fσ 8 (z eff = 0.07) = 0.450$^{+0.055}_{−0.055}$, and correspondingly we obtain γ = 0.580$^{+0.110}_{−0.110}$, Ω m = 0.301$^{+0.011}_{−0.011}$, and σ 8 = 0.834$^{+0.032}_{−0.032}$. The measured fσ8 and γ are consistent with the prediction of the Λ cold dark matter model and general relativity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1975

Technical guidance and analytic services in support of SEASAT-A

The design of a high resolution radar for altimetry and ocean wave height estimation was studied. From basic principles, it is shown that a short pulse wide beam radar is the most appropriate and recommended technique for measuring both altitude and ocean wave height. To achieve a topographic resolution of + or - 10 cm RMS at 5.0 meter RMS wave heights, as required for SEASAT-A, it is recommended that the altimeter design include an onboard adaptive processor. The resulting design, which assumes a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) processor, is shown to satisfy all performance requirements. A design summary is given for the recommended radar altimeter, which includes a full deramp STRETCH pulse compression technique followed by an analog filter bank to separate range returns as well as the assumed MLE processor. The feedback loop implementation of the MLE on a digital computer was examined in detail, and computer size, estimation accuracies, and bias due to range sidelobes are given for the MLE with typical SEASAT-A parameters. The standard deviation of the altitude estimate was developed and evaluated for several adaptive and nonadaptive split-gate trackers. Split-gate tracker biases due to range sidelobes and transmitter noise are examined. An approximate closed form solution for the altimeter power return is derived and evaluated. The feasibility of utilizing the basic radar altimeter design for the measurement of ocean wave spectra was examined.

Brooks, W. L.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Cramer-Rao Bound for Gaussian Random Processes and Applications to Radar Processing of Atmospheric Signals

Calculations of the exact Cramer-Rao Bound (CRB) for unbiased estimates of the mean frequency, signal power, and spectral width of Doppler radar/lidar signals (a Gaussian random process) are presented. Approximate CRB's are derived using the Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT). These approximate results are equal to the exact CRB when the DFT coefficients are mutually uncorrelated. Previous high SNR limits for CRB's are shown to be inaccurate because the discrete summations cannot be approximated with integration. The performance of an approximate maximum likelihood estimator for mean frequency approaches the exact CRB for moderate signal to noise ratio and moderate spectral width.

Frehlich, Rod↗

NASA NTRS1989

A novel multistage estimation of the signal parameters of a possibly data-modulated sinusoid under very high dynamics

A novel multistage estimation scheme is presented for estimating the parameters of a received carrier signal possibly phase-modulated by unknown data, and experiencing very high Doppler, Doppler rate, etc. Such a situation arises, for example, in the case of Global Positioning Systems (GPS) where the signal parameters are directly related to the position, velocity, acceleration and jerk of the GPS receiver. In the proposed multistage scheme, the first stage estimator operates as a coarse estimator resulting in higher rms estimation errors but with a relatively small probability of the frequency estimation error exceeding one-half of the sampling frequency (an event termed cycle slip). The second state of the estimator operates on the error signal available from the first stage, refining the overall estimates, and in the process also reduces the number of cycle slips. The first stage algorithm is selected to be a modified least squares algorithm operating upon the differential signal model and referred to as differential least squares. This estimation stage provides relatively coarse estimates of the frequency and its derivatives. The second algorithm is simply an extended Kalman filter which also yields the estimate of the phase along with a more refined estimate of frequency as well. A major advantage of the proposed algorithm is a reduction in the threshold on received carrier power-to-noise power spectral density ratio as compared to the threshold achievable by either of these algorithms alone. In fact, it appears from the simulations that for the case of an unmodulated carrier, the proposed scheme achieves the same threshold as for an almost exact and computationally intensive implementation of the maximum likelihood estimator.

Kumar, Rajendra↗

DOE OSTI2025

The DESI DR1 Peculiar Velocity Survey: Growth Rate Measurements from the Galaxy Power Spectrum

The large-scale structure of the Universe and its evolution encapsulate a wealth of cosmological information. A powerful means of unlocking this knowledge lies in measuring the auto-power spectrum and/or the cross-power spectrum of the galaxy density and momentum fields, followed by the estimation of cosmological parameters based on these spectrum measurements. In this study, we generalize the cross-power spectrum model to accommodate scenarios where the density and momentum fields are derived from distinct galaxy surveys. The growth rate of the large-scale structures of the Universe, commonly represented as $fσ_8$, is extracted by jointly fitting the monopole and quadrupole moments of the auto-density power spectrum, the monopole of the auto-momentum power spectrum, and the dipole of the cross-power spectrum. Our estimators, theoretical models and parameter-fitting framework have been tested using mocks, confirming their robustness and accuracy in retrieving the fiducial growth rate from simulation. These techniques are then applied to analyze the power spectrum of the DESI Bright Galaxy Survey and Peculiar Velocity Survey, and the fit result of the growth rate is $fσ_8=0.440^{+0.080}_{-0.096}$ at effective redshift $z_{\rm eff}=0.07$. By synthesizing the fitting outcomes from correlation functions, maximum likelihood estimation and power spectrum, yields a consensus value of $fσ_8(z_{\rm eff}=0.07) = 0.450 ^{+0.055}_{-0.055}$, and correspondingly we obtain $γ=0.580^{+0.110}_{-0.110}$, $Ω_\mathrm{m}=0.301^{+0.011}_{-0.011}$ and $σ_8=0.834^{+0.032}_{-0.032}$. The measured $fσ_8$ and $γ$ are consistent with the prediction of the $Λ$ Cold Dark Matter Model and General Relativity.

Qin, F. [Marseille, CPPM] (ORCID:0000000179507864)↗

NASA NTRS2015

Predicting the Redshift 2 H-Alpha Luminosity Function Using [OIII] Emission Line Galaxies

Upcoming space-based surveys such as Euclid and WFIRST-AFTA plan to measure Baryonic Acoustic Oscillations (BAOs) in order to study dark energy. These surveys will use IR slitless grism spectroscopy to measure redshifts of a large number of galaxies over a significant redshift range. In this paper, we use the WFC3 Infrared Spectroscopic Parallel Survey (WISP) to estimate the expected number of H-alpha emitters observable by these future surveys. WISP is an ongoing Hubble Space Telescope slitless spectroscopic survey, covering the 0.8 - 1.65 micrometers wavelength range and allowing the detection of H-alpha emitters up to z approximately equal to 1.5 and [OIII] emitters to z approximately equal to 2.3. We derive the H-alpha-[OIII] bivariate line luminosity function for WISP galaxies at z approximately equal to 1 using a maximum likelihood estimator that properly accounts for uncertainties in line luminosity measurement, and demonstrate how it can be used to derive the H-alpha luminosity function from exclusively fitting [OIII] data. Using the z approximately equal to 2 [OIII] line luminosity function, and assuming that the relation between H-alpha and [OIII] luminosity does not change significantly over the redshift range, we predict the H-alpha number counts at z approximately equal to 2 - the upper end of the redshift range of interest for the future surveys. For the redshift range 0.7 less than z less than 2, we expect approximately 3000 galaxies per sq deg for a flux limit of 3 x 10(exp −16) ergs per sec per sq cm (the proposed depth of Euclid galaxy redshift survey) and approximately 20,000 galaxies per sq deg for a flux limit of approximately 10(exp −16) ergs per sec per sq cm (the baseline depth of WFIRST galaxy redshift survey).

Redshift↗

NASA NTRS1983

The application of parameter estimation to flight measurements to obtain lateral-directional stability derivatives of an augmented jet-flap STOL airplane

Flight experiments with an augmented jet flap STOL aircraft provided data from which the lateral directional stability and control derivatives were calculated by applying a linear regression parameter estimation procedure. The tests, which were conducted with the jet flaps set at a 65 deg deflection, covered a large range of angles of attack and engine power settings. The effect of changing the angle of the jet thrust vector was also investigated. Test results are compared with stability derivatives that had been predicted. The roll damping derived from the tests was significantly larger than had been predicted, whereas the other derivatives were generally in agreement with the predictions. Results obtained using a maximum likelihood estimation procedure are compared with those from the linear regression solutions.

Stephenson, J. D.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Radar satellite altimetry and ocean wave height estimation

The design of a radar satellite altimeter having a plus or minus 10 cm topographic resolution at 20 meter (peak-to-trough) ocean wave heights is described. In addition to altimetry, the resulting design also provides a measurement of significant wave height over the range of 1.0 to 20 meters to within plus or minus 10%. A full deramp pulse compression technique followed by an analog filter bank to separate individual range returns is used in the radar transmitter/receiver design to reduce the A/D converter bandwidth from a rather impractical 330 MHz to less than 1 MHz. The altimeter design utilizes an onboard maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) processor to achieve the plus or minus 10 cm topographic resolution. It is shown that an MLE processor provides simultaneous optimum (minimum variance) estimates of satellite altitude, ocean wave height and electromagnetic ocean surface reflectivity.

Dooley, R. P.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Distributed parameter modeling of the structural dynamics of the Solar Array Flight Experiment

A distributed-parameter model of the structural dynamics of the space-shuttle-deployed Solar Array Flight Experiment is developed and used to produce estimates of the modal frequencies and mode shapes. A lumped parameter version of the distributed model is used to estimate model characteristics by analyzing the measured responses of 32 targets. To make the modeling more tenable, a distributed parameter system is used to reduce the number of unknown parameters, a modified Newton-Raphson technique is used for rapid convergence, and a parallel processing supercomputer is used for more efficient computation. The performances of computers with a high-speed serial processor and with a high-speed parallel processor are compared. The best results are obtained with the modeling approach in which maximum likelihood estimation is applied to distributed parameter models.

Taylor, L. W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes - Validation of ERBE scanner inversion algorithm using Nimbus-7 ERB data

The ERBE algorithm is applied to the Nimbus-7 earth radiation budget (ERB) scanner data for June 1979 to analyze the performance of an inversion method in deriving top-of-atmosphere albedos and longwave radiative fluxes. The performance is assessed by comparing ERBE algorithm results with appropriate results derived using the sorting-by-angular-bins (SAB) method, the ERB MATRIX algorithm, and the 'new-cloud ERB' (NCLE) algorithm. Comparisons are made for top-of-atmosphere albedos, longwave fluxes, viewing zenith-angle dependence of derived albedos and longwave fluxes, and cloud fractional coverage. Using the SAB method as a reference, the rms accuracy of monthly average ERBE-derived results are estimated to be 0.0165 (5.6 W/sq m) for albedos (shortwave fluxes) and 3.0 W/sq m for longwave fluxes. The ERBE-derived results were found to depend systematically on the viewing zenith angle, varying from near nadir to near the limb by about 10 percent for albedos and by 6-7 percent for longwave fluxes. Analyses indicated that the ERBE angular models are the most likely source of the systematic angular dependences. Comparison of the ERBE-derived cloud fractions, based on a maximum-likelihood estimation method, with results from the NCLE showed agreement within about 10 percent.

Suttles, John T.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Fan Beam Emission Tomography for Estimating Scalar Properties in Laminar Flames

A new method of estimating temperatures and gas species concentrations (CO2 and H2O) in a laminar flame is reported. The path-integrated, spectral radiation intensities emitted from a laminar flame at multiple wavelengths and view angles are calculated using a narrow band radiation model. Synthetic data, in the form of radial profiles of temperature and gas concentrations, are used in these calculations. The calculations mimic measurements that would theoretically be obtained using a mid-infrared spectrometer with a scanner. The path integrated spectral radiation intensities are deconvoluted using a maximum likelihood estimation method in conjunction with an iterative scheme. The deconvolution algorithm accounts for the self-absorption of radiation by the intervening gases, and provides the local temperature and gas species concentrations. The deconvoluted temperatures and gas concentrations are compared with the synthetic data used for calculating the spectral radiation intensities. The deconvoluted temperatures and gas species concentrations are within 0.5 % of the synthetic data. The deconvolution algorithm is expected to provide combustion researchers with an easy method of obtaining the radial profiles of major gas species concentrations and temperatures in laminar flames non-intrusively using a mid-infrared spectrometer with a scanner.

Lim, Jongmook↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Impact of Rise of the Andes and Amazon Landscape Evolution on Diversification of Lowland terra-firme Forest Birds

Since the 19th Century, the unmatched biological diversity of Amazonia has stimulated a diverse set of hypotheses accounting for patterns of species diversity and distribution in mega-diverse tropical environments. Unfortunately, the evidence supporting particular hypotheses to date is at best described as ambiguous, and no generalizations have emerged yet, mostly due to the lack of comprehensive comparative phylogeographic studies with thorough trans-Amazonian sampling of lineages. Here we report on spatial and temporal patterns of diversification estimated from mitochondrial gene trees for 31 lineages of birds associated with upland terra-firme forest, the dominant habitat in modern lowland Amazonia. The results confirm the pervasive role of Amazonian rivers as primary barriers separating sister lineages of birds, and a protracted spatio-temporal pattern of diversification, with a gradual reduction of earlier (1st and 2nd) and older (> 2 mya) splits associated with each lineage in an eastward direction. (The easternmost tributaries of the Amazon, the Xingu and Tocantins Rivers, are not associated with any splits older than > 2 mya). For the suboscine passerines, maximum-likelihood estimates of rates of diversification point to an overall constant rate over the past 5 my (up to a significant downturn at 300,000 y ago). This "younging-eastward" pattern may have an abiotic explanation related to landscape evolution. Triggered by a new pulse of Andean uplift, it has been proposed that modern Amazon basin landscapes may have evolved successively eastward, away from the mountain chain, starting approximately 10 mya. This process was likely based on the deposition of vast fluvial sediment masses, known as megafans, that may have extended progressively and in series eastward from Andean sources. This process plausibly explains the progressive extinction of original Pebas wetland of western-central Amazonia by the present fluvial landsurfaces of a more terra-firme type. The youngest landsurfaces thus lie furthest from the mountains. In this scenario major drainages were also reoriented in wholesale fashion away from a northerly orientation generally towards the east and an Atlantic Ocean outlet. The advance of megafans is best seen by the location of axial rivers such as the Orinoco and Mamore which lie against the cratonic margins furthest from the Andes, at the distal ends of major megafan ramparts. More importantly, other major river courses in western-central Amazonia will have been established at progressively younger dates with distance eastward. If this landscape-sequence scenario is accurate, it parallels the progressive younging of the passerine lineages. The bird DNA data appears to confirm strongly the pervasive role of Amazonian rivers--as primary barriers separating sister lineages of birds, and thus probably as facilitaters of bird speciation. We show for the first time that a general spatio-temporal pattern of diversification for terra-firme lineages in the Amazon is associated with rivers ("younging-eastward"), and furthermore parallels a specific scenario of regional drainage evolution.

Aleixo, Alexandre↗

NASA NTRS1981

Selected stability and control derivatives from the first Space Shuttle entry

Primary stability and control derivative estimates garnered from the first Shuttle entry are reported. The craft was the first vehicle to maneuver over a wide range of hypersonic velocities, yielding data on flight characteristics from previously unexplored regimes. The flight envelope was confined to entry and safe landing, with no additional maneuvers to gain control data. Data for a Mach number range of 25-1.5 and altitudes of 515,000-50,000 ft are provided, and functional ranges of the Shuttle control surfaces and attitude jets are outlined. On-board systems gathered data on aerodynamic coefficient identification, flight condition and Euler angles, and jet chamber pressures. A maximum likelihood estimation program, which contained unknown stability and control derivatives, was used for control; a control input determined the value of the unknown derivatives, and the input and spacecraft response were measured. Longitudinal and lateral directional maneuvers and their derivative estimates are described, noting wind contamination of the sideslip measurements below Mach 3. Further maneuvering and stability tests are projected for subsequent flights.

Iliff, K. W.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Quaternion Averaging

Many applications require an algorithm that averages quaternions in an optimal manner. For example, when combining the quaternion outputs of multiple star trackers having this output capability, it is desirable to properly average the quaternions without recomputing the attitude from the the raw star tracker data. Other applications requiring some sort of optimal quaternion averaging include particle filtering and multiple-model adaptive estimation, where weighted quaternions are used to determine the quaternion estimate. For spacecraft attitude estimation applications, derives an optimal averaging scheme to compute the average of a set of weighted attitude matrices using the singular value decomposition method. Focusing on a 4-dimensional quaternion Gaussian distribution on the unit hypersphere, provides an approach to computing the average quaternion by minimizing a quaternion cost function that is equivalent to the attitude matrix cost function Motivated by and extending its results, this Note derives an algorithm that deterniines an optimal average quaternion from a set of scalar- or matrix-weighted quaternions. Rirthermore, a sufficient condition for the uniqueness of the average quaternion, and the equivalence of the mininiization problem, stated herein, to maximum likelihood estimation, are shown.

Markley, F. Landis↗

NASA NTRS1999

How to Estimate Attitude from Vector Observations

In many spacecraft attitude systems, the attitude observations are naturally represented as unit vectors. Typical examples are the unit vectors giving the direction to the sun or a star and the unit vector in the direction of the Earth's magnetic field. In 1965, Grace Wahba, proposed the following problem: Find the orthogonal matrix A with determinant +1 that minimizes the loss function L(A) is identity with 1/2(Sum from i a(sub i) (absolute value of b(sub i - A(r(sub i))(exp 2))) where the set of b(sub i) is a set of unit vectors measured in a spacecraft's body frame, the set of r(sub i) are the corresponding unit vectors in a reference frame, and the set of a(sub i) are non-negative weights. Wahba's problem can be related to Maximum Likelihood Estimation if the weights are chosen to be inverse variances, a(sub i) = sigma((sub -2). Wahba didn't assume this, but it will be convenient to assume it in this paper. Wahba'soptimality condition has provided the basis for many attitude determination algorithms. The purpose of this paper is to give an overview of the most popular and most promising algorithm and to provide accuracy and speed comparisons.

Markley,F. Landis↗

NASA NTRS1994

Applying transfer matrix method to the estimation of the modal characteristics of the NASA Mini-Mass Truss

It is beneficial to use a distributed parameter model for large space structures because the approach minimizes the number of model parameters. Holzer's transfer matrix method provides a useful means to simplify and standardize the procedure for solving the system of partial differential equations. Any large space structures can be broken down into sub-structures with simple elastic and dynamical properties. For each single element, such as beam, tether, or rigid body, we can derive the corresponding transfer matrix. Combining these elements' matrices enables the solution of the global system equations. The characteristics equation can then be formed by satisfying the appropriate boundary conditions. Then natural frequencies and mode shapes can be determined by searching the roots of the characteristic equation at frequencies within the range of interest. This paper applies this methodology, and the maximum likelihood estimation method, to refine the modal characteristics of the NASA Mini-Mast Truss by successively matching the theoretical response to the test data of the truss. The method is being applied to more complex configurations.

Shen, Ji-Yao↗