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Characteristics and Origins of Frontal Convection During IMPACTS on 25 January 2020

This presentation will discuss the characteristics of frontal convection and its estimation from the ER-2 multifrequency nadir reflectivity and Doppler velocity from a warm-occlusion frontal system that traversed across the Northeast U.S. on 25 January 2020. This system that occurred during the IMPACTS field deployment, brought widespread clouds and precipitation to the Northeast. The system brought primarily rain in most areas of more intense rainfall associated with embedded convection near the frontal band and some freezing rain and/or snowfall in the northern regions or higher terrain due to the pre-existing low-level cold air. The NASA ER-2 instrumented with multifrequency radar and the NASA P-3 with in situ microphysics measurements both collected data from this system. The focus of this presentation is on the estimation of vertical velocity in convective and non-convective regions using the ER-2 nadir Doppler measurements. Vertical velocities are inherently difficult to estimate in frontal systems at mesoscale and below other than from direct in situ measurement because of their small magnitudes and errors in the measurements. Estimates from nadir Doppler measurements such as from the ER-2 are challenging because of both Doppler velocity uncertainties and the need to estimate particle fallspeed since the Doppler measurement is the vertical velocity plus the hydrometeor fallspeed. In the presentation, the vertical velocity estimation, its associated errors, and a possible mitigation scheme are described. The characteristics of the convective and stratiform regions on 25 January 2020 are discussed. The vertical velocity estimated from the nadir Doppler measurements are compared with P-3 in situ measurements. Estimation of vertical velocity is one of the goals for upcoming spaceborne missions such as EarthCare and ACCP.

Gerald M. Heymsfield↗

NASA NTRS2008

Effects of Moist Convection on Hurricane Predictability

This study exemplifies inherent uncertainties in deterministic prediction of hurricane formation and intensity. Such uncertainties could ultimately limit the predictability of hurricanes at all time scales. In particular, this study highlights the predictability limit due to the effects on moist convection of initial-condition errors with amplitudes far smaller than those of any observation or analysis system. Not only can small and arguably unobservable differences in the initial conditions result in different routes to tropical cyclogenesis, but they can also determine whether or not a tropical disturbance will significantly develop. The details of how the initial vortex is built can depend on chaotic interactions of mesoscale features, such as cold pools from moist convection, whose timing and placement may significantly vary with minute initial differences. Inherent uncertainties in hurricane forecasts illustrate the need for developing advanced ensemble prediction systems to provide event-dependent probabilistic forecasts and risk assessment.

Zhang, Fuqing↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Impact of Dry Saharan Air on Tropical Cyclone Intensification

The controversial role of the dry Saharan Air Layer (SAL) on tropical storm intensification in the Atlantic will be addressed. The SAL has been argued in previous studies to have potential positive influences on storm development, but most recent studies have argued for a strong suppressing influence on storm intensification as a result of dry air, high stability, increased vertical wind shear, and microphysical impacts of dust. Here, we focus on observations of Hurricane Helene (2006), which occurred during the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Activities (NAMMA) experiment. Satellite and airborne observations, combined with global meteorological analyses depict the initial environment of Helene as being dominated by the SAL, although with minimal evidence that the SAL air actually penetrated to the core of the disturbance. Over the next several days, the SAL air quickly moved westward and was gradually replaced by a very dry, dust-free layer associated with subsidence. Despite the wrapping of this very dry air around the storm, Helene intensified steadily to a Category 3 hurricane suggesting that the dry air was unable to significantly slow storm intensification. Several uncertainties remain about the role of the SAL in Helene (and in tropical cyclones in general). To better address these uncertainties, NASA will be conducting a three year airborne campaign called the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3). The HS3 objectives are: To obtain critical measurements in the hurricane environment in order to identify the role of key factors such as large-scale wind systems (troughs, jet streams), Saharan air masses, African Easterly Waves and their embedded critical layers (that help to isolate tropical disturbances from hostile environments). To observe and understand the three-dimensional mesoscale and convective-scale internal structures of tropical disturbances and cyclones and their role in intensity change. The mission objectives will be achieved using two Global Hawk (GH) Unmanned Airborne Systems (UASs) with separate comprehensive environmental and over-storm payloads. The GH flight altitudes (>16.8 km) allow overflights of most convection and sampling of upper-tropospheric winds. Deployments from Goddard s Wallops Flight Facility and ~26-hour flight durations will provide coverage of the entire Atlantic Ocean basin, and on-station times up to 5-22 h depending on storm location. Deployments will be in September of 2012 and from late-August to late- September 2013-2014, with up to eleven 26-h flights per deployment.

Braun, Scott A.↗

NASA NTRS1983

A nested-grid mesoscale numerical weather prediction model modified for Space Shuttle operational requirements

A nested-grid mesoscale atmospheric simulation system (MASS) is tested over Florida for the case of intense seabreeze-induced convection. The goal of this modeling system is to provide real-time aviation weather support which is designed to fit local terminal operations such as those supporting NASA's STS. Results from a 58 km and a 14.5 km nested-grid simulation show that this version of the MASS is capable of simulating many of the basic characteristics of convective complexes during periods of relatively weak synoptic scale flow regimes. However, it is noted that extensive development work is required with nested-grid cumulus and planetary boundary layer parameterization schemes before many of the meso-beta scale features such as thunderstorm downdraft-produced bubble high pressure centers can be accurately simulated. After these schemes are properly tuned, MASS can be utilized to initialize microscale modeling systems.

Kaplan, M. L.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Mesoscale characteristics of monsoonal convection and associated stratiform precipitation

Observations undertaken on 12 January 1990 at Darwin (Australia) are used to document the structure of a monsoonal rainband in a low convective available potential energy low-shear tropical environment. Dual-Doppler radar analyses are employed to investigate the structure and kinematics of the convective and stratiform regions. A system with the characteristics of a relatively short-lived squall line in which warm rain processes play a significant role in the production of precipitation is evident. Planetary boundary layer cold-pool production is important in the organization and motion of the system. A trailing stratiform region is evident with a mean updraft-downdraft circulation, but is composed of in situ decaying convective cells. A storm-relative mesoscale cyclonic circulation is also observed within the stratiform cloud. This vortex was maintained by thermodynamically induced midlevel convergence, convectively generated storm-scale circulations, and their interaction with the background monsoon flow.

Keenan, Thomas D.↗

NASA NTRS2019

The Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation and Organized Convection in a Set of Global Mesoscale Simulations with the NASA GEOS AGCM

The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) has conducted a series of 40-day nonhydrostatic global simulations with horizontal grid spacing ranging from 200 km to 3 km, as part of the DYAMOND model intercomparison project. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model was run with the Grell-Freitas scale-aware convection scheme, which smoothly reduces parameterized deep convection with increasing resolution. Here we evaluate the diurnal cycle and other statistics of precipitation and organized convection as a function of resolution. For validation we use the 0.1 degree IMERG precipitation and 4 km Merged IR brightness temperature datasets, focusing on four regions: the continental United States, Amazonia, the equatorial Indian ocean, and the Maritime Continent. Early results indicate good phase agreement but excessive magnitude of the continental diurnal cycle of precipitation at coarser resolutions, with improved magnitude as resolution increases and the role of parameterization is reduced. Convective cloud clusters are identified with a brightness temperature threshold, and we find realistic numbers of the largest clusters (>10^4 km sq) at all resolutions, while the number of smaller clusters increases with resolution, approaching observations when dx=3 km. The observed diurnal cycle in the cluster size distribution is also reproduced, with realistic magnitude in the highest resolution runs. Precipitation characteristics across cluster sizes are also examined. The results show the potential for global mesoscale simulations as a community science resource, and we invite collaboration to explore these runs in greater detail.

Arnold, Nathan↗

NASA NTRS1988

Effects of spatial variations of soil moisture and vegetation on the initiation of a local severe storm

The role of evapotranspiration in a prestorm environment and the way in which a local severe storm initiates under the influence of spatial variations of soil moisture and vegetation coverage are examined. The Goddard Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (Kaplan et al., 1982) is used to study the case of an isolated but intense convective storm associated with the Grand Island, Nebraska, tornado on June 3-4, 1980. It is found that spatial variations of vegetation and soil moisture increase the surface temperature gradient, enhance the thermally direct ageostrophic circulation, intensify the surface pressure gradient, and enhance the geostrophic low-level southerly flow.

Chang, Jy-Tai↗

NASA NTRS1979

Development of a severe local storm prediction system: A 60-day test of a mesoscale primitive equation model

The progress and problems associated with the dynamical forecast system which was developed to predict severe storms are examined. The meteorological problem of severe convective storm forecasting is reviewed. The cascade hypothesis which forms the theoretical core of the nested grid dynamical numerical modelling system is described. The dynamical and numerical structure of the model used during the 1978 test period is presented and a preliminary description of a proposed multigrid system for future experiments and tests is provided. Six cases from the spring of 1978 are discussed to illustrate the model's performance and its problems. Potential solutions to the problems are examined.

Paine, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2008

A Multi-Scale Modeling System with Unified Physics

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

NASA NTRS2007

Using Multi-scale Modeling Systems to Study the Precipitation Processes

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

NASA NTRS2007

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

This report describes the work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in assessing the success of different model configurations in predicting warm season convection over East-Central Florida. The Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System (WRF EMS) software allows users to choose among two dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model - the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Besides model core and initialization options, the WRF model can be run with one- or two-way nesting. Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, creates challenges for local forecasters, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. This project assessed three different model intializations available to determine which configuration best predicts warm season convective initiation in East-Central Florida. The project also examined the use of one- and two-way nesting in predicting warm season convection.

Watson, Leela R.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Accuracy of diagnostic heat and moisture budgets using SESAME-79 field data as revealed by observing system simulation experiments

Observing system simulation experiments are used to investigate the accuracy of diagnostic heat and moisture budgets which employ the AVE-SESAME 1979 data. The time-including, four-dimensional data set of a mesoscale model is used to simulate rawinsonde observations from AVE-SESAME 1979. The 5 C/day (heat budget) and 2 g/kg per day (moisture budget) magnitudes of error obtained indicate difficulties in the diagnosis of the heating rate in weak convective systems. The influences exerted by observational frequency, objective analysis, observational density, vertical interpolation, and observational errors on the budget are also studied, and it is found that the temporal and spatial resolution of the SESAME regional network is marginal for diagnosing convective effects on a horizontal time scale of 550 x 550 km.

Kuo, Y.-H.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Tropical Waves and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a 7-km Global Climate Simulation

This study investigates tropical waves and their role in driving a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO)-like signal in stratospheric winds in a global 7-km-horizontal-resolution atmospheric general circulation model. The Nature Run (NR) is a 2-year global mesoscale simulation of the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5). In the tropics, there is evidence that the NR supports a broad range of convectively generated waves. The NR precipitation spectrum resembles the observed spectrum in many aspects, including the preference for westward-propagating waves. However, even with very high horizontal resolution and a healthy population of resolved waves, the zonal force provided by the resolved waves is still too low in the QBO region and parameterized gravity wave drag is the main driver of the NR QBO-like oscillation (NRQBO). The authors suggest that causes include coarse vertical resolution and excessive dissipation. Nevertheless, the very-high-resolution NR provides an opportunity to analyze the resolved wave forcing of the NR-QBO. In agreement with previous studies, large-scale Kelvin and small-scale waves contribute to the NRQBO driving in eastward shear zones and small-scale waves dominate the NR-QBO driving in westward shear zones. Waves with zonal wavelength,1000 km account for up to half of the small-scale (,3300 km) resolved wave forcing in eastward shear zones and up to 70% of the small-scale resolved wave forcing in westward shear zones of the NR-QBO.

NR-QBO↗

NASA NTRS1985

Validation of mesocale number sea breeze thunderstorm forecasts over Florida using LPATS - The Lightning Position and Tracking System

The research reported in the present paper has the objective to develop improved operational techniques for sea breeze (SB) initiated convective storms. It is pointed out that the sea breeze is a relatively simple mesoscale circulation. The considered studies are mainly concerned with detailed thunderstorm potential forecasts during the next several hours, taking into account real-time predictions using new supercomputer technology. Thunderstorm and coastal mesoscale circulations are discussed along with the P3DM model sea. The considered code represents the result of a further development of the NOAA Florida sea breeze model which was introduced by Pielke (1974). After its modificataion, the model was renamed the Prognostic Three Dimensional Mesoscale (P3DM) Model, with its 2-D connterpart the P2DM. Attention is also given to real time climatology, and a case study concerned with developments occurring on 5 May 1984 over the Florida Peninsula.

Lyons, W. A.↗

NASA NTRS2002

CRYSTAL-FACE: A Field Experiment and Modeling Program Focused on Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers

The Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers - Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) is a measurement campaign designed to investigate tropical Cirrus cloud physical properties and formation processes. Understanding the production of upper tropospheric cirrus clouds is essential for the successful modeling of 'he Earth's climate. The deployment phase will occur in July, 2002 in southern Florida, USA. Several aircraft will be used, including the ER-2 and Proteus for cloud remote sensing, the WB-57 and Citation for in situ cloud measurements, the P-3 with a Doppler radar for characterization of convective systems, and the Twin otter for sampling of inflow airmasses. In addition, numerous ground-based and satellite remote sensing measurements will be contributing. A central focus of the mission is improvement of our ability to model cirrus clouds with numerical models. Several research groups with a variety of model types (cloud-resolving models, mesoscale models, weather-prediction models, and general circulation models) will be participating. Our hope is to fully characterize several mulonimbus/cirrus anvil systems that can be used as case studies for testing and improvement of the models. The models will be used for investigating cirrus generation and dissipation processes and the sensitivity of tropical cirrus to convective intensity and aerosol properties. Ultimately, we expect this effort to improve our ability to represent tropical cirrus in GCMs. A general description of the CRYSTAL-FACE program will be presented, with an emphasis on the cloud modeling approach.

Jenson, Eric↗

NASA NTRS1989

Planned ER-2 Doppler radar (EDOP) for studying convective storms and mesoscale phenomena

A radar development is presently funded by the NASA Mesoscale Atmospheric Research Program to build an X-band Doppler radar (EDOP) for the ER-2 aircraft for measuring the structure of updrafts and downdrafts in deep convective systems. In this paper, the radar's scientific objectives and characteristics are briefly reviewed. These objectives include documentation of deep isolated thunderstorms, examination of cloud top and anvil structure, structure of microscale convective systems, cloud microphysics, and testing of satellite precipitation estimation algorithms. System specifications for the radar are given.

Heymsfield, Gerald M.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Relationships between the Raindrop Size Distribution and Properties of the Environment and Clouds Inferred from TRMM

Variability in the raindrop sized distribution (DSD) has long been recognized as a source of uncertainty in relationships between radar reflectivity Z and rain rate R. In this study, we analyze DSD retrievals from two years of data gathered by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and processed with a combined radar-radiometer retrieval algorithm over the global oceans equatorward of 35◦. Numerous variables describing properties of each reflectivity profile, large-scale organization, and the background environment are examined for relationships to the reflectivity-normalized median drop diameter, epsilonDSD. In general, we find that higher freezing levels and relative humidities are associated with smaller epsilonDSD. Within a given environment, the mesoscale organization of precipitation and the vertical profile of reflectivity are associated with DSD characteristics. In the tropics, the smallest epsilonDSD values are found in large but shallow convective systems, where warm rain formation processes are thought to be predominant, whereas larger sizes are found in the stratiform regions of organized deep convection. In the extratropics, the largest epsilonDSD values are found in the scattered convection that occurs when cold, dry continental air moves over the much warmer ocean after the passage of a cold front. The geographical distribution of the retrieved DSDs is consistent with many of the observed regional Z−R relationships found in the literature as well as discrepancies between the TRMM radar-only and radiometer-only precipitation products. In particular, mid-latitude and tropical regions near land tend to have larger drops for a given reflectivity, whereas the smallest drops are found in the eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone.

raindrop size distribution↗

NASA NTRS2006

Using Multi-scale Modeling System to Study the Interactions between Clouds, Precipitation, Aerosols, Radiation and Land Surface

Numerical cloud models, which are based the non-hydrostatic equations of motion, have been extensively applied to cloud-scale and mesoscale processes during the past four decades. Because cloud-scale dynamics are treated explicitly, uncertainties stemming from convection that have to be parameterized in (hydrostatic) large-scale models are obviated, or at least mitigated, in cloud models. Global models will use the non-hydrostatic framework when their horizontal resolution becomes about 10 kilometers, the theoretical limit for the hydrostatic approximation. This juncture will be reached one to two decades from now. Over the past generation, voluminous datasets on atmospheric convection have been accumulated from radar, instrumented aircraft, satellites, and rawinsonde measurements in field campaigns, enabling the detailed evaluation of models. Improved numerical methods have resulted in more accurate and efficient dynamical cores in models. Improvements have been made in the parameterizations of microphysical processes, radiation, boundary-layer effects, and turbulence; however, microphysical parameterizations remain a major source of uncertainty in all classes of atmospheric models. In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended cloud-resolving-model integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-kilometer scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 kilometers in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 square kilometers in three-dimensions. Cloud models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique. A review of developments, improvements and applications of cloud models (GCE and WRF) at Goddard will be presented in this talk. In particular, a new approach to using multi-scale modeling system to study the interactions between clouds, precipitation, aerosols and land will be presented.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗