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DOE OSTI2021

A Simple Lagrangian Parcel Model for the Initiation of Summer-time Mesoscale Convective Systems over the Central United States

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) account for more than 50% of summertime precipitation over the central United States and have a significant impact on local weather and hydrologic cycle. It is hypothesized that the inadequate treatment of MCSs is responsible for the long-standing warm and dry bias over the central United States in coarse-resolution general circulation model (GCM) simulations. In particular, a better understanding of MCS initiation is still lacking. Here a single-column Lagrangian parcel model is first developed to simulate the basic features of a rising parcel. This simple model demonstrates the collective effects of boundary layer moistening and dynamical lifting in triggering convective initiation and reproduces successfully its early afternoon peak with surface equivalent potential temperature as a controlling factor. It also predicts that convection is harder to trigger in the future climate under global warming, consistent with the results from convection-permitting regional climate simulations. Then, a multicolumn model that includes an array of single-column models aligned in the east–west direction and incorporates idealized cold pool interaction mechanisms is developed. The multicolumn model captures readily the cold pool–induced upscale growth feature in MCS genesis from initially scattered convection that is organized into a mesoscale cluster in a few hours. It also highlights the crucial role of lifting effects due to cold pool collision and spreading, subsidence effect, and gust front propagation speed in controlling the final size of mesoscale clusters and cold pool regions. This simple model should be useful for understanding fundamental mechanisms of MCS initiation and providing guidance for improving MCS simulations in GCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Structure of Water Adsorbed on Nanocrystalline Calcium Silicate Hydrate Determined from Neutron Scattering and Molecular Dynamics Simulations

Calcium silicate hydrate (C-S-H) is a disordered, nanocrystalline material that acts as a primary binding phase in Portland cement. Thin films of water are present on the surfaces and in nanopores of C-S-H, impacting many of its chemical and mechanical properties, such as ion transport, creep, or thermal behavior. Despite decades of research, a full understanding of the structural details of adsorbed, confined, and bulk water in C-S-H remains elusive. In this work, we applied a multitechnique study involving molecular dynamics (MD) simulations validated by neutron diffraction with isotopic substitution (NDIS) and X-ray scattering methods to investigate the structure of water in C-S-H and C-A-S-H (an Al-bearing, low-CO 2 C-S-H substitute). Direct comparison of NDIS data with the MD results reveals that the structure of confined and interfacial water differs significantly from the bulk water and exhibits a larger degree of mesoscale ordering for more hydrated C-S-H structures. As a result, this observation suggests an important role of water as a stabilizer of the atomistic-level structure of C-S-H.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling Offshore Wind Farm Performance in Coastal Low-Level Jets Using Coupled Mesoscale-Microscale Large Eddy Simulations

Accurately predicting wind farm reliability under complex offshore atmospheric conditions remains a key challenge, particularly during noncanonical meteorological events such as coastal low-level jets (LLJs). LLJs, characterized by strong nonmonotonic vertical shear and directional veer, depart significantly from the simplified inflow assumptions embedded in conventional design standards, low-fidelity engineering models, and microscale large eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary layer. In this work, we use the virtual wind farm framework—an exascale, graphics processing unit–accelerated large eddy simulation platform coupled with high-fidelity aeroservoelastic turbine models and advanced mesoscale-microscale coupling via the ExaWind software stack—to investigate turbine responses under realistic LLJ forcing. Simulations are performed over the U.S. North Atlantic offshore domain with the use of meteorological inputs from New York State Energy Research and Development Authority buoy data, focusing on a representative LLJ case impacting the International Energy Agency 15 MW reference turbine. Our results show that LLJs can cause up to 50% power deficits in downstream turbine rows and significantly amplify low-speed shaft and tower loads through nonlinear coupling between complex inflow characteristics and turbine structural dynamics. Two primary mechanisms drive these load amplifications: (1) unique LLJ inflow features—including veer and vertical/lateral shear—and (2) the downstream evolution of the flow under stable thermal stratification, which suppresses turbulence mixing and alters wake recovery. These mechanisms produce streamwise variations in turbine loading not captured by standard hub height–based metrics or existing design load case (DLC) definitions. This study highlights the critical role of rotor-scale flow gradients in driving fatigue and system-level aeroelastic responses, challenging current DLC and control strategies. We advocate the integration of full-flow field, environment-aware wind inputs into load modeling and control algorithms. By leveraging exascale computing to resolve mesoscale-microscale coupling, this work lays the groundwork for next-generation offshore wind turbine design and operation in meteorologically complex marine environments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Amplified Mesoscale and Submesoscale Variability and Increased Concentration of Precipitation under Global Warming over Western North America

Abstract Cold-season precipitation statistics in simulations from the storm-resolving WRF Model at 6-km and 1-h resolution over western North America are analyzed. Pseudo–global warming future simulations for the 2041–80 period, constrained by GCMs under the RCP8.5 scenario, are compared to the 1981–2020 historical simulation. The analysis focuses on the dynamical properties of precipitation time series at subdaily scales and on the morphology of storms. The statistical distribution of precipitation intensities in each pixel of the simulation domain is characterized through nonparametric statistical indicators: frequency of wet hours, mean wet-hour precipitation intensity, and Gini coefficient as a measure of the temporal concentration of the precipitation volume. Additionally, the temporal and spatial Fourier power spectra of precipitation time series and precipitation fields are analyzed. The half-power period (HPP) and half-power wavelength (HPW) are defined as spectral measures of the characteristic scales of precipitation’s temporal and spatial patterns. The results show statistically significant increases in the mean wet-hour precipitation intensity and in the Gini coefficient in 99% of the pixels, indicating that the seasonal precipitation volume becomes more concentrated within a smaller number of hours with higher precipitation intensity. The statistics of change in the frequency of wet hours are more contrasted across the simulation domain. The changes are also reflected in the power spectra, which show the spatial and temporal variability increasing proportionally more with finer spatial and temporal scales and the HPW and HPP decreasing. These projected changes are expected to have consequences, not only in terms of hydrologic impacts but also in terms of the predictability of precipitation patterns. Significance Statement The precipitation characteristics of winter storms over the western United States and southwestern Canada are analyzed in future climate simulations for the 2041–80 period. As compared to present-day climate, the most intense parts of the storms are projected to produce a higher rainfall volume, with increased concentration over smaller areas and shorter time intervals. The propensity of rainfall intensity to vary rapidly over time will be enhanced in the future according to the simulations. These model predictions imply an increased risk of rapid flooding in small basins. They also suggest that predicting several hours ahead the time and location at which a storm will produce maximum rainfall may become more challenging in the future.

Climate change↗

DOE OSTI2026

Record-Breaking Atmospheric River Drives April 2024 Extreme Precipitation in the United Arab Emirates and the Surrounding Gulf Region

In mid-April 2024, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the surrounding Gulf region experienced unprecedented rainfall and catastrophic flooding, causing widespread damage, loss of life, and significant economic costs. During the 3-day period from 15 to 17 April, rainfall in the UAE exceeded 100 mm in the hardest-hit areas, with more than 170% of the typical annual precipitation recorded in just 72 h. The event was associated with exceptionally strong integrated water vapor transport (IVT), driven by a persistent low pressure system and a focused corridor of moisture transport. This environment, combined with favorable dynamical and convective conditions, triggered intense thunderstorms and widespread flooding. This article examines the role of an atmospheric river (AR) in the April 2024 extreme precipitation event, emphasizing the contribution of extreme IVT to preconditioning and amplifying the heavy rainfall. While this event has previously been described primarily in terms of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) and potential vorticity (PV) streamers, here we document and illustrate its close relationship to a record-breaking moisture transport corridor. This AR-based perspective highlights how large-scale moisture-transport frameworks can complement synoptic and mesoscale analyses in understanding extreme rainfall in arid and semiarid regions such as the UAE and the Gulf. The event serves as a stark example of the vulnerabilities faced by arid regions, where atmospheric conditions conducive to extreme flooding may become more frequent in the future.

Massoud, Elias [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000217725361)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Mixed-phase Convective Clouds in the Polar Marine Boundary Layer

This proposal, a collaboration between two universities, firstly aims to describe the high-latitude CAO cloud regime using the array of instruments at the NSA (Barrow, Alaska) and at two mobile ARM sites (MARCUS 2017-18, and COMBLE 2020). These ARM data, and the multi-sensor variables we propose to derive, allow detailed descriptions of mesoscale organization of precipitation, thermodynamic profiles, vertical velocity, cloud depth, and cloud and precipitation properties. These observations are key for our second goal, which is to use output from validated cloud- and eddy-resolving simulations to gain insights into the linkages between microphysical processes, the MBL vertical structure, and the MBL dynamics that control cloud macrostructure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Characterizing Dislocation Defects in Dark Field X-ray Microscopy Images of Bulk Aluminum

Material defects play a large role in material response under shock loading, yet the process of how these defects initiate, propagate, and annihilate is not well understood. Using a newly developed diagnostic, dark field X-ray microscopy (DFXM), we can now visualize the behavior of dislocation defects in materials at the mesoscale under varying conditions. Using data from the European Synchrotron Radiation Facility, we apply a variety of image processing techniques to capture relevant features to locate and characterize size and orientation of dislocation defects in bulk aluminum DFXM images. Beyond simple visualization, this analysis drives statistical characterization of the defects and their dynamic response to further improve the relevant physics models.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling and simulation of vascular tumors embedded in evolving capillary networks

Here in this work, we present a coupled 3D–1D model of solid tumor growth within a dynamically changing vascular network to facilitate realistic simulations of angiogenesis. Additionally, the model includes erosion of the extracellular matrix, interstitial flow, and coupled flow in blood vessels and tissue. We employ continuum mixture theory with stochastic Cahn–Hilliard type phase-field models of tumor growth. The interstitial flow is governed by a mesoscale version of Darcy’s law. The flow in the blood vessels is controlled by Poiseuille flow, and Starling’s law is applied to model the mass transfer in and out of blood vessels. The evolution of the network of blood vessels is orchestrated by the concentration of the tumor angiogenesis factors (TAFs); blood vessels grow towards the increasing TAFs concentrations. This process is not deterministic, allowing random growth of blood vessels and, therefore, due to the coupling of nutrients in tissue and vessels, makes the growth of tumors stochastic. We demonstrate the performance of the model by applying it to a variety of scenarios. Numerical experiments illustrate the flexibility of the model and its ability to generate satellite tumors. Simulations of the effects of angiogenesis on tumor growth are presented as well as sample-independent features of cancer.

3D–1D coupled blood flow models↗

DOE OSTI2025

The NASA ACTIVATE Mission

The NASA Aerosol Cloud Meteorology Interactions over the Western Atlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE) conducted 162 joint flights with two aircraft over the northwest Atlantic to study aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs), which represent the largest uncertainty in estimating total anthropogenic radiative forcing. The combination of a high-flying King Air and low-flying HU-25 Falcon, equipped with remote sensing and in situ instruments, characterized trace gases, aerosol particles, clouds, and meteorological variables with data collected nearly simultaneously below, within, and above marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds. Flights spanning warm and cold seasons across 3 years (2020–22) provided a broad range of conditions associated with aerosol particles, cloud properties (including particle size and phase), and meteorology, ideally suited for robust ACI calculations and assessing how well models simulate a wide range of MBL clouds from stratiform to cumulus. ACTIVATE data suggest that drivers of cloud droplet number concentration N d , including aerosol particles and MBL dynamics, vary between winter and summer months with a stronger potential to convert aerosol particles into cloud droplets in winter. Models of varying complexity not only highlight some skills in simulating winter and summer cloud types but also identify challenges that still need to be addressed such as treatment of turbulence, wet scavenging, and mesoscale organization. Remote sensing advances range from new retrieval methods for N d , cloud phase classification, vertically resolved aerosol and cloud condensation nuclei number concentration, and ocean surface wind speed. This work describes these scientific and technological advances along with efforts in outreach and open data science.

aerosol indirect effect↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multiscale Modeling Framework for Lithium Nucleation in 3D Porous Carbon Anodes

Porous carbon scaffolds offer a promising route for mitigating non-uniform lithium (Li) plating to enhance the safety and longevity of Li metal batteries. However, the influence of microstructural morphology on Li nucleation is not well understood. Here, we present a multiscale modeling framework to investigate how the porous microstructure of carbon materials affects Li nucleation behavior. Ab initio molecular dynamics simulations quantify the nucleation energy barriers of Li on graphene as a function of Li content, surface curvature, and applied potential, providing key parameters for a classical nucleation theory (CNT) model. From macroscale half-cell simulations, we obtained Li concentration and electrical potential profiles to define boundary conditions for mesoscopic simulations. At the mesoscale, three distinct synthetic 3D microstructures with different porosities and characteristic feature sizes are generated to resolve local distributions of Li flux, current density, and mechanical stress. These outputs are integrated into the CNT model to map spatial variation in nucleation rates. Our findings reveal trade-offs between suppressing nucleation rates and achieving spatial uniformity, offering design guidelines for optimizing porous carbon anodes to balance nucleation control and mechanical integrity.

Materials science↗

DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic effects of porosity and chemical kinetics on the shock initiation of an octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine (HMX) based explosive

In this work, we investigate the effects of porosity and chemical reactivity on the shock initiation of an HMX (octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine)-based polymer bonded explosive due to thin flyer impact using two-dimensional mesoscale simulations. Microstructural samples are computationally generated, and the calculated shock response is compared to experiments. The sample dimensions are 0.1×1.05 mm 2 , and each sample accounts for grain scale heterogeneities, including randomized grain morphology and pore spacing. Simulations are performed using the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) arbitrary Lagrangian–Eulerian multi-physics code ALE3D. Chemistry and equation of states are handled with LLNL's thermochemical code Cheetah. We employ a modified Arrhenius-based chemical kinetics model that scales the temperature exponent fitting parameter with flyer shock conditions. This new model is calibrated to the mean response of experimental shock initiation thresholds for three separate Kapton flyer thicknesses. A simplified shock initiation criterion is proposed, which classifies the macroscale initiation response based on cross-sectional temperature profiles of the shocked sample. This criterion is used to further investigate the probabilistic response of the sample to variations in the mean porosity and chemical kinetics rate, and we find an inverse correlation between the shock pressure and the confidence interval of the experimental threshold velocity. Furthermore, the methodology presented in this work for quantifying the probabilistic nature of shock initiation is material agnostic. These mesoscale studies may be used to inform continuum scale models and expedite the development of future, tailored energetic formulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

A modified many-body dissipative particle dynamics model for mesoscopic fluid simulation: methodology, calibration, and application for hydrocarbon and water

The many-body dissipative particle dynamics (mDPD) is a prominent mesoscopic multiphase model for fluid transport in mesoconfinement. However, it has been a long-standing challenge for mDPD (and other multiphase-enabled DPD models) to accurately predict real-fluid static and dynamic properties simultaneously. We have developed a modified mDPD model to overcome the issue and a rigorous calibration approach that uses reference data, including experimental and/or molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to parameterise the modified mDPD for real fluids. We choose heptane as a representative example of hydrocarbon in source rocks to demonstrate the model's capability to accurately predict the equation of state (EOS), free surface tension, diffusivity, and viscosity. Our timing test shows that the modified mDPD is 400–500 times faster than its MD counterpart for simulating bulk heptane in equivalent volumes. To further demonstrate the robustness of the model, we revisited the benchmark problem of mesoscopic modelling of water, in which all the previous works on DPD reported only a limited portion of the water properties. Here, we show that the modified mDPD can provide accurate modelling of water static and dynamic properties and an EOS that matches the experimental data to a large range of confinement pressure.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Radiation driven diffusion in γU-Mo

A monolithic fuel design based on a U-Mo alloy has been selected as the fuel type for conversion of the United States High-Performance Research Reactors (HPRRs). A critical phenomenon of interest with U-Mo monolithic fuel is the large amount of swelling that takes place during operation, particularly at high fission densities. The accurate prediction of fuel evolution under irradiation requires implementation of correct thermodynamic and kinetic properties into mesoscale and continuum level fuel performance modeling codes. One such property where there exists incomplete data is the diffusion of relevant species under irradiation. Fuel performance swelling predictions rely on an accurate representation of diffusion in order to determine the rate of fission gas swelling and the local microstructural evolution. In this work, we present molecular dynamics simulations of the radiation driven diffusion of U, Mo and Xe in U-Mo nuclear fuels. Diffusion coefficients for each species are determined over a range of temperatures and compositions. In this work, updated diffusion coefficients are presented that are applicable under irradiation that incorporate both intrinsic and radiation driven diffusion.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing Mesoscale Cellular Convection in Marine Cold Air Outbreaks With a Machine Learning Approach

Abstract During marine cold‐air outbreaks (MCAOs), when cold polar air moves over warmer ocean, a well‐recognized cloud pattern develops, with open or closed mesoscale cellular convection (MCC) at larger fetch over open water. The Cold‐Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment provided a comprehensive set of ground‐based in situ and remote sensing observations of MCAOs at a coastal location in northern Norway. MCAO periods that unambiguously exhibit open or closed MCC are determined. Individual cells observed with a profiling Ka‐band radar are identified using a watershed segmentation method. Using self‐organizing maps (SOMs), these cells are then objectively classified based on the variability in their vertical structure. The SOM nodes contain some information about the location of the cell transect relative to the center of the MCC. This adds classification noise, requiring numerous cell transects to isolate cell dynamical information. The SOM‐based classification shows that comparatively intense convection occurs only in open MCC. This convection undergoes an apparent lifecycle. Developing cells are associated with stronger updrafts, large spectrum width, larger amounts of liquid water, lower surface precipitation rates, and lower cloud tops than mature and weakening cells. The weakening of these cells is associated with the development of precipitation‐induced cold pools. The SOM classification also reveals less intense convection, with a similar lifecycle. More stratiform vertical cloud structures with weak vertical motions are common during closed MCC periods and are separated into precipitating and non‐precipitating stratiform cores. Convection is observed only occasionally in the closed MCC environment.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2020

Water Structure and Properties at Hydrophilic and Hydrophobic Surfaces

The properties of water on both molecular and macroscopic surfaces critically influence a wide range of physical behaviors, with applications spanning from membrane science to catalysis to protein engineering. Yet, our current understanding of water interfacing molecular and material surfaces is incomplete, in part because measurement of water structure and molecular-scale properties challenges even the most advanced experimental characterization techniques and computational approaches. This review highlights progress in the ongoing development of tools working to answer fundamental questions on the principles that govern the interactions between water and surfaces. One outstanding and critical question is what universal molecular signatures capture the hydrophobicity of different surfaces in an operationally meaningful way, since traditional macroscopic hydrophobicity measures like contact angles fail to capture even basic properties of molecular or extended surfaces with any heterogeneity at the nanometer length scale. Resolving this grand challenge will require close interactions between state-of-the-art experiments, simulations, and theory, spanning research groups and using agreed-upon model systems, to synthesize an integrated knowledge of solvation water structure, dynamics, and thermodynamics.

catalysis (heterogeneous)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multiscale Framework Simulates Utility-Scale Wind Plant in Its Natural Environment. First-ever simulation could lead to a vital understanding of wind plant performance

Wind plant performance depends on local environmental conditions—and understanding those conditions is crucial to research on wind plant dynamics. Factors such as sloping terrain, surface type and cover, atmospheric heating and cooling, and weather events all play a role in determining the winds that turbines convert into power. However, most models used for wind plant design and operation do not sufficiently account for environmental effects. This can limit our understanding of wind plant dynamics and, thus, our ability to design, site, and operate wind plants for maximum power production and reliability. To meet this challenge, Arthur and other LLNL researchers partnered with scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research; the University of California, Berkeley; the University of Colorado, Boulder; and Texas Tech University to develop and demonstrate a novel, mesoscale-tomicroscale wind plant modeling framework.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

SULI Intern Final Report: Computationally Investigating Hydrogen Thermo-Diffusion in Yttrium Hydride Using Multiscale Methods

The renaissance of nuclear energy has arrived, heralding an age of abundant inexpensive clean energy, and renewed space exploration. In nuclear-powered spacecraft and microreactors, safety and size are of utmost importance. Yttrium Hydride (YHx) is being researched for its utility as a neutron moderator in nuclear reactors; the hydrogen in YHx slows down neutrons, enabling a continuous nuclear reaction in the reactor. This has the benefit of allowing reactors to be more safe, compact, and efficient. The goal of this effort is to computationally predict the coefficient of temperature-dependent hydrogen diffusion within YHx, the Soret coefficient. This parameter is essential for determining the safe operating modes of YHx moderators. Zirconium Hydride (ZrHx) is used in the Training, Research, Isotopes, General Atomics (TRIGA) reactor, is the reference material for these calculations. In this work, nanoscale atomic modeling in the Vienna Ab initio Simulation Package (VASP) is combined with the mesoscale finite element phase-field module in the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE); this culminates in a new multiscale computational method to simulate Soret diffusion of hydrogen in YHx. This data is useful for predicting experimental outcomes. This workflow involves convergence testing followed by static, Nudged Elastic Band (NEB), Quasi-Harmonic Approximation (QHA), and Molecular Dynamics (MD) calculations - linked with phase field simulation. NEB simulates hydrogen migration, while QHA and MD predict temperature-dependent properties. The static calculations align with literature, and preliminary NEB and QHA calculations yield accurate results. Once the atomic calculations are complete, we will incorporate Electron Backscatter Diffraction (EBSD) images and VASP-generated parameters into the phase field module to simulate intra- and intergranular transport of hydrogen in ZrHx and YHx. Future research will extend our approach to fuel-moderator materials systems such as Uranium-Yttrium Hydride (U-YHx). This work contributes to the development of advanced nuclear energy solutions for space travel.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of Resolution on Heavy‐Precipitating Storms in Climate Model Hindcasts

The present study investigates the impact of horizontal resolutions on heavy‐precipitating storms using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version2 (E3SMv2) at low (∼100 km, LR) and high (∼25 km, HR) resolutions through short‐range hindcasts. The short‐range hindcast approach ensures a faithful comparison of model resolution in simulating the same storm events under a controlled large‐scale environment. Using a phenomenon‐based framework, we attribute precipitation to specific storm types: tropical cyclones (TCs), extratropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Our findings show that E3SM hindcasts with both HR and LR configurations significantly underestimate storm‐associated precipitation intensity but overestimate precipitation from other sources. Furthermore, both HR and LR hindcasts face significant challenges in accurately simulating extreme precipitation events, particularly over MCS hotspots. Nevertheless, HR simulations capture more detailed and intense precipitation patterns with an improved representation of storm dynamics. HR hindcasts produce 16% more storm precipitation compared to LR. For precipitation extremes, HR simulates a 33% higher 99th percentile precipitation magnitudes compared to LR, and most of the increment comes from these four heavy‐precipitating storm types. The increase in precipitation mainly comes from stratiform precipitation rather than convective precipitation. The improvement in HR simulations varies across different storm types with TC showing the largest improvement. The phenomenon‐based approach provides important insights into precipitation simulations especially for extremes. Our results emphasize the need for further refinement in high‐resolution models to improve the accuracy of precipitation predictions, which is crucial for better understanding and mitigating climate change impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗