optimal initial conditions for coupling ice sheet models to earth system models
Abstract Not Provided
Computer Science↗
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Coupled machine learning–ecosystem ensemble models substantially improve predictions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) fluxes from US croplands
Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is a potent and persistent greenhouse gas, with rising atmospheric concentrations driven in part by inefficient use of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizers in agriculture. Predicting soil N 2 O emissions is challenging due to high spatial and temporal variability arising from complex soil biogeochemical processes. Process-based ecosystem models and standalone machine learning (ML) approaches without extensive site-specific calibration often miss high-emission episodes. Here, we show how an Ensemble Modeling System (EMS) based on outputs from an ensemble of ecosystem models coupled to an ensemble of ML models can improve predictions and understanding of N 2 O fluxes from US cropland. Trained and validated on ~12,000 N 2 O chamber measurements at 17 US Midwest sites (six crops, 35 management practices), the EMS accurately predicted daily fluxes of N 2 O at both training (R 2 = 0.84, RMSE = 16.4 g N ha −1 d −1 ) and held-out testing sites (R 2 = 0.84, RMSE = 6.2 g N ha −1 d −1 ). Analyses identified six dominant N 2 O drivers: soil organic carbon (SOC), NH 4 + , NO 3 - , water-filled pore space, temperature, and aboveground biomass production. Wet, warm soils produced large N 2 O peaks only with sufficient SOC and mineral N; in low-SOC soils, fluxes remained low. Incorporating these drivers into process-based models might significantly improve their predictive capacity. The EMS demonstrates a strong potential to predict N 2 O fluxes at unseen sites, enabling more reliable regional inventories, improved gap-filling where measurements are sparse, and enhanced understanding of mechanisms to advance targeted mitigation strategies in food, feed, and bioenergy crops.
AI↗
Improved Boundary Conditions for Coupled Geospace Models: An Application in Modeling Spacecraft Surface Charging Environment
Abstract Spacecraft surface charging in the inner magnetosphere often occurs in the pre‐midnight to the dawn sector when electron fluxes of tens of keV increase. Inner magnetosphere ring current models can be used to simulate/predict the spacecraft surface charging environment, with their outer boundary conditions specified either based on observations or provided by other models, such as MHD models. In the latter approach, using MHD quantities, the flux spectrum at the outer boundary is commonly assumed to follow a Kappa or Maxwellian distribution function. Such a method however often departs greatly from the realistic spectrum at E < tens of keV, a crucial energy range in the surface charging anomaly. In order to achieve a better representation of the surface charging environment, we propose to combine the MHD‐parameterized flux spectrum with an empirical electron flux model of E < 40 keV to set the electron flux boundary condition. Results indicate that as opposed to the case where the MHD‐parameterized flux distribution is solely used at the model boundary, simulations with the new boundary condition yields a more intense surface charging environment. The integrated electron flux between 10 < E < 50 keV, a measure of the severity of the surface charging environment, is significantly enhanced by 1‐2 orders of magnitude, leading to a much better agreement with Van Allen Probes measurements. This study hence demonstrates a reasonable solution to the setting of outer boundary conditions for inner magnetosphere models and is recommended for coupled geospace circulation models.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Validation of a reduced-order jet model for subsonic and underexpanded hydrogen jets
Much effort has been made to model hydrogen releases from leaks during potential failures of hydrogen storage systems. A reduced-order jet model can be used to quickly characterize these flows, with low computational cost. Notional nozzle models are often used to avoid modeling the complex shock structures produced by the underexpanded jets by determining an “effective” source to produce the observed downstream trends. In our work, the mean hydrogen concentration fields were measured in a series of subsonic and underexpanded jets using a planar laser Rayleigh scattering system. Furthermore, we compared the experimental data to a reduced order jet model for subsonic flows and a notional nozzle model coupled to the jet model for underexpanded jets. The values of some key model parameters were determined by comparisons with the experimental data. Finally, the coupled model was also validated against hydrogen concentrations measurements for 100 and 200 bar hydrogen jets with the predictions agreeing well with data in the literature.
08 HYDROGEN↗
Coupled SAM/Griffin Model of a Reference Fluoride-Salt-Cooled High-Temperature Reactor for Multi-Physics Simulations
A multi-physics coupled simulation model of a reference pebble bed fluoride-salt-cooled high-temperature reactor (PB-FHR) has been developed with SAM and Griffin computer codes for transient safety analysis. The reference problem of a prototypical reactor design serves as the foundation for the U.S. NRC (Nuclear Regulatory Commission) to verify the adequacy of computer codes and evaluation models for specific reactor types. In this work, the previously developed SAM model for PB-FHR primary loop has been updated for the coupled simulation. The updated SAM PB-FHR model includes a 2-D axial symmetric core region and external core components in 0-D/1-D. In addition to the primary loop, a detailed model of the RCCS (reactor cavity cooling system) is added. The 2-D and 1-D domains are tightly coupled using the single-solve approach developed in SAM. In the pebble bed region, the SAM multiscale explicit pebble model is applied to calculate the pebble and TRISO fuel kernel temperatures. The Griffin model used in this work is based on a model developed at Idaho National Laboratory in collaboration with the U.S. NRC. The Griffin neutronics model and SAM thermal hydraulics model is coupled with the Comprehensive Reactor Analysis Bundle (CRAB or alternately BlueCRAB) application. Both steady-state and transient scenarios are simulated to demonstrate the model's suitability for multi-physics simulations of PB-FHR transients.
21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
Orbifolds and Exact Solutions of Strongly-Coupled Matrix Models
Here we find an exact solution to strongly-coupled matrix models with a single-trace monomial potential. Our solution yields closed form expressions for the partition function as well as averages of Schur functions. The results are fully factorized into a product of terms linear in the rank of the matrix and the parameters of the model. We extend our formulas to include both logarthmic and finite-difference deformations, thereby generalizing the celebrated Selberg and Kadell integrals. We conjecture a formula for correlators of two Schur functions in these models, and explain how our results follow from a general orbifold-like procedure that can be applied to any one-matrix model with a single-trace potential.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Bifurcations in the Time-Delayed Kuramoto Model of Coupled Oscillators: Exact Results
In the context of the Kuramoto model of coupled oscillators with distributed natural frequencies interacting through a time-delayed mean-field, we derive as a function of the delay exact results for the stability boundary between the incoherent and the synchronized state and the nature in which the latter bifurcates from the former at the critical point. Our results are based on an unstable manifold expansion in the vicinity of the bifurcation, which we apply to both the kinetic equation for the single-oscillator distribution function in the case of a generic frequency distribution and the corresponding Ott–Antonsen (OA)-reduced dynamics in the special case of a Lorentzian distribution. Besides elucidating the effects of delay on the nature of bifurcation, we show that the approach due to Ott and Antonsen, although an ansatz, gives an amplitude dynamics of the unstable modes close to the bifurcation that remarkably coincides with the one derived from the kinetic equation. Further more, quite interestingly and remarkably, we show that close to the bifurcation, the unstable manifold derived from the kinetic equation has the same form as the OA manifold, implying thereby that the OA-ansatz form follows also as a result of the unstable manifold expansion. In conclusion, we illustrate our results by showing how delay can affect dramatically the bifurcation of a bimodal distribution.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
THE ROLE OF CORE MASS IN CONTROLLING EVAPORATION: THE KEPLER RADIUS DISTRIBUTION AND THE KEPLER-36 DENSITY DICHOTOMY
We use models of coupled thermal evolution and photo-evaporative mass loss to understand the formation and evolution of the Kepler-36 system. We show that the large contrast in mean planetary density observed by Carter et al. can be explained as a natural consequence of photo-evaporation from planets that formed with similar initial compositions. However, rather than being due to differences in XUV irradiation between the planets, we find that this contrast is due to the difference in the masses of the planets' rock/iron cores and the impact that this has on mass-loss evolution. We explore in detail how our coupled models depend on irradiation, mass, age, composition, and the efficiency of mass loss. Based on fits to large numbers of coupled evolution and mass-loss runs, we provide analytic fits to understand threshold XUV fluxes for significant atmospheric loss, as a function of core mass and mass-loss efficiency. Finally we discuss these results in the context of recent studies of the radius distribution of Kepler candidates. Using our parameter study, we make testable predictions for the frequency of sub-Neptune-sized planets. We show that 1.8-4.0 R{sub ⊕} planets should become significantly less common on orbits within 10 days and discuss the possibility of a narrow 'occurrence valley' in the radius-flux distribution. Moreover, we describe how photo-evaporation provides a natural explanation for the recent observations of Ciardi et al. that inner planets are preferentially smaller within the systems.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Numerical case study of the aerosol–cloud interactions in warm boundary layer clouds over the eastern North Atlantic with an interactive chemistry module
The presence of warm boundary layer stratiform clouds over the eastern North Atlantic (ENA) region is commonly influenced by the Azores High, especially during the summer season. To investigate comprehensive aerosol–cloud interactions, this study employs the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a chemistry component (WRF-Chem), incorporating aerosol chemical components that are relevant to the formation of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and accounting for aerosol spatiotemporal variation. This study focuses on aerosol indirect effects, particularly the long-range transport of aerosols, in the ENA region under three different weather regimes: a ridge with a surface high-pressure system, a post-trough with a surface high-pressure system, and a weak trough. The WRF-Chem simulations conducted at a near-large-eddy scale offer valuable insights into the model's performance, especially in terms of its ability to use high spatial resolution to capture mesoscale cloud features across various weather regimes. Our result shows that introducing 5 times more aerosols to either non-precipitating or precipitating clouds significantly increases ambient CCN numbers, resulting in, to varying degrees, higher liquid water path (LWP) values. The substantial aerosol–cloud interaction especially occurs in the precipitating clouds and demonstrates the susceptibility of the LWP to changes in CCN under different regimes. Conversely, thin, non-rain clouds at the edges of a cloud system are prone to evaporation, exhibiting an aerosol drying effect. The aerosols released during this process transition back to the accumulation mode, facilitating future activation. This dynamic behavior is not adequately represented in prescribed-aerosol simulations.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Projected Changes in United States Regional Extreme Heat Days Derived From Bivariate Quantile Mapping of CMIP5 Simulations
Projections of multivariate climate extremes require methodological approaches that can maintain relationships among variables. Here we apply a piecewise multivariate quantile mapping approach to temperature and humidity projections from a subset of models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and analyze the resulting climatology of extreme heat days (EHDs) with explicit consideration of the prevailing humidity. The piecewise multivariate bias correction method shows good fidelity in reproducing the frequency of different types of extreme heat events in the historical period. Projections for U.S. regions and individual cities for both the middle and end of the century are characterized by increases in the frequency of EHDs, and especially those characterized by high humidity. For many regions and individual cities, there is no overlap between the frequency of high-humidity EHDs in general circulation model ensembles from the historical and future periods, indicating that increases in extreme heat are robust. Analysis of 500-mb height, sea-level pressure, and low-level circulation composites for historical and future periods indicates that the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models reproduce basic large-scale circulation features associated with EHDs in U.S. regions and that future changes in extreme heat are related primarily to large-scale warming rather than enhancement of regional circulation anomalies.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Coupled-Channel Models of Direct-Semidirect Capture via Giant-Dipole Resonances
Semidirect capture, a two-step process that excites a giant-dipole resonance followed by its radiative de-excitation, is a dominant process near giant-dipole resonances, that is, for incoming neutron energies within 5 20 MeV. At lower energies such processes may affect neutron capture rates that are relevant to astrophysical nucleosynthesis models. We implement a semidirect capture model in the coupled-channel reaction code Fresco and validate it by comparing the cross section for direct-semidirect capture 208Pb(n,g)209Pb to experimental data. We also investigate the effect of low-energy electric dipole strength in the pygmy resonance. We use a conventional single-particle direct-semidirect capture code Cupido for comparison. Furthermore, we present and discuss our results for direct-semidirect capture reaction 130Sn(n,g)131Sn, the cross section of which is known to have a significant effect on nucleosynthesis models.
Thompson, I J↗
Role of Sea‐Surface Salinity in Simulating Historical Decadal Variations of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a Coupled Climate Model
Abstract Extending climate prediction from seasonal to decadal timescales requires realistic initialization of not only upper ocean heat content but also the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). However, it remains a major challenge to realistically initialize AMOC in a coupled system while also maintaining a balanced atmosphere‐ocean initial state. This study demonstrates the feasibility of generating fully coupled historical states with realistic AMOC variability. Employing a forced ocean—sea‐ice (FOSI) model simulation as the “truth,” we show reproducibility of key features of historical AMOC decadal variability in a fully coupled model by restoring sea‐surface salinity, in addition to sea‐surface temperature restoring widely used in seasonal prediction. The atmospheric state of the restored coupled model solution is much closer to that of the free coupled simulation than to the observations used in FOSI, pointing to potential advantages of using this approach for initializing decadal predictions with reduced ocean initialization shock.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Modeling of Coupled Thermo-Hydro-Mechanical-Chemical Processes for High-Level Radioactive Waste Repositories - 17361
To ensure that multi-barrier systems in high-level radioactive waste (HLW) repositories can efficiently perform their functions and isolate the waste from the biosphere, coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes used for the performance assessment of HLW disposal facilities should be modeled. To evaluate coupled THMC processes, the DECOVALEX project, a unique international research collaboration project initiated in 1992, developed mathematical models and field experiments involving THMC processes in engineered barrier systems and host rocks for HLW disposal. The DECOVALEX project and the current status of coupled THMC model development can provide further insights into the performance assessment of HLW disposal facilities. This study provides information regarding the DECOVALEX project and reviews the development of coupled THMC models. The study results furnish knowledge of coupled THMC processes and techniques for the performance assessment and safety analysis of the final HLW disposal. (authors)
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Quantifying the Effects of Snowpack on Soil Thermal and Carbon Dynamics of the Arctic Terrestrial Ecosystems
Snow insulation effects modify soil and carbon dynamics in northern middle to high latitudes (45°–90°N). This study incorporates these effects by introducing a snow model into an existing soil thermal model in a biogeochemistry modeling framework, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model. The coupled model is used to quantify snow insulation effects on carbon and soil thermal dynamics in 45°–90°N region for the historical period (2003–2010) and the future period (2017–2099) under two climate scenarios. The revised model captures the snow insulation effects and improves the estimates of soil thermal dynamics and the land freeze-thaw as well as terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics. Historical mean cold-season soil temperature at 5 cm depth driven with satellite-based snow data is 6.4°C warmer in comparison with the original model simulation. Frozen area in late spring is estimated to shrink mainly over eastern Siberia, in central to eastern Europe, and along southern Canada in November. During each nongrowing season in the historical period, 0.41 Pg more soil C is released due to warmer soil temperature estimated using the new model. During 2003–2010, the revised model estimates that the region accumulated 0.86 Pg less C due to weaker gross primary production, leading to a regional C loss at 0.19 PgC/year. The revised model projects that the region will lose 38–51% permafrost area by 2100 and continue to be a C source under the low-emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6) but to be gradually transitioning into a weak sink in the latter half of the 21st century under the high-emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5).
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Attributing the Carbon Cycle Impacts of CMIP5 Historical and Future Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1)
Historical global land use and land cover change (LULCC) emissions of 160 PgC represent a third of all human CO 2 emissions from 1850 to 2010. Future land management decisions will have large impacts on the global carbon cycle, with scenarios ranging from continued deforestation and wood harvest to mitigation scenarios that reduce total emissions through afforestation and conversion to bioenergy. Here we present a systematic assessment of Community Earth System Model (CESM1) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) historic and projection simulations, with and without LULCC. For the historical period, CESM produced a Net LULCC flux of 123 PgC to the atmosphere, removing 130 PgC from ecosystems while increasing wood product pools by 7 PgC. Historical LULCC fluxes were equally divided between conversion and wood harvest fluxes. For the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 afforestation scenario CESM produced a Net LULCC flux of 53 PgC to the atmosphere, removing 58 PgC out of the ecosystem and increasing wood product pools of 5 PgC. The afforestation offsets the Direct LULCC flux of 153 PgC with a negative Indirect LULCC flux of 94 PgC. For the RCP 8.5 high LULCC scenario, CESM produced a Net LULCC flux of 211 PgC, removing 227 PgC from ecosystems and increasing wood product pools of 15 PgC. The LULCC of the future RCP scenarios was dominated by wood harvest fluxes, which is a process that was not included in many of the CMIP5 models. The analysis framework also allowed the attribution of Indirect and Prior LULCC fluxes that offset the Direct LULCC fluxes in many cases.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Urbanization effect on winter haze in the Yangtze River Delta Region of China
The impact of urbanization-induced land-cover change and increase in anthropogenic emissions on the air quality of the megacity cluster of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) is investigated using the WRF-Chem model coupled with an Urban Canopy Model at cloud-resolving resolution. The urban land-cover effect results in considerable reduction of near-surface aerosol concentrations over urban regions and an increase in particle concentrations at higher altitudes over the surrounding rural areas. The UHI effect increases the lower atmospheric instability and vertical velocity, thus increasing the planetary boundary layer height and ventilation over the urban area, favoring the dispersion of pollutants from urbanized areas to their immediate vicinities. However, the urbanization-induced increases in aerosol emissions outweigh that of land-cover change, resulting in a net increase in surface particle concentrations by up to 50 µg m -3 and the occurrence of winter haze by more than 10 d season-1 in the YRD region.
urbanization-induced land-cover change, Urban Cano↗
Flood Inundation Generation Mechanisms and Their Changes in 1953-2004 in Global Major River Basins
Despite the serious threats posed by floods, the driving mechanisms of floods are still not well understood. Here, we apply a physically-based inundation model coupled with a river routing model (Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport, MOSART) within the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) framework to investigate flood inundation dynamics. After calibration using observed streamflow and satellite-derived flood extent, the model is used to simulate global flood inundation from 1953 to 2004. The mean date and seasonality of annual maximum flood, defined based on flood extent, exhibit significant regional differences across 16 major basins. Generally, soil moisture and monthly maximum daily rainfall (MMR) are the dominant drivers of flood in tropical basins while monthly maximum daily snowmelt (MMS) is the dominant driver in high latitude basins. From 1953-1982 to 1975-2004, significant changes in flood generation mechanisms are found in some basins such as Amazon, Lena, Yenisey, and Kolyma. Analysis of the rainfall seasonality and water balance at grid scale reveals a stronger rainfall seasonality in the Amazon during the later period that increases the synchrony between extreme rainfall and wet soil. With high antecedent soil moisture coinciding with rainfall, MMR contributes more to flood in the later period. Fewer extreme rainfall events and increasing soil moisture reduced the contribution of MMR and increased the role of MMS in floods in the Lena and Yenisey basins, respectively. Lastly, increased soil moisture and frequency of large MMS reduced the contribution of the latter to floods in the Kolyma basin.
Mao, Yuna↗
Precipitation Probability and Its Future Changes From a Global Cloud-Resolving Model and CMIP6 Simulations
This study investigates precipitation probability and its future changes using simulations from the Non-hydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM), a global cloud-resolving model, and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. For the precipitation probability comparison between models and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) during 1998–2008, the difference is greatly reduced by regridding to a common coarser resolution, but the difference signs largely remain. Both NICAM and CMIP6 model ensemble mean show less global-mean nonprecipitation fractions than observations, but NICAM agrees better with observations. For global-mean light precipitation probability, NICAM (CMIP6 model ensemble mean) is smaller (larger) than TRMM. NICAM shows higher heavy precipitation probability than TRMM in native resolutions, but it is close to TRMM and falls in the CMIP6 model range after regridding. For the precipitation probability changes from 1979–2008 to 2075–2104, NICAM predicts an increase in nonprecipitation and extreme heavy (>100 mm/day) precipitation probability but a slight decrease in the probability for precipitation <100 mm/day. After regridding to 2.5°, the precipitation intensity where the probability starts to increase becomes ~20 mm/day and the relative increases in nonprecipitation and heavy precipitation probability become much larger. Future heavy precipitation probability relative increases from CMIP6 models are much larger than NICAM at their native resolutions, but NICAM falls in the CMIP6 model range after regridding, indicating robust future increase (decrease) in heavy (light) precipitation probability regardless of underlying convection treatments. Discrepancy, however, exists in the projected nonprecipitation fraction changes: NICAM shows that nonprecipitation probability will increase over most of low and middle latitudes where CMIP6 models show less increases and even decreases.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗