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Investigation of Main Bearing Fatigue Estimate Sensitivity to Synthetic Turbulence Models Using a Novel Drivetrain Model Implemented in OpenFAST
ABSTRACT A coupled medium‐fidelity drivetrain model is developed and implemented in OpenFAST for a 10‐MW land‐based reference turbine. The implementation is verified against a fully coupled multibody wind turbine model, including a detailed drivetrain. The new model can simultaneously and accurately estimate main bearing loads and represent elastic bending of the drivetrain. It has low computational cost and is useful for early design phases, sensitivity analyses and complex systems like wind farms (where computational expense must be expended elsewhere). Here, the model is implemented for a monopile offshore wind turbine and used to investigate the sensitivity of main bearing basic rating life to different synthetic turbulence models. Large‐eddy simulations (LES) targeting stable, neutral, and unstable atmospheric conditions at below‐, near‐ and above‐rated wind speeds are used as a reference. The turbulence models recommended by the International Electrotechnical Commission, the Mann spectral tensor model, and the Kaimal spectral model with exponential coherence are fitted to the LES data. Additionally, a constrained turbulence generator, PyConTurb (short for Python Constrained Turbulence ), based on LES data, is applied in the aero‐hydro‐servo‐elastic simulations. Taking PyConTurb as the baseline, the Kaimal model significantly underestimates fatigue of the downwind main bearing, with between 10% and 40% less damage. The Mann model also underestimates the downwind main bearing fatigue by up to 30%. The upwind main bearing damage is driven by mean loads, and differences between models are less significant, although the trends are similar. Reasons for these discrepancies are investigated and attributed to differences in spatial and temporal variations among the turbulence models.
Looking under the hood: A comparison of techno-economic assumptions across national and global integrated assessment models
Integrated assessment models are extensively used in the analysis of climate change mitigation and are informing national decision makers as well as contribute to international assessments such as those of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This paper conducts a comprehensive review of techno-economic assumptions in the electricity sector among sixteen different global and national integrated assessment models. Particular focus is given to six major economies in the world: Brazil, China, the EU, India, Japan and the US. The comparison reveals that techno-economic characteristics are quite different across integrated assessment models, both for the base year and future years. It is, however, important to recognize that techno-economic assessments from the literature exhibit an equally large range of parameters as the integrated assessment models reviewed. Beyond numerical differences, the representation of technologies also differs among models which needs to be taken into account when comparing numerical parameters. While desirable from a first principles perspective and often called for, it seems difficult to fully harmonize techno-economic parameters across a broader range of models due to structural differences in the representation of technology. Therefore, in the future making techno-economic parameters available together with of the technology representation as well as the exact definitions of the parameters should become the standard approach as it allows an open discussion of appropriate assumptions.
A Process Model for ITCZ Narrowing under Warming Highlights Clear-Sky Water Vapor Feedbacks and Gross Moist Stability Changes in AMIP Models
Tropical areas with mean upward motion—and as such the zonal-mean intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ)—are projected to contract under global warming. To understand this process, a simple model based on dry static energy and moisture equations is introduced for zonally symmetric overturning driven by sea surface temperature (SST). Processes governing ascent area fraction and zonal mean precipitation are examined for insight into Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations. Bulk parameters governing radiative feedbacks and moist static energy transport in the simple model are estimated from the AMIP ensemble. Uniform warming in the simple model produces ascent area contraction and precipitation intensification—similar to observations and climate models. Contributing effects include stronger water vapor radiative feedbacks, weaker cloud-radiative feedbacks, stronger convection-circulation feedbacks, and greater poleward moisture export. The simple model identifies parameters consequential for the inter-AMIP-model spread; an ensemble generated by perturbing parameters governing shortwave water vapor feedbacks and gross moist stability changes under warming tracks inter-AMIP-model variations with a correlation coefficient ~0.46. Here, the simple model also predicts the multimodel mean changes in tropical ascent area and precipitation with reasonable accuracy. Furthermore, the simple model reproduces relationships among ascent area precipitation, ascent strength, and ascent area fraction observed in AMIP models. A substantial portion of the inter-AMIP-model spread is traced to the spread in how moist static energy and vertical velocity profiles change under warming, which in turn impact the gross moist stability in deep convective regions—highlighting the need for observational constraints on these quantities.
Chemical Modeling of the Reactivity of Short-Lived Greenhouse Gases: A Model Inter-Comparison Prescribing a Well-Measured, Remote Troposphere
We develop a new protocol for merging in situ measurements with 3-D model simulations of atmospheric chemistry with the goal of integrating over the data to identify the most reactive air parcels in terms of tropospheric production and loss of the greenhouse gases ozone and methane. Presupposing that we can accurately measure atmospheric composition, we examine whether models constrained by such measurements agree on the chemical budgets for ozone and methane. In applying our technique to a synthetic data stream of 14,880 parcels along 180W, we are able to isolate the performance of the photochemical modules operating within their global chemistry-climate and chemistry-transport models, removing the effects of modules controlling tracer transport, emissions, and scavenging. Differences in reactivity across models are driven only by the chemical mechanism and the diurnal cycle of photolysis rates, which are driven in turn by temperature, water vapor, solar zenith angle, clouds, and possibly aerosols and overhead ozone, which are calculated in each model. We evaluate six global models and identify their differences and similarities in simulating the chemistry through a range of innovative diagnostics. All models agree that the more highly reactive parcels dominate the chemistry (e.g., the hottest 10% of parcels control 25-30% of the total reactivities), but do not fully agree on which parcels comprise the top 10%. Distinct differences in specific features occur, including the regions of maximum ozone production and methane loss, as well as in the relationship between photolysis and these reactivities. Unique, possibly aberrant, features are identified for each model, providing a benchmark for photochemical module development. Among the 6 models tested here, 3 are almost indistinguishable based on the inherent variability caused by clouds, and thus we identify 4, effectively distinct, chemical models. Based on this work, we suggest that water vapor differences in model simulations of past and future atmospheres may be a cause of the different evolution of tropospheric O3 and CH4, and lead to different chemistry-climate feedbacks across the models.
Aeroelastic Modeling and CFD Simulation of Wind-Tunnel Scale Aspect Ratio 13.5 Common Research Model
This paper presents an aeroelastic modeling and simulation study of an aspect ratio 13.5 wind-tunnel scale Common Research Model (CRM) with distributed flaps. A vortex-lattice VSPAERO model of the CRM model is developed. A transonic small disturbance/integral boundary layer correction method is implemented in the VSPAERO model to account for the transonic and viscous flow effects. The structural deformation of the CRM model is calculated using a NASTRAN equivalent beam model. The VSPAERO model is coupled to the NASTRAN equivalent beam model to provide a rapid aero-structural analysis. A validation of the VSPAERO aeroelastic model is conducted by comparing the results to FUN3D CFD aeroelastic simulation results. An aerodynamic database is generated using the developed VSPAERO aeroelastic model for the real-time drag optimization and maneuver load alleviation study of the wind-tunnel scale CRM model.
Machine learning-enhanced hybrid modeling approach for better identification of a building thermal network model and improved prediction
The gray-box modeling approach, which uses a semi-physical thermal network model, has been widely used in building prediction applications, such as model predictive control (MPC). However, unmeasured disturbances, such as occupants, lighting, and in/exfiltration loads, make it challenging to apply this approach to practical buildings. In this word, we propose a hybrid modeling approach that integrates the gray-box model with a model for unmeasured disturbance. After reviewing several system identification approaches, we systematically designed the unmeasured disturbance model with a model selection process based on statistical tests to make it robust. We generated data based on the building model calibrated by real operational data and then trained the hybrid model for two different weather conditions. The hybrid model approach demonstrates an RMSE reduction of approximately 0.2–0.9 °C and 0.3–2 °C on 1-day ahead temperature prediction compared to the Conventional approach for mild (Berkeley, CA) and cold (Chicago, IL) climates, respectively. In addition, this approach was applied to experimental data obtained from the laboratory building to be used for the MPC application, showing superior prediction performances.
Model America: Data and Models for every U.S. Building
The 5-year goal of the “Model America” concept was to generate a model of every building in the United States. This data repository delivers on that goal with "Model America v1". Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has developed the Automatic Building Energy Modeling (AutoBEM) software suite to process multiple types of data, extract building-specific descriptors, generate building energy models, and simulate them on High Performance Computing (HPC) resources. For more information, see AutoBEM-related publications (bit.ly/AutoBEM). There were 125,715,609 buildings detected in the United States. Of this number, 122,146,671 (97.2%) buildings resulted in a successful generation and simulation of a building energy model. This dataset includes the full 125 million buildings. Future updates may include additional buildings, data improvements, or other algorithmic model enhancements in "Model America v2". This dataset contains OSM and IDF zip files for every U.S. county. Each zip file contains the generated buildings from that county. The .csv input data contains the following data fields: 1. ID - the Unique Building Identifier (UBID), generated using the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) BuildingID framework 2. Centroid - building center location in latitude/longitude (from Footprint2D) 3. Footprint2D - building polygon of 2D footprint (lat1/lon1_lat2/lon2_...) 4. State_abbr - state name 5. Area - estimate of total conditioned floor area (ft2) 6. Area2D - footprint area (ft2) 7. Height - building height (ft) 8. NumFloors - number of floors (above-grade) 9. WWR_surfaces - percent of each facade (pair of points from Footprint2D) covered by fenestration/windows (average 14.5% for residential, 40% for commercial buildings) 10. CZ - ASHRAE Climate Zone designation 11. BuildingType - DOE prototype building designation (IECC=residential) as implemented by OpenStudio-standards 12. Standard - building vintage This data is made free and openly available in hopes of stimulating any simulation-informed use case. Data is provided as-is with no warranties, express or implied, regarding fitness for a particular purpose. We wish to thank our sponsors which include Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD), U.S. Dept. of Energy’s (DOE) Building Technologies Office (BTO), Office of Electricity (OE), Biological and Environmental Research (BER), and National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). Update (September 23, 2025): We corrected the ID field in all state-level.csv input files to ensure one-to-one consistency with the corresponding .osm and .idf output files. The schema and file structure are unchanged; only the values in the ID column were modified. No files were added or removed, and the .zip bundles (containing .osm / .idf) are unchanged. The corrected .csv inputs were re-extracted in March 2025 from the original data generated ~ 2021 (Theta supercomputer runs), and published here to align input IDs with model outputs. Update (September 6, 2026): The Model America dataset was updated to replace the previous building ID field with the Unique Building Identifier (UBID), using the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) BuildingID framework. UBIDs provide standardized, location-based identifiers for individual building footprints and improve interoperability with other building and geospatial datasets. The data files containing the previous building identifiers were updated to include UBIDs. This update standardizes building identification; the underlying Model America building characteristics and energy simulation results were not recomputed as part of this update.
Concurrent Inter-Model Spread of Boreal Winter Westerly Jet Meridional Positions Between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres in CMIP6 Models
Here, this study investigates the inter-model spread of climatological extratropical westerly jets in boreal winter, using the historical simulation of 52 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models from 1851 to 2014. The results show that there is a substantial spread in the latitude of the upper-tropospheric westerly jet across models, characterised by large inter-model standard deviations to both the poleward and equatorward sides of the jet axis, although the multi-model ensemble mean (MME) performs well in simulating meridional position of westerly jets. Furthermore, we detect the consistency of inter-model jet position spread between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, based on the inter-model empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition and correlation of regional-averaged zonal winds. Specifically, the models that simulate the westerly jets poleward/equatorward relative to the MME position in one hemisphere also tend to simulate the jets poleward/equatorward in the other hemisphere. Accordingly, we define a global jet spread index to depict the concurrence of jet shift in the two hemispheres. The results of inter-model regression analyses based on this index indicate that the models positioning the jets poleward than the MME tend to simulate a wider Hadley Cell, a poleward-shifted Ferrel Cell in the Southern Hemisphere, enhanced precipitation in the subtropics and suppressed precipitation in the tropics, and warmer sea surface temperatures in the subtropics and mid-latitudes. The present results suggest that improving the simulation of jet positions in climate models requires a comprehensive consideration of thermal states in the tropics and subtropics/mid latitudes.
High-Performance Computing for Earth System Modeling
High-performance computing (HPC) plays an important role during the development of Earth system models. This chapter reviews HPC efforts related to Earth system models, including community Earth system models and energy exascale Earth system models. Specifically, this chapter evaluates computational and software design issues, analyzes several current HPC-related model developments, and provides an outlook for some promising areas within Earth system modeling in the era of exascale computing.
Implementation of an extensible property modeling framework in ESPEI with applications to molar volume and elastic stiffness models
Property models are becoming more widely adopted by commercial Calphad databases, but they are not nearly as common in non-commercial or traditional academic Calphad databases. A primary driver is that user-friendly Calphad modeling tools that support property models are not widely available. Here we present new property modeling capabilities that have been implemented in ESPEI (the Extensible, Self-optimizing Phase Equilibrium Infrastructure). These capabilities include both generating property model parameters from data and improvements to the algorithmic selection of the most appropriate model from a series of candidates. Additionally, two illustrative examples are given that use ESPEI to fit different property models. First, we generate molar volume model parameters for Group IV, V, and VI refractory BCC alloys based on the model by Lu et al. (2005). Second, we demonstrate the extensibility of ESPEI’s property modeling capabilities by implementing a custom PyCalphad model for BCC elastic stiffness parameters to generate and compare parameters to the ones assessed by Marker et al. (2018) using the same data. Property models generated by ESPEI can be used in PyCalphad or further optimized with uncertainty quantification using ESPEI.
A two-set order parameters phase-field modeling of crack deflection/penetration in a heterogeneous microstructure
Modeling of crack deflection/penetration or manifested as intergranular/transgranular fracture in polycrystals has long been a challenge in both fracture mechanics and materials science. A phase-field model formulated with two-set order parameters describing the crack field and the microstructure field respectively, is herein established to investigate the competition between crack penetration and deflection at an interface. The advantages of the proposed model are three-fold: (1) the fracture toughness of grain boundaries and/or interfaces, besides single crystal properties (e.g., Young’s modulus, Poisson ratio, and fracture toughness), can be automatically incorporated, (2) cohesive interfaces are treated in one phase-field framework in comparison with the integrated phase-field and cohesive zone model in which cohesive elements have to be manually placed at the interface, and (3) two-set order parameters enable to describe the concurrent crack propagation and microstructure evolution. The proposed model is validated by comparing the simulated critical deflection angles with the results from theoretical analysis of the linear elastic fracture mechanics and the experiments. The model is then applied to a heterogeneous Silicon Nitride polycrystal to determine the effect of interface fracture toughness on the intergranular/transgranular fracture transition and the effective toughness of the materials.
An experimental and chemical kinetic modeling study of 4-butoxyheptane combustion
Here, the combustion kinetics of a novel oxygenated bioblendstock for diesel, 4-butoxyheptane (4-BH), was investigated experimentally using a flow reactor and a heated, high-pressure shock tube. The flow reactor experiments employed oxygen as the oxidizer and helium as the diluent with oxidation conducted at atmospheric pressure and 10 bar for temperatures from 400 to 1000 K at 20-K intervals. The fuel, oxidizer, and diluent flow rates were varied at different temperatures to maintain a constant initial fuel mole fraction of 1000 ppm, with stoichiometric equivalence ratio, and a residence time of 2.0 s. The reacted gas was fed to two separate GC systems that could qualitatively and quantitatively detect product species. Additionally, real fuel-air ignition delay time (IDT) data were collected using a heated, high-pressure shock-tube facility. Fuel lean (φ = 0.5) and stoichiometric (φ = 1.0) mixtures were investigated at 10 atm as well as at 30 atm for the fuel lean case for temperatures between 847 and 1259 K. A detailed chemical kinetics mechanism was developed to model the product distribution from the flow reactor and IDTs from the shock tube. The proposed model was able to predict the double NTC behavior in flow reactor experiments reasonably well. Model predictions at low temperatures were observed to be highly sensitive to the rate constants of ketohydroperoxide (KHP) decomposition in the case of the OOH group in α position which were modeled based on existing literature studies on ethers. It was noted that in the absence of theoretical or experimental studies, the rate constants for KHP decomposition used in the literature were empirically set. Additional studies are required to address the gap in model prediction obtained in this study and to reduce the uncertainty in kinetics models for ether oxidation. Predicted product concentrations and IDTs showed some quantitative agreement with experimental data, but the overall reactivity of the IDTs is underpredicted. Additionally, significant deviation is observed for the IDT results at 10 atm for the stoichiometric case with minor deviations for the other cases. The reaction pathways to the missing products were then further analyzed theoretically through quantum-mechanical calculations.
Evaluation of Clouds in Version 1 of E3SM Atmosphere Model with Satellite and Simulators
This study systematically evaluates clouds simulated by the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model version one (EAMv1) against satellite and ground-based cloud observations. Both low (1°) and high (0.25°) resolution EAMv1 configurations generally underestimate clouds in low and midlatitutes and overestimate clouds in the Arctic although the error is smaller in the high-resolution model. The underestimate of clouds is due to the underestimate of optically thin to intermediate clouds. EAMv1 overestimates the optically intermediate to thick clouds. Other model errors include the largely under-predicted stratocumulus along the coasts and high clouds over the tropical deep convection regions. The underestimate of thin clouds results in too much LW radiation being emitted to space and too little SW radiation being reflected back to space while the overestimate of optically intermediate and thick clouds leads to too little LW radiation being emitted to space and too much SW radiation being reflected back to space. EAMv1 shows better skill in reproducing the observed distribution of clouds and their properties and has smaller radiatively relevant errors in the distribution of clouds than most of the CFMIP2 models. It produces more supercooled liquid cloud fraction than CAM5 and most CMIP5 models owing to a new ice nucleation scheme and a reduction of ice deposition growth rate. It simulates the diurnal variation of clouds during the summer season at SGP qualitatively well, with both the evolution of shallow clouds and the nocturnal peak in high clouds well captured, however, it largely overestimates the observed magnitude.
Automated ICRF heating surrogate modeling via machine learning
This work introduces automated machine learning workflows that address critical bottlenecks in surrogate model development for Ion Cyclotron Range of Frequencies (ICRF) heating applications. The automated framework includes data analysis tools that transform raw datasets into actionable insights in seconds, replacing weeks of manual exploratory effort and ensuring consistent, reproducible dataset characterization. By integrating advanced hyperparameter optimization (HPO) methods including Bayesian optimization via BoTorch and Tree-structured Parzen Estimators (TPE), the framework significantly reduces model development time from weeks to hours, decreasing computational cost and required expertise, while enabling high-accuracy surrogate models. Compared to traditional hyperparameter scanning (HPS) techniques such as methodical, randomized, and grid searches, HPO methods achieve superior convergence and predictive performance, even when compared to already well-tuned reference models. On NSTX High Harmonic Fast Wave (HHFW) heating datasets, both Random Forest Regressor (RFR) and neural network surrogates demonstrate improved accuracy, achieving R 2 values beyond 0.97 and 0.98, respectively. The results show that while HPO gains are modest for robust architectures like RFR, they become essential for more sensitive models such as neural networks, highlighting the trade-offs across optimization strategies. Through automated workflows that eliminate manual hyperparameter tuning and require minimal ML expertise, this work enables widespread adoption of high-fidelity surrogate models across the fusion community for real-time plasma control, uncertainty quantification, rapid experimental scenario development, and integrated system optimization.
Model fusion with physics-guided machine learning: Projection-based reduced-order modeling
The unprecedented amount of data generated from experiments, field observations, and large-scale numerical simulations at a wide range of spatiotemporal scales has enabled the rapid advancement of data-driven and especially deep learning models in the field of fluid mechanics. Although these methods are proven successful for many applications, there is a grand challenge of improving their generalizability. This is particularly essential when data-driven models are employed within outer-loop applications like optimization. In this work, we put forth a physics-guided machine learning (PGML) framework that leverages the interpretable physics-based model with a deep learning model. Leveraging a concatenated neural network design from multi-modal data sources, the PGML framework is capable of enhancing the generalizability of data-driven models and effectively protects against or inform about the inaccurate predictions resulting from extrapolation. We apply the PGML framework as a novel model fusion approach combining the physics-based Galerkin projection model and long- to short-term memory (LSTM) network for parametric model order reduction of fluid flows. We demonstrate the improved generalizability of the PGML framework against a purely data-driven approach through the injection of physics features into intermediate LSTM layers. Our quantitative analysis shows that the overall model uncertainty can be reduced through the PGML approach, especially for test data coming from a distribution different than the training data. Moreover, we demonstrate that our approach can be used as an inverse diagnostic tool providing a confidence score associated with models and observations. The proposed framework also allows for multi-fidelity computing by making use of low-fidelity models in the online deployment of quantified data-driven models.
Interpreting Write Performance of Supercomputer I/O Systems with Regression Models
This work seeks to advance the state of the art in HPC I/O performance analysis and interpretation. In particular, we demonstrate effective techniques to: (1) model output performance in the presence of I/O interference from production loads; (2) build features from write patterns and key parameters of the system architecture and configurations; (3) employ suitable machine learning algorithms to improve model accuracy. We train models with five popular regression algorithms and conduct experiments on two distinct production HPC platforms. We find that the lasso and random forest models predict output performance with high accuracy on both of the target systems. We also explore use of the models to guide adaptation in I/O middleware systems, and show potential for improvements of at least 15% from model-guided adaptation on 70% of samples, and improvements up to 10× on some samples for both of the target systems.
Modeling batch melting: Roles of heat transfer and reaction kinetics
Development of mathematical models of heat and mass transfer in glass-melting furnaces began in the 1970s and progressed rapidly with advances in sophisticated experimental/numerical techniques and increasing computational power. Today, practically all newly built or rebuilt furnaces are optimized with these models to meet stringent quality requirements, reduce the unit costs of manufacturing, or control emissions. One remaining hurdle is to model the batch-to-glass conversion accurately enough to reliably assess the glass production rate. This article summarizes two key aspects of the batch-conversion modeling—the heat transfer and the kinetics of conversion—and reviews the current state-of-the-art approaches to simulating them. We critically examine the advantages of the commonly used heat transfer approach, but also explain that its predictive capabilities are significantly restricted by the dependence of batch thermal properties on the time-temperature history. We argue that kinetic approaches to the batch-conversion modeling would offer a significant improvement when coupled with the heat transfer approach. Finally, we summarize key areas requiring further research on the way toward a realistic model of the batch blanket.