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NASA NTRS2012

Arctic Ocean Freshwater: How Robust are Model Simulations

The Arctic freshwater (FW) has been the focus of many modeling studies, due to the potential impact of Arctic FW on the deep water formation in the North Atlantic. A comparison of the hindcasts from ten ocean-sea ice models shows that the simulation of the Arctic FW budget is quite different in the investigated models. While they agree on the general sink and source terms of the Arctic FW budget, the long-term means as well as the variability of the FW export vary among models. The best model-to-model agreement is found for the interannual and seasonal variability of the solid FW export and the solid FW storage, which also agree well with observations. For the interannual and seasonal variability of the liquid FW export, the agreement among models is better for the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) than for Fram Strait. The reason for this is that models are more consistent in simulating volume flux anomalies than salinity anomalies and volume-flux anomalies dominate the liquid FW export variability in the CAA but not in Fram Strait. The seasonal cycle of the liquid FW export generally shows a better agreement among models than the interannual variability, and compared to observations the models capture the seasonality of the liquid FW export rather well. In order to improve future simulations of the Arctic FW budget, the simulation of the salinity field needs to be improved, so that model results on the variability of the liquid FW export and storage become more robust.

Jahn, A.↗

NASA NTRS2024

General Circulation Models Simulate Negative Liquid Water Path–Droplet Number Correlations, but Anthropogenic Aerosols Still Increase Simulated Liquid Water Path

General circulation models' (GCMs) estimates of the liquid water path adjustment to anthropogenic aerosol emissions differ in sign from other lines of evidence. This reduces confidence in estimates of the effective radiative forcing of the climate by aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFaci). The discrepancy is thought to stem in part from GCMs' inability to represent the turbulence–microphysics interactions in cloud-top entrainment, a mechanism that leads to a reduction in liquid water in response to an anthropogenic increase in aerosols. In the real atmosphere, enhanced cloud-top entrainment is thought to be the dominant adjustment mechanism for liquid water path, weakening the overall ERFaci. We show that the latest generation of GCMs includes models that produce a negative correlation between the present-day cloud droplet number and liquid water path, a key piece of observational evidence supporting liquid water path reduction by anthropogenic aerosols and one that earlier-generation GCMs could not reproduce. However, even in GCMs with this negative correlation, the increase in anthropogenic aerosols from preindustrial to present-day values still leads to an increase in the simulated liquid water path due to the parameterized precipitation suppression mechanism. This adds to the evidence that correlations in the present-day climate are not necessarily causal. We investigate sources of confounding to explain the noncausal correlation between liquid water path and droplet number. These results are a reminder that assessments of climate parameters based on multiple lines of evidence must carefully consider the complementary strengths of different lines when the lines disagree.

General circulation models↗

DOE OSTI2024

General circulation models simulate negative liquid water path–droplet number correlations, but anthropogenic aerosols still increase simulated liquid water path

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1991

Interrelation of soft and hard X-ray emissions during solar flares. II - Simulation model

Two-dimensional electrostatic particle simulations are presented which incorporate the effect of quasi-static electric fields on particle dynamics as well as effects associated with wave-particle interactions induced by the accelerated particles. The properties of the soft and hard X-ray and microwave emissions from such systems are examined. In particular, it is shown that acceleration by quasi-static electric fields and heating via wave-particle interactions produces electron distributions with a broken-power law, similar to those inferred from hard X-ray spectra. Also, heating of the ambient plasma gives rise to a region of hot plasma propagating down to the chromosphere at about the ion sound speed.

Winglee, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS2020

The GGCMI Phase 2 Experiment: Global Gridded Crop Model Simulations Under Uniform Changes in CO2, Temperature, Water, and Nitrogen Levels (Protocol Version 1.0)

Concerns about food security under climate change motivate efforts to better understand future changes in crop yields. Process-based crop models, which represent plant physiological and soil processes, are necessary tools for this purpose since they allow representing future climate and management conditions not sampled in the historical record and new locations to which cultivation may shift. However, process-based crop models differ in many critical details, and their responses to different interacting factors remain only poorly understood. The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment, an activity of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), is designed to provide a systematic parameter sweep focused on climate change factors and their interaction with overall soil fertility, to allow both evaluating model behavior and emulating model responses in impact assessment tools. In this paper we describe the GGCMI Phase 2 experimental protocol and its simulation data archive. A total of 12 crop models simulate five crops with systematic uniform perturbations of historical climate, varying CO2, temperature, water supply, and applied nitrogen (“CTWN”) for rainfed and irrigated agriculture, and a second set of simulations represents a type of adaptation by allowing the adjustment of growing season length. We present some crop yield results to illustrate general characteristics of the simulations and potential uses of the GGCMI Phase 2 archive. For example, in cases without adaptation, modeled yields show robust decreases to warmer temperatures in almost all regions, with a nonlinear dependence that means yields in warmer baseline locations have greater temperature sensitivity. Inter-model uncertainty is qualitatively similar across all the four input dimensions but is largest in high-latitude regions where crops may be grown in the future.

GGCMI↗

NASA NTRS2022

L-Band Microwave Satellite Data and Model Simulations Over the Dry Chaco to Estimate Soil Moisture, Soil Temperature, Vegetation and Soil Salinity

The Dry Chaco in South America is a semi-arid ecoregion prone to dryland salinization. In this region, we investigated coarse-scale surface soil moisture (SM), soil temperature, soil salinity and vegetation, using L-band microwave brightness temperature (TB) observations and retrievals from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite missions, Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) simulations, and in situ measurements within 26 sampled satellite pixels. Across these 26 sampled pixels, the satellite-based SM outperformed CLSM SM compared to field data, and forward L-band TB simulations derived from in situ SM and temperature performed better than those derived from CLSM estimates relative to SMOS TB observations. The surface salinity for the sampled pixels was on average only 4 mg/g and only locally influenced the TB simulations, when including salinity in the dielectric mixing model of the forward radiative transfer model (RTM) simulations. To explore the potential of retrieving salinity together with other RTM parameters to optimize TB simulations over the entire Dry Chaco, the RTM was inverted using 10 years of multi-angular SMOS TB data and constraints of CLSM SM and temperature. However, the latter modeled SM was not sufficiently accurate and factors such as open surface water were missing in the background constraints, so that the salinity retrievals effectively represented a bulk correction of the dielectric constant, rather than salinity per se. However, the retrieval of vegetation, scattering albedo and surface roughness resulted in realistic values.

L-Band↗

DOE OSTI2024

Responses of summer mesoscale convective systems to irrigation over the North China Plain based on convection-permitting model simulations

Extensive irrigation activities in the North China Plain (NCP) significantly influence regional weather and climate. However, previous studies focusing on the NCP were primarily based on coarse-resolution models, which are unable to explicitly resolve convection systems, causing large uncertainty in precipitation simulations. In this study, a convection-permitting model coupled with a dynamic irrigation scheme is utilized to investigate the impacts of irrigation on summertime mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over the NCP. Sensitivity experiments with irrigation off and on are conducted for 5 summers and an MCS identification and tracking algorithm is applied to both satellite observations and model simulations. We find that incorporating irrigation in the model increases MCS precipitation, which agrees more with observations. The probability distributions of MCS lifetime, area, propagation speed, and intensity are all better simulated with irrigation. Irrigation increases the occurrence frequency of MCSs throughout the entire day. The nighttime increase is partly because of more frequent local initiation of MCS developed from isolated deep convection, while the daytime increase is mainly attributed to the changes in MCSs initiating elsewhere and then propagating to the NCP. On average, irrigation induces additional moisture that is more thermodynamically favorable for precipitation, but this effect is partially offset by the weakened ascending air motion primarily caused by irrigation surface cooling. Compared to weak MCS precipitation events, strong MCS precipitation events experience greater enhancement in precipitation intensity when including irrigation because the offset effect from the change in large-scale ascending air motion is insignificant. In addition, irrigation makes the variation of MCS precipitation intensity more correlated with the variation in ascending motion but less correlated with that in atmospheric moisture. Our results suggest the pronounced impacts of irrigation on MCSs over the NCP which should be included in numerical models to improve regional precipitation simulation and prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2011

Flight Simulation Model Exchange

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center Review Board sponsored an assessment of the draft Standard, Flight Dynamics Model Exchange Standard, BSR/ANSI-S-119-201x (S-119) that was conducted by simulation and guidance, navigation, and control engineers from several NASA Centers. The assessment team reviewed the conventions and formats spelled out in the draft Standard and the actual implementation of two example aerodynamic models (a subsonic F-16 and the HL-20 lifting body) encoded in the Extensible Markup Language grammar. During the implementation, the team kept records of lessons learned and provided feedback to the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Modeling and Simulation Technical Committee representative. This document contains the results of the assessment.

Murri, Daniel G.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Flight Simulation Model Exchange: Appendices - Volume 2

Murri, Daniel G.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Convective Systems Over the South China Sea: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was conducted in May-June 1998. One of its major objectives is to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. Multiple observation platforms (e.g., upper-air soundings, Doppler radar, ships, wind profilers, radiometers, etc.) during SCSMEX provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convective storms and air pattern changes associated with monsoons over the South China Sea region. SCSMEX also provided rainfall estimates which allows for comparisons with those obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), a low earth orbit satellite designed to measure rainfall from space. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model (with 1-km grid size) is used to understand and quantify the precipitation processes associated with the summer monsoon over the South China Sea. This is the first (loud-resolving model used to simulate precipitation processes in this particular region. The GCE-model results captured many of the observed precipitation characteristics because it used a fine grid size. For example, the temporal variation of the simulated rainfall compares quite well to the sounding-estimated rainfall variation. The time and domain-averaged temperature (heating/cooling) and water vapor (drying/ moistening) budgets are in good agreement with observations. The GCE-model-simulated rainfall amount also agrees well with TRMM rainfall data. The results show there is more evaporation from the ocean surface prior to the onset of the monsoon than after the on-~et of monsoon when rainfall increases. Forcing due to net radiation (solar heating minus longwave cooling) is responsible for about 25% of the precipitation in SCSMEX The transfer of heat from the ocean into the atmosphere does not contribute significantly to the rainfall in SCSMEX. Model sensitivity tests indicated that total rain production is reduced 17-18% in runs neglecting the ice phase. The SCSMEX results are compared to other GCE-model-simulated weather systems that developed during other field campaigns (i.e., west Pacific warm pool region, eastern Atlantic region and central USA). Large-scale forcing vie temperature and water vapor tendency, is the major energy source for net condensation in the tropical cases. The effects of large-scale cooling exceed that of large-scale moistening in the west pacific warm pool region and eastern Atlantic region. For SCSMEX, however, the effects of large-scale moistening predominate. Net radiation and sensible and latent hc,it fluxes play a much more important role in the central USA.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

fmdtools Tutorial: Intro to Resilience Modelling, Simulation, and Visualization in Python With fmdtools

This workshop will cover the basics of using the fmdtools package for the simulation of hazardous scenarios for resilience simulation. The fmdtools simulation package is an open-source python toolkit for simulating the dynamic response of a system to internal and externally-driven hazardous scenarios, including faults and environmental conditions, that can be used to analyze the risks related to these hazards. Prior to the development of fmdtools, researchers had to either adapt an (often limited) propriety toolkit or develop their own design/simulation/analysis codes to develop their models of hazardous events, a significant technical burden to both (1) leveraging resilience modeling methodologies and (2) extending these methodologies with their own contributions. The fmdtools package provides a number of model constructs and simulation and analysis methods to enable the designer to focus to solely on their modeling case-study while still enabling a significant degree of model expressiveness and adaptability via Python-based model definition. This tutorial will present the setup of fmdtools and a high-level overview of its use, as well as some simple examples for understanding how to leverage its modelling, simulation, and analysis capabilities. Familiarity with jupyter notebook and basic python will be assumed.

Daniel Hulse↗

NASA NTRS1999

Influence of Transport on Two-Dimensional Model Simulation: 2. Stratospheric Aircraft Perturbations: Stratospheric Aircraft Perturbations - 2

We have adopted the transport scenarios used in Part 1 to examine the sensitivity of stratospheric aircraft perturbations to transport changes in our 2-D model. Changes to the strength of the residual circulation in the upper troposphere and stratosphere and changes to the lower stratospheric K(sub zz) had similar effects in that increasing the transport rates decreased the overall stratospheric residence time and reduced the magnitude of the negative perturbation response in total ozone. Increasing the stratospheric K(sub yy) increased the residence time and enhanced the global scale negative total ozone response. However, increasing K(sub yy) along with self-consistent increases in the corresponding planetary wave drive, which leads to a stronger residual circulation, more than compensates for the K(sub yy)-effect, and results in a significantly weaker perturbation response, relative to the base case, throughout the stratosphere. We found a relatively minor model perturbation response sensitivity to the magnitude of K(sub yy) in the tropical stratosphere, and only a very small sensitivity to the magnitude of the horizontal mixing across the tropopause and to the strength of the mesospheric gravity wave drag and diffusion. These transport simulations also revealed a generally strong correlation between passive NO(sub y) accumulation and age of air throughout the stratosphere, such that faster transport rates resulted in a younger mean age and a smaller NO(y) mass accumulation. However, specific variations in K(sub yy) and mesospheric gravity wave strength exhibited very little NO(sub y)-age correlation in the lower stratosphere, similar to 3-D model simulations performed in the recent NASA "Models and Measurements" II analysis. The base model transport, which gives the most favorable overall comparison with inert tracer observations, simulated a global/annual mean total ozone response of -0.59%, with only a slightly larger response in the northern compared to the southern hemisphere. For transport scenarios which gave tracer simulations within some agreement with measurements, the annual/globally averaged total ozone response ranged from -0.45% to -0.70%. Our previous 1995 model exhibited overly fast transport rates, resulting in a global/annually averaged perturbation total ozone response of -0.25%, which is significantly weaker compared to the 1999 model. This illustrates how transport deficiencies can bias model simulations of stratospheric aircraft.

Fleming, Eric L.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Modeling, Simulation and Analysis of Public Key Infrastructure

Security is an essential part of network communication. The advances in cryptography have provided solutions to many of the network security requirements. Public Key Infrastructure (PKI) is the foundation of the cryptography applications. The main objective of this research is to design a model to simulate a reliable, scalable, manageable, and high-performance public key infrastructure. We build a model to simulate the NASA public key infrastructure by using SimProcess and MatLab Software. The simulation is from top level all the way down to the computation needed for encryption, decryption, digital signature, and secure web server. The application of secure web server could be utilized in wireless communications. The results of the simulation are analyzed and confirmed by using queueing theory.

Liu, Yuan-Kwei↗

NASA NTRS2024

Evaluation of CMIP6 Model Simulations of PM 2.5 and its Components Over China

Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulate various components of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) as major climate forcers. Yet the model performance for PM 2.5 components remains little evaluated due in part to a lack of observational data. Here, we evaluate near-surface concentrations of PM 2.5 and its five main components over China as simulated by 14 CMIP6 models, including organic carbon (OC; available in 14 models), black carbon (BC; 14 models), sulfate (14 models), nitrate (4 models), and ammonium (5 models). For this purpose, we collect observational data between 2000 and 2014 from a satellite-based dataset for total PM2.5 and from 2469 measurement records in the literature for PM 2.5 components. Seven models output total PM 2.5 concentrations, and they all underestimate the observed total PM 2.5 over eastern China, with GFDL-ESM4 (−1.5 %) and MPI-ESM-1-2-HAM (−1.1 %) exhibiting the smallest biases averaged over the whole country. The other seven models, for which we recalculate total PM 2.5 from the available component output, underestimate the total PM 2.5 concentrations partly because of the missing model representations of nitrate and ammonium. Concentrations of the five individual components are underestimated in almost all models, except that sulfate is overestimated in MPI-ESM-1-2-HAM by 12.6 % and in MRI-ESM2-0 by 24.5 %. The underestimation is the largest for OC (by −71.2 % to −37.8 % across the 14 models) and the smallest for BC (−47.9 % to −12.1 %). The multi-model mean (MMM) reproduces the observed spatial pattern for OC (R = 0.51), sulfate (R = 0.57), nitrate (R = 0.70) and ammonium (R = 0.74) fairly well, yet the agreement is poorer for BC (R = 0.39). The varying performances of ESMs on total PM 2.5 and its components have important implications for the modeled magnitude and spatial pattern of aerosol radiative forcing.

CMIP6↗

NASA NTRS2007

Coupled Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport/Weather Forecast and Research/Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model: Simulations of Tower-Based and Airborne CO2 Measurements - Part II

This paper evaluates simulations of atmospheric CO2 measured in 2004 at continental surface and airborne receptors, intended to test the capability to use data with high temporal and spatial resolution for analyses of carbon sources and sinks at regional and continental scales. The simulations were performed using the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model driven by the Weather Forecast and Research (WRF) model, and linked to surface fluxes from the satellite-driven Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM). The simulations provide detailed representations of hourly CO2 tower data and reproduce the shapes of airborne vertical profiles with high fidelity. WRF meteorology gives superior model performance compared with standard meteorological products, and the impact of including WRF convective mass fluxes in the STILT trajectory calculations is significant in individual cases. Important biases in the simulation are associated with the nighttime CO2 build-up and subsequent morning transition to convective conditions, and with errors in the advected lateral boundary condition. Comparison of STILT simulations driven by the WRF model against those driven by the Brazilian variant of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) shows that model-to-model differences are smaller than between an individual transport model and observations, pointing to systematic errors in the simulated transport. Future developments in the WRF model s data assimilation capabilities, basic research into the fundamental aspects of trajectory calculations, and intercomparison studies involving other transport models, are possible venues for reducing these errors. Overall, the STILT/WRF/VPRM offers a powerful tool for continental and regional scale carbon flux estimates.

Eluszkiewicz, Janusz↗

NASA NTRS2006

Precipitation processes developed during TOGA COARE (1992), GATE (1974), SCSMEX (1998), and KWAJEX (1999): 3D Cloud Resolving Model Simulation

Real clouds and cloud systems are inherently three-dimensional (3D). Because of the limitations in computer resources, however, most cloud-resolving models (CRMs) today are still two-dimensional (2D). A few 3D CRMs have been used to study the response of clouds to large-scale forcing. In these 3D simulations, the model domain was small, and the integration time was 6 hours. Only recently have 3D experiments been performed for multi-day periods for tropical cloud systems with large horizontal domains at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), NOAA GFDL, the U.K. Met. Office, Colorado State University and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. An improved 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model was recently used to simulate periods during TOGA COARE (December 19-27, 1992), GATE (september 1-7, 1974), SCSMEX (May 18-26, June 2-11, 1998) and KWAJEX (August 7-13, August 18-21, and August 29-September 12, 1999) using a 512 by 512 km domain and 41 vertical layers. The major objectives of this paper are: (1) to identify the differences and similarities in the simulated precipitation processes and their associated surface and water energy budgets in TOGA COARE, GATE, KWAJEX, and SCSMEX, and (2) to asses the impact of microphysics, radiation budget and surface fluxes on the organization of convection in tropics.

Tao, W.-K.↗

NASA NTRS1976

The formulation of simulation models of aeronautical systems

Recent developments in formula-manipulation compilers have led to a significant reduction in the time spent in formulating models of complex multi-degrees-of-freedom dynamical systems. MACSYMA, a computer system that can be used to perform symbolic manipulations in an interactive mode, is applied to the problem of formulating models of aeronautical systems for simulation studies. An example demonstrates that once the procedure is established, the formulation and modification of the models can be reduced to a series of routine computer operations.

Howard, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Effects of cumulus entrainment and multiple cloud types on a January global climate model simulation

An improved version of the GISS Model II cumulus parameterization designed for long-term climate integrations is used to study the effects of entrainment and multiple cloud types on the January climate simulation. Instead of prescribing convective mass as a fixed fraction of the cloud base grid-box mass, it is calculated based on the closure assumption that the cumulus convection restores the atmosphere to a neutral moist convective state at cloud base. This change alone significantly improves the distribution of precipitation, convective mass exchanges, and frequencies in the January climate. The vertical structure of the tropical atmosphere exhibits quasi-equilibrium behavior when this closure is used, even though there is no explicit constraint applied above cloud base.

Yao, Mao-Sung↗