Temporal complementarity and value of wind-PV hybrid systems across the United States
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The NASA Glenn Research Center is developing non-destructive-testing (NDT) methods to enable the measurement of stresses embedded in optically opaque materials using microwave radiation in a free-space quasi-optical system. This methodology tracks microwave resonances observed in reflected scattering parameters extracted from materials under load. In this paper, we report the successful measurement of the stress-optic-coefficient of bulk yttria-partially stabilized zirconia (YTZP) ceramic of C = 1.42 x 10-4 ± 6.65 x 10-6 (1/GPa), across W-Band (80-100 GHz), and determined that this result is independent of sample thickness. The primary goal of this research is to establish a methodology to quantify and assess the life expectancy of ceramic thermal and environmental barrier coating (TBCs/EBCs). Bulk YTZP samples can undergo multiple resonances within a contiguous measurement bandwidth, each corresponding to an integer multiple wave number ∝. This allows for the acquisition and analysis of multiple stress measurement points within a single sample. As an additional benefit, one can approximate the refractive index of YTZP across a wide bandwidth by observing multiple resonances produced by a set of samples with varying thicknesses. Using this approach, the refractive index of bulk YTZP was found to be n = 5.80 ± 0.043 across the 85-115 GHz frequency band.
The U.S. energy system is evolving as society and technologies change. Renewable electricity generation - especially from wind and solar - is growing rapidly, and alternative energy sources are being developed and implemented across the residential, commercial, transportation, and industrial sectors to take advantage of their cost, security, and health benefits. Systemic changes present numerous challenges to grid resiliency and energy affordability, creating a need for synergistic solutions that satisfy multiple applications while yielding system-wide cost and emissions benefits. One such solution is an integrated hydrogen energy system. This is the focus of H2@Scale - a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) initiative led by the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy’s Hydrogen and Fuel Technologies Office. H2@Scale brings together stakeholders to advance affordable hydrogen production, transport, storage, and utilization in multiple energy sectors. The H2@Scale concept involves hydrogen as an energy intermediate. Hydrogen can be produced from various conventional and renewable energy sources including as a responsive load on the electric grid. Hydrogen has many current applications and many more potential applications, such as energy for transportation - used directly in fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), as a feedstock for synthetic fuels, and to upgrade oil and biomass - feedstock for industry (e.g., for ammonia production, metals refining, and other end uses), heat for industry and buildings, and electricity storage. Owing to its flexibility and fungibility, a hydrogen intermediate could link energy sources that have surplus availability to markets that require energy or chemical feedstocks, benefiting both. This document builds upon a growing body of analyses of hydrogen as an energy intermediate by reporting the results from our initial analysis of the potential impacts of the H2@Scale vision by the mid-21 st century for the 48 contiguous U.S. states. Previous estimates have been based on expert elicitation and focused on hydrogen demands. We build upon them, first, by estimating hydrogen’s serviceable consumption potential for possible hydrogen applications and the technical potential for producing hydrogen from various resources. We define the serviceable consumption potential as the quantity of hydrogen that would be consumed to serve the portion of the market that could be captured without considering economics (i.e., if the price of hydrogen were $0/kg over an extended period); thus, it can be considered an upper bound for the size of the market. We define the technical potential as the resource potential constrained by real-world geography and system performance, but not by economics. We then compare the cumulative serviceable consumption potential with the technical potential of a number of possible sources. Second, we estimate economic potential: the quantity of hydrogen at an equilibrium price at which suppliers are willing to sell and consumers are willing to buy the same quantity of hydrogen. We believe this method provides a deeper understanding than was available in the previous analyses. We develop economic potentials for multiple scenarios across various market and technology-advancement assumptions.
The C language integrated production system (CLIPS) is a forward chaining rule based language to provide training and delivery for expert systems. Conceptually, rule based languages have great potential for benefiting from the inherent parallelism of the algorithms that they employ. During each cycle of execution, a knowledge base of information is compared against a set of rules to determine if any rules are applicable. Parallelism also can be employed for use with multiple cooperating expert systems. To investigate the potential benefits of using a parallel computer to speed up the comparison of facts to rules in expert systems, a parallel version of CLIPS was developed for the FLEX/32, a large grain parallel computer. The FLEX implementation takes a macroscopic approach in achieving parallelism by splitting whole sets of rules among several processors rather than by splitting the components of an individual rule among processors. The parallel CLIPS prototype demonstrates the potential advantages of integrating expert system tools with parallel computers.
There is a significant interest in the Earth Science research and user remote sensing community to substantially increase the number of useful observations relative to the current frequency of collection. The obvious reason for such a push is to improve the temporal, spectral, and spatial coverage of the area(s) under investigation. However, there is little analysis available in terms of the benefits, costs and the optimal set of sensors needed to make the necessary observations. Classic observing system solutions may no longer be applicable because of their point design philosophy. Instead, a new intelligent data collection system paradigm employing both reactive and proactive measurement strategies with adaptability to the dynamics of the phenomena should be developed. This is a complex problem that should be carefully studied and balanced across various boundaries including: science, modeling, applications, and technology. Modeling plays a crucial role in making useful predictions about naturally occurring or human-induced phenomena In particular, modeling can serve to mitigate the potentially deleterious impacts a phenomenon may have on human life, property, and the economy. This is especially significant when one is interested in learning about the dynamics of, for example, the spread of forest fires, regional to large-scale air quality issues, the spread of the harmful invasive species, or the atmospheric transport of volcanic plumes and ash. This paper identifies and examines these challenging issues and presents architectural alternatives for an integrated sensor web to provide observing scenarios driving the requisite dynamic spatial, spectral, and temporal characteristics to address these key application areas. A special emphasis is placed on the observing systems and its operational aspects in serving the multiple users and stakeholders in providing societal benefits. We also address how such systems will take advantage of technological advancement in small spacecraft and emerging information technologies, and how sensor web options may be realized and made affordable. Specialized detector subsystems and precision flying techniques may still require substantial innovation, development time and cost: we have presented the considerations for these issues. Finally, data and information gathering and compression techniques are also briefly described.
Remanufacturing is a well-established end-of-life (EOL) strategy that promises significant savings in energy and carbon emissions. However, the current design practices are not remanufacturing-inclusive, i.e., the majority of products are designed for a single life cycle. As a result, potential products that can sustain multiple life cycles are deprived of additional benefits of being designed for remanufacturing, such as reduced material usage, lower cost, and improved environmental impact. Moreover, the uncertainty in design, material selection, and economics are not considered to produce remanufacturable designs. Accordingly, this research proposes a design for remanufacturing (DfRem) framework that accounts for design uncertainty and material price volatility. The framework systematically explores the design space, performs design optimization under uncertainty, followed by topology optimization to provide additional mass savings, and finally, a price volatility analysis for plausible design material choices. The candidate designs are evaluated based on their design mass, material price volatility, failure mode characteristics, carbon footprint, and embodied energy impacts. The proposed framework's utility is demonstrated via the use of an engine cylinder head case study subjected to thermo-mechanical loads along with fatigue and wear failure. Considering grey cast iron and aluminum alloy as the design material choices, it was found that the cast iron design reduced the initial design mass by 6% as opposed to a 5% decrease for aluminum. On the other hand, about 8% area of the cast iron design failed due to fatigue, compared to 3% for aluminum. Here, we further observed that although the aluminum design provided better mechanical performance than the cast iron design, this material was more expensive and volatile in price.
Communities worldwide have used vaccines and facemasks to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. When an individual opts to vaccinate or wear a mask, they may lower their own risk of becoming infected as well as the risk that they pose to others while infected. The first benefit–reducing susceptibility–has been established across multiple studies, while the second–reducing infectivity–is less well understood. Using a new statistical method, we estimate the efficacy of vaccines and facemasks at reducing both types of risks from contact tracing data collected in an urban setting. We find that vaccination reduced the risk of onward transmission by 40.7% [95% CI 25.8–53.2%] during the Delta wave and 31.0% [95% CI 19.4–40.9%] during the Omicron wave and that mask wearing reduced the risk of infection by 64.2% [95% CI 5.8–77.3%] during the Omicron wave. By harnessing commonly-collected contact tracing data, the approach can broadly provide timely and actionable estimates of intervention efficacy against a rapidly evolving pathogen.
Significance Researchers lack the tools for quantitatively evaluating the impact of their research on technology costs, especially when those technologies comprise multiple components or when the component costs are highly uncertain. We propose a suite of tools to aid in evaluating technology platforms, setting system- and component-level research targets and identifying high-impact innovation trajectories. These tools are applicable to any technology composed of multiple components whose performance or cost will benefit from innovation, but they are especially valuable for membrane systems in which the high interdependence in components amplifies or dampens the effects of innovation in nonintuitive ways.
With the advancement of exascale computing, the amount of scientific data is increasing day by day. Efficient data access is necessary for scientific discoveries. Unfortunately, the I/O performance is not improved, like the CPU and network speed. So, I/O operations take longer time than data generation or analysis. Asynchronous I/O has been proposed to extenuate the I/O bottleneck by overlapping I/O and computation time. However, multiple small write operations can diminish the benefits of asynchronous I/O, as the I/O time becomes significantly longer than the compute time, with little time to overlap with. To overcome these issues, we present an optimization technique to merge small contiguous write operations. We integrated our solution into the HDF5 asynchronous I/O VOL connector and demonstrated the effectiveness of merging HDF5 write operations automatically and transparently without requiring any code change from the application.
As the adoption of solar plus storage technology is rapidly increasing, there is a need for a more wholistic view of homes adopting them. In homes, both energy efficiency (EE) upgrades and DERs provide value not just to the homeowner, but to utilities and even society at large through emissions. Traditionally, EE and DERs are separate sectors, which makes it difficult to understand the co-benefits of their adoption. To address this, we created a novel workflow of tools that allows for a complete analysis of both efficiency and DERs. We also looked at a suite of metrics designed to capture the different benefits provided to different stakeholders, demonstrated with multiple sets of field data. A final report demonstrates the potential of the simulation workflow by simulating hundreds of buildings spread across the U.S. and demonstrating how a variety of factors affect the optimal sizing of DERs along with several other key metrics including energy, utility bills, emissions, and average resilience hours.
Proper characterization of the precipitation drop size distribution (DSD) is integral to providing realistic and accurate space- and ground-based precipitation retrievals. Current technology allows for the development of DSD products from a variety of platforms, including disdrometers, vertical profilers and dual-polarization radars. Up to now, however, the dissemination or availability of such products has been limited to individual sites and/or field campaigns, in a variety of formats, often using inconsistent algorithms for computing the integral DSD parameters, such as the median- and mass-weighted drop diameter, total number concentration, liquid water content, rain rate, etc. We propose to develop a framework for the generation and dissemination of DSD characteristic products using a unified structure, capable of handling the myriad collection of disdrometers, profilers, and dual-polarization radar data currently available and to be collected during several upcoming GPM Ground Validation field campaigns. This DSD super-structure paradigm is an adaptation of the radar super-structure developed for NASA s Radar Software Library (RSL) and RSL_in_IDL. The goal is to provide the DSD products in a well-documented format, most likely NetCDF, along with tools to ingest and analyze the products. In so doing, we can develop a robust archive of DSD products from multiple sites and platforms, which should greatly benefit the development and validation of precipitation retrieval algorithms for GPM and other precipitation missions. An outline of this proposed framework will be provided as well as a discussion of the algorithms used to calculate the DSD parameters.
Emergency response to natural disasters requires coordination between multiple local, state, and federal agencies. Single, relatively weak tornado events may require comparatively simple response efforts; but larger "outbreak" events with multiple strong, long-track tornadoes can benefit from additional tools to help expedite these efforts. Meteorologists from NOAA's National Weather Service conduct field surveys to map tornado tracks, assess damage, and determine the tornado intensity following each event. Moderate and high resolution satellite imagery can support these surveys by providing a high-level view of the affected areas. Satellite imagery could then be used to target areas for immediate survey or to corroborate the results of the survey after it is completed. In this study, the feasibility of using satellite imagery to identify tornado damage tracks was determined by comparing the characteristics of tracks observed from low-earth orbit to tracks assessed during the official NWS storm survey process. Of the 68 NWS confirmed centerlines, 24 tracks (35.3%) could be distinguished from other surface features using satellite imagery. Within each EF category, 0% of EF-0, 3% of EF-1, 50% of EF-2, 77.7% of EF-3, 87.5% of EF-4 and 100% of EF-5 tornadoes were detected. It was shown that satellite data can be used to identify tornado damage tracks in MODIS and ASTER NDVI imagery, where damage to vegetation creates a sharp drop in values though the minimum EF-category which can be detected is dependent upon the type of sensor used and underlying vegetation. Near-real time data from moderate resolution sensors compare favorably to field surveys after the event and suggest that the data can provide some value in the assessment process.
Emergency response to natural disasters requires coordination between multiple local, state, and federal agencies. Single, relatively weak tornado events may require comparatively simple response efforts; but larger "outbreak" events with multiple strong, long-track tornadoes can benefit from additional tools to help expedite these efforts. Meteorologists from NOAA's National Weather Service conduct field surveys to map tornado tracks, assess damage, and determine the tornado intensity following each event. Moderate and high resolution satellite imagery can support these surveys by providing a high-level view of the affected areas. Satellite imagery could then be used to target areas for immediate survey or to corroborate the results of the survey after it is completed. In this study, the feasibility of using satellite imagery to identify tornado damage tracks was determined by comparing the characteristics of tracks observed from low-earth orbit to tracks assessed during the official NWS storm survey process. Of the 68 NWS confirmed centerlines, 24 tracks (35.3%) could be distinguished from other surface features using satellite imagery. Within each EF category, 0% of EF-0, 3% of EF-1, 50% of EF-2, 77.7% of EF-3, 87.5% of EF-4 and 100% of EF-5 tornadoes were detected. It was shown that satellite data can be used to identify tornado damage tracks in MODIS and ASTER NDVI imagery, where damage to vegetation creates a sharp drop in values though the minimum EF-category which can be detected is dependent upon the type of sensor used and underlying vegetation. Near-real time data from moderate resolution sensors compare favorably to field surveys after the event and suggest that the data can provide some value in the assessment process.
The number of NASA sponsored Small Satellite (SmallSat) missions is expected to continue to grow rapidly in the next decade and beyond. There is a growing trend towards more ambitious SmallSat missions, including formation flying (Constellation, Cluster, Trailing) SmallSats and SmallSats destined for lunar orbit and beyond. This paper will present an overview of new service offerings the NASA Near Earth Network (NEN) is currently investigating and demonstrating. It will describe the benefits that new service offerings such as Multiple Spacecraft Per Aperture (MSPA), Ground-based Phased Array (GBPA) antennas, Ground-based Aperture Arrays, and Ground-based Antenna Arraying could provide to individual or formation flying SmallSats anywhere from low-earth orbit to the Sun-Earth Lagrange point orbits. It will also present potential implementation options for future demonstrations at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Wallops Flight Facility (WFF) as well as goals and objectives of such demonstrations.
The first major evolution of NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) will begin its flights starting in the mid-2020’s. This new configuration, called Block 1B, replaces the Interim Cryogenic Propulsion Stage with a larger Exploration Upper Stage (EUS). The additional capability provided by the new upper stage will allow SLS to send heavier payloads into deep space. One destination of interest to the SLS program is called a Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit (NRHO). This is a type of lunar orbit with multiple advantages for deep space exploration. These benefits include Earth/lunar access, low station-keeping requirements, and high communication potential with Earth. Therefore, it is a leading candidate for the proposed Lunar Orbital Platform-Gateway (LOP-G). This paper will provide a detailed assessment of the SLS Block 1B requirements and capabilities for sending payloads to an NRHO. Analysts at Marshall Space Flight Center are producing a multi-year mission availability scan for the SLS Block 1B configuration to a predefined NRHO orbit. The analysis produces an optimized trajectory for each day of the scan window. A maximized payload and minimized propellant requirement are determined for each day. All maneuvers from launch to the end of the Trans-Lunar-Injection (TLI) are being modeled as finite burns. Injections into an NRHO are being modeled as impulsive maneuvers. The payload element is arbitrary, but includes sufficient mass to represent a large habitat or propulsion module. The resulting parameters of payload capability, delta-v requirements, and launch windows length vary over the course of the scan. Many launch days in the scan are eliminated in post-processing as they violate mission constraints such as payload mass and propellant usage to insert into an NRHO. Based off previous one-year scan results for the SLS Block 1B Design Analysis Cycle 2 (DAC-2), it is expected that there will be one to three days per week where the payload is able to insert into an NRHO within SLS constraints objectives. This scan provides results for longer than one-year, allowing analysts to better understand the launch availability and energy requirements of SLS Block 1B over time. The in-space mission design and scans utilize Copernicus, an n-body trajectory optimization tool originally developed out of the University of Texas at Austin with further development at Johnson Space Center in Houston, TX. To seed the in-space trajectory, Copernicus uses a plugin to call a database of SLS ascent trajectories optimized in the Program to Simulate Optimized Trajectories II (POST2). The ascent trajectories are developed using a framework that parametrizes payload mass and LEO inclination, and targets a 100 nmi (nautical mile) altitude circular parking orbit. Though this analysis is specific to the SLS program, it will provide a summary of mission design benefits and constraints associated with generic NRHO access, and may be applied to other programs or concepts that will utilize this orbit.
The Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) is a fast, 1-D radiative transfer model used in numerical weather prediction, calibration/validation, etc. across multiple federal agencies and universities. The key benefit of the CRTM is that it is a satellite simulator. It provides a highly accurate representation of satellite radiances by using the specific sensor response functions convolved with a line-by-line radiative transfer model (LBLRTM). CRTM covers the spectral ranges consistent with all present operational and most research satellites, from visible to microwave. The capability to simulate ultraviolet radiances and support space-based radar sensors is being added over the next two years in CRTM Version 3.0. In addition to simulated radiances, the CRTM also provides Jacobian outputs needed to interpret satellite observations for numerical weather prediction. The Jacobian estimates how changes in geophysical parameters affect simulated measurements from satellite sensors. Using the Jacobian in modeling and weather prediction improves the accuracy and efficiency of data analysis, leading to better weather predictions. The CRTM model's success and growth depend on community contributions and evaluation. To facilitate this, we have made the CRTM highly accessible through modular programming, clear documentation and tutorials, public domain licensing, unfettered public access via Github, and a clear path to operational implementation for innovative research. We encourage and welcome contributions from the community to help us continue to improve the CRTM.
This chapter presents a baseline assessment of DOE’s current portfolio related to hybrid systems that produce electricity as their only output (Track 1), within the context of the key challenges facing these systems. Of particular importance is that this chapter is focused on understanding what makes a hybrid different from two standalone technologies, both in terms of the research being performed and the challenges that ongoing and planned research will seek to overcome. The purpose of summarizing and describing current research areas is to identify opportunities DOE could consider supporting in the near term. DOE encompasses several offices, each of which has unique objectives and is financially constrained. Additionally, the emergence of low-cost hybrid resources presents an array of new opportunities for the electricity sector, including better managing and allocating risk, improving operating performance, reducing system costs, and enhancing reliability and resilience. Realizing these opportunities will require overcoming barriers to the deployment of hybrids through targeted R&D which multiple DOE offices can invest in and benefit from.
Significant advances have been made in the additive manufacturing (AM) of thermoplastics and optically cured thermosets; however, AM of thermally cured thermosets has lagged. Materials belonging to this class of thermosets, such as silicone rubbers and polyurethanes, are not well represented in the AM space despite their widespread use in medical, defense, and other fields. Ideally, a solution would enable AM of current commercially viable thermally cured thermosets with a speed that is comparable to those already realized for thermoplastics and optically cured thermosets. Realizing this goal will provide several benefits, including: 1. Make thermally cured thermoset designs impossible via casting. 2. Iteration of part designs without investment in new molds. 3. Devices and personal protection equipment, custom-fit to the end-user. 4. Ability to print multifunctional composite materials. 5. Rapid production ability for DoD personnel deployed at forward locations. 6. Simplify supply chains and replace multiple parts with a single raw material. These benefits motivate the development of a commercially viable 3D printer for thermally cured thermosets, based on the technique of photothermal curing. This project further developed a printer capable of printing composites containing commercially available thermally cured polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS), directly yielding cured parts such as boxes, walls, and free-standing overhangs.