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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12

Enhancements of Bayesian Blocks; Application to Large Light Curve Databases

Bayesian Blocks are optimal piecewise linear representations (step function fits) of light-curves. The simple algorithm implementing this idea, using dynamic programming, has been extended to include more data modes and fitness metrics, multivariate analysis, and data on the circle (Studies in Astronomical Time Series Analysis. VI. Bayesian Block Representations, Scargle, Norris, Jackson and Chiang 2013, ApJ, 764, 167), as well as new results on background subtraction and refinement of the procedure for precise timing of transient events in sparse data. Example demonstrations will include exploratory analysis of the Kepler light curve archive in a search for "star-tickling" signals from extraterrestrial civilizations. (The Cepheid Galactic Internet, Learned, Kudritzki, Pakvasa1, and Zee, 2008, arXiv: 0809.0339; Walkowicz et al., in progress).

Kepler light curve archive↗

Gaining Perspective on Unconventional Well Design Choices through Play-level Application of Machine Learning Modeling

The recent development of unconventional oil and gas (O&G) reservoirs has led to an abundant hydrocarbon supply, both domestically and globally. However, there is a continued push to develop new and innovative approaches to improve exploration and extraction efficiencies and overall well productivity moving forward. Substantial improvements in unconventional O&G development are expected through optimized well completion and stimulation strategies aimed at maximizing well productivity. Optimizing well designs will require tailoring to the distinctive geologic conditions present for any newly placed well. To better evaluate the impact of well design attributes and their associated interactions on productivity in a major unconventional play, multivariate machine learning-based models that use empirical datasets were developed. A gradient boosted regression tree (GBRT) algorithm was applied. GBRT has been narrowly investigated for O&G applications but enables straightforward parametric importance and influence evaluation, as well as assessment of parameter interaction effects. Models were trained on well design and locational parameters that serve as a proxy for variable geologic conditions to estimate two types of productivity indicator response variables strongly correlated to estimated ultimate recovery (EUR). The dataset utilized consists of over 7,000 well observations that cover the majority of the productive region of the Marcellus Shale. Model performance was evaluated and algorithm parameters tuned by analyzing the goodness-of-fit for simulated results against observed data in a cross-validation approach. Models were found capable of 73–79 percent prediction accuracy on held out testing data of gas equivalent production and can be used to inform future well design and placement decisions for increasing EUR per well and improving overall field-level recovery. Study results indicate that Marcellus well performance improves most with upscaling perforated interval lengths and water and proppant volumes per foot; but relative productivity improvements are spatially dependent across the play. Finally, optimal combinations of water and proppant on well performance were found to vary depending on well location, emphasizing the utility of data-driven models capable of broad application across a play of interest for informing tailored well design approaches prior to their field deployment.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Specification of inputs and instrumentation for flutter testing of multivariable systems

The application of system identification methods in flutter testing of aeroelastic structure is discussed. The accuracy with which flutter parameters are estimated depends upon the test plan and on the algorithms used to reduce the data. The techniques for selecting the kinds and optimal positions of inputs and instrumentation, under typical test constraints, are presented. Identification results for both the input/output transfer function and the value of physical parameters are given. Numerical results on the optimal input spectrum and the accelerometer location for estimating flutter parameters of a two dimensional wing are obtained using these algorithms. Current work on applying system identification methods to high order three dimensional aeroelastic structures is reported.

Gupta, N. K.↗

Parallel hybrid quantum-classical machine learning for kernelized time-series classification

Supervised time-series classification garners widespread interest because of its applicability throughout a broad application domain including finance, astronomy, biosensors, and many others. Here, in this work, we tackle this problem with hybrid quantum-classical machine learning, deducing pairwise temporal relationships between time-series instances using a timeseries Hamiltonian kernel (TSHK). A TSHK is constructed with a sum of inner products generated by quantum states evolved using a parameterized time evolution operator. This sum is then optimally weighted using techniques derived from multiple kernel learning. Because we treat the kernel weighting step as a differentiable convex optimization problem, our method can be regarded as an end-to-end learnable hybrid quantum-classical-convex neural network, or QCC-net, whose output is a data set-generalized kernel function suitable for use in any kernelized machine learning technique such as the support vector machine (SVM). Using our TSHK as input to a SVM, we classify univariate and multivariate time-series using quantum circuit simulators and demonstrate the efficient parallel deployment of the algorithm to 127-qubit superconducting quantum processors using quantum multi-programming.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Bio-inspired gas sensing: boosting performance with sensor optimization guided by “machine learning”

The performance of existing gas sensors often degrades in field conditions because of the loss of measurement accuracy in the presence of interferences. Thus, new sensing approaches are required with improved sensor selectivity. We are developing a new generation of gas sensors, known as multivariable sensors, that have several independent responses for multi-gas detection with a single sensor. In this study, we analyze the capabilities of natural and fabricated photonic three-dimensional (3-D) nanostructures as sensors for the detection of different gaseous species, such as vapors and non-condensable gases. We employed bare Morpho butterfly wing scales to control their gas selectivity with different illumination angles. Next, we chemically functionalized Morpho butterfly wing scales with a fluorinated silane to boost the response of these nanostructures to the vapors of interest and to suppress the response to ambient humidity. Further, we followed our previously developed design rules for sensing nanostructures and fabricated bioinspired inorganic 3-D nanostructures to achieve functionality beyond natural Morpho scales. These fabricated nanostructures have embedded catalytically active gold nanoparticles to operate at high temperatures of ≈300 °C for the detection of gases for solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) applications. Our performance advances in the detection of multiple gaseous species with specific nanostructure designs were achieved by coupling the spectral responses of these nanostructures with machine learning (a.k.a. multivariate analysis, chemometrics) tools. Our newly acquired knowledge from studies of these natural and fabricated inorganic nanostructures coupled with machine learning data analytics allowed us to advance our design rules for sensing nanostructures toward the required gas selectivity for numerous gas monitoring scenarios at room and high temperatures for industrial, environmental, and other applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Lessons Learned from Assimilating Altimeter Data into a Coupled General Circulation Model with the GMAO Augmented Ensemble Kalman Filter

Satellite altimetry measurements have provided global, evenly distributed observations of the ocean surface since 1993. However, the difficulties introduced by the presence of model biases and the requirement that data assimilation systems extrapolate the sea surface height (SSH) information to the subsurface in order to estimate the temperature, salinity and currents make it difficult to optimally exploit these measurements. This talk investigates the potential of the altimetry data assimilation once the biases are accounted for with an ad hoc bias estimation scheme. Either steady-state or state-dependent multivariate background-error covariances from an ensemble of model integrations are used to address the problem of extrapolating the information to the sub-surface. The GMAO ocean data assimilation system applied to an ensemble of coupled model instances using the GEOS-5 AGCM coupled to MOM4 is used in the investigation. To model the background error covariances, the system relies on a hybrid ensemble approach in which a small number of dynamically evolved model trajectories is augmented on the one hand with past instances of the state vector along each trajectory and, on the other, with a steady state ensemble of error estimates from a time series of short-term model forecasts. A state-dependent adaptive error-covariance localization and inflation algorithm controls how the SSH information is extrapolated to the sub-surface. A two-step predictor corrector approach is used to assimilate future information. Independent (not-assimilated) temperature and salinity observations from Argo floats are used to validate the assimilation. A two-step projection method in which the system first calculates a SSH increment and then projects this increment vertically onto the temperature, salt and current fields is found to be most effective in reconstructing the sub-surface information. The performance of the system in reconstructing the sub-surface fields is particularly impressive for temperature, but not as satisfactory for salt.

Keppenne, Christian↗

A Deterministic Multivariate Clustering Method for Drive Cycle Generation from In-Use Vehicle Data

Accurately characterizing vehicle drive cycles plays a fundamental role in assessing the performance of new vehicle technologies. Repeatable, short duration representative drive cycles facilitate more informed decision making, resulting in improved test procedures and more successful vehicle designs. With continued growth in the deployment of onboard telematics systems employing global positioning systems (GPS), large scale, low cost collection of real-world vehicle drive cycle data has become a reality. As a result of these technological advances, researchers, designers, and engineers are no longer constrained by lack of operating data when developing and optimizing technology, but rather by resources available for testing and simulation. Experimental testing is expensive and time consuming, therefore the need exists for a fast and accurate means of generating representative cycles from large volumes of real-world driving data. This paper explores the development and initial validation of a method of generating representative drive cycles from large collections of real-world vehicle data using a deterministic multivariate clustering approach. Starting with theory and diving into the methodology behind representative cycle generation, the paper aims to also present graphical and tabular results of initial validation via vehicle simulation and chassis dynamometer testing. Additional topics for further research and areas for ongoing development will also be presented.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

State-space design of low-order stabilizers

An algorithm is presented for stabilizing a linear multivariable system with a controller of fixed dynamic order. This is an output feedback stabilization problem. The algorithm attempts to solve this by a sequence of approximate pole assignment problems. The approximation is driven by the optimization of an objective function consisting of a weighted sum of the condition number of the closed-loop eigenvectors and the norm of the difference between the computed and actual equivalent state-feedback controls.

Keel, L. H.↗

Modeling and managing risk early in software development

In order to improve the quality of the software development process, we need to be able to build empirical multivariate models based on data collectable early in the software process. These models need to be both useful for prediction and easy to interpret, so that remedial actions may be taken in order to control and optimize the development process. We present an automated modeling technique which can be used as an alternative to regression techniques. We show how it can be used to facilitate the identification and aid the interpretation of the significant trends which characterize 'high risk' components in several Ada systems. Finally, we evaluate the effectiveness of our technique based on a comparison with logistic regression based models.

Briand, Lionel C.↗

Long-term missing value imputation for time series data using deep neural networks

We present an approach that uses a deep learning model, in particular, a MultiLayer Perceptron, for estimating the missing values of a variable in multivariate time series data. We focus on filling a long continuous gap (e.g., multiple months of missing daily observations) rather than on individual randomly missing observations. Our proposed gap filling algorithm uses an automated method for determining the optimal MLP model architecture, thus allowing for optimal prediction performance for the given time series. We tested our approach by filling gaps of various lengths (three months to three years) in three environmental datasets with different time series characteristics, namely daily groundwater levels, daily soil moisture, and hourly Net Ecosystem Exchange. We compared the accuracy of the gap-filled values obtained with our approach to the widely used R-based time series gap filling methods ImputeTS and mtsdi. The results indicate that using an MLP for filling a large gap leads to better results, especially when the data behave nonlinearly. Thus, our approach enables the use of datasets that have a large gap in one variable, which is common in many long-term environmental monitoring observations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Remote Americium Detection Using an Optical Sensor: A D-Optimal Strategy for Efficient PLS-Based Modeling

A fiber-optic visible–near-infrared absorption spectroscopy system in a glove box was demonstrated for remote quantification of Am(III) (0–500 µM) and HNO 3 (0.1–9 M) using partial least squares regression (PLSR) models. The sensor platform, featuring a simple plug-and-play spectrophotometer, can enable noninvasive, real-time monitoring of actinide process solutions. To establish a flexible PLSR model calibration strategy, a D-optimal design developed using Nd(III) in previous studies was successfully extended to an actinide system with Am(III) to effectively minimize sample set size while maintaining robust prediction performance. The results suggest strong spectral similarities between Nd(III) and Am(III) and validate Nd(III) as an effective optical surrogate for trivalent actinide species. This work also supports the generalizability of a D-optimal training set selection approach for two-factor systems. The PLS1 models for Am(III) and HNO 3 outperformed a PLS2 model and maintained reasonable performance in the presence of interfering U(VI). The resulting sensor system and multivariate approach provides a flexible and scalable solution for process monitoring, control, and safety in diverse nuclear applications.

actinide↗

Extended cooperative control synthesis

This paper reports on research for extending the Cooperative Control Synthesis methodology to include a more accurate modeling of the pilot's controller dynamics. Cooperative Control Synthesis (CCS) is a methodology that addresses the problem of how to design control laws for piloted, high-order, multivariate systems and/or non-conventional dynamic configurations in the absence of flying qualities specifications. This is accomplished by emphasizing the parallel structure inherent in any pilot-controlled, augmented vehicle. The original CCS methodology is extended to include the Modified Optimal Control Model (MOCM), which is based upon the optimal control model of the human operator developed by Kleinman, Baron, and Levison in 1970. This model provides a modeling of the pilot's compensation dynamics that is more accurate than the simplified pilot dynamic representation currently in the CCS methodology. Inclusion of the MOCM into the CCS also enables the modeling of pilot-observation perception thresholds and pilot-observation attention allocation affects. This Extended Cooperative Control Synthesis (ECCS) allows for the direct calculation of pilot and system open- and closed-loop transfer functions in pole/zero form and is readily implemented in current software capable of analysis and design for dynamic systems. Example results based upon synthesizing an augmentation control law for an acceleration command system in a compensatory tracking task using the ECCS are compared with a similar synthesis performed by using the original CCS methodology. The ECCS is shown to provide augmentation control laws that yield more favorable, predicted closed-loop flying qualities and tracking performance than those synthesized using the original CCS methodology.

Davidson, John B.↗

Multiwavelength Luminosity Functions of Galaxies

I have developed a technique for measuring multi-variate luminosity functions of galaxies. Multivariate or multi-wavelength luminosity functions will reveal the interplay between star formation, chemical evolution, and absorption and re-emission of dust within evolving galaxy populations. By using principle component analysis to reduce the dimensionality of the problem, I optimally extract the relevant photometric information from large galaxy catalogs. As a demonstration of the technique, I derive the multiwavelength luminosity function for the galaxies in the released SDSS catalog, and show that the results are consistent with those obtained by traditional methods. This technique will be applicable to catalogs of galaxies from datasets obtained by the SIRTF and GALEX missions.

Gardner, Jonathan↗

Multi-wavelength Luminosity Functions of Galaxies

Multivariate or multi-wavelength luminosity functions will reveal the interplay between star formation, chemical evolution, and absorption and re-emission of dust within evolving galaxy populations. By using principal component analysis to reduce the dimensionality of the problem, we optimally extract the relevant photometric information from large galaxy catalogs. As a demonstration of the technique, we derive the multi-wavelength luminosity function for the galaxies in the released SDSS catalog, and compare the results with those obtained by traditional methods. This technique will be applicable to catalogs of galaxies from datasets obtained by 2MASS, and the SIRTF and GALEX missions.

Gardner, J. P.↗

Multivariate Testing of Sampling Techniques to Address Class Imbalance in Building Use Type Classification

This study addresses the challenges inherent in building use type classification, particularly focusing on the issue of class imbalance in the training datasets for machine learning classifiers. We comprehensively analyze the efficacy of various class-balancing sampling techniques. Employing Monte Carlo simulations and Bayesian optimization, we evaluated the performance of multiple sampling methods, including Random Oversampling, Random Undersampling, SMOTE, Borderline-SMOTE, and ADASYN, across a dataset encompassing nine southeastern coastal states of the United States. Our findings reveal that simple random over- and undersampling techniques outperform more sophisticated methods. Additionally, we show inherent value in creating an imbalance in training data to effectively train a machine learning classifier for distinguishing between residential and nonresidential buildings. This study provides valuable guidance for future research on building use type classification research and lays essential groundwork for developing attribute-rich building stock datasets.

Adams, Daniel↗

Learning Planar Ising Models Software

Learning Planar Ising Models is a software package written in Matlab for learning relationships among variable in a dataset using graphical models. The software package implements a generally-applicable algorithm for learning planar Ising models from any multivariate dataset. The code provides an algorithm for learning the best planar Ising model to approximate an arbitrary collection of binary random variables (possibly from sample data). Given the set of all pairwise correlations among variables, we select a planar graph and optimal planar Ising model defined on this graph to best approximate that set of correlations. The software includes demonstrations of the algorithm in simulations and for applications on publicly available datasets. Details of the algorithm, demonstration simulations, and applications are given in Johnson, et al; 2016. Reference: Johnson, J. K., Oyen, D., Chertkov, M., and Netrapalli, P. (2016). Learning planar Ising models. Journal of Machine Learning Research.

Oyen, Diane↗

Multi-Wavelength Luminosity Functions of Galaxies

Multivariate or multi-wavelength luminosity functions will reveal the interplay between star formation, chemical evolution, and ab- sorption and re-emission of dust within evolving galaxy populations. By using principal component analysis to reduce the dimensionality of the problem, I optimally extract the relevant photometric information from large galaxy catalogs. As a demonstration of the technique, I derive the multi-wavelength luminosity function for the galaxies in the released SDSS catalog, and compare the results with those obtained by traditional methods. This technique will be applicable to catalogs of galaxies from datasets obtained by 2MASS, and the SIRTF and GALEX missions.

Gardner, Jonathan P.↗

A Voltage Inference Framework for Real-Time Observability in Active Distribution Grids

Active distribution grids are gaining traction to meet the growing environmental, socio-economic, and sustainability targets. Various advanced smart grid technologies facilitate the integration of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) by supporting the bi-directional power flow. The limited observability of distribution grids, primarily related to their location at the very edge of power system infrastructure, brings challenges to optimal grid management. Moreover, only a limited number of measurements at regular intervals are usually available. This paper presents a novel inference framework, referred to as “Voltage Inference”, to overcome the observability issues. The proposed framework employs a prediction step based on the Multivariate Taylor series approximation, followed by a corrector step that minimizes the estimation error to infer the otherwise unknown voltages from the available measurements. Furthermore, numerical results on the IEEE 13-bus test feeder validate the accuracy and computational performance of the proposed framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗