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At least 217 records · Page 12

Improving Tornado Casualty Predictions in the US With Population Exposure Data and A Modified Social Vulnerability Index

Tornadoes are frequent and widespread events that often account for hundreds of injuries and fatalities, and millions of dollars in damages. Multiple studies have analyzed tornado climatology and associated exposure; however, fewer have focused on predicting fatalities and injuries by coupling geospatial data on tornado characteristics and underlying social and economic vulnerability. In this study, we test the ability of negative binomial regression models to predict tornado-induced injuries and fatalities by coupling data on physical characteristics of tornadoes, exposure of populations, and underlying social vulnerability. We also present a modified spatially weighted social vulnerability index SVI* wt . We used 10-year (2005-2014) tornado data over the continental United States for this analysis. The results of this study indicate that the tornado length, magnitude and nocturnality seem to be the major hazard-related indicators of fatalities (McFadden’s Pseudo- R 2 ranged from 0.01-0.12). Population exposure and SVI* wt are positive and statistically significant in predicting tornado related fatalities and injuries (Pseudo R 2 of 0.11-0.18). Although combining SVI* wt with hazard variables does not substantially improve model fit when compared to adding population exposure, combining SVI* wt , hazard and exposure results in better predictions of both injuries and fatalities (Pseudo R 2 of 0.17) and is also an improvement on previous similar studies.

disaster↗

Land and Atmosphere Near-Real-Time Capability for Earth Observing System

The past decade has seen a rapid increase in availability and usage of near-real-time data from satellite sensors. The EOSDIS (Earth Observing System Data and Information System) was not originally designed to provide data with sufficiently low latency to satisfy the requirements for near-real-time users. The EOS (Earth Observing System) instruments aboard the Terra, Aqua and Aura satellites make global measurements daily, which are processed into higher-level 'standard' products within 8-40 hours of observation and then made available to users, primarily earth science researchers. However, applications users, operational agencies, and even researchers desire EOS products in near-real-time to support research and applications, including numerical weather and climate prediction and forecasting, monitoring of natural hazards, ecological/invasive species, agriculture, air quality, disaster relief and homeland security. These users often need data much sooner than routine science processing allows, usually within 3 hours, and are willing to trade science product quality for timely access. While Direct Broadcast provides more timely access to data, it does not provide global coverage. In 2002, a joint initiative between NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration), NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), and the DOD (Department of Defense) was undertaken to provide data from EOS instruments in near-real-time. The NRTPE (Near Real Time Processing Effort) provided products within 3 hours of observation on a best-effort basis. As the popularity of these near-real-time products and applications grew, multiple near-real-time systems began to spring up such as the Rapid Response System. In recognizing the dependence of customers on this data and the need for highly reliable and timely data access, NASA's Earth Science Division sponsored the Earth Science Data and Information System Project (ESDIS)-led development of a new near-real-time system called LANCE (Land, Atmosphere Near-Real-Time Capability for EOS) in 2009. LANCE consists of special processing elements, co-located with selected EOSDIS data centers and processing facilities. A primary goal of LANCE is to bring multiple near-real-time systems under one umbrella, offering commonality in data access, quality control, and latency. LANCE now processes and distributes data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer Earth Observing System (AMSR-E), Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) instruments within 3 hours of satellite observation. The Rapid Response System and the Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) capabilities will be incorporated into LANCE in 2011. LANCE maintains a central website to facilitate easy access to data and user services. LANCE products are extensively tested and compared with science products before being made available to users. Each element also plans to implement redundant network, power and server infrastructure to ensure high availability of data and services. Through the user registration system, users are informed of any data outages and when new products or services will be available for access. Building on a significant investment by NASA in developing science algorithms and products, LANCE creates products that have a demonstrated utility for applications requiring near-real-time data. From lower level data products such as calibrated geolocated radiances to higher-level products such as sea ice extent, snow cover, and cloud cover, users have integrated LANCE data into forecast models and decision support systems. The table above shows the current near-real-time product categories by instrument. The ESDIS Project continues to improve the LANCE system and use the experience gained through practice to seek adjustments to improve the quality and performance of the system. For example, anGC-compliant Web Map Service (WMS) will be added shortly that will allow users to download geo-referenced MODIS images for arbitrary bounding boxes. Further, an OGC-compliant Web Coverage Service (WCS) will be added later this year that will expedite user access to arbitrary data subsets or re-formatted products. AIRS images are now served through WMS and available in multiple formats (PNG, GeoTIFF, KMZ). NASA has established a LANCE User Working Group to steer the development of the system and create a forum for sharing ideas and experiences that are expected to further improve the LANCE capabilities. The LANCE system has proved a success by satisfying the growing needs of the applications and operational communities for land and atmosphere data in near-real-time. NASA's Earth Sciences Division was able to leverage existing science research capabilities to provide the near-real-time community with products and imagery that support monitoring of disasters in a timely manner.

Murphy, Kevin J.↗

Eastern Washington Disasters: Integrating NASA Earth Observations to Analyze Spatiotemporal Distributions of Lightning-Caused Wildfires in Eastern Washington

According to the Washington Department of Natural Resources, roughly 36% of large fires in the statesince 2010 were caused by lightning. General trends also show a greater increase in the number of lightning-ignited fires over the last three decades. The NASA DEVELOP Eastern Washington Disasters team partnered with The Nature Conservancy’s Washington Chapter to analyze the relationship between lightning strikes and wildfire events in Eastern Washington, with an emphasis on Kittitas and Yakima Counties. Using the International Space Station Lightning Imaging Sensor, the Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager vegetation moisture index, and Washington Department of Natural Resources historical fire data, the team generated a lightning-caused fire vulnerability index for 2001-2019. Climatology maps of lightning, wildfire, and vegetation moisture of the study area, along with an Esri ArcGIS StoryMap, further communicated project findings. The project results demonstrated that spatiotemporal patterns of lightning-ignited wildfires in Eastern Washington can be useful to inform land management practices and better predict areas that may be more vulnerable to these events.

Disasters↗

Eastern Washington Disasters: Integrating NASA Earth Observations to Analyze Spatiotemporal Distributions of Lightning-Caused Wildfires in Eastern Washington

According to the Washington Department of Natural Resources, roughly 36% of large fires in the state since 2010 were caused by lightning. General trends also show a greater increase in the number of lightning-ignited fires over the last three decades. The NASA DEVELOP Eastern Washington Disasters team partnered with The Nature Conservancy’s Washington Chapter to analyze the relationship between lightning strikes and wildfire events in Eastern Washington, with an emphasis on Kittitas and Yakima Counties. Using the International Space Station Lightning Imaging Sensor, the Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager vegetation moisture index, and Washington Department of Natural Resources historical fire data, the team generated a lightning-caused fire vulnerability index for 2001-2019. Climatology maps of lightning, wildfire, and vegetation moisture of the study area, along with an Esri ArcGIS StoryMap, further communicated project findings. The project results demonstrated that spatiotemporal patterns of lightning-ignited wildfires in Eastern Washington can be useful to inform land management practices and better predict areas that may be more vulnerable to these events.

Disasters↗

International Collaboration in Satellite Observations for Disaster Management

When lives are threatened or lost due to catastrophic disasters, and when massive financial impacts are experienced, international emergency response teams rapidly mobilize to provide urgently required support. Satellite observations of affected areas often provide essential insight into the magnitude and details of the impacts. The large cost and high complexity of developing and operating satellite flight and ground systems encourages international collaboration in acquiring imagery for such significant global events in order to speed delivery of critical information to help those affected, and optimize spectral, spatial, and temporal coverage of the areas of interest. The International Charter-Space and Major Disasters was established to enable such collaboration in sensor tasking during times of crisis and is often activated in response to calls for assistance from authorized users. Insight is provided from a U.S. perspective into sensor support for Charter activations and other disaster events through a description of the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), which has been used to support emergency situations for over a decade through its expedited tasking and near real-time data delivery capabilities. Examples of successes achieved and challenges encountered in international collaboration to develop related systems and fulfill tasking requests suggest operational considerations for new missions as well as areas for future enhancements.

natural hazards↗

Synergistic Use of Nighttime Satellite Data, Electric Utility Infrastructure, and Ambient Population to Improve Power Outage Detections in Urban Areas

Natural and anthropogenic hazards are frequently responsible for disaster events, leading to damaged physical infrastructure, which can result in loss of electrical power for affected locations. Remotely-sensed, nighttime satellite imagery from the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi-NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Day/Night Band (DNB) can monitor power outages in disaster-affected areas through the identification of missing city lights. When combined with locally-relevant geospatial information, these observations can be used to estimate power outages, defined as geographic locations requiring manual intervention to restore power. In this study, we produced a power outage product based on Suomi-NPP VIIRS DNB observations to estimate power outages following Hurricane Sandy in 2012. This product, combined with known power outage data and ambient population estimates, was then used to predict power outages in a layered, feedforward neural network model. We believe this is the first attempt to synergistically combine such data sources to quantitatively estimate power outages. The VIIRS DNB power outage product was able to identify initial loss of light following Hurricane Sandy, as well as the gradual restoration of electrical power. The neural network model predicted power outages with reasonable spatial accuracy, achieving Pearson coefficients (r) between 0.48 and 0.58 across all folds. Our results show promise for producing a continental United States (CONUS)- or global-scale power outage monitoring network using satellite imagery and locally-relevant geospatial data.

da/night band↗

Yesterday’s extremes, today’s new normal: flood risk in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal

Unplanned urban growth has left many cities increasingly vulnerable to extreme rainfall events, particularly in regions with inadequate drainage infrastructures and development encroaching on natural floodplains. Here, in this perspective paper, we examine the September 2024 floods that struck Central Nepal, triggered by a persistent low-pressure system and enhanced by converging moisture flows from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal which led to widespread catastrophic damage. In the Kathmandu Valley, floodwaters expanded to more than 2.5 times the bankfull water extent, causing significant damage to housing, transportation network, and critical infrastructure, displacing thousands of residents, and severely disrupting urban services. This event highlights the urgent need for improved flood management strategies that integrate both structural and non-structural measures into the infrastructure development. While early warning systems provided critical lead time, challenges remain in reducing forecasting uncertainties and improving communication across government agencies and with local communities. A forward-looking approach is essential, including probabilistic flood forecasting systems, sustainable floodplain management, risk-sensitive land use planning, climate- and disaster- resilient infrastructure development, and the integration of nature-based solutions like urban green and blue spaces to mitigate flood impacts. By involving local communities in planning and preparedness efforts, particularly through citizen science initiatives, and engagement with underserved and disadvantaged communities, Nepal can better adapt to the growing risks posed by extreme rainfall and urban flooding and enhance long-term disaster resilience in rapidly urbanizing areas like Kathmandu Valley.

Kathmandu Valley↗

Dam Failure Inundation Map Project

At the end of the first year, we remain on schedule. Property owners were identified and contacted for land access purposes. A prototype software package has been completed and was demonstrated to the Division of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR), National Weather Service (NWS) and Pacific Disaster Center (PDC). A field crew gathered data and surveyed the areas surrounding two dams in Waimea. (A field report is included in the annual report.) Data sensitivity analysis was initiated and completed. A user's manual has been completed. Beta testing of the software was initiated, but not completed. The initial TNK and property owner data collection for the additional test sites on Oahu and Kauai have been initiated.

Johnson, Carl↗

Assessing the impact of climate change on rainfall-triggered landslides: a case study in California

Landslides are widespread natural hazards which take a heavy toll on lives, property, and infrastructure each year. In January 2023 and 2024, widespread landslides occurred in California as a result of extreme winter precipitation. Estimating the regional evolution of landslide hazard in a changing climate is essential for adaptation planning and risk mitigation efforts. The complex effects of climate change on landslide hazard, however, are poorly understood. Here, we use climate and landslide observations to develop a novel data-driven approach for landslide susceptibility assessment under historical and future climate conditions. We apply this framework to investigate the evolution of landslide susceptibility in California and its impacts on the roadway system based on downscaled climate projections under moderate and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. On average, the results indicate an increase in landslide susceptibility through 2100 in regions where historical susceptibility is moderate to very high. Although the spatio-temporal variations in landslide susceptibility are sensitive to climate model uncertainties in predicting extreme rainfall, the direst impacts are largely circumvented in lower emission scenarios.

Climate Change↗

Spacecraft design sensitivity for a disaster warning satellite system

A disaster warning satellite (DWS) is described for warning the general public of impending natural catastrophes. The concept is responsive to NOAA requirements and maximizes the use of ATS-6 technology. Upon completion of concept development, the study was extended to establishing the sensitivity of the DWSS spacecraft power, weight, and cost to variations in both warning and conventional communications functions. The results of this sensitivity analysis are presented.

Maloy, J. E.↗

Curb Mounting, Vertical Mobility, and Inverted Mobility on Rough Surfaces Using Microspine-Enabled Robots

Three robots that extend microspine technology to enable advanced mobility are presented. First, the Durable Reconnaissance and Observation Platform (DROP) and the ReconRobotics Scout platform use a new rotary configuration of microspines to provide improved soldier-portable reconnaissance by moving rapidly over curbs and obstacles, transitioning from horizontal to vertical surfaces, climbing rough walls and surviving impacts. Next, the four-legged LEMUR robot uses new configurations of opposed microspines to anchor to both manmade and natural rough surfaces. Using these anchors as feet enables mobility in unstructured environments, from urban disaster areas to deserts and caves.

microspines↗

The Era of International Space Station Research: Discoveries and Potential of an Unprecedented Laboratory in Space

The assembly of the International Space Station was completed in early 2011. Its largest research instrument, the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer is planned for launch in late April. Unlike any previous laboratory in space, the ISS offers a long term platform where scientists can operate experiments rapidly after developing a new research question, and extend their experiments based on early results. This presentation will explain why having a laboratory in orbit is important for a wide variety of experiments that cannot be done on Earth. Some of the most important results from early experiments are already having impacts in areas such as health care, telemedicine, and disaster response. The coming decade of full utilization offers the promise of new understanding of the nature of physical and biological processes and even of matter itself.

Robinson, Julie A.↗

Dissemination of Global Flood Severity and Surface Water Mapping using Remote Sensing Data to Global Stakeholders

Flooding is a natural event that occurs frequently with high severity worldwide, responsible for significant societal and economic impacts. Disaster managers face significant challenges managing essential information for preparedness, response, and recovery efforts. The development of an open access, global flood alerting system for effective identification of flood impacted areas, classification of potential impacts, and the formulation of effective emergency response measures requires the incorporation of a wide variety of flood models and remote sensing data sources from multiple platforms. NASA is currently funding projects focused on flood forecasting, post-event flood mapping, flood depth estimation and pre-event flood severity estimation using Earth observation (EO) datasets and derived flood products. A new initiative in the Disasters Program is underway to disseminate flood products from different hydrologic models and sensors to global stakeholders via Pacific Disaster Center’s DisasterAWARE®, NASA’s Disasters Mapping Portal and potentially other mechanisms. This initiative focuses on improving response capacity and use of EO products in near real-time by a broader community for resource planning in case of extreme events. As part of this initiative, we have deployed Model of Models (MoM) – an open-source ensemble approach, that integrates outputs from hydrologic models and EO data from optical imagery to assess flood severity daily at sub-watershed level globally. The MoM output is integrated with the incident event system of DisasterAWARE to generate flood severity risk and flood impact boundaries, which are disseminated via the DisasterAWARE platform to different stakeholders globally for decision-making and response efforts. The next step will focus on using MoM outputs to estimate flood depth and extent mapping using high-resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar imagery, impact assessment using optical imagery and population datasets, and damage estimation using critical infrastructure datasets, which would be disseminated via DisasterAWARE to decision-makers, emergency managers and first responders around the world.

flood↗

Estimating Critical Customer Outages Resulting from Extreme Hurricanes

US power outage data has been collected by organizations such as Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) through Environment for Analysis Geo-Located Energy Infrastructure (EAGLE-I: freely available) and poweroutage.us (commercial data: available to purchase). However, these sources do not provide information specific to outages of critical customers. Critical customers include entities, facilities, and individuals whose continuous access to electricity is essential for public safety, emergency response, disaster recovery, the well-being of vulnerable populations, public safety and order, and public utilities such as natural gas, communications, water and sanitation. Identification and geolocation of critical customers is crucial for understanding and addressing the effects of power outages on essential services and ensuring that necessary measures are taken to maintain their operations during power disruptions. This work is a first step towards estimating the occurrences of critical customer outages and developing a critical customer power outage data repository. This work estimates outage incidents of critical customers through spatiotemporal mapping of power outage data, weather data, building data, and critical infrastructure network data. Our results show that critical customer effects vary across different counties. We provide appropriate mathematical explanations and simplifications to define and systematize the proposed approach.

Bhusal, Narayan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000222752145)↗

Rapid, Repeat-sample Monitoring of Crustal Deformations and Environmental Phenomena with the Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar

The Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR) is a precision repeat-pass Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) mission being developed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the Dryden Flight Research Center in support of NASA s Science Mission Directorate. UAVSAR's unique ability to fly a repeatable flight path, along with an electronically steerable array, allows interferometric data to be obtained with accuracies measured in millimeters. Deploying the radar on an airborne platform will also allow for radar images to be collected and compared with images from the same area taken hours or even years later - providing for long-term trending and near real-time notification of changes and deformations. UAVSAR s data processing algorithms will provide for near-real time data reduction providing disaster planning and response teams with highly accurate data to aid in the prediction of, and response to, natural phenomena. UAVSAR data can be applied to increasing our understanding of the processes behind solid earth, cryosphere, carbon cycle and other areas of interest in earth science. Technologies developed for UAVSAR may also be applicable to a future earth-orbiting InSAR mission and possibly for missions to the Moon or Mars. The UAVSAR is expected to fly on a Gulfstream III aircraft this winter, followed by a flight test program lasting until the second half of 2007. Following radar calibration and data reduction activities, the platform will be ready for science users in the summer of 2008.

Smith, Robert C.↗

BILLIARDS: A Demonstration Mission for Hundred-Meter Class Near-Earth Asteroid Disruption

Collisions from near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) have the potential to cause widespread harm to life on Earth. The hypervelocity nature of these collisions means that a relatively small asteroid (about a quartermile in diameter) could cause a global disaster. Proposed strategies for deflecting or disrupting such a threatening asteroid include detonation of a nuclear explosive device (NED) in close proximity to the asteroid, as well as intercepting the asteroid with a hypervelocity kinetic impactor. NEDs allow for the delivery of large amounts of energy to a NEA for a given mass launched from the Earth, but have not yet been developed or tested for use in deep space. They also present safety and political complications, and therefore may only be used when absolutely necessary. Kinetic impactors require a relatively simple spacecraft compared to NEDs, but also deliver a much lower energy for a given launch mass. To date, no demonstration mission has been conducted for either case, and such a demonstration mission must be conducted prior to the need to utilize them during an actual scenario to ensure that an established, proven system is available for planetary defense when the need arises. One method that has been proposed to deliver a kinetic impactor with impact energy approaching that of an NED is the "billiard-ball" approach. This approach would involve capturing an asteroid approximately ten meters in diameter with a relatively small spacecraft (compared to the launch mass of an equivalent direct kinetic impactor), and redirecting it into the path of an Earth-threatening asteroid. This would cause an impact which would disrupt the Earth-threatening asteroid or deflect it from its Earth-crossing trajectory. The BILLIARDS Project seeks to perform a demonstration of this mission concept in order to establish a protocol that can be used in the event of an impending Earth/asteroid collision. In order to accomplish this objective, the mission must (1) rendezvous with a small (less than 10m), NEA (hereinafter "Alpha"), (2) maneuver Alpha to a collision with a approx. 100 m NEA (hereinafter "Beta"), and (3) produce a detectable deflection or disruption of Beta. In addition to these primary objectives, the BILLIARDS project will contribute to the scientific understanding of the physical properties and collision dynamics of asteroids, and provide opportunities for international collaboration.

Asteroid↗

Anticipating the reaction: public concern about sample return missions

Shifts in public attitude that may affect extraterrestrial sample return include increased public participation in the legal and regulatory environment, institutionalized public vigilance, politicization of technological debates and shifts in the nature of public decision-making, and a risk-averse public accustomed to mass media coverage that focuses on hazards and disasters. The ice-minus recombinant DNA experiment is used as an example of the effects of public opinion on scientific experimentation.

NASA Center ARC↗

Analysing the Advantages of High Temporal Resolution Geostationary MSG SEVIRI Data Compared to Polar Operational Environmental Satellite Data for Land Surface Monitoring in Africa

Since 1972, satellite remote sensing of the environment has been dominated by polar-orbiting sensors providing useful data for monitoring the earth s natural resources. However their observation and monitoring capacity are inhibited by daily to monthly looks for any given ground surface which often is obscured by frequent and persistent cloud cover creating large gaps in time series measurements. The launch of the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite into geostationary orbit has opened new opportunities for land surface monitoring. The Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) instrument on-board MSG with an imaging capability every 15 minutes which is substantially greater than any temporal resolution that can be obtained from existing polar operational environmental satellites (POES) systems currently in use for environmental monitoring. Different areas of the African continent were affected by droughts and floods in 2008 caused by periods of abnormally low and high rainfall, respectively. Based on the effectiveness of monitoring these events from Earth Observation (EO) data the current analyses show that the new generation of geostationary remote sensing data can provide higher temporal resolution cloud-free (less than 5 days) measurements of the environment as compared to existing POES systems. SEVIRI MSG 5-day continental scale composites will enable rapid assessment of environmental conditions and improved early warning of disasters for the African continent such as flooding or droughts. The high temporal resolution geostationary data will complement existing higher spatial resolution polar-orbiting satellite data for various dynamic environmental and natural resource applications of terrestrial ecosystems.

Fensholt, R.↗