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At least 217 records · Page 12

Adapting Traditional Hazards Analysis Methods to Address Cyber Risks

Traditional hazards analysis (HA) methods, originally developed to address physical and operational risks, often fall short when it comes to identifying and mitigating cyber threats. These cyber threats pose unique and evolving risks to critical infrastructure and industrial control systems (ICS). This report explores the integration of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) principles into existing HA methods to enhance their ability to address cyber-induced risks. CIE provides organizations with a practical, cost-effective approach to closing the gap between traditional HA methods and the need for cyber risk mitigation. By leveraging existing safety processes and controls, CIE allows users to examine and mitigate cyber vulnerabilities without overhauling existing HA methods. This report identifies areas where HA and CIE naturally align and where their approaches diverge. It emphasizes how CIE principles can be used to adapt HA methods, broadening their scope to include cyber risks and enabling the mitigation of cyber- induced impacts alongside traditional hazards and failure scenarios. This report examines how CIE can be applied across various HA methods—such as Hazard and Operability Studies (HAZOP), Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), Hazard and Consequence Analysis for Digital Systems (HAZCADS), and Layers of Protection Analysis (LOPA). It provides strategies for integrating CIE to strengthen the identification, assessment, and mitigation of cyber-induced risks. The findings offer a structured entry point for organizations to embed CIE concepts into hazards and safety analyses, as well as broader engineering processes, ultimately supporting the design and operation of a more resilient infrastructure.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Adapting Traditional Hazards Analysis Methods to Address Cyber Risks

Traditional hazards analysis (HA) methods, originally developed to address physical and operational risks, often fall short when it comes to identifying and mitigating cyber threats. These cyber threats pose unique and evolving risks to critical infrastructure and industrial control systems (ICS). This report explores the integration of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) principles into existing HA methods to enhance their ability to address cyber-induced risks. CIE provides organizations with a practical, cost-effective approach to closing the gap between traditional HA methods and the need for cyber risk mitigation. By leveraging existing safety processes and controls, CIE allows users to examine and mitigate cyber vulnerabilities without overhauling existing HA methods. This report identifies areas where HA and CIE naturally align and where their approaches diverge. It emphasizes how CIE principles can be used to adapt HA methods, broadening their scope to include cyber risks and enabling the mitigation of cyber- induced impacts alongside traditional hazards and failure scenarios. This report examines how CIE can be applied across various HA methods—such as Hazard and Operability Studies (HAZOP), Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), Hazard and Consequence Analysis for Digital Systems (HAZCADS), and Layers of Protection Analysis (LOPA). It provides strategies for integrating CIE to strengthen the identification, assessment, and mitigation of cyber-induced risks. The findings offer a structured entry point for organizations to embed CIE concepts into hazards and safety analyses, as well as broader engineering processes, ultimately supporting the design and operation of a more resilient infrastructure.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

A Comparison of RESRAD and GoldSim Models for Assessing Radiological Dose for a RCRA Landfill - 20418

US Ecology Idaho (USEI) operates a Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Subtitle C, Hazardous Waste Treatment, Storage, and Disposal (TSD) Facility on a 640-acre property in Owyhee County, Idaho. USEI accepts a wide variety of RCRA-exempt low activity radioactive wastes, including naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM) and technologically enhanced NORM (TENORM) (USEI 2009). The performance of the landfill with regard to radiological operating permit requirements was previously assessed using a model constructed with the residual radioactivity (RESRAD) computer program, developed by Argonne National Laboratory for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). RESRAD supports the evaluation of several environmental transport pathways related to a radionuclide-contaminated soil source term, but it was not conceived as a model for the evaluation of landfill radiological performance. A more comprehensive and realistic model is desired in order to better support submissions to both the State of Idaho's Department of Environmental Quality as well as the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. A Performance Assessment (PA) computer model was developed using GoldSim software for the USEI RCRA Subtitle C landfill. The RESRAD computer model was specifically developed for calculating soil cleanup criteria and radiological dose and cancer risk from residual radioactive material in soil. To evaluate site-specific conditions, users may select from among a number of available environmental transport and exposure pathways and modify 'default' parameter values. In GoldSim, a user must construct the model 'from scratch.' However, this modeling is facilitated by a number of specialized elements available in GoldSim to support a radiological mass transport model. These include elements for defining radiological decay and ingrowth, container failure and radiological release, advective and diffusive transport, and other processes. Advantages afforded by the use of RESRAD for modeling radiological dose for a RCRA Subtitle C landfill include ease of use and reasonable flexibility in specifying site-specific conditions. GoldSim allows for considerably more flexibility and site-specificity than RESRAD, including evaluation of potentially relevant environmental transport processes not supported in RESRAD. The probabilistic modeling capabilities of GoldSim also far exceed those of RESRAD. The pros and cons of RESRAD and GoldSim for this modeling problem are explored with a focus on identifying approaches and critical factors in identifying the appropriate platform. The capabilities of RESRAD and GoldSim for mathematically modeling the disposal system will be contrasted and compared. For example, the existing RESRAD radiological safety assessment evaluated potentially complete exposure pathways related to infiltration to groundwater and upwards diffusion of radon. Additional transport pathways identified in the USEI Idaho facility Conceptual Site Model include deposition of radon decay products in cover material, root uptake of radionuclides in disposed wastes by native plants, and mixing of cover material by burrowing animals. Results of the two models and how the different transport and dose pathways affect results will be discussed. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

The hazard components of representative key risks. The physical climate perspective

The framework of Representative Key Risks (RKRs) has been adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II in order to categorize, assess and communicate a wide range of regional and sectoral key risks, expected to become severe as a consequence of the potentially detrimental convergence of changing climate conditions, exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems, and responses through (mal)adaptation measures. Other papers in this special issue treat each of eight RKRs by holistically assessing their current status and future evolution as a result of this convergence. However, their treatment cannot always organize such assessment according to a systematic gradation of climatic changes, often times having to extrapolate the big-picture evolution of risk from either qualitative effects of “low” medium” and “high” warming, or limited/focused analysis of the consequences of particular mitigation choices (e.g., benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2C). In this study we offer as systematic a representation as possible – given current literature and assessments – of the future evolution of the hazard components of RKRs. We draw on the assessment of changes in climatic impact-drivers relevant to RKRs described in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group 1 (WGI) supplemented when needed by more recent literature. We identify the relevant hazards for each RKR, based upon the WGII authors’ assessment, and we report on their current state and expected future changes in magnitude, intensity and/or frequency, linking these changes to Global Warming Levels to the extent possible. For some of these quantities - like regional trends in oceanic and atmospheric temperature and precipitation, some heat and precipitation extremes, permafrost thaw and Northern Hemisphere snow cover - a strong and quantitative relationship with global average temperature change has been assessed. For others - like frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and extra-tropical storms, and fire weather - the link to increasing global temperatures can only be described qualitatively. For some processes - like the behavior of ice-sheets, or changes in circulation dynamics - large uncertainties about the effects of different levels of warming remain, and for a few others - like ocean pH and air pollution - the composition of the scenario of anthropogenic emissions is most relevant, rather than the warming reached. In almost all cases, however, the basic message remains that every small increment in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and associated warming will bring changes in climate phenomena that will contribute to increasing risk of impacts on human and natural systems when these changes happen in conjunction with these systems’ conditions of exposure and vulnerability, and in lack of effective adaptation. Our picture of the evolution of RKR-relevant climatic impact-drivers complements and enriches the treatment of RKRs in the other papers in at least two ways: by filling in an often only cursory or limited representation of the physical climate aspects driving impacts, and by providing a fuller representation of their future possible evolution which represents an important component – if never the only one – of the potential future evolution of risk severity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating indoor thermal resilience of passive and low-power cooling shelters for outdoor workers in India

India’s 231 million outdoor workers are exposed to deadly heat during heat waves. We report results from a simulation-based study that focuses on passive design of cooling shelters for the hot and dry climate zone of India. The goal is to design a cooler-than-outdoor shelter for outdoor workers’ intermittent rest and recovery from heat stress during their arduous outdoor work, to avoid heat-related morbidities and mortality. Expected indoor thermal conditions in low-cost cooling shelters deploying a range of passive designs and low-power active measures are investigated, consistent with the current Indian standards and practices, located in the city of Jodhpur in western India. Heat resilience of the shelter was measured with the predicted reduction of hazardous hours inside the shelter based on the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) and extended heat index. These measures include improving the building envelope, installing cool roofs, using internal thermal mass, and natural ventilation. Additionally, a low-power active measure of using ventilation fans and ceiling fans is explored. EnergyPlus-based simulation results show that simple, commonly available measures, particularly natural ventilation and ceiling fans, achieve the most significant reductions in overheating danger hours, by 22% and 21%, respectively, while more complex or costly passive strategies yield only marginal additional benefits. Moreover, combined measure packages are identified that can reduce the indoor WBGT by 8 to 10 °C, eliminating overheating danger hours. These findings highlight the critical importance of scalable, low-cost, and easily deployable cooling solutions for developing resilient cooling shelters for vulnerable outdoor workers during heat waves in India.

building performance↗

Oil and Natural Gas Development near and beneath Uranium Tailings Cells and Other Remediated Sites - 20358

DOE LM is responsible for maintaining remedies at more than 50 remediated sites that require active long-term surveillance and maintenance (LTS and M). Institutional controls (ICs) were established to limit human and environmental exposures to residual contamination by controlling land use, restricting access to potential hazards, and making the public aware of potential dangers from the residual contamination. ICs for each site were developed based on current and foreseeable conditions; however, these controls should evolve to mitigate potential human health and other environmental risks from unanticipated changes in activities or site conditions. Activities conducted beyond the DOE long-term care boundaries by non-DOE parties may impact the effectiveness of ICs or even the long-term stability of disposal cells and groundwater remedies. Several sites that LM manages or that will transfer to LM for LTS and M are in active oil and gas production basins. The sites are associated with uranium ore milling or nuclear test sites and have been remediated or are in the process of remediation and have no ongoing DOE mission. Particularly since 2005, hydraulic fracturing ('fracking') combined with directional drilling has dramatically increased oil and natural gas (oil/gas) production in the United States, now making it the number one hydrocarbon-producing country. Fracking has allowed production from shale and other rocks of low natural permeability that were historically not considered viable oil/gas resources. Also, because wellbores can now be drilled as many as 5 kilometers or more horizontally, hydrocarbons can be recovered from zones without having access to the surface above them. Drilling activity near Rulison, Colorado, the location of an underground nuclear detonation managed by LM, has raised public concerns that remnant radioactivity in the detonation zone could migrate to producing wells and enter the natural gas distribution system. At sites like the Falls City, Texas, Disposal site, transitioned to LM with a split estate, increased production in the region has resulted in wellbores beneath the long-term care boundary of the site. While the DOE license for Falls City was approved by the NRC in 1997 without the acquisition of the subsurface rights, NRC has raised concerns on whether this activity impacts the integrity of the cell and/or groundwater remedies. In Wyoming, LM is anticipating receiving the license for the Bear Creek site and manages the Spook site, both locations of uranium mill tailings disposal cells. These Wyoming sites are in an active region of major oil and gas development. This change in surrounding land use will require LM to work collaboratively with NRC to address these concerns. At several DOE sites radioactive waste, and often intermixed nonradioactive constituents, is permanently isolated in engineered disposal cells. At other sites, residual contamination can be present in groundwater, blast cavities, and infinite amounts within soil. Areas targeted for oil and gas development at the Texas and Wyoming sites range from depths of 2440 to 3350 meters (8000-11000 feet) below ground surface. When most site remedies were designed, oil and gas development was not considered to be an issue within the site boundary. With the more recent uses of directional drilling, fracking, and associated wastewater injections, the evaluative criteria for incoming sites and ICs for managing long-term protectiveness and regulatory compliance are changing. Although DOE surface ownership was previously thought to be a robust IC to prevent surface and subsurface development, particularly at disposal sites, that may no longer be the case. Whereas the subsurface development at Texas and Wyoming sites is currently occurring at thousands of meters beneath the surface, shallower and direct onsite development would be more of a concern for LM. The energy introduced when a well is hydraulically fractured causes microseismic events (magnitude -2 to 1.0) as the fractures propagate but does not directly cause seismic events (earthquakes) of sufficient magnitude to damage surface structures. Additionally, the extent of the hydraulic fractures is limited to the targeted depths, which are far below the surface. However, earthquakes of sufficient magnitude to damage surface structures have been attributed to the injection of wastewater into disposal wells. States that have experienced these effects have enacted regulations that limit the rate and pressures that wastewater can be injected into disposal wells. Items LM may consider are the need for monitoring the volume of water injected into nearby disposal wells and possibly installing seismic stations at sites most susceptible to damage. While the need to demonstrate that no impact from oil and gas extraction activities on a site groundwater remedy or disposal cells will vary from site to site, LM is assessing risk criteria for this activity. Though LM has not experienced an issue yet at a uranium tailings disposal site, it cannot assume that there will be none, and must address NRC concerns. LM is building on past experiences at other sites and beginning to form new processes with the hope that these concepts can be applied for other future sites. (authors)

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

The Cross-sectional and Longitudinal Association Between Thyroid Function and Depression: A Population-Based Study

Abstract Context An association of thyroid function with mood disorders has been widely suggested, but very few studies have examined this association longitudinally. Objective We assessed the cross-sectional and longitudinal association between thyroid function and depression in a population-based cohort. Methods A total of 9471 individuals were included in cross-sectional analyses, of whom 8366 had longitudinal data. At baseline, we assessed thyroid function using serum samples (thyrotropin [TSH], free thyroxine (FT4), and thyroid peroxidase antibodies) and depressive symptoms using the Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression (CES-D) scale. Incident depressive events (n = 1366) were continuously followed up with the CES-D and clinical interviews. We analyzed the cross-sectional association of thyroid function and thyroid disease with depressive symptoms using linear and logistic regression, and the longitudinal association with Cox proportional hazard models for depressive events. Results Lower TSH levels and lower and higher FT4 levels were cross-sectionally associated with more depressive symptoms with a B value of −0.07 per 1 unit increase of natural log-transformed TSH (95% CI −0.11; −0.04). Furthermore, hypothyroidism was cross-sectionally associated with less depressive symptoms and hyperthyroidism with more depressive symptoms. Longitudinally, there was a U-shaped association between FT4 and incident depressive events but only in euthyroid participants. Conclusion We show a cross-sectional association between thyroid (dys)function with depressive symptoms, and a U-shaped association between FT4 and incident depressive events in euthyroid individuals. Our findings suggest an association of thyroid function with the risk of developing depression, albeit small. Reverse causation and additional underlying factors may also contribute to the association.

Roa Dueñas, Oscar Hernando (ORCID:0000000207522261↗

Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles in Tunnels

There are numerous vehicles which utilize alternative fuels, or fuels that differ from typical hydrocarbons such as gasoline and diesel, throughout the world. Alternative vehicles include those running on the combustion of natural gas and propane as well as electrical drive vehicles utilizing batteries or hydrogen as energy storage. Because the number of alternative fuels vehicles is expected to increase significantly, it is important to analyze the hazards and risks involved with these new technologies with respect to the regulations related to specific transport infrastructure, such as bridges and tunnels. This report focuses on hazards presented by hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles that are different from traditional fuels. There are numerous scientific research and analysis publications on hydrogen hazards in tunnel scenarios; however, compiling the data to make conclusions can be a difficult process for tunnel owners and authorities having jurisdiction over tunnels. This report provides a summary of the available literature characterizing hazards presented by hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles, including light-duty, medium and heavy-duty, as well as buses. Research characterizing both worst-case and credible scenarios, as well as risk-based analysis, is summarized. Gaps in the research are identified to guide future research efforts to provide a complete analysis of the hazards and recommendations for the safe use of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles in tunnels.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Cadmium-Free QD Building Blocks for Human Centric Lighting

This project developed Cd-free quantum dot (QD) downconverters for efficacious human-centric lighting (HCL) light emitting diode (LED) devices. Solid state HCL devices address the lack of light in the cyan wavelength region (460-490 nm) in white LEDs by enhancing the melanopic daylight efficacy ratio (MDER) value. MDER is a metric that indicates the degree to which artificial lighting stimulates nonvisual biological processes in the retina responsible for regulating circadian rhythms compared with natural lighting. The peak sensitivity of melanopsin in the retina is at 479 nm, therefore artificial lighting which can fill the well-known “cyan gap” may improve human health. Due to the Restriction of Hazardous Substances (RoHS) regulations, cadmium-free core/shell/shell QDs are the primary targets for low toxicity, tunable downconverters. Cyan- and red-emitting core/shell/shell QDs were implemented in LED devices toward achieving a brightness of 210 lm/W at 4000 K, CRI 90, and MDER > 0.7. Synthetic development of Cd-free materials yielded cyan InP/ZnS QDs with a photoluminescence quantum yield (PLQY) of ~60% between 480-490 nm, and red InP/ZnSe/(ZnSeS)/ZnS QDs reaching ~80% PLQY at 620-630 nm. We successfully demonstrated that the inclusion of cyan QDs increased the MDER value to ≥0.7, but the brightness of the HCL LED devices was hindered due to low PLQY values. However, upon substitution of the Cd-free cyan QD with a low-Cd QD with >90% PLQY, brightness improved by 25% over the Cd-free device to 179 lm/W. Despite the technical obstacles remaining toward improving emission characteristics and stability of QDs under high flux, we have confirmed the promise of narrow, tunable QD emitters in SSL packages toward the goal of healthy, human-centric lighting.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Variable Resource Resilience: How Systems Experience Increased Resilience from Variable and Hybrid Resources

Variable resources like wind and solar are often seen as detriments to system resilience rather than benefits because they may not be available with the capacities or services required during a high-impact low-frequency (HILF) event, whether that is a physical threat, natural disaster, or cyber attack. However, resilience goals and metrics are inadequate for electric energy delivery systems with inverter-based resources. Examination of this topic reveals that renewable resources are well suited to combat many resilience hazards due to local resource availability. Metrics that demonstrate the resilience value of variable resources are presented and categorized for resource (wind, solar, storage, hybrid) and installation type (bulk utility scale, behind-the-meter, front-of-the-meter, isolated). Distributed and hybrid systems can further enhance resilience benefits my maximizing resource potential for a locality. A case study demonstrating quantitative resilience benefits from wind alone is provided for St. Mary's, AK, which concludes that hundreds of thousands of dollars are saved by the addition of a wind turbine in the face of realistic fuel shortage and extreme winter weather scenarios.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

An Evaluation of Recent Events Involving Hazardous Energy at INL Facilities

Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Facilities and Site Services (F&SS) has experienced 14 reportable events relating to work performed under lockout / tagout (LOTO) during the period of March 4, 2019 through August 18, 2020. The 14 events are described in Appendix A and were numerous enough and similar enough in nature to be indicative of an adverse trend that warranted further evaluation. A qualified cause analyst was assigned to lead a team in the review of these non-compliances, to determine commonalities, and to provide recommendations to the sponsoring organization. The team focused on both individual and institutional behaviors as well as the LOTO process and procedure. The non-compliances were reported in the Department of Energy (DOE) Occurrence Reporting and Processing System (ORPS) and/or the INL issues tracking system.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Correction to: Investigating the rheology of fluidized and non-fluidized gas-particle beds: implications for the dynamics of geophysical flows and substrate entrainment

We report natural geophysical mass flows are among the most complex granular systems and their dynamics are often modified by the presence of an interstitial fluid. Prediction of their runout requires the development of models estimating the solid stresses in these hazardous currents wherein excess pore-fluid pressure can develop. We use discrete element modelling (DEM-CFD) with a Coarse-Graining post-processing technique (CG) to investigate the rheology of unsteady gas-particle fluidized to non-fluidized granular beds placed on horizontal and inclined planes. Similar to fluidized beds immersed in viscous fluids, the effective friction coefficient of air-fluidized beds can be defined as a function of the classic μ(I)-rheology and the non-dimensional fluid or solid pressure to explain the failure and dynamics of granular flows with excess pore pressure on inclines. However, dilation imposed by fluid drag and particle collisions in gas-particle fluidized beds can drastically change its effective frictional properties. In contrast with the common assumption in water-particle flows that granular temperature is negligible, in our gas-particle simulations, the contribution of the velocity fluctuations to the stress tensor is significant. Hence, the shear stress is found to be non-zero even when the flow is fully fluidized in the inertial regime. These results suggest the need to better understand velocity fluctuations to predict the effective viscosity of sheared fluidized mixtures and are relevant for many applications. Notably, a unified approach is useful for many geophysical flows that encompass a range of fluidization conditions in a single flow such as pyroclastic density currents and snow avalanches.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Impact of UV-light and pH on the Fate of Tc, I, and U in Wetlands at Savannah River Site - 20230

The Savannah River Site (SRS) is one of the major nuclear facilities owned by the U.S Department of Energy. During the Cold War, these facilities produced large amounts of radioactive and hazardous waste. On site, three unlined seepage basins in the F-Area received approximately 1.8 billion gallons of low-level waste containing nitric acid, radionuclides, and dissolved metals due to plutonium and tritium production operations. The acidic nature of the waste created a source of relatively mobile radionuclides below the basins. Radionuclides previously disposed of within the F-Area, including uranium isotopes (U), technetium-99 (Tc-99), and iodine-129 (I-129), are moving with groundwater towards Four Mile Branch Wetland, where they are subsequently upwelling and interacting with natural organic matter (NOM). Many environmental factors including redox conditions, porewater composition, pH, light, and temperature affect the degradation of organic matter as well as interactions with Tc-99, U, and I-129. In particular, the high concentrations of nitrate from the acidic waste may increase the formation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) that impact both degradation of NOM and behavior of contaminants. In the presence of sunlight, I-129, Tc-99, and U speciation and complexation behavior may be affected by ROS and NOM degradation products in addition to the factors generally considered in subsurface systems in the absence of light. This research aims to determine whether the interactions between radionuclides, NOM, and nitrate affect the fate of I-129, Tc-99, and U and which processes are controlling their behavior. Experiments were conducted at variable pH in the presence of NaNO{sub 3} in order to determine the impact of light and pH on NOM degradation and to evaluate the impact on the fate of contaminants of concern. Soil samples high in NOM collected from two sites in the Southeastern United States (Savannah River Site and the Everglades) were studied. Batch experiments were conducted with NOM and the following aqueous contaminants, U, I-129, Tc-99 with exposure to ultraviolet (UV) light in an environmental chamber. This study was conducted in a sterile environment in order to exclude the potential for microbial degradation of organic matter. Results indicated photodegradation of NOM and significant interaction of radionuclides with NOM. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Root Cause Correlation Analysis of Software Failures via Orthogonal Defect Classification and Natural Language Processing

Systems theoretic process analysis (STPA) is becoming an increasingly popular technique to assess how complex digital software systems can fail. Rather than defining failures by their observable failure events, which may be sparse especially for safety rated nuclear digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C), failures are defined as postulated unsafe actions under specific contextual conditions. This permits a top-down analysis of system hazards and identifies whether imposed constraints and requirements can sufficiently address undesirable hazards. However, STPA is a qualitative approach at identifying inadequacies in the development process and cannot currently be used to quantify unsafe action likelihoods for probabilistic risk assessment. Therefore, in this work, we examine the root causes of software failure and explore whether a consistent correlation can be linked to specific unsafe action classes. We implement Lbl2Vec, an unsupervised document classification and retrieval algorithm, on a database of 4,096 software defect reports acquired from various open-source software systems. By analyzing sentence structure, embedded labels, and word vectors, we show that certain defect types positively correlate to specific unsafe action classes over others. The correlations developed can be used to estimate the failure probability of safety intended DI&C systems which provides a licensing basis for nuclear plant modernization efforts.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Root Cause Correlation Analysis of Software Failures via Orthogonal Defect Classification and Natural Language Processing

Systems theoretic process analysis (STPA) is becoming an increasingly popular technique to assess how complex digital software systems can fail. Rather than defining failures by their observable failure events, which may be sparse especially for safety rated nuclear digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C), failures are defined as postulated unsafe actions under specific contextual conditions. This permits a top-down analysis of system hazards and identifies whether imposed constraints and requirements can sufficiently address undesirable hazards. However, STPA is a qualitative approach at identifying inadequacies in the development process and cannot currently be used to quantify unsafe action likelihoods for probabilistic risk assessment. Therefore, in this work, we examine the root causes of software failure and explore whether a consistent correlation can be linked to specific unsafe action classes. We implement Lbl2Vec, an unsupervised document classification and retrieval algorithm, on a database of 4,096 software defect reports acquired from various open-source software systems. By analyzing sentence structure, embedded labels, and word vectors, we show that certain defect types positively correlate to specific unsafe action classes over others. The correlations developed can be used to estimate the failure probability of safety intended DI&C systems which provides a licensing basis for nuclear plant modernization efforts.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Ambient field seismology in critical zone hydrological sciences

Passive ambient noise monitoring is an emerging tool in environmental seismology, leveraging the ambient seismic field to assess temporal variations in shallow subsurface properties. This review focuses on the potential and challenges of using scattered coda waves from noise correlation functions to monitor critical zone dynamics. The sensitivity of seismic velocities to various environmental factors, including precipitation, snowmelt, atmospheric pressure, and groundwater fluctuations, underscores the method’s versatility. While coda waves excel in detecting subtle changes due to their scattered nature, ballistic waves provide higher spatial resolution, albeit with challenges in source stability. Advances in seismic sensing, including distributed acoustic sensing and low-cost geophone networks, have enabled high-resolution monitoring of hydrological processes, subsurface deformation, and seismic hazards. Integrating seismic data with hydrological models provides insights into water storage, pore pressure changes, and soil moisture dynamics. However, limitations in spatial resolution, calibration with ground truth data, and coupled effects between environmental factors remain key challenges. This review emphasizes the importance of interdisciplinary approaches in refining methodologies, enhancing sensor deployments, and addressing data gaps. Passive seismic monitoring offers opportunities to understand critical zone processes and their broader impacts on seismic hazards and environmental sustainability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Science Area 1: Standard Award: Model-Data Fusion to Examine Multiscale Dynamical Controls on Snow Cover and Critical Zone Moisture Inputs (Final Report)

In many mountain watersheds of the world, seasonal snowpacks play an important role as natural reservoirs of water. Seasonal snowpacks accumulate water during cold, wet winter months that subsequently melts. Downstream communities depend on water from melting seasonal snowpacks to support agricultural, industrial, and municipal water needs. Rapidly melting snowpacks can also present a flooding hazard, particularly if snowpacks melt at rates faster than anticipated and where adequate reservoir capacity is unavailable to buffer river flows associated with melt. The spatial and temporal dynamics of snow accumulation and melt also play an important role in supporting upland ecosystems in mountain landscapes. Snowmelt provides soil moisture that enable terrestrial ecosystem productivity and exert control on soil microorganisms that play important roles in global carbon cycles. Climate warming is gradually decreasing the amount of precipitation in mountain watersheds arriving as snow, presenting potentially profound disruptions to mountain ecosystems, as well as downstream delivery of water. The overarching goal of this project was to understand how interactions between the near-surface atmosphere and surface topography control the input, accumulation, retention, and release of water from mountain snowpacks. Over a 5-year period, this project pursued an approach combining high-resolution regional climate modeling, satellite and airborne remote sensing data, and ground-based observations to develop and analyze benchmark datasets to address overarching science questions and hypotheses. Key products include a continuous, long-term, high spatiotemporal resolution (1 km/1 hr) dataset characterizing key climate variables in the Upper Colorado River Basin. The dataset included historical estimates of precipitation, temperature, humidity, solar and longwave radiation, and wind speeds. Additionally, the project developed a 20+ year long, 30 m spatial, daily temporal multi-sensor dataset characterizing snow presence/absence in the East/Taylor River watersheds in the Central Rocky Mountains of Colorado. The project supported training of 1 postdoctoral scholar, 1 Ph.D. student, and 1 M.S. student.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Materials for the biorefinery: high bio-content, shape memory Kraft lignin-derived non-isocyanate polyurethane foams using a non-toxic protocol

Polyurethanes are among the top six polymers produced in the world and are widely used in the automotive, furniture, construction and appliance industry for their light weight, impact resistance, and insulating properties. However, the use of hazardous diisocyanates used in polyurethane formulations has led many to search for more sustainable alternatives. The lignin component of biomass has been targeted to replace the often toxic and petroleum-derived precursors to polymer synthesis in support of the biorefinery concept where natural materials are used as the feedstock for commodity plastics. The use of lignin is often hampered due to its low reactivity, heterogeneity and the necessity of employing extensive purification and/or functionalization measures to ensure materials are of comparable quality. In this report, a unique method is presented for the synthesis and processing of a non-toxic, non-isocyanate polyurethane foam utilizing unmodified Kraft lignin and a biobased curing agent. Here, raw Kraft lignin is functionalized with green organic carbonates and a non-toxic approach is taken to solubilize the precursors with a curing agent from renewable fatty acids enabling rapid gel-times. For the first time, a NIPU foam from lignin is synthesized while the structure–property relationship of different reaction mixtures is studied demonstrating shape memory capacity and 100% biobased carbon content.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗