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Task 12 Sustainability - Methodological Guidelines on Net Energy Analysis of Photovoltaic Electricity (2nd Edition)

Net Energy Analysis (NEA) is a structured, comprehensive method of quantifying the extent to which a given energy source is able to provide a net energy gain (i.e., an energy surplus) to the end user, after accounting for all the energy losses occurring along the chain of processes that are required to exploit it (i.e., for its extraction, processing and transformation into a usable energy carrier, and delivery to the end user), as well as for all the additional energy 'investments' that are required in order to carry out the same chain of processes. However, this general framework leaves the individual practitioner with a range of choices that can affect the results and thus, the conclusions of a NEA study. The current IEA PVPS guidelines were developed to provide guidance on assuring consistency, balance, and quality to enhance the credibility and reliability of the results from photovoltaic (PV) NEAs. The guidelines represent a consensus among the authors - PV NEA experts in North America and Europe - for assumptions made on PV performance, process inputs and outputs, methods of analysis, and reporting of the results. Guidance is given on photovoltaic-specific parameters used as inputs in NEA and on choices and assumptions in inventory data analysis and on implementation of modelling approaches. A consistent approach towards system modelling, the functional unit, the system boundaries and allocation aspects enhance the credibility of PV electricity NEA studies and enables balanced NEA-based comparisons. Specifically, "apples-to-oranges" comparisons of different energy carriers (e.g., fuels vs. electricity) are not methodologically sound and are to be avoided in all cases; also, any comparison across renewable and non-renewable electricity generation technologies must clearly point out the intrinsically short-term nature of the NEA viewpoint, which does not capture the long-term sustainability implications of renewable vs. non-renewable primary energy harvesting and use: non-renewable primary energy resources are depleted and finally exhausted (irrespective of the size of the EROI), while renewable primary energy resources are not. This document provides an in-depth discussion of a common metric of NEA, namely the energy return on investment (EROI), and how this is to be interpreted vis-a-vis the deceptively similar-sounding metrics in the field of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA): cumulative energy demand (CED) and non-renewable cumulative energy demand (nr-CED) per unit output. Specifically, a number of key differences are highlighted between these metrics as applied to electricity production systems, which are listed in Table S-1.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Report on use of Inoculants in Missile Application Alloys

This report documents the status of current inoculant research relevant to missile application alloys and MTCR control language. The information is intended to provide data on current inoculants for us determining the current state of development and identifying potential research directions. Although there has been significant scientific research into the development and synthesis of inoculants, their current availability is limited is traditional powder inoculants employed during casting processes. However, research continues the development of complex oxides, ribbon materials, high entropy alloys, and other inoculant product forms, including the use of inoculants in the melt pools produced during additive manufacturing. Research to date has focused primarily on aluminum and steel alloys with emphasis on refining grain structures and evolving equiaxed morphologies while increasing strength and castability. The primary inoculants in steel and cast irons include TiN, SiC, FeSi75, and Ce which have increased strength properties. Chief inoculants for Al alloys often include TiC, SiC, Al3Sc(x) and TiB2 to aid in precipitation and refinement. Ti and Ni alloys have fewer research activities involving inoculants, although TiN, TiB, ZrN and LaB6 (for Ti alloys) and WC, Co3FeNb2, and CrFeNb (for Ni alloys) have been used. Sic, Al2O3, Mg and Ti are key inoculants for Mg alloys. Multiple cast alloys from each of the material classes demonstrated increased strength and performance properties using inoculants, with several approaching requirements applicable to missile service environments. The continued evolution of advanced manufacturing capabilities is making it easier to produce high temperature near net shape structural materials using inoculant powders. These shapes may include the geometric shapes addressed within the MTCR (tubes and limited wall thicknesses). The use of inoculants may enable further development of high temperature alloys into near net shapes traditionally produced via casting processes due to limited ductility. This may decrease material and manufacturing costs. In addition, inoculation provides controlled kinetics and achievable chemical segregation that enables potential for far-from equilibrium thermodynamic microstructures and chemistries that could provide new metastable alloy states and subsequent properties to address co-design engineering constraints, including needs for increased strength and ductility. It is recommended that specific material combinations within these alloy classes be carefully watched as the materials evolve, with controls aimed at those having material properties above current MTCR levels. This specifically includes the use of refractory inoculants in alloys, and the application of inoculants in high strength and high temperature alloys via additive manufacturing processes, with care to link capabilities to product forms similar to the current requirements on tube geometries and material feed stocks. The continued development of nanoparticle inoculants will increase strength and ductility of high strength castings and additive manufactured metallic components. For example, adding inoculants into the casting of maraging steels and other precipitation strengthened alloys may drastically elevate mechanical properties above the control limit of current regulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Scaling from Flux Towers to Ecosystem Models: Regional Constraints on Carbon Cycle Processes from Atmospheric Carbonyl Sulfide (Final Report)

DOE supported research suggests that gross primary productivity (GPP) is largely underestimated by global earth system models [Welp et al., 2011], reflecting the persistent challenge in extrapolating from local-scale GPP observations to global-scale earth system models. This poor understanding of GPP at large spatial scales is of particular concern in tropical forests. In tropical forests, some earth systems models forecast a powerful feedback between a warming climate and a decline in GPP resulting in forest dieback. While this simulated feedback is intensely debated, we lack robust large-scale constraints on GPP that are needed to resolve this debate. In particular, carbon dioxide measurements provide valuable information on net carbon flux, but not on the gross flux associated with GPP. Here we conducted a study of regional-to-global scale GPP using atmospheric carbonyl sulfide to provide a new constraint on GPP mechanisms in earth system models. Our project activities integrated modeling, in situ measurement, and remote sensing techniques to resolve GPP for the Amazon as well as global scale trends. The results of this work included initiating airborne carbonyl sulfide monitoring in the Amazon, training for postdocs and graduate students at a Hispanic Serving Institution, fundamental advances in carbonyl sulfide budgets [e.g. Hilton et al., Nature Climate Change, 2017], and high-profile publications that focused on GPP trends for the Amazon [Stinecipher et al., GRL, 2022] and global historical GPP trends [Campbell, et al., Nature, 2017]. Based on the suggestion of our DOE program manager, we published a state-of-the-science commentary to the scientific community on GPP monitoring with COS [Campbell et al., EOS, 2017] which was selected as the cover story. DOE support was acknowledged in all reports. The importance of this research to understanding climate change was communicated to the general public through community seminars (Rotary, Public Libraries, State Parks), an op-ed (SF Chronicle), and interviews in the mass media including two stories in the New York Times (4/5/17; 7/30/18), one of which was especially widely read after it was featured in the New York Time’s Quote of the Day.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Rational engineering to enhance C8-fatty acid biosynthesis in Picosynechococcus sp. PCC 7002

Medium-chain fatty acids (e.g., C8-C14) are important biofuel precursors that can be produced from CO2 by cyanobacteria and other photoautotrophs. However, cyanobacteria naturally direct a relatively small fraction of fixed carbon to lipid synthesis, primarily producing long-chain membrane-bound fatty acids. We investigated whether mitigating kinetic bottlenecks within the fatty acid biosynthesis (FAB) pathway could enhance flux to free fatty acid (FFA) production in Picosynechococcus sp. PCC 7002. Previous in vitro studies proposed that the FAB initiating enzyme FabH is the primary rate-controlling enzyme in PCC 7002. We hypothesized that enhancing fatty acid initiation could increase in vivo FFA production while shifting the kinetic bottleneck further downstream in the pathway. We enabled C8-FFA accumulation by knocking out the native acyl-acyl carrier protein synthetase gene (aas) and expressing the highly active Cuphea palustris-derived mutant thioesterase CpFatB1.2-M4-287 (CupTE), which selectively catalyzes C8 chain termination. We then expressed the diatom-derived Chaetoceros sp. GSL56 FabH ortholog (chKASIII), to enhance initiation, and a medium-chain selective E. coli ketosynthase ecFabF[I108F] (ecFabF∗), to enhance elongation. When expressed individually or in combination with ecFabF∗, chKASIII slowed growth and decreased net carbon fixation rates relative to the parental Δaas-CupTE strain. However, co-expression of chKASIII, ecFabF∗, and CupTE redirected a larger fraction of fixed carbon toward FFA production, increasing relative carbon flux to C8-FFA and decreasing the projected minimum selling price by four-fold. This work demonstrates how systems metabolic engineering can be applied to enhance C8-FFA production in cyanobacteria while highlighting the unpredictable physiological consequences of host metabolic burden.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

The role of the iron and steel sector in achieving net zero U.S. CO 2 emissions by 2050

The U.S. steel sector is a hard-to-abate sector because of its heavy dependence on fossil fuels and its high capital requirements. In 2015, the sector was one of the major carbon emitters, contributing 10 % of the U.S. industrial CO 2 emissions. The ability to decarbonize the U.S. iron and steel sector directly affects the ability of the U.S. to achieve economy-wide net zero CO 2 by 2050. In this paper, we use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to analyze different U.S. steel sector decarbonization pathways under varying technology, policy, and demand futures. These pathways provide insights on how various low-carbon steelmaking technologies such as those using carbon capture and storage (CCS), hydrogen, or scrap could help reduce U.S. steel emissions by mid-century. In our primary decarbonization pathway, we find that nearly all of the conventional fossil-based steelmaking capacity is fully integrated with CCS by 2050. However, without CCS availability, almost all of the conventional fossil-based steelmaking is phased-out by 2050 and is replaced by hydrogen-based production. Scrap-based production continues to remain vital across both of these decarbonization pathways. Furthermore, we find that demand reduction could help reduce the required levels of CCS and hydrogen-based production in the decarbonization pathways. Implementation of advanced energy efficiency measures could help substantially reduce the sector's energy usage. Finally, we observe that addressing the embodied carbon transfer associated with steel imports will be crucial for fully decarbonizing the U.S. steel sector.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A New Coupled Biogeochemical Modeling Approach Provides Accurate Predictions of Methane and Carbon Dioxide Fluxes Across Diverse Tidal Wetlands

Abstract Tidal wetlands provide valuable ecosystem services, including storing large amounts of carbon. However, the net exchanges of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) in tidal wetlands are highly uncertain. While several biogeochemical models can operate in tidal wetlands, they have yet to be parameterized and validated against high‐frequency, ecosystem‐scale CO 2 and CH 4 flux measurements across diverse sites. We paired the Cohort Marsh Equilibrium Model (CMEM) with a version of the PEPRMT model called PEPRMT‐Tidal, which considers the effects of water table height, sulfate, and nitrate availability on CO 2 and CH 4 emissions. Using a model‐data fusion approach, we parameterized the model with three sites and validated it with two independent sites, with representation from the three marine coasts of North America. Gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (R eco ) modules explained, on average, 73% of the variation in CO 2 exchange with low model error (normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) <1). The CH 4 module also explained the majority of variance in CH 4 emissions in validation sites ( R 2 = 0.54; nRMSE = 1.15). The PEPRMT‐Tidal‐CMEM model coupling is a key advance toward constraining estimates of greenhouse gas emissions across diverse North American tidal wetlands. Further analyses of model error and case studies during changing salinity conditions guide future modeling efforts regarding four main processes: (a) the influence of salinity and nitrate on GPP, (b) the influence of laterally transported dissolved inorganic C on R eco , (c) heterogeneous sulfate availability and methylotrophic methanogenesis impacts on surface CH 4 emissions, and (d) CH 4 responses to non‐periodic changes in salinity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Gulf ribbed mussels increase plant growth, primary production, and soil nitrogen cycling potential in salt marshes

Smooth cordgrass Spartina alterniflora and Atlantic ribbed mussels Geukensia demissa have a mutualism whereby S. alterniflora provides substrate and shade for G. demissa while G. demissa enhances S. alterniflora growth and drought tolerance. Together, these species improve salt marsh stability and function. To better understand if a similar relationship exists between S. alterniflora and Gulf ribbed mussels G. granosissima in salt marshes of the Gulf of Mexico, we conducted a manipulative experiment with identical starting plant density and varying densities of G. granosissima and monitored plant and soil responses over a growing season. We found that S. alterniflora stem and leaf density was 1.5 and 1.9 times greater for the highest mussel biomass compared to the lowest mussel biomass treatments. Similarly, above- and below-ground biomass were 2.6 and 3.2 times greater for the highest mussel biomass compared to the lowest mussel biomass treatments. More and larger S. alterniflora at higher G. granosissima densities resulted in 2 and 4 times the S. alterniflora gross CO 2 uptake and respiration rate, respectively. Methane fluxes were highest when G. granosissima were present, likely driven by the positive relationship between methane flux and belowground biomass. Net potential nitrification was 5 times higher for the highest mussel biomass compared to the lowest mussel biomass treatments, and denitrification rates were 1.8 times higher. Ultimately, our results suggest that G. granosissima increases S. alterniflora growth and productivity, much like the positive relationship between G. demissa and S. alterniflora , which in turn influences salt marsh stability and function.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Composition and yield of non-cellulosic and cellulosic sugars in soluble and particulate fractions during consolidated bioprocessing of poplar biomass by Clostridium thermocellum

Abstract Background Terrestrial plant biomass is the primary renewable carbon feedstock for enabling transition to a sustainable bioeconomy. Consolidated bioprocessing (CBP) by the cellulolytic thermophile Clostridium thermocellum offers a single step microbial platform for production of biofuels and biochemicals via simultaneous solubilization of carbohydrates from lignocellulosic biomass and conversion to products. Here, solubilization of cell wall cellulosic, hemicellulosic, and pectic polysaccharides in the liquor and solid residues generated during CBP of poplar biomass by C. thermocellum was analyzed. Results The total amount of biomass solubilized in the C. thermocellum DSM1313 fermentation platform was 5.8, 10.3, and 13.7% of milled non-pretreated poplar after 24, 48, and 120 h, respectively. These results demonstrate solubilization of 24% cellulose and 17% non-cellulosic sugars after 120 h, consistent with prior reports. The net solubilization of non-cellulosic sugars by C. thermocellum (after correcting for the uninoculated control fermentations) was 13 to 36% of arabinose (Ara), xylose (Xyl), galactose (Gal), mannose (Man), and glucose (Glc); and 15% and 3% of fucose and glucuronic acid, respectively. No rhamnose was solubilized and 71% of the galacturonic acid (GalA) was solubilized. These results indicate that C. thermocellum may be selective for the types and/or rate of solubilization of the non-cellulosic wall polymers. Xyl, Man, and Glc were found to accumulate in the fermentation liquor at levels greater than in uninoculated control fermentations, whereas Ara and Gal did not accumulate, suggesting that C. thermocellum solubilizes both hemicelluloses and pectins but utilizes them differently. After five days of fermentation, the relative amount of Rha in the solid residues increased 21% indicating that the Rha-containing polymer rhamnogalacturonan I (RG-I) was not effectively solubilized by C. thermocellum CBP, a result confirmed by immunoassays. Comparison of the sugars in the liquor versus solid residue showed that C. thermocellum solubilized hemicellulosic xylan and mannan, but did not fully utilize them, solubilized and appeared to utilize pectic homogalacturonan, and did not solubilize RG-I. Conclusions The significant relative increase in RG-I in poplar solid residues following CBP indicates that C. thermocellum did not solubilize RG-I. These results support the hypothesis that this pectic glycan may be one barrier for efficient solubilization of poplar by C. thermocellum .

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Scalable electrified cementitious materials production and recycling

The production of Portland cement, the industry-standard cement, contributes ~8% of global CO 2 emissions through fossil-fuel heating and decomposition of limestone (the primary cement raw material). Decarbonization, e.g., via direct electrification, of this 200-year-old liming routine is extremely challenging at the industry scale. We propose a scalable electrochemical decarbonization approach to circumvent the limestone use by switching to carbon-free calcium silicates from abundant minerals and recycled concrete. Water electrolysis produces protons and hydroxides to drive a pH gradient that accelerates Ca 2+ ion leaching from calcium silicates and captures atmospheric CO 2 to form carbon-negative CaCO 3 , which serves as the feedstock for cement manufacturing or as the carbon-mineralized product for cement substitution with permanent carbon storage. Value-added co-products amorphous silica and green H 2 further enhance cement performance and supplant fossil fuels for net-zero transition, respectively. The products readily meet present-day regulatory standards and demands, and the approach readily synergizes with business-as-usual cement manufacturing and concrete construction, which are important for upscaling and structural safety, promising ready reception by the public and industries. Blended Portland cement produced through our approach with carbon-negative CaCO 3 and silica demonstrates enhanced resilience and achieves carbon neutrality or negativity when incorporating storage or circulation of CO 2 from cement plant flue gas, respectively. This low-cost, electrochemical cement production approach using abundant ubiquitous raw materials enables electrification, transition to clean fuel, and decarbonization at a gigaton scale.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

SPARC 3D Field Physics and Support of the Non-Axisymmetric Coil Assessment

Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) is deploying SPARC, a net-energy tokamak, by 2025. A notable challenge facing all tokamak approaches to fusion energy production is maintaining a stable plasma and thereby steady energy production. “Disruptions” to plasma operation are often encountered in devices when they operate at high normalized pressure, high normalized density, or high normalized current. SPARC is unique in that it is expected to demonstrate Q>=2 in a plasma with low normalized pressure and density, but with a more modest current limit buffer sufficient to avoid disruptions. Due to both the high normalized current and high magnetic field of the SPARC design, it is expected to decrease its relative resilience to instabilities driven by non-axisymmetry in the externally applied magnetic field, termed ‘error fields’. To prevent error field driven instabilities, a primary line of defense is strict engineering tolerances in magnet fabrication and installation. A secondary line of defense is a purpose-built set of magnetic coils to correct these errors, termed error field correction coils (EFCCs). The overarching goals of this INFUSE project were to evaluate the effectiveness of the EFCCs in the SPARC design and provide guidance as to how to improve this effectiveness.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Design and Development of a Fixtureless, Pass-through Machine Tool for Extrusion Machining

The aerospace, construction/architecture, and transportation manufacturing industries rely heavily on the mass production of near-net shape metallic and composite extrusions. While the production of raw extrusions is a relatively fast process, adding functional features such as holes and slots require additional time, cost, and energy to produce. To compensate for the inherent flexibility of extrusions, conventional machining requires rigid purpose-built fixtures for operations such as trimming, drilling and thinning. This approach requires that the machine tools be as large or larger than the parts themselves. This results in the need for excess shop floor space, energy for auxiliary equipment and motion systems, and significant capital expenditure. Considerable engineering expense and time involved in the designing, building, and proving out of part-specific fixtures for holding the components in specific configurations while machining add to the overall manufacturing cost. The primary objective of the technical collaboration between Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Fairmount Technologies (FT) is to improve the XM-3, a fixtureless CNC milling machine designed by FT. The machine was developed to trim, drill, and thin extrusions without part specific fixturing to make the manufacturing process more efficient and flexible. Dynamic measurements of the existing structure were collected, and modeling efforts were made to evaluate optimal machining parameters for the current system. Areas of improvement to increase the system stiffness, manufacturability, and machining efficiency were evaluated and highlighted for the next generation design. The impact of this effort may enable agile manufacturing across the commercial and defense aerospace industries, and other industries where extrusions are utilized like in the construction, architecture, and transportation industries.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Design and Development of a Fixtureless, Pass-through Machine Tool for Extrusion Machining

The aerospace, construction/architecture, and transportation manufacturing industries rely heavily on the mass production of near-net shape metallic and composite extrusions. While the production of raw extrusions is a relatively fast process, adding functional features such as holes and slots require additional time, cost, and energy to produce. To compensate for the inherent flexibility of extrusions, conventional machining requires rigid purpose-built fixtures for operations such as trimming, drilling and thinning. This approach requires that the machine tools be as large or larger than the parts themselves. This results in the need for excess shop floor space, energy for auxiliary equipment and motion systems, and significant capital expenditure. Considerable engineering expense and time involved in the designing, building, and proving out of part-specific fixtures for holding the components in specific configurations while machining add to the overall manufacturing cost. The primary objective of the technical collaboration between Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Fairmount Technologies (FT) is to improve the XM-3, a fixtureless CNC milling machine designed by FT. The machine was developed to trim, drill, and thin extrusions without part specific fixturing to make the manufacturing process more efficient and flexible. Dynamic measurements of the existing structure were collected, and modeling efforts were made to evaluate optimal machining parameters for the current system. Areas of improvement to increase the system stiffness, manufacturability, and machining efficiency were evaluated and highlighted for the next generation design. The impact of this effort may enable agile manufacturing across the commercial and defense aerospace industries, and other industries where extrusions are utilized like in the construction, architecture, and transportation industries.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Carbon and Water Fluxes of the Boreal Evergreen Needleleaf Forest Biome Constrained by Assimilating Ecosystem Carbonyl Sulfide Flux Observations

Gross primary production (GPP) by boreal forests is highly sensitive to environmental changes. However, GPP simulated by land surface models (LSMs) remains highly uncertain due to the lack of direct photosynthesis observations at large scales. Carbonyl sulfide (COS) has emerged as a promising proxy to improve the representation of GPP in LSMs. Because COS is absorbed by vegetation following the same diffusion pathway as CO2 during photosynthesis and not emitted back to the atmosphere, incorporating a mechanistic representation of vegetation COS uptake in LSMs allows using COS observations to refine GPP representation. Here, we perform ecosystem COS flux and GPP data assimilations to constrain the COS- and GPP-related parameters in the ORCHIDEE LSM for boreal evergreen needleleaf forests (BorENF). Assimilating ecosystem COS fluxes at Hyytiälä forest increases the simulated net ecosystem COS uptake by 14%. This increase largely results from changes in the internal conductance to COS, highlighting the need to improve the representation of COS internal diffusion and consumption. Moreover, joint assimilation of ecosystem COS flux and GPP at Hyytiälä improves the simulated latent heat flux, contrary to the GPP-only data assimilation, which fails to do so. Finally, we scaled this assimilation framework up to the boreal region and find that the joint assimilation of COS at Hyytiälä and GPP fluxes at 10 BorENF sites increases the modeled vegetation COS uptake up to 18%, but not GPP. Therefore, this study encourages the use of COS flux observations to inform GPP and latent heat flux representations in LSMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The influence of fire aerosols on surface climate and gross primary production in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM)

Fire-emitted aerosols play an important role in influencing Earth’s climate, directly by scattering and absorbing radiation and indirectly by influencing cloud microphysics. The quantification of fire-aerosol interactions, however, remains challenging and subject to uncertainties in emissions, plume parameterizations, and aerosol properties. Here we optimized fire-associated aerosol emissions in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) using the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) and AERONET aerosol optical depth (AOD) observations during 1997-2016. Furthermore, we distributed fire emissions vertically using smoke plume heights from Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) satellite observations. From the optimization, we estimate that global fires emit 45.5 Tg y -1 of primary particulate organic matter and 3.9 Tg y -1 of black carbon. We then performed two climate simulations with and without the optimized fire emissions. We find that fire aerosols significantly increase global AOD by 14 ± 7% and contribute to a reduction in net shortwave radiation at the surface (-2.3 ± 0.5 W m -2 ). Together, fire-induced direct and indirect aerosol effects cause annual mean global land surface air temperature to decrease by 0.17 ± 0.15°C, relative humidity to increase by 0.4 ± 0.3%, and diffuse light fraction to increase by 0.5 ± 0.3%. In response, GPP declines by 2.8 Pg C y -1 , as a result of large positive drivers (decreases in temperature and increases in humidity and diffuse light) nearly cancelling out large negative drivers (decreases shortwave radiation and soil moisture). Our analysis highlights the importance of fire aerosols in modifying surface climate and photosynthesis across the tropics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sub-pilot-scale Production of High-Value Products from U.S. Coals

Investigators from the University of Utah, University of Wyoming and Marshall University pursued a program to study the conversion of raw coal to high-value products of carbon fiber and silicon carbide. Team members also developed an initial framework for a data portal that can incorporate laboratory data on coal processing and product quality, and also work with tools for machine learning for data analysis, data visualization and economic assessment. Experimental R&D efforts focused on the conversion of raw coal to coal tar and other byproducts, and the resulting tar intermediates were upgraded to form anisotropic and isotropic pitch materials. These pitch materials were produced from coal using both thermal (pyrolysis) and chemical (mild solvolysis liquefaction) decomposition of raw coal. Four different coals were studied: Utah bituminous coal (Sufco), Wyoming PRB coal (Black Thunder), Illinois bituminous coal (Illinois #6), and West Virginia bituminous coal (Flying Eagle). Both metallurgical-grade coking coals and lower-grade steam coals were investigated, and controlled secondary gas-phase reactions were used during a two-stage pyrolysis process to induce cracking and condensation reactions among the pyrolytic tar species. This approach successfully improved the performance of the lower grade coals for yielding pitch materials, with properties more consistent with a commercial-grade pitch that had previously demonstrated success for quality carbon fiber production. The use of waste plastic materials was also studied, to help improve physical and chemical characteristics of the intermediate tars and final pitch product; in particular, for lowering the pitch softening point to an acceptable level for melt spinning carbon fiber. Mild solvolysis liquefaction was also used as a method for producing pitch for carbon fiber production. As expected, significantly higher pitch yields were obtained using this approach, and waste plastic materials were also successfully used to reduce pitch softening point to an acceptable level. The plastic materials were also utilized to create a solvent for the mild solvolysis process, and this plastic-derived solvent was shown to provide results consistent with more expensive commercial chemical solvents, and could thus avoid the need for costly recovery and recycle of a liquefaction solvent. Additional experimental R&D focused on the production of silicon carbide (β-SiC) from the residual char byproduct from pitch production, and also on the production of carbon fiber from the anisotropic pitch. SiC was successfully synthesized using a mixture of residual char and sandstone at a ratio of 1:1. Reaction temperature and residence time were optimized and yielded a product purity of 81%. For carbon fiber production, the most successful pitch samples were obtained from the mild solvolysis liquefaction approach, combined with the use of a plastic (HDPE)-derived solvent. Fiber properties improved over time as laboratory fiber production methodologies improved, and final yields of carbon fiber were obtained with a diameter of 12.14 ± 1.10 um, Modulus of 173.73 ± 15.25 GPa, and Tensile Strength of 1.04 ± 0.10 GPa. A proof-of-concept Modern Community Research Data Portal (MCRDP) was developed and deployed for coal and coal-derived pitch characterization, with the full support of (i) remote web-based access, (ii) distributed analysis, (iii) interactive visualization and exploration, (iv) shared and long-term data access, (v) advanced query capabilities and (vi) real-time collaboration. The Coal to Products Data Portal “coaltoproducts.org” provides researchers with space to store and share data within a project, tools for analyzing and understanding data for scientific investigation, and the ability to publish data to the broader community for reproducibility. The portal leverages the Material Commons 2.0 (MC) platform developed by the Center for PRedictive Integrated Structural Materials Science (PRISMS) of the University of Michigan, to achieve long-term longevity of data collections and, more importantly, collaborative science. A number of data visualization tools were also assessed and implemented for interrogating the experimental and modeling data. The machine learning portion of this project analyzed datasets from two different coal conversion processes performed on a diverse set of coal samples from both the coal pyrolysis experiments and the solvent liquefaction experiments. The work was initiated by exploring standard regression models on the pyrolysis data, aiming to understand the impact of sample characteristics and processing conditions on key product metrics. Over the course of the project, the focus expanded to include a variety of machine learning tools, delving into both supervised and unsupervised learning methods. Models tested on the pyrolysis data included linear, ridge, lasso, elastic-net, Gaussian process, random forest regression, and AutoSklearn, and the approach was continually refined to enhance predictive accuracy and model interpretability. Similar techniques were applied to the liquefaction data with an additional focus on feature engineering. Along with mesophase content, additional outputs of interest were the pitch yield, softening point, and QI content. Insights derived from these analyses are crucial in determining the factors influencing the quality and yield of coal-derived products. As the work progressed, the research evolved from foundational model comparisons to analyses of random forests, decision paths, and feature importance scores. A thorough market analysis was performed to examine the prospects of coal-based carbon fibers. The best opportunities for coal come from its lower and more stable price relative to petroleum, particularly for subbituminous coals, which is the primary advantage that a coal refinery may have over a petroleum refinery. Before a commercial CTP production facility can be modeled, however, several things need to be understood regarding the nature of the would-be coal refinery. These include the technology to be deployed, the size of facility, the volume(s) of co-product(s), and the waste and emissions profile of the plant. The volume of co-products and waste may be substantial and will require separate market analysis to ensure viability. In the near-term, the importance of coal tar pitch, in the form of carbon pitch, to the aluminum and steel industries is likely to overshadow the alternative use of this material as an input for carbon fiber. The importance of steel and aluminum in building materials, and the need for carbon materials in their manufacturing, will ensure that demand for these products remains for the long run. In addition, carbon fiber may also be the best substitute for steel and aluminum well into the future. While society will eventually be able to shift production of much of its electricity needs to renewables, it will not be able to shift away from fossil fuels for production of high-strength construction and vehicular materials. Demand for carbon fiber is expected to increase quickly, but the volume of carbon fiber and the amount of coal that would be needed to produce even a sizeable share of this market may still be relatively small compared to current coal production. Thus, other coal-based products like graphene, graphite, carbon foams, resins, and carbon-based building products will play important roles in sustaining coal production as coal-fired power generation continues to decline.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Comparison of Commercial, State-of-the-Art, Fossil-Based Ammonia Production

This NETL report provides a comprehensive techno-economic analysis of current, state-of-the-art, fossil-based ammonia production processes, explicitly utilizing natural gas as the feedstock. The study thoroughly investigates three distinct configurations: conventional Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) without carbon capture, SMR integrated with carbon capture and storage (CCS), and Autothermal Reforming (ATR) also with CCS. The analysis incorporates detailed equipment cost accounting as part of its methodology. The primary objective is to meticulously evaluate the cost and performance of these established and emerging technological pathways, considering factors such as capital expenditures, operational costs, and energy consumption. While the report acknowledges and quantifies environmental impacts, its central focus remains on the economic and technical feasibility of each process design employing these current technologies. The analysis provides a direct comparison of the Levelized Cost of Ammonia (LCOA) for each pathway, revealing how the integration of CCS within these state-of-the-art systems impacts the overall production cost. The ATR+CCS configuration, representing an advanced approach, emerged with a slightly more favorable LCOA compared to SMR+CCS. This benefit was attributed to its inherent process efficiencies, high carbon capture rates, and economy of scale advantages. The report details the energy consumption profiles for each case, including metrics like net energy consumption and thermal efficiency, which are critical for assessing the performance of these contemporary industrial processes. Sensitivity analyses further explore how variables such as natural gas price, capital costs, and capacity factors influence the LCOA across all scenarios, offering critical insights into the economic robustness and scalability of these current ammonia production technologies.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Water alternative gas (WAG) optimization for a heterogeneous Brazilian pre-salt carbonate reservoir

Water alternating gas (WAG) is a cyclical process that involves alternating water and gas injections with the primary goal to improve sweep efficiency by maintaining initial high pressure, slowing water and gas breakthrough, and lowering oil viscosity. The objective of this work is to apply and optimize a WAG strategy on a carbonate field with light oil, compare it to the initially planned water-flooding strategy, and investigate the capability of WAG to improve field production. In this research, a compositional reservoir simulator was used to model a WAG process by injecting produced gas into the reservoir, using the same well structure as an optimized water-flooding strategy. Subsequently, a WAG strategy was created, optimizing the number and locations of wells, to facilitate a comparative analysis of the two recovery methods. The WAG optimization involved a detailed assessment of variables such as bottom hole pressure (BHP), WAG cycle duration, maximum gas oil ratio (GOR), and well positioning, to achieve a high net present value (NPV). The study focuses on the application of WAG optimization modeling in unconventional reservoirs, specifically pre-salt carbonate reservoirs, and investigates its implications on production strategy and forecast, emphasizing its potential for maximizing NPV and oil recovery in a recently producing field. The results showed that WAG improved reservoir performance when compared to water injection and produced a greater amount of oil. This solution showed potential to be tested under uncertainties (reservoir heterogeneity, faults, fractures, karsts, vugs, etc.) as future steps.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CO2 Capture Strategies via Mineralization with Industrial Waste Brines

Large coal-fired power plants (>500 MW) account for 30% of global CO2 emissions, and long-term management of this CO2 to is urgently needed mitigate global temperature increases. Sequestration of CO2 within stable mineral carbonates (e.g., CaCO3) represents an attractive emission reduction strategy because it offers a leakage-free alternative to geological storage of CO2 in an environmentally friendly form. We have previously described a mineralization process in which divalent cations are sourced from various waste streams (e.g., produced water and brackish water) and alkalinity is induced via regenerable ion-exchange materials (Bustillos et. al. Frontiers in Energy Research. 2020, 8, 352). In our process, aqueous carbonate-bearing streams with pH > 8 are produced by contacting fresh water and carbon dioxide with various ion-exchange materials (e.g., Na form zeolites or ion exchange resins). These streams are mixed with produced water containing varying concentrations (~0.01 – 1.0 M) of Ca2+ leading to the precipitation of solid calcium carbonate (PCC). This process has the advantages of using regenerable solids in a simple and continuous process to increase the pH of water by ion exchange instead of relying on the consumption of costly and unsustainable sources of alkalinity (e.g., sodium hydroxide). While once-through column experiments showed the above benefits, the same were yet to established in a steady-state process with recycle streams. In this work, we set up a process simulation to quantify the energy requirements and CO2 emissions associated with the process and seek optimal produced water compositions and CO2 concentrations (5 – 20 vol%). The process simulation was set up in ASPEN Plus using eRNTL as the thermodynamic property method and sequential modular strategy. Ion exchange alkaline solution was simulated using sodium hydroxide and validated against the experimental data obtained from once-through kinetic experiments. Nanofiltration and reverse osmosis membrane steps were also implemented for the separation of divalent cations and production of fresh water and a regeneration stream following mineralization. Sensitivity analysis was carried out using a range of produced water compositions (0.01 – 1.0 M Ca2+, 0.001 – 0.15 M Mg2+, 0.5 – 3.5 M Na+ and 0.0004 – 0.002 M Fe2+) according to the United States Geological Survey (USGS) database. Calcium carbonate yields increased with increasing CO2 concentrations and were maximized using produced water compositions with larger Ca2+ concentrations. Maximum calcium carbonate yields produced at 5 vol%, 12 vol% and 20 vol% CO2 were 2.3 mmol/L, 5.5 mmol/L, and 9.3 mmol/L, respectively, with the formation of brucite (a magnesium hydroxide phase, Mg(OH)2) and goethite (an iron hydroxide phase, FeOOH) as the primary contaminant phases (99% calcite, 0.6% brucite, 0.4% goethite), which agree with phases detected by XRD experimentally. These results indicate high purity calcium carbonate can be precipitated using industrial waste streams. Consequentially, energy consumption and net CO2 emissions were minimized where precipitated calcium carbonate was maximized for all produced water compositions and CO2 concentrations. Minimum energy consumptions were 0.21 kWh/ton CO2 processed, with 98% of the energy input required coming from the membrane filtration steps. Produced water compositions with large Na+ concentrations (> 0.5 M) were effective at reducing energy consumptions due to faster regeneration time of ion exchange materials. Additionally, calculated net CO2 emissions were negative for the process and ranged from -0.02 kg/ton CO2 to -0.15 kg/ton CO2 processed, indicating a low emission process. We will also present techno-economic assessment showing the economic benefits of the current process as an alternative to the addition of stoichiometric bases to induce alkalinity for the precipitation of CaCO3.

Simonetti, Dante↗