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DOE OSTI2021

Solar Transposition Modeling via Deep Neural Networks With Sky Images

This article presents a notable advance toward the development of a new method of increasing the single-axis tracking photovoltaic (PV) system power output by improving the determination and near-term prediction of the optimum module tilt angle. The tilt angle of the plane receiving the greatest total irradiance changes with Sun position and atmospheric conditions including cloud formation and movement, aerosols, and particulate loading, as well as varying albedo within a module's field of view. In this article, we present a multi-input convolutional neural network that can create a profile of plane-of-array irradiance versus surface tilt angle over a full 180° arc from horizon to horizon. As input, the neural network uses the calculated solar position and clear-sky irradiance values, along with sky images. The target irradiance values are provided by the multiplanar irradiance sensor (MPIS). In order to account for varying irradiance conditions, the MPIS signal is normalized by the theoretical clear-sky global horizontal irradiance. Using this information, the neural network outputs an N -dimensional vector, where N is the number of points to approximate the MPIS curve via Fourier resampling. The output vector of the model is smoothed with a Gaussian kernel to account for error in the downsamping and subsequent upsampling steps, as well as to smooth the unconstrained output of the model. Furthermore, these profiles may be used to perform near-term prediction of angular irradiance, which can then inform the movement of a PV tracker.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Climate-Induced Tradeoffs in Planning and Operating Costs of a Regional Electricity System

Electricity grid planners design the system in order to supply electricity to end users reliably and affordably. Climate change threatens both objectives through potentially compounding supply- and demand-side climate-induced impacts. Uncertainty surrounds each of these future potential impacts. Given long planning horizons, system planners must weigh investment costs against operational costs under this uncertainty. Here, we developed a comprehensive and coherent integrated modeling framework combining physically-based models with cost-minimizing optimization models in the power system. We applied this modeling framework to analyze potential tradeoffs in planning and operating costs in the power grid due to climate change in the Southeast U.S. in 2050. We find that planning decisions that do not account for climate-induced impacts would result in a substantial increase in social costs associated with loss of load. These social costs are a result of under-investment in new capacity and capacity deratings of thermal generators when we included climate change impacts in the operation stage. Finally, these results highlight the importance of including climate change effects in the planning process.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Intra-hour Solar Irradiance Forecast in Multiple Locations using Deep Transfer Learning

In recent years, solar power system installation imposes several challenges on the operations of local and regional power grids due to the inherent variability of ground-level solar irradiance. This work proposes a novel real-time solar forecast methodology for intra-hour solar irradiance based on deep transfer learning from ground-based sky imager for time horizons ranging from 5-15 min. There are three unique aspects of the proposed methodology: (1) a Deep Learning based algorithm development which is modeled as a classification approach rather than a traditional regression approach; (2) the use of the Transfer Learning technique to show generalization capability, robustness, and portability of baseline model in the newly deployed location where availability of enough data for training is typically scarce, and (3) redefinition of point-based irradiation forecast error estimation technique with a window-based one that is more intuitive and user-friendly. The system is developed using multiple years of irradiance and sky image recording in New Jersey and one-year data from Colorado, USA. The method is validated against ground telemetry from these two locations of diverse geographic and climatic conditions. Results show that the forecasting method proposed in this work is robust and highly accurate (8% MAPE error) for multiple locations deployment.

Deep Learning, Convolution Neural Networks, transf↗

DOE OSTI2026

Examples of State and Utility Actions on Proactive Planning and Investments

As states across the U.S. confront rising electricity demand, clean energy deployment, grid modernization imperatives, and the integration of large new loads, some regulators and utilities are shifting away from reactive, “just-in-time” investment approaches toward more proactive planning and investment frameworks. This report compiles examples of jurisdictional and utility actions that reshape planning processes, cost recovery mechanisms, and performance oversight to anticipate—rather than simply respond to—future grid needs. Several themes emerge from state actions examined in this report. First, legislatures and commissions are increasingly directing utilities to proactively upgrade their distribution and transmission systems, reflecting a shift toward a forward-looking system that aligns planning with state policy goals. Second, states are establishing long-term, iterative planning frameworks that often feature multi-year horizons, biannual or annual compliance reporting, structured opportunities for stakeholder engagement, and emphasis on collaboration among utilities, regulators, and stakeholders. Third, states are actively investigating innovative cost recovery mechanisms designed to support accelerated electrification and grid modernization, while balancing consumer advocates’ concerns regarding the ratepayer financial risks of premature investments. Fourth, performance metrics and reporting requirements are being developed to ensure transparency and accountability for proactive investments. Fifth, methodological improvements in planning—such as aligning load forecasting assumptions, incorporating sensitivities, and considering load management potential across building, vehicles, storage, and demand response—are recurring areas of stakeholder focus across jurisdictions. Overall, these developments signify a growing recognition among state regulators, utilities, and stakeholders that proactive planning—supported by clear definitions, consistent and transparent methodologies, robust performance metrics, and innovative cost recovery mechanisms—is a tool that can be used to address the scale and urgency of contemporary grid needs.

electricity market↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multiple Carrier Generation at an Exceptionally Low Energy Threshold

Multiple carrier generation (MCG), a process wherein two or more carriers are generated from a single high-energy absorbed photon, holds immense promise for quantum sensing, metrology, low-threshold lasers, and photovoltaics. Despite its potential, MCG has faced obstacles such as low efficiency and a high threshold photon energy at least twice the band gap (2?Eg) of the semiconductor, limiting its application only to a class of materials with low Eg. Here, we present a new approach that overcomes this limitation by leveraging carrier-donor scattering to excite secondary electrons from donor states strategically positioned below the conduction band. Our method relies on strong Coulomb interaction, reduced dielectric screening, slow hot carrier cooling, and strictly follows the energy conservation rules. We experimentally demonstrated this idea in a model system of monolayer (1L) MoS2 by exploiting electron-donating chalcogen vacancy states. We observed an exceptionally low MCG threshold of ~1.12?Eg for the first time in 1L MoS2. Remarkably, the quantum yield can be further increased to >3 by increasing the photon energy to 1.65?Eg, representing a substantial advancement over existing methods. Our findings extend the horizon of MCG into next-generation high-performance optoelectronic devices with an on-demand operating spectral range spanning from infrared to ultraviolet.

CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Schrödinger evolution of two-dimensional black holes

This paper systematically treats the evolving quantum state for two-dimensional black holes, with particular focus on the CGHS model, but also elucidating features generalizing to higher dimensions. This is done in Schrödinger picture(s), to exhibit the dynamic evolution of the state at intermediate times. After a review of classical solutions, also connecting to descriptions of higher-dimensional black holes, it overviews the canonical quantum treatment of the full evolution, including gravitational dynamics. Derived in an approximation to this, following conversion to “perturbation picture”, is the evolution of the quantum matter on the background geometry. Features of the evolving matter state are described, based on choice of a time slicing to put the evolution into ADM form. The choices of slicing as well as coordinates on the slices result in different quantum “pictures” for treating the evolution. If such a description is based on smooth trans-horizon slices, that avoids explicit reference to ultra-planckian modes familiar from traditional treatments, and exhibits the Hawking excitations as emerging from a “quantum atmosphere” with thickness comparable to the inverse temperature. Detailed study of the state exhibits the entanglement structure between Hawking quanta and the partner excitations inside the black hole, and the corresponding “missing information”. This explicit description also allows direct study of the evolution and features, e.g. as seen by infalling observers, of these partner excitations, helping to address various puzzles with them. Explicit treatment of the evolving state, and its extension to higher dimensions, provides further connections to information theory and a starting point for study of corrections that can unitarize evolution, arising from new quantum gravity effects — whether wormholes or something entirely different.

2D Gravity↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian sequential optimal experimental design for nonlinear models using policy gradient reinforcement learning

We present a mathematical framework and computational methods for optimally designing a finite sequence of experiments. This sequential optimal experimental design (sOED) problem is formulated as a finite-horizon partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) under a Bayesian setting and with information-theoretic utilities. The formulation is general and may accommodate continuous random variables, non-Gaussian posteriors, and nonlinear forward models. The sOED design policy incorporates elements of feedback and lookahead simultaneously, and we show it to generalize the commonly-used batch and greedy design strategies. We solve for the sOED policy using the policy gradient (PG) method from reinforcement learning, and provide a derivation for the PG expression in the sOED context. Adopting an actor-critic approach, the policy and value functions are parameterized using deep neural networks and improved via PG estimates produced from simulated episodes of designs and observations. The new PG-sOED algorithm is first validated on a linear-Gaussian benchmark, and then compared against other design baselines on a sensor movement problem for contaminant source inversion in a convection-diffusion field. As a result, we provide explanation for the policy behaviors using knowledge of the underlying physical process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Combinatoric Researchers at Sandia National Laboratories: An ethnographic study

Combinatorial research, the incorporation of multiple domains in a unified research agenda, is a strong contributor to the growing corpus of scientific knowledge and technological advancements worldwide. In 2019, a study team at Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia, the Labs) used a systems approach to understand if and how combinatorial research agendas were playing out at Sandia, one of America’s premiere national security research venues. The study team used the data collection effort described in this report to ground the discussion of the broad social environment and particular organizational environments within which combinatorial research agendas are developed, as described in the full study. The team interviewed twenty-five staff members engaged in combinatorial research at Sandia in New Mexico and California during the months of June – September 2019. Analysis of this corpus of ethnographic data, combined with knowledge drawn from relevant literature, concluded that there is an individual type who would be most likely to engage in combinatoric research, described by both demographic and psychographic components. This type demonstrates both intellectual depth and the curiosity which leads to breadth. The analysis also showed that Sandia as an organization and as perceived by the respondents, set up tension for the combinatorial researcher. While Sandia was generally agnostic towards combinatorial research, that agnostic posture depended on whether the researcher was able to fulfill all her customer obligations – obligations that are structured primarily in transactional relationships with customers with relatively short time horizons. This report concludes with suggestions for additional research in the ethnographic domain.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Roadmap for IES Modeling and Simulation Activities

Since inception of the DOE-NE Integrated Energy Systems (IES) program, several program and modeling visions and roadmaps have been published. In 2017, the last modeling and simulation capability development plan was published. In 2020, a comprehensive roadmap for the DOE-NE Integrated Energy Systems program has been published. The current report is meant to update the 2017 modeling and simulation capability roadmap and complement the IES overall program roadmap published in 2020. The role of modeling and simulation within IES is to support the demonstration of new coupled integrated technologies along every step of the technology maturation from the strategic analysis of preferred system architecture to preliminary design, to laboratory testing, up to full commercial testing and integration. To achieve this role, modeling and simulation must be able to assess the technical performance and the economic viability of potential IES. Also, modeling and simulation must provide support for experimental evaluations, i.e., support component design and real time operations of experimental demonstration systems. Finally, modeling and simulation can help scale-up experimental systems to the final commercial systems. This report details the current state of the modeling and simulation efforts within IES for the above-mentioned areas, provides a gap analysis and proposes next steps for a time horizon over the next 4 to 5 years.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

SALSA: a new versatile readout chip for MPGD detectors

The SALSA chip is a future readout ASIC foreseen for the MPGD detectors, developed in the framework of the EIC collider project, to equip the MPGD trackers of the EPIC experiment. It is designed to be versatile, to be adapted to other usages of MPGD detectors like TPC or photon detectors. It integrates a frontend block and an ADC for each of the 64 channels, associated to a configurable DSP processor meant to correct data and reduce the raw data flux to limit the output bandwidth. It will be compatible with the continuous readout foreseen for the EPIC DAQ, but will also work in a triggered environment. Several prototypes are already produced in order to qualify the different blocks of the chip, in particular the frontend, the ADC and the clock generation. The next 32-channel prototype is currently under development and is planed to be produced in 2025. In conclusion, the final prototype will be produced and tested from 2026 for a production of the SALSA chip at the horizon of 2027.

Data processing↗

DOE OSTI2023

Roadmap for IES Modeling and Simulation Activities: Update 2023

Since inception of the DOE-NE Integrated Energy Systems (IES) program, several program and modeling visions and roadmaps have been published. In 2020, a last comprehensive roadmap for the DOE-NE Integrated Energy Systems program was published. In 2017, a separate modeling and simulation capability development plan was published that was extensively updated in 2022. The current report incrementally updates the 2022 modeling and simulation capability roadmap. This is not a new report, but individual sections have been updated to reflect recent accomplishments and new directions of the program. The role of modeling and simulation within IES is to support the demonstration of new coupled integrated technologies along every step of the technology maturation from the strategic analysis of preferred system architecture to preliminary design, to laboratory testing, up to full commercial testing and integration. To achieve this role, modeling and simulation must be able to assess the technical performance and the economic viability of potential IES. Also, modeling and simulation must provide support for experimental evaluations (i.e., support component design and real-time operations of experimental demonstration systems). Finally, modeling and simulation can help scale-up experimental systems to the final commercial systems. This report details the current state of the modeling and simulation efforts within IES for the above-mentioned areas, provides a gap analysis, and proposes next steps for a time horizon over the next years.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

A cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven short-term load forecasting methods with large-scale smart meter data

Electricity load forecasting is essential to utility operation and power grid stability. A wide spectrum of data-driven methods, ranging from linear regression models to more recent deep learning models have been adopted to forecast electric load over the years. However, there still lacks a holistic evaluation of the applicability of conventional statistical and machine learning based algorithms with respect to different temporal and spatial scopes, computational requirements, and sensitivity of model-tuning. Enabled by a large-scale electricity load profile dataset of over 40,000 residential customers in a utility region, we conducted a cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven load forecasting methods. Three regression-based and seven deep learning algorithms with different model configurations were evaluated in terms of their overall and peak load prediction accuracy, and training burdens, across spatial aggregation levels ranging from the transformer, feeder, substation, to neighborhood. We found, first, the load forecasting accuracy is constrained by a predictability boundary, influenced by the forecasting horizon and spatial aggregation level. Specifically, RandomForest, XGBoost, TFT, TSMixer, and TiDE models achieved less than 10 % prediction error for up to 96-h ahead forecasting for district, substation, and feeder levels, while other models struggle at long-horizon predictions; Second, for winter and summer peak load dates, most models were able to predict the peak demand timing within ± 1 h, but the prediction percentage error varied by models, with TFT and TiDE models being the top performers; Third, models with similar prediction accuracy can differ in training burden by an order of magnitude. Therefore, choosing model configurations that balance prediction performance and computational resource is an important practical consideration for large-scale deployment of the machine learning based load forecasting. The outcome of this study can guide researchers and practitioners to choose the proper load forecasting algorithms based on their problem scope, required accuracy, and available resources. The predictability boundary can serve as a benchmark for electricity load forecasting problems with new algorithms and datasets.

Li, Han↗

DOE OSTI2023

Scaling Optimal Allocation of Cloud Resources Using Lagrange Relaxation

The rapid growth of Cloud Computing (CC) has increased the variety of computing resources, storage, and communication services that pose significant new challenges for the efficient use of cloud resources. The cost-efficient allocation of cloud resources has become a decisive premise for the adoption of CC services. The cost-efficient selection and scheduling of these resources to meet the demands of a scientific workflow is a challenging problem that is exacerbated by the inclusion of multiple CC providers. In this paper, we present a novel strategy for the cost-efficient selection of CC resources using Lagrange relaxation. Our approach is based on preselection of resources and demand decomposition to create a series of smaller sub-problems, which allow the estimation of the best cost-structures and selection of CC service providers for a subset of the time period of the planning horizon. Decomposition of the demand is achieved through the boundary analysis of a continuous relaxation of the problem. Using the metrics defined in terms of the cost and time of completion, we demonstrate excellent performance in relation to optimal solutions. Our method reduced the computational time from hours to seconds for a representative 36-month problem and provided high-quality solutions (< 0.05% relative error). Given the importance of selecting resources and scheduling complex scientific workflows, we believe that this novel strategy will be beneficial for many researchers and users of cloud computing resources.

De La Torre, Luis↗

DOE OSTI2021

Radio-echo sounding of Crary Ice Rise reveals abundant marine ice in former ice shelf rifts and basal crevasses

Crary Ice Rise formed after the Ross Ice Shelf re-grounded ~1 kyr BP. We present new ice-penetrating radar data from two systems operating at center frequencies of 7 and 750 MHz that confirm the ice rise is composed of a former ice shelf buried by subsequent accumulation. Stacks of englacial diffraction hyperbolas are present almost everywhere across the central ice rise and extend up to ~350 m above the bed. In many cases, bed reflections beneath the diffraction hyperbolas are obscured for distances up to 1 km. Waveform modeling indicates that the diffraction hyperbolas are likely caused by marine ice deposits in former basal crevasses and rifts. The in-filling of rifts and basal crevasses may have strengthened the connection between the ice rise and the surrounding ice shelf, which could have influenced local and regional ice dynamics. Three internal reflection horizons mark the upper limit of disturbed ice and diffraction hyperbolas in different sections of the ice rise, indicating at least three stages of flow stabilization across the ice rise. A surface lineation visible in MODIS imagery corresponds spatially to deepening and strong deformation of these layers, consistent with the characteristics of former grounding lines observed elsewhere in Antarctica.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Signatures of rotating black holes in quantum superposition

A new approach for operationally studying the effects of spacetime in quantum superpositions of semiclassical states has recently been proposed by some of the authors. This approach was applied to the case of a (2+1)-dimensional Bañados-Teitelboim-Zanelli (BTZ) black hole in a superposition of masses, where it was shown that a two-level system interacting with a quantum field residing in the spacetime exhibits resonant peaks in its response at certain values of the superposed masses. Here, we extend this analysis to a mass-superposed rotating BTZ black hole, considering the case where the two-level system corotates with the black hole in a superposition of trajectories. We find similar resonances in the detector response function at rational ratios of the superposed outer horizon radii, specifically in the case where the ratio of the inner and outer horizons is fixed. This suggests a connection with Bekenstein’s seminal conjecture concerning the discrete horizon spectra of black holes in quantum gravity, generalized to the case of rotating black holes. Here, our results further indicate that deeper insights into quantum-gravitational phenomena may be accessible via tools in relativistic quantum information and curved spacetime quantum field theory.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Unveiling the nanoscale architectures and dynamics of protein assembly with in situ atomic force microscopy

Proteins play a vital role in different biological processes by forming complexes through precise folding with exclusive inter- and intra-molecular interactions. Understanding the structural and regulatory mechanisms underlying protein complex formation provides insights into biophysical processes. Furthermore, the principle of protein assembly gives guidelines for new biomimetic materials with potential applications in medicine, energy, and nanotechnology. Atomic force microscopy (AFM) is a powerful tool for investigating protein assembly and interactions across spatial scales (single molecules to cells) and temporal scales (milliseconds to days). It has significantly contributed to understanding nanoscale architectures, inter- and intra-molecular interactions, and regulatory elements that determine protein structures, assemblies, and functions. This review describes recent advancements in elucidating protein assemblies with in situ AFM. We discuss the structures, diffusions, interactions, and assembly dynamics of proteins captured by conventional and high-speed AFM in near-native environments and recent AFM developments in the multimodal high-resolution imaging, bimodal imaging, live cell imaging, and machine-learning-enhanced data analysis. These approaches show the significance of broadening the horizons of AFM and enable unprecedented explorations of protein assembly for biomaterial design and biomedical research.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Prediction of the development of islet autoantibodies through integration of environmental, genetic, and metabolic markers

The Environmental Determinants of the Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study has prospectively followed, from birth, children at increased genetic risk of type 1 diabetes. We evaluated the potential of machine learning to identify new biomarkers that predict imminent (within 6 months) development of persistent islet autoantibodies to insulin, GAD or IA-2 in TEDDY participants through integration of time-invariant risk factors with time-varying metabolomics. The predictive modeling was initiated with over 220 potential biomarkers; through ensemble-based feature evaluation, the optimal model included 42 biomarkers, returning a cross-validated receiver operating characteristic area under the curve of 0.74. The model identified a principal set of 20 time-invariant markers, including 16 single nucleotide polymorphisms and two HLA-DR genotypes, gestational age, and exposure to a prebiotic formula. Integration of the metabolome identified 22 high-priority metabolites and lipids, including adipic acid and ceramide d42:0, that predicted development of islet autoantibodies, dependent upon the time horizon. The majority (86%) of metabolites that predicted development of islet autoantibodies belonged to 3 pathways: lipid oxidation, phospholipase A2 signaling, and pentose phosphate pathway. TEDDY data suggest that these metabolic processes may play a role in triggering islet autoimmunity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Updated Void Catalogs of the SDSS DR7 Main Sample

Abstract We produce several public void catalogs using a volume-limited subsample of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7 (SDSS DR7). Using new implementations of three different void-finding algorithms, VoidFinder and two ZOBOV-based algorithms (VIDE and REVOLVER), we identify 1163, 531, and 518 cosmic voids with radii >10 h −1 Mpc, respectively, out to a redshift of z = 0.114 assuming a Planck 2018 cosmology, and 1184, 535, and 519 cosmic voids assuming a WMAP5 cosmology. We compute effective radii and centers for all voids and find none with an effective radius >54 h −1 Mpc. The median void effective radius is 15–19 h −1 Mpc for all three algorithms. We extract and discuss several properties of the void populations, including radial density profiles, the volume fraction of the catalog contained within voids, and the fraction of galaxies contained within voids. Using 64 mock galaxy catalogs created from the Horizon Run 4 N -body simulation, we compare simulated and observed void properties and find good agreement between the SDSS DR7 and mock catalog results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗