Results for “OUTPUT” — Page 12

DOE OSTI2024

A Bayesian Learning Approach to Wireless Outdoor Heatmap Construction using Deep Gaussian Process

We present a novel Bayesian learning approach to outdoor radio heatmap construction utilizing deep Gaussian process (GP). The proposed approach employs a two-layer hierarchy which consists of two cascaded Gaussian processes that are capable of modeling more complex input-output relations than standard single-layer Gaussian processes. Since deriving the exact model likelihood is challenging, a lower bound is optimized instead so that gradient descent-based methods can be performed to find out the optimal model parameters. Typically, inducing points are used in GPs to facilitate low-rank approximation of covariance (kernel) matrices for computation speedup. However, the inaccuracy induced by inducing points can accumulate when stacking multiple layers of GP which may hinder the performance of deep GP. Moreover, since inducing points need to be learned, having them at all layers of deep GP also incurs computational burden. To overcome the above challenges, in contrast to the canonical deep GP model, we use a modified architecture where a full standard GP resides in the first layer and inducing points are only introduced for the second layer. This modified architecture strikes a balance between model accuracy and training complexity. In the proposed model, the noise parameter of the first GP layer is also eliminated to improve the training efficiency as the noise parameter at the output of the second layer suffices to model the uncertainty in the output. The proposed approach is evaluated on real-world datasets, in the form of location-Received Signal Strength (RSS) pairs, collected from the Platform for Open Wireless Data-driven Experimental Research (POWDER) located at the campus of the University of Utah. Experiment results show that the proposed approach can achieve smaller prediction errors on various training and testing data configurations than DNN-based and GP-based methods.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Error in Photovoltaic Installation Metadata: Preprint

In this research, we quantify the level of metadata error for a fleet of 2860 photovoltaic (PV) systems, using metadata values provided by fleet owners. Using satellite imagery and time series analysis techniques available in open-source Python packages Panel-Segmentation and PVAnalytics, respectively, we evaluate the accuracy of PV system metadata such as location, azimuth, tilt, and mounting configuration (fixed tilt vs. tracking). We find that approximately 75% of provided latitude-longitude coordinates are within 190 meters of the actual solar installation. We were unable to link 7.8% of latitude-longitude coordinates to any solar installation via satellite imagery analysis. We evaluate the level of error in owner-provided mounting configuration (fixed tilt vs. single-axis tracking), finding only 8 systems with an incorrect mounting configuration. When evaluating azimuth and tilt parameters, we find that approximately 64% of the data is correct, with data for 860 systems (approximately 30%) not provided by system owners. To illustrate the importance of having correct solar metadata, we evaluate how incorrect metadata affects solar performance estimates by modeling system AC energy output at ground-truth vs. incorrect latitude-longitude coordinates, mounting configurations, and azimuth-tilt configurations. Energy output estimates can vary significantly if incorrect metadata parameters are used, with incorrect mounting configuration leading to the largest discrepancy with over 20% variation in expected energy output.

azimuth↗

DOE OSTI2024

Prototyping of a Rotary Triboelectric Nanogenerator for Power at Sea

Increasing at-sea power generation by Triboelectric Nanogenerator (TENG) energy harvesters towards the order of 1-Watt will create significant opportunities to power ocean observation buoys and distributed sensor nodes by extending mission time and increasing sensor payload. Of the many possible configurations of harvesting wave energy with TENGs, we document the rationale for choosing and developing a rotary TENG that operates by the freestanding mode. The rotary TENG prototype consists of two plates, a rotor and a stator, to take advantage of the various mechanisms of converting wave action into rotational motion. We have constructed a testing apparatus that allows us to vary several key parameters of the device: distance between rotor and stator, triboelectric material, rotational speed, number of electrodes and output load impedance. Preliminary results show that when driven at a constant 500 rpm, we can achieve a power density of 0.7 W/m3. A variable speed motor drives the rotor, which can be driven using a velocity profile informed by the equivalent to the output from a wave energy converter (WEC). The optimized rotational TENG can be stacked and driven by a single shaft, increasing the energy density of the device. The output of such a TENG could be used to power devices in the ocean at a low cost and high durability.

electrostatic generator↗

DOE OSTI2024

Timing measurement apparatus

Methods, devices and systems for providing accurate measurements of timing errors using optical techniques are described. An example timing measurement device includes an optical hybrid that receives two optical pulse trains and produces two or more phase shifted optical outputs. The timing measurement device further includes two or more optical filters that receive the outputs of the optical hybrid to produce multiple pulse signals with distinctive frequency bands. The device also includes one or more photodetectors and analog-to-digital converters to receive to produce electrical signals in the digital domain corresponding to the optical outputs of the hybrid. A timing error associated with the optical pulse trains can be determined using the electrical signals in digital domain based on a computed phase difference between a first frequency band signal and a second frequency band signal and a computed frequency difference between the first frequency band signal and the second frequency band.

DeVore, Peter Thomas Setsuda↗

DOE OSTI2024

System and method for neutron and gamma radiation detection using non-homogeneous material scintillator

The present disclosure relates to a method for detecting incoming radiation having a plurality of differing properties including at least one of differing types, differing energies or differing incoming directions. The method involves using a scintillator structure formed from first and second dissimilar scintillator materials, where the first and second dissimilar scintillator materials emit first and second different colors of light in response to the incoming radiation. A first light detector is used for detecting light having the first color, and a second light detector is used for detecting light having the second color. A first output signal is generated in response to the detection of light having the first color, and a second output signal is generated in response to detecting light having the second color. The first and second output signals are then analyzed to determine at least one property of the incoming radiation.

Brodsky, Jason Philip↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Risk-Informed Approach to Trustworthiness Assessment in Digital Twins-Based Autonomous Control

In autonomous control systems, digital twins (DTs) are used to perform diagnostic and prognostic functions. The trustworthiness of these DTs is dependent on quality and coverage of the training data, model accuracy and integrity of sensor data. This work introduces a methodology to determine the trustworthiness of a DT system given faulty sensor data using a risk informed approach. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) are used to propagate uncertainties and determine the probability of trustable recommendations. The decision to trust the control action provided by the DT is based on the DT output, expert opinion, and severity of problems. The performance of DTs is reliant on the data they are trained on. When they encounter out of distribution data, the trustworthiness of the recommendations decreases. To address this issue, we include an expert component that provides input on sensor degradation. For this, we utilize a generative artificial intelligence (AI) model, such as Generative Pretrained Transformer (GPT). The GPT functions as an expert with broad knowledge. The GPT is fine-tuned to understand and discriminate sensor degradation scenarios using manufactured data. This methodology is demonstrated through a case study on a Nearly Autonomous Management and Control System (NAMAC) during a steady state scenario. Various sensor degradation types with different severity levels are considered. Degraded sensor data is processed by the DT system and the fine-tuned GPT. Finally, using the BBN, we combine the GPT information and the DT output with its sources of uncertainty. This provides an output regarding the trustworthiness of the DT recommendation.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Scintillator based nuclear photovoltaic batteries for power generation at microwatts level

A nuclear photovoltaic battery uses scintillator to convert radiation into visible light, which is then collected by a photovoltaic (PV) cell to generate electricity. If the radiation is gamma-rays emitted from external sources, the battery may also be referred as gammavoltaic battery. In this study, a polycrystalline CdTe solar cell was optically coupled with a 2.0 cm × 2.0 cm × 1.0 cm Gadolinium Aluminum Gallium Garnet (GAGG) scintillator, and the resulting device was tested using intense gamma radiation fields from a Cs-137 (1.5 kRad/h) and a Co-60 (10 kRad/h) irradiator. Measurements with Cs-137 provided a maximum power output (P max ) of ~288 nW, with a short-circuit current density (J sc ) of ~1.22 μA/cm 2 and an open-circuit voltage (V oc ) of ~0.34 V. In contrast, Co-60 irradiator gave a P max of 1.5 μW, with a J sc of ~4.73 μA/cm 2 and a V oc of ~0.38 V. The CdTe was also paired with a Lutetium-Yttrium Oxyorthosilicate (LYSO) crystal and tested with the Cs-137 source. The experiment presents a scalable option to reach to higher power outputs by harvesting gamma radiation fields in many cases where high radiation field demands heavy shielding and is often regarded as unwanted waste.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

TEAMER: Triton Systems Oscillating Water Column Modeling Data and Report

This dataset provides the output of six Wave Energy Converter Simulator (WEC-Sim) simulations and accompanying documentation for the modeling of Triton Systems' oscillating water column (OWC) system at tank scale (validated using available data for tuning the model, Tests 1-2) and deployment scale (for which no validation data is available, Tests 4-6). Included are the output data in a MATLAB file structure, a comprehensive report on the modeling and design of the Triton OWC system, and a link to the WEC-Sim GitHub page. This work was supported by funding from TEAMER RFTS 5 (Request for Technical Support).

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2024

Is Clean Hydrogen Production a Good Fit for Questa? (Final Economic Impact Results) [Slides]

The Village of Questa, New Mexico is aiming to become a regional clean energy hub with robust and diverse employment opportunities for the local community supported by the energy sector and by other businesses inspired or attracted by abundant clean energy, outdoor recreation, and cultural opportunities. A coalition of stakeholders in the Village of Questa, comprising the Village, Kit Carson Electric Cooperative (KCEC), Questa Economic Development Fund, and Chevron, is exploring options to develop hydrogen production facilities as an opportunity to create jobs, provide reliable clean energy, and utilize former mine resources. Questa is home to a molybdenum mine owned by Chevron that closed in 2014. Several residents in Questa and surrounding communities lost their jobs when the mine closed and transitioned from active operations into environmental remediation. Although remediation efforts have been ongoing since 2014 and are expected to continue for at least 16 more years, the number of jobs with Chevron is much smaller now than it was before the closure. Between available workforce, brownfield land, and water rights formerly supporting mine operations but now in a transition period, there are considerable local resources that could be directed toward clean energy generation. Questa's electricity supply is already 100% solar during daylight hours thanks to Kit Carson Electric Cooperative's (KCEC's) strategic decision-making and partnering over the last decade. Now, Questa, KCEC, and Chevron are exploring the potential costs and benefits of siting an electrolytic hydrogen production facility and additional solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity in Questa to further advance the region's clean energy economy. In this report, we estimated the potential economic impacts (i.e., jobs, value added, gross output, tax revenue) of constructing and operating a combined hydrogen (32 MW polymer electrolyte membrane electrolizer + 7.5 MW fuel cell) and solar facility (22.5 MW) in the Village of Questa, as well as the resulting economic spillovers to Taos County and the state of New Mexico. We employ an input-output model that leverages IMPLAN's economic data for the region complemented by construction and operating expenses estimated by NREL and feedback from the local coalition to evaluate the direct, indirect and induced effects of the project construction (transient impacts) and operation (more permanent impacts). Based on the area's average trade profile, feedback from the coalition and current market conditions, these projects are expected to support 487 full-time equivalent jobs during construction, generating $\$24$ million in income for those workers and $\$82$ million in local economic activity in the state. Of those jobs, 106 are expected to be construction sector jobs. These investments are also estimated to add $\$36.5$ million to New Mexico's gross state product (GSP). In the Village of Questa, we estimate 16 jobs will be supported in construction and transportation industries, generating $\$0.9$ million in earnings. In Taos County, the construction phase is expected to support 285 jobs primarily in construction and professional services, while manufacturing jobs dominate the results for the Rest of New Mexico. The Village is also estimated to receive $\$0.9$ million in tax revenue from the construction phase alone. Once in operation, the project continues to impact the state and Questa. Around 20 jobs (full-time equivalent for each year of operation) are supported across New Mexico, with approximately 11 directly employed in Questa by both facilities. The total annual local economic activity supported by ongoing operations is just over $\$1.3$ million/yr, generating $\$1.6$ million/yr in additional income in the state. Annual operations are estimated to add $\$2.1$ million to the state's GSP. The Village is expected to receive around $\$43,000$/yr in tax revenue. Impacts vary significantly depending on which businesses are supplying materials, equipment and services, and where construction workers reside. Choosing local suppliers will most benefit Questa and the New Mexico economy, adding up to 500 jobs during construction and 13 long-term jobs. Local and state governments may consider ways to incentivize local businesses in order to maximize economic benefits.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Is Clean Hydrogen Production a Good Fit for Questa? Final Economic Impact Results

The Village of Questa, New Mexico is aiming to become a regional clean energy hub with robust and diverse employment opportunities for the local community supported by the energy sector and by other businesses inspired or attracted by abundant clean energy, outdoor recreation, and cultural opportunities. A coalition of stakeholders in the Village of Questa, comprising the Village, Kit Carson Electric Cooperative (KCEC), Questa Economic Development Fund, and Chevron, is exploring options to develop hydrogen production facilities as an opportunity to create jobs, provide reliable clean energy, and utilize former mine resources. Questa is home to a molybdenum mine owned by Chevron that closed in 2014. Several residents in Questa and surrounding communities lost their jobs when the mine closed and transitioned from active operations into environmental remediation. Although remediation efforts have been ongoing since 2014 and are expected to continue for at least 16 more years, the number of jobs with Chevron is much smaller now than it was before the closure. Between available workforce, brownfield land, and water rights formerly supporting mine operations but now in a transition period, there are considerable local resources that could be directed toward clean energy generation. Questa's electricity supply is already 100% solar during daylight hours thanks to Kit Carson Electric Cooperative's (KCEC's) strategic decision-making and partnering over the last decade. Now, Questa, KCEC, and Chevron are exploring the potential costs and benefits of siting an electrolytic hydrogen production facility and additional solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity in Questa to further advance the region's clean energy economy. In this report, we estimated the potential economic impacts (i.e., jobs, value added, gross output, tax revenue) of constructing and operating a combined hydrogen (32 MW polymer electrolyte membrane electrolizer + 7.5 MW fuel cell) and solar facility (22.5 MW) in the Village of Questa, as well as the resulting economic spillovers to Taos County and the state of New Mexico. We employ an input-output model that leverages IMPLAN's economic data for the region complemented by construction and operating expenses estimated by NREL and feedback from the local coalition to evaluate the direct, indirect and induced effects of the project construction (transient impacts) and operation (more permanent impacts). Based on the area's average trade profile, feedback from the coalition and current market conditions, these projects are expected to support 487 full-time equivalent jobs during construction, generating $\$24$ million in income for those workers and $\$82$ million in local economic activity in the state. Of those jobs, 106 are expected to be construction sector jobs. These investments are also estimated to add $\$36.5$ million to New Mexico's gross state product (GSP). In the Village of Questa, we estimate 16 jobs will be supported in construction and transportation industries, generating $\$0.9$ million in earnings. In Taos County, the construction phase is expected to support 285 jobs primarily in construction and professional services, while manufacturing jobs dominate the results for the Rest of New Mexico. The Village is also estimated to receive $\$0.9$ million in tax revenue from the construction phase alone. Once in operation, the project continues to impact the state and Questa. Around 20 jobs (full-time equivalent for each year of operation) are supported across New Mexico, with approximately 11 directly employed in Questa by both facilities. The total annual local economic activity supported by ongoing operations is just over $\$1.3$ million/yr, generating $\$1.6$ million/yr in additional income in the state. Annual operations are estimated to add $\$2.1$ million to the state's GSP. The Village is expected to receive around $\$43,000$/yr in tax revenue. Impacts vary significantly depending on which businesses are supplying materials, equipment and services, and where construction workers reside. Choosing local suppliers will most benefit Questa and the New Mexico economy, adding up to 500 jobs during construction and 13 long-term jobs. Local and state governments may consider ways to incentivize local businesses in order to maximize economic benefits.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Targeted Chemical Looping Materials Discovery by an Inverse Design

Chemical looping with oxygen uncoupling (CLOU) materials is actively sought for combustion of carbonaceous materials to achieve complete conversion and capture of carbon dioxide. These materials may play a vital role in reducing atmospheric carbon via negative carbon output. However, there is no one‐size‐fits‐all approach as different operating conditions and feedstocks may require different CLOU materials. As a result, the exploration and discovery of high‐performance CLOU materials can be a slow process. To address this challenge, a high‐throughput inverse machine learning workflow that identifies optimum materials from perovskite oxides for a given set of targets is developed—temperature and Gibbs free energy of oxygen formation. The model is trained on high‐throughput density functional theory calculations of CLOU materials and inverts the materials design process using a genetic algorithm to produce realistic substituted SrFeO 3‐δ compositions as output. Using the inverse model, it is able to identify several interesting new families of CLOU materials: Sr 1‐ x A x Fe 1‐ y B y O 3‐δ (e.g., A = Ca or K; B = Mg, Bi, Mn, Ni, Co, Cu, or Zn). These materials have shown promising properties, and some of them even outperform the benchmark material in terms of oxygen release kinetics under relevant CLOU operating conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Modelling the Sensitivity of Yukon River Biogeochemical Dynamics to Environmental and Chemical Drivers: Implications for Dissolved Organic Carbon

Riverine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is a critical biogeochemical component that transmits information from Arctic soils to the Arctic Ocean, significantly influencing carbon dynamics in this unique ecosystem. As DOC travels downstream, it undergoes transformations that alter its composition and fate. The Yukon River serves as an effective testbed for modelling these dynamics, offering sufficient scale to capture key biogeochemical processes while having a simpler hydrology than other major Arctic rivers, as well as long-term DOC observational data for model validation. To investigate DOC transformations during transit in the Yukon River, we adapted our Arctic Riverine Organic Macromolecular Model by applying regional-specific parameterisations. Our model simulates the transport and transformation of 15 organic macromolecules, including CDOM (coloured dissolved organic matter), proteins, polysaccharides, lipids, lignin phenols, and humic substances. Initial DOC concentrations were derived from observed soil organic carbon stocks in the surrounding watershed, while chemical transformations and hydrological dynamics were modelled along the river's course. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were conducted using a Monte Carlo approach under two experimental setups. Results revealed that variability in DOC and CDOM concentrations at the river mouth were predominantly driven by initial DOC concentration (~70% of variability explained) and dilution at confluence points (~10%). The refractory fraction of DOC explained 21%–88% of the variability in 14 macromolecular concentrations and ranked in the top five sensitive parameters for all outputs when a uniform parameter distribution was assumed. However, when a more likely variability was applied to this parameter, its influence on DOC and CDOM decreased. Given that refractory DOC accounts for ~80% of total DOC in Arctic Rivers, this suggests that most DOC resists degradation and retains its chemical composition during transport to the coastal environment. River velocity, which determines residence time, explained 8%–47% of the variability in protein, polysaccharide, lipid, pigments, and lignin phenols at the river mouth. In contrast, chemical turnover times contributed only 1%–5% to output variability. Our findings underscore the need for improved land-specific headwater observations, including seasonal soil moisture and lateral transport dynamics that control the initial tributary-specific DOC inputs. With accelerated permafrost thaw and increasing river discharge, extending our model to other Arctic River systems and seasons will enhance understanding of Arctic riverine carbon fluxes and their contributions to the Arctic Ocean.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hypersonic Jets of Detonation Products in the Hydrodynamic Collapse of Macroscopic Voids

Localizing the energetic output from detonation waves has been a long-standing challenge in applied detonation physics. Here, energy localization is achieved via machined millimeter scale voids in pressed samples of PBX 9501, an HMX (1,3,5,7-Tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocane)-based plastic bonded explosive. A main mechanism of energy localization in these systems, the formation of hydrodynamic jets of dense product gases, is characterized experimentally using a semicylindrical geometry in witness plate impact experiments and streak imaging of the jet propagating into the air. The distance at which the jet is optimally developed is identified and the supersonic flow structure in the vicinity of this feature is explored using hydrocode simulations. This analysis found that most of the kinetic energy of the hydrodynamic jet arises from pressure gradients induced by geometrically mediated squeeze flow lateral to the direction of detonation propagation. This work presents a new development in the control of energetic output from detonation waves and applications to detonation wave shaping are discussed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dielectric Engineering of ZnO@ZIF‐8 for High‐Performance Triboelectric Nanogenerators and Self‐Powered Humidity Sensors

Porous metal oxide–metal-organic framework (MO x @MOF) hybrids offer synergistic effects that enhance surface charge density, electronic structure, and textural properties, making them ideal for self-powered sensing applications. Here, uniform, and pinhole-free ternary porous ZnO–PTFE@ZIF-8 hybrid films are developed on room-temperature co-sputtered ZnO–polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) composite films, where ZnO serves as a self-sacrificial precursor to precisely regulate ZIF-8 (Zn-MeIm 2 ) growth through solvothermal methods. The resulting TENG achieves a high output power density of 0.67 mW cm −2 , attributed to the synergistic effects of fluorine-rich PTFE and methyl-functionalized ZIF-8, which enhance surface charge density and dielectric response. By tuning PTFE content in the ZnO–PTFE composite, the dielectric constant and triboelectric output is optimized. The ZP60@ZIF-8-based device also demonstrates excellent humidity sensing performance, with a wide detection range (20–99% RH) and ultrahigh sensitivity (R V % of 19 900%, R I % of 19 325% at 99% RH). These results position ZP@ZIF-8-based TENGs as promising platforms for next-generation self-powered sensors and smart wearable electronics.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Provable Repair of Vision Transformers

Vision Transformers have emerged as state-of-the-art image recognition tools, but may still exhibit incorrect behavior. Incorrect image recognition can have disastrous consequences in safety-critical real-world applications such as self-driving automobiles. In this paper, we present Provable Repair of Vision Transformers (PRoViT), a provable repair approach that guarantees the correct classification of images in a repair set for a given Vision Transformer without modifying its architecture. PRoViT avoids negatively affecting correctly classified images (drawdown) by minimizing the changes made to the Vision Transformer’s parameters and original output. Here, we observe that for Vision Transformers, unlike for other architectures such as ResNet or VGG, editing just the parameters in the last layer achieves correctness guarantees and very low drawdown. We introduce a novel method for editing these last-layer parameters that enables PRoViT to efficiently repair state-of-the-art Vision Transformers for thousands of images, far exceeding the capabilities of prior provable repair approaches.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Observable optimization for precision theory: machine learning energy correlators

The practice of collider physics typically involves the marginalization of multi-dimensional collider data to uni-dimensional observables relevant for some physics task. In many cases, such as classification or anomaly detection, the observable can be arbitrarily complicated, such as the output of a neural network. However, for precision measurements, the observable must correspond to something computable systematically beyond the level of current simulation tools. In this work, we demonstrate that precision-theory-compatible observable space exploration can be systematized by using neural simulation-based inference techniques from machine learning. We illustrate this approach by exploring the space of marginalizations of the energy 3-point correlator to optimize sensitivity to the top quark mass. We first learn the energy-weighted probability density from simulation, then search in the space of marginalizations for an optimal triangle shape. Although simulations and machine learning are used in the process of observable optimization, the output is an observable definition which can be then computed to high precision and compared directly to data without any memory of the computations which produced it. We find that the optimal marginalization is isosceles triangles on the sphere with a side ratio approximately $1 : 1 : \sqrt{2}$ (i.e. right triangles) within the set of marginalizations we consider.

Jets and Jet Substructure↗

DOE OSTI2024

Recalibration of missing low-frequency variability and trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract Multi-decadal trends in the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are under-represented by coupled general circulation models (CGCMs), consistent with a lack of autocorrelation in their NAO index series. This study proposes and tests two simple “reddening” approaches for correcting this problem in simulated indices based on simple one parameter short-term (AR; Auto-Regressive order 1) and long-term (FD; Fractional-Difference) time series filters. Using CGCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the FD filter successfully improves the autocorrelation structure of the NAO, and in turn the simulation of extreme trends, while the AR filter is less successful. The 1963–1993 NAO trend is the maximum 31-year trend in the historical period. Raw CGCMs underestimate the likelihood of this trend by a factor of ten but this discrepancy is corrected after reddening. CMIP6 future projections show that long-term (2024–2094) NAO ensemble mean trends systematically increase with the magnitude of radiative forcing: -2.4 to 3.5 hPa/century for low-to-high forcing after reddening (more than double the range using raw output). The related likelihood of future maximum 31year trends comparable to 1963–1993 ranges from 3 to 7% whereas none of these CMIP6 projections simulate this without reddening. Near-term projections of the next 31 years (2024–2054) are less sensitive than long term trends to the future scenario, showing weak-to-no forced trend. However, reddening increases the ensemble range by 74% (to +/-1 standard deviation/decade), which could increase/decrease regional climate change signals in the Northern Hemisphere by magnitudes that are underestimated when using raw CGCM output.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2025

Projection-based multifidelity linear regression for data-scarce applications

Surrogate modeling for systems with high-dimensional quantities of interest remains challenging, particularly when training data are costly to acquire. This work develops multifidelity methods for multiple-input multiple-output linear regression targeting data-limited applications with high-dimensional outputs. Multifidelity methods integrate many inexpensive low-fidelity model evaluations with limited, costly high-fidelity evaluations. We introduce two projection-based multifidelity linear regression approaches with linear and nonlinear features that leverage principal component basis vectors for dimensionality reduction and combine multifidelity data through: (i) a direct data augmentation using low-fidelity data, and (ii) a data augmentation incorporating explicit linear corrections between low-fidelity and high-fidelity data. The data augmentation approaches combine high-fidelity and low-fidelity data into a unified training set and train the linear regression model through weighted least squares with fidelity-specific weights. We introduce a proximity-based weighting scheme with automatic weight selection strategy through cross-validation. Here, the proposed multifidelity linear regression methods are demonstrated on approximating the surface pressure field of a hypersonic vehicle in flight and the temperature field on an aircraft disc braking system. In an ultra low-data regime of no more than twelve high-fidelity samples, multifidelity linear regression achieves approximately 2% – 12% improvement in median accuracy and a higher R 2 score relative to single-fidelity methods at comparable computational cost.

data augmentation↗