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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1989

On the ability of rough surface scattering approximations to predict hydrodynamic modulation of the ocean radar cross section - A numerical study

Scattering from the ocean surface at microwave frequencies is often described by the Bragg scattering model or the two-scale model. Here, the ability of these models to predict cross section modulation is investigated by comparing Bragg and two-scale cross-sections with cross sections calculated by a numerical electromagnetic approach. The numerical method is used as the standard of comparison. For slightly rough surfaces, the Bragg model is found to be very accurate, but for much rougher surfaces, the two-scale model is superior and should be used for calculating both the absolute cross section and the change in cross section due to spatial or temporal modulation of the ocean wave height spectrum. These results are relevant to the interpretation of SAR images of ocean surface phenomena which perturb the wave height spectrum at ripple wavelengths.

Durden, Stephen L.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Distinct responses of Asian summer monsoon to black carbon aerosols and greenhouse gases

Black carbon (BC) aerosols emitted from natural and anthropogenic sources induce positive radiative forcing and global warming, which in turn significantly affect the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). However, many aspects of the BC effect on the ASM remain elusive and largely inconsistent among previous studies, which is strongly dependent on different low-level thermal feedbacks over the Asian continent and the surrounding ocean. This study examines the response of the ASM to BC forcing in comparison with the effect of doubled greenhouse gases (GHGs) by analyzing the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) simulations under an extremely high BC level (10 times modern global BC emissions or concentrations, labeled BC×10) from nine global climate models (GCMs). The results show that although BC and GHGs both enhance the ASM precipitation minus evaporation (P–E; a 13.6 % increase for BC forcing and 12.1 % for GHGs from the nine-model ensemble, respectively), there exists a much larger uncertainty in changes in ASM P–E induced by BC than by GHGs. The summer P–E is increased by 7.7 % to 15.3 % due to these two forcings over three subregions, including East Asian, South Asian and western North Pacific monsoon regions. Further analysis of moisture budget reveals distinct mechanisms controlling the increases in ASM P–E induced by BC and GHGs. The change in ASM P–E by BC is dominated by the dynamic effect due to the enhanced large-scale monsoon circulation, whereas the GHG-induced change is dominated by the thermodynamic effect through increasing atmospheric water vapor. Radiative forcing of BC significantly increases the upper-level atmospheric temperature over the Asian region to enhance the upper-level meridional land–sea thermal gradient (MLOTG), resulting in a northward shift of the upper-level subtropical westerly jet and an enhancement of the low-level monsoon circulation, whereas radiative forcing of GHGs significantly increases the tropical upper-level temperature, which reduces the upper-level MLOTG and suppresses the low-level monsoonal circulation. Hence, our results indicate a different mechanism of BC climate effects under the extremely high BC level: that BC forcing significantly enhances the upper-level atmospheric temperature over the Asian region, determining ASM changes, instead of low-level thermal feedbacks as indicated by previous studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

A Primordial Atmospheric Origin of Hydrospheric Deuterium Enrichment on Mars

The deuterium-to-hydrogen (D/H or 2H/1H) ratio of Martian atmospheric water (~6× standard mean ocean water, SMOW) is higher than that of known sources, requiring planetary enrichment. A recent measurement by NASA’s Mars Science Laboratory rover Curiosity of Hesperian-era (>3 Ga) clays yields a D/H ratio ~3×SMOW, demonstrating that most of the enrichment occurs early in Mars’s history, reinforcing the conclusions of Martian meteorite studies. As on Venus, Mars’s D/H enrichment is widely thought to reflect preferential loss to space of 1H (protium) relative to 2H (deuterium), but both the cause and the global environmental context of large and early hydrogen losses remain to be determined. Here, we apply a recent model of primordial atmosphere evolution to Mars, link the magma ocean of the accretion epoch with a subsequent water-ocean epoch, and calculate the behavior of deuterium for comparison with the observed record. In contrast to earlier works that consider Martian D/H fractionation in atmospheres in which hydrogen reservoirs are present exclusively as H2O or H2, here we consider 2-component (H2O-H2) outgassed atmospheres in which both condensed (H2O) and escaping (H2) components – and their interaction – are explicitly calculated. We find that a a ≈2-3× hydrospheric deuterium-enrichment is produced rapidly if the Martian magma ocean is chemically reducing at last equilibration with the primordial atmosphere, making H2 and CO the initially dominant species, with minor abundances of H2O and CO2. Reducing gases – in particular H2 – can cause substantial greenhouse warming and prevent a water ocean from freezing immediately after the magma ocean epoch. We find that greenhouse warming due to plausible H2 inventories (pH2=1-102 bars) yields surface temperatures high enough (Ts=290-560 K) to stabilize a water ocean and produce an early hydrological cycle through which surface water can be circulated. Moreover, the pressure-temperature conditions are high enough to produce ocean-atmosphere H2O-H2 isotopic equilibrium through gas-phase deuterium exchange such that surface H2O strongly concentrates deuterium relative to H2, which preferentially takes up protium and escapes from the primordial atmosphere. The efficient physical separation of deuterium-rich (H2O) and deuterium-poor (H2) species via condensation permits equilibrium isotopic partitioning and early atmospheric escape to be recorded in modern crustal reservoirs. The proposed scenario of primordial H2-CO-rich outgassing and escape suggests significant durations (>Myr) of chemical conditions on the Martian surface conducive to prebiotic chemistry immediately following magma ocean crystallization.

Mars↗
NASA NTRS1995

Lagrangian mixed layer modeling of the western equatorial Pacific

Processes that control the upper ocean thermohaline structure in the western equatorial Pacific are examined using a Lagrangian mixed layer model. The one-dimensional bulk mixed layer model of Garwood (1977) is integrated along the trajectories derived from a nonlinear 1 1/2 layer reduced gravity model forced with actual wind fields. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data are used to estimate surface freshwater fluxes for the mixed layer model. The wind stress data which forced the 1 1/2 layer model are used for the mixed layer model. The model was run for the period 1987-1988. This simple model is able to simulate the isothermal layer below the mixed layer in the western Pacific warm pool and its variation. The subduction mechanism hypothesized by Lukas and Lindstrom (1991) is evident in the model results. During periods of strong South Equatorial Current, the warm and salty mixed layer waters in the central Pacific are subducted below the fresh shallow mixed layer in the western Pacific. However, this subduction mechanism is not evident when upwelling Rossby waves reach the western equatorial Pacific or when a prominent deepening of the mixed layer occurs in the western equatorial Pacific or when a prominent deepening of the mixed layer occurs in the western equatorial Pacific due to episodes of strong wind and light precipitation associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Comparison of the results between the Lagrangian mixed layer model and a locally forced Eulerian mixed layer model indicated that horizontal advection of salty waters from the central Pacific strongly affects the upper ocean salinity variation in the western Pacific, and that this advection is necessary to maintain the upper ocean thermohaline structure in this region.

Shinoda, Toshiaki↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Ionosphere and Ocean Altimetry

The accuracy of satellite-based single-frequency radar ocean altimeters benefits from calibration of the total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere below the satellite. Data from the global network of Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers provides timely, continuous, and globally well-distributed measurements of ionospheric electron content. We have created a daily automated process called Daily Global Ionospheric Map (Daily-GIM) whose primary purpose is to use global GPS data to provide ionospheric calibration data for the Geosat Follow-On (GFO) ocean altimeter. This process also produces an hourly time-series of global maps of the electron content of the ionosphere. This system is designed to deliver "quick-look" ionospheric calibrations within 24 hours with 90+% reliability and with a root-mean-square accuracy of 2 cm at 13.6 GHz. In addition we produce a second product within 72 hours which takes advantage of additional GPS data which were not available in time for the first process. The diagram shows an example of a comparison between TEC data from the Topographic Experiment (TOPEX) ocean altimeter and Daily-GIM. TEC are displayed in TEC units, TECU, where 5 TECU is 1 cm at 13.6 GHz. Data from a single TOPEX track is shown. Also shown is the Bent climatological model TEC for the track. Although the GFO satellite is not yet in its operational mode, we have been running Daily-GIM reliably (much better than 90%) with better than 2-cm accuracy (based on comparisons against TOPEX) for several months. When timely ephemeris files for the European Remote Sensing Satellite 2 (ERS-2) are available, daily ERS-2 altimeter ionospheric calibration files are produced. When GFO ephemeris files are made available to us, we produce GFO ionosphere calibration files. Users of these GFO ionosphere calibration files find they are a great improvement over the alternative International Reference Ionosphere 1995 (IRI-95) climatological model. In addition, the TOPEX orbit determination team at JPL has been using the global ionospheric maps to calibrate the single frequency GPS data from the TOPEX receiver, and report highly significant improvements in the ephemeris. The global ionospheric maps are delivered daily to the International GPS Service (IGS), making them available to the scientific community. Additional information is contained in the original.

Lindqwister, Ulf J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

AIRS Infrared Polarization Sensitivity and In-Flight Observations

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is a space-based instrument that measures the upwelling atmospheric spectrum in the infrared. AIRS is one of several instruments on the EOS-Aqua spacecraft launched on May 4, 2002: Typically, instrument polarization is not a concern in the infrared because the scene is usually not significantly polarized. A small amount of polarization is expected over ocean, which can be seen in the AIRS 3.7 (micro)m window channels. The polarization is seen as a signal difference between two channels with the same center frequency but different polarizations. The observations are compared to a model that relies on measurements of instrument polarization made pre-flight. A first look at a comparison of the observations of sea surface polarization to expectations is presented.

infrared↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA’s Orion Crew Module Seakeeping Simulation and Test Comparisons in Ocean Wave Environments

The NASA Orion Crew Module (CM) post-landing seakeeping and uprighting capabilities are being evaluated across a variety of ocean wave conditions. This paper provides an overview of quarter-scale and full-scale test data and how it compares with the CM seakeeping dynamic simulation results evaluated using Wave Energy Convertor Simulator (WEC-Sim).This includes a discussion of the status of the dynamic modeling effort, correlation of model inputs with the wave field from the test, and a comparison of the results against the physical test data with emphasis on the full-scale results. Analysis in the frequency domain showed similar response characteristics between the model and the test and shows energy peaks corresponding to both the natural response and the forced response due to the wave environment. Time domain comparisons showed that the linear WEC-Sim model under predicted the amplitude of the pitch and roll motion of the test article, with improved matching for smaller, longer crested waves. An attempt was made to correlate the pitch/roll response to incident wave slope to account for a possible delay in the BTA’s response. The results did not show a strong relationship in the response characteristics to incident wave slope, but better correlation was seen by comparing responses in the frequency domain. Evaluation of the simulation’s ability to match test results aided in understanding the current fidelity of the CM model in WEC-Sim and identifying areas for model improvement

Abigail Lockard↗
NASA NTRS2019

Chlorophyll Algorithms for Ocean Color Sensors - OC4, OC5 and OC6

A high degree of consistency and comparability among chlorophyll algorithms is necessary to meet the goals of merging data from concurrent overlapping ocean color missions for increased coverage of the global ocean and to extend existing time series to encompass data from recently launched missions and those planned for the near future, such as PACE, OLCI, HawkEye, EnMAP and SABIA-MAR. To accomplish these goals, we developed 65 empirical ocean color (OC) chlorophyll algorithms for 25 satellite instruments using the largest available and most globally representative database of coincident in situ chlorophyll a and remote sensing reflectances. Excellent internal consistency was achieved across these OC ‘Version -7’ algorithms, as demonstrated by a median regression slope and coefficient of determination (R (sup 2)) of 0.985 and 0.859, respectively, among 903 pairwise comparisons of OC-modeled chlorophyll. SeaWiFS and MODIS-Aqua satellite-to-in situ match-up results indicated equivalent, and sometimes superior, performance to current heritage chlorophyll algorithms.

ocean color↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mapping Aerosol Lidar Ratios Over Ocean Using Constrained Retrievals and A Global Aerosol Model

The current NASA Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) algorithms assign one lidar ratio (i.e., extinction-to-backscatter ratio; LR) value globally for each of the seven tropospheric aerosol types. In a future data products release, the CALIPSO project aims to improve these algorithms through the development of regional and seasonal LR climatologies. In this work, aerosol LRs are inferred through Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) backscatter profiles constrained by collocated aerosol optical depth (AOD) from Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. This analysis is subsampled for those profiles that are cloud-free and contain only one CALIOP-classified aerosol type (e.g., marine). The CALIOP profiles are then collocated with aerosol volume fractions obtained through Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model simulations. In this presentation, we show that the twelve-year (June 2006-August 2018) mean spatial distributions of inferred aerosol LRs for CALIOP-classified marine aerosols correspond inversely with patterns of GOCART sea salt volume fraction (SSVF). For example, smaller SSVFs (< 65%) and larger LRs (> 55 sr), are found near land masses. This is indicative of the influence of over-land aerosols (e.g., pollution and biomass burning smoke). In the remote oceans (i.e., regions likely less impacted by non-sea salt aerosols), larger SSVFs (> 95%) and smaller LRs (< 25 sr) are found. The developed relationship between the GOCART SSVFs and MODIS AOD constrained LRs (polynomial fit intersect values of ~56 sr for SSVF of 0% and ~21 sr for SSVF of 100%) is used to produce model-assisted climatological LR maps on seasonal scales. Additionally, we show maps of inferred LRs from constrained retrievals using the CALIPSO Ocean Derived Column Optical Depth (ODCOD) product and comparisons with those from the MODIS analyses. The technique demonstrated in this study not only benefits CALIPSO in the near-term, but similar methods can be applied to future spaceborne elastic backscatter lidars with collocated passive sensors, such as those associated with the upcoming NASA Atmosphere Observing System (AOS).

Travis Toth↗
DOE OSTI2020

Carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedbacks in CMIP6 models and their comparison to CMIP5 models

Results from the fully and biogeochemically coupled simulations in which CO 2 increases at a rate of 1 % yr –1 (1pctCO2) from its preindustrial value are analyzed to quantify the magnitude of carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedback parameters which measure the response of ocean and terrestrial carbon pools to changes in atmospheric CO 2 concentration and the resulting change in global climate, respectively. The results are based on 11 comprehensive Earth system models from the most recent (sixth) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and compared with eight models from the fifth CMIP (CMIP5). The strength of the carbon–concentration feedback is of comparable magnitudes over land (mean ± standard deviation = 0.97 ± 0.40 PgC ppm –1 ) and ocean (0.79 ± 0.07 PgC ppm –1 ), while the carbon–climate feedback over land (–45.1 ± 50.6 PgC °C –1 ) is about 3 times larger than over ocean (–17.2 ± 5.0 PgC °C –1 ). The strength of both feedbacks is an order of magnitude more uncertain over land than over ocean as has been seen in existing studies. These values and their spread from 11 CMIP6 models have not changed significantly compared to CMIP5 models. The absolute values of feedback parameters are lower for land with models that include a representation of nitrogen cycle. The transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) from the 11 CMIP6 models considered here is 1.77 ± 0.37 °C EgC –1 and is similar to that found in CMIP5 models (1.63 ± 0.48 °C EgC –1 ) but with somewhat reduced model spread. The expressions for feedback parameters based on the fully and biogeochemically coupled configurations of the 1pctCO2 simulation are simplified when the small temperature change in the biogeochemically coupled simulation is ignored. Decomposition of the terms of these simplified expressions for the feedback parameters is used to gain insight into the reasons for differing responses among ocean and land carbon cycle models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1987

The response of SAR imagery to azimuth travelling ocean surface waves as determined from shuttle SAR imagery

Comparisons between two-dimensional ocean wave spectra, derived from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery, and two-dimensional wave spectra from independent instruments have shown good agreement. The procedure by which raw SAR image intensity-variance spectra are converted to estimates of wave spectra is dependent upon models of how a SAR is able to image ocean waves. The greatest uncertainty exists about the mechanism by which azimuth (along track) traveling waves are imaged. In this paper, independent wave spectra from an airborne, radar ocean wave spectrometer (ROWS) are systematically compared with spatially and temporally coincident shuttle SAR image intensity-variance spectra to determine an optimum description of the relationship between the two. The result of these comparisons is to demonstrate that a SAR image intensity-variance spectrum is nearly proportional to the ocean wave slope-variance spectrum for azimuth traveling waves.

Monaldo, Frank M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Deep Ocean Warming Assessed from Altimeters, GRACE, 3 In-situ Measurements, and a Non-Boussinesq OGCM

Observational surveys have shown significant oceanic bottom water warming, but they are too spatially and temporally sporadic to quantify the deep ocean contribution to the present-day sea level rise (SLR). In this study, altimetry sea surface height (SSH), Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) ocean mass, and in situ upper ocean (0-700 m) steric height have been assessed for their seasonal variability and trend maps. It is shown that neither the global mean nor the regional trends of altimetry SLR can be explained by the upper ocean steric height plus the GRACE ocean mass. A non-Boussinesq ocean general circulation model (OGCM), allowing the sea level to rise as a direct response to the heat added into the ocean, is then used to diagnose the deep ocean steric height. Constrained by sea surface temperature data and the top of atmosphere (TOA) radiation measurements, the model reproduces the observed upper ocean heat content well. Combining the modeled deep ocean steric height with observational upper ocean data gives the full depth steric height. Adding a GRACE-estimated mass trend, the data-model combination explains not only the altimetry global mean SLR but also its regional trends fairly well. The deep ocean warming is mostly prevalent in the Atlantic and Indian oceans, and along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, suggesting a strong relation to the oceanic circulation and dynamics. Its comparison with available bottom water measurements shows reasonably good agreement, indicating that deep ocean warming below 700 m might have contributed 1.1 mm/yr to the global mean SLR or one-third of the altimeter-observed rate of 3.11 +/- 0.6 mm/yr over 1993-2008.

sea level↗
NASA NTRS1999

Estimation of Non-Seasonal Oceanic Mass Redistribution and its Geodynamic Effects from the Topex/Poseidon Observation

Mass redistribution in terms of angular momentum will change the Earth's rotation under the conservation of angular momentum. It also changes the external gravitational field according to Newton's gravitational law. These small geodynamic variations can be measured very accurately by modem space geodetic techniques. We report on new estimates of the oceanic tidal angular momentum and hence the tidal variations in the Earth's rotation rate and polar motion. These are deduced from the new tidal solutions GOT99 and TPXO.3, plus M2 and Mf estimates (with error bars) from TPXO.4a. Comparisons with observed diurnal/semidiurnal tidal variations are generally similar to previous model estimates. Comparisons of models and observations of Mf polar motion are confused, with neither models nor observations agreeing among themselves or with each other. Part of this is caused by differences in Mf currents; model TPXO.4 shows current-intensive Rossby modes along western boundaries of major basins, which are indeed expected on theoretical grounds. Unfortunately, there are no reliable in situ observations of Mf currents useful for comparing models. On non-tidal oceanic mass redistribution we compute the principal components of the multi-year T/P sea surface height (SSH) field using EOF (empirical orthogonal functions) taking into consideration of the latitude-dependent area weighting. Emphasis is placed upon non-seasonal and interannual oscillations on regional scales, including ENSO and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Steric corrections to the observed SSH due to sea surface temperature changes (which has no geodynamic effects) is now under study using POCM ocean model output.

Chao, Benjamin F.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Comparison between global latent heat flux computed from multisensor (SSM/I and AVHRR) and from in situ data

Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) and satellite-derived parameters are input to a similarity theory-based model and treated in completely equivalent ways to compute global latent heat flux (LHF). In order to compute LHF exclusively from satellite measurements, an empirical relationship (Q-W relationship) is used to compute the air mixing ratio from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) precipitable water W and a new one is derived to compute the air temperature also from retrieved W(T-W relationship). First analyses indicate that in situ and satellite LHF computations compare within 40%, but systematic errors increase the differences up to 100% in some regions. By investigating more closely the origin of the discrepancies, the spatial sampling of ship reports has been found to be an important source of error in the observed differences. When the number of in situ data records increases (more than 20 per month), the agreement is about 50 W/sq m rms (40 W/sq m rms for multiyear averages). Limitations of both empirical relationships and W retrieval errors strongly affect the LHF computation. Systematic LHF overestimation occurs in strong subsidence regions and LHF underestimation occurs within surface convergence zones and over oceanic upwelling areas. The analysis of time series of the different parameters in these regions confirms that systematic LHF discrepancies are negatively correlated with the differences between COADS and satellite-derived values of the air mixing ratio and air temperature. To reduce the systematic differences in satellite-derived LHF, a preliminary ship-satellite blending procedure has been developed for the air mixing ratio and air temperature.

Jourdan, Didier↗
NASA NTRS2013

Megadroughts in Southwestern North America in ECHO-G Millennial Simulations and Their Comparison to Proxy Drought Reconstructions

Simulated hydroclimate variability in millennium-length forced transient and control simulations from the ECHAM and the global Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation (ECHO-G) coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) is analyzed and compared to 1000 years of reconstructed Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) variability from the North American Drought Atlas (NADA). The ability of the model to simulate megadroughts in the North American southwest is evaluated. (NASW: 25deg42.5degN, 125deg-105degW). Megadroughts in the ECHO-G AOGCM are found to be similar in duration and magnitude to those estimated from the NADA. The droughts in the forced simulation are not, however, temporally synchronous with those in the paleoclimate record, nor are there significant differences between the drought features simulated in the forced and control runs. These results indicate that model-simulated megadroughts can result from internal variability of the modeled climate system rather than as a response to changes in exogenous forcings. Although the ECHO-G AOGCM is capable of simulating megadroughts through persistent La Nina-like conditions in the tropical Pacific, other mechanisms can produce similarly extreme NASW moisture anomalies in the model. In particular, the lack of low-frequency coherence between NASW soil moisture and simulated modes of climate variability like the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Pacific decadal oscillation, and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation during identified drought periods suggests that stochastic atmospheric variability can contribute significantly to the occurrence of simulated megadroughts in the NASW. These findings indicate that either an expanded paradigm is needed to understand multidecadal hydroclimate variability in the NASW or AOGCMs may incorrectly simulate the strength and/or dynamics of the connection between NASW hydroclimate variability and the tropical Pacific.

variability↗
NASA NTRS1986

Magnetization modeling in the north and equatorial Atlantic Ocean using MAGSAT data

Magsat 2 x 2-deg scalar anomalous-magnetic-field data (Langel et al., 1982) for the northern and equatorial Atlantic are inverted and combined with physiographic data and laboratory results on the magnetization of oceanic rocks and the oceanic crust to construct models explaining the shorter-wavelength component of the anomalies. An annihilator is applied to the inversion results to eliminate reverse-magnetized sources and facilitate comparisons of areas inverted separately, and a latitude effect on source spacing is tentatively attributed to greater noise contamination at lower latitudes. It is found that remanent magnetization combined with considerable crustal thickening can best explain the high intensity levels observed, although viscous magnetization or contamination of the data by noncrustal sources must also be considered.

Hayling, K. L.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Unforced decadal fluctuations in a coupled model of the atmosphere and ocean mixed layer

Global average temperature in a 100-year control run of a model used for greenhouse gas response simulations showed low-frequency natural variability comparable in magnitude to that observed over the last 100 years. The model variability was found to be barotropic in the atmosphere, and located in the tropical strip with largest values near the equator in the Pacific. The model variations were traced to complex, low-frequency interactions between the meridional sea surface temperature gradients in the eastern equatorial Pacific, clouds at both high and low levels, and features of the tropical atmospheric circulation. The variations in these and other model parameters appear to oscillate between two limiting climate states. The physical scenario accounting for the oscillations on decadal time scales is almost certainly not found in the real world on shorter time scales due to limited resolution and the omission of key physics (e.g., equatorial ocean dynamics) in the model. The real message is that models with dynamical limitations can still produce significant long-term variability. Only a thorough physical diagnosis of such simulations and comparisons with decadal-length data sets will allow one to decide if faith in the model results is, or is not, warranted.

Barnett, T. P.↗