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At least 217 records · Page 12

Investigating the effects of cooperative transmission expansion planning on grid performance during heat waves with varying spatial scales

There is growing recognition of the advantages of interregional transmission capacity to decarbonize electricity grids. A less explored benefit is potential performance improvements during extreme weather events. This study examines the impacts of cooperative transmission expansion planning using an advanced modeling chain to simulate power grid operations of the United States Western Interconnection in 2019 and 2059 under different levels of collaboration between transmission planning regions. Two historical heat waves in 2019 with varying geographical coverage are replayed under future climate change in 2059 to assess the transmission cooperation benefits during grid stress. The results show that cooperative transmission planning yields the best outcomes in terms of reducing wholesale electricity prices and minimizing energy outages both for the whole interconnection and individual transmission planning regions. Compared to individual planning, cooperative planning reduces wholesale electricity prices by 64.3 % and interconnection-wide total costs (transmission investments + grid operations) by 34.6 % in 2059. It also helps decrease greenhouse gas emissions by increasing renewable energy utilization. However, the benefits of cooperation diminish during the widespread heat wave when all regions face extreme electricity demand due to higher space cooling needs. Despite this, cooperative transmission planning remains advantageous, particularly for California Independent System Operator with significant diurnal solar generation capacity. This study suggests that cooperation in transmission planning is crucial for reducing costs and increasing reliability both during normal periods and extreme weather events. It highlights the importance of optimizing the strategic investments to mitigate challenges posed by wider-scale extreme weather events of the future.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Looking Beyond Bill Savings to Equity in Renewable Energy Microgrid Deployment

Microgrids powered by renewable energy can provide backup power to critical infrastructure during grid outages. These systems can also play an important role in advancing energy justice by providing economic, environmental, health, and resilience benefits for underserved communities. The value of microgrids is often measured by the economic savings and resilience provided, but there are other energy justice factors that should be considered. This paper describes a methodology for quantifying broader costs and benefits including utility bill savings, value of resilience, social cost of carbon, public health costs, and jobs associated with the construction and operation of microgrids. We evaluate these factors at three case study sites and find that including energy justice values in the cost-benefit analysis of microgrids can change investment decisions. When climate, health, resilience, and job creation are considered, cost-optimal microgrids include more renewable generation, leading to a 52-82% reduction in emissions and diesel fuel use. The net present values of the microgrids grow from negative $626,000-843,000 in the diesel only case to $10-16 million in the hybrid microgrid case and $12-19 million in the renewable microgrid case, indicating potential for greater microgrid deployment if energy justice values are incorporated in decision making. However, we also see large increases in capital expenses, which could limit deployment unless accompanied by innovative financing measures. These findings may be useful to communities as they seek to strengthen resilience to natural disasters while also improving public health, meeting climate goals, and providing economic opportunity for residents.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

RAPIDS: Reconciling Availability, Accuracy, and Performance in Managing Geo-Distributed Scientific Data

In modern science, big data plays an increasingly important role. Many scientific applications, such as running simulations on supercomputers or conducting experiments on advanced instruments, produce huge amount of data at unprecedented speed. Analyzing and understanding such big data is the key for scientists to make scientific breakthroughs. However, data might become unavailable for scientists to access when outages or maintenance of the storage system occur, which severely hinders scientific discovery. To improve the data availability, data duplication and erasure coding (EC) are often used. But as the scientific data gets larger, using these two methods can cause considerable storage and network overhead.In this paper, we propose RAPIDS, a hybrid approach that combines the multigrid-based error-bounded lossy compression with erasure coding, to significantly reduce the storage and network overhead required for maintaining high data availability. Our experiments show that RAPIDS reduces the storage overhead by up to 7.5x and network overhead by up to 3x to achieve the same level of availability compared to the regular EC method. We improve RAPIDS by building two models to optimize the fault tolerance configurations and data gathering strategy. We demonstrate that RAPIDS significantly improves performance when running on many CPU cores in parallel or on GPUs.

Wan, Lipeng↗

Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Recovery Tool)

Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Restoration Tool): Each year hurricanes and tropical storms in the United States damage critical infrastructure assets, disrupt the services they provide, and cause millions to billions of dollars in economic impacts due to extended recovery times. The Storm-DEPART tool and analytical output enable more impactful data-driven decision-making capabilities and strengthen national-level disaster preparedness, response, and recovery. Storm-DEPART, built through multi-month collaboration between Entergy and INL, combines Entergy’s critical infrastructure inventory data with weather forecasts to predict damages to Electric utility’s assets due to natural disasters and the estimated recovery support needed, including time, materials, and resource allocation. In the event of an approaching hurricane, this innovative solution can assess potential damage to power generation capacity, transmission grids, distribution networks, and communications assets from wind bands, storm surge, and flooding. With more effective predictions, Entergy can more efficiently allocate resources to mitigate impacts and optimize recovery for customers. Storm-DEPART also allows Electric utilities the ability to apply a planning scenario and model expected damage to better inform infrastructure restoration needs leading to enhance system resiliency. The technology is fully transferrable to other electric utilities with the same damage estimating challenges. The INL team is working on the evolution of Storm-DEPART to include ice event damage prediction framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Leak detection in a subcritical boiler

Thermal power plants experience cycling duty leading to the fatigue of the boiler and heat exchanger tubes. As a result, tube failures occur frequently in coal fired fleets leading to forced outages. Furthermore, because the tube leaks have been the major source of unwanted shutdowns and the number of outages is increasing, present work focuses on the detection and isolation of the leak in a subcritical boiler based upon the process data from a commercial coalfired power plant. The mass balance equation around the steam drum was analyzed using timeseries data collected from a 300 MW power plant. The ratio of the feed water mass flow rate to the steam mass flow rate was defined as a key parameter for detecting leaks. The difference in slope between the feedwater and steam mass flow rate during the normal and faulty operations was established as the upper control limit for real time monitoring. To reduce false alarm rates that arise when raw signal is directly compared against the threshold due to common process fluctuations, an optimal filter was derived for smoothing. It was found that the optimal filter reacted much more quickly to process changes than an exponential moving average filter, around 8 h earlier on average. Occurrence of relatively high false alarm rates even in the filtered responses was related to the cycling of the boiler from the base load condition. Variable threshold was established to keep false alarm rates to the minimum while maintaining the leak detection rate. Finally, the leak was located at the economizer and this could readily be isolated by investigating the magnitude of the mass flow rates ratio and the temperature at the economizer outlet.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Integrating Resilience Planning in Distribution System Planning

Electric utilities, regulators, and stakeholders face increasing risks of severe storms, freezes, floods, and heat waves damaging grid infrastructure and causing power outages—and increasing risks of utility equipment igniting wildfires. At the same time, customer electricity rates have risen substantially in recent years, due in part to replacing aging infrastructure and improving resilience to natural hazards and physical threats. To address these challenges, utilities are beginning to move beyond traditional, siloed planning processes to balance resilience with other fundamental grid objectives such as affordability, reliability, safety, and serving new loads. This study presents a framework for states and utilities that want to advance integration of resilience and distribution planning processes to improve planning efficiency, better prioritize cost-effective grid expenditures, and balance planning objectives. The framework includes 7 key integration points between these planning processes: -Strategy process -Data -Threat assessments -Solution identification and prioritization -Optimization opportunities -Consideration of other grid needs -Metrics Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory reviewed utility distribution system plans and interviewed subject matter experts to identify emerging practices for each of the 7 integration points. This report presents these practices, which can be used as a guide toward more holistic planning and cohesive investment strategies. It also includes 3 case studies to provide practical examples of how utilities apply such integrated planning processes: two pole hardening programs and one microgrid planning effort. The report concludes by identifying opportunities for future research.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Extreme Tele-Echocardiography: Methodology for Remote Guidance of In-flight Echocardiography Aboard the International Space Station

Echocardiography is ideally suited for cardiovascular imaging in remote environments, but the expertise to perform it is often lacking. In 2001, an ATL HDI5000 was delivered to the International Space Station (ISS). The instrument is currently being used in a study to investigate the impact of long-term microgravity on cardiovascular function. The purpose of this report is to describe the methodology for remote guidance of echocardiography in space. Methods: In the year before launch of an ISS mission, potential astronaut echocardiographic operators participate in 5 sessions to train for echo acquisitions that occur roughly monthly during the mission, including one exercise echocardiogram. The focus of training is familiarity with the study protocol and remote guidance procedures. On-orbit, real-time guidance of in-flight acquisitions is provided by a sonographer in the Telescience Center of Mission Control. Physician investigators with remote access are able to relay comments on image optimization to the sonographer. Live video feed is relayed from the ISS to the ground via the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System with a 2 second transmission delay. The expert sonographer uses these images along with two-way audio to provide instructions and feedback. Images are stored in non-compressed DICOM format for asynchronous relay to the ground for subsequent off-line analysis. Results: Since June, 2009, a total of 19 resting echocardiograms and 4 exercise studies have been performed in-flight. Average acquisition time has been 45 minutes, reflecting 26,000 km of ISS travel per study. Image quality has been adequate in all studies, but remote guidance has proven imperative for fine-tuning imaging and prioritizing views when communication outages limit the study duration. Typical resting studies have included 12 video loops and 21 still-frame images requiring 750 MB of storage. Conclusions: Despite limited crew training, remote guidance allows research-quality echocardiography to be performed by non-experts aboard the ISS. Analysis is underway and additional subjects are being recruited to define the impact of microgravity on cardiac structure and systolic and diastolic function.

Martin, David↗

Long-Term Impacts of Constrained Transmission Deployment on the Cost-Reliability Tradeoff

Traditional Resource Adequacy (RA) frameworks in the U.S. undervalue the contributions of inter-regional transmission to resource adequacy during stress periods, focusing on the availability of nameplate capacity instead. However, availability of nameplate capacity does not always translate into electricity delivery, especially during tail events. Moreover, the rapid deployment of energy-limited resources and increasing electricity demand challenge existing resource adequacy frameworks and couple regional electricity demand and availability of supply via transmission. We propose a two-stage framework that goes beyond the existing capacity-centered approaches to reveal the RA contributions of transmission. In the first stage we introduce a multi-objective optimization framework to quantify the merits of transmission expansion via Pareto Frontiers under alternative futures of no transmission investment, primary energy resources availability and demand growth. The second stage focuses on tail events and leverages the results of the first stage to characterize the risk profile of regional consumers across the U.S. under the alternative energy futures. We find that no new transmission can lead to a more expensive and less reliable national grid across scenarios, however, the impact on regional RA can vary. The probabilistic analysis reveals that transmission investments can alleviate the tail risk of consumers, however, the availability of fuel resources does not always alleviate regional tail risks. Our findings inform policymakers and utilities on the prioritization of transmission investments to mitigate the risk of widespread outages, also for tail events, and ensure reliable and affordable electricity delivery to all.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Synchronization in electric power networks with inherent heterogeneity up to 100% inverter-based renewable generation

The synchronized operation of power generators is the foundation of electric power network stability and a key to the prevention of undesired power outages and blackouts. Here, we derive the conditions that guarantee synchronization in power networks with inherent generator heterogeneity when subjected to small perturbations, and perform a parametric sensitivity analysis to understand synchronization with varied types of generators. As inverter-based resources, which are the primary interfacing technology for many renewable sources of energy, have supplanted synchronous generators in ever growing numbers, the center of attention on associated integration challenges have resided primarily on the role of declining system inertia. Our results instead highlight the critical role of generator damping in achieving a stable state of synchronization. Additionally, we report the feasibility of operating interconnected electric grids with up to 100% power contribution from inverter-based renewable generation technologies. Our study has important implications as it sets the basis for the development of advanced control architectures and grid optimization methods that ensure synchronization and further pave the path towards the decarbonization of the electric power sector.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Will Solar Panels Help When the Power Goes Out? Planning for PV Resilience

PV systems, like all energy systems, must chart a difficult course in order to improve resilience. They need to simultaneously withstand extreme conditions that cause grid power disruptions, be configured in a way that allows electricity to be delivered to meet the PV user's needs, and overcome disruptions arising from solar resource intermittency. Certain considerations reveal themselves as key to a PV system's resilience benefits. Choice of hardware is critical, as is site selection for the PV array. Voluminous evidence in a hurricane context demonstrates that durable hardware, properly maintained and sited, leads to PV systems surviving extreme weather with their functionality intact. Structurally weak or poorly maintained PV equipment, on the other hand, has demonstrated failures during extreme weather events. PV system stakeholders should ensure that best practices are followed for hardware procurement and siting. It is also important to understand that PV systems are not one-size-fits-all. While incorporating islanding capabilities and energy storage into the system's electrical topology will typically enhance resilience, the user's needs will determine the optimally resilient conformation of any given system. These factors - appropriate hardware, siting, maintenance, and system design - are the primary drivers of PV resilience. PV systems possess high potential for resilient energy generation due to their distributed, abundant, and free fuel supply, but the technology itself does not inherently lead to resilient outcomes. Realizing PV's potential for resilience requires consideration of these determinative factors.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DER Planning with Resilience Analysis Using REopt Lite: A Behind-the-Meter Techno-Economic Analysis Tool

REopt Lite is a techno-economic decision support model for behind-the-meter energy systems design and dispatch modeling. REopt Lite is used to optimize energy systems for buildings, campuses, communities, and microgrids. It is based on a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) optimization model. It is a fully automated and streamlined energy modeling tool that can be used off-the-shelf for a wide variety of distributed generation integration analyses and at the same time is architected to be extensible for user-specific customizations for advanced users and subject matter experts. It is publicly available as a webtool as well as has an Application Programming Interface (API). The API functionality enables programmatic access to the model facilitating smooth integration with other distribution systems modeling tools, and automated multiple scenarios/sensitivity studies.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Valuing Resilience for Microgrids: Challenges, Innovative Approaches, and State Needs

The United States depends on the delivery of reliable, affordable, clean, and safe electricity. Electric utilities invest billions of dollars each year in generation, transmission, and distribution assets to meet this need. However, experiences with recent natural disasters of increasing frequency and duration demonstrate the shortcomings of this approach in the face of modern threats. Further, as customers rely on electricity for a broader range of important needs, such as transportation, as well as critical life-saving services and mission critical facilities such as water treatment, medical care, shelters, telecommunications, and more, the need to minimize the likelihood and impacts of outages grows. Against this backdrop, resilience has emerged as a key consideration to guide electricity spending, whether from utilities, customers, or taxpayers. Although reliability has been defined and measured for decades with broadly accepted metrics that measure how many customers lose power and at what frequency and duration, resilience considers the electricity system’s response to a disruption and its subsequent impacts on customers. Developing tools and methods to accurately assess the costs and benefits of resilience investments is a critical step toward the goal of mitigating the impacts of outages on customers and society. Today, electric system resilience is largely treated as an externality due to challenges estimating the costs of long-duration outages, impacts of outages on society, and increasing reliance on electricity for a growing set of interdependent services. These interdependencies include the water, wastewater, telecommunications, natural gas, and health sectors. Without knowing how much a given resilience investment will benefit customers or society more broadly, investors, policymakers, and regulators are less likely to make or approve such investments, and less able to prioritize those investments. State Energy Offices and public utility commissions (PUCs) lead the development of state-level energy policy and utility regulation, respectively, and each has interests in encouraging appropriate public and private investments in resilience. To this end, the National Association of State Energy Officials (NASEO) and National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC), with the support of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Electricity (OE), formed a joint Microgrids State Working Group to explore the costs and benefits of microgrids, barriers to broader deployment of microgrids to meet resilience and other objectives, and policy and regulatory strategies to optimize investments in resilience, including but not limited to microgrids. Although no universally accepted valuation tool for resilience exists, National Laboratories, utilities, researchers, and state and federal agencies have collaborated to develop, apply, and improve a number of approaches to quantify resilience, several of which are still in progress at the time this report is published. This report seeks to share these important advances by discussing current definitions of resilience (Section 1), how microgrids are defined and used to meet resilience objectives (Section 2), new approaches to valuing resilience (Section 3), steps State Energy Offices and PUCs have taken to further resilience valuation efforts (Section 4), and finally, considerations and suggested next steps for State Energy Offices and PUCs (Section 5). Relevant examples of specific microgrid projects and resilience valuation efforts are included throughout the report. While this report is written specifically for NASEO and NARUC members, it may be useful for utilities, local governments, and individual customers interested in improving the way public and private dollars are spent to achieve resilience outcomes.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Natural Gas Community of the Future (Final Report)

Nicor Gas, a subsidiary of Southern Company Gas and its parent company Southern Company, is developing the concept of the Carbon-neutral, Affordable, Resilient, and Equitable Community ("CARE Community") to address the challenges of accessibility and affordability of grid-interactive efficient buildings in historically disadvantaged communities. The CARE Community is a new construction net-zero energy and carbon neutral residential neighborhood consisting of 50 homes with electricity and natural gas services in South Suburban Chicago, built as low-income affordable housing. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is assisting Southern Company to explore how energy efficiency, renewable technologies, and the reliability and resilience of natural gas can be combined and optimized in an islandable energy system as part of a broader effort to understand the role natural gas plays in future communities integrated with renewable energy and improved energy efficiency. The CARE Community will demonstrate how energy efficiency, distributed energy resources (DERs), and advanced controls can be combined with existing natural gas infrastructure to serve historically disadvantaged communities in a cold climate with low energy cost for affordable housing programs and enhanced resilience to withstand extreme weather. Homes will be a part of an islandable energy system, integrating multiple DER technologies such as solar panels, natural gas fuel cells, reciprocating natural gas engines, and battery storage. The CARE Community will provide a replicable template that affordable housing developers and energy companies can adopt throughout the United States. In this report, we present the design and modeling of the community and potential approaches for integrating DERs. We analyze and discuss annual simulations under normal operating conditions and week-long simulations under electric power grid outage conditions.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Gateway Autonomy for Enabling Deep Space Exploration

The Gateway spacecraft is an important stepping-stone to exploration of the solar system, integrating commercial and international partners into a tightly coupled system, enabling cislunar activities, and implementing key technologies for missions to Mars. Autonomy is a capability area necessary to handle long communication outages where intervention from Earth is impossible, to prepare to operate with long communication delays that will be common in interplanetary travel, and to make spaceflight more affordable and accessible by reducing sustaining operations costs. The Gateway Concept of Operations states that one of Gateway’s goals is to “focus on infrastructure and systems that will allow autonomous operations aboard the Gateway with robotics, automated systems, advanced communications, and distributed computing.” Gateway’s Vehicle Systems Manager (VSM) and associated Autonomous Spacecraft Management Architecture (ASMA) are key products towards delivering autonomous capability. The primary functions of the control architecture are Mission Management and Timeline Execution, Resource Management, Fault Management, and Vehicle Control and Operation (VCO). In each of these areas, there is an initial level of capability to be delivered at launch, with plans to continue development and grow to greater capability. The initial deployment of VSM will focus on maintaining vehicle safety by focusing on full fault management capabilities and deploying only enough resource and timeline planning functionality to support that. The final deployment of VSM will add significant planning and control optimization functionality to support nominal operations for up to 21 days without ground support, even accommodating fault and failure conditions. While the VSM is the vehicle-level representation of autonomous reasoning, distributed automation is essential to provide the right scope and abstraction of information to process. Module and system support of automation and simplicity of interfaces are two important design paradigms that Gateway is focusing on to garner a systems approach to autonomy. Distribution of reasoning can increase complexity, so Gateway is also taking a strict hierarchical approach to information flow and decision making. VSM is not the only capability necessary to achieve an autonomous spacecraft. Robotics support for maintenance of the spacecraft will be essential to provide continued vehicle functionality even when crew is not present. Technical and programmatic challenges exist when implementing autonomous robotics operations. These challenges include sufficient network flexibility to support data transfer to the rest of the vehicle to coordinate module-to-module robotic walk-offs and finding the proper interfaces to allow sufficient dexterity. Communication system upgrades planned for Gateway include Delay Tolerant Networking to best utilize the complex network of relays that will be part of mature cislunar operations. Distributed computing and management will provide failure tolerance, robustness, and growth of capabilities while still allowing significant reuse of heritage software on heritage systems as well as reuse of common applications across a spacecraft to minimize new development, but this requires adherence to key standards and interfaces. The Gateway program has demonstrated significant progress towards these capabilities and has identified challenges other spacecraft developers should be aware of from the start.

Molly Anderson↗

Gateway Autonomy for Enabling Deep Space Exploration

The Gateway spacecraft is an important stepping-stone to exploration of the solar system, integrating commercial and international partners into a tightly coupled system, enabling cislunar activities, and implementing key technologies for missions to Mars. Autonomy is a capability area necessary to handle long communication outages where intervention from Earth is impossible, to prepare to operate with long communication delays that will be common in interplanetary travel, and to make spaceflight more affordable and accessible by reducing sustaining operations costs. The Gateway Concept of Operations states that one of Gateway’s goals is to “focus on infrastructure and systems that will allow autonomous operations aboard the Gateway with robotics, automated systems, advanced communications, and distributed computing.” Gateway’s Vehicle Systems Manager (VSM) and associated Autonomous Spacecraft Management Architecture (ASMA) are key products towards delivering autonomous capability. The primary functions of the control architecture are Mission Management and Timeline Execution, Resource Management, Fault Management, and Vehicle Control and Operation (VCO). In each of these areas, there is an initial level of capability to be delivered at launch, with plans to continue development and grow to greater capability. The initial deployment of VSM will focus on maintaining vehicle safety by focusing on full fault management capabilities and deploying only enough resource and timeline planning functionality to support that. The final deployment of VSM will add significant planning and control optimization functionality to support nominal operations for up to 21 days without ground support, even accommodating fault and failure conditions. While the VSM is the vehicle-level representation of autonomous reasoning, distributed automation is essential to provide the right scope and abstraction of information to process. Module and system support of automation and simplicity of interfaces are two important design paradigms that Gateway is focusing on to garner a systems approach to autonomy. Distribution of reasoning can increase complexity, so Gateway is also taking a strict hierarchical approach to information flow and decision making. VSM is not the only capability necessary to achieve an autonomous spacecraft. Robotics support for maintenance of the spacecraft will be essential to provide continued vehicle functionality even when crew is not present. Technical and programmatic challenges exist when implementing autonomous robotics operations. These challenges include sufficient network flexibility to support data transfer to the rest of the vehicle to coordinate module-to-module robotic walk-offs and finding the proper interfaces to allow sufficient dexterity. Communication system upgrades planned for Gateway include Delay Tolerant Networking to best utilize the complex network of relays that will be part of mature cislunar operations. Distributed computing and management will provide failure tolerance, robustness, and growth of capabilities while still allowing significant reuse of heritage software on heritage systems as well as reuse of common applications across a spacecraft to minimize new development, but this requires adherence to key standards and interfaces. The Gateway program has demonstrated significant progress towards these capabilities and has identified challenges other spacecraft developers should be aware of from the start.

Molly Anderson↗

A method for assessing economic, environmental, and reliability tradeoffs of interregional transmission connecting ERCOT (the Texas grid) to the eastern and western grids

Reliable development of the power grid is an evolving concern for humanity due to extreme weather that frequently threatens power sector infrastructure. The state of Texas is a uniquely structured testbed for grid planners to study when looking for solutions to development, innovation, and overcoming such challenges. Because of its size and islanded structure, Texas is small enough to model, but big enough to matter. Texas is a global leader in energy production, energy consumption, and maintains an unusually diverse fuel mix. In addition, the state has experienced winter freezes, heat waves, wind storms, droughts and floods that have threatened power sector infrastructure or caused recent blackouts and calls for demand side conservation. One of the most devastating of these events was the North American winter storm, dubbed “Winter Storm Uri” by the Weather Channel, that froze the region in February 2021 and led to an extended power outage event that put the majority of Texan residents in darkness for days. While preparing to avoid such outage events in the future, various tools have been proposed to improve grid reliability, including energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed energy resources. An additional option would be to develop interregional transmission that connects the Texas grid to other national grids. To assess the merits of this idea, we developed a novel, universally-applicable and internationally-relevant framework to study how the Texas grid would evolve alongside access to various interregional ties. This method allows us to stress the synthetic grid structure and analyze how it would respond to the shock of a simulated winter storm event. Our method leverages open-source modeling tools, such as PowerGenome, pyGRETA, and GenX to synthesize unique zonal grid data, construct a consolidated network of model regions, and simulate different developmental pathways of capacity expansion and operational dispatch. We demonstrate our method with an analysis connecting the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the grid that serves most of Texas, the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), the grid that serves the western half of the contiguous U.S., and the Eastern Interconnect, the grid that serves the eastern half of the contiguous U.S. Our results indicate that the cost-optimal capacity of interregional transmission connecting the ERCOT grid to other grids lies between 9–13 GW assuming baseline conditions. Building this amount of connecting capacity in one or multiple directions lowers the costs and emissions of development and operation by up to $16 billion and 257 million metric tonnes (MMT) respectively. Additionally, our results show that the interregional connections between ERCOT and other national grids reduce the amount of total load shed required through mild winter storm events. However, our results also show that there is a threshold of very extreme winter storm conditions, spanning multiple service areas, above which the connections exacerbate resource adequacy problems. Therefore, the results indicate that the connections need to be carefully planned alongside the rest of the grid infrastructure to avoid over-reliance on specific resources or technology options.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Exploring acute weather resilience: Meeting resilience and renewable goals

We report the United States is affected by an average of almost seven severe weather events a year, often resulting in billions of dollars in physical and economic damages, a subset of which are related to grid outages. There is a need for power and energy system stakeholders to better understand and implement the strategies that help reduce net-economic and societal consequences associated with grid outages by improving the resilience of their systems. In addition, there are incentives to reduce emissions and meet climate goals, several pathways of which include resilient technologies. Including resilience constraints and metrics in energy system planning models may help inform the design of more resilient systems that are also more renewable and sustainable. This paper reviews qualitative definitions of resilience, quantitative approaches to resilience, recent examples of the inclusion of resilience in energy system models with respect to acute climatological threats, and the gaps in fully articulating resilience in current modeling tools. We then outline steps to effectively improve resilience considerations against such threats into energy sector modeling tools. Based on the findings, the authors propose a novel framework for energy system resilience assessment and future areas of research to bridge the current modeling gaps.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Robust Dissimilar Metal Friction Welded Spool for Enhanced Capability for Steam Power Components (Final Program Report)

This project successfully demonstrated the feasibility and advantages of producing durable, friction-welded dissimilar-metal spools, both with and without transition pieces, as well as the use of advanced oxidation-protective coatings for steam power applications. The work encompassed the optimization and full-scale production of NFA tubing, overcoming manufacturing and processing challenges to achieve enhanced strength, creep, and fatigue properties validated by extensive microstructural characterization. Optimized welding techniques were developed and refined for joining dissimilar materials, resulting in defect-free welds optimized for both low- and high-pressure boiler circuits. Systematic evaluation of welding parameters, coupled with heat treatments, ensured reliable performance and minimized weld defects such as banding and cracking. Comprehensive mechanical and non-destructive testing, including tensile, bend, fatigue, and CT scanning, confirmed the superior integrity and durability of the friction-welded joints under representative service conditions. To address oxidation-related degradation, a range of protective alloy coatings—such as IN625, APMT, Duplex 2507, and FeCrAlY—were selected and evaluated for their ability to counteract oxide notch formation at dissimilar metal interfaces. These coatings demonstrated improved oxidation resistance and long-term stability under thermal cycling, thereby extending weld service life. Thermal cyclic testing and long-term studies captured the phase stability and diffusion behavior of coated and uncoated configurations. Validated models for low-cycle fatigue (LCF), creep, and thermal mechanical fatigue (TMF) were developed to predict component life and failure modes. These models confirmed that friction-welded configurations exhibited significantly enhanced performance compared to conventional gas-tungsten arc welding (GTAW), with up to 7× improvement in creep resistance and at least 2× enhancement in fatigue properties. The introduction of a tailored transition piece further reduced thermally induced strains, enhancing fatigue life. The results demonstrate a robust pathway for retrofitting existing steam fleet components and upgrading future equipment to deliver substantially improved cold-start cycling behavior and reduction of unplanned outages due to premature weld failures.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗