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Advances in Design Capabilities for Planetary Missions from the NASA Entry Systems Modeling and Instrumentation Portfolio

The Entry Systems Modeling project (ESM) is supported by both the NASA Space Technology and the Science Mission Directorates and focuses on developing simulation tools and validated models for characterizing the performance of entry systems tailored to planetary destinations across the Solar System. ESM is organized into six technical capability areas that together address all relevant factors related to spacecraft entry, as well as some aspects of descent: Thermal Protection System (TPS) Materials; Aerothermodynamics; Entry & Descent Vehicle Dynamics; Guidance, Navigation, and Control; Vehicle Systems Analysis; and Advanced Tools and Numerical Methods. Development within the capability areas is undertaken explicitly with a focus on transition and infusion to science missions, human exploration missions, and commercial space activities. The present talk details developments that specifically impact science missions, including simulation tool capabilities that aid in mission design and model development to understand entry system performance at a given destination. Examples of the successful infusion and transition of such project outcomes to science missions also are provided. Several simulation tool development efforts within ESM have resulted in new design capabilities for missions. One such outcome is improved toolsets for mission trajectory and concept of operations design. Specifically, an initiative to couple a leading tool for entry, ascent/descent, and orbital trajectory optimization (Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II or POST2) to those used within the Agency for interplanetary trajectory optimization (Copernicus and Monte) has made substantial progress, with the outcomes to date promising to allow efficient trajectory optimization across mission phases. Additionally, toolchains for the evaluation of vehicle performance during entry and descent have been developed that allow assessment of multi-dimensional aeroheating on detailed vehicle geometries, characterization of deployment and inflation of parachutes, and assessment of vehicle dynamic stability during descent. These capabilities are achieved by coupling diverse sets of physics together – material response, computational fluid dynamics, radiation, and vehicle dynamics – to suitably describe complex entry and descent phenomena. Several model development and validation efforts for specific destinations and entry regimes also are underway within the ESM project. For instance, new experimental capabilities to validate radiation models at low densities/high altitudes recently have been established with project support, specifically the Low-Density Shock Tube (LDST) at the NASA Ames Research Center Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) facility. The LDST is being leveraged to develop improved models of shock layer kinetics and radiation in Titan atmospheres, while future studies will be conducted in the LDST and the existing high velocity shock tube to provide validation data for radiation models of Venus, Ice Giants, and Mars atmospheres. Models describing the aerothermal and thermo-structural performance of Thermal Protection System (TPS) materials has been another focus, with multiscale modeling activities on-going for the two leading TPS materials applicable to a range of entry conditions and science missions: the Phenolic-Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) and woven materials like 3D Mid-Density Carbon Phenolic (3MDCP). A continual effort is made to infuse and transition outcomes from ESM simulation tool and model development activities into relevant science missions. Significant progress has been made on this front, with missions such as Dragonfly, DAVINCI, and Mars Missions benefitting from project outcomes. The groundwork also is being laid to provide insights into forward looking missions to Gas/Ice Giants as well as for potential sample returns.

Justin Haskins↗

DOE OSTI2024

Customer enrollment and participation in building demand management programs: A review of key factors

Increasing the efficiency and flexibility of electricity demand is necessary for ensuring a cost-effective and reliable transition to zero-carbon electricity systems. Such demand-side management (DSM) resources have been procured by utilities for decades via energy efficiency and demand response programs; however, the key drivers of program enrollment and customer participation levels remain poorly understood — even as governments and grid planners seek to scale up the deployment of DSM assets to meet climate targets. Here we systematically review the evidence on multiple factors that may influence customer enrollment and participation in building DSM programs, focusing primarily on residential and commercial buildings. We examine the contexts in which relationships between DSM factors and outcomes are most often explored and with which methods; we also score the strength, direction, and internal consistency of each factor's reported impact on the enrollment and participation outcomes. We find that studies most commonly assess the effects of economic incentives for load flexibility on program participation levels, often using simulation-based methods in lieu of measured data. Few studies focus on program enrollment outcomes or regulatory drivers of either enrollment or participation, and gaps are also evident in the coverage of emerging DSM opportunities like load electrification. Removal of structural barriers (e.g., the lack of controls infrastructure) and the use of third party services (e.g., load aggregators) are the factors with the largest positive impacts on DSM outcomes, but no single factor emerges as clearly most impactful. For a given factor, the range of reported impacts typically varies widely across the relevant studies reviewed. Our findings provide a snapshot of the state of knowledge about building DSM and customer decision-making, and they expose key gaps in understanding that must be filled if building DSM is to expand as a critical resource for operating clean power grids.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

The interplay of DNA repair context with target sequence predictably biases Cas9-generated mutations

Abstract Repair of double-stranded breaks generated by CRISPR/Cas9 is highly dependent on the flanking DNA sequence. To learn about interactions between DNA repair and target sequence, we measure frequencies of over 236,000 distinct Cas9-generated mutational outcomes at over 2800 synthetic target sequences in 18 DNA repair deficient mouse embryonic stem cells lines. We classify the outcomes in an unbiased way, finding a specialised role forPrkdc(DNA-PKcs protein) andPolmin creating 1 bp insertions matching the nucleotide on the protospacer-adjacent motif side of the break, a variable involvement ofNbnandPolqin the creation of different deletion outcomes, and uni-directional deletions dependent on both end-protection and end-resection. Using our dataset, we build predictive models of the mutagenic outcomes of Cas9 scission that outperform the current standards. This work improves our understanding of DNA repair gene function, and provides avenues for more precise modulation of Cas9-generated mutations.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantum Information Encoding and Decoding for Quantum Sensi

This two-year theory project focused on theoretical investigations of novel paradigms for quantum sensing, building on information encoding and techniques from quantum error correction, quantum computing and other quantum information domains. The outcomes facilitate quantum information technology development, especially at the interface of quantum computing and quantum sensing. The results of the project show new use cases and new paradigms for quantum sensing beyond what has so far been considered. One outcome shows how quantum sensing opens new opportunities for fundamental physics such as the capability of single graviton detection. Another outcome reveals a new application of NISQ quantum computers with error correction for metrology, building on recent advances in practical quantum error correction implementation. The third outcome of the project creates new paradigms of back-action-evading sensing inspired by collective quantum information encoding, which achieves quantum sensing beyond the quantum limit without the use of entanglement.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantitative Risk Assessment for Fuel Cell Electric Bus Hydrogen Storage and Refueling Facility

It is necessary to understand the safety implications and risk mitigation options for fuel cell electric bus fleet deployment, especially for related facilities responsible for operations such as production, storage, compression, and dispensing of hydrogen for use by the buses. In this report, we present a quantitative risk assessment for a potential fuel cell electric bus fleet that was motivated by efforts to improve resilience at the Portland International Airport but can be applicable to a range of hydrogen case studies and use cases. We estimated risk for a facility that produces, stores, compresses, and dispenses hydrogen for the fleet of buses, with a focus on individual risk to people in terms of annual frequency of fatality. We considered the frequency of hydrogen leaks that could result in harmful physical outcomes like jet fires or explosions, and the consequences of those outcomes for people. We created customized fault trees to calculate the frequencies of different sizes of leaks and event sequence diagrams to calculate ignition probabilities for the various leak sizes. We also leveraged the HyRAM+ toolkit to use these inputs to calculate overall risk for the facility, which we separated into one section responsible for producing, storing, and compressing hydrogen, and one section responsible for dispensing the hydrogen to the buses. We found that the dispensing area seemed to have a higher risk than the production/storage/compression area of the facility, largely because of the inclusion of a component with a high leak frequency (the heat exchanger used to cool the hydrogen before entering the vehicle, to prevent overheating and expansion of hydrogen in the onboard tank). For the example production and refueling facility we evaluated and the data we used for the analysis, the leak frequency had a larger impact on the risk differences between the two sections on the facility, compared to the physical outcome consequence, which was slightly different due to the varying fuel conditions, but not substantially different. Actions can be taken to prevent these hazards (e.g., lowering leak frequencies in system components) or to mitigate the consequences if they do occur (e.g., installing barriers to protect people if ignition events occur). The choice of which actions to take depends not only on safety considerations but also on space, time, staffing, feasibility, and financial constraints. Therefore, the quantitative risk assessment approach can help understand relative risk contributions from different components, leak sizes, consequences, and human actions, to prioritize risk reduction strategies and balance these parameters. The outcomes of this report may be useful for a variety of stakeholders working in the hydrogen, transportation, vehicle, and aviation sector, including those responsible for aspects like facility design, operations, and regulations. There is not a single value of risk that determines whether a hypothetical system is “safe” or not. The insights about risk mitigations may be leveraged, and the quantitative risk assessment approach can be applied to other case studies to understand risk priorities and contributions specific to different FCEB and hydrogen facility uses.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

The relationship between below average cognitive ability at age 5 years and the child’s experience of school at age 9

Background At age 5, while only embarking on their educational journey, substantial differences in children’s cognitive ability will already exist. The aim of this study was to examine the causal association between below average cognitive ability at age 5 years and child-reported experience of school and self-concept, and teacher-reported class engagement and emotional-behavioural function at age 9 years. Methods This longitudinal cohort study used data from 7,392 children in the Growing Up in Ireland Infant Cohort, who had completed the Picture Similarities and Naming Vocabulary subtests of the British Abilities Scales at age 5. Principal components analysis was used to produce a composite general cognitive ability score for each child. Children with a general cognitive ability score more than 1 standard deviation (SD) below the mean at age 5 were categorised as ‘Below Average Cognitive Ability’ (BACA), and those scoring above this as ‘Typical Cognitive Development’ (TCD). The outcomes of interest, measured at age 9, were child-reported experience of school, child’s self-concept, teacher-reported class engagement, and teacher-reported emotional behavioural function. Binary and multinomial logistic regression models were used to examine the association between BACA and these outcomes. Results Compared to those with TCD, those with BACA had significantly higher odds of never liking school [Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 1.82, 95% CI 1.37–2.43, p < 0.001], of being picked on (AOR 1.27, 95% CI 1.09–1.48) and of picking on others (AOR 1.53, 95% CI 1.27–1.84). They had significantly higher odds of experiencing low self-concept (AOR 1.20, 95% CI 1.02–1.42) and emotional-behavioural difficulties (AOR 1.34, 95% CI 1.10–1.63, p = 0.003). Compared to those with TCD, children with BACA had significantly higher odds of hardly ever or never being interested, motivated and excited to learn (AOR 2.29, 95% CI 1.70–3.10). Conclusion Children with BACA at school-entry had significantly higher odds of reporting a negative school experience and low self-concept at age 9. They had significantly higher odds of having teacher-reported poor class engagement and problematic emotional-behavioural function at age 9. The findings of this study suggest BACA has a causal role in these adverse outcomes. Early childhood policy and intervention design should be cognisant of the important role of cognitive ability in school and childhood outcomes.

Bowe, Andrea K.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Unequal Bargaining? Australia's Aviation Trade Relations with the United States

International aviation trade bargaining is distinguished by its use of a formal process of bilateral bargaining based on the reciprocal exchange of rights by states. Australia-United States aviation trade relations are currently without rancour, but this has not always been the case and in the late 1980s and early 1990s, their formal bilateral aviation negotiations were a forum for a bitter conflict between two competing international aviation policies. In seeking to explain the bilateral aviation outcomes between Australia and the United States and how Australia has sought to improve upon these, analytical frameworks derived from international political economy were considered, along with the bilateral bargaining process itself. The paper adopts a modified neorealist model and concludes that to understand how Australia has sought to improve upon these aviation outcomes, neorealist assumptions that relative power capabilities determine outcomes must be qualified by reference to the formal bilateral bargaining process. In particular, Australia's use of this process and its application of certain bargaining tactics within that process remain critical to understanding bilateral outcomes.

Solomon, Russell↗

NASA NTRS1994

Goal Directed Model Inversion: Learning Within Domain Constraints

Goal Directed Model Inversion (GDMI) is an algorithm designed to generalize supervised learning to the case where target outputs are not available to the learning system. The output of the learning system becomes the input to some external device or transformation, and only the output of this device or transformation can be compared to a desired target. The fundamental driving mechanism of GDMI is to learn from success. Given that a wrong outcome is achieved, one notes that the action that produced that outcome "would have been right if the outcome had been the desired one." The algorithm makes use of these intermediate "successes" to achieve the final goal. A unique and potentially very important feature of this algorithm is the ability to modify the output of the learning module to force upon it a desired syntactic structure. This differs from ordinary supervised learning in the following way: in supervised learning the exact desired output pattern must be provided. In GDMI instead, it is possible to require simply that the output obey certain rules, i.e., that it "make sense" in some way determined by the knowledge domain. The exact pattern that will achieve the desired outcome is then found by the system. The ability to impose rules while allowing the system to search for its own answers in the context of neural networks is potentially a major breakthrough in two ways: 1) it may allow the construction of networks that can incorporate immediately some important knowledge, i.e. would not need to learn everything from scratch as normally required at present, and 2) learning and searching would be limited to the areas where it is necessary, thus facilitating and speeding up the process. These points are illustrated with examples from robotic path planning and parametric design.

Colombano, Silvano P.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Goal Directed Model Inversion: Learning Within Domain Constraints

Goal Directed Model Inversion (GDMI) is an algorithm designed to generalize supervised learning to the case where target outputs are not available to the learning system. The output of the learning system becomes the input to some external device or transformation, and only the output of this device or transformation can be compared to a desired target. The fundamental driving mechanism of GDMI is to learn from success. Given that a wrong outcome is achieved, one notes that the action that produced that outcome "would have been right if the outcome had been the desired one." The algorithm makes use of these intermediate "successes" to achieve the final goal. A unique and potentially very important feature of this algorithm is the ability to modify the output of the learning module to force upon it a desired syntactic structure. This differs from ordinary supervised learning in the following way: in supervised learning the exact desired output pattern must be provided. In GDMI instead, it is possible to require simply that the output obey certain rules, i.e., that it "make sense" in some way determined by the knowledge domain. The exact pattern that will achieve the desired outcome is then found by the system. The ability to impose rules while allowing the system to search for its own answers in the context of neural networks is potentially a major breakthrough in two ways: (1) it may allow the construction of networks that can incorporate immediately some important knowledge, i.e., would not need to learn everything from scratch as normally required at present; and (2) learning and searching would be limited to the areas where it is necessary, thus facilitating and speeding up the process. These points are illustrated with examples from robotic path planning and parametric design.

Colombano, Silvano P.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Relationship of the time course of venous gas bubbles to altitude decompression illness

The correlation is low between the occurrence of gas bubbles in the pulmonary artery, called venous gas emboli (VGE), and subsequent decompression illness (DCI). The correlation improves when a "grade" of VGE is considered; a zero to four categorical classification based on the intensity and duration of the VGE signal from a Doppler bubble detector. Additional insight about DCI might come from an analysis of the time course of the occurrence of VGE. Using the NASA Hypobaric Decompression Sickness Databank, we compared the time course of the VGE outcome between 322 subjects who exercised and 133 Doppler technicians who did not exercise to evaluate the role of physical activity on the VGE outcome and incidence of DCI. We also compared 61 subjects with VGE and DCI with 110 subjects with VGE but without DCI to identify unique characteristics about the time course of the VGE outcome to try to discriminate between DCI and no-DCI cases. The VGE outcome as a function of time showed a characteristic short lag, rapid response, and gradual recovery phase that was related to physical activity at altitude and the presence or absence of DCI. The average time for DCI symptoms in a limb occurred just before the time of the highest fraction of VGE in the pulmonary artery. It is likely, but not certain, that an individual will report a DCI symptom if VGE are detected early in the altitude exposure, the intensity or grade of VGE rapidly increases from a limb region, and the intensity or grade of VGE remains high.

NASA Discipline Environmental Health↗

NASA NTRS2013

Comparison of Remote Sensing and Fixed-Site Monitoring Approaches for Examining Air Pollution and Health in a National Study Population

Satellite remote sensing (RS) has emerged as a cutting edge approach for estimating ground level ambient air pollution. Previous studies have reported a high correlation between ground level PM2.5 and NO2 estimated by RS and measurements collected at regulatory monitoring sites. The current study examined associations between air pollution and adverse respiratory and allergic health outcomes using multi-year averages of NO2 and PM2.5 from RS and from regulatory monitoring. RS estimates were derived using satellite measurements from OMI, MODIS, and MISR instruments. Regulatory monitoring data were obtained from Canada's National Air Pollution Surveillance Network. Self-reported prevalence of doctor-diagnosed asthma, current asthma, allergies, and chronic bronchitis were obtained from the Canadian Community Health Survey (a national sample of individuals 12 years of age and older). Multi-year ambient pollutant averages were assigned to each study participant based on their six digit postal code at the time of health survey, and were used as a marker for long-term exposure to air pollution. RS derived estimates of NO2 and PM2.5 were associated with 6e10% increases in respiratory and allergic health outcomes per interquartile range (3.97 mg m3 for PM2.5 and 1.03 ppb for NO2) among adults (aged 20e64) in the national study population. Risk estimates for air pollution and respiratory/ allergic health outcomes based on RS were similar to risk estimates based on regulatory monitoring for areas where regulatory monitoring data were available (within 40 km of a regulatory monitoring station). RS derived estimates of air pollution were also associated with adverse health outcomes among participants residing outside the catchment area of the regulatory monitoring network (p < 0.05).

validation↗

NASA NTRS2015

Integrated Medical Model (IMM) 4.0 Enhanced Functionalities

The Integrated Medical Model is a probabilistic simulation model that uses input data on 100 medical conditions to simulate expected medical events, the resources required to treat, and the resulting impact to the mission for specific crew and mission characteristics. The newest development version of IMM, IMM v4.0, adds capabilities that remove some of the conservative assumptions that underlie the current operational version, IMM v3. While IMM v3 provides the framework to simulate whether a medical event occurred, IMMv4 also simulates when the event occurred during a mission timeline. This allows for more accurate estimation of mission time lost and resource utilization. In addition to the mission timeline, IMMv4.0 features two enhancements that address IMM v3 assumptions regarding medical event treatment. Medical events in IMMv3 are assigned the untreated outcome if any resource required to treat the event was unavailable. IMMv4 allows for partially treated outcomes that are proportional to the amount of required resources available, thus removing the dichotomous treatment assumption. An additional capability IMMv4 is to use an alternative medical resource when the primary resource assigned to the condition is depleted, more accurately reflecting the real-world system. The additional capabilities defining IMM v4.0the mission timeline, partial treatment, and alternate drug result in more realistic predicted mission outcomes. The primary model outcomes of IMM v4.0 for the ISS6 mission, including mission time lost, probability of evacuation, and probability of loss of crew life, are be compared to those produced by the current operational version of IMM to showcase enhanced prediction capabilities.

Spae Adaptation Syndrome↗

NASA NTRS2016

Architecture for Integrated Medical Model Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a modeling tool used to predict potential outcomes of a complex system based on a statistical understanding of many initiating events. Utilizing a Monte Carlo method, thousands of instances of the model are considered and outcomes are collected. PRA is considered static, utilizing probabilities alone to calculate outcomes. Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (dPRA) is an advanced concept where modeling predicts the outcomes of a complex system based not only on the probabilities of many initiating events, but also on a progression of dependencies brought about by progressing down a time line. Events are placed in a single time line, adding each event to a queue, as managed by a planner. Progression down the time line is guided by rules, as managed by a scheduler. The recently developed Integrated Medical Model (IMM) summarizes astronaut health as governed by the probabilities of medical events and mitigation strategies. Managing the software architecture process provides a systematic means of creating, documenting, and communicating a software design early in the development process. The software architecture process begins with establishing requirements and the design is then derived from the requirements.

Probability Theory↗

NASA NTRS2019

Prenatal 2g Exposure Alters Placental Expression of Stress-Related Genes

Extra-terrestrial colonization is of growing interest to space agencies and private entities, emphasizing the importance of research on reproduction and development in the absence of Earth's 1G. Maternal stressors can modify offspring development, exerting significant lifespan and crossgenerational changes through prenatal programming. The space environment is stressful, therefore exposure to altered gravity during pregnancy may impact later life outcomes in offspring. In ground-based studies, we exposed pregnant rats to continuous +G (above Earth gravity), and observed overweight and elevated anxiety in adult male (but not female) offspring, common phenotypes associated with prenatal maternal stress. Here we hypothesize that exposure to increased gravity during pregnancy elicits changes in the expression of stress-related genes in placenta that may mediate emergence of later life outcomes. While the placenta transports maternal factors to the fetus and produces endogenous fetal hormones, stress-induced changes at the placental-uterine interface may also alter communication between mother and fetus, facilitating prenatal transmission of unfavorable later life outcomes and cross-generational epigenetic alterations. Maternal stress elevates maternal glucocorticoids however placental 11b-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase type 2 (HSD11B2) buffers fetal exposure by converting cortisol/corticosterone into inactive metabolites. Maternal stress during pregnancy down-regulates this enzyme and can induce epigenetic changes in placental and fetal tissues accounting for heightened adult HPA reactivity. Past studies have shown a placenta-specific increase in DNA methyltransferase (DNMT3a) mRNA in stressed mothers, an effect with implications for genome-wide epigenetic changes that may account for diverse phenotypic outcomes following maternal stress. Here we exposed groups of pregnant rats to one of five gravity loads (1, 1.5, 1.75 and 2G) and analyzed placental samples during late gestation. We predicted a systematic dose-response relationship between gravity load and the expression of the HSD11B2 and DNMT3 genes, thereby linking maternal exposure to altered gravity during pregancy with maternal stress.

Kalotia, Simranjit K.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Examining Circadian Disadvantages in the National Basketball Association's (NBA) Playoffs

Introduction: Prior research on travel in the National Basketball Association’s (NBA) regular season has shown that teams journeying west relative to their home base face circadian disadvantages for evening games, while those traveling east have advantages. The current study extends previous research by examining these effects within the NBA playoffs. We hypothesized that teams would have a greater circadian advantage during eastward compared to westward travel. Methods: In 2013, the NBA implemented a 7-game series playoff structure, in which teams play an alternating home/away 2-2-1-1-1 format for the Finals. Data for all 499 postseason games played during the 2013-14 to 2018-2019 seasons were collected from Basketball-Reference and FiveThirtyEight. We investigated the impact of direction of travel based on home base city (same time zone, westward, eastward) and time zones traveled on actual game outcomes, Elo rating differences (i.e., a team quality metric based on wins and losses), Elo predicted win probability, and team scoring for visiting teams. Results: Teams had lower Elo predicted win probabilities following 3-hour westward than same time zone and all eastward travel, while 3-hour eastward travel related to higher probabilities of winning compared to same time zone and all westward travel (p < .02, d > .95). Teams travelling westward with 2-hour time changes lost significantly more games than those experiencing 1-hour westward (p = .04, OR = 2.45), 1-hour eastward (p = .05, OR = 2.34), and 3-hour eastward changes (p = .02, OR = 4.68). Scoring was significantly higher following eastward travel compared to both westward (p = .001, d = 0.60) and same time zone travel (p = .003, d = 0.44). There were no statistically clear differences in team quality based on overall direction of travel or number of time zones traveled, and game outcomes based on direction of travel (p > .05). Conclusion: Overall direction of travel was related to team scoring, while number of time zones traveled was associated with Elo predicted win probability and game outcomes. Generally, teams travelling eastward and within the same time zone gained an advantage over those travelling westward. Adjustment to travel and time zone changes appear to influence certain aspects of in-game performances and outcomes in the NBA playoffs.

circadian misalignment↗

NASA NTRS2021

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 °C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 °C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 °C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 °C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.d-2090s.

Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMI↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modified Cascading Generalized Inverse Control Allocation

The current aviation revolution towards electric propulsion aircraft (e.g., electric vertical takeoff-and-landing) brings unique control challenges. These vehicles are typically over-actuated (more effectors than desired control outcomes), may require control strategies for the three phases of flight (hover, transition and cruise), and currently have limited electric power availability. These vehicle challenges bring the need for optimal control allocation to the forefront of research. A leading control allocation algorithm, used in current flight vehicles, is the Cascading Generalized Inverse (CGI). Unfortunately, the Cascading Generalized Inverse algorithm is unable to achieve some desired outcomes, it intermittently provides non-optimal allocations, and it may fail to preserve moment direction near maximal achievable outcomes. In this research, the shortcomings of the Cascading Generalized Inverse algorithm are addressed by augmenting the algorithm with Scalar Difference Quadratic unsaturation identification and location at each iteration. Rigorous theory is shown that the Modified Cascading Generalized Inverse performs better at obtaining optimal allocations for all attainable outcomes. Numerical case studies for over-actuated vehicles demonstrate resolution to the aforementioned deficiencies.

Control Allocation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modified Cascading Generalized Inverse Control Allocation

Control Allocation↗