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Precursor science for the Terrestrial Planet Finder

This document outlines a path for the development of the field of extrasolar planet research, with a particular emphasis on the goals of the Terrestrial Planet Finder (TPF). Over the past decade, a new field of research has developed, the study of extrasolar planetary systems, driven by the discovery of massive planets around nearby stars. The planet count now stands at over 130. Are there Earth-like planets around nearby stars? Might any of those planets be conducive to the formation and maintenance of life? These are the questions that TPF seeks to answer.

Beichman, C. A.↗

Low Cost Atmospheric Probe Missions to the Outer Planets

From Introduction: Missions such as the atmospheric probe missions to the outer planets participate in the quest to explain the formation and evolution of the Solar System and the Earth within it. The probe missions described in this Abstract seek: understanding of the origin of the solar nebula and forces that formed Earth and the other planets; to determine the evolutionary processes that led to the diversity of Solar System bodies and the uniqueness of the Planet Earth; and to use the exotic worlds of our Solar System bodies and the uniqueness of the planet Earth; and to use the exotic worlds of our Solar System as natural science laboratories...The key to low cost atmospheric probe missions to the outer planets is low probe mass and the short time to the target planet.

cost↗

The CARMENES search for exoplanets around M dwarfs: Two planets on opposite sides of the radius gap transiting the nearby M dwarf LTT 3780

We present the discovery and characterisation of two transiting planets observed by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) orbiting the nearby (d⋆ ≈ 22 pc), bright (J ≈ 9 mag) M3.5 dwarf LTT 3780 (TOI–732). We confirm both planets and their association with LTT 3780 via ground-based photometry and determine their masses using precise radial velocities measured with the CARMENES spectrograph. Precise stellar parameters determined from CARMENES high-resolution spectra confirm that LTT 3780 is a mid-M dwarf with an effective temperature of T(eff) = 3360 ± 51 K, a surface gravity of log g⋆ = 4.81 ± 0.04 (cgs), and an iron abundance of [Fe/H] = 0.09 ± 0.16 dex, with an inferred mass of M⋆ = 0.379 ± 0.016M⊙ and a radius of R⋆ = 0.382 ± 0.012R⊙. The ultra-short-period planet LTT 3780 b (P(b) = 0.77 d) with a radius of 1.35(−0.06,+0.06) R⊕, a mass of 2.34(−0.23,+0.24) M⊕, and a bulk density of 5.24(−0.81,+0.94) g/cu.cm joins the population of Earth-size planets with rocky, terrestrial composition. The outer planet, LTT 3780 c, with an orbital period of 12.25 d, radius of 2.42(−0.10,+0.10) R⊕, mass of 6.29(−0.61,+0.63) M⊕, and mean density of 2.45(−0.37,+0.44) g/cu.cm belongs to the population of dense sub-Neptunes. With the two planets located on opposite sides of the radius gap, this planetary system is an excellent target for testing planetary formation, evolution, and atmospheric models. In particular, LTT 3780 c is an ideal object for atmospheric studies with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST).

G. Nowak↗

KMT-2019-BLG-0842Lb: A Cold Planet below the Uranus/Sun Mass Ratio

We report the discovery of a cold planet with a very low planet/host mass ratio of q = (4.09 ± 0.27) × 10^−5, which is similar to the ratio of Uranus/Sun (q = 4.37 × 10^−5) in the solar system. The Bayesian estimates for the host mass, planet mass, system distance, and planet–host projected separation are M(host) = 0.76 ± 0.40Mꙩ, M(planet) = 10.3 ± 5.5Mꚛ, D(L) = 3.3 ± 1.3 kpc, and a(⊥) = 3.3 ± 1.4 au, respectively. The consistency of the color and brightness expected from the estimated lens mass and distance with those of the blend suggests the possibility that the most blended light comes from the planet host, and this hypothesis can be established if high-resolution images are taken during the next (2020) bulge season. We discuss the importance of conducting optimized photometry and aggressive follow-up observations for moderately or very high magnification events to maximize the detection rate of planets with very low mass ratios.

Youn Kil Jung↗

Detectability of Transiting Terrestrial Planets in the Habitable Zone with TESS

In the Revised TESS Habitable Zone Catalog, Kaltenegger et al. (2021) identified the 2-min TESS target stars that were observed for sufficient duration over consecutive primary mission sectors to unambiguously capture a transit signature of planets orbiting in the Habitable Zone (HZ). The Catalog did not, however, identify the host stars for which transiting planets with HZ orbits and specified radii would be detectable based on the photometric precision of the retrieved light curves. We employ the Combined Differential Photometric Precision (CDPP) computed at 15 pulse durations in the Science Processing Operations Center (SPOC) transit searches of the primary mission light curves to estimate the signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) associated with transiting terrestrial planets (1.0 Re <= Rp<= 2.0 Re) in the HZ of the Catalog stars. We consider orbital periods under three HZ scenarios: Recent Venus, Earth Analog, and Early Mars. Given S/N, we further estimate the probability of detection of transiting terrestrial planets for each Catalog star and HZ scenario in the primary mission SPOC transit searches. We also present the expected yield by HZ scenario and planet radius under the assumption that all Catalog stars host such planets.

TESS↗

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: A search for Planet 9

We use Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) observations at 98 GHz (2015–2019), 150 GHz (2013–2019), and 229 GHz (2017–2019) to perform a blind shift-and-stack search for Planet 9. The search explores distances from 300 au to 2000 au and velocities up to 6\farcm3 per year, depending on the distance (r). For a 5 Earth-mass Planet 9 the detection limit varies from 325 au to 625 au, depending on the sky location. For a 10 Earth-mass planet the corresponding range is 425 au to 775 au. The predicted aphelion and most likely location of the planet corresponds to the shallower end of these ranges. The search covers the whole 18,000 square degrees of the ACT survey. No significant detections are found, which is used to place limits on the millimeter-wave flux density of Planet 9 over much of its orbit. Overall we eliminate roughly 17% and 9% of the parameter space for a 5 and 10 Earth-mass Planet 9, respectively. These bounds approach those of a recent INPOP19a ephemeris-based analysis, but do not exceed it. We also provide a list of the 10 strongest candidates from the search for possible follow-up. More generally, we exclude (at 95% confidence) the presence of an unknown solar system object within our survey area brighter than 4–12 mJy (depending on position) at 150 GHz with current distance 300 au < r < 600 au and heliocentric angular velocity 1\farcm5 per yr < v x (500au/r) < 2\farcs3 per yr, corresponding to low-to-moderate eccentricities. These limits worsen gradually beyond 600 au, reaching 5–15 mJy by 1500 au.

Sigurd Naess↗

TOI-1231 b: A Temperate, Neptune-sized Planet Transiting the Nearby M3 Dwarf NLTT 24399

We report the discovery of a transiting, temperate, Neptune-sized exoplanet orbiting the nearby (d = 27.5 pc), M3V star TOI-1231 (NLTT 24399, L 248-27, 2MASS J10265947-5228099). The planet was detected using photometric data from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite and followed up with observations from the Las Cumbres Observatory and the Antarctica Search for Transiting ExoPlanets program. Combining the photometric data sets, we find that the newly discovered planet has a radius of 3.65(+0.16,-0.15)Rꚛ and an orbital period of 24.246 days. Radial velocity measurements obtained with the Planet Finder Spectrograph on the Magellan Clay telescope confirm the existence of the planet and lead to a mass measurement of 15.5 ± 3.3 Mꚛ. With an equilibrium temperature of just 330 K, TOI-1231 b is one of the coolest small planets accessible for atmospheric studies thus far, and its host star's bright near-infrared brightness (J = 8.88, Ks = 8.07) makes it an exciting target for the Hubble Space Telescope and the James Webb Space Telescope. Future atmospheric observations would enable the first comparative planetology efforts in the 250–350 K temperature regime via comparisons with K2-18 b. Furthermore, TOI-1231's high systemic radial velocity (70.5 km/s) may allow for the detection of low-velocity hydrogen atoms escaping the planet by Doppler, shifting the H i Lyα stellar emission away from the geocoronal and interstellar medium absorption features.

Jennifer A. Burt↗

Advancement of Entry System Modeling to Support Exploration of Giant Planets

This paper describes NASA’s efforts to advance entry system modeling and simulation capabilities to support future exploration of Giant planets. The Giant planets are key destinations of interest to the planetary science community for their potential to provide insight into the formation and evolution of our Solar System, as well as extrasolar planetary systems. To date, the Galileo atmospheric probe is the only purpose-built entry probe to a Giant planet. Post-flight analysis of Galileo’s performance showed that there was significant recession of the thermal protection system (TPS), well beyond what was anticipated on the flank, and this was due in part to insufficiently accurate capability for estimating the flight environment and TPS response. While Galileo ultimately survived its flight, the example serves to highlight the great challenge of designing successful missions for environments that are poorly understood or where models have not yet been validated. An important means to reduce mission risks is the incorporation of physics-based modeling with well-quantified uncertainties. The emphasis on physics-based modeling – in contrast to empirically-driven models – is motivated by the fact that it is impossible to completely replicate entry environments through ground tests and, therefore, extrapolation to the flight environment is required. Basing analysis in fundamental physics removes the bias of ground test limitations, though one must then be careful to properly characterize model inputs, simplifying assumptions, and the limits wherein the model is valid. NASA’s Entry Systems Modeling (ESM) Project is tasked with investigating such considerations for planetary science missions across the Solar System, and in recent years has begun to do so for Giant planets. The most distinctive features of the Giant planets, from an entry system perspective, are the atmospheres composed primarily of hydrogen and helium. The entry velocities of proposed missions are generally very large and can therefore be expected to result in significant convective and radiative heating generated by the vehicle’s shock layer. Yet thermochemical behavior of the hydrogen-helium system is not well understood under such conditions. The ESM project is leading efforts to develop accurate thermochemical databases based on state-of-the-art measurements in the Electric Arc Shock Tube and detailed computational chemistry. The large heat fluxes anticipated by missions has driven interest in new TPS materials, in particular woven materials, which may be enabling but have never been flown before. Consequently, multiscale models are in development to describe properties and performance of the materials from micro- to system-scale. The goal is to not only provide accurate thermal response but also to inform thermostructural reliability predictions for extreme entries. Additionally, new computational models have been developed to evaluate performance of non-destructive evaluation techniques which are vital to establishing acceptance of systems to be free of manufacturing faults like material cracking, voids, and debonding. Finally, in the area of guidance and control, aerocapture has been shown conceptually to provide a number of mission benefits, including reducing transit time and increasing payload fraction. The ESM project is building a launch-to-landing trajectory simulation capability to enable detailed studies of aerocapture maneuvers in the context of Giant planets missions. The final presentation and paper will describe each of these topics in detail, including discussion of specific gaps and the technical approach to solving them. In addition, the final paper will briefly discuss ongoing coordination between ESM project work and an ESA-funded technology development activity comprised of validation testing in the Oxford T6, IRS PWK and IST ESTHER tunnels, as well as state-to-state modeling of the shock layer to better represent non-Boltzmann energy distributions leading to non-equilibrium radiation.

Entry systems↗

TIC 172900988: A Transiting Circumbinary Planet Detected in One Sector of TESS Data

We report the first discovery of a transiting circumbinary planet detected from a single sector of Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) data. During Sector 21, the planet TIC 172900988b transited the primary star and then five days later it transited the secondary star. The binary is itself eclipsing, with a period P ≈ 19.7 days and an eccentricity e ≈ 0.45. Archival data from ASAS-SN, Evryscope, KELT, and SuperWASP reveal a prominent apsidal motion of the binary orbit, caused by the dynamical interactions between the binary and the planet. A comprehensive photodynamical analysis of the TESS, archival and follow-up data yields stellar masses and radii of M(1) = 1.2384 ± 0.0007 Mꙩ and R(1) = 1.3827 ± 0.0016 Rꙩ for the primary and M(2) = 1.2019 ± 0.0007 Mꙩ and R(2) = 1.3124 ± 0.0012 Rꙩ for the secondary. The radius of the planet is R(3) = 11.25 ± 0.44 Rꚛ (1.004 ± 0.039R(Jup)). The planet’s mass and orbital properties are not uniquely determined—there are six solutions with nearly equal likelihood. Specifically, we find that the planet’s mass is in the range of 824 ≲ M3 ≲ 981 Mꚛ (2.65 ≲ M3 ≲ 3.09M(Jup)), its orbital period could be 188.8, 190.4, 194.0, 199.0, 200.4, or 204.1 days, and the eccentricity is between 0.02 and 0.09. At V = 10.141 mag, the system is accessible for high-resolution spectroscopic observations, e.g., the Rossiter–McLaughlin effect and transit spectroscopy.

Veselin B. Kostov↗

The Stability of Hydrogen-Rich Atmospheres of Earth-Like Planets

Understanding hydrogen escape is essential to understanding the limits to habitability, both for liquid water where the Sun is bright, but also to assess the true potential of H2 as a greenhouse gas where the Sun is faint. Hydrogen-rich primary atmospheres of Earth-like planets can result either from gravitational capture of solar nebular gases (with helium), or from impact shock processing of a wide variety of volatile-rich planetesimals (typically accompanied by H2O, CO2, and under the right circumstances, CH4). Most studies of hydrogen escape from planets focus on determining how fast the hydrogen escapes. In general this requires solving hydro- dynamic equations that take into account the acceleration of hydrogen through a critical transonic point and an energy budget that should include radiative heating and cooling, thermal conduction, the work done in lifting the hydrogen against gravity, and the residual heat carried by the hydrogen as it leaves. But for planets from which hydrogen escape is modest or insignificant, the atmosphere can be approximated as hydrostatic, which is much simpler, and for which a relatively full-featured treatment of radiative cooling by embedded molecules, atoms, and ions such as CO2 and H3+ is straightforward. Previous work has overlooked the fact that the H2 molecule is extremely efficient at exciting non-LTE CO2 15 micron emission, and thus that radiative cooling can be markedly more efficient when H2 is abundant. We map out the region of phase space in which terrestrial planets keep hydrogen-rich atmospheres, which is what we actually want to know for habitability. We will use this framework to reassess Tian et al's hypothesis that H2-rich atmospheres may have been rather long-lived on Earth itself. Finally, we will address the empirical observation that rocky planets with thin or negligible atmospheres are rarely or never bigger than 1.6 Earth radii.

Earth-like planets↗

The Presence of Methane in the Atmosphere of an Extrasolar Planet

Molecules present in the atmospheres of extrasolar planets are expected to influence strongly the balance of atmospheric radiation, to trace dynamical and chemical processes, and to indicate the presence of disequilibrium effects. As molecules have the potential to reveal atmospheric conditions and chemistry, searching for them is a high priority. The rotational-vibrational transition bands of water, carbon monoxide and methane are anticipated to be the primary sources of non-continuum opacity in hot-Jupiter planets. As these bands can overlap in wavelength, and the corresponding signatures from them are weak, decisive identification requires precision infrared spectroscopy. Here we report a near-infrared transmission spectrum of the planet HD 189733b that shows the presence of methane. Additionally, a resolved water vapour band at 1.9 (micro)m confirms the recent claim4 of water in this object. On thermochemical grounds, carbon monoxide is expected to be abundant in the upper atmosphere of hot-Jupiter planets, but is not identifiable here; therefore the detection of methane rather than carbon monoxide in such a hot planet could signal the presence of a horizontal chemical gradient away from the permanent dayside, or it may imply an ill-understood photochemical mechanism that leads to an enhancement of methane.

atmospheric radiation↗

Directly Imaged Giant Planets: What Do We Hope to Learn?

As we move into an era when GPI and SPHERE are (hopefully) discovering and characterizing new young giant planets, it is worthwhile to step back and review our science goals for young giant planets. Of course for individual planets we ideally would hope to measure mass, radius, atmospheric composition, temperature, and cloud properties, but how do these characteristics fit into our broader understanding of planetary system origin and evolution theories? In my presentation I will review both the specifics of what we hope to learn from newly discovered young worlds as well as how these characteristics inform our broader understanding of giant planets and planetary systems. Finally I will consider the limitations realistic datasets will place on our ability to understand newly discovered planets, illustrating with data from any new such worlds that are available by the conference date.

temperature↗

Mapping the Region in the Nearest Star System to Search for Habitable Planets

Circumstellar planets within the alpha Centauri AB star system have been suggested through formation models and recent observations, and ACESat (Belikov et al. AAS Meeting #225, #311.01, 2015) is a proposed space mission designed to directly image Earth-sized planets in the habitable zones of both of these stars. The alpha Centauri system is billions of years old, so planets are only expected to be found in regions where their orbits are long-lived. We evaluate the extent of the regions within the alpha Centauri AB star system where small planets are able to orbit for billion-year timescales and we map the positions in the sky plane where planets on stable orbits about either stellar component may appear. We confirm the qualitative results of Wiegert & Holman (Astron. J. 113, 1445, 1997) regarding the approximate size of the regions of stable orbits, which are larger for retrograde orbits relative to the binary than for prograde orbits. Additionally, we find that mean motion resonances with the binary orbit leave an imprint on the limits of orbital stability, and the effects of the Lidov-Kozai mechanism are also readily apparent. Overall, orbits in the habitable zones near the plane of the binary are stable, whereas high-inclination orbits are short-lived.

alpha Centauri AB star system↗

Chaos in Kepler's Multiple Planet Systems and K2s Observations of the Atmospheres of Uranus Neptune

More than one-third of the 4700 planet candidates found by NASA's Kepler spacecraft during its prime mission are associated with target stars that have more than one planet candidate, and such "multis" account for the vast majority of candidates that have been verified as true planets. The large number of multis tells us that flat multiplanet systems like our Solar System are common. Virtually all of the candidate planetary systems are stable, as tested by numerical integrations that assume a physically motivated mass-radius relationship, but some of the systems lie in chaotic regions close to instability. The characteristics of some of the most interesting confirmed Kepler multi-planet systems will be discussed. The Kepler spacecraft's 'second life' in theK2 mission has allowed it to obtain long time-series observations of Solar System targets, including the giant planets Uranus & Neptune. These observations show variability caused by the chaotic weather patterns on Uranus & Neptune.

planet candidates↗

The Frequency of Snowline-Region Planets from Four Years of OGLE-MOA-Wise Second-Generation Microlensing

We present a statistical analysis of the first four seasons from a second-generation microlensing survey for extrasolar planets, consisting of near-continuous time coverage of 8 deg to the 2nd power of the Galactic bulge by the Optical Gravitational Lens Experiment (OGLE), Microlensing Observations in Astrophysics (MOA), and Wise microlensing surveys. During this period, 224 microlensing events were observed by all three groups. Over 12% of the events showed a deviation from single-lens microlensing, and for approx. 1/3 of those the anomaly is likely caused by a planetary companion. For each of the 224 events, we have performed numerical ray-tracing simulations to calculate the detection efficiency of possible companions as a function of companion-to-host mass ratio and separation. Accounting for the detection efficiency, we find that 55 +34 -22%of microlensed stars host a snowline planet. Moreover, we find that Neptune-mass planets are approx.10 times more common than Jupiter-mass planets. The companion-to-host mass-ratio distribution shows a deficit at q approx. 10 (exp -2), separating the distribution into two companion populations, analogous to the stellar-companion and planet populations, seen in radial-velocity surveys around solar-like stars. Our survey, however, which probes mainly lower mass stars, suggests a minimum in the distribution in the super-Jupiter mass range, and a relatively high occurrence of brown-dwarf companions.

extrasolar planets↗

Kepler Planet Detection Metrics: Robovetter Completeness and Effectiveness for Data Release 25

In general, the Kepler pipeline identifies a list of Threshold Crossing Events (TCEs), which are periodic flux decrements meeting certain criteria (Jenkins, 2017). These TCEs are reviewed and those that appear consistent with astrophysically transiting or eclipsing systems are classified as Kepler Objects of Interest (KOIs). Further review is given to KOIs, which are then dispositioned as Planet Candidates (PCs) or False Positive (FPs). FPs are further denoted by four major flags that indicate if the signal is Not Transit-Like (NTL), due to a Stellar Eclipse (SS; previously referred to as Significant Secondary), and/or due to contamination from a source other than the target as evidenced by a Centroid Offset (CO) oran Ephemeris Match (EM) with another object. This entire TCE review process is known as dispositioning or vetting.In the first five Kepler mission planet candidate catalogs (Borucki et al., 2011a,b; Batalha et al., 2013; Burke et al., 2014; Rowe et al., 2015), TCEs were manually examined on an individual basis and dispositioned using various plots and quantitative diagnostic tests (see e.g., Coughlin, 2017). In the sixth catalog, Mullally et al. (2015a) employed partial automation via simple parameter cuts to automatically disposition a large fraction of TCEs as not transit-like. Mullally et al. (2015a) also used an automated technique known as the centroid Robovetter (Mullally, 2017) to automatically identify some FP KOIs due to centroid offsets - a telltale signature of light contamination from another target. The remaining targets were manually dispositioned. In the seventh catalog, Coughlin et al. (2016) automated theentire dispositioning process using what is collectively known simply as the Robovetter.In the eighth and final mission catalog, Thompson et al. (2017) use a revised Robovetter to automate the dispositioning of all TCEs with an emphasis on creating a catalog suitable for accurately determining planet occurrence rates. In order to calculate accurate occurrence rates, the completeness and effectiveness of the Robovetter must be characterized. We define these terms as applied to the Robovetter, following Thompson et al. (2017), as:1. Completeness: The fraction of transiting planets detected by the pipeline that are classified as planet candidates by the Robovetter.2. Effectiveness: The fraction of false positives detected by the pipeline that are classified as false positives by the Robovetter.The remainder of this document describes products that can be used to quantitatively assess Robovetter completeness and effectiveness for an arbitrary set of Kepler stars.

Robovetter↗

Three Red Suns in the Sky: A Transiting, Terrestrial Planet in a Triple M-dwarf System at 6.9 pc

We present the discovery from Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) data of LTT 1445Ab. At a distance of 6.9 pc, it is the second nearest transiting exoplanet system found to date, and the closest one known for which the primary is an M dwarf. The host stellar system consists of three mid-to-late M dwarfs in a hierarchical configuration, which are blended in one TESS pixel. We use MEarth data and results from the Science Processing Operations Center data validation report to determine that the planet transits the primary star in the system. The planet has a radius of {1.38}_{-0.12}^{+0.13} {R}_{\oplus }, an orbital period of {5.35882}_{-0.00031}^{+0.00030} days, and an equilibrium temperature of {433}_{-27}^{+28} K. With radial velocities from the High Accuracy Radial Velocity Planet Searcher, we place a 3σ upper mass limit of 8.4 {M}_{\oplus } on the planet. LTT 1445Ab provides one of the best opportunities to date for the spectroscopic study of the atmosphere of a terrestrial world. We also present a detailed characterization of the host stellar system. We use high-resolution spectroscopy and imaging to rule out the presence of any other close stellar or brown dwarf companions. Nineteen years of photometric monitoring of A and BC indicate a moderate amount of variability, in agreement with that observed in the TESS light-curve data. We derive a preliminary astrometric orbit for the BC pair that reveals an edge-on and eccentric configuration. The presence of a transiting planet in this system hints that the entire system may be co-planar, implying that the system may have formed from the early fragmentation of an individual protostellar core.

Binaries↗

TESS Hunt for Young and Maturing Exoplanets (THYME). VI. An 11 Myr Giant Planet Transiting a Very-low-mass Star in Lower Centaurus Crux

Mature super-Earths and sub-Neptunes are predicted to be ≃ Jovian radius when younger than 10 Myr. Thus, we expect to find 5-15 R ⊕ planets around young stars even if their older counterparts harbor none. We report the discovery and validation of TOI 1227b, a 0.85 ± 0.05 R J (9.5 R ⊕) planet transiting a very-low-mass star (0.170 ± 0.015 M ⊙) every 27.4 days. TOI 1227's kinematics and strong lithium absorption confirm that it is a member of a previously discovered subgroup in the Lower Centaurus Crux OB association, which we designate the Musca group. We derive an age of 11 ± 2 Myr for Musca, based on lithium, rotation, and the color-magnitude diagram of Musca members. The TESS data and ground-based follow-up show a deep (2.5%) transit. We use multiwavelength transit observations and radial velocities from the IGRINS spectrograph to validate the signal as planetary in nature, and we obtain an upper limit on the planet mass of ≃0.5 M J. Because such large planets are exceptionally rare around mature low-mass stars, we suggest that TOI 1227b is still contracting and will eventually turn into one of the more common <5 R ⊕ planets.

5–15 R⊕ planets↗