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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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206 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

The SAGA Survey. III. A Census of 101 Satellite Systems around Milky Way–mass Galaxies

We present Data Release 3 (DR3) of the Satellites Around Galactic Analogs (SAGA) Survey, a spectroscopic survey characterizing satellite galaxies around Milky Way (MW)-mass galaxies. The SAGA Survey DR3 includes 378 satellites identified across 101 MW-mass systems in the distance range of 25–40.75 Mpc, and an accompanying redshift catalog of background galaxies (including about 46,000 taken by SAGA) in the SAGA footprint of 84.7 deg 2 . The number of confirmed satellites per system ranges from zero to 13, in the stellar mass range of 10 6−10 M ⊙ . Based on a detailed completeness model, this sample accounts for 94% of the true satellite population down to M ⋆ = 10 7.5 M ⊙ . We find that the mass of the most massive satellite in SAGA systems is the strongest predictor of satellite abundance; one-third of the SAGA systems contain LMC-mass satellites, and they tend to have more satellites than the MW. The SAGA satellite radial distribution is less concentrated than the MW's, and the SAGA quenched fraction below 10 8.5 M ⊙ is lower than the MW's, but in both cases, the MW is within 1σ of SAGA system-to-system scatter. SAGA satellites do not exhibit a clear corotating signal as has been suggested in the MW/M31 satellite systems. Although the MW differs in many respects from the typical SAGA system, these differences can be reconciled if the MW is an older, slightly less massive host with a recently accreted LMC/SMC system.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine-learning-based estimates of global natural vegetated wetland methane emissions (2000–2025)

Wetlands are the largest natural source of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), yet comprehensive global budgets are typically delayed by years, preventing a timely understanding of CH 4 sources, sinks, and trends. To reduce this delay, we present a model emulator-driven framework and accompanying workflow that enable timely, continuous emission updates using a machine-learning emulator to reconstruct spatially explicit monthly emission fields at 1° × 1° resolution. We apply this framework to a global dataset of natural vegetated wetland CH 4 emissions to extend the most recent Global Methane Budget (GMB; Saunois et al., 2025) record that covers the 2000–2020 emissions through 2025. In the test data (∼ 30 % of the total dataset), the emulator achieved a global R 2 of 0.65 ± 0.003 (mean ± 95 % CI, hereafter) and an RMSE of 5.49 ± 0.12×10 -3 Tg CH 4 yr −1 . The emulator is trained on 35 GMB model estimates, including 22 process-based models and 13 atmospheric inversions, paired with 10 ensemble realizations of 11 gridded climate predictor variables from atmospheric reanalyses. Our results show that the global mean predicted wetland CH 4 emissions for 2021–2025 (157.8 ± 2.4 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) are not significantly higher (∼ 0.05 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) than the 2000–2020 baseline. However, this stability masks a significant hemispheric redistribution of emissions. We detect an increase in Northern Hemisphere (NH) emissions in 2021–2025, with mid- and high-latitudes increasing by 0.76 ± 0.07 and 0.35 ± 0.03 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , respectively, while the tropics and Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropics show offsetting negative trends (−0.95 ± 0.19 and -0.11 ± 0.02 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , respectively). The predicted emissions are able to capture the low emissions in 2023 in South America linked to El Niño-related drought, as reported by recent studies (Ciais et al., 2026; Quinn et al., 2025). Furthermore, we identify a distinct seasonal amplification of global emission trends that peaks in late boreal summer. This new modeled dataset and operational framework bridge the gap between the latest updated budgets and low-latency monitoring, providing a scalable capacity to frequently update global emission estimates and critical early warnings of regional wetland feedback loops. The data are publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18870108 (Li et al., 2026).

Li, Mengze [National University of Singapore (Sing↗
DOE OSTI2025

ELM2.1-XGBfire1.0: improving wildfire prediction by integrating a machine learning fire model in a land surface model

Wildfires have shown increasing trends in both frequency and severity across the contiguous United States (CONUS). However, process-based fire models have difficulties in accurately simulating the burned area over the CONUS due to a simplification of the physical process and cannot capture the interplay among fire, ignition, climate, and human activities. The deficiency of burned area simulation deteriorates the description of fire impact on energy balance, water budget, and carbon fluxes in the Earth system models (ESMs). Alternatively, fire models based on machine learning (ML), which capture statistical relationships between the burned area and environmental factors, have shown promising burned area predictions and corresponding fire impact simulation. We develop a hybrid framework (ELM2.1-XGBFire1.0) that integrates an eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) version 2.1. A Fortran–C–Python deep learning bridge is adapted to support online communication between ELM and the ML fire model. Specifically, the burned area predicted by the ML-based wildfire model is directly passed to ELM to adjust the carbon pool and vegetation dynamics after disturbance, which are then used as predictors in the ML-based fire model in the next time step. Evaluated against the historical burned area from Global Fire Emissions Database 5 from 2001–2019, the ELM2.1-XGBFire1.0 outperforms process-based fire models in terms of spatial distribution and seasonal variations. The ELM2.1-XGBFire1.0 has proven to be a new tool for studying vegetation–fire interactions and, more importantly, enables seamless exploration of climate–fire feedback, working as an active component of E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease among former United States Department of Energy workers: comorbidities and lung function changes

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the United States and is frequently associated with multiple comorbidities which lead to poor COPD outcomes in the general population. However, little is known regarding COPD comorbidities in occupational cohorts whose exposure experiences could result in differences in comorbidities compared to the general population. These differences may also be important for assessing COPD outcomes such as lung function changes or decline. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to: (1) identify and describe clusters of COPD comorbidities among Department of Energy (DOE) former workers; (2) assess if the attributes of the identified clusters differ from those identified among the general population based on the published literature, and (3) identify predictors of lung function changes and decline among DOE former workers.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying Operational Drivers of Multimodal Biometric Verification in Aerial Surveillance

Multimodal biometric verification is increasingly applied across operational contexts ranging from close-range security cameras and building-mounted surveillance to long-range ground sensors and unmanned aerial system (UAS) imagery. Variations in acquisition conditions—such as image resolution, viewing geometry, and motion artifacts—pose significant challenges for cross-domain algorithmic generalization. This study evaluates two independent multimodal biometric verification systems developed under the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) Biometric Recognition and Identification at Altitude and Range (BRIAR) program, comparing performance on close-range and aerial datasets. Close-range video served as a baseline to quantify the decline in verification performance on aerial footage. The dataset included six UAS platforms, spanning small quadcopters at 10m altitude to medium-sized fixed-wing aircraft at 360m. Mixed-effects logistic regression identified image resolution (head and body pixel counts), head height, sensor characteristics, and algorithm selection as primary determinants of verification success, whereas demographic attributes and mission gait were not significant predictors. Activity type and collection site influenced performance in close-range data but had negligible impact on UAS imagery. These results clarify modality-specific strengths and limitations and highlight opportunities to enhance cross-domain biometric verification.

Peluso, Alina [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000328950406)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Virtual Growth of SRF Materials: A Machine Learning Approach to Predict the Crystalline Structural Ordering in Nb Surface Oxides

Niobium's native surface oxide affects SRF cavity and superconducting qubit performance, motivating interest in controlling its crystalline structure. We combine a literature-derived machine-learning analysis with temperature-dependent XRD to study crystalline ordering in Nb2O5. Random Forest models, trained on 74 processing conditions from 17 papers and validated by leave-one-group-out cross-validation, predicted broad crystallinity outcomes well (balanced accuracy 0.809), but struggled with specific polymorph identity (0.577). Annealing temperature was the dominant predictor across all targets; oxygen partial pressure showed negligible importance, reflecting narrow literature coverage rather than physical irrelevance. Temperature-dependent XRD on anodized and H2O2-treated Niobium showed structural evolution consistent with the machine learning predictions. Our model and overall approach provide a data-driven framework for identifying and optimizing conditions that promote crystallization in initially amorphous oxides. This framework can guide the selection of growth and post-annealing conditions for Nb surfaces by narrowing the experimental parameter space, thereby reducing trial-and-error efforts in developing oxide structures relevant to SRF applications.

Tilkin, Anthony [Unlisted, US, IL; Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Relevant biochar characteristics influencing compressive strength of biochar-cement mortars

To counteract the contribution of CO 2 emissions by cement production and utilization, biochar is being harnessed as a carbon-negative additive in concrete. Increasing the cement replacement and biochar dosage will increase the carbon offset, but there is large variability in methods being used and many researchers report strength decreases at cement replacements beyond 5%. This work presents a reliable method to replace 10% of the cement mass with a vast selection of biochars without decreasing ultimate compressive strength, and in many cases significantly improving it. By carefully quantifying the physical and chemical properties of each biochar used, machine learning algorithms were used to elucidate the three most influential biochar characteristics that control mortar strength: initial saturation percentage, oxygen-to-carbon ratio, and soluble silicon. These results provide additional research avenues for utilizing several potential biomass waste streams to increase the biochar dosage in cement mixes without decreasing mechanical properties.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Utah FORGE 6-3712: Probabilistic Estimation of Seismic Response Using Physics-Informed Recurrent Neural Networks - 2024 Annual Workshop Presentation

This is a presentation on the Probabilistic Estimation of Seismic Response Using Physics-Informed Recurrent Neural Networks by GTC Analytics, presented by Jesse Williams. This video slide presentation discusses the development of machine learning-based predictive tools to estimate the magnitude-frequency response of stimulation-induced seismicity. This presentation was featured in the Utah FORGE R&D Annual Workshop on August 15, 2024.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗