Reliability and performance experience with flat-plate photovoltaic modules
Statistical models developed to define the most likely sources of photovoltaic (PV) array failures and the optimum method of allowing for the defects in order to achieve a 20 yr lifetime with acceptable performance degradation are summarized. Significant parameters were the cost of energy, annual power output, initial cost, replacement cost, rate of module replacement, the discount rate, and the plant lifetime. Acceptable degradation allocations were calculated to be 0.0001 cell failures/yr, 0.005 module failures/yr, 0.05 power loss/yr, a 0.01 rate of power loss/yr, and a 25 yr module wear-out length. Circuit redundancy techniques were determined to offset cell failures using fault tolerant designs such as series/parallel and bypass diode arrangements. Screening processes have been devised to eliminate cells that will crack in operation, and multiple electrical contacts at each cell compensate for the cells which escape the screening test and then crack when installed. The 20 yr array lifetime is expected to be achieved in the near-term.