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DOE OSTI2024

Least-cost Optimal Distribution Grid Expansion (LODGE) v1

LODGE finds the least-cost portfolio of traditional distribution system upgrades to integrate new loads and behind-the-meter DERs in combination with advanced non-wire alternative (NWA) planning solutions, such as utility-owned storage and distributed PV. Working with a set of least-cost solutions per feeder/substation allows us to benchmark and compare techno-economic performance of different traditional and NWA planning solutions. An important aspect of the LODGE model is that it includes power flow operation constraints. This means that the least-cost planning solutions delivered by LODGE are technically feasible. Available projects in LODGE portfolio include: 1) feeder reconductoring; 2) transformers upgrades; 3) non-wire alternatives, such as strategic siting and sizing of storage and distributed PV; 4) voltage regulators.

Heleno, Miguel↗

DOE OSTI2023

Determining circuit model parameters from operation data for PV system degradation analysis: $\mathrm{PVPRO}$

Physics-based circuit parameters like series and shunt resistance are essential to provide insights into the degradation status of photovoltaic (PV) arrays. However, calculating these parameters typically requires a full current-voltage characteristic (I-V curve), the acquisition of which involves specific measurement devices and costly methods. Thus, I-V curves of the PV system level are often not available. Here this paper proposes a methodology (PVPRO) to estimate these I-V curve parameters using only operation (string-level DC voltage and current) and weather data (irradiance and temperature). PVPRO first performs multi-stage data pre-processing to remove noisy data. Next, the time-series DC data are used to fit an equivalent circuit single-diode model (SDM) to estimate the circuit parameters by minimizing the differences between the measured and estimated values. In this way, the time evolutions of the SDM parameters are obtained. We evaluate PVPRO on synthetic datasets and find an excellent estimation of both SDM and the key I-V parameters (e.g., open-circuit voltage, short-circuit current, maximum power, etc.) with an average relative error of 0.55%. The performance, especially the extracted degradation rate of parameters, is robust to various measurement noises and the presence of faults. In addition, PVPRO is applied to a 271 kW PV field system. The relative error between the real and estimated operation voltage and current is less than 1%, suggesting that degradation trends are well captured. PVPRO represents a promising open-source tool to extract the time-series degradation trends of key PV parameters from routine operation data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2019

Photogrammetry-Based Analysis of the On-Orbit Structural Dynamics of the Roll-Out Solar Array

The Roll-Out Solar Array (ROSA) flight experiment was launched to the International Space Station (ISS) on June 3rd, 2017. ROSA is an innovative, lightweight solar array with a flexible substrate that makes use of the stored strain energy in its composite structural members to provide deployment without the use of motors. This paper will discuss the results of various structural dynamics experiments conducted on the ISS during the weeks following launch. Data gathered from instrumentation on the solar array wing during the experiments was previously compared with pre-flight predictions from two different Finite Element Modeling (FEM) efforts. In this paper, data generated from photogrammetry is compared with accelerometer data and used to extend previous conclusions. Whereas previous analyses were only able to track the accelerations of six discrete points on the structure and photovoltaic (PV) blanket of ROSA, the photogrammetry analysis makes available displacements for dozens of points distributed throughout the array. This larger data set makes it possible to compare higher-order PV blanket modes with FEM predictions, in addition to verifying conclusions reached using accelerometer data. The goal in this effort was to better understand the performance of ROSA and to improve modeling efforts for future designs of similar solar arrays.

Chamberlain, Matthew K.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Community-Based Transactive Coordination Mechanism for Enabling Grid Edge Systems

The changing landscape of the electricity industry, characterized by a surge in distributed energy resources (DERs) and proactive customers, necessitates practical solutions for coordinated operations especially at the distribution-level. This paper introduces a community-based transactive coordination mechanism designed to incentivize customers for providing localized and system-level services reflected through real-time prices. The work presents a bidding approach for communities with DERs, such as solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery energy storage systems (BESS), to formulate their price-responsiveness for retail energy coordination, emphasizing a community-centric model. By sending bidding curves to a third-party, the mechanism enables customers with DER assets to actively participate in localized coordination with the load serving entity (LSE), thereby supplementing each other’s and even the utilities needs through a shared energy economy. The proposed transactive mechanism is implemented leveraging a co-simulation framework that integrates a distribution grid simulator and Python-based agents for performance evaluation. Collaboration with a local utility to access real distribution feeder models and consumption profiles yields simulation results demonstrating the potential to reduce costs by 12\% for communities with DERs like PV and BESS.

Community-based coordination, grid-edge systems, R↗

DOE OSTI2022

FAIRification, Quality Assessment, and Missingness Pattern Discovery for Spatiotemporal Photovoltaic Data

The growth of the photovoltaic market has pushed the demand for power forecasting and performance evaluation for a huge population of PV power plants. Many of these power plants have spatiotemporal coherence that can be utilized for improving model accuracy. We have demonstrated in this paper the FAIRification of spatiotemporal PV time series data. Through the creation of a solar power plant ontology, we propose standards for the naming and structure of metadata used to describe the data from these power plants. Using the structure from this ontology, we have developed both R and Python packages for the automation of the FAIRification process. Going further, we have also developed an R package that automates the analysis of the quality of a data set through the designation of letter grades. To solve the issue of data missingness, we propose the use of St-GNN autoencoders to detect and impute missing values from a data set by utilizing data from power plants nearby.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Model Predictive Control-Based Dual-Mode Operation of an Energy-Stored Quasi-Z-Source Photovoltaic Power System

The energy-stored quasi-Z-source inverter (ES-qZSI) has attracted much attention for photovoltaic (PV) power generations, due to its capability to stabilize the PV power fluctuations with simple structure and other advantages of Z-source inverter. The improved dual-mode (DM) ES-qZSI is able to support all-weather operation even at night or cloudy days when PV power is extremely low. However, the traditional proportional–integral (PI) based control suffers from complicated controller design and poor dynamic response during mode transition, due to two sets of PI control required for the daytime and night operation modes. In order to overcome that, here in this article, we propose a model predictive control strategy for the DM-ES-qZSI PV power system. The system predictive models in both day and night operating modes are derived. The control strategy is disclosed to ensure high performance of the system, through calling the predictive models and defined cost functions of the two modes within a single control loop. Simulation and experiment are carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Photovoltaic Analysis and Response Support (PARS) Platform for Solar Situational Awareness and Resiliency Services

The project's primary objective is to develop a digital-twin based Photovoltaic (PV) Analysis and Response Support (PARS) platform, which aims to provide real-time situational awareness and optimal response plans. This platform is designed to enhance the performance of hybrid PV systems, making them competitive with or even superior to conventional generation resources. The PARS platform enabled the project team to develop and evaluate an extensive suite of grid support functionalities for the hybrid PV systems to enhance grid performance, across key areas including visibility, dispatchability, security, resilience, and reliability. Given the global push toward achieving 100% clean energy by 2035, there is a significant increase in the integration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) throughout the energy grid. Effectively managing the inherent variability and uncertainty associated with IBRs is crucial for ensuring cost-effectiveness, reliability, and security in both the main grid and islanded microgrids. Constrained to a limited array of IEEE test systems or standard feeder models, traditional IBR modeling struggles to assimilate new field data, accurately reflect system dynamics, and adapt to the evolving energy landscape. In our project, we embraced a Digital Twin (DT) strategy for crafting the PARS platform. A digital twin acts as a precise virtual counterpart of a physical system, built on historical data and continuously honed with real-time insights. This enables the high-fidelity DT to accurately mirror current system operations and forecast future scenarios. Consequently, the PARS platform becomes an ideal environment for testing and refining monitoring, control, power, and energy management algorithms designed to boost hybrid PV system performance. The defining feature of the PARS platform, distinguishing it from other advanced simulation tools, is its exceptional adaptability. This is achieved by employing actual network topologies and utilizing real-time field data for fine-tuning and calibration, ensuring a close emulation of real-world conditions. The project deliverables include: 1) High-fidelity IBR models and tools for real-time parameterization, utilizing real-time field measurements to refine IBR models for enhanced accuracy and performance; 2) Grid-forming and Grid-following capabilities to deliver resilience services, including blackstart, voltage and frequency support, cold-load pick-up, power reserves, and three-phase load balancing across grid-connected and microgrid settings; 3) Machine learning-based forecasting tools and methods for generating synthetic data and topologies, creating diverse and realistic simulation environments for evaluating varied operational scenarios; 4) Advanced microgrid power and energy management algorithms for optimizing the integration and operation of PV, storage, and demand response resources within both feeder and community scales. The power grid data sets are provided by four utility companies in North Carolina and the New York Power Administration. Acting as industry advisors, our industry partners communicated stakeholder needs and regulatory standards to the research teams, aiding technology transfer by incorporating the developed methodologies into their daily operations. This collaboration ensures that the PARS platform, functioning as a power system digital twin, enhances our understanding of IBR dynamic behaviors and enables the development and evaluation of IBR control functions that match or exceed the capabilities of conventional synchronous generators.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Real-Time Regional PV Spinning Reserve Estimator with AGC Look-Ahead Windows

Curtailed PV generation is a zero-marginal cost spinning reserve that can be used for a number of active power control services. However, unlike the traditional spinning reserve providers, i.e., fossil-fueled generators, who have well-defined operating characteristics, e.g., available headroom or potential high limit (PHL), PV plants have by nature variable and uncertain operating characteristics. To ensure the effective coordination between PV plants and the system operator during an active power control event, accurate forecasts of the PV PHL are essential. A novel reference-control grouping based scaling method has been proposed by NREL to estimate the PV PHL in real-time. This work further enhances the methodology by: 1) improving the model accuracy through machine learning; 2) considering look-ahead windows introduced by the computation and communication latencies; 3) applying the method to regional spinning reserve estimation. A significant performance improvement, over 99% of estimation error reduction, has been observed based on real-world data collected by CAISO and PV plant operators.

potential high limit↗

DOE OSTI2023

Real-Time Regional PV Spinning Reserve Estimator with AGC Look-Ahead Windows: Preprint

Curtailed PV generation is a zero-marginal cost spinning reserve that can be used for a number of active power control services. However, unlike the traditional spinning reserve providers, i.e., fossil-fueled generators, who have well-defined operating characteristics, e.g., available headroom or potential high limit (PHL), PV plants have by nature variable and uncertain operating characteristics. To ensure the effective coordination between PV plants and the system operator during an active power control event, accurate forecasts of the PV PHL are essential. A novel reference-control grouping based scaling method has been proposed by NREL to estimate the PV PHL in real-time. This work further enhances the methodology by: 1) improving the model accuracy through machine learning; 2) considering look-ahead windows introduced by the computation and communication latencies; 3) applying the method to regional spinning reserve estimation. A significant performance improvement, over 1.6% of estimation error reduction, has been observed based on real-world data collected by CAISO and PV plant operators.

potential high limit↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hardware-in-the-Loop Evaluation of an Advanced Distributed Energy Resource Management Algorithm

This paper presents the laboratory performance evaluation of voltage regulation under a new distributed energy resource management system (DERMS) algorithm via an advanced hardware-in-tbe-loop (HIL) platform. The HIL platform provides realistic testing in a laboratory environment, including the accurate modeling of a full-scale real-world distribution system from a utility partner, the DERMS software controller, and power hardware photovoltaic (PV) inverters. The new DERMS algorithm is developed based on online multiobjective optimization (OMOO) algorithms that perform fast dispatch of distributed solar PV simulated in a real-time digital simulator and real physical hardware devices. Experimental tests confirm the correct functioning of the HIL platform for evaluating controller algorithms and satisfactory voltage regulation performance of the developed OMOO algorithms.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hardware-in-the-Loop Evaluation of an Advanced Distributed Energy Resource Management Algorithm: Preprint

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Operation and Maintenance of PV Systems: Data Science, Analysis, and Standards

This effort improves the effectiveness and reduce uncertainty in O&M cost through four primary objectives/tasks: 1) institutionalize standards for reliability and availability reporting for large PV power plants; 2) bridge systemic O&M knowledge gaps around important topics affecting O&M; 3) characterize systemic failure modes and patterns and accelerate O&M experiential learning cycles using field data; and 4) establish a baseline understanding of UPVS O&M cost drivers. Key results of this effort include publication of IEC standards, published topical papers on O&M topics, training, and characterize field data for climate- and service-related patterns (additional details below). Integrating these results serves to reduce performance risk and facilitate improvement in the way solar projects are operated and maintained. Results are well received and two publications are among the most successful SETO publications at NREL ("Model of Operation and Maintenance Costs for Photovoltaic Systems with over 40,000 downloads and "Best Practices in Operation and Maintenance of PV Systems, 3rd Ed." with over 90,000 downloads).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Effects of Photovoltaic Module Materials and Design on Module Deformation Under Load

Static structural finite element models of an aluminum-framed crystalline silicon (c-Si) photovoltaic (PV) module and a glass-glass thin film PV module were constructed and validated against experimental measurements of deflection under uniform pressure loading. Parametric analyses using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) were performed to propagate simulation input uncertainties related to module material properties, dimensions, and manufacturing tolerances into expected uncertainties in simulated deflection predictions. This exercise verifies the applicability and validity of finite element modeling for predicting mechanical behavior of solar modules across architectures and enables computational models to be used with greater confidence in assessment of module mechanical stressors and design for reliability. Sensitivity analyses were also performed on the uncertainty quantification data sets using linear correlation coefficients to elucidate the key parameters influencing module deformation. This information has implications on which materials or parameters may be optimized to best increase module stiffness and reliability, whether the key optimization parameters change with module architecture or loading magnitudes, and whether parameters such as frame design and racking must be replicated in reduced-scale reliability studies to adequately capture full module mechanical behavior.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Faster-Than-Real-Time Framework for Reliability-Oriented Simulation of PV Inverters

Physics-of-Failure (PoF) based reliability assessment for photovoltaic (PV) inverters requires long-duration electrical and electrothermal stress histories, yet generating such stress histories with high-fidelity switching models over year long mission profiles is computationally prohibitive. Conventional methods either sacrifice modeling fidelity for speed or require runtimes that are impractical for design iteration and uncertainty studies. To address this bottleneck, this paper presents a High-Performance Computing (HPC) based simulation frame work for faster-than-real-time reliability-oriented simulation. The proposed framework integrates the Average-to-Switching (A2S) method with parallel computing techniques to accelerate switching-level waveform reconstruction. We further introduce optimization strategies, including cluster merging and sensitivity based mission profile screening, to reduce the computational burden. Evaluated using real-world mission profile inputs and a MATLAB/Simulink switching-model reference, the framework reduces the simulation time for a one-year mission from an intractable multi-year duration to approximately 7.3 minutes while maintaining low waveform error. This acceleration provides a practical reliability-oriented simulation engine that can be coupled with component-specific aging models for subsequent PV inverter PoF assessment.

High-performance Computing↗

DOE OSTI2021

Role of the social factors in success of solar photovoltaic reuse and recycle programmes

By 2050, the cumulative mass of end-of-life photovoltaic (PV) modules may reach 80 Mt globally. The impacts could be mitigated by module recycling, repair and reuse; however, previous studies of PV circularity omit the consideration of critical social factors. Here we used an agent-based model to integrate social aspects with techno-economic factors, which provides a more realistic assessment of the circularity potential for previously studied interventions that assesses additional interventions that cannot be analysed using techno-economic analysis alone. We also performed a global sensitivity analysis using a machine-learning metamodel. We show that to exclude social factors underestimates the effect of lower recycling prices on PV material circularity, which highlights the relevance of considering social factors in future studies. Interventions aimed at changing customer attitudes about used PV boost the reuse of modules, although used modules can only satisfy one-third of the US demand during 2020–2050, which suggests that reuse should be complemented by recycling.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

R&D to Ensure a Scientific Basis for Qualification Tests and Standards (Final Report)

Project return on investment in a photovoltaic (PV) system depends increasingly on maintaining high energy yields, and the system lifetime is a major factor in levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Thus, the rate of PV deployment and the success of these assets depends upon reliable long-term power generation. The overarching objective of this program is to improve photovoltaic (PV) module reliability via development of tests and standards. Where reliability problems or risk are discovered, we can design tests to ensure that these liabilities don't affect future generations of products. Customers can use these tests to understand which products are susceptible to certain degradation mechanisms, and manufacturers can use the tests to design unwanted characteristics out of their products. The work under this program identifies PV reliability needs, performs characterization that provides scientific understanding of targeted degradation mechanisms, and translates those data into practical and predictive test protocols and standards. Major accomplishments include: A model for polarization-type potential induced degradation (PID-p) was developed and validated against experimental data. NREL is currently leading a new edition of IEC 62804-1 for PID detection. PID-p can cause large losses in current and voltage for some module designs on cloudy days. Finite element modeling (FEM) and experiment was used to determine when cells crack in a module. It was shown that cells in landscape orientation are much more likely to crack than those on portrait orientation. Shortly thereafter, the first products with portrait-oriented cells were introduced. Studies of how to test for light and elevated temperature degradation (LeTID) culminated with the publication of IEC TS 63342. Software to predict the progression of LeTID was developed, validated, and made publicly available. Field validated tests and international standards for durability of PV module coatings abrasion, backsheets, and encapsulants were developed. Examples are IEC 62788-1-1, IEC 62788-2 ED2, IEC TS 62788-7-2, IEC 62788-7-3 ED1, IEC 63209-2. NREL led the development a high-temperature testing technical specification, and published guidelines that enable installers to determine whether higher-temperature testing is needed, simply based on location and mounting configuration. In a number of our case studies, variations in the bills of materials or workmanship have been associated with variations in reliability. These observations emphasize the importance of quality assurance to reliability. A framework for criticality (i.e. Pareto) analysis was developed and published. The framework helps us and other researchers determine what problems should be addressed for reliability research to have the biggest industry impact. NREL continues to participate actively in international standards development and stakeholder engagement activities, including organizing an annual PV Reliability Workshop. These activities are important for ensuring we address issues that are relevant and timely, and that we convey our results to those who may benefit.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hardware-in-the-Loop Testbed for Cyber-Physical Security of Photovoltaic Farms

In the last decades, modem grids with distributed energy resources, such as photovoltaic (PV) farms, are increasingly vulnerable to cyber-attacks that seriously affect the stability and performance of the power system. While cyber-physical security of smart grids is extensively studied, most of the existing work focuses on the grid level and neglects the modeling and features of device-level power electronics converters (PECs). Furthermore, establishing a high-fidelity simulation testbed that can simulate harmonic frequencies of the PV farm is in urgent need. In this paper, a high-fidelity and real-time hardware-in- the-loop testbed is built to simulate the harmonics of power electronics converters for cyber-physical security of PEC-enabled PV farms. Based on this testbed, the impact of typical cyber-attacks and physical faults on the PV converter can be analyzed, thus providing a foundation for cyber-attack detection, root cause diagnosis, and resilient control to mitigate the adverse effects of cyber-attacks.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning reduces soft costs for residential solar photovoltaics

Further deployment of rooftop solar photovoltaics (PV) hinges on the reduction of soft (non-hardware) costs—now larger and more resistant to reductions than hardware costs. The largest portion of these soft costs is the expenses solar companies incur to acquire new customers. In this study, we demonstrate the value of a shift from significance-based methodologies to prediction-oriented models to better identify PV adopters and reduce soft costs. We employ machine learning to predict PV adopters and non-adopters, and compare its prediction performance with logistic regression, the dominant significance-based method in technology adoption studies. Our results show that machine learning substantially enhances adoption prediction performance: The true positive rate of predicting adopters increased from 66 to 87%, and the true negative rate of predicting non-adopters increased from 75 to 88%. We attribute the enhanced performance to complex variable interactions and nonlinear effects incorporated by machine learning. With more accurate predictions, machine learning is able to reduce customer acquisition costs by 15% ($0.07/Watt) and identify new market opportunities for solar companies to expand and diversify their customer bases. Our research methods and findings provide broader implications for the adoption of similar clean energy technologies and related policy challenges such as market growth and energy inequality.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗