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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12

Mechanisms behind the Springtime North Pacific ENSO Teleconnection Bias in Climate Models

Previous studies have shown that models overestimate the strength of ENSO teleconnections to the North Pacific during springtime, but the underlying reasons for this bias remain unknown. Here, in this work, the relative contributions from basic-state and thermodynamic/dynamic forcing factors are disentangled through idealized experiments with the Community Earth System Model and a range of stationary wave modeling experiments. It is revealed that in CESM1 the diabatic heating biases over the tropical Indian Ocean and tropical central-western Pacific jointly favor a cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation bias to occur in the North Pacific during the springtime of El Niño (La Niña) events. On one hand, the difference in the modeled and observed climatological basic state does not lead to the bias formation directly, as the diabatic heating biases are the primary cause. On the other hand, the springtime basic state is conducive to a more vigorous stationary wave response to the biased diabatic heating than the wintertime state, and this explains why the teleconnection bias occurs during springtime but not in winter. An iterative bias-correction approach is then implemented in the atmospheric model component of CESM1 to verify the linkage between the tropical diabatic heating bias and the teleconnection bias. Moreover, this explanation is shown to be relevant in other models of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) as a strong relationship is found between biases in ENSO-related tropical central-western Pacific/Indian Ocean precipitation and North Pacific circulation across models in spring.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modes and Mechanisms of Pacific Decadal-Scale Variability

The modes of Pacific decadal-scale variability (PDV), traditionally defined as statistical patterns of variance, reflect to first order the ocean's integration (i.e., reddening) of atmospheric forcing that arises from both a shift and a change in strength of the climatological (time-mean) atmospheric circulation. While these patterns concisely describe PDV, they do not distinguish among the key dynamical processes driving the evolution of PDV anomalies, including atmospheric and ocean teleconnections and coupled feedbacks with similar spatial structures that operate on different timescales. In this review, we synthesize past analysis using an empirical dynamical model constructed from monthly ocean surface anomalies drawn from several reanalysis products, showing that the PDV modes of variance result from two fundamental low-frequency dynamical eigenmodes: the North Pacific–central Pacific (NP-CP) and Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension (KOE) modes. Both eigenmodes highlight how two-way tropical–extratropical teleconnection dynamics are the primary mechanisms energizing and synchronizing the basin-scale footprint of PDV. While the NP-CP mode captures interannual- to decadal-scale variability, the KOE mode is linked to the basin-scale expression of PDV on decadal to multidecadal timescales, including contributions from the South Pacific.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Revisiting the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature response to global warming

The relative roles of the oceanic and atmospheric processes in the pattern formation of the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) response to global warming is investigated using a set of climate model experiments embedded with a novel partial coupling technique. Here, the modeling results show that the SST response experiences a transition from a La Niña-like warming pattern at the initial stage to an El Niño-like warming pattern at the quasi-equilibrium stage. By decomposing anomalous equatorial Pacific SST into atmosphere-forced passive component and ocean dynamics-induced active component, it is found that the SST warming pattern at both stages is entirely induced by its active component. Specifically, the meridional and vertical ocean circulation changes play a dominant role in forming the La Niña-like SST warming pattern at the initial stage, and the zonal and meridional ocean circulation changes are responsible for the formation of the El Niño-like SST warming pattern at the quasi-equilibrium stage. In contrast, the passive SST at both stages is characterized by a zonally uniform warming along the equator, which can be explained by a balance between the cooling effect associated with mean upwelling and the warming effect due to surface passive heat flux change. In addition, this study finds that it is the slowdown of the Pacific subtropical cells during the transition period that controls the evolution of the equatorial SST warming pattern by changing the meridional and vertical ocean heat transports.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulating physical and biogeochemical dynamics of the Arctic Ocean [Slides]

Ocean physics (currents, mixing, air-sea transfer of heat and gases) and biogeochemistry (carbon and oxygen cycles, ecosystem dynamics, nutrient distributions) are tightly coupled. We used the DOE-developed Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) to simulate physical and biogeochemical dynamics of the global ocean, with an emphasis on the western North Pacific. In particular, we used the grid refinement capability of E3SM’s ocean component (LANL-developed MPASOcean) to quantify the effect of model resolution on the carbon and oxygen cycles using a pair of century-long simulations that differ only in the western North Pacific grid. Regional grid refinement has a noticeable impact on biogeochemistry. Distribution of important nutrients (such as nitrate) changes the amount of photosynthesis by phytoplankton, which in turn affects air-sea transfer of CO2 and the local carbon cycle.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Pacific decadal oscillation causes fewer near-equatorial cyclones in the North Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclones do not form easily near the equator but can intensify rapidly, leaving little time for preparation. We investigate the number of near-equatorial (originating between 5°N and 11°N) tropical cyclones over the north Indian Ocean during post-monsoon season (October to December) over the past 60 years. The study reveals a marked 43% decline in the number of such cyclones in recent decades (1981–2010) compared to earlier (1951–1980). Here, we show this decline in tropical cyclone frequency is primarily due to the weakened low-level vorticity modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and increased vertical wind shear. In the presence of low-latitude basin-wide warming and a favorable phase of the PDO, both the intensity and frequency of such cyclones are expected to increase. Such dramatic and unique changes in tropical cyclonic activity due to the interplay between natural variability and climate change call for appropriate planning and mitigation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Scale and Activity of Symmetric Instability Estimated from a Global Submesoscale-Permitting Ocean Model

Abstract Symmetric instability (SI) extracts kinetic energy from fronts in the surface mixed layer (SML), potentially affecting the SML structure and dynamics. Here, a global submesoscale-permitting ocean model named MITgcm LLC4320 simulation is used to examine the Stone linear prediction of the maximum SI scale to estimate grid spacings needed to begin resolving SI. Furthermore, potential effects of SI on the usable wind work are estimated roughly: this estimate of SI “activity” is useful for assessing if these modes should be resolved or parameterized. The maximum SI scale varies by latitude with median values from 568 to 23 m. Strong seasonality is observed in the SI scale and activity. The median scale in winter is 188 m globally, 2.5 times of that of summer (75 m). SI is more active in winter: 15% of the time compared with 6% in summer. The strongest SI activity is found in the western Pacific, western Atlantic, and Southern Oceans. The required grid spacings for a global model to begin resolving SI eddies in the SML are 24 m (50% of regions resolved) and 7.9 m (90%) in winter, decreasing to 9.4 m (50%) and 3.6 m (90%) in summer. It is also estimated that SI may reduce usable wind work by an upper bound of 0.83 mW m −2 globally, or 5% of the global magnitude. The sensitivity of these estimates to empirical thresholds is provided in the text.

Dong, Jihai↗

Seafloor Seismic Noise Patterns Across the Pacific Basin

Seismic hazard monitoring and global tomography efforts are improved by recording signals at a variety of distances and azimuths to maximize subsurface sampling. Although seismic networks provide good to excellent coverage on land, seafloor stations are still sparse. Inclusion of ocean-based data would greatly improve the global coverage of seismic networks, but the use of seafloor seismic data to complement land-based detection and characterization of events is complicated by the generally much higher ambient noise level in the ocean compared to that observed on land. This noise is driven primarily by sea surface waves and tides, but how seismic noise levels vary with location in the oceans is not well described. Here, in this work, we analyze the relationship between ocean surface wave height and seismic noise in the 0.4–4 Hz frequency band at ocean-bottom seismometer deployments across the Pacific basin. We find that a noise-to-responsiveness ratio (NRR)—the median noise level at a station divided by its sea surface wave height responsiveness—correlates negatively with detection success for large teleseismic earthquakes. Stations that are close to land, with relatively shallow ocean and low wind speed, often have lower NRR than open-ocean stations, but the connection between geographic location and earthquake detection success is imperfect.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Equatorial Origin of the Observed Tropical Pacific Quasi-Decadal Variability From ENSO Nonlinearity

Quasi-decadal (QD) climate variability is detected in the tropical Pacific based on the recent 70 years of observations. This QD variability is identified in equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the pattern of which resembles the Central Pacific (CP) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) but extends further meridionally to the northeastern subtropical Pacific. Whereas equatorial upper-ocean heat content and SSTs are in quadrature for ENSO, these two quantities are almost in phase on the QD timescale. Further analysis shows that nonlinear dynamical heating, primarily originating from strong El Niño events, tends to lead QD SSTs by a quarter of its dominant period (approximately 30 months) and shapes the dominant QD periodicity in observations. Here, our results suggest that the observed QD variability largely originates from ENSO nonlinearity and thus is fundamentally different from ENSO's oscillatory nature.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Synchronization of Alternative Models in a Supermodel and the Learning of Critical Behavior

“Supermodeling” climate by allowing different models to assimilate data from one another in run time has been shown to give results superior to those of any one model and superior to any weighted average of model outputs. The only free parameters, connection strengths between corresponding variables in each pair of models, are determined using some form of machine learning. It is demonstrated that supermodeling succeeds because near critical states, interscale interactions are important but unresolved processes cannot be effectively represented diagnostically in any single parameterization scheme. In two examples, a pair of toy quasigeostrophic (QG) channel models of the midlatitudes and a pair of ECHAM5 models of the tropical Pacific atmosphere with a common ocean, supermodels dynamically combine parameterization schemes so as to capture criticality, associated critical structures, and the supporting scale interactions. The QG supermodeling scheme extends a previous configuration in which two such models synchronize with intermodel connections only between medium-scale components of the flow; here the connections are trained against a third “real” model. Intermittent blocking patterns characterize the critical behavior thus obtained, even where such patterns are missing in the constituent models. In the ECHAM-based climate supermodel, the corresponding critical structure is the single ITCZ pattern, a pattern that occurs in neither of the constituent models. In conclusion, for supermodels of both types, power spectra indicate enhanced interscale interactions in frequency or energy ranges of physical interest, in agreement with observed data, and supporting a generalized form of the self-organized criticality hypothesis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Asymmetric response of cross-equatorial ocean heat transport to latitudinal thermal forcing in CESM

The partitioning of cross-equatorial heat transport between the atmosphere and the ocean is investigated through a series of fully coupled experiments, where external radiative forcing is applied over different latitudinal bands. The modeling results reveal a first-order collaborative relationship between the ocean and the atmosphere. In response to low-latitude perturbations, the cross-equatorial heat transport is realized mainly through the atmosphere, as the total ocean heat transport (OHT) is largely offsets by its horizontal gyre component. However, as perturbations shift to higher latitudes in both hemispheres, the OHT responses become more important. Here, we also find a significant interhemispheric asymmetry in the cross-equatorial heat transport, with the OHT contribution being more important in the Southern Hemisphere. This asymmetry is mainly attributed to different responses in the changes of the ocean circulation. When the radiative forcing is placed over the Southern Ocean, a buoyancy-driven clockwise cell is generated that extends from the Southern Ocean into the tropics in both the Indo-Pacific and Atlantic basins, effectively transporting energy to the northern hemisphere. Conversely, when the radiative forcing is placed over the northern high latitudes, the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is responsible for the anomalous southward heat transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Role of Atmospheric Noise in Decadal SST Variability

Abstract A substantial role for atmospheric noise in simulations of decadal internal variability of SST is demonstrated by a comparison of a multicentury climate model control and a corresponding interactive ensemble (IE) simulation. The IE is designed to reduce atmospheric noise in the heat flux, wind stress, and freshwater flux at the air–sea interface. This comparison suggests that nearly all SST variability on decadal time scales is forced by internal atmospheric variability. The results are examined to determine the relative roles of atmospheric surface heat flux noise and ocean dynamics in the decadal volume-averaged heat budget of the upper ocean. The regional heat budgets in two regions, the South Pacific and the midlatitude North Atlantic, show the net atmospheric surface heat flux to be approximately in equilibrium with the ocean dynamics forcing. The IE and control results are used in the equilibrium heat budget approximation to infer the atmospheric heat flux response to SST, as well as the time series of the control atmospheric noise surface heat flux and ocean dynamics forcings for several regions. The South Pacific region SST is found to be primarily forced by the atmospheric noise surface heat flux and the North Atlantic region SST is forced by the ocean dynamics. Similar strengths for the atmospheric heat flux noise and ocean dynamics forcing, with an interdecadal atmospheric heat flux noise time scale and a centennial ocean dynamics time scale, are found for an Atlantic multidecadal variability region SST.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Pacific Coast High Frequency Radar 6 km

High frequency (HF) radar systems measure the speed and direction of ocean surface currents in near real time provided by Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS). The HFR data along the Pacific Coast are at a spatial resolution of 6 km. These data are collected as part of an observational database developed to support the floating offshore wind energy research within the ORACLE project funded by DOE WETO.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Pacific Coast High-Frequency Radar 2 km

High frequency (HF) radar systems measure the speed and direction of ocean surface currents in near real time provided by Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS). The HFR data along the Pacific Coast are at a spatial resolution of 2 km. These data are collected as part of an observational database developed to support the floating offshore wind energy research within the ORACLE project funded by DOE WETO.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Are 100 Ensemble Members Enough to Capture the Remote Atmospheric Response to +2°C Arctic Sea Ice Loss?

This study presents results from the Polar Amplification Multimodel Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) single-year time-slice experiments that aim to isolate the atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss at global warming levels of +2°C. Using two general circulation models (GCMs), the ensemble size is increased up to 300 ensemble members, beyond the recommended 100 members. After partitioning the response in groups of 100 ensemble members, the reproducibility of the results is evaluated, with a focus on the response of the midlatitude jet streams in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Both atmosphere-only and coupled ocean–atmosphere PAMIP experiments are analyzed. Substantial differences in the midlatitude response are found among the different experiment subsets, suggesting that 100-member ensembles are still significantly influenced by internal variability, which can mislead conclusions. Despite an overall stronger response, the coupled ocean–atmosphere runs exhibit greater spread due to additional ENSO-related internal variability when the ocean is interactive. The lack of consistency in the response is true for anomalies that are statistically significant according to Student’s t and false discovery rate tests. This is problematic for the multimodel assessment of the response, as some of the spread may be attributed to different model sensitivities whereas it is due to internal variability. Here, we propose a method to overcome this consistency issue that allows for more robust conclusions when only 100 ensemble members are used.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Data Library of Liquid Clouds Modelled With a Large Eddy Simulation Framework

We describe a library of atmospheric large eddy simulations (LES) of liquid-phase boundary layer clouds constructed to enable aerosol–cloud–turbulence interaction studies, support parameterization evaluation and development, and provide training data for machine learning applications. The simulations use a modern LES framework designed for high numerical accuracy, coupled to a detailed spectral bin microphysical scheme. Case studies are configured to represent observed conditions in four key global cloud regions—the Northeastern Atlantic, Northeastern Pacific, Continental United States and Southern Ocean—following a semi-idealised approach. The library also includes aerosol concentration halving and doubling experiments to expose the sensitivities of the case studies to aerosol perturbations. Simulation results are compared to observations on a case-by-case basis, then the library's coverage is evaluated in terms of spreads in meteorological factors and atmospheric boundary layer attributes.

aerosol↗

Forecasting Remote Atmospheric Responses to Decadal Kuroshio Stability Transitions

Based on observational estimates and global ocean eddy-resolving coupled retrospective initialized predictions, we show that Kuroshio Extension variability affects rainfall variability along the west coast of North America. We show that the teleconnection between the current undulations and downstream rainfall can lead to improved subseasonal to seasonal predictions of precipitation over California, and we demonstrate that capturing these teleconnections requires coupled systems with sufficient ocean resolution (i.e., eddy-resolving), especially over time scales longer than one season. The improved forecast skill is diagnosed in terms of 35 years of retrospective initialized ensemble forecasts with an ocean eddy-resolving and an ocean eddy-parameterized coupled model. Not only does the ocean eddy-resolving model show sensitivity to Kuroshio Extension variability in terms of western North America precipitation, but the ocean eddy-resolving forecasts also show improved forecast skill compared to the ocean eddy-parameterized model. Additionally, the ocean eddy-parameterized coupled model shows no sensitivity to Kuroshio Extension variability. We also find near-decadal variability associated with a progression of a lower-tropospheric height dipole around the North Pacific and how these height anomalies lead to wind-driven Rossby waves that affect the eddy activity in the Kuroshio Extension with a time lag on the order of four years. This decadal-scale variability (~10 years) opens the possibility of multiyear predictability of western North American rainfall.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Improving tropical cyclone rapid intensification forecasts with satellite measurements of sea surface salinity and calibrated machine learning

Forecasting rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TC) is a mission known for large errors. One under-researched factor that affects TC intensification is salinity, which is important for density stratification in certain ocean regions and can affect the surface enthalpy flux under a strengthening hurricane. To investigate the impact and efficacy of using salinity information in state-of-the-art forecasting, we use a statistical model consisting of a variety of machine learning (ML) methods. For salinity data, we use satellite measurements of pre-storm sea surface salinity (SSS) as a proxy for the salinity stratification. We train and test the model on various ocean basins, including the Atlantic, eastern North Pacific and western North Pacific. A calibrator is trained on top of the ML models to correct and enhance probability forecasts. The calibrator significantly improves probability forecasts relative to recent works. The ML model performance is improved with the addition of SSS in the Eastern North Pacific, western North Pacific, and the Caribbean subregion of the North Atlantic, and the overall model performance is better than previous studies. SSS decreases model skill for a model trained on the full Atlantic basin. In the Indian Ocean, SSS is also notably correlated with RI occurrence, but the TC samples are not sufficient to train ML models.

hurricane↗

Assessing the sequestration time scales of some ocean-based carbon dioxide reduction strategies

Abstract Ocean-based carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) removal (CDR) strategies are an important part of the portfolio of approaches needed to achieve negative greenhouse gas emissions. Many ocean-based CDR strategies rely on injecting CO 2 or organic carbon (that will eventually become CO 2 ) into the ocean interior, or enhancing the ocean’s biological pump. These approaches will not result in permanent sequestration, because ocean currents will eventually return the injected CO 2 back to the surface, where it will be brought into equilibrium with the atmosphere. Here, a model of steady state global ocean circulation and mixing is used to assess the time scales over which CO 2 injected in the ocean interior remains sequestered from the atmosphere. There will be a distribution of sequestration times for any single discharge location due to the infinite number of pathways connecting a location at depth with the sea surface. The resulting probability distribution is highly skewed with a long tail of very long transit times, making mean sequestration times much longer than typical time scales. Deeper discharge locations will sequester purposefully injected CO 2 much longer than shallower ones and median sequestration times are typically decades to centuries, and approach 1000 years in the deep North Pacific. Large differences in sequestration times occur both within and between the major ocean basins, with the Pacific and Indian basins generally having longer sequestration times than the Atlantic and Southern Oceans. Assessments made over a 50 year time horizon illustrates that most of the injected carbon will be retained for injection depths greater than 1000 m, with several geographic exceptions such as the Western North Atlantic. Ocean CDR strategies that increase upper ocean ecosystem productivity with the goal of exporting more carbon to depth will have mainly a short-term influence on atmospheric CO 2 levels because ∼70% will be transported back to the surface ocean within 50 years. The results presented here will help plan appropriate ocean CDR strategies that can help limit climate damage caused by fossil fuel CO 2 emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗