SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Parameter estimation using data”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 217 records · Page 12

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2016

PEES (Parameter Estimator for Engineering Systems) [SWR-16-38]

This software model generates vehicle parameter sets for downstream modeling applications using real-world data. Value to users is provided through improvements to modeling activities as a result of decreases in time taken during model development and validation. Currently configured for transportation modeling activities, the software provides initial estimates for multiple fundamental vehicle parameters including mass, coefficient of drag, and tire rolling resistance using real-world drive and duty cycle information as inputs.

Miller, Eric↗

DOE OSTI2014

EXONEST: Bayesian model selection applied to the detection and characterization of exoplanets via photometric variations

EXONEST is an algorithm dedicated to detecting and characterizing the photometric signatures of exoplanets, which include reflection and thermal emission, Doppler boosting, and ellipsoidal variations. Using Bayesian inference, we can test between competing models that describe the data as well as estimate model parameters. We demonstrate this approach by testing circular versus eccentric planetary orbital models, as well as testing for the presence or absence of four photometric effects. In addition to using Bayesian model selection, a unique aspect of EXONEST is the potential capability to distinguish between reflective and thermal contributions to the light curve. A case study is presented using Kepler data recorded from the transiting planet KOI-13b. By considering only the nontransiting portions of the light curve, we demonstrate that it is possible to estimate the photometrically relevant model parameters of KOI-13b. Furthermore, Bayesian model testing confirms that the orbit of KOI-13b has a detectable eccentricity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

The Mechanisms of Natural Variability and its Interaction with Anthropogenic Climate Change Final Report

The project had two main components. The first concerns estimating the climate sensitivity in the presence of forcing uncertainty and natural variability. Climate sensitivity is the increase in the average surface temperature for a given increase in greenhouse gases, for example a doubling of carbon dioxide. We have provided new, probabilistic estimates of climate sensitivity using a simple climate model an the observed warming in the 20th century, in conjunction with ideas in data assimilation and parameter estimation developed in the engineering community. The estimates combine the uncertainty in the anthropogenic aerosols with the uncertainty arising because of natural variability. The second component concerns how the atmospheric circulation itself might change with anthropogenic global warming. We have shown that GCMs robustly predict an increase in the length scale of eddies, and we have also explored the dynamical mechanisms whereby there might be a shift in the latitude of the jet stream associated with anthropogenic warming. Such shifts in the jet might cause large changes in regional climate, potentially larger than the globally-averaged signal itself. We have also shown that the tropopause robustly increases in height with global warming, and that the Hadley Cell expands, and that the expansion of the Hadley Cell is correlated with the polewards movement of the mid-latitude jet.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Iterative Importance Sampling Algorithms for Parameter Estimation

In parameter estimation problems one computes a posterior distribution over uncertain parameters defined jointly by a prior distribution, a model, and noisy data. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is often used for the numerical solution of such problems. An alternative to MCMC is importance sampling, which can exhibit near perfect scaling with the number of cores on high performance computing systems because samples are drawn independently. However, finding a suitable proposal distribution is a challenging task. Several sampling algorithms have been proposed over the past years that take an iterative approach to constructing a proposal distribution. We investigate the applicability of such algorithms by applying them to two realistic and challenging test problems, one in subsurface flow, and one in combustion modeling. More specifically, we implement importance sampling algorithms that iterate over the mean and covariance matrix of Gaussian or multivariate t-proposal distributions. Our implementation leverages massively parallel computers, and we present strategies to initialize the iterations using “coarse” MCMC runs or Gaussian mixture models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2019

First M87 Event Horizon Telescope Results. VI. The Shadow and Mass of the Central Black Hole

We present measurements of the properties of the central radio source in M87 using Event Horizon Telescope data obtained during the 2017 campaign. We develop and fit geometric crescent models (asymmetric rings with interior brightness depressions) using two independent sampling algorithms that consider distinct representations of the visibility data. We show that the crescent family of models is statistically preferred over other comparably complex geometric models that we explore. We calibrate the geometric model parameters using general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) models of the emission region and estimate physical properties of the source. We further fit images generated from GRMHD models directly to the data. We compare the derived emission region and black hole parameters from these analyses with those recovered from reconstructed images. There is a remarkable consistency among all methods and data sets. We find that >50% of the total flux at arcsecond scales comes from near the horizon, and that the emission is dramatically suppressed interior to this region by a factor >10, providing direct evidence of the predicted shadow of a black hole. Across all methods, we measure a crescent diameter of 42 ± 3 μas and constrain its fractional width to be <0.5. Associating the crescent feature with the emission surrounding the black hole shadow, we infer an angular gravitational radius of GM/Dc2 = 3.8 ± 0.4 μas. Folding in a distance measurement of ${16.8}_{-0.7}^{+0.8}\,\mathrm{Mpc}$ gives a black hole mass of $M=6.5\pm 0.2{| }_{\mathrm{stat}}\pm 0.7{| }_{\mathrm{sys}}\times {10}^{9}\hspace{2pt}{M}_{\odot }$. This measurement from lensed emission near the event horizon is consistent with the presence of a central Kerr black hole, as predicted by the general theory of relativity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Investigation of the influence of geomechanical and hydrogeological properties on surface uplift at In Salah [Systematic investigation of the influence of geomechanical and hydrogeological properties on surface uplift at In Salah]

Coupled reservoir and geomechanical simulations are significantly important to understand the long-term behavior of geologic carbon storage (GCS) systems. In this study, we performed coupled fluid flow and geomechanical modeling of CO 2 storage using available field data to (1) validate our existing numerical model and (2) perform parameter estimation via inverse modeling to identify the impact of key geomechanical (Young's modulus and Biot's coefficient) and hydrogeological (permeability and anisotropy ratio) properties on surface uplift and the pore pressure buildup at In Salah in Algeria. Furthermore, two sets of surface uplift data featuring low and high uplifts above two injection wells and the maximum change in the pore pressure due to CO 2 injection were used to constrain the inverse model.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

Resonant-frequency discharge in a multi-cell radio frequency cavity

We are reporting experimental results on a microwave discharge operating at resonant frequency in a multi-cell radio frequency (RF) accelerator cavity. Although the discharge operated at room temperature, the setup was constructed so that it could be used for plasma generation and processing in fully assembled active superconducting radio-frequency cryo-module. This discharge offers a mechanism for removal of a variety of contaminants, organic or oxide layers, and residual particulates from the interior surface of RF cavities through the interaction of plasma-generated radicals with the cavity walls. We describe resonant RF breakdown conditions and address the issues related to resonant detuning due to sustained multi-cell cavity plasma. We have determined breakdown conditions in the cavity, which was acting as a plasma vessel with distorted cylindrical geometry. We discuss the spectroscopic data taken during plasma removal of contaminants and use them to evaluate plasma parameters, characterize the process, and estimate the volatile contaminant product removal.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Neural simulation-based inference of the neutron star equation of state directly from telescope spectra

Neutron stars provide a unique opportunity to study strongly interacting matter under extreme density conditions. The intricacies of matter inside neutron stars and their equation of state are not directly visible, but determine bulk properties, such as mass and radius, which affect the star's thermal X-ray emissions. However, the telescope spectra of these emissions are also affected by the stellar distance, hydrogen column, and effective surface temperature, which are not always well-constrained. Uncertainties on these nuisance parameters must be accounted for when making a robust estimation of the equation of state. In this study, we develop a novel methodology that, for the first time, can infer the full posterior distribution of both the equation of state and nuisance parameters directly from telescope observations. This method relies on the use of neural likelihood estimation, in which normalizing flows use samples of simulated telescope data to learn the likelihood of the neutron star spectra as a function of these parameters, coupled with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods to efficiently sample from the corresponding posterior distribution. Our approach surpasses the accuracy of previous methods, improves the interpretability of the results by providing access to the full posterior distribution, and naturally scales to a growing number of neutron star observations expected in the coming years.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Quantifying the Role of Snowmelt in Stream Discharge in an Alaskan Watershed: An Analysis Using a Spatially Distributed Surface Hydrology Model

Here, this study uses a spatially distributed surface hydrology model to investigate the role of snowmelt in stream discharge for the Tanana Flats Basin in interior Alaska. The Parameter ESTimation code is used to calibrate the model with observed stream discharge data. The model was further evaluated using remote sensing-based snow cover product and in situ snowpack water equivalent (SWE) observations. A 36 year (1980–2015) U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System simulation shows (1) the monthly stream discharge from the Tanana Flats Basin in April decreased by 44%; (2) snow cover area at high altitudes (above 2000 m) decreased in summer, both SWE and snowmelt also decreased significantly, especially in spring; (3) the timings of snowmelt onset and ending shifted by 2 (earlier) and 5 (later) days per decade, respectively; and (4) snowmelt accounts for 40% of the annual stream discharge. This study provides a quantitative tool to investigating hydrological systems considering the impacts of snow dynamics in cold regions. Additionally, this study suggests that future warming will further decrease snow coverage, advance snow melting time, and hereafter change the stream discharge dynamics in the Arctic.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Optimization under uncertainty of a hybrid waste tire and natural gas feedstock flexible polygeneration system using a decomposition algorithm

Market uncertainties motivate the development of flexible polygeneration systems that are able to adjust operating conditions to favor production of the most profitable product portfolio. However, this operational flexibility comes at the cost of higher capital expenditure. A scenario-based two-stage stochastic nonconvex Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Programming (MINLP) approach lends itself naturally to optimizing these trade-offs. This work studies the optimal design and operation under uncertainty of a hybrid feedstock flexible polygeneration system producing electricity, methanol, dimethyl ether, olefins or liquefied (synthetic) natural gas. A recently developed C++ based software framework (named GOSSIP) is used for modeling the optimization problem as well as its efficient solution using the Nonconvex Generalized Benders Decomposition (NGBD) algorithm. Two different cases are studied: The first uses estimates of the means and variances of the uncertain parameters from historical data, whereas the second assesses the impact of increased uncertain parameter volatility. The value of implementing flexible designs characterized by the value of the stochastic solution (VSS) is in the range of 260–405 M$ for a scale of approximately 893 MW of thermal input. Increased price volatility around the same mean results in higher expected net present value and VSS as operational flexibility allows for asymmetric exploitation of price peaks.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Automatic Generation of Chemical Mechanisms for Electrochemical Systems: Solid Electrolyte Interphase Formation in Lithium Batteries

Electrolytes in many lithium ion batteries decompose at the low potentials near the anode. The decomposition products form a layer termed the solid electrolyte interphase (SEI). The composition and growth of the SEI layer significantly affect both the capacity fade and safety of lithium ion batteries. However, SEI formation and growth kinetics are not well understood. In this work, we present an extension of the Reaction Mechanism Generator (RMG) software to automatically generate mechanisms for SEI formation. We extend RMG’s solvation correction framework to account for kinetic solvent effects and demonstrate the accuracy of our technique. We calculate thermochemical parameters for 252 species and rate coefficients for 69 reactions, most with associated solvation corrections. This and additional quantum chemistry data are used to extend RMG’s thermodynamic group additivity and solute parameter estimation schemes to handle lithiated species and add 14 new reaction families to RMG. RMG is additionally extended to simulate electrocatalytic systems. Lastly, we demonstrate RMG on the decomposition of acetonitrile and ethylene carbonate near a battery anode. Furthermore, while this framework does not yet resolve individual ions, as appropriate thermochemistry estimators are not available, and thus, cannot yet resolve more complex electrochemical pathways, RMG is able to generate reasonable pathways for SEI formation that match literature pathways and products. In particular, RMG identifies a new important reaction pathway that is not present in literature.

Chemical reactions↗

DOE OSTI2017

Resonant inelastic X-ray scattering study of spin-wave excitations in the cuprate parent compound Ca 2 CuO 2 Cl 2

By means of resonant inelastic x-ray scattering at the Cu L 3 edge, we measured the spin wave dispersion along <100> and <110> in the undoped cuprate Ca 2 CuO 2 Cl 2 . The data yields a reliable estimate of the superexchange parameter J = 135 ± 4 meV using a classical spin-1/2 2D Heisenberg model with nearest-neighbor interactions and including quantum fluctuations. Including further exchange interactions increases the estimate to J = 141 meV. The 40 meV dispersion between the magnetic Brillouin zone boundary points (1/2, 0) and (1/4, 1/4) indicates that next-nearest neighbor interactions in this compound are intermediate between the values found in La 2 CuO 4 and Sr 2 CuO 2 Cl 2 . Here by owing to the low- Z elements composing Ca 2 CuOCl 2 , the present results may enable a reliable comparison with the predictions of quantum many-body calculations, which would improve our understanding of the role of magnetic excitations and of electronic correlations in cuprates.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantification of early nonpharmaceutical interventions aimed at slowing transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in the Navajo Nation and surrounding states (Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah)

During an early period of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the Navajo Nation, much like New York City, experienced a relatively high rate of disease transmission. Yet, between January and October 2020, it experienced only a single period of growth in new COVID-19 cases, which ended when cases peaked in May 2020. The daily number of new cases slowly decayed in the summer of 2020 until late September 2020. In contrast, the surrounding states of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah all experienced at least two periods of growth in the same time frame, with second surges beginning in late May to early June. Here, we investigated these differences in disease transmission dynamics with the objective of quantifying the contributions of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) (e.g., behaviors that limit disease transmission). We considered a compartmental model accounting for distinct periods of NPIs to analyze the epidemic in each of the five regions. We used Bayesian inference to estimate region-specific model parameters from regional surveillance data (daily reports of new COVID-19 cases) and to quantify uncertainty in parameter estimates and model predictions. Our results suggest that NPIs in the Navajo Nation were sustained over the period of interest, whereas in the surrounding states, NPIs were relaxed, which allowed for subsequent surges in cases. Our region-specific model parameterizations allow us to quantify the impacts of NPIs on disease incidence in the regions of interest.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fast and Flexible Inference Framework for Continuum Reverberation Mapping Using Simulation-based Inference with Deep Learning

Continuum reverberation mapping (CRM) of active galactic nuclei (AGN) monitors multiwavelength variability signatures to constrain accretion disk structure and supermassive black hole (SMBH) properties. The upcoming Vera Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time will survey tens of millions of AGN over the next decade, with thousands of AGN monitored with almost daily cadence in the deep drilling fields. However, existing CRM methodologies often require long computation time and are not designed to handle such large amounts of data. In this paper, we present a fast and flexible inference framework for CRM using simulation-based inference (SBI) with deep learning to estimate SMBH properties from AGN light curves. We use a long short-term memory summary network to reduce the high dimensionality of the light curve data and then use a neural density estimator to estimate the posterior of SMBH parameters. Using simulated light curves, we find SBI can produce more accurate SMBH parameter estimation with 10 3 –10 5 times speed up in inference efficiency compared to traditional methods. The SBI framework is particularly suitable for wide-field CRM surveys as the light curves will have identical observing patterns, which can be incorporated into the SBI simulation. We explore the performance of our SBI model on light curves with irregular-sampled, realistic observing cadence and alternative variability characteristics to demonstrate the flexibility and limitation of the SBI framework.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Steam Condensation Scaled Experiment in the Presence of Non-condensable Gas for Reactor Containment Passive Safety Analysis

This study presents scaled experiments using steam condensation with non-condensable gas (NCG)—helium, simulating hydrogen—as these experiments are pivotal for water-cooled reactor passive containment cooling system (PCCS) design and analysis. Research into PCCSs for small modular reactors (SMRs) is especially important in light of SMR system design; however, studies in the literature reflect limitations due to test geometry and operational condition variations, without considering SMR prototypic design. To address these challenges, a scaled test facility was developed to accurately replicate SMR PCCSs. This facility includes vertical down-flow condensing test sections with 1-, 2-, and 4-in.-diameter condensing tubes, accompanied by annular water cooling. Experiments were conducted using both superheated and saturated steam, with steam mass flow rates varying from 55 to 66 kg/hr., in the presence of helium as the NCG mass flow rate ranges from 1.8 to 22 kg/hr. Test data were collected on (a) the axial temperatures of the annular cooling water; (b) the outer wall temperature of the condensers; and (c) the mass flow rate, temperature, and pressure at the test section inlets and outlets. These primary test data were used in conjunction with a standard data reduction methodology to estimate essential thermal parameters such as heat fluxes, heat transfer coefficients, and condensation rates. The effects of NCGs on steam condensation within the geometry of the scaled test sections were then presented in regard to various testing conditions.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Presentation: Steam Condensation Scaled Experiment in the Presence of Non-condensable Gas for Reactor Containment Passive Safety Analysis

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Tightly-coupled camera/LiDAR integration for point cloud generation from GNSS/INS-assisted UAV mapping systems

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) equipped with integrated global navigation satellite systems/inertial navigation systems (GNSS/INS) together with cameras and/or LiDAR sensors are being widely used for topographic mapping in a variety of applications such as precision agriculture, coastal monitoring, and archaeological documentation. Integration of image-based and LiDAR point clouds can provide a comprehensive 3D model of the area of interest. For such integration, ensuring a good alignment between data from the different sources is critical. Although many works have been conducted on this topic, there is still a need for a rigorous integration approach that minimizes the discrepancy between camera and LiDAR data caused by inaccurate system calibration parameters and/or trajectory artifacts. This study proposes an automated tightly-coupled camera/LiDAR integration workflow for GNSS/INS-assisted UAV systems. The proposed strategy is conducted in three main steps. First, an image-based point cloud is generated using a LiDAR/GNSS/INS-assisted structure from motion (SfM) strategy. Then, feature correspondences between image-based and LiDAR point clouds are automatically identified. Finally, an integrated-bundle adjustment procedure including image points, LiDAR raw measurements, and GNSS/INS information is conducted to minimize the discrepancy between point clouds from different sensors while estimating system calibration parameters and refining the trajectory information. The proposed SfM strategy and integration framework are evaluated using five datasets. The SfM results show that using LiDAR data can facilitate feature matching and further increase the number of reconstructed 3D points. The experimental results also illustrate that the developed automated camera/LiDAR integration strategy is capable of accurately estimating system calibration parameters to achieve good alignment among camera/LiDAR data from single/multiple systems. Finally, an absolute accuracy in the range of 3–5 cm is achieved for the image/LiDAR point clouds after the integration process.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Synthesis of observed and simulated rain microphysics to inform a new Bayesian statistical framework for microphysical parameterization in climate models (Final Scientific Report)

This project aimed to investigate a new approach to bulk microphysics schemes. We identified the need to move beyond the fixed structural assumptions and approximation of existing schemes. For example, most schemes assume some functional form for the rain drop size distribution (e.g. a gamma or exponential distribution). Most schemes then evolve some number of statistical moments of that distribution via various processes, such as evaporation, sedimentation, collision-coalescence, and collisional breakup. These microphysical processes, in turn, are typically some fixed functional form derived from either some other (more detailed) model, or using some single-particle rates that are then integrated over the size distribution. While these process rate functions may have some free parameters to adjust, in other cases doing so is impossible (e.g. when the process rates are analytical or piecewise solutions to some target function). Our goal was to build and test a scheme that assumed no size distribution form, and used a series of power laws as the basis for the process rates. Moments of the size distribution would be predicted, but no underlying size distribution would be specified. Any number or choice of size distribution moments could be used, and any number of power laws could be employed to model the process rates. Thus, our approach is flexible, and can seamlessly scale across levels of complexity, as demanded by the data. Bayesian inference then would provide the formalism to estimate the model parameters and structure, allowing for robust uncertainty quantification. We proposed testing this framework in idealized simulations using bin microphysical schemes as a data source. We also proposed using real data to inform our microphysics scheme, and also that we would integrate our scheme into WRF.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗