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NASA NTRS2013

Megadroughts in Southwestern North America in ECHO-G Millennial Simulations and Their Comparison to Proxy Drought Reconstructions

Simulated hydroclimate variability in millennium-length forced transient and control simulations from the ECHAM and the global Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation (ECHO-G) coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) is analyzed and compared to 1000 years of reconstructed Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) variability from the North American Drought Atlas (NADA). The ability of the model to simulate megadroughts in the North American southwest is evaluated. (NASW: 25deg42.5degN, 125deg-105degW). Megadroughts in the ECHO-G AOGCM are found to be similar in duration and magnitude to those estimated from the NADA. The droughts in the forced simulation are not, however, temporally synchronous with those in the paleoclimate record, nor are there significant differences between the drought features simulated in the forced and control runs. These results indicate that model-simulated megadroughts can result from internal variability of the modeled climate system rather than as a response to changes in exogenous forcings. Although the ECHO-G AOGCM is capable of simulating megadroughts through persistent La Nina-like conditions in the tropical Pacific, other mechanisms can produce similarly extreme NASW moisture anomalies in the model. In particular, the lack of low-frequency coherence between NASW soil moisture and simulated modes of climate variability like the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Pacific decadal oscillation, and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation during identified drought periods suggests that stochastic atmospheric variability can contribute significantly to the occurrence of simulated megadroughts in the NASW. These findings indicate that either an expanded paradigm is needed to understand multidecadal hydroclimate variability in the NASW or AOGCMs may incorrectly simulate the strength and/or dynamics of the connection between NASW hydroclimate variability and the tropical Pacific.

variability↗

NASA NTRS1982

Remote sensing evidence for regolith water vapor sources on Mars

McCord et al. (1977) have presented earth-based photometric imaging data of an event associated with the 1973 dust storm on Mars. The initial dust cloud in Solis Lacus and two regions to the north and south appeared anomalously bright at blue wavelengths. Water frosts, hazes, and/or clouds were identified, and it was suggested that the water responsible for these findings may have originated from Solis Lacus. More recently, a more intensive review of the observational record of Mars was undertaken. Earth-based telescope observations and data from the Mariner and Viking missions have revealed that Solis Lacus has been a center of repeated activity. Persistent activity in the vicinity of Noachis-Hellespontus and in the border regions of Syrtis Major was also discovered. A review of the observations is provided and possible interpretations are discussed. The obtained results appear to support the original proposal that Solis Lacus may be a source of water vapor. Noachis-Hellespontus seems to be a similar vapor source

Huguenin, R. L.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effect of Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris Impact on Modal Response of Persistent Assets

Protecting the infrastructure and payload components of persistent assets (PAs) from damage caused by MicroMeteoroid and/or Orbital Debris (MMOD) impacts is a significant design consideration. The impact resistance to MMOD will need to be provided by the robustness of the structural configuration such that the asset does not suffer loss of function or catastrophic failure. Finite element modelling (FEM) can be used to investigate the effects of MMOD impact on the overall structural behavior of the PA. The models are being used here to investigate the structural response to ‘missing’ truss members, and parametric studies are being performed to identify the worst-case scenario of an impact catastrophically damaging a truss element. These models will be used to determine which truss members are the most critical to the structural performance, and thus, which may require a higher degree of protection or robustness to ensure they can withstand an MMOD impact without causing catastrophic effects on the entire structure. Initial results have been generated indicating a reduction in the global frequency due to missing truss members as a result of MMOD impact.

in-space assembly (ISA)↗

NASA NTRS1974

Dynamics of suspended sediment plumes in Lake Ontario

The author has identified the following significant results. Although turbidity plumes in Lake Ontario are usually not visible during the winter, meteorologic and hydrologic events may combine to ensure their detection. The clearly defined Niagara River plume of January 25, 1974, was the result of turbid water entering the river at its source near the eastern end of Lake Erie. A persistent southwest wind mild temperature resulted in a pile-up of ice free but turbid water at the source of the Niagara River where the highly colored water entered the river. Upon discharge into Lake Ontario, the Niagara River water appears several shades lighter in tone than the ambient lake water. On February 12, 1974, eastward moving ice floes along the Ontario shoreline were forced to move around the hydraulic barrier created by the Niagara River jet. As a result the Niagara River plume was clearly portrayed by a halo-like band of slush ice borne by wind-driven nearshore currents.

Pluhowski, E. J.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Exceptional Warmth in the Northern Hemisphere during January through March of 2020: The Roles of Unforced and Forced Modes of Atmospheric Variability

Much of northern Eurasia experienced record high temperatures during the first three months of 2020, and the eastern United States experienced a significant heat wave during March. In this study, we show that the above episodes of extraordinary warmth reflect to a large extent the unusual persistence and large amplitude of three well-known modes of atmospheric variability: the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern. We employ a “replay” approach in which simulations with the NASA GEOS AGCM are constrained to remain close to MERRA-2 over specified regions of the globe in order to identify the underlying forcings and regions that acted to maintain these modes well beyond their typical submonthly time scales. We show that an extreme positive AO played a major role in the surface warming over Eurasia, with forcing from the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean regions acting to maintain its positive phase. Forcing from the tropical Indian Ocean and Atlantic regions produced positive NAO-like responses, contributing to the warming over eastern North America and Europe. The strong heat wave that developed over eastern North America during March was primarily associated with an extreme negative PNA that developed as an instability of the North Pacific jet, with tropical forcing providing support for a prolonged negative phase. A diagnosis of the zonally symmetric circulation shows that the above extratropical surface warming occurred underneath a deep layer of tropospheric warming, driven by stationary eddy-induced changes in the mean meridional circulation.

Northern Hemisphere↗

NASA NTRS2019

Tracking Aerosol Convective Interactions Experiment (TRACER) Science Plan

Convective clouds play an important role in the Earth's climate system as a driver of large-scale circulations and a primary mechanism for the transport of heat, moisture, aerosols, and momentum throughout the troposphere. Despite their climatic importance, multi-scale models continue to have persistent biases produced by insufficient representation of convective clouds. This is the result of an incomplete understanding of key processes such as convective initiation, updraft and downdraft dynamics, cloud and precipitation microphysics, and aerosol-convection interactions.The Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation-Climate Initiative, an international research group dedicated to advancing understanding of aerosol impacts on clouds relevant to climate, has identified the Houston, Texas region as an optimal location for targeted studies of aerosol-convection interactions within frequently developing isolated deep convection. Houston lies within a humid subtropical climate regime, where onshore flow and sea-breeze convection interact with a range of aerosol conditions associated with Houston's urban and industrial emissions. Pilot studies have suggested that convective clouds in this region are potentially significantly impacted by the varying aerosol conditions.

Jensen, M.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Cold Season Performance of the NU-WRF Regional Climate Model in the Great Lakes Region

As Earth’s largest collection of freshwater, the Laurentian Great Lakes have enormous ecological and socio-economic value. Their basin has become a regional hotspot of climatic and limnological change, potentially threatening its vital natural resources. Consequentially, there is a need to assess the current state of climate models regarding their performance across the Great Lakes region and develop the next generation of high-resolution regional climate models to address complex limnological processes and lake-atmosphere interactions. In response to this need, the current paper focuses on the generation and analysis of a 20-member ensemble of 3-km National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) simulations for the 2014-2015 cold season. The study aims to identify the model’s strengths and weaknesses; optimal configuration for the region; and the impacts of different physics parameterizations, coupling to a 1D lake model, time-variant lake-surface temperatures, and spectral nudging. Several key biases are identified in the cold-season simulations for the Great Lakes region, including an atmospheric cold bias that is amplified by coupling to a 1D lake model but diminished by applying the Community Atmosphere Model radiation scheme and Morrison microphysics scheme; an excess precipitation bias; anomalously early initiation of fall lake turnover and subsequent cold lake bias; excessive and overly persistent lake ice cover; and insufficient evaporation over Lakes Superior and Huron. The research team is currently addressing these key limitations by coupling NU-WRF to a 3D lake model in support of the next generation of regional climate models for the critical Great Lakes Basin.

Michael Notaro↗

NASA NTRS2011

Remote Asynchronous Message Service Gateway

The Remote Asynchronous Message Service (RAMS) gateway is a special-purpose AMS application node that enables exchange of AMS messages between nodes residing in different AMS "continua," notionally in different geographical locations. JPL s implementation of RAMS gateway functionality is integrated with the ION (Interplanetary Overlay Network) implementation of the DTN (Delay-Tolerant Networking) bundle protocol, and with JPL s implementation of AMS itself. RAMS protocol data units are encapsulated in ION bundles and are forwarded to the neighboring RAMS gateways identified in the source gateway s AMS management information base. Each RAMS gateway has interfaces in two communication environments: the AMS message space it serves, and the RAMS network - the grid or tree of mutually aware RAMS gateways - that enables AMS messages produced in one message space to be forwarded to other message spaces of the same venture. Each gateway opens persistent, private RAMS network communication channels to the RAMS gateways of other message spaces for the same venture, in other continua. The interconnected RAMS gateways use these communication channels to forward message petition assertions and cancellations among themselves. Each RAMS gateway subscribes locally to all subjects that are of interest in any of the linked message spaces. On receiving its copy of a message on any of these subjects, the RAMS gateway node uses the RAMS network to forward the message to every other RAMS gateway whose message space contains at least one node that has subscribed to messages on that subject. On receiving a message via the RAMS network from some other RAMS gateway, the RAMS gateway node forwards the message to all subscribers in its own message space.

Wang, Shin-Ywan↗

NASA NTRS1976

Waves in the vicinity of the magnetopause

IMP 6 magnetic-field measurements demonstrate that the magnetopause is a complex variable boundary with few specific characteristics that persist from orbit to orbit. The appearance of the local magnetopause is determined largely by the boundary conditions imposed by the interplanetary field and the geomagnetic dipole. Magnitude changes across the magnetopause are frequently absent, and if concurrently the magnetosheath and magnetosphere fields also happen to be aligned, then the Chapman-Ferraro current sheet is absent. Ion-cyclotron waves are identified in the magnetosheath near the magnetopause. Similar waves near the proton gyrofrequency are frequently seen in the current sheet associated with a large-angle change at the boundary. Such waves may be important in the transfer of particles and momentum into the magnetosphere. Tailward propagating waves on the magnetopause boundary are found to be responsible for multiple crossings of the tail boundary at 32 earth radii. Monochromatic waves are occasionally seen in the magnetosphere at frequencies slightly below the proton gyrofrequency.

Fairfield, D. H.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Grid Technology as a Cyberinfrastructure for Delivering High-End Services to the Earth and Space Science Community

Grid technology consists of middleware that permits distributed computations, data and sensors to be seamlessly integrated into a secure, single-sign-on processing environment. In &is environment, a user has to identify and authenticate himself once to the grid middleware, and then can utilize any of the distributed resources to which he has been,panted access. Grid technology allows resources that exist in enterprises that are under different administrative control to be securely integrated into a single processing environment The grid community has adopted commercial web services technology as a means for implementing persistent, re-usable grid services that sit on top of the basic distributed processing environment that grids provide. These grid services can then form building blocks for even more complex grid services. Each grid service is characterized using the Web Service Description Language, which provides a description of the interface and how other applications can access it. The emerging Semantic grid work seeks to associates sufficient semantic information with each grid service such that applications wii1 he able to automatically select, compose and if necessary substitute available equivalent services in order to assemble collections of services that are most appropriate for a particular application. Grid technology has been used to provide limited support to various Earth and space science applications. Looking to the future, this emerging grid service technology can provide a cyberinfrastructures for both the Earth and space science communities. Groups within these communities could transform those applications that have community-wide applicability into persistent grid services that are made widely available to their respective communities. In concert with grid-enabled data archives, users could easily create complex workflows that extract desired data from one or more archives and process it though an appropriate set of widely distributed grid services discovered using semantic grid technology. As required, high-end computational resources could be drawn from available grid resource pools. Using grid technology, this confluence of data, services and computational resources could easily be harnessed to transform data from many different sources into a desired product that is delivered to a user's workstation or to a web portal though which it could be accessed by its intended audience.

Hinke, Thomas H.↗

NASA NTRS2010

An Examination of the Hadley Sea-Surface Temperature Time Series for the Nino 3.4 Region

The Hadley sea-surface temperature (HadSST) dataset is investigated for the interval 1871-2008. The purpose of this investigation is to determine the degree of success in identifying and characterizing El Nino (EN) southern (ENSO) extreme events, both EN and La Nina (LN) events. Comparisons are made against both the Southern Oscillation Index for the same time interval and with published values of the Oceanic Nino Index for the interval since 1950. Some 60 ENSO extreme events are identified in the HadSST dataset, consisting of 33 EN and 27 LN events. Also, preferential associations are found to exist between the duration of ENSO extreme events and their maximum anomalous excursion temperatures and between the recurrence rate for an EN event and the duration of the last known EN event. Because the present ongoing EN is a strong event, it should persist 11 months or longer, inferring that the next EN event should not be expected until June 2012 or later. Furthermore, the decadal sum of EN-related months is found to have increased somewhat steadily since the decade of 1920-1929, suggesting that the present decade (2010-2019) possibly will see about 3-4 EN events, totaling about 37 +/- 3 EN-related months (i.e., months that meet the definition for the occurrence of an EN event).

Wilson, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Virtual Flight Demonstration of the Stratospheric Dual-Aircraft Platform

A baseline configuration for the dual-aircraft platform (DAP) concept is described and evaluated in a physics-based flight dynamics simulations for two month-long missions as a communications relay in the lower stratosphere above central Florida, within 150-miles of downtown Orlando.The DAP configuration features two large glider-like (130 ft wing span) unmanned aerial vehicles connected via a long adjustable cable (total extendible length of 3000 ft) which effectively sail without propulsion using available wind shear. Use of onboard LiDAR wind profilers to forecast wind distributions are found to be necessary to enable the platform to efficiently adjust flight conditions to remain sailing by finding sufficient wind shear across the platform. The aircraft derive power from solar cells, like a conventional solar aircraft, but also extract wind power using the propeller as a turbine when there is an excess of wind shear available.Month-long atmospheric profiles (at 3-5 min intervals) in the vicinity of 60,000-ft are derived from archived data measured by the 50-Mhz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler at Cape Canaveral and used in the DAP flight simulations. A cursory evaluation of these datasets show that sufficient wind shear for DAP sailing is persistent, suggesting that DAP could potentially sail over 90% of the month-long durations even when limited by modest ascent/descent rates.DAP's novel guidance software uses a non-linear constrained optimization technique to define waypoints such that sailing mode of flight is maintained where possible, and minimal thrust is required where sailing is not practical. A set of constraints are identified which result in waypoints that enable efficient flight (i.e., minimal use of propulsion) over the two month-long flight simulations. Waypoint solutions may need to be tabulated for a wide range of potential atmospheric conditions and stored onboard for quick retrieval on a real DAP.DAP's flight control software uses an unconventional mixture of spacecraft and aircraft control techniques. Flight simulations confirms that this controls approach enables the platform to consistently reach successive waypoints over the month-long flight simulations.The ability of DAP to transition between the sailing mode (i.e., cable tension is high) and standard formation flight (i.e., cable tension is low) is a vital capability (e.g., to enable intermittent turns while stationkeeping). A new method to perform these transitions has been identified and characterized with flight simulation which requires special aircraft modifications.The energy-usage of the DAP configuration during two month-long stationkeeping missions over central Florida (i.e., stationkeeping over Orlando) is evaluated and compared to that of a pure solar aircraft of the same weight and aerodynamic performance. DAP is shown to consistently reduce net propulsion usage while simultaneously increasing solar energy capture.A baseline 700 GHz communications system is described and its performance evaluated for the proposed mission over central Florida. It is found that the variable roll orientation of the aircraft would increase the power required to maintain coverage over the stationkeeping radius of 150 miles (e.g., by as much as 100% when DAP is 150 miles from Orlando), compared to level flight. This effect can be mitigated via additional antenna design complexity or a more restricted stationkeeping radius.

Demonstrations↗

NASA NTRS2023

Multiyear Dry Periods in Southern Africa

Characteristics and physical features related to low precipitation across many years in Southern Africa that lead to societal disruptions are diagnosed using observed analyses and an ensemble of historical coupled climate model simulations during 1921 to 2014. Four regions are evaluated, as identified through a hierarchical clustering algorithm applied to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) during the October–April precipitation season. Although dryness spanning many October–April occurs periodically in each region, they seldom occur simultaneously, consistent with largely insignificant SPI cross-correlations between them. However, characteristics relevant to low precipitation across many years are generalizable between the four regions, including the serial persistence of October–April precipitation, the likelihood of consecutive dry October–April, and the likelihood of dry October–April in temporal extents of up to 10 consecutive such 7-month seasons. Systematic precipitation persistence is not a feature in any of the four Southern Africa regions, as serial correlations of October–April SPI are not statistically significant at any time lags. It follows that there is an exponential-folding decay in the likelihood of consecutive October–April for various SPI thresholds and that there is a large spread in the likelihood of low October–April SPI across many years. In terms of physical features, low October–April SPI in each Southern Africa region is closely related to local atmospheric circulations; however, they are not as closely related to sea surface temperatures (SSTs). These results suggest that dryness spanning many years is determined primarily by persistent local circulations related to atmospheric variability and to a lesser extent variability related to SST anomalies, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

subtropical Indian Ocean dipole↗

NASA NTRS1979

Aircraft vortex marking program

A simple, reliable device for identifying atmospheric vortices, principally as generated by in-flight aircraft and with emphasis on the use of nonpolluting aerosols for marking by injection into such vortex (-ices) is presented. The refractive index and droplet size were determined from an analysis of aerosol optical and transport properties as the most significant parameters in effecting vortex optimum light scattering (for visual sighting) and visual persistency of at least 300 sec. The analysis also showed that a steam-ejected tetraethylene glycol aerosol with droplet size near 1 micron and refractive index of approximately 1.45 could be a promising candidate for vortex marking. A marking aerosol was successfully generated with the steam-tetraethylene glycol mixture from breadboard system hardware. A compact 25 lb/f thrust (nominal) H2O2 rocket chamber was the key component of the system which produced the required steam by catalytic decomposition of the supplied H2O2.

Pompa, M. F.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Time scales of pattern evolution from cross-spectrum analysis of advanced very high resolution radiometer and coastal zone color scanner imagery

We have selected square subareas (110 km on a side) from coastal zone color scanner (CZCS) and advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) images for 1981 in the California Current region off northern California for which we could identify sequences of cloud-free data over periods of days to weeks. We applied a two-dimensional fast Fourier transformation to images after median filtering, (x, y) plane removal, and cosine tapering. We formed autospectra and coherence spectra as functions of a scalar wavenumber. Coherence estimates between pairs of images were plotted against time separation between images for several wide wavenumber bands to provide a temporal lagged coherence function. The temporal rate of loss of correlation (decorrelation time scale) in surface patterns provides a measure of the rate of pattern change or evolution as a function of spatial dimension. We found that patterns evolved (or lost correlation) approximately twice as rapidly in upwelling jets as in the 'quieter' regions between jets. The rapid evolution of pigment patterns (lifetime of about 1 week or less for scales of 50-100 km) ought to hinder biomass transfer to zooplankton predators compared with phytoplankton patches that persist for longer times. We found no significant differences between the statistics of CZCS and AVHRR images (spectral shape or rate of decorrelation). In addition, in two of the three areas studied, the peak correlation between AVHRR and CZCS images from the same area occurred at zero lag, indicating that the patterns evolved simutaneously. In the third area, maximum coherence between thermal and pigment patterns occurred when pigment images lagged thermal images by 1-2 days, mirroring the expected lag of high pigment behind low temperatures (and high nutrients) in recently upwelled water. We conclude that in dynamic areas such as coastal upwelling systems, the phytoplankton cells (identified by pigment color patterns) behave largely as passive scalars at the mesoscale and that growth, death, and sinking of phytoplankton collectively play at most a mariginal role in determining the spectral statistics of the pigment patterns.

Denman, Kenneth L.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Cluster analysis of multiple planetary flow regimes

A modified cluster analysis method was developed to identify spatial patterns of planetary flow regimes, and to study transitions between them. This method was applied first to a simple deterministic model and second to Northern Hemisphere (NH) 500 mb data. The dynamical model is governed by the fully-nonlinear, equivalent-barotropic vorticity equation on the sphere. Clusters of point in the model's phase space are associated with either a few persistent or with many transient events. Two stationary clusters have patterns similar to unstable stationary model solutions, zonal, or blocked. Transient clusters of wave trains serve as way stations between the stationary ones. For the NH data, cluster analysis was performed in the subspace of the first seven empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). Stationary clusters are found in the low-frequency band of more than 10 days, and transient clusters in the bandpass frequency window between 2.5 and 6 days. In the low-frequency band three pairs of clusters determine, respectively, EOFs 1, 2, and 3. They exhibit well-known regional features, such as blocking, the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern and wave trains. Both model and low-pass data show strong bimodality. Clusters in the bandpass window show wave-train patterns in the two jet exit regions. They are related, as in the model, to transitions between stationary clusters.

Mo, Kingtse↗

NASA NTRS2004

Dynamics of the Cold Water Event off the Southeast Coast of the United States in the Summer of 2003: An Application of NASA's Remote Sensing Data to Coastal Studies

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments onboard of Terra and Aqua satellites provide, for the first time, concurrent measurements of sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean color, which are suitable for coastal upwelling studies. The accuracy, the 1-km spatial resolution, and the almost complete daily coverage of the MODIS data compared with historical measurements make it advantageous for resolving important coastal fronts of chlorophyll concentration and temperature. The cold SST anomaly during summer 2003 off the coast of the South Atlantic Bight is an event that is comprehensively covered by NASA's MODIS and SeaWinds satellite observations. These data combined with in situ tide gauge, mooring, and ship measurements can be used to identify important dynamics responsible for the anomalous cold water event. The analysis of the data suggests that coastal upwelling occurs in the climatological summer forced by the climatological southerlies over the South Atlantic Bight area in summer. However, the strong buoyancy barrier in summer prevents the cold water below the thermocline from reaching the ocean surface. In summer 2003, the southwesterlies in July through August were extraordinarily strong and persistent, which generated the upwelling currents strong enough to overcome the buoyancy resistance. The results of this analysis demonstrate the possibility of monitoring and forecasting the event using combination of the satellite and in situ observations. The MODIS data are archived and distributed by the NASA's Goddard Earth Science (GES) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC). The data can be accessed via the URL http://wwv.daac.gsfc.nasa.gov/MODIS.

Yuan, Dongliang↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Long-Term Health Risk Quantification

Astronauts face hazards during spaceflight, including space radiation exposure, isolation and confinement, traveling far distances from Earth, reduced gravity levels, and closed and hostile environments. These hazards drive the definition of human health and performance risks associated with spaceflight. NASA’s Human System Risk Board maintains the human spaceflight risk posture for in-mission risks, as well as post-flight, Long-Term Health (LTH)risks potentially occurring later in the astronaut’s life. LTH risk encompasses the timeframe from immediately post-flight, through the rest of an astronaut’s career, through retirement, and until death. Possible LTH risk outcomes include the time and interventions needed for the astronaut to return to preflight physiological states after experiencing spaceflight hazards and recovery from any in-mission medical events that persist into the post-flight timeframe. It includes chronic complications that may arise due to experiencing in-flight medical conditions or injuries and medical conditions that occur later in life with a higher probability of occurrence or with more severity because of their spaceflight exposure. Finally, LTH risk outcomes can also include a reduction in life expectancy due to spaceflight exposures. There have been 144 medical conditions identified by NASA’s Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health team to be associated with LTH risk. Epidemiological studies have been performed for some of these conditions to determine if astronauts suffer from an increased prevalence or severity of the condition due to their spaceflight experience compared to a comparable cohort .Differences in astronaut mortality or morbidity due to spaceflight experience were not detected in several of these studies. There were two cases where a modest increase in the incidence rate of astronaut LTH outcomes was detected. The first suggested an increase in the incidence of melanoma cases in astronauts, where the number of cases in astronauts were similar to the elevated number of cases observed in airplane pilots. The second provided some evidence of elevated numbers of cardiovascular disease events in astronauts compared to an appropriate healthy comparator cohort, which may warrant additional investigation. The lack of detection of LTH risk outcomes should not ease concerns about astronaut LTH. The studies highlighted here constitute only a small portion of the potential LTH conditions that could occur. Once epidemiological studies are performed on all conditions, significant findings may be detected. The analysis of astronaut LTH also suffers from limited numbers of data points because of the limited numbers of astronauts overall and the even fewer who have reached an age where LTH outcomes may begin to manifest. As shuttle and ISS astronauts begin to age and increase the feasibility of analysis, LTH outcomes may be detected. An application of risk quantification is the use of risk metrics within trade studies for resource prioritization and decision making. Trade studies regarding countermeasures to LTH risk outcomes would benefit from a quantification of LTH risk. NASA has ground-based processes in place such as astronaut screening and access to continuous medical monitoring and care during and after their astronaut career which are the main methods for mitigating LTH risk. In-mission countermeasures, such as acceptable levels of medical care and available countermeasures to counter spaceflight related physiological decrements, can mitigate a poor health and performance status immediately post-flight. Identifying appropriate risk metrics, obtaining valid quantities for them, and tying them to LTH countermeasures are necessary steps for realizing their use in trade studies. This presentation will highlight the challenges associated with the identification, quantification, and utilization of LTH risk metrics

Beth Lewandowski↗