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Toward Complete Characterization: Prospects for Directly Imaging Transiting Exoplanets

High-contrast direct imaging of exoplanets can provide many important observables, including measurements of the orbit, spectra that probe the lower layers of the atmosphere, and phase variations of the planet, but cannot directly measure planet radius or mass. Our future understanding of directly imaged exoplanets will therefore rely on extrapolated models of planetary atmospheres and bulk composition, which need robust calibration. We estimate the population of extrasolar planets that could serve as calibrators for these models. Critically, this population of “standard planets” must be accessible to both direct imaging and the transit method, allowing for radius measurement. We show that the search volume of a direct imaging mission eventually overcomes the transit probability falloff with semimajor axis, so that as long as cold planets are not exceedingly rare, the population of transiting planets and directly imageable planets overlaps. Using current extrapolations of Kepler occurrence rates, we estimate that ∼8 standard planets could be characterized shortward of 800 nm with an ambitious future direct imaging mission like LUVOIR-A and several dozen could be detected at the V band. We show the design space that would expand the sample size and discuss the extent to which ground- and space-based surveys could detect this small but crucial population of planets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

OGLE-2018-BLG-0532Lb: Cold Neptune with Possible Jovian Sibling

We report the discovery of the planet OGLE-2018-BLG-0532Lb, with very obvious signatures in the light curve that lead to an estimate of the planet-host mass ratio q=M{sub planet}/M{sub host}≃1×10{sup −4}. Although there are no obvious systematic residuals to this double-lens/single-source (2L1S) fit, we find that χ {sup 2} can be significantly improved by adding either a third lens (3L1S, Δχ {sup 2} = 81) or second source (2L2S, Δχ {sup 2} = 77) to the lens-source geometry. After thorough investigation, we conclude that we cannot decisively distinguish between these two scenarios and therefore focus on the robustly detected planet. However, given the possible presence of a second planet, we investigate to what degree and with what probability such additional planets may affect seemingly single-planet light curves. Our best estimates for the properties of the lens star and the secure planet are a host mass M ∼ 0.25 M {sub ⊙}, system distance D {sub L} ∼ 1 kpc, and planet mass m{sub p,1}=8 M{sub ⊕} with projected separation a{sub 1,⊥}=1.4 au. However, there is a relatively bright I = 18.6 (and also relatively blue) star projected within <50 mas of the lens, and if future high-resolution images show that this is coincident with the lens, then it is possible that it is the lens, in which case, the lens would be both more massive and more distant than the best-estimated values above.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Gas and dust dynamics in γ Cephei-type disks

Context. Giant planets are observed orbiting the primary stars of close binary systems. Such planets may have formed in compact circumprimary disks, which once surrounded these stars, under conditions much different than those encountered around single stars. Aims. In order to quantify the effects of the strong gravitational perturbations exerted on circumprimary disk material, the three-dimensional (3D) dynamics of gas and dust in orbit around the primary star of a compact and eccentric binary system was modeled by applying the stellar and orbital parameters of γ Cephei, a well-known system that can be representative of a class of close binaries. Methods. Circumprimary gas was approximated as an Eulerian viscous and compressible fluid and modeled by means of 3D hydrodynamical simulations, assuming locally isothermal conditions in the medium around the primary star. Dust grains were modeled as Lagrangean particles, subjected to gravity and aerodynamic drag forces. Models that include a giant planet were also considered. Results. Models indicate that spiral density waves excited around pericenter passage propagate toward the inner boundary of the disk, through at least a few pressure scale-heights from the mid-plane, inducing radial and vertical mixing in the gas. However, perturbations imparted to gas, both in terms of eccentricity and precession, are far weaker than previously estimated by two-dimensional (2D) simulations. Models predict small eccentricities, ≲0.03, and slow retrograde precession. The addition of a giant planet does not change the low eccentricity state of the disk. The parameters applied to the disk would lead to the formation of a massive planet, many times the mass of Jupiter, in agreement with some observations. Micron to mm-size dust grains are well coupled to the gas, resulting in similar dynamics and statistically similar distributions of orbital elements. The planet only affects the dust distributions locally. In agreement with outcomes of recent 2D models, the lifetime of an isolated circumprimary disk would be brief, ~10 5 years, because of its compact nature, requiring a long-term external supply of mass to allow for the in situ formation of a giant planet.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

California-Kepler Survey. IX. Revisiting the Minimum-mass Extrasolar Nebula with Precise Stellar Parameters

We investigate a possible correlation between the solid surface density Σ of the minimum-mass extrasolar nebula (MMEN) and the host star mass M {sub ⋆} and metallicity [Fe/H]. Leveraging on the precise host star properties from the California-Kepler Survey (CKS), we found that Σ=50{sub −20}{sup +33} g cm{sup −2} (a/1 au){sup −1.75±0.07} (M {sub ⋆}/M {sub ⊙}){sup 1.04±0.22} 10{sup 0.22±0.05[Fe/H]} for Kepler-like systems (1–4R {sub ⊕}; a < 1 au). The strong M {sub ⋆} dependence is reminiscent of previous dust continuum results that the solid disk mass scales with M {sub ⋆}. The weaker [Fe/H] dependence shows that sub-Neptune planets, unlike giant planets, form readily in lower metallicity environment. The innermost region (a < 0.1 au) of an MMEN maintains a smooth profile despite a steep decline of planet occurrence rate: a result that favors the truncation of disks by corotating magnetospheres with a range of rotation periods, rather than the sublimation of dust. The Σ of Kepler multitransiting systems shows a much stronger correlation with M {sub ⋆} and [Fe/H] than singles. This suggests that the dynamically hot evolution that produced single systems also partially removed the memory of formation in disks. Radial-velocity planets yielded a MMEN very similar to CKS planets; transit-timing-variation planets’ postulated convergent migration history is supported by their poorly constrained MMEN. We found that lower mass stars have a higher efficiency of forming/retaining planets: for Sun-like stars, about 20% of the solid mass within ∼1 au are converted/preserved as sub-Neptunes, compared to 70% for late-K to early-M stars. This may be due to the lower binary fraction, lower giant-planet occurrence, or the longer disk lifetime of lower mass stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Two Views of the Radius Gap and the Role of Light Curve Fitting

Recently, several groups have resolved a gap that bifurcates planets between the size of Earth and Neptune into two populations. The location and depth of this feature is an important signature of the physical processes that form and sculpt planets. In particular, planets residing in the radius gap are valuable probes of these processes as they may be undergoing the final stages of envelope loss. Here, we discuss two views of the radius gap by Fulton & Petigura (F18) and Van Eylen et al. (V18). In V18, the gap is wider and more devoid of planets. This is due, in part, to V18's more precise measurements of planet radius R{sub p}. Thanks to Gaia, uncertainties in stellar radii R{sub ⋆} are no longer the limiting uncertainties in determining R{sub p} for the majority of Kepler planets; instead, errors in R{sub p}/R{sub ⋆} dominate. V18's analysis incorporated short-cadence photometry along with constraints on mean stellar density that enabled more accurate determinations of R{sub p}/R{sub ⋆}. In the F18 analysis, less accurate R{sub p}/R{sub ⋆} blurs the boundary the radius gap. The differences in R{sub p}/R{sub ⋆} are largest at high impact parameter (b≳0.8) and often exceed 10%. This motivates excluding high-b planets from demographic studies, but identifying such planets from long-cadence photometry alone is challenging. We show that transit duration can serve as an effective proxy, and we leverage this information to enhance the contrast between the super-Earth and sub-Neptune populations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Multiwavelength Look at the GJ 9827 System: No Evidence of Extended Atmospheres in GJ 9827b and d from HST and CARMENES Data

GJ 9827 is a bright star hosting a planetary system with three transiting planets. As a multiplanet system with planets that sprawl within the boundaries of the radius gap between terrestrial and gaseous planets, GJ 9827 is an optimal target to study the evolution of the atmospheres of close-in planets with a common evolutionary history and their dependence from stellar irradiation. Here we report on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and CARMENES transit observations of GJ 9827 planets b and d. We performed a stellar and ISM characterization from the ultraviolet HST spectra, obtaining fluxes for Lyα and Mg ii of F(Lyα) = (5.42{sub −0.75}{sup +0.96}) × 10{sup −13} erg cm{sup −2} s{sup −1} and F(Mgii) = (5.64 ± 0.24) × 10{sup −14} erg cm{sup −2} s{sup −1}. We also investigated a possible absorption signature in Lyα in the atmosphere of GJ 9827b during a transit event from HST spectra, as well as Hα and He i signature for the atmosphere of GJ 9827b and d from CARMENES spectra. We found no evidence of an extended atmosphere in either of the planets. This result is also supported by our analytical estimations of mass loss based on the measured radiation fields for all three planets of this system, which led to a mass-loss rate of 0.4, 0.3, and 0.1 planetary masses per Gyr for GJ 9827b, c, and d, respectively. These values indicate that the planets could have lost their volatiles quickly in their evolution and probably do not retain an atmosphere at the current stage.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Long-period Jovian Tilts the Orbits of Two sub-Neptunes Relative to Stellar Spin Axis in Kepler-129

We present the discovery of Kepler-129 d (P{sub d}=7.2{sub -0.3}{sup +0.4} yr, msini{sub d}=8.3{sub -0.7}{sup +1.1} M{sub Jup}, e{sub d}=0.15{sub -0.05}{sup +0.07}) based on six years of radial-velocity observations from Keck/HIRES. Kepler-129 also hosts two transiting sub-Neptunes: Kepler-129 b (P {sub b} = 15.79 days, r {sub b} = 2.40 ± 0.04 R {sub ⊕}) and Kepler-129 c (P {sub c} = 82.20 days, r {sub c} = 2.52 ± 0.07 R {sub ⊕}) for which we measure masses of m {sub b} < 20 M {sub ⊕} and m{sub c}=43{sub -12}{sup +13} M{sub ⊕}. Kepler-129 is a hierarchical system consisting of two tightly packed inner planets and a massive external companion. In such a system, two inner planets precess around the orbital normal of the outer companion, causing their inclinations to oscillate with time. Based on an asteroseismic analysis of Kepler data, we find tentative evidence that Kepler-129 b and c are misaligned with stellar spin axis by ≳38°, which could be torqued by Kepler-129 d if it is inclined by ≳19° relative to inner planets. Using N-body simulations, we provide additional constraints on the mutual inclination between Kepler-129 d and inner planets by estimating the fraction of time during which two inner planets both transit. The probability that two planets both transit decreases as their misalignment with Kepler-129 d increases. We also find a more massive Kepler-129 c enables the two inner planets to become strongly coupled and more resistant to perturbations from Kepler-129 d. The unusually high mass of Kepler-129 c provides a valuable benchmark for both planetary dynamics and interior structure, since the best-fit mass is consistent with this 2.5 R {sub ⊕} planet having a rocky surface.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The GAPS programme at TNG

Neptunes represent one of the main types of exoplanets and have chemical-physical characteristics halfway between rocky and gas giant planets. Therefore, their characterization is important for understanding and constraining both the formation mechanisms and the evolution patterns of planets. We investigate the exoplanet candidate TOI-1422 b, which was discovered by the TESS space telescope around the high proper-motion G2 V star TOI-1422 (V = 10.6 mag), 155 pc away, with the primary goal of confirming its planetary nature and characterising its properties. We monitored TOI-1422 with the HARPS-N spectrograph for 1.5 yr to precisely quantify its radial velocity (RV) variation. We analyse these RV measurements jointly with TESS photometry and check for blended companions through high-spatial resolution images using the AstraLux instrument. We estimate that the parent star has a radius of R$_\star$ = 1.019 -0.013 +0.014 R ⊙ , and a mass of M$_\star$ = 1.019 -0.013 +0.014 M ⊙ . Our analysis confirms the planetary nature of TOI-1422 b and also suggests the presence of a Neptune-mass planet on a more distant orbit, the candidate TOI-1422 c, which is not detected in TESS light curves. The inner planet, TOI-1422 b, orbits on a period of P b = 12.9972 ± 0.0006 days and has an equilibrium temperature of T eq,b = 867 ± 17 K. With a radius of R b = 3.96 -0.11 +0.13 R ⊕ , a mass of M b = 9.0 -2.0 +2.3 M ⊕ and, consequently, a density of ρ b = 0.795 -0.235 +0.290 g cm -3 , it can be considered a warm Neptune-sized planet. Compared to other exoplanets of a similar mass range, TOI-1422 b is among the most inflated, and we expect this planet to have an extensive gaseous envelope that surrounds a core with a mass fraction around 10% – 25% of the total mass of the planet. The outer non-transiting planet candidate, TOI-1422 c, has an orbital period of P c = 29.29 -0.20 +0.21 days, a minimum mass, M c sin i, of 11.1 -2.3 +2.6 M ⊕ , an equilibrium temperature of T eq,c = 661 ± 13 K and, therefore, if confirmed, could be considered as another warm Neptune.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

TOI-2374 b and TOI-3071 b: two metal-rich sub-Saturns well within the Neptunian desert

ABSTRACT We report the discovery of two transiting planets detected by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), TOI-2374 b and TOI-3071 b, orbiting a K5V and an F8V star, respectively, with periods of 4.31 and 1.27 d, respectively. We confirm and characterize these two planets with a variety of ground-based and follow-up observations, including photometry, precise radial velocity monitoring and high-resolution imaging. The planetary and orbital parameters were derived from a joint analysis of the radial velocities and photometric data. We found that the two planets have masses of (57 ± 4) M⊕ or (0.18 ± 0.01) MJ, and (68 ± 4) M⊕ or (0.21 ± 0.01) MJ, respectively, and they have radii of (6.8 ± 0.3) R⊕ or (0.61 ± 0.03) RJ and (7.2 ± 0.5) R⊕ or (0.64 ± 0.05) RJ, respectively. These parameters correspond to sub-Saturns within the Neptunian desert, both planets being hot and highly irradiated, with Teq ≈ 745 K and Teq ≈ 1812 K, respectively, assuming a Bond albedo of 0.5. TOI-3071 b has the hottest equilibrium temperature of all known planets with masses between 10 and 300 M⊕ and radii less than 1.5 RJ. By applying gas giant evolution models we found that both planets, especially TOI-3071 b, are very metal-rich. This challenges standard formation models which generally predict lower heavy-element masses for planets with similar characteristics. We studied the evolution of the planets’ atmospheres under photoevaporation and concluded that both are stable against evaporation due to their large masses and likely high metallicities in their gaseous envelopes.

Hacker, Alejandro (ORCID:0009000994520181)↗

Octofitter: Fast, Flexible, and Accurate Orbit Modeling to Detect Exoplanets

As next-generation imaging instruments and interferometers search for planets closer to their stars, they must contend with increasing orbital motion and longer integration times. These compounding effects make it difficult to detect faint planets but also present an opportunity. Increased orbital motion makes it possible to move the search for planets into the orbital domain, where direct images can be freely combined with the radial velocity and proper motion anomaly, even without a confirmed detection in any single epoch. In this paper, we present a fast and differentiable multimethod orbit-modeling and planet detection code called Octofitter. This code is designed to be highly modular and allows users to easily adjust priors, change parameterizations, and specify arbitrary function relations between the parameters of one or more planets. Octofitter further supplies tools for examining model outputs including prior and posterior predictive checks and simulation-based calibration. We demonstrate the capabilities of Octofitter on real and simulated data from different instruments and methods, including HD 91312, simulated JWST/NIRISS aperture masking interferometry observations, radial velocity curves, and grids of images from the Gemini Planet Imager. We show that Octofitter can reliably recover faint planets in long sequences of images with arbitrary orbital motion. This publicly available tool will enable the broad application of multiepoch and multimethod exoplanet detection, which could improve how future targeted ground- and space-based surveys are performed. Finally, its rapid convergence makes it a useful addition to the existing ecosystem of tools for modeling the orbits of directly imaged planets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Growth of Jupiter: Formation in disks of gas and solids and evolution to the present epoch

The formation of Jupiter is modeled via core-nucleated accretion, and the planet's evolution is simulated up to the present epoch. Throughout the phases when the planet acquires most of its heavy-element content, the calculation of solids' accretion accounts for interactions with an evolving disk of planetesimals. The phase of growth from an embryo of a few hundred kilometers in radius until the time when the accretion of gas overtakes solids' accretion was presented by D'Angelo et al., and the same numerical methods are applied here. Those calculations followed the formation for about 4 × 10 5 years, until the epoch when the heavy-element and hydrogen/helium masses were $M_Z ≈ 7.3$ and $M_{XY} ≈ 0.15$ Earth's masses ($M_⊕$), respectively, and $\dot {M} _{XY} ≈ $$\dot {M}_Z$. In this work, the calculation is continued through the phase when $M_{XY}$ grows to equal $M_Z$ , at which age, about 2.4 × 10 6 years, the total mass of the planet is $M_p ≈ 20 M_⊕$. About 9 × 10 5 years later, $M_p$ is approximately $60 M_⊕$ and $M_Z ≈ 16 M_⊕$, three-quarters of which are delivered by planetesimals larger than 10 km in radius. Around this epoch, the contraction of the envelope dictates gas accretion rates a few times 10 –3 $M_⊕$ per year, initiating the regime of disk-limited accretion, whereby the planet can accrete all the gas provided by the disk, and its evolution is therefore tied to disk's evolution. Growth is continued by constructing simplified models of protosolar accretion disks that evolve through viscous diffusion, winds, and accretion on the planet. Jupiter's formation ends after ≈ 3.4–4.2 Myr, depending on the applied disk viscosity parameter, when nebula gas disperses. The young Jupiter is 4.5–5.5 times as voluminous as it is presently and thousands of times as luminous, ~10 –5 $L_⊙$. The heavy-element mass is ≈ 20 $M_⊕$. The evolution proceeds through the cooling and contraction phase, in isolation except for solar irradiation. After 4570 Myr, the age of the solar system, radius and luminosity of the planet are within 10$\%$ of current values, accounting also for uncertainties in the power absorbed from the Sun. During formation, and soon thereafter, the planet exhibits features, e.g., luminosity and effective temperature, that may probe aspects of the latter stages of formation, if observable. These possibly distinctive features, however, seem to disappear within a few tens of Myr.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Oxidation of the Interiors of Carbide Exoplanets

Astrophysical measurements have shown that some stars have sufficiently high carbon-to-oxygen ratios such that the planets they host would be mainly composed of carbides instead of silicates. We studied the behavior of silicon carbide in the presence of water under the high pressure–temperature conditions relevant to planetary interiors in the laser-heated diamond-anvil cell. When reacting with water, silicon carbide converts to silica (stishovite) and diamond at pressures up to 50 GPa and temperatures up to 2500 K: $\mathrm{SiC}+2{{\rm{H}}}_{2}{\rm{O}}\to {\mathrm{SiO}}_{2}+{\rm{C}}+2{{\rm{H}}}_{2}$. Therefore, if water can be incorporated into carbide planets during their formation or through later delivery, they could be oxidized and have mineralogy dominated by silicates and diamond in their interiors. The reaction could produce CH 4 at shallower depths and H 2 at greater depths that could be degassed from the interior, causing the atmospheres of the converted carbon planets to be rich in reducing gases. Excess water after the reaction can be stored in dense silica polymorphs in the interiors of the converted carbon planets. Such conversion of mineralogy to diamond and silicates would decrease the density of carbon-rich planet, making the converted planets distinct from silicate planets in mass–radius relations for the 2–8 Earth mass range.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Dynamical instability in multi-orbiter systems with gas friction

ABSTRACT Closely packed multiplanet systems are known to experience dynamical instability if the spacings between the planets are too small. Such instability can be tempered by the frictional forces acting on the planets from gaseous discs. A similar situation applies to stellar-mass black holes embedded in active galactic nuclei discs around supermassive black holes. We use N-body integrations to evaluate how the frictional damping of orbital eccentricity affects the growth of dynamical instability for a wide range of K (the difference in the planetary semimajor axes in units of the mutual Hill radius) and (unequal) planet masses. We find that, in general, the stable region (large K) and unstable region (small K) are separated by a “grey zone”, where the (in)stability is not guaranteed. We report the numerical values of the critical spacing for stability Kcrit and the “grey zone” range in different systems, and provide fitting formulae for arbitrary frictional forcing strength. We show that the stability of a system depends on the damping time-scale τ relative to the zero-friction instability growth time-scale tinst: two-planet systems are stable if tinst ≳ τ; three-planet systems require tinst ≳ 10τ−100τ. When K is sufficiently small, tinst can be less than the synodic period between the planets, which makes frictional stabilization unlikely to occur. As K increases, tinst tends to grow exponentially, but can also fluctuate by a few orders of magnitude. We also devise a linear map to analyse the dynamical instability of the “planet + test mass” system, and find qualitative agreement with N-body simulations.

Li, Jiaru (ORCID:0000000155507421)↗

Eject, crash, or survive: Using machine learning to predict orbital instability of exoplanetary systems

Astronomers throughout history, including titans like Kepler and Newton, have tackled planetary dynamics and orbital instability. Despite strides taken in research, understanding the evolution of planetary orbits remains an intricate, computationally expensive, and analytically unsolved problem. I apply machine learning classification methods to numerical simulations of planetary systems in order to predict the long-term fate of the planet - whether the planet remains in a stable orbit or not. My method uses the first 41.1 years (≤ 500 orbits) of data from a planet’s simulation to calculate 17 dynamically-motivated metrics; I trained my classifier on these features to predict a planet’s stability after 107 years. At 84.33%, my classifier was comparable in accuracy to pre-existing literature, despite using significantly less computational power than most other methods. In my research, I found that the standard deviation of eccentricity, mass ratios for neighboring planets, and semi-major axis ratio with the outer planet neighbor to be the most predictive features of instability. I propose reasons for the importance of these features, their role in planetary dynamics, as well as possible explanations for why some planets were misclassified. By understanding the important metrics of instability and reasons for misclassification, we can begin to understand more about system architectures, orbital motion and dynamics, and the formation and evolution of the exoplanetary systems. This is applicable in our own Solar System, and with exoplanet discovery missions such as TESS, this research becomes especially relevant in understanding the new exoplanetary systems we discover.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Eject, crash, or survive: Using machine learning to predict orbital instability of exoplanetary systems

Astronomers throughout history, including titans like Kepler and Newton, have tackled planetary dynamics and orbital instability. Despite strides taken in research, understanding the evolution of planetary orbits remains an intricate, computationally expensive, and analytically unsolved problem. I apply machine learning classification methods to numerical simulations of planetary systems in order to predict the long-term fate of the planet - whether the planet remains in a stable orbit or not. My method uses the first 41.1 years (≤ 500 orbits) of data from a planet’s simulation to calculate 17 dynamically-motivated metrics; I trained my classifier on these features to predict a planet’s stability after 107 years. At 84.33%, my classifier was comparable in accuracy to pre-existing literature, despite using significantly less computational power than most other methods. In my research, I found that the standard deviation of eccentricity, mass ratios for neighboring planets, and semi-major axis ratio with the outer planet neighbor to be the most predictive features of instability. I propose reasons for the importance of these features, their role in planetary dynamics, as well as possible explanations for why some planets were misclassified. By understanding the important metrics of instability and reasons for misclassification, we can begin to understand more about system architectures, orbital motion and dynamics, and the formation and evolution of the exoplanetary systems. This is applicable in our own Solar System, and with exoplanet discovery missions such as TESS, this research becomes especially relevant in understanding the new exoplanetary systems we discover.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Machine Learns to Predict the Stability of Highly Diverse Multi-planetary Systems

Machine learning has proven to be an invaluable tool for characterizing the stability of planets in simplified planetary systems. In this work, we investigate the performance of a machine learning classifier on tightlypacked systems containing a rich diversity of planets, from Earths to Jupiters. Using information derived from short numerical simulations about a planet’s early orbital evolution and its relationship with the most massive planets in the system, we train a random forest classifier to predict instability with a > 88 percent accuracy. Our classifier relies on relative planet masses and the standard deviation of eccentricity for much of its predictive power. Most misclassified planets lie along a multi-dimensional boundary between stable and unstable planets, indicating that their early orbital evolution is ambiguous. The major reason for misclassification in this work is timescale: because our classifier uses information from only the first 137 years of simulation data, it is blind to late time interactions that cause or prevent instability. Machine learning methods like those utilized in this work provide powerful tools to complement numerical simulations across a wide range of planetary architectures.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Second-generation dust in planetary systems: the case of HD 163296

Observations indicate that large, dust-laden protoplanetary discs are common. Some features, like gaps, rings, and spirals, suggest they may host young planets, which can excite the orbits of nearby leftover planetesimals. Energetic collisions among these bodies can lead to the production of second-generation dust. Grains produced by collisions may have a dynamical behaviour different from that of first-generation, primordial dust out of which planetesimals and planets formed. Here, we aim to study these differences for the HD 163296 system and determine whether dynamical signatures in the mixture of the two dust populations can help separate their contributions. We use three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic models to describe the gaseous disc with three, Saturn- to Jupiter-mass, embedded planets. Dust grains, of sizes $1\, \mu \mathrm{m}$–$1\, \mathrm{mm}$, are treated as Lagrangian particles with resolved thermodynamics and mass-loss. Initial disc and planet configurations are derived from observation-based work, which indicates low gas viscosity. The 3D approach also allows us to detect the formation of vortices induced by Rossby waves, where dust becomes concentrated and may contribute to planetesimal formation. We find that the main differences in the dynamical behaviour of first- and second-generation dust occur in the vertical distribution. The two populations have similar distributions around the disc mid-plane, although second-generation dust shows longer residence times close to the radial locations of the planets’ gas gaps. Sedimentation rates of $\mu$m-sized grains are comparable to or lower than the production rates by planetesimals’ collisions, making this population potentially observable. These outcomes can be extended to similar systems harbouring giant planets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Precise Transit and Radial-velocity Characterization of a Resonant Pair: The Warm Jupiter TOI-216c and Eccentric Warm Neptune TOI-216b

TOI-216 hosts a pair of warm, large exoplanets discovered by the TESS mission. These planets were found to be in or near the 2:1 resonance, and both of them exhibit transit timing variations (TTVs). Precise characterization of the planets’ masses and radii, orbital properties, and resonant behavior can test theories for the origins of planets orbiting close to their stars. Previous characterization of the system using the first six sectors of TESS data suffered from a degeneracy between planet mass and orbital eccentricity. Radial-velocity measurements using HARPS, FEROS, and the Planet Finder Spectrograph break that degeneracy, and an expanded TTV baseline from TESS and an ongoing ground-based transit observing campaign increase the precision of the mass and eccentricity measurements. We determine that TOI-216c is a warm Jupiter, TOI-216b is an eccentric warm Neptune, and that they librate in 2:1 resonance with a moderate libration amplitude of 60{sub −2}{sup +2} deg, a small but significant free eccentricity of 0.0222{sub −0.0003}{sup +0.0005} for TOI-216b, and a small but significant mutual inclination of 1.°2–3.°9 (95% confidence interval). The libration amplitude, free eccentricity, and mutual inclination imply a disturbance of TOI-216b before or after resonance capture, perhaps by an undetected third planet.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗