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At least 217 records · Page 12

A Multi-Region SEIR Model Incorporating Inter-County Mobility and Time-Dependent Transmission Dynamics: Application to COVID-19 Disease Outbreak Data in North Carolina.

Classical infectious disease compartmental models typically do not incorporate spatial heterogeneity or mobility. We develop a multi-region susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model in which disease dynamics are coupled via inter-region mobility and the transmission rate is both region and time dependent. We calibrate the model using rolling averages of daily COVID-19 data in all 100 North Carolina counties. Mobility parameters are prescribed using daily inter-county commuter data. The number of transmission rate parameters is substantially reduced by hypothesizing that the dynamics correlate with county-level population density. Parameter estimation is carried out using several objective functions with error terms at different scales. An additive combination of least squares error at the county-level and the state-level, along with a quadratic transmission rate polynomial, yields the lowest overall error at both spatial scales. The calibrated model is used to simulate regional effects of perturbing disease transmission rates in adjacent counties and to illustrate effects of the state’s mobility infrastructure on disease dynamics and spread for a new disease outbreak.

COVID-19 modeling↗

Recruitment dynamics in complex life cycles

Factors affecting marine population fluctuations are discussed with particular attention given to a common barnacle species of the Pacific coast of North America. It is shown how models combining larval circulation with adult interactions can potentially forecast population fluctuations. These findings demonstrate how processes in different ecological habitats are coupled.

Roughgarden, Jonathan↗

Particle dynamics and current-free double layers in an expanding, collisionless, two-electron-population plasma

The expansion of a two-electron-population, collisionless plasma into vacuum has been examined in detail. Plasma density, plasma potential, electric field, and particle disribution functions have been measured in situ. It is demonstrated that the presence of a low-pressure (P not less than 2 x 10 to the -5th torr) background neutral gas modifies the expansion of the plasma. A new plasma source creating dense, pulsed discharge plasma with a low background pressure (P not greater than 2 x 10 to the -6th torr) has been developed to perform in situ measurements of the temporal and spatial plasma evolution during its expansion into vacuum.

Hairapetian, G.↗

Tracking dissociation pathways of nitrobenzene via mega-electron-volt ultrafast electron diffraction

As the simplest nitroaromatic compound, nitrobenzene is an interesting model system to explore the rich photochemistry of nitroaromatic compounds. Previous investigations of nitrobenzene's photochemical dynamics have probed structural and electronic properties. These investigations paint, at times, a convoluted and sometimes contradictory description of the photochemical landscape. Here, we investigate the ultrafast dynamics of nitrobenzene triggered by photoexcitation at 267 nm for the first time using a structural probe with femtosecond time resolution. Our probe complements previous measurements of nitrobenzene's electronic structure evolution and aids in determining the photochemical dynamics with less ambiguity. We employ megaelectronvolt ultrafast electron diffraction to follow nitrobenzene's structural evolution within the first 5 ps after photoexcitation. We observe ground state recovery within 160 ± 60 fs through nonadiabatic dynamics. Based on comparisons of the experimental signal with molecular dynamics simulations, we exclude a significant population of the triplet manifold. Furthermore, we do not observe fragmentation of nitrobenzene within the investigated time window, which indicates that previously observed photofragmentation reactions take place in the vibrationally 'hot' ground state on timescales considerably beyond 5 ps.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Mean-Field Ring Polymer Rates Using a Population Dividing Surface

Mean-field Ring Polymer Molecular Dynamics (MF-RPMD) offers a computationally efficient method for the simulation of reaction rates in multi-level systems. Previous work has established that, to model a nonadiabatic state-to-state reaction accurately, the dividing surface must be chosen to explicitly sample kinked ring polymer configurations where at least one bead is in a different electronic state than the others. Building on this, we introduce a population difference coordinate and a kink-constrained dividing surface, and we test the accuracy of the resulting mean-field rate theory on a series of bilinear coupling model systems. Here, we demonstrate that this new MF-RPMD rate approach is efficient to implement and quantitatively accurate for models over a wide range of driving forces, coupling strengths, and temperatures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Vortex-Controlled Quasiparticle Multiplication and Self-Growth Dynamics in Superconducting Resonators

Even in the quantum limit, non-equilibrium quasiparticle (QP) populations induce QP poisoning that irreversibly relaxes the quantum state and significantly degrades the coherence of transmon qubits. A particularly detrimental yet previously unexplored mechanism arises from QP multiplication facilitated by vortex trapping in superconducting quantum circuits, where a high-energy QP relaxes by breaking additional Cooper pairs and amplifying the QP population due to the locally reduced excitation gap and enhanced quantum confinement within the vortex core. Here we directly resolve this elusive QP multiplication process by revealing vortex-controlled QP self-generation in a highly nonequilibrium regime preceding the phonon bottleneck of QP relaxation. At sufficiently low fluence, femtosecond-resolved magneto-reflection spectroscopy directly reveals a continuously increasing QP population that is strongly dependent on magnetic-field-tuned vortex density and absent at higher excitation fluences. Quantitative analysis of the emergent QP pre-bottleneck dynamics further reveals that, although the phonon population saturates within $\simeq$10~ps, both free and trapped QPs continue to grow in a self-sustained manner--hallmarks of the long-anticipated QP-vortex interactions in nonequilibrium superconductivity. We estimate a substantial increase of $\sim$34% in QP density at vortex densities of $\sim$ 100 magnetic flux quanta per $\mathrm{μm^{2}}$. Our findings establish a powerful spectroscopic tool for uncovering QP multiplication and reveal vortex-assisted QP relaxation as a critical materials bottleneck whose mitigation will be essential for resolving QP poisoning and enhancing coherence in superconducting qubits.

Park, Joong M. [Ames Lab]↗

From Individuals to Epidemics

Heterogeneous mixing fundamentally changes the dynamics of infectious diseases; finding ways to incorporate it into models represents a critical challenge. Phenomenological approaches are deficient in their lack of attention to underlying processes; individual-based models, on the other hand, may obscure the essential interactions in a sea of detail. The challenge then is to find ways to bridge these levels of description, starting from individual-based models and deriving macroscopic descriptions from them that retain essential detail, and filter out the rest. In this paper, attempts to achieve this transformation are described for a class of models where non-random mixing arises from the spatial localization of interactions. In general, the epidemic threshold is found to be larger owing to spatial localization than for a homogeneous mixing population. An improved estimate of the dynamics is developed by the use of moment equations, and a simple estimate of the threshold in terms of a 'dyad heuristic'. For more general models in which local infection is not described by mass action, the connection with related partial differential equations is investigated.

Levin, Simon A.↗

Urban Air Mobility Airspace Dynamic Density

Airspace safety must be assured for Urban Air Mobility (UAM) to become reality. Emerging operations need to safely integrate with existing and future air traffic. UAM is anticipated to evolve in stages. Early stages, characterized by low-density operations, may be accommodated by traditional air traffic management approaches. However, to enable the scale of UAM operations necessary to reach ubiquitous integration into daily life, new paradigms that utilize collaborative and automated systems are being considered. Correspondingly, traditional approaches for determining a safe number of simultaneous operations in an airspace must be adapted to suit evolving traffic management paradigms. In this paper, we examine dynamic density as an approach to determine when an airspace is excessively populated, and safety may become compromised. We review previous work on dynamic density as it relates to air traffic controller workload and propose factors that may be more fitting for UAMs. Rather than considering controller workload, we propose factors that suggest increased likelihood of loss of separation and may lead to conflicts that require tactical avoidance maneuvers. In addition to monitoring dynamic density for tactical decision making, we endeavor to predict airspace dynamic density with adequate look-ahead to allow for strategic route selection.

UAM↗

Modeling Meteoroid Impacts on the Juno Spacecraft

Events which meet certain criteria from star-tracker images on board the Juno spacecraft have been proposed to be due to interplanetary dust particle impacts on its solar arrays. These events have been suggested to be caused by particles with diameters larger than 10 μm. Here, we compare the reported event rates to expected dust-impact rates using dynamical meteoroid models for the four most abundant meteoroid/dust populations in the inner solar system. We find that the dust-impact rates predicted by dynamical meteoroid models are not compatible with either the Juno observations in terms of the number of star-tracker events per day, or with the variations of dust flux on Juno's solar panels with time and position in the solar system. For example, the rate of star-tracker events on Juno's antisunward surfaces is the largest during a period in which Juno is expected to experience the peak impact fluxes on the opposite, sunward hemisphere. We also investigate the hypothesis of dust leaving the Martian Hill sphere originating either from the surface of Mars itself or from one of its moons. We do not find such a hypothetical source to be able to reproduce the star-tracker event-rate variations observed by Juno. We conclude that the star-tracker events observed by Juno are unlikely to be the result of instantaneous impacts from the zodiacal cloud.

Interplanetary dust↗

Stellar black holes in globular clusters

The recent discovery of large populations of millisec pulsars associated with neutron stars in globular clusters indicates that several hundred stellar black holes of about 10 solar masses each can form within a typical cluster. While, in clusters of high central density, the rapid dynamical evolution of the black-hole population leads to an ejection of nearly all holes on a short timescale, systems of intermediate density may involve a normal star's capture by one of the surviving holes to form a low-mass X-ray binary. One or more such binaries may be found in the globular clusters surrounding our galaxy.

Kulkarni, S. R.↗

The spatial distribution, kinematics, and dynamics of the galaxies in the region of Abell 2634 and 2666

A total of 663 galaxies with known redshifts in a 12 deg x 12 deg field centered on A2634, including 211 new measurements, are used to study in detail the structure of the region. In it we find six main galaxy concentrations: the nearby clusters A2634 and A2666, two groups in the vicinity of A2634, and two distant clusters at approximately 18,000 (A2622) and approximately 37,000 km/s seen in projection near the core of A2634. For A2634, the most richly sampled of those concentrations, we are able to apply strict cluster membership criteria. Two samples - one containing 200 galaxies within 2 deg from the cluster center and a second, magnitude-limited, of 118 galaxies within the central half degree - are used to examine the structure, kinematics, dynamics, and morphological segregation of the cluster. We show that early type galaxies appear to be a relaxed system, while the spiral population eschews the center of the cluster and exhibits both a multimodal velocity distribution and a much larger velocity dispersion that the ellipticals. We propose that the spiral galaxies of A2634 represent a dynamically young cluster population. For the galaxy component of A2634, we find no evidence of significant substructure in the central regions. We also conclude that the adoption of lenient membership criteria that ignore the dynamical complexity of A2634 are unlikely to be responsible for the conflicting results reported on the motion of this cluster with respect ot the CMB. The kinematical and dynamical analysis is extended to A2634's close companion, A2666, and the two distant background clusters.

Scodeggio, Marco↗

Surface Hydroxyls of Imogolite Nanotubes Drive Distinct Structures and Mobility Differentiation of Nanoconfined Water

Abstract Nanoconfined fluids, particularly water, govern subsurface geochemistry, yet the molecular-level mechanisms by which mineral surfaces dictate confined water structure and mobility remain poorly resolved. Here, we combine solution- and solid-state proton (1H) NMR spectroscopy, NMR relaxometry, modulated-gradient spin–echo (MGSE) NMR diffusometry, infrared spectroscopy, and molecular dynamics simulations to demonstrate that surface hydroxyls drive the structural and dynamic differentiation of water in imogolite nanotubes. In saturated suspensions, we observe the coexistence of distinct water 1H environments, each exhibiting significantly reduced mobility, which we attribute to strong interactions with the imogolite surfaces. As more mobile water is removed, long-range water diffusivity in the fibrous solid samples slows to 1.6 × 10–10 m2·s–1 while local fluctuations increase to 3.4 × 10–8 m2·s–1, indicating a significant increase in molecular restriction through surface interactions. Together, our experiments reveal three coexisting populations with varied structures and mobilities, all distinct from liquid bulk water. We resolve a persistent solid-like interfacial layer strongly bound to surface hydroxyls, characterized by an unusually short T2 (<1 ms), and a very close effective 1H–1H distance of ∼1.55 Å between water and the inner-surface silanol group. An inner-core population occupying the inner cavity exhibits an intermediate dynamic regime with restricted axial diffusion, while outer-surface water associated with aluminum hydroxyls retains relatively higher mobility. These results experimentally substantiate a hierarchy of water populations in imogolite and show how surface chemistry dictates the structures and dynamics of confined water.

Fleming, Xander B. [Earth and Environmental Scienc↗

DELVE-ing into the Milky Way’s Globular Clusters: Assessing Extratidal Features in NGC 5897, NGC 7492, and Testing Detectability with Deeper Photometry

Extratidal features around globular clusters (GCs) are tracers of their disruption, stellar stream formation, and their host’s gravitational potential. However, these features remain challenging to detect due to their low surface brightness. We conduct a systematic search for such features around 19 GCs in the DECam Local Volume Exploration (DELVE) survey Data Release 2, discovering a new extra-tidal envelope around NGC 5897 and find tentative evidence for an extended envelope surrounding NGC 7492. Through a combination of dynamical modeling and analyzing synthetic stellar populations, we demonstrate these envelopes may have formed through tidal disruption. We use these models to explore the detectability of these features in the upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), finding that while LSST’s deeper photometry will enhance detection significance, additional methods for foreground removal like proper motions or metallicities may be important for robust stream detection. Our results both add to the sample of globular clusters with extratidal features and provide insights on interpreting similar features in current and upcoming data.

Chiti, A. [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States); S↗

Phobos and deimos: Analysis of surface features, ejecta dynamics and a volatile loss mechanism

The question of whether the crater population on Phobos represents a production population or an equilibrium population is considered. The absolute ages of cratered surfaces are interpreted and analyzed. A computer program was developed to study the dynamics of material ejected from Martian satellites and to investigate the hypothesis that at least some of the extensive set of linear features discovered on the surface of Phobos could be the result of secondary cratering from the Stickney impact. The possibility that Deimos was catastrophically disrupted by a large impact but subsequently reaccreted is considered as well as the probability the Phobos had an impact nearly large enough to disrupt it are also discussed.

Davis, D. R.↗

Starprobe - The science opportunities

The scientific objectives of the NASA Starprobe mission for an unmanned spacecraft to pass within three solar radii of the sun's surface are reviewed. Fundamental observations of gravitation, relativity, and factors related to the solar interior, measurements of the static and dynamic electromagnetic fields and the particle populations close to the sun, and observations of the solar atmosphere from the photosphere to the corona with high spatial resolution would be possible with the Starprobe. A determination of the quadrupole coefficient in the expansion of the gravitational potential field of the sun is noted to be possible by measuring the departure from a Keplerian orbit of the Starprobe as it passes perihelion, yielding data on the rate of revolution of the interior of the sun. Further information on shock acceleration, energy losses, radio bursts, interplanetary propagation, and diffusion will be available at 10-60 solar radii.

Underwood, J. H.↗

The Medium-energy particle analyzer (MEPA) on the AMPTE CCE spacecraft

A major objective in the design of the Charge Composition Explorer (CCE) is related to the measurement of small fluxes of ions (lithium and barium) injected in the solar wind and the deep magnetotail. A second important objective is concerned with the comprehensive measurement of the composition and dynamics of the natural-particle population. The medium-energy particle analyzer (MEPA) in the CCE is designed to cover an energy range which is normally covered by electrostatic analyzers. In order to prevent saturation by the large magnetospheric fluxes of low-energy protons, the MEPA sensor was designed to have a low efficiency for protons, but a high efficiency for the rarer heavier nuclei. The considered aims could be achieved by developing a technology, new to space flight, for measuring energetic ion composition. Particle mass is determined on the basis of the measurement of particle time of flight and total energy.

Mcentire, R. W.↗

The Turbulent Life of Phytoplankton

Phytoplankton is a generic name for photosynthesizing microscopic organisms that inhabit the upper sunlit layer (euphotic zone) of almost all oceans and bodies of freshwater. They are agents for "primary production," the incorporation of carbon from the environment into living organisms, a process that, sustains the aquatic food web. It is estimated that phytoplankton contribute about half of the global primary production, the other half being due to terrestrial plants. By sustaining the aquatic food web and controlling the biogeochemical cycles through primary production, phytoplankton exert a dominant influence on life on earth. Turbulence influences this process in three very important ways. First, essential mineral nutrients are transported from the deeper layers to the euphotic zone through turbulence. Second, turbulence helps to suspend phytoplankton in the euphotic zone since in still water, the phytoplankton, especially the larger species, tend to settle out of the sunlit layers. Third, turbulence transports phytoplankton from the surface to the dark sterile waters, and this is an important mechanism of loss. Thus, stable phytoplankton populations are maintained through a delicate dynamic balance between the processes of turbulence, reproduction, and sinking. The first quantitative model for this was introduced by Riley, Stommel and Bumpus in 1949. This is an attempt to extend their efforts through a combination of analysis and computer simulation in order to better understand the principal qualitative aspects of the physical/biological coupling of this natural system.

S Ghosal↗

Bystander effects in radiation-induced genomic instability

Exposure of GM10115 hamster-human hybrid cells to X-rays can result in the induction of chromosomal instability in the progeny of surviving cells. This instability manifests as the dynamic production of novel sub-populations of cells with unique cytogenetic rearrangements involving the "marker" human chromosome. We have used the comet assay to investigate whether there was an elevated level of endogenous DNA breaks in chromosomally unstable clones that could provide a source for the chromosomal rearrangements and thus account for the persistent instability observed. Our results indicate no significant difference in comet tail measurement between non-irradiated and radiation-induced chromosomally unstable clones. Using two-color fluorescence in situ hybridization we also investigated whether recombinational events involving the interstitial telomere repeat-like sequences in GM10115 cells were involved at frequencies higher than random processes would otherwise predict. Nine of 11 clones demonstrated a significantly higher than expected involvement of these interstitial telomere repeat-like sequences at the recombination junction between the human and hamster chromosomes. Since elevated levels of endogenous breaks were not detected in unstable clones we propose that epigenetic or bystander effects (BSEs) lead to the activation of recombinational pathways that perpetuate the unstable phenotype. Specifically, we expand upon the hypothesis that radiation induces conditions and/or factors that stimulate the production of reactive oxygen species (ROS). These reactive intermediates then contribute to a chronic pro-oxidant environment that cycles over multiple generations, promoting chromosomal recombination and other phenotypes associated with genomic instability.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗