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DOE OSTI2023

Simulation of radioactive plume transport in the atmosphere including dynamics of particle aggregation and breakup

Accurate prediction of the atmospheric transport of debris particles relies heavily on our knowledge of the size distribution of the particles within a debris cloud. Assuming a fixed particle size during simulations is not always viable since the size distribution of the debris can change during transport. Various microphysical processes, such as aggregation and breakup, influence debris particles and dictate any changes to the size distribution. To track those changes that can occur, a population balance model can be adopted and instituted within a model framework. Nonetheless, many of the models that simulate the transport of radioactive debris following a device-driven fission incident have historically neglected to consider these processes. As such, this work describes our effort to develop a modeling framework capable of simulating the transport and deposition of a radioactive plume generated from a fission incident with a dynamic population balance including particle aggregation and breakup. Herein the impact of aggregation and breakup, individually and collectively, on the particle size distribution is explored using the developed framework. When simulating aggregation, for example, six mechanisms, including Brownian coagulation, the convective enhancement to Brownian coagulation, van der Waals-viscous force correction for Brownian coagulation, gravitational collection, turbulent inertial motion, and turbulent shear, are considered. Brownian coagulation and its corrections have, as one would expect, a large impact on relatively small aggregates. Aggregates with a diameter that is less than or equal to 1.0 μm, for instance, comprise 50.6 vol % of all aggregates in the absence of aggregation and 31.2 vol % when Brownian coagulation and its corrections are considered. Gravitational collection and, to a much lesser extent, turbulent shear and turbulent inertial motion are, conversely, of great importance to relatively large aggregates (i.e., diameter greater than 3.0 μm). Additionally, the individual effects of atmospheric and particle parameters, such as wind speed and particle density, are examined. Of the parameters examined, turbulent energy dissipation and aggregate fractal dimension (i.e., aggregate shape with lower values representing more irregular particles) were of substantial importance since both terms directly impact aggregate stability and, by extension, the breakup rate. Large-scale transport and deposition simulations in a dry atmosphere are also presented and discussed as a proof of concept.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2020

National population mapping from sparse survey data: A hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to account for uncertainty

Population estimates are critical for government services, development projects, and public health campaigns. Such data are typically obtained through a national population and housing census. However, population estimates can quickly become inaccurate in localized areas, particularly where migration or displacement has occurred. Some conflict-affected and resource-poor countries have not conducted a census in over 10 y. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate population numbers in small areas based on enumeration data from sample areas and nationwide information about administrative boundaries, building locations, settlement types, and other factors related to population density. We demonstrated this model by estimating population sizes in every 10- m grid cell in Nigeria with national coverage. These gridded population estimates and areal population totals derived from them are accompanied by estimates of uncertainty based on Bayesian posterior probabilities. The model had an overall error rate of 67 people per hectare (mean of absolute residuals) or 43% (using scaled residuals) for predictions in out-of-sample survey areas (approximately 3 ha each), with increased precision expected for aggregated population totals in larger areas. This statistical approach represents a significant step toward estimating populations at high resolution with national coverage in the absence of a complete and recent census, while also providing reliable estimates of uncertainty to support informed decision making.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRS2012

Constraining Gamma-Ray Pulsar Gap Models with a Simulated Pulsar Population

With the large sample of young gamma-ray pulsars discovered by the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT), population synthesis has become a powerful tool for comparing their collective properties with model predictions. We synthesised a pulsar population based on a radio emission model and four gamma-ray gap models (Polar Cap, Slot Gap, Outer Gap, and One Pole Caustic). Applying gamma-ray and radio visibility criteria, we normalise the simulation to the number of detected radio pulsars by a select group of ten radio surveys. The luminosity and the wide beams from the outer gaps can easily account for the number of Fermi detections in 2 years of observations. The wide slot-gap beam requires an increase by a factor of 10 of the predicted luminosity to produce a reasonable number of gamma-ray pulsars. Such large increases in the luminosity may be accommodated by implementing offset polar caps. The narrow polar-cap beams contribute at most only a handful of LAT pulsars. Using standard distributions in birth location and pulsar spin-down power (E), we skew the initial magnetic field and period distributions in a an attempt to account for the high E Fermi pulsars. While we compromise the agreement between simulated and detected distributions of radio pulsars, the simulations fail to reproduce the LAT findings: all models under-predict the number of LAT pulsars with high E , and they cannot explain the high probability of detecting both the radio and gamma-ray beams at high E. The beaming factor remains close to 1.0 over 4 decades in E evolution for the slot gap whereas it significantly decreases with increasing age for the outer gaps. The evolution of the enhanced slot-gap luminosity with E is compatible with the large dispersion of gamma-ray luminosity seen in the LAT data. The stronger evolution predicted for the outer gap, which is linked to the polar cap heating by the return current, is apparently not supported by the LAT data. The LAT sample of gamma-ray pulsars therefore provides a fresh perspective on the early evolution of the luminosity and beam width of the gamma-ray emission from young pulsars, calling for thin and more luminous gaps.

Pierbattista, Marco↗

DOE OSTI2023

Developing an Evolutionary Baseline Model for Humans: Jointly Inferring Purifying Selection with Population History

Building evolutionarily appropriate baseline models for natural populations is not only important for answering fundamental questions in population genetics—including quantifying the relative contributions of adaptive versus nonadaptive processes—but also essential for identifying candidate loci experiencing relatively rare and episodic forms of selection (e.g., positive or balancing selection). Here, a baseline model was developed for a human population of West African ancestry, the Yoruba, comprising processes constantly operating on the genome (i.e., purifying and background selection, population size changes, recombination rate heterogeneity, and gene conversion). Specifically, to perform joint inference of selective effects with demography, an approximate Bayesian approach was employed that utilizes the decay of background selection effects around functional elements, taking into account genomic architecture. This approach inferred a recent 6-fold population growth together with a distribution of fitness effects that is skewed towards effectively neutral mutations. Importantly, these results further suggest that, although strong and/or frequent recurrent positive selection is inconsistent with observed data, weak to moderate positive selection is consistent but unidentifiable if rare.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2017

Anthropometry and Biomechanics Facility Presentation to Open EVA Research Forum

NASA is required to accommodate individuals who fall within a 1st to 99th percentile range on a variety of critical dimensions. The hardware the crew interacts with must therefore be designed and verified to allow these selected individuals to complete critical mission tasks safely and at an optimal performance level. Until now, designers have been provided simpler univariate critical dimensional analyses. The multivariate characteristics of intra-individual and inter-individual size variation must be accounted for, since an individual who is 1st percentile in one body dimension will not be 1st percentile in all other dimensions. A more simplistic approach, assuming every measurement of an individual will fall within the same percentile range, can lead to a model that does not represent realistic members of the population. In other words, there is no '1st percentile female' or '99th percentile male', and designing for these unrealistic body types can lead to hardware issues down the road. Furthermore, due to budget considerations, designers are normally limited to providing only 1 size of a prototype suit, thus requiring other possible means to ensure that a given suit architecture would yield the necessary suit sizes to accommodate the entire user population. Fortunately, modeling tools can be used to more accurately model the types of human body sizes and shapes that will be encountered in a population. Anthropometry toolkits have been designed with a variety of capabilities, including grouping the population into clusters based on critical dimensions, providing percentile information given test subject measurements, and listing measurement ranges for critical dimensions in the 1st-99th percentile range. These toolkits can be combined with full body laser scans to allow designers to build human models that better represent the astronaut population. More recently, some rescaling and reposing capabilities have been developed, to allow reshaping of these static laser scans in more representative postures, such as an abducted shoulder. All of the hardware designed for use with the crew must be sized to accommodate the user population, but the interaction between subject size and hardware fit is complicated with multi-component, complex systems like a space suit. Again, prototype suits are normally only provided in a limited size range, and suited testing is an expensive endeavor; both of these factors limit the number and size of people who can be used to benchmark a spacesuit. However, modeling tools for assessing suit-human interaction can allow potential issues to be modeled and visualized. These types of modeling tools can be used for analysis of a larger combination of anthropometries and hardware types than could feasibly be done with actual human subjects and physical mockups.

Rajulu, Sudhakar↗

NASA NTRS2016

The NuSTAR Extragalactic Surveys: The Number Counts Of Active Galactic Nuclei And The Resolved Fraction Of The Cosmic X-ray Background

We present the 3-8 kiloelectronvolts and 8-24 kiloelectronvolts number counts of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) identified in the Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array (NuSTAR) extragalactic surveys. NuSTAR has now resolved 33 percent -39 percent of the X-ray background in the 8-24 kiloelectronvolts band, directly identifying AGNs with obscuring columns up to approximately 10 (exp 25) per square centimeter. In the softer 3-8 kiloelectronvolts band the number counts are in general agreement with those measured by XMM-Newton and Chandra over the flux range 5 times 10 (exp -15) less than or approximately equal to S (3-8 kiloelectronvolts) divided by ergs per second per square centimeter less than or approximately equal to 10 (exp -12) probed by NuSTAR. In the hard 8-24 kiloelectronvolts band NuSTAR probes fluxes over the range 2 times 10 (exp -14) less than or approximately equal to S (8-24 kiloelectronvolts) divided by ergs per second per square centimeter less than or approximately equal to 10 (exp -12), a factor approximately 100 times fainter than previous measurements. The 8-24 kiloelectronvolts number counts match predictions from AGN population synthesis models, directly confirming the existence of a population of obscured and/or hard X-ray sources inferred from the shape of the integrated cosmic X-ray background. The measured NuSTAR counts lie significantly above simple extrapolation with a Euclidian slope to low flux of the Swift/BAT15-55 kiloelectronvolts number counts measured at higher fluxes (S (15-55 kiloelectronvolts) less than or approximately equal to 10 (exp -11) ergs per second per square centimeter), reflecting the evolution of the AGN population between the Swift/BAT local (redshift is less than 0.1) sample and NuSTAR's redshift approximately equal to 1 sample. CXB (Cosmic X-ray Background) synthesis models, which account for AGN evolution, lie above the Swift/BAT measurements, suggesting that they do not fully capture the evolution of obscured AGNs at low redshifts

nucle↗

NASA NTRS1992

Modeling of asteroidal dust production rates

The production rate of dust associated with the prominent Hirayama asteroid families and the background asteroidal population are modeled with the intent of using the families as a calibrator of mainbelt dust production. However, the dust production rates of asteroid families may be highly stochastic; there is probably more than an order of magnitude variation in the total area of dust associated with a family. Over 4.5 x 10(exp 9) years of collisional evolution, the volume (mass) of a family is ground down by an order of magnitude, suggesting a similar loss from the entire mainbelt population. Our collisional models show that the number of meteoroids deliverable to Earth also varies stochastically, but only by a factor of 2 to 3.

Durda, Daniel D.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Surrogate modelling the Baryonic Universe II: On forward modelling the colours of individual and populations of galaxies

ABSTRACT Among the properties shaping the light of a galaxy, the star formation history (SFH) is one of the most challenging to model due to the variety of correlated physical processes regulating star formation. In this work, we leverage the stellar population synthesis model fsps, together with SFHs predicted by the hydrodynamical simulation IllustrisTNG and the empirical model universemachine, to study the impact of star formation variability on galaxy colours. We start by introducing a model-independent metric to quantify the burstiness of a galaxy formation model, and we use this metric to demonstrate that universemachine predicts SFHs with more burstiness relative to IllustrisTNG. Using this metric and principal component analysis, we construct families of SFH models with adjustable variability, and we show that the precision of broad-band optical and near-infrared colours degrades as the level of unresolved short-term variability increases. We use the same technique to demonstrate that variability in metallicity and dust attenuation presents a practically negligible impact on colours relative to star formation variability. We additionally provide a model-independent fitting function capturing how the level of unresolved star formation variability translates into imprecision in predictions for galaxy colours; our fitting function can be used to determine the minimal SFH model that reproduces colours with some target precision. Finally, we show that modelling the colours of individual galaxies with per cent-level precision demands resorting to complex SFH models, while producing precise colours for galaxy populations can be achieved using models with just a few degrees of freedom.

Chaves-Montero, Jonás (ORCID:0000000295534261)↗

NASA NTRS1988

Models of the quasar population. I - A new luminosity function

A new functional form for the quasar luminosity function is tested using recent observational results for both bright and faint quasar count and redshift distributions. The form is of a fairly general type based on three free parameters and allows for quasars to undergo a combination of luminosity evolution and luminosity-dependent density evolution; an advantage to this approach is that it does not constrain quasars to follow a single type of evolution. Models of pure luminosity evolution or luminosity-dependent density evolution can be constructed, but the apparent magnitude distribution of observed quasars is best fitted by a combination model. The combination model also gives the correct redshift distribution for quasars with redshifts less than three and predicts that quasars brighter than B = 22 provide a 2-10 keV X-ray flux that is equal to 32 percent of the observed X-ray background. However, the model is flawed in that it predicts more high-redshift quasars than are observed.

Heisler, Julia↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian calibration of bubble size dynamics applied to CO 2 gas fermenters

To accelerate the scale-up of gaseous CO 2 fermentation reactors, computational models need to predict gas-to-liquid mass transfer which requires capturing the bubble size dynamics, i.e. bubble breakup and coalescence. However, the applicability of existing models beyond air–water mixtures remains to be established. Here, an inverse modeling approach, accelerated with a neural network surrogate, calibrates the breakup and coalescence closure models, that are used in class methods for population balance modeling (PBM). The calibration is performed based on experimental results obtained in a CO 2 -air–water-coflowing bubble column reactor. Bayesian inference is used to account for noise in the experimental dataset and bias in the simulation results. To accurately capture gas holdup and interphase mass transfer, the results show that the breakage rate needs to be increased by one order of magnitude. In conclusion, the inferred model parameters are then used on a separate configuration and shown to also improve bubble size distribution predictions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS2013

Modeling the Redshift Evolution of the Normal Galaxy X-Ray Luminosity Function

Emission from X-ray binaries (XRBs) is a major component of the total X-ray luminosity of normal galaxies, so X-ray studies of high-redshift galaxies allow us to probe the formation and evolution of XRBs on very long timescales (approximately 10 Gyr). In this paper, we present results from large-scale population synthesis models of binary populations in galaxies from z = 0 to approximately 20. We use as input into our modeling the Millennium II Cosmological Simulation and the updated semi-analytic galaxy catalog by Guo et al. to self-consistently account for the star formation history (SFH) and metallicity evolution of each galaxy. We run a grid of 192 models, varying all the parameters known from previous studies to affect the evolution of XRBs. We use our models and observationally derived prescriptions for hot gas emission to create theoretical galaxy X-ray luminosity functions (XLFs) for several redshift bins. Models with low common envelope efficiencies, a 50% twins mass ratio distribution, a steeper initial mass function exponent, and high stellar wind mass-loss rates best match observational results from Tzanavaris & Georgantopoulos, though they significantly underproduce bright early-type and very bright (L(sub x) greater than 10(exp 41)) late-type galaxies. These discrepancies are likely caused by uncertainties in hot gas emission and SFHs, active galactic nucleus contamination, and a lack of dynamically formed low-mass XRBs. In our highest likelihood models, we find that hot gas emission dominates the emission for most bright galaxies. We also find that the evolution of the normal galaxy X-ray luminosity density out to z = 4 is driven largely by XRBs in galaxies with X-ray luminosities between 10(exp 40) and 10(exp 41) erg s(exp −1).

Tremmel, M.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Astronaut Bone Medical Standards Derived from Finite Element (FE) Models of QCT Scans from Population Studies

This work was accomplished in support of the Finite Element [FE] Strength Task Group, NASA Johnson Space Center [JSC], Houston, TX. This group was charged with the task of developing rules for using finite-element [FE] bone-strength measures to construct operating bands for bone health that are relevant to astronauts following exposure to spaceflight. FE modeling is a computational tool used by engineers to estimate the failure loads of complex structures. Recently, some engineers have used this tool to characterize the failure loads of the hip in population studies that also monitored fracture outcomes. A Directed Research Task was authorized in July, 2012 to investigate FE data from these population studies to derive these proposed standards of bone health as a function of age and gender. The proposed standards make use of an FE-based index that integrates multiple contributors to bone strength, an expanded evaluation that is critical after an astronaut is exposed to spaceflight. The current index of bone health used by NASA is the measurement of areal BMD. There was a concern voiced by a research and clinical advisory panel that the sole use of areal BMD would be insufficient to fully evaluate the effects of spaceflight on the hip. Hence, NASA may not have a full understanding of fracture risk, both during and after a mission, and may be poorly estimating in-flight countermeasure efficacy. The FE Strength Task Group - composed of principal investigators of the aforementioned population studies and of FE modelers -donated some of its population QCT data to estimate of hip bone strength by FE modeling for this specific purpose. Consequently, Human Health Countermeasures [HHC] has compiled a dataset of FE hip strengths, generated by a single FE modeling approach, from human subjects (approx.1060) with ages covering the age range of the astronauts. The dataset has been analyzed to generate a set of FE strength cutoffs for the following scenarios: a) Qualify an applicant for astronaut candidacy, b) Qualify an astronaut for a long-duration (LD) mission, c) Qualify a veteran LD astronaut for a second LD mission, and d) Establish a non-permissible, minimum hip strength following a given mission architecture. This abstract will present the FE-based standards accepted by the FE Strength Task Group for its recommendation to HHC in January 2015.

Sibonga, J. D.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Meteorological limits on the growth and development of screwworm populations

A program to evaluate the use of remotely sensed data as an additional tool in existing and projected efforts to eradicate the screwworm began in 1973. Estimating weather conditions by use of remotely sensed data was part of the study. Next, the effect of weather on screwworm populations was modeled. A significant portion of the variation in screwworm population growth and development has been traced to weather-related parameters. This report deals with the salient points of the weather and the screwworm population interaction.

Phinney, D. E.↗

NASA NTRS1994

A bounce-averaged kinetic model of the ring current ion population

A bounced-averaged ring current kinetic model for arbitrary pitch angle, including losses due to charge exchange and Coulomb collisions along ion drift paths, is developed and solved numerically. Results from simplifield model runs, intended to illustrate the effects of adiabatic drifts and collisional losses on the proton population, are presented. The processes of: (1) particle acceleration under the conditions of time-independent magnetospheric electric fields; (2) a predominant loss of particles with small pitch angles due to charge exchange; and (3) a buildup of a low-energy population caused by the Coulomb drag energy degradation, are discussed.

Jordanova, V. K.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Behavioral and Population Data-Driven Distribution System Load Modeling

Distribution system residential load modeling and analysis for different geographic areas within a utility or an independent system operator territory are critical for enabling small-scale, aggregated distributed energy resources to participate in grid services under Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Order No. 2222 [1]. In this study, we develop a methodology of modeling residential load profiles in different geographic areas with a focus on human behavior impact. First, we construct a behavior-based load profile model leveraging state-of-the-art appliance models. We simulate human activity and occupancy using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods calibrated with the American Time Use Survey data set. Second, we link our model with cleaned Current Population Survey data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Finally, we populate two sets of 500 households using California and Texas census data, respectively, to perform an initial analysis of the load in different geographic areas with various group features (e.g., different income levels). To distinguish the effect of population behavior differences on aggregated load, we simulate load profiles for both sets assuming fixed physical household parameters and weather data. Analysis shows that average daily load profiles vary significantly by income and income dependency varies by locality.

American Time Use Survey↗

NASA NTRS1982

Continued research on selected parameters to minimize community annoyance from airport noise

A mathematical model of the annoyance created at an airport by aircraft operations is developed. The model incorporates population distribution considerations around an airport and the annoyance caused by aircraft noise. The objective function of this model corresponds to seeking to minimize total population annoyance created by all aircraft operations in a 24-hour period. Several factors are included in this model as constraint bounded. Demand for flight services is incorporated by including lower bounds on the number of operations by type of aircraft, runway used and time period. Also upper bounds on the number of operations for each runway are included. The mathematical model as formulated is recognized as corresponding to a nonlinear integer mathematical programming problem.

Frair, L.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Is the kinematically distinct core in NGC 5982 necessarily the remnant of an accreted companion?

NGC 5982 is an elliptical galaxy with a 'kinematically distinct core' whose projected rotation axis is about 90 deg away from that of the galaxy's outer parts. Distinct cores in other ellipticals have been attributed to dynamically distinct subsystems that are the remnants of accreted companions. Here, a model for NGC 5982 is presented in which the kinematic twist in the core results simply from the projection of the major families of circulating orbits in a triaxial potential. Orbits in the model are populated smoothly, and the core is not a dynamical subsystem. The model predicts a complicated overall velocity field for the galaxy, with particularly low velocity amplitudes (15 km/s or less) along a direction 150 deg counterclockwise from the major axis, a direction not yet observed spectroscopically.

Statler, Thomas S.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Modeling of collision and coalescence of droplets during microgravity processing of Zn-Bi immiscible alloys

A population balance model is presented for the coarsening of the dispersed phase of liquid-liquid two-phase mixtures in microgravity due to gravity sedimentation and Marangoni migration, which lead to the collision and coalescence of droplets. The model is used to predict the evolution of the size distribution of the dispersed phase in a liquid-phase miscibility gap system, Zn-Bi, which has been used in a number of experimental microgravity processing studies in which significant phase segregation has been observed. The analysis shows that increasing the temperature gradient, gravity level, volume fraction of the dispersed phase, initial average drop radius, initial standard deviation of droplet radii, or the temperature coefficient of the interfacial tension leads to an increase in the rate of droplet growth due to collision and coalescence. Comparison of the distribution evolutions for unimodal and bimodal initial distributions shows that the latter yield significantly more rapid droplet growth. Finally, it is shown that droplet growth can be dramatically reduced with antiparallel orientation of the gravity vector and the temperature gradient, provided that the relative magnitude of these two vectors is properly chosen.

Davis, R. H.↗