Monodisperse Aerosol Generator for Field Calibration of Atmospheric Measurement Instrumentation
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47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
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Unsupervised discovery of extreme weather events using universal representations of emergent organization
Spontaneous self-organization is ubiquitous in systems far from thermodynamic equilibrium. While organized structures that emerge dominate transport properties, universal representations that identify and describe these key objects remain elusive. Here, we introduce a theoretically grounded framework for describing emergent organization that, via data-driven algorithms, is constructive in practice. Its building blocks are spacetime lightcones that embody how information propagates across a system through local interactions. We show that predictive equivalence classes of lightcones—local causal states—capture organized behaviors in complex spatiotemporal systems. Employing an unsupervised physics-informed machine learning algorithm and a high-performance computing implementation, we demonstrate automatically discovering organized structures in two real-world domain science problems. We show that local causal states identify vortices and track their power-law decay behavior in two-dimensional fluid turbulence. We then show how to detect and track familiar extreme weather events—hurricanes and atmospheric rivers—and discover other novel structures associated with precipitation extremes in high-resolution climate data at the grid-cell level.
Rupe, Adam [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory ↗
Evidential Deep Learning: Enhancing Predictive Uncertainty Estimation for Earth System Science Applications
Abstract Robust quantification of predictive uncertainty is a critical addition needed for machine learning applied to weather and climate problems to improve the understanding of what is driving prediction sensitivity. Ensembles of machine learning models provide predictive uncertainty estimates in a conceptually simple way but require multiple models for training and prediction, increasing computational cost and latency. Parametric deep learning can estimate uncertainty with one model by predicting the parameters of a probability distribution but does not account for epistemic uncertainty. Evidential deep learning, a technique that extends parametric deep learning to higher-order distributions, can account for both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties with one model. This study compares the uncertainty derived from evidential neural networks to that obtained from ensembles. Through applications of the classification of winter precipitation type and regression of surface-layer fluxes, we show evidential deep learning models attaining predictive accuracy rivaling standard methods while robustly quantifying both sources of uncertainty. We evaluate the uncertainty in terms of how well the predictions are calibrated and how well the uncertainty correlates with prediction error. Analyses of uncertainty in the context of the inputs reveal sensitivities to underlying meteorological processes, facilitating interpretation of the models. The conceptual simplicity, interpretability, and computational efficiency of evidential neural networks make them highly extensible, offering a promising approach for reliable and practical uncertainty quantification in Earth system science modeling. To encourage broader adoption of evidential deep learning, we have developed a new Python package, Machine Integration and Learning for Earth Systems (MILES) group Generalized Uncertainty for Earth System Science (GUESS) (MILES-GUESS) ( https://github.com/ai2es/miles-guess ), that enables users to train and evaluate both evidential and ensemble deep learning. Significance Statement This study demonstrates a new technique, evidential deep learning, for robust and computationally efficient uncertainty quantification in modeling the Earth system. The method integrates probabilistic principles into deep neural networks, enabling the estimation of both aleatoric uncertainty from noisy data and epistemic uncertainty from model limitations using a single model. Our analyses reveal how decomposing these uncertainties provides valuable insights into reliability, accuracy, and model shortcomings. We show that the approach can rival standard methods in classification and regression tasks within atmospheric science while offering practical advantages such as computational efficiency. With further advances, evidential networks have the potential to enhance risk assessment and decision-making across meteorology by improving uncertainty quantification, a longstanding challenge. This work establishes a strong foundation and motivation for the broader adoption of evidential learning, where properly quantifying uncertainties is critical yet lacking.
Schreck, John S.↗
Projected regional changes in mean and extreme precipitation over Africa in CMIP6 models
Precipitation plays a crucial role in Africa's agriculture, water resources, and economic stability, and assessing its potential changes under future warming is important. In this study, we demonstrate that the latest generation of coupled climate models (CMIP6) robustly project substantial wetting over western, central, and eastern Africa. In contrast, southern Africa and Madagascar tend toward future drying. Under shared socioeconomic pathways (defined by Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), our results suggest that most parts of Africa, except for southern Africa and Madagascar, will experience very wet years five times more often in 2050–2100, according to the multi-model median. Conversely, southern Africa and Madagascar will experience very dry years twice as often by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, we find that the increasing risk of extreme annual rainfall is accompanied by a shift toward days with heavier rainfall. Our findings provide important insights into inter-hemispheric changes in precipitation characteristics under future warming and underscore the need for serious mitigation and adaptation strategies.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Evaluating downscaled products with expected hydroclimatic co-variances
Abstract. There has been widespread adoption of downscaled products amongst practitioners and stakeholders to ascertain risk from climate hazards at the local scale (e.g., ∼ 5 km resolution). Such products must nevertheless be consistent with physical laws to be credible and of value to users. Here we evaluate statistically and dynamically downscaled products by examining local co-evolution of downscaled temperature and precipitation during convective and frontal precipitation events (two mechanisms testable with just temperature and precipitation). We find that two widely used statistical downscaling techniques (Localized Constructed Analogs version 2, LOCA2, and Seasonal Trends and Analysis of Residuals Empirical Statistical Downscaling Model, STAR-ESDM) generally preserve expected co-variances during convective precipitation events over the historical and future projected intervals as compared to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) and two observation-based data products (Livneh and nClimGrid-Daily). However, both techniques dampen future intensification of frontal precipitation that is otherwise robustly captured in global climate models (i.e., prior to downscaling) and with process-based dynamical downscaling across five different regional climate models. In the case of LOCA2, this leads to appreciable underestimation of future frontal precipitation event intensity. This study is one of the first to quantify a likely ramification of the stationarity assumption underlying statistical downscaling methods and identify a phenomenon where projections of future change diverge depending on data production method employed. Finally, our work proposes expected co-variances during convective and frontal precipitation as useful evaluation diagnostics that can be universally applied to a wide range of statistically downscaled products.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Bimodality in simulated precipitation frequency distributions and its relationship with convective parameterizations
Abstract Bimodality in precipitation frequency distributions is often evident in atmospheric models, but rarely in observations. This study i) proposes a metric to objectively quantify the bimodality in precipitation distributions, ii) evaluates model simulations contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5), phase 6 (CMIP6), and the DYnamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domains (DYAMOND) project by comparing them to satellite-based and reanalysis precipitation products, and iii) investigates possible origins of bimodal precipitation distributions. Our results reveal that about 83% (20 out of 24) of CMIP5 and 70% (21 out of 30) of CMIP6 models used in this study exhibit bimodal distributions. The few DYAMOND models that use a deep convective parameterization also show bimodal distributions, while most DYAMOND models do not. Predictably, the bimodality originates from the separation of precipitation process between resolved grid-scale and parameterized subgrid-scale. However, in a larger number of models bimodality arises from the parameterized subgrid-scale convective precipitation alone.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Blodgett 13C–labeled litter incubation 2016-2019
The dataset is from 13C-labelled (stable isotope of carbon) root-litter in-situ field incubation experiment based on the whole-soil warming experiment at the Blodgett Forest Research Station, CA, USA. The files are in both ".csv" and ".xlsx" versions, and can be opened in "maCOS numbers", and "Microsoft Excel". The files includes several sheets with all the data published in the paper: Sun, B., Zosso, C., Wiesenberg, G. L. B., Pegoraro, E., Torn, M. S., and Schmidt, M. W. I.: Warming accelerates the decomposition of root-derived hydrolysable lipids in a temperate forest and is depth- and compound class-dependent, SOIL, 11, 1077–1093, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-11-1077-2025, 2025. This dataset includes bulk soil carbon, nitrogen, delta 13C values, the normalized concentration (to organic carbon) of hydrolysable lipids identified, the absolute concentration (normalized to bulk soil) of hydrolysable lipids, hydrolysable lipids recovery, and weighted 13C-excess of bulk soil carbon, and weighted 13C-excess of each compound class in hydrolysable lipids. These data aim to answer two research questions: 1) How will warming affect the decomposition of 13C-labelled root-litter at different depth? 2) Will the decomposition of root-derived hydrolysable lipids under warming differ among different compound classes? The experiment sites located on the foothills of the Sierra Nevada near Georgetown, CA (120°3904000W; 38°5404300 N) at 1370m above see level. The Blodgett Forest is a mixed-coniferous forest. The site has a Mediterranean climate with a mean annual air temperature of 12.5 °C and a mean annual precipitation of 1774mm.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Strength stability at high temperatures for additively manufactured alumina forming austenitic alloy
Several fast-spectrum nuclear reactors designed to generate high power (~450 MWe) rely on forced convection of media such as supercritical CO 2 , sodium, or liquid lead to cool the nuclear core, operating at temperatures up to 600 °C. Cost-effective, high-strength Fe-based alumina forming austenitic (AFA) alloys are a promising candidate for the fabrication of critical nuclear components. This study investigated laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) processing of an AFA alloy composition optimized for improved creep resistance. Electron microscopy revealed an elongated grain structure along the build direction with a fine sub-grain cellular structure decorated with (Cr,Fe,Nb) 23 C 6 carbide precipitates at the intercellular boundaries. Finally, at temperatures of 20–900 °C, the LPBF alloy's superior tensile properties compared to its arc-melted counterpart and other advanced steels (e.g., SS316) were attributed to the distribution of nano-sized carbide precipitates, whereas the high ductility was attributed to the LPBF alloy's elongated grain structure.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NitroNet: Smart System to Quantify Nitrous Oxide Emissions
Agricultural croplands are the largest anthropogenic source of nitrous oxide (N 2 O), the third most important greenhouse gas. Emissions are characterized by “hot spots” and “hot moments”, meaning emissions are highly heterogeneous in space and time. Emissions are driven by nitrification and denitrification processes which depend upon complex factors such as soil characteristics (type, compaction, pH, moisture, topography), management practices (fertilizer type and application, tillage, crop type, field history, irrigation), biogeochemistry (organic carbon, microbial composition), and meteorology (precipitation, temperature, and wind). For these reasons, quantifying cropland emissions by either measurements or modeling is extremely challenging with large uncertainties.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Exploring ship track spreading rates with a physics-informed Langevin particle parameterization
Abstract. The rate at which aerosols spread from a point source injection, such as from a ship or other stationary pollution source, is critical for accurately representing subgrid plume spreading in a climate model. Such climate model results will guide future decisions regarding the feasibility and application of large-scale intentional marine cloud brightening (MCB). Prior modeling studies have shown that the rate at which ship plumes spread may be strongly dependent on meteorological conditions, such as precipitating versus non-precipitating boundary layers and shear. In this study, we apply a Lagrangian particle model (PM-ABL v1.0), governed by a Langevin stochastic differential equation, to create a simplified framework for predicting the rate of spreading from a ship-injected aerosol plume in sheared, precipitating, and non-precipitating boundary layers. The velocity and position of each stochastic particle is predicted with the acceleration of each particle being driven by the turbulent kinetic energy, dissipation rate, momentum variance, and mean wind. These inputs to the stochastic particle velocity equation are derived from high-fidelity large-eddy simulations (LES) equipped with a prognostic aerosol–cloud microphysics scheme (UW-SAM) to simulate an aerosol injection from a ship into a cloud-topped marine boundary layer. The resulting spreading rate from the reduced-order stochastic model is then compared to the spreading rate in the LES. The stochastic particle velocity representation is shown to reasonably reproduce spreading rates in sheared, precipitating, and non-precipitating cases using domain-averaged turbulent statistics from the LES.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Uncertainty in California winter precipitation linked to future projections of North Pacific large-scale atmospheric circulation
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Environmental sciences↗
Microstructural evolution in a precipitate-hardened (Fe 0.3 Ni 0.3 Mn 0.3 Cr 0.1 ) 94 Ti 2 Al 4 multi-principal element alloy during high-pressure torsion
Multi-principal element alloys demonstrate high strength, thermal stability, and irradiation resistance, making them excellent candidate materials for applications in nuclear reactors and other harsh environments. Some studies have examined the use of high-pressure torsion to strengthen MPEAs through grain size reduction and strain hardening. However, no studies have investigated the effect of HPT on secondary phases (precipitates) within an MPEA. Two alloys, (Fe 0.3 Ni 0.3 Mn 0.3 Cr 0.1 ) 94 Ti 2 Al 4 containing Ni(Ti, Al) B2 phase, and CrFe σ phase, and single-phase Fe 0.3 Ni 0.3 Mn 0.3 Cr 0.1 , were fabricated by casting and heat treatment. Both alloys were then processed with HPT to study microstructural evolution. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) were used to characterize the alloys before and after HPT processing. HPT processing produced a nanocrystalline structure in both alloys, but (Fe 0.3 Ni 0.3 Mn 0.3 Cr 0.1 ) 94 Ti 2 Al 4 exhibited a significantly smaller grain size and higher dislocation density than Fe 0.3 Ni 0.3 Mn 0.3 Cr 0.1 , with corresponding higher hardness. Before HPT, the (Fe 0.3 Ni 0.3 Mn 0.3 Cr 0.1 ) 94 Ti 2 Al 4 alloy consisted of large grain (~ 400 μm) and precipitates, including B2 of ~ 38 μm average size, B2 of ~ 0.7 μm average size, and small amounts of σ of ~ 1.5 μm average size. After HPT, the larger B2 precipitates were decreased in size and volume fraction, while the smaller B2 precipitates were completely dissolved; the σ precipitates appeared unaffected by HPT, likely due to their much higher hardness. Finally, observation of the B2 precipitate distribution along radial distance indicates that the strain caused the precipitates to fracture at intermediate strain (γ = 125) and dissolve at high strain (γ = 280).
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Monte Carlo Simulations of 347H Stainless Steel Aging for the Synthetic Generation of Microstructures Under Creep Conditions
Here, a Monte Carlo simulation method capable of replicating the kinetics of M 23 C 6 precipitation in 347H stainless steels was developed for the purpose of producing synthetic microstructures that approximate its microstructural evolution under aging periods of up to 10,000 hours at temperatures between 600 °C and 750 °C. To accomplish this, experimental data from the literature was used to parameterize simulations and replicate the nucleation and growth kinetics of M 23 C 6 particles within 347H and similar austenitic stainless steel alloys. These simulations were found to have considerable fidelity to previous efforts to study the precipitation of M 23 C 6 in other 300 series stainless steel alloys. Synthetic 347H microstructures were then generated that accounted the effects of aging temperature, duration, dislocation density, and the presence of boron within the microstructure. These simulations predict several key trends, those being that (1) the size of M 23 C 6 precipitates decreased with aging temperature and (2) the growth rate of M 23 C 6 particles decreased with aging temperature. Further, while (3) the addition of dislocation density due to creep conditions resulted in increasing intragranular nucleation of M 23 C 6 precipitates with increasing dislocation density and (4) B additions within the microstructure led to modest increases in precipitate size above 700 °C, which indicates that more complex physics are necessary to account for the presence of B.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Effect of Rocky Mountains and Tibetan Plateau 1998 Spring Land Temperature on N. American and East Asian Summer Precipitation Anomalies
This work follows up on the GEWEX/LS4P Phase I (LS4P-I) experiments, a community effort highlighting the spring land surface temperature anomalies in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) as a useful source for subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction of summer precipitation in global hot spot regions, particularly in East Asia and North America. This paper extends the investigation to both the US Rocky Mountain (RM) region and the TP, considering the 1998 summer drought/flood event in North America/East Asia, respectively, as a case study. A previously developed initialization method for land surface temperature/subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) is used in the NCEP Global Forecast System, coupled with a land model, SSiB2 (GFS/SSiB2), to produce observed RM cold May temperature anomaly. Forward simulation yields June precipitation anomalies at five remote locations. Likewise, the TP warm May temperature anomaly also produces June precipitation anomalies at these five locations. The effects of RM (cold) and TP (warm) temperature anomalies are consistent in the US South Coastal regions and the south Yangtze River Basin, yielding 49% (42%) of observed drought and 34% (44%) of observed flood, respectively. These LST/SUBT effects in RM and TP induce a global large-scale wave train linking North America with the TP, affecting the subtropical westerly jet and thereby modulating summer precipitation. Global SST effect is examined for comparison but does not yield statistically significant June precipitation anomalies in GFS/SSiB2. Furthermore, this study adds to evidence that high-mountain LST effects in the RM and TP are first-order sources of S2S precipitation predictability in summer months.
Nayak, Hara Prasad [University of California, Los ↗
In-service Oxidation and IASCC in High Fluence Baffle-Former Bolts Retrieved from a Westinghouse PWR
Baffle-former bolts (BFBs) are subjected to significant mechanical stress and neutron irradiation from the reactor core during the plant operation. Over the long operation period, these conditions lead to potential degradation and reduced load-carrying capacity of the bolts, and life extension of existing pressurized water reactors (PWRs) would only cause more damage to the bolt material. To this end, the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program Materials Research Pathway (MRP) successfully harvested two high fluence BFBs from a Westinghouse two-loop downflow type PWR in 2016. In the same year, the two BFBs were received at the Westinghouse Churchill facility for inspection and specimen fabrication. The fabrication was completed in 2017 with specimens shipped to Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for further testing. The objective of this project is to provide information that is integral to evaluating end of life microstructure and properties as a benchmark of international models developed for predicting radiation-induced swelling, segregation, precipitation, mechanical property degradation, and with the latest findings, susceptibility to irradiation-assisted stress corrosion cracking (IASCC).
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
A mixture of grass–legume cover crop species may ameliorate water stress in a changing climate
Climate change models predict increasing precipitation variability in the mid-latitude regions of Earth, generating a need to reduce the negative impacts of these changes on crop production. Despite considerable research on how cover crops support agriculture in a changing climate, understanding is limited of how climate change influences the growth of cover crops. We investigated the early development of two common cover crop species—crimson clover (Trifolium incarnatum) and rye (Secale cereale)—and hypothesized that growing them in the mixture would ameliorate stress from drought or waterlogging. This hypothesis was tested in a 25-day greenhouse experiment, where the two factors (species number and water stress) were fully crossed in randomized blocks, and plant responses were quantified through survival, growth rate, biomass production and root morphology. Water stress negatively influenced the early growth of these two species in contrasting ways: crimson clover was susceptible to drought while rye performed poorly under waterlogging. Per-plant biomass in rye was always greater in mixture than in monoculture, while per-plant biomass of crimson clover was greater in mixture under drought. Both species grew longer roots in mixture than in monoculture under drought, and total biomass of mixtures did not differ significantly from the more-productive monoculture (rye) in any water condition. In the face of increasingly variable precipitation, growing crimson clover and rye together has potential to ameliorate water stress, a possibility that should be further investigated in field experiments.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Pathways for Nucleation and Growth in Confined Spaces and at Interfaces
Mineral crystallization is central to myriad natural processes from the formation of snowflakes to stalagmites, but the molecular-scale mechanisms are often far more complex than models reflect. Feedbacks between the hydro-, bio-, and geo-spheres drive complex crystallization processes that challenge our ability to observe and quantify them, motivating an expansion of crystallization theories. Here, in this article, we discuss how the driving forces and timescales of nucleation are influenced by factors ranging from simple geometric confinement to distinct interfacial solution structures involving solvent organization, electrical double layers, and surface charging effects. Taken together, these ubiquitous natural phenomena can preserve metastable intermediates, drive precipitation of undersaturated phases, and modulate crystallization in time and space.
biosphere↗