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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Data‐Driven Predictions of Peak Warming Under Rapid Decarbonization

Abstract The severe impacts associated with recent record‐setting annual global temperatures elevate the need to accurately predict the hottest conditions that could occur even if the most ambitious decarbonization goals are achieved. We use convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to predict peak global warming from recent observed temperature maps and future cumulative CO 2 emissions. For the SSP1‐1.9 decarbonization scenario there is >99% probability that mean global warming exceeds 1.5°C, approximately even odds that it reaches 2°C, and ∼90% probability that the hottest year globally exceeds 2023 by at least 0.5°C. Further, for the SSP2‐4.5 decarbonization scenario, there is >90% probability that the hottest annual global temperature anomaly is twice the 2023 anomaly. That our framework makes highly accurate out‐of‐sample predictions of the hottest historical year provides confidence in the predicted future probabilities, suggesting substantial risks from the extreme local conditions that are likely to result from globally hot years during rapid decarbonization.

Diffenbaugh, Noah S. [Doerr School of Sustainabili↗
DOE OSTI2024

Photoinduced hydrogen dissociation in thymine predicted by coupled cluster theory

The fate of thymine upon excitation by ultraviolet radiation has been the subject of intense debate. Today, it is widely believed that its ultrafast excited state gas phase decay stems from a radiationless transition from the bright ππ* state to a dark nπ* state. However, conflicting theoretical predictions have made the experimental data difficult to interpret. Here we simulate the early gas phase ultrafast dynamics in thymine at the highest level of theory to date. This is made possible by performing wavepacket dynamics with a recently developed coupled cluster method. Our simulation confirms an ultrafast ππ* to nπ* transition (τ = 41 ± 14 fs). Furthermore, the predicted oxygen-edge X-ray absorption spectra agree quantitatively with experiment. We also predict an as-yet uncharacterized πσ* channel that leads to hydrogen dissociation at one of the two N-H bonds. Similar behavior has been identified in other heteroaromatic compounds, including adenine, and several authors have speculated that a similar pathway may exist in thymine. However, this was never confirmed theoretically or experimentally. This prediction calls for renewed efforts to experimentally identify or exclude the presence of this channel.

Kjønstad, Eirik F.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Automatic speech recognition predicts contemporaneous earthquake fault displacement

Abstract Significant progress has been made in probing the state of an earthquake fault by applying machine learning to continuous seismic waveforms. The breakthroughs were originally obtained from laboratory shear experiments and numerical simulations of fault shear, then successfully extended to slow-slipping faults. Here we apply the Wav2Vec-2.0 self-supervised framework for automatic speech recognition to continuous seismic signals emanating from a sequence of moderate magnitude earthquakes during the 2018 caldera collapse at the Kīlauea volcano on the island of Hawai’i. We pre-train the Wav2Vec-2.0 model using caldera seismic waveforms and augment the model architecture to predict contemporaneous surface displacement during the caldera collapse sequence, a proxy for fault displacement. We find the model displacement predictions to be excellent. The model is adapted for near-future prediction information and found hints of prediction capability, but the results are not robust. The results demonstrate that earthquake faults emit seismic signatures in a similar manner to laboratory and numerical simulation faults, and artificial intelligence models developed for encoding audio of speech may have important applications in studying active fault zones.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cross-scale covariance for material property prediction

A simulation can stand its ground against an experiment only if its prediction uncertainty is known. The unknown accuracy of interatomic potentials (IPs) is a major source of prediction uncertainty, severely limiting the use of large-scale classical atomistic simulations in a wide range of scientific and engineering applications. Here we explore covariance between predictions of metal plasticity, from 178 large-scale (~10 8 atoms) molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, and a variety of indicator properties computed at small-scales (≤10 2 atoms). All simulations use the same 178 IPs. In a manner similar to statistical studies in public health, we analyze correlations of strength with indicators, identify the best predictor properties, and build a cross-scale “strength-on-predictors” regression model. This model is then used to estimate regression error over the statistical pool of IPs. Small-scale predictors found to be highly covariant with strength are computed using expensive quantum-accurate calculations and used to predict flow strength, within the statistical error bounds established in our study.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

SA-GAT-SR: self-adaptable graph attention networks with symbolic regression for high-fidelity material property prediction

Recent advances in machine learning have demonstrated an enormous utility of deep learning approaches, particularly Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) for materials science. These methods have emerged as powerful tools for high-throughput prediction of material properties, offering a compelling enhancement and alternative to traditional first-principles calculations. While the community has predominantly focused on developing increasingly complex and universal models to enhance predictive accuracy, such approaches often lack physical interpretability and insights into materials behavior. Here, we introduce a novel computational paradigm—Self-Adaptable Graph Attention Networks integrated with Symbolic Regression (SA-GAT-SR)—that synergistically combines the predictive capability of GNNs with the interpretative power of symbolic regression. Our framework employs a self-adaptable encoding algorithm that automatically identifies and adjust attention weights so as to screen critical features from an expansive 180-dimensional feature space while maintaining O(n) computational scaling. The integrated SR module subsequently distills these features into compact analytical expressions that explicitly reveal quantum-mechanically meaningful relationships, achieving 23 × acceleration compared to conventional SR implementations that heavily rely on first-principle calculations-derived features as input. This work suggests a new framework in computational materials science, bridging the gap between predictive accuracy and physical interpretability, offering valuable physical insights into material behavior.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

RNA-Puzzles Round V: blind predictions of 23 RNA structures

RNA-Puzzles is a collective endeavor dedicated to the advancement and improvement of RNA three-dimensional structure prediction. With agreement from structural biologists, RNA structures are predicted by modeling groups before publication of the experimental structures. We report a large-scale set of predictions by 18 groups for 23 RNA-Puzzles: 4 RNA elements, 2 Aptamers, 4 Viral elements, 5 Ribozymes and 8 Riboswitches. We describe automatic assessment protocols for comparisons between prediction and experiment. Our analyses reveal some critical steps to be overcome to achieve good accuracy in modeling RNA structures: identification of helix-forming pairs and of non-Watson–Crick modules, correct coaxial stacking between helices and avoidance of entanglements. Three of the top four modeling groups in this round also ranked among the top four in the CASP15 contest.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of BiS2-type pnictogen dichalcogenide monolayers for optoelectronics

Abstract In this work, we introduce a 2D materials family with chemical formula MX 2 (M={As, Sb, Bi} and X={S, Se, Te}) having a rectangular 2D lattice. This materials family has been predicted by systematic ab-initio structure search calculations in two dimensions. Using density-functional theory and many-body perturbation theory, we study the structural, vibrational, electronic, optical, and excitonic properties of the predicted MX 2 family. Our calculations reveal that the predicted SbX 2 and BiX 2 monolayers are stable while the AsX 2 layers exhibit an in-plane ferroelectric instability. All materials display strong excitonic effects and good optical absorption within the infrared-to-visible range. Hence, these monolayers can harvest solar energy and serve in optoelectronics applications. Furthermore, our results indicate that exfoliation of the predicted MX 2 monolayers from their bulk counterparts is experimentally viable.

Materials Science↗
DOE OSTI2026

A human-in-the-loop explanation framework for morphologically transparent AI predictions from whole-slide images

Deep learning models enable the prediction of clinical endpoints from whole-slide images (WSIs), but many such models function as “black boxes”, lacking transparency about whether and which histomorphological patterns drive their predictions, hindering interpretability and clinical adoption. Here we propose a human-in-the-loop explanation framework, MorphoXAI, which provides both local and global interpretability for deep learning models by incorporating human-expert interpretations. At the global level, it reveals the histomorphological patterns on which the model consistently relies to distinguish between classes of WSIs, as well as the patterns associated with confusion between classes. At the local level, it indicates which of these patterns are used in the prediction of an individual WSI and which regions within the slide correspond to such patterns. We validated our method across multiple deep learning–based WSI analysis tasks spanning different tissue types. The results show that our framework generates explanations that accurately reflect the histomorphology underlying the model’s predictions at both global and local levels. For interpretability and clinical utility in diagnostic contexts, human evaluation results showed that our explanations were easy to interpret, rich in diagnostic features, and directly helpful for diagnostic decision-making, thereby enhancing pathologist-AI collaboration. Our work highlights that unifying global and local explanations and grounding them in expert-interpreted morphology enhances the interpretability and verifiability of deep learning models, thereby facilitating the transparent deployment of such models in clinical practice.

Lou, Peiliang↗
DOE OSTI2024

CryoTRANS: predicting high-resolution maps of rare conformations from self-supervised trajectories in cryo-EM

Cryogenic electron microscopy (cryo-EM) has revolutionized structural biology, enabling efficient determination of structures at near-atomic resolutions. However, a common challenge arises from the severe imbalance among various conformations of vitrified particles, leading to low-resolution reconstructions in rare conformations due to a lack of particle images in these quasi-stable states. We introduce CryoTRANS, a method that predicts high-resolution maps of rare conformations by constructing a self-supervised pseudo-trajectory between density maps of varying resolutions. This trajectory is represented by an ordinary differential equation parameterized by a deep neural network, ensuring retention of detailed structures from high-resolution density maps. By leveraging a single high-resolution density map, CryoTRANS significantly improves the reconstruction of rare conformations and has been validated on four real-world datasets: alpha-2-macroglobulin, actin-binding protein complexes, SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein, and the 70S ribosome. CryoTRANS can also predict high-resolution structures in cryogenic electron tomography maps using a high-resolution cryo-EM map.Cryogenic electron microscopy (cryo-EM) has revolutionized structural biology, enabling efficient determination of structures at near-atomic resolutions. However, a common challenge arises from the severe imbalance among various conformations of vitrified particles, leading to low-resolution reconstructions in rare conformations due to a lack of particle images in these quasi-stable states. We introduce CryoTRANS, a method that predicts high-resolution maps of rare conformations by constructing a self-supervised pseudo-trajectory between density maps of varying resolutions. This trajectory is represented by an ordinary differential equation parameterized by a deep neural network, ensuring retention of detailed structures from high-resolution density maps. By leveraging a single high-resolution density map, CryoTRANS significantly improves the reconstruction of rare conformations and has been validated on four real-world datasets: alpha-2-macroglobulin, actin-binding protein complexes, SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein, and the 70S ribosome. CryoTRANS can also predict high-resolution structures in cryogenic electron tomography maps using a high-resolution cryo-EM map.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Come for predictions, stay for complexity: synthesis and experimental probing of ionic conductivity in Li 9 B 19 S 33

Lithium thioborates, despite their potential cost-effectiveness and low density, have received considerably less attention as solid electrolytes compared to their thiophosphate counterparts. A primary obstacle to their widespread investigation has been the inherent challenge in synthesizing single-phase materials. Computational studies have predicted several lithium thioborate phases exhibiting high ionic conductivity, with Li 9 B 19 S 33 notably predicted to reach 80 mS cm −1 . However, experimental validation of these theoretical predictions remains absent. This work addresses this gap by detailing a successful synthesis of the previously elusive Li 9 B 19 S 33 phase, facilitated by in situ temperature dependent powder X-ray diffraction. Our findings reveal the peritectic nature of phase formation, necessitating an excess of boron sulfide in the reaction mixture. We further present a comprehensive structural characterization of Li 9 B 19 S 33 utilizing spectroscopic techniques like NMR, FT-IR, and diffuse reflectance and report on its ionic conductivity. Solid-state 6 Li NMR line narrowing experiments revealed an ion mobility activation energy of 0.26 eV whereas activation energies derived from impedance spectroscopy measurements were significantly higher, resulting in lower than theoretically predicted ionic conductivity.

Oppong, Richeal A. [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (Un↗
DOE OSTI2025

Efficiently predicting pressure-composition-temperature diagrams to discover low-stability metal hydrides

Quantitatively accurate computational predictions of metal hydride thermodynamics are challenging but critical for alloy performance optimization across a multitude of technological domains, including hydrogen storage, compression, purification, and getters. Recent machine learning approaches have demonstrated great success in this area, but can potentially suffer from several shortcomings since they rely on imbalanced experimental training data and can have poor out-of-distribution (ood) test performance. Here, in this study, we circumvent such pitfalls by developing a computationally efficient, first principles-based workflow for direct prediction of metal hydride phase equilibrium, i.e., the pressure-composition-temperature (PCT) diagram. We then demonstrate its utility on predicting low stability hydrides derived from compositionally complex C14 Laves phase AB2 alloys. Specifically, we computationally predict and then experimentally validate an AB 2 alloy series (z < 0.6 for Ti 2−z Zr z CrMnFeNi) with ideal hydriding thermodynamics for a two-stage metal hydride-based compressor for pressurizing boil off from liquefied hydrogen. Importantly, this study lays the groundwork for accurate and efficient discovery/optimization of ood, low-stability hydrides for which purely data-driven approaches lack sufficient accuracy.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predicting Damages to Remainder Parcels in Right-of-Way Acquisitions for Expanding Transportation Infrastructure: Using a Truncated Finite-Mixture Model

Right-of-way acquisition is a critical component of transportation infrastructure development. Transportation infrastructure projects cannot proceed without proper right-of-way acquisition or may face significant delays. State Departments of Transportation frequently acquire parcels of land for roadway expansion projects. A majority of these acquisitions can be partial takings, referring to a portion of a parcel that is acquired. The remainder of the property usually suffers economic changes due to the partial acquisition, which can be calculated as damage percentages. The damage percentage represents the extent to which the remaining land or property value has been diminished due to the acquisition. It reflects the remaining property value percentage that may have been lost or compromised due to the acquisition. Here, this study aims to provide a robust model to estimate damage percentages to the remainder parcels that may help state Departments of Transportation appraisers make early predictions about the damages in cases involving partial takings. The research uses 509 appraisal reports from the Tennessee Department of Transportation to identify the key parcel attributes that influence the percentage of damages. Three regression models are developed: a linear regression model, a finite-mixture model (FMM), and a truncated FMM with two latent classes. The modeling results show that the truncated FMM with two classes outperforms the other models. To validate the models, actual sales data is collected and analyzed for 59 properties, and the results suggest that the model predictions are fairly accurate. A predictive tool is developed based on the models to help appraisers anticipate right-of-way damages under different scenarios and can provide early predictions about the damages.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep learning-based predictive models for laser direct drive at the Omega Laser Facility

The rich and complex physics of inertial confinement fusion provides a unique and challenging space for high-fidelity first-principles modeling. Consequently, simulation codes that are used to design experiments are computationally expensive and lack the predictive capability required for extensive parameter exploration in search of a high-performing design for laser direct drive. In this article, we present two deep-learning-based predictive models intended to address these difficulties. The first model (TL DNN) acts as a fast emulator of simulations as well as experiments at the Omega Laser Facility. This model is trained on a simulation database and subsequently calibrated on experimental data using transfer learning. To facilitate the development of this model, an autoencoder is developed to reduce the dimensionality of the input space by compressing the laser pulse input. The model predicts key experimental scalar observables of Omega experiments with high accuracy and minimal computational cost. This deep neural net enables rapid exploration of a high-dimensional input parameter space for an optimal implosion design. The second model (DNN SM+) aims to extend the statistical modeling work of Lees et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 127, 105001 (2021)], by increasing the complexity of the model space and allowing for coupling between degradation terms. Since the model capacity of DNN SM+ is higher than the model of Lees et al., DNN SM+ can potentially provide an improvement in predictive capability, and we use this model to provide insight into complicated degradation dependencies.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Toward an improved nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium model for more predictive simulations of ignition scale hohlraums

Recently, nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) modeling has been identified as the primary reason for discrepant predictions of the peak neutron production time in indirectly driven inertial confinement fusion (ICF) platforms. It has also been observed that predictions of collisional excitation rates differ by as much as 50% from measurements. Theoretical uncertainties in dielectronic recombination rates have also been posited as possibly contributing to errors in NLTE predictions. This work examines the impact of multipliers on collisional excitation and dielectronic recombination rates on simulations of a directly driven gold sphere and an indirect drive ICF implosion. It is found that multipliers on the collisional excitation rates have a strong impact on radiant intensity and electron temperature and a weaker impact on ionization state, whereas multipliers on dielectronic recombinations rates strongly impact ionization state with a smaller impact on radiant intensity and electron temperature. A self-consistent NLTE model which places multipliers on differing transitions, as motivated by experimental measurements and more detailed atomic physics predictions, improves agreement but does not completely eliminate discrepancies with measurements of the radiant intensity within the 2–4 keV spectral range.

Farmer, W. A. [Lawrence Livermore National Laborat↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning enhanced predictions of ICRF heating: Overcoming numerical limitations via data curation

In this work, we present the development of robust surrogate models for Ion Cyclotron Range of Frequencies (ICRF) and High-Harmonic Fast Wave (HHFW) heating predictions in fusion plasmas. Building upon our previous efforts to achieve real-time capable models, we identify the cause of the outliers found using TORIC in certain HHFW heating scenarios. The outliers are observed to be spurious ion Bernstein wave (IBW)-like modes caused by a wavelength control algorithm designed to address challenging scenarios with high perpendicular wavenumbers. The effect arises from the modulation in the perpendicular susceptibility, which can induce sign reversal and IBW-like propagation for scenarios featuring normalized ion Larmor radius λ i ≫ 1. We use TORIC with this algorithm disabled to generate a novel HHFW-NSTX database that is free of outliers. Surrogate models trained on this database, including Random Forest Regressor (RFR), Multi-Layer Perceptrons, and Gaussian Process Regressors (GPR), demonstrate the ability to accurately predict HHFW heating profiles, with regression scores of R 2 ∈[0.93−0.99]. Additionally we demonstrate that it is possible to generalize predictions beyond training data by the use of both RFR and GPR models, enabling the prediction of scenarios previously limited to the original model. GPR models also provide uncertainty quantification, offering insights into model confidence. This work introduces a comprehensive Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification methodology for surrogate modeling, applicable not only to ICRF heating but also to other RF heating challenges and fusion physics problems. Beyond accelerated inference, these models show effective extrapolation capabilities, providing an alternative for addressing numerical challenges.

Artificial neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2026

Full-stack Quantification of Variability in Predicting Ion Transport Properties using Machine-learned Interatomic Potentials

Machine-learned interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have become the state-of-the-art for performing accurate, scalable molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. It is therefore crucial to understand and quantify the reliability of MLIPs for downstream property predictions. Uncertainty in predicted properties can arise from limitations in first-principles training data, intrinsic MLIP model errors in representing the data, and the statistical noise introduced during subsequent MD simulations. Using ion transport in Li7P3S11 as a case study, we systematically assess the impact of training set size and selection, neural network stochasticity, and MD sampling statistics on predicted diffusivity and activation energy. We find that when using equivariant MLIP architectures with standard MD protocols, uncertainty arising from MD sampling dominates over model-induced errors. In contrast, MLIP errors relative to the underlying first-principles data are consistently minor. Given this, there are two main routes to improving the accuracy of predictions based on MLIP potentials: adopting higher accuracy reference data generation methods, and improving the MD sampling statistics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved deep learning prediction of antigen–antibody interactions

Identifying antibodies that neutralize specific antigens is crucial for developing effective immunotherapies, but this task remains challenging for many target antigens. The rise of deep learning–based computational approaches presents a promising avenue to address this challenge. Here, we assess the performance of a deep learning approach through two benchmark tests aimed at predicting antibodies for the receptor-binding domain of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike protein. Three different strategies for constructing input sequence alignments are employed for predicting structural models of antigen–antibody complexes. In our initial testing set, which comprises known experimental structures, these strategies collectively yield a significant top-ranked prediction for 61% of cases and a success rate of 47%. Notably, one strategy that utilizes the sequences of known antigen binders outperforms the other two, achieving a precision of 90% in a subsequent test set of ~1,000 antibodies, balanced between true and control antibodies for the antigen, albeit with a lower recall of 25%. Our results underscore the potential of integrating deep learning methods with single B cell sequencing techniques to enhance the prediction accuracy of antigen–antibody interactions.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing time-dependent temperature profile predictions using reduced transport models for high performing NSTX plasmas

Time-dependent, predictive simulations were performed with the 1.5D tokamak integrated modeling code TRANSP on a large set of well-analyzed, high performing discharges from the National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) in order to evaluate how well modern reduced transport models can reproduce experimentally observed temperature profiles in spherical tokamaks. Overall, it is found that simulations using the Multi-Mode Model (MMM) more consistently agree with the NSTX observations than those using the Trapped Gyro-Landau Fluid (TGLF) model, despite TGLF requiring orders of magnitude greater computational cost. When considering all examined discharges, MMM has median overpredictions of electron temperature (T e ) and ion temperature (T i ) profiles of 28% and 27%, respectively, relative to the experiment. TGLF overpredicts T e by 46%, with much larger variance than MMM, and underpredicts T i by 25%. As the ratio of kinetic to magnetic field pressure (β) is increased across NSTX discharges, TGLF predicts lower T e and significant flattening of the T i profile, conflicting with NSTX observations. When using an electrostatic version of TGLF, both T e and T i are substantially overpredicted, underscoring the importance of electromagnetic turbulence in the high β spherical tokamak regime. Additionally, calculations with neural net surrogate models for TGLF were performed outside of TRANSP with a time slice flux matching transport solver, finding better agreement with experiment than the TRANSP simulations, highlighting the impact of different transport solvers and simulation techniques. Furthermore, the reasonable agreement with experiment of temperature profiles predicted by MMM motivates a more detailed examination of the sensitivities of the TRANSP simulations with MMM to different NSTX plasma regimes in a companion paper (Lestz et al Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 67 105030), in preparation for self-consistent, time-dependent predictive modeling of NSTX-U scenarios.

Lestz, J. B. [General Atomics, San Diego, CA (Unit↗