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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12

Predicting critical heat flux using localized sensing at invisible vapor-liquid interfaces

Predicting critical heat flux (CHF) in two-phase electronics cooling systems remains a significant challenge due to the sudden onset of boiling crisis and the difficulty in directly visualizing vapor-liquid interfaces. Existing sensing methods rely on lagging temperature measurements, optically accessible systems, or spatially averaged signals that cannot pinpoint CHF initiation at localized high-heat-flux regions. Here, we report a planar capacitive sensing approach that enables real-time, localized detection of vapor-liquid interface dynamics for CHF prediction in boiling heat transfer. The capacitive sensor exploits the dielectric constant difference between liquid and vapor phases to capture bubble nucleation, growth, and departure dynamics with a temporal resolution down to 2 ms. The capacitive sensing reveals distinct signals across boiling regimes: from high-frequency fluctuations during strong nucleate boiling to low-frequency fluctuations with increased amplitudes when approaching CHF. The multi-sensor array experiments demonstrate real-time localized sensing, where each sensor responds exclusively to boiling in its immediate vicinity without crosstalk from neighboring regions. This non-intrusive sensing approach provides predictive rather than lagging sensing signals of CHF occurrence, offering predictive diagnosis of two-phase liquid cooling for the thermal management of high-power-density electronics.

CHF↗

Machine learning based prediction of airflow maldistribution in air-to-refrigerant heat exchangers

Flow maldistribution is a common challenge in heat exchanger (HX) design and particularly important for air-to-refrigerant geometries where capacity losses can approach 65%. This has a major impact on central air conditioning systems, as compact duct design motivates the use of A-type HXs which are known to be affected by airflow maldistribution. Because velocity profiles are difficult to predict, components are often oversized leading to increased material cost, system footprint, and refrigerant charge. Several studies detail airflow maldistribution for individual HXs and packages, but findings cannot always be extrapolated to new designs. In this work, a machine learning (ML) based flow profile prediction framework is developed and applied to two common package configurations: (i) A-type and (ii) U-type HXs, across a broad range of HX geometries and flow rates. Porous media CFD simulations are validated against independent data for both package types as well as comprehensive in house measurements for a finless geometry with shape optimized non-round tubes, which validates the framework for new heat transfer surfaces. The ML models are trained on the porous media CFD simulations, predicting volumetric flow rate (VFR) within 1.1% and 1.9% with maximum relative L 2 norm errors of 0.48 and 0.65, respectively, while also delivering 10 5 speed up factor compared to full porous media CFD. HX level simulations show an up to 9% reduction in heat transfer from flow maldistribution, with greater losses occurring at smaller half apex angles. This framework enables rapid and highly accurate prediction of airflow maldistribution induced capacity degradation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Active operator learning with predictive uncertainty quantification for partial differential equations

With the increased prevalence of neural operators being used to provide rapid solutions to partial differential equations (PDEs), understanding the accuracy of model predictions and the associated error levels is necessary for deploying reliable surrogate models in scientific applications. Existing uncertainty quantification (UQ) frameworks employ ensembles or Bayesian methods, which can incur substantial computational costs during both training and inference. Here, we propose a lightweight predictive UQ method tailored for Deep operator networks (DeepONets) that also generalizes to other operator networks. Numerical experiments on linear and nonlinear PDEs demonstrate that the framework’s uncertainty estimates are unbiased and provide accurate out-of-distribution uncertainty predictions with a sufficiently large training dataset. Our framework provides fast inference and uncertainty estimates that can efficiently drive outer-loop analyses that would be prohibitively expensive with conventional solvers. We demonstrate how predictive uncertainties can be used in the context of Bayesian optimization and active learning problems to yield improvements in accuracy and data-efficiency for outer-loop optimization procedures. In the active learning setup, we extend the framework to Fourier Neural Operators (FNO) and describe a generalized method for other operator networks. To enable real-time deployment, we introduce an inference strategy based on precomputed trunk outputs and a sparse placement matrix, reducing evaluation time by more than a factor of five. Our method provides a practical route to uncertainty-aware operator learning in time-sensitive settings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A deep learning-based workflow for fast prediction of 3D state variables in geological carbon storage: A dimension reduction approach

Deep learning (DL) models are extensively used as surrogate models for high-fidelity simulations of multiphase fluid flow in porous media at large scales, enabling fast forecasts of the spatial–temporal evolution of three-dimensional (3D) state variables in geological carbon storage (GCS). However, training these models in high-dimensional space remains computationally demanding and prone to overfitting because of limited training data. This paper presents a novel workflow to address these challenges by integrating dimension reduction (DR) methods. Here, the proposed workflow employed pre-trained DR models to extract the latent variables of geological models and state variables and utilized the multi-layer perceptron (MLP) for constructing mapping functions between the input and output variables in latent spaces. Subsequently, the pre-trained reconstruction models converted the MLP-predicted latent state variables to their original high-dimensional form. Furthermore, we proposed a novel strategy for the DR and reconstruction of 3D saturation fields to account for the unique data characteristics of sparsity, nonuniformity, and discontinuity. The proposed strategy applied PCA and inverse PCA for 2D average saturation fields and developed a DL-based 3D reconstruction model, leveraging three 2D average saturation fields as input to produce a 3D saturation field as output. The pre-training of DR and reconstruction models and training of MLP models were conducted on 84 Gulf of Mexico (GoM) simulations and evaluated on 12 testing simulations. Each simulation contained 720 monthly time steps, with the first 360 months as the injection period and the rest as the post-injection period. The proposed workflow, incorporating DR and DL models, accurately predicts the normalized 3D pressure fields, achieving mean square error (MSE) of 2.92 × 10 -7 compared to the ground truth obtained from a full-physics simulator. Furthermore, the proposed strategy outperformed PCA and convolutional autoencoder (CAE) models on 3D saturation fields, resulting in minor workflow prediction errors with an MSE of 2.93 × 10 -5 . The results suggest the proposed workflow provides sufficient predictive fidelity across temporal and spatial scales, and enables a speedup of 160 times compared to the full-physics simulator, facilitating improved decision-making and risk assessment for large-scale GCS management in real-time scenarios.

3D reconstruction model↗

Impact of temperature variations on BISON predictions of Ag release in AGR-1 and AGR-2 experiments

Understanding and quantifying the release of fission products like silver (Ag) from TRistructural ISOtropic (TRISO) fuel particles is important to assess the safe operation of advanced high temperature reactors. Although the silicon carbide (SiC) layer of TRISO particles is effective as the main fission product barrier, Ag can be released from intact TRISO particles. A mechanistic model for the effective Ag diffusivity, D eff , was previously developed as a function of temperature and microstructure variables informed by atomistic modeling of Ag diffusivity on the mesoscale. Here in this study, we use this model to explore how experimental temperature uncertainties impact the overall predicted Ag release. This analysis shows that temperature uncertainties have a significant impact on the overall Ag release predictions. Furthermore, we show that the time average volume average temperature (TAVA) temperature is not an appropriate proxy for temperature histories to predict fission product release. We attribute this to the Arrhenius dependence of Ag diffusivity with respect to temperature. The detailed temperature histories, therefore, provide the most accurate results are are of most importance for modeling efforts. Overall, this work shows the importance of considering the experimental uncertainty of the temperature on computational predictions of fission product transport and release and the need for more accurate temperature histories from future experiments.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Dynamic data-driven multiscale modeling for predicting the degradation of a 316L stainless steel nuclear cladding material

Here, we have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Leveraging transfer learning and leaf spectroscopy for leaf trait prediction with broad spatial, species, and temporal applicability

Accurate and reliable prediction of leaf traits is crucial for understanding plant adaptations to environmental variation, monitoring terrestrial ecosystems, and enhancing comprehension of functional diversity and ecosystem functioning. Currently, various approaches (e.g., statistical, physical models) have been developed to estimate leaf traits through hyperspectral remote sensing and leaf spectroscopy. However, the absence of high-performing, transferable, and stable models across various domains of space, plant functional types (PFTs) and seasons hinder our ability to quantify and comprehend spatiotemporal variations in leaf traits. This study proposes robust and highly transferable models for better predicting leaf traits with hyperspectral reflectance. Initially, three datasets were assembled, pairing common leaf traits — chlorophyll (Chla+b), carotenoids (Ccar), leaf mass per area (LAM), equivalent water thickness (EWT) — with leaf spectra measurements collected across diverse geographic locations in the U.S. and Europe, PFTs, and seasons. Measurements were acquired using spectroradiometers (e.g., ASD FieldSpec 3/4/Pro and SVC HR-1024i) with integrating spheres, leaf clips, and contact probes. Here, we then developed transfer learning-based hybrid models that incorporated the domain knowledge of radiative transfer models (RTMs) through pretraining processes and were well-constrained by fine-tuning with field measurements. Through comparison with other state-of-the-art statistical models, including partial-least squares regression (PLSR) and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), as well as pure physical models, we found that the proposed transfer learning models achieved better predictive performance and higher transferability. Specifically, compared to other statistical models and pure RTMs, the transfer learning model exhibited higher coefficient of determination (R 2 ) values with range of 0.01 to 0.79, lower normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) with range of 0.06 % to 33.25 % in model performance. Additionally, the models exhibited improved transferability, with higher R 2 values range from 0.04 to 0.32, lower NRMSE range from 0.08 % to 30.81 %. The findings underscore that transfer learning models through integrating domain knowledge from RTMs and limited observations, can harness the advantages of both RTMs and statistical models and serve as a promising approach for effectively predicting leaf traits.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The Tribomechadynamics Research Challenge: Confronting blind predictions for the linear and nonlinear dynamics of a thin-walled jointed structure with measurement results

The present article summarizes the submissions to the Tribomechadynamics Research Challenge announced in 2021. The task was a blind prediction of the vibration behavior of a system comprising a thin plate clamped on two sides via bolted joints. Both geometric and frictional contact nonlinearities are expected to be relevant. Provided were the CAD models and technical drawings of all parts as well as assembly instructions. The main objective was to predict the frequency and damping ratio of the lowest-frequency mode as function of the amplitude. Many different prediction approaches were pursued, ranging from well-known methods to very recently developed ones. After the submission deadline, the system has been fabricated and tested. The aim of this article is to evaluate the current state of the art in modeling and vibration prediction, and to provide directions for future methodological advancements.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Predicting Multicomponent Aqueous Phase Adsorption Equilibria of Organic Acids Using the Generalized Brunauer–Emmett–Teller Isotherm Model

Here, to support process development of adsorptive separation of organic acids, this work presents a thermodynamic modeling methodology to predict multicomponent aqueous phase organic acid adsorption equilibria from single-component adsorption isotherms using the generalized Brunauer–Emmett–Teller isotherm model (gBET). With the organic acid fugacities rigorously accounting for the aqueous phase organic acid solution chemistry and solution nonideality, gBET precisely represents the single-component adsorption isotherms and accurately predicts the binary and ternary mixed-acid adsorption equilibria for the ranges of initial pH (∼3–7), acid concentration (100–400 mmol/L), and temperature (298.15–328.15 K) with less than 10% average absolute relative deviation. In addition, gBET with pH-independent parameters provides insights into the underlying adsorption phenomena, including the adsorbate loadings and compositions in the monolayer and subsequent layers under varying initial pH, temperature, concentration, and composition. The gBET model predictions outperform the predictions from the overloading model and the Ideal Dilute Solution Theory.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Ligand-Based Compound Activity Prediction via Few-Shot Learning

Predicting the activities of new compounds against biophysical or phenotypic assays based on the known activities of one or a few existing compounds is a common goal in early stage drug discovery. This problem can be cast as a “few-shot learning” challenge, and prior studies have developed few-shot learning methods to classify compounds as active versus inactive. However, the ability to go beyond classification and rank compounds by expected affinity is more valuable. We describe Few-Shot Compound Activity Prediction (FS-CAP), a novel neural architecture trained on a large bioactivity data set to predict compound activities against an assay outside the training set, based on only the activities of a few known compounds against the same assay. Our model aggregates encodings generated from the known compounds and their activities to capture assay information and uses a separate encoder for the new compound whose activity is to be predicted. The new method provides encouraging results relative to traditional chemical-similarity-based techniques as well as other state-of-the-art few-shot learning methods in tests on a variety of ligand-based drug discovery settings and data sets.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Nonempirical Prediction of the Length-Dependent Ionization Potential in Molecular Chains

The ionization potential of molecular chains is well-known to be a tunable nanoscale property that exhibits clear quantum confinement effects. State-of-the-art methods can accurately predict the ionization potential in the small molecule limit and in the solid-state limit, but for intermediate, nanosized systems prediction of the evolution of the electronic structure between the two limits is more difficult. Recently, optimal tuning of range-separated hybrid functionals has emerged as a highly accurate method for predicting ionization potentials. This was first achieved for molecules using the ionization potential theorem (IPT) and more recently extended to solid-state systems, based on an ansatz that generalizes the IPT to the removal of charge from a localized Wannier function. Here, we study one-dimensional molecular chains of increasing size, from the monomer limit to the infinite polymer limit using this approach. By comparing our results with other localization-based methods and where available with experiment, we demonstrate that Wannier-localization-based optimal tuning is highly accurate in predicting ionization potentials for any chain length, including the nanoscale regime.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Improving Predictions of Spin-Crossover Complex Properties through DFT Calculations with a Local Hybrid Functional

We conducted a study on the performance of the local hybrid exchange-correlation functional PBE0r for a set of 95 experimentally-characterized iron spin crossover (SCO) complexes. The PBE0r functional is a variant of PBE0 where the exchange correction is restricted to on-site terms formulated within the basis of local orbitals. We determine the free parameters of the PBE0r functional against experimental data and other hybrid functionals. With a Hartree-Fock (HF) exchange factor of 4%, the PBE0r functional accurately reproduces the electronic and free energy trends predicted in prior DFT studies for these 95 complexes using the B3LYP functional. Larger values of HF exchange stabilize high-spin states. The PBE0r-predicted bond lengths tend to exceed the experimental bond lengths, and bond lengths are less sensitive to HF exchange. The predicted SCO transition temperatures T 1/2 from PBE0r correlate moderately with the experimental transition temperatures, showing a slight improvement compared to the previous modB3LYP-predicted T 1/2 . Furthermore, this study suggests the PBE0r functional as computationally cost-effective and offers the possibility of simulating larger complexes with accuracy comparable to other global hybrid functionals, provided the HF exchange parameter is carefully optimized.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Predicting Partial Atomic Charges in Metal–Organic Frameworks: An Extension to Ionic MOFs

Molecular simulation is an invaluable tool to predict and understand the usage of metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) for gas storage and separation applications. Accurate partial atomic charges, commonly obtained from density functional theory (DFT) calculations, are often required to model the electrostatic interactions between the MOF and adsorbates, especially when the adsorbates have dipole or quadrupole moments, such as water and CO 2 . Machine learning (ML) models have been previously employed to predict partial charges and avoid the computational cost associated with DFT calculations. However, previous ML models suffer from small training data sets, which limit their scope of application. In this work, we introduce two novel machine learning models, PACMOF2-neutral and PACMOF2-ionic, aimed at predicting the density-derived electrostatic and chemical (DDEC6) partial atomic charges for both neutral and ionic MOFs. These models not only yield DFT-level accuracy at a fraction of the computational cost but also demonstrate a remarkable improvement in prediction of adsorption, as validated with grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations. Furthermore, the robustness and fast computational time of the PACMOF2 models, along with their transferability to other porous materials such as covalent organic frameworks and zeolites, underscores their potential in high-throughput screening of MOFs for diverse applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Chemistry Informed Machine Learning-Based Heat Capacity Prediction of Solid Mixed Oxides

Knowing heat capacity is crucial for modeling temperature changes with the absorption and release of heat and for calculating the thermal energy storage capacity of oxide mixtures with energy applications. The current prediction methods (ab initio simulations, computational thermodynamics, and the Neumann–Kopp rule) are computationally expensive, not fully generalizable, or inaccurate. Machine learning has the potential of being fast, accurate, and generalizable, but it has been scarcely used to predict mixture properties, particularly for mixed oxides. Here, we demonstrate a method for the generalizable prediction of heat capacity of solid oxide pseudobinary mixtures using heat capacity data obtained from computational thermodynamics and descriptors from ab initio databases. Further, models trained through this workflow achieved an error (mean absolute error of 0.43 J mol –1 K –1 ) lower than the uncertainty in differential scanning calorimetry measurements, and the workflow can be extended to predict other properties derived from the Gibbs free energy and for higher-order oxide mixtures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Prediction of Specificity of α-Conotoxins to Subtypes of Human Nicotinic Acetylcholine Receptors with Semi-supervised Machine Learning

Conotoxins are a family of highly toxic neurotoxins composed of cysteine-rich peptides produced by marine cone snails. The most lethal cone snail species to humans is Conus geographus, with fatality rates of up to ∼65% from a single sting, which is caused mostly by the activity of α-conotoxins against human nicotinic acetylcholine receptors (nAChRs). While sequence-based machine learning (ML) classifiers have been trained to identify targets of conotoxins binding voltage-gated ion channels, no ML model has been built to predict the subtype-specific nAChR targets of α-conotoxins. Here, we trained an ML model in a semi-supervised manner to predict the specificity of α-conotoxin binding toward different human nAChR subtypes to overcome the challenge of limited data in subtype-specific nAChR targets of α-conotoxins and the issue that one α-conotoxin can bind multiple nAChR subtypes with high selectivity. We considered additional features of sequences of α-conotoxins in training our ML model, including the secondary structure propensities and electrostatic properties, which resulted in better prediction capability for the ML model. Notably, we identify that most α-conotoxins bind to α3β2, α1γδ, and α7 subtypes of human nAChRs. Our findings from this study provide a framework for predicting targets of various kinds of toxins.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Development of Data-Driven Models for Performance Prediction and Chemical Dosing of a Full-Scale Controlled Phosphorus Precipitation Reactor

This study evaluated the use of data-driven models to improve control of a struvite precipitation reactor that removes phosphorus from wastewater while producing a fertilizer product. The researchers developed predictive models for influent orthophosphate concentration, effluent orthophosphate concentration, and phosphorus removal using operational data from a full-scale MagPrex™ reactor at a water resource recovery facility in Denver, Colorado. Model predictions were used to recommend magnesium chloride dosing adjustments needed to achieve a target effluent phosphorus concentration. Several machine learning approaches were tested, with ridge regression providing the best predictions for influent orthophosphate concentration and phosphorus removal, and XGBoost providing the best predictions for effluent orthophosphate concentration. Simulation results indicated that the decision-support approach could correctly identify dosing adjustments in most cases and reduce chemical use. Full-scale implementation achieved lower accuracy due to changing operating conditions and limited historical data in some operating ranges. Here, the results demonstrate the potential of data-driven tools to support phosphorus recovery process control while also identifying practical limitations that affect deployment in full-scale systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

High-Throughput Screening and Accurate Prediction of Ionic Liquid Viscosities Using Interpretable Machine Learning

Ionic liquids (ILs) are a novel group of green solvents with great promise for various industrial applications, including carbon capture and lignocellulosic biomass deconstruction. However, the use of ILs at the industrial scale remains challenging due to their high viscosities at ambient temperatures. To develop ILs with lower viscosities, a systematic study of their quantitative structure–property relationship (QSPR) is desirable. Here, we developed four machine learning (ML) models to predict viscosity at various temperature and pressure ranges, trained over a wide range of ILs consisting of various cationic and anionic families. ML methods including two-factor polynomial regression (two-factor PR), support vector regression (SVR), feed-forward neural networks (FFNN), and categorical boosting (CATBoost) were developed based on features that have proven useful in previous ML studies: COSMO-RS (conductor-like screening model for real solvents)-derived surface screening charge densities (sigma profiles). FFNN and CATBoost were the most accurate in predicting IL viscosities with lower average absolute relative deviation and higher R2 values on the test set. Tanimoto similarity scores were calculated to characterize the chemical space and structural similarity of the investigated ions. Furthermore, SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) analysis was employed to interpret the ML results. Temperature, the polar area of ILs, and the nonpolar regions of ions are key features that influence the viscosity predictions. Importantly, the IL viscosity prediction here is the most accurate reported to date.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Theoretical Prediction and Experimental Verification of IrO x Supported on Titanium Nitride for Acidic Oxygen Evolution Reaction

Reducing iridium (Ir) catalyst loading for acidic oxygen evolution reaction (OER) is a critical strategy for large-scale hydrogen production via proton exchange membrane (PEM) water electrolysis. However, simultaneously achieving high activity, long-term stability, and reduced material cost remains challenging. To address this challenge, we develop a frame-work by combining density functional theory (DFT) prediction using model surfaces and proof-of-concept experimental ver-ification using thin films and nanoparticles. DFT results predict that oxidized Ir monolayers over titanium nitride (IrO x /TiN) should display higher OER activity than IrO x while reducing Ir loading. Further, this prediction is verified by depositing Ir monolayers over TiN thin films via physical vapor deposition. The promising thin film results are then extended to commercially viable powder IrO x /TiN catalysts, which demonstrate a lower overpotential and higher mass activity than commercial IrO 2 , and a long-term stability of 250 hours to maintain a current density of 10 mA cm -2 . The superior OER performance of IrO x /TiN is further confirmed using proton exchange membrane water electrolyzer (PEMWE), which shows a lower cell voltage than commercial IrO 2 to achieve a current density of 1 A cm -2 . Both DFT and in situ X-ray absorption spectroscopy reveal that the high OER performance of IrO x /TiN strongly depends on the IrO x - TiN interaction via direct Ir-Ti bonding. This study highlights the importance of close interaction between theoretical prediction based on mechanistic understanding and experimental verification based on thin film model catalysts to facilitate the development of more practical powder IrO x /TiN catalysts with high activity and stability for acidic OER.

08 HYDROGEN↗