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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1990

Modelling default and likelihood reasoning as probabilistic

A probabilistic analysis of plausible reasoning about defaults and about likelihood is presented. 'Likely' and 'by default' are in fact treated as duals in the same sense as 'possibility' and 'necessity'. To model these four forms probabilistically, a logic QDP and its quantitative counterpart DP are derived that allow qualitative and corresponding quantitative reasoning. Consistency and consequence results for subsets of the logics are given that require at most a quadratic number of satisfiability tests in the underlying propositional logic. The quantitative logic shows how to track the propagation error inherent in these reasoning forms. The methodology and sound framework of the system highlights their approximate nature, the dualities, and the need for complementary reasoning about relevance.

Buntine, Wray↗
NASA NTRS1992

Computational simulation of probabilistic lifetime strength for aerospace materials subjected to high temperature, mechanical fatigue, creep, and thermal fatigue

The results of a fourth year effort of a research program conducted for NASA-LeRC by The University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA) are presented. The research included on-going development of methodology that provides probabilistic lifetime strength of aerospace materials via computational simulation. A probabilistic material strength degradation model, in the form of a randomized multifactor interaction equation, is postulated for strength degradation of structural components of aerospace propulsion systems subjected to a number of effects or primitive variables. These primitive variables may include high temperature, fatigue, or creep. In most cases, strength is reduced as a result of the action of a variable. This multifactor interaction strength degradation equation was randomized and is included in the computer program, PROMISC. Also included in the research is the development of methodology to calibrate the above-described constitutive equation using actual experimental materials data together with regression analysis of that data, thereby predicting values for the empirical material constants for each effect or primitive variable. This regression methodology is included in the computer program, PROMISC. Actual experimental materials data were obtained from industry and the open literature for materials typically for applications in aerospace propulsion system components. Material data for Inconel 718 was analyzed using the developed methodology.

Boyce, Lola↗
NASA NTRS1992

A probabilistic approach to the evaluation of fatigue damage in a space propulsion system injector element

The fatigue damage of a space propulsion system component is computed using probabilistic structural analysis methods. The analysis takes into account the variations in static and dynamic loads, the uncertainty in structural damping, and the scatter in material fatigue resistance. The key elements of the probabilistic approach include: (1) a numerical engine model for describing the global component interface loads consistent with engine balance, (2) models for computing the local mode boundary conditions on the component, (3) a static structural analysis model that captures the strains at a damage critical location as a function of engine performance variables, (4) a finite element model for assessment of the random amplitude stress response due to random base and pressure excitations with uncertain power and correlation length, and (5) advanced first order reliability methods for computing the probabilities associated with the fatigue damage.

Rajagopal, K. R.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Fatigue crack growth reliability by probabilistic finite elements

Fusion of the probabilistic finite-element method and reliability analysis for probabilistic fatigue-crack growth is presented. A comprehensive method for determining the probability of fatigue failure for mixed-mode cyclic loading is also presented. The loading is mixed-mode with randomness in the initial and final crack lengths, initial crack angle and position, material properties, crack-growth law, crack-direction law, and loading. The methodology consists of calculating the reliability index via an optimization procedure which is used to calculate the probability of fatigue failure. Performance of the methodology presented is demonstrated on a classical mode-I fatigue problem.

Besterfield, Glen H.↗
NASA NTRS1992

A probabilistic fracture mechanics approach for structural reliability assessment of space flight systems

A probabilistic fracture mechanics approach for predicting the failure life distribution due to subcritical crack growth is presented. A state-of-the-art crack propagation method is used in a Monte Carlo simulation to generate a distribution of failure lives. The crack growth failure model expresses failure life as a function of stochastic parameters including environment, loads, material properties, geometry, and model specification errors. A stochastic crack growth rate model that considers the uncertainties due to scatter in the data and mode misspecification is proposed. The rationale for choosing a particular type of probability distribution for each stochastic input parameter and for specifying the distribution parameters is presented. The approach is demonstrated through a probabilistic crack growth failure analysis of a welded tube in the Space Shuttle Main Engine. A discussion of the results from this application of the methodology is given.

Sutharshana, S.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Probabilistic evaluation of on-line checks in fault-tolerant multiprocessor systems

The analysis of fault-tolerant multiprocessor systems that use concurrent error detection (CED) schemes is much more difficult than the analysis of conventional fault-tolerant architectures. Various analytical techniques have been proposed to evaluate CED schemes deterministically. However, these approaches are based on worst-case assumptions related to the failure of system components. Often, the evaluation results do not reflect the actual fault tolerance capabilities of the system. A probabilistic approach to evaluate the fault detecting and locating capabilities of on-line checks in a system is developed. The various probabilities associated with the checking schemes are identified and used in the framework of the matrix-based model. Based on these probabilistic matrices, estimates for the fault tolerance capabilities of various systems are derived analytically.

Nair, V. S. S.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Statistical characterization of life drivers for a probabilistic design analysis

This paper discusses the issue of statistical characterization of life drivers for a probabilistic design analysis (PDA) approach to support the conventional deterministic structural design methods that are currently used. The probabilistic approach takes into consideration the modeling inadequacies and uncertainties in many design variables such as loads, environments, and material properties. The importance of the distributional assumption is motivated by illustrating an example where the results differ substantially due to the distribution selected. Different types of distributions are discussed and techniques for estimating the parameters are given. Given this information, procedures are outlined for selecting the appropriate distribution based on the particular type of variable (i.e., dimensional, performance) as well as the information that is available (i.e., test data, engineering analysis). Finally, techniques are given for generating random numbers from these selected distributions within the PDA process.

Fox, Eric P.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Computational simulation of probabilistic lifetime strength for aerospace materials subjected to high temperature, mechanical fatigue, creep and thermal fatigue

This report presents the results of a fourth year effort of a research program, conducted for NASA-LeRC by the University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA). The research included on-going development of methodology that provides probabilistic lifetime strength of aerospace materials via computational simulation. A probabilistic material strength degradation model, in the form of a randomized multifactor interaction equation, is postulated for strength degradation of structural components of aerospace propulsion systems subject to a number of effects or primitive variables. These primitive variables may include high temperature, fatigue or creep. In most cases, strength is reduced as a result of the action of a variable. This multifactor interaction strength degradation equation has been randomized and is included in the computer program, PROMISS. Also included in the research is the development of methodology to calibrate the above-described constitutive equation using actual experimental materials data together with regression analysis of that data, thereby predicting values for the empirical material constants for each effect or primitive variable. This regression methodology is included in the computer program, PROMISC. Actual experimental materials data were obtained from industry and the open literature for materials typically for applications in aerospace propulsion system components. Material data for Inconel 718 has been analyzed using the developed methodology.

Boyce, Lola↗
NASA NTRS1993

Probabilistic structural analysis for nuclear thermal propulsion

Viewgraphs of probabilistic structural analysis for nuclear thermal propulsion are presented. The objective of the study was to develop a methodology to certify Space Nuclear Propulsion System (SNPS) Nozzle with assured reliability. Topics covered include: advantage of probabilistic structural analysis; space nuclear propulsion system nozzle uncertainties in the random variables; SNPS nozzle natural frequency; and sensitivity of primitive variable uncertainties SNPS nozzle natural frequency and shell stress.

Shah, Ashwin↗
NASA NTRS1991

Probabilistic composite analysis

Formal procedures are described which are used to computationally simulate the probabilistic behavior of composite structures. The computational simulation starts with the uncertainties associated with all aspects of a composite structure (constituents, fabrication, assembling, etc.) and encompasses all aspects of composite behavior (micromechanics, macromechanics, combined stress failure, laminate theory, structural response, and tailoring) optimization. Typical cases are included to illustrate the formal procedure for computational simulation. The collective results of the sample cases demonstrate that uncertainties in composite behavior and structural response can be probabilistically quantified.

Chamis, C. C.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Probabilistic evaluation of SSME structural components

The application is described of Composite Load Spectra (CLS) and Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) family of computer codes to the probabilistic structural analysis of four Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) space propulsion system components. These components are subjected to environments that are influenced by many random variables. The applications consider a wide breadth of uncertainties encountered in practice, while simultaneously covering a wide area of structural mechanics. This has been done consistent with the primary design requirement for each component. The probabilistic application studies are discussed using finite element models that have been typically used in the past in deterministic analysis studies.

Rajagopal, K. R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Probabilistic evaluation of uncertainties and risks in aerospace components

A methodology is presented for the computational simulation of primitive variable uncertainties, and attention is given to the simulation of specific aerospace components. Specific examples treated encompass a probabilistic material behavior model, as well as static, dynamic, and fatigue/damage analyses of a turbine blade in a mistuned bladed rotor in the SSME turbopumps. An account is given of the use of the NESSES probabilistic FEM analysis CFD code.

Shah, A. R.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Probabilistic micromechanics for metal matrix composites

A probabilistic micromechanics-based nonlinear analysis procedure is developed to predict and quantify the variability in the properties of high temperature metal matrix composites. Monte Carlo simulation is used to model the probabilistic distributions of the constituent level properties including fiber, matrix, and interphase properties, volume and void ratios, strengths, fiber misalignment, and nonlinear empirical parameters. The procedure predicts the resultant ply properties and quantifies their statistical scatter. Graphite copper and Silicon Carbide Titanlum Aluminide (SCS-6 TI15) unidirectional plies are considered to demonstrate the predictive capabilities. The procedure is believed to have a high potential for use in material characterization and selection to precede and assist in experimental studies of new high temperature metal matrix composites.

Engelstad, S. P.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Probabilistic nonlinear finite element analysis of composite structures

A probabilistic finite element analysis procedure for laminated composite shells is developed. A total Lagrangian finite element formulation, employing a degenerated three-dimensional laminated composite shell element with the full Green-Lagrange strains and first-order shear deformable kinematics, is used. The first-order second-moment technique for probabilistic finite element analysis of random fields is employed, and results are presented in the form of mean and variance of the structural response. Reliability calculations are made by using the first-order reliability method combined with sensitivity derivatives from the finite element analysis. Both ply-level and micromechanics-level random variables are incorporated, the latter by means of the Aboudi micromechanics model. Two sample problems are solved to verify the accuracy of the procedures developed and to quantify the variability of certain material type/structure combinations. In general, the procedure is quite effective in determining the response statistics and reliability for linear and geometric nonlinear behavior of laminated composite shells.

Engelstad, S. P.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Probabilistic simulation of the human factor in structural reliability

A formal approach is described in an attempt to computationally simulate the probable ranges of uncertainties of the human factor in structural probabilistic assessments. A multi-factor interaction equation (MFIE) model has been adopted for this purpose. Human factors such as marital status, professional status, home life, job satisfaction, work load and health, are considered to demonstrate the concept. Parametric studies in conjunction with judgment are used to select reasonable values for the participating factors (primitive variables). Suitability of the MFIE in the subsequently probabilistic sensitivity studies are performed to assess the validity of the whole approach. Results obtained show that the uncertainties for no error range from five to thirty percent for the most optimistic case.

Chamis, C. C.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Application of probabilistic analysis/design methods in space programs - The approaches, the status, and the needs

The prospective improvement of probabilistic methods for space program analysis/design entails the further development of theories, codes, and tools which match specific areas of application, the drawing of lessons from previous uses of probability and statistics data bases, the enlargement of data bases (especially in the field of structural failures), and the education of engineers and managers on the advantages of these methods. An evaluation is presently made of the current limitations of probabilistic engineering methods. Recommendations are made for specific applications.

Ryan, Robert S.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Use of probabilistic design methods for NASA applications

This paper presents a reliability evaluation process designed to improve the reliability of advanced launch systems. The work performed includes the development of a reliability prediction methodology to be used in the design phase of the Space Transportation Main Engine (STME). This includes prediction techniques which use historical data bases as well as deterministic and probabilistic engineering models for predicting design reliability. In summary, this paper describes a probabilistic design approach for the next-generation liquid rocket engine, the STME.

Safie, Fayssal M.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Probabilistic micromechanics and macromechanics of polymer matrix composites

A probabilistic evaluation of an eight ply graphite-epoxy quasi-isotropic laminate was completed using the Integrated Composite Analyzer (ICAN) in conjunction with Monte Carlo simulation and Fast Probability Integration (FPI) techniques. Probabilistic input included fiber and matrix properties, fiber misalignment, fiber volume ratio, void volume ratio, ply thickness and ply layup angle. Cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) for select laminate properties are given. To reduce the number of simulations, a Fast Probability Integration (FPI) technique was used to generate CDFs for the select properties in the absence of fiber misalignment. These CDFs were compared to a second Monte Carlo simulation done without fiber misalignment effects. It was found that FPI requires fewer simulations to obtain the cumulative distribution functions as opposed to Monte Carlo simulation techniques. Furthermore, FPI provides valuable information regarding the sensitivities of composite properties to the constituent properties, fiber volume ratio and void volume ratio.

Mase, G. T.↗