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At least 217 records · Page 12

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DOE OSTI2014

Dynamical modeling of tidal streams

I present a new framework for modeling the dynamics of tidal streams. The framework consists of simple models for the initial action-angle distribution of tidal debris, which can be straightforwardly evolved forward in time. Taking advantage of the essentially one-dimensional nature of tidal streams, the transformation to position-velocity coordinates can be linearized and interpolated near a small number of points along the stream, thus allowing for efficient computations of a stream's properties in observable quantities. I illustrate how to calculate the stream's average location (its 'track') in different coordinate systems, how to quickly estimate the dispersion around its track, and how to draw mock stream data. As a generative model, this framework allows one to compute the full probability distribution function and marginalize over or condition it on certain phase-space dimensions as well as convolve it with observational uncertainties. This will be instrumental in proper data analysis of stream data. In addition to providing a computationally efficient practical tool for modeling the dynamics of tidal streams, the action-angle nature of the framework helps elucidate how the observed width of the stream relates to the velocity dispersion or mass of the progenitor, and how the progenitors of 'orphan' streams could be located. The practical usefulness of the proposed framework crucially depends on the ability to calculate action-angle variables for any orbit in any gravitational potential. A novel method for calculating actions, frequencies, and angles in any static potential using a single orbit integration is described in the Appendix.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Benchmarking PARTISN with Analog Monte Carlo: Moments of the Neutron Number and the Cumulative Fission Number Probability Distributions

The purpose of this report is to provide the reader with an understanding of how a Monte Carlo neutron transport code was written, developed, and evolved to calculate the probability distribution functions (PDFs) and their moments for the neutron number at a final time as well as the cumulative fission number, along with introducing several basic Monte Carlo concepts.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2012

PROPERTIES OF INTERSTELLAR TURBULENCE FROM GRADIENTS OF LINEAR POLARIZATION MAPS

Faraday rotation of linearly polarized radio signals provides a very sensitive probe of fluctuations in the interstellar magnetic field and ionized gas density resulting from magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence. We used a set of statistical tools to analyze images of the spatial gradient of linearly polarized radio emission (|{nabla}P|) for both observational data from a test image of the Southern Galactic Plane Survey (SGPS) and isothermal three-dimensional simulations of MHD turbulence. Visually, in both observations and simulations, a complex network of filamentary structures is seen. Our analysis shows that the filaments in |{nabla}P| can be produced both by interacting shocks and random fluctuations characterizing the non-differentiable field of MHD turbulence. The latter dominates for subsonic turbulence, while the former is only present in supersonic turbulence. We show that supersonic and subsonic turbulence exhibit different distributions as well as different morphologies in the maps of |{nabla}P|. Particularly, filaments produced by shocks show a characteristic 'double jump' profile at the sites of shock fronts resulting from delta function-like increases in the density and/or magnetic field, while those produced by subsonic turbulence show a single jump profile. In order to quantitatively characterize these differences, we use the topology tool known as the genus curve as well as the probability distribution function moments of the image distribution. We find that higher values for the moments correspond to cases of |{nabla}P| with larger sonic Mach numbers. The genus analysis of the supersonic simulations of |{nabla}P| reveals a 'swiss cheese' topology, while the subsonic cases have characteristics of a 'clump' topology. Based on the analysis of the genus and the higher order moments, the SGPS test region data have a distribution and morphology that match subsonic- to transonic-type turbulence, which confirms what is now expected for the warm ionized medium.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-J-115: Using Markov Chain Modeling to Elucidate Patterns in Breast Cancer Metastasis Over Time and Space

Purpose: Traditionally, breast cancer metastasis is described as a process wherein cancer cells spread from the breast to multiple organ systems via hematogenous and lymphatic routes. Mapping organ specific patterns of cancer spread over time is essential to understanding metastatic progression. In order to better predict sites of metastases, here we demonstrate modeling of the patterned migration of metastasis. Methods: We reviewed the clinical history of 453 breast cancer patients from Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center who were non-metastatic at diagnosis but developed metastasis over time. We used the variables of organ site of metastases as well as time to create a Markov chain model of metastasis. We illustrate the probabilities of metastasis occurring at a given anatomic site together with the probability of spread to additional sites. Results: Based on the clinical histories of 453 breast cancer patients who developed metastasis, we have learned (i) how to create the Markov transition matrix governing the probabilities of cancer progression from site to site; (ii) how to create a systemic network diagram governing disease progression modeled as a random walk on a directed graph; (iii) how to classify metastatic sites as ‘sponges’ that tend to only receive cancer cells or ‘spreaders’ that receive and release them; (iv) how to model the time-scales of disease progression as a Weibull probability distribution function; (v) how to perform Monte Carlo simulations of disease progression; and (vi) how to interpret disease progression as an entropy-increasing stochastic process. Conclusion: Based on our modeling, metastatic spread may follow predictable pathways. Mapping metastasis not simply by organ site, but by function as either a ‘spreader’ or ‘sponge’ fundamentally reframes our understanding of metastatic processes. This model serves as a novel platform from which we may integrate the evolving genomic landscape that drives cancer metastasis. PS-OC Trans-Network Project Grant Award for “Data Assimilation and ensemble statistical forecasting methods applied to the MSKCC longitudinal metastatic breast cancer cohort.”.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Seismic Event Characterization Using Full Moment Tensors on the Hypersphere

Moment tensor solutions provide insights into the deformation that has occurred in the source region of a seismic event and are therefore of great value in identifying different types of seismic sources, such as when monitoring for underground nuclear tests. Despite this utility, inversion of waveforms recorded by seismometers for their full seismic moment tensor is not yet routine, and development of robust methods to classify events based on this information is in its infancy. Here, we assemble an inventory of 1405 full moment tensor solutions that include explosive, earthquake, and collapse events, and investigate the use of anisotropic probability distribution functions on the 5D hypersphere to discriminate between these sources. Using a Bayesian classifier, we obtain optimal success rates of 98.4% across all events and demonstrate that modification of the prior probabilities provides a natural way to alter the balance between not missing desirable events (such as explosions) versus misclassifying large numbers of undesired events (such as earthquakes). The approach is specifically designed to progress from traditional, bipolar event screening metrics to more generalized event identification across multiple types of seismic sources. Despite current databases containing insufficient numbers of events to definitively demonstrate at present, we also find intriguing evidence of subgroupings within individual source populations on the hypersphere, for example, between chemical and nuclear explosions, raising the potential possibility of discriminating between these event types in the future.

Geosciences↗

DOE OSTI2012

Physics of Intrinsic Rotation in Flux-Driven ITG Turbulence

Global, heat flux-driven ITG gyrokinetic simulations which manifest the formation of macroscopic, mean toroidal flow profiles with peak thermal Mach number 0.05, are reported. Both a particle-in-cell (XGC1p) and a semi-Lagrangian (GYSELA) approach are utilized without a priori assumptions of scale-separation between turbulence and mean fields. Flux-driven ITG simulations with different edge flow boundary conditions show in both approaches the development of net unidirectional intrinsic rotation in the co-current direction. Intrinsic torque is shown to scale approximately linearly with the inverse scale length of the ion temperature gradient. External momentum input is shown to effectively cancel the intrinsic rotation profile, thus confirming the existence of a local residual stress and intrinsic torque. Fluctuation intensity, intrinsic torque and mean flow are demonstrated to develop inwards from the boundary. The measured correlations between residual stress and two fluctuation spectrum symmetry breakers, namely E x B shear and intensity gradient, are similar. Avalanches of (positive) heat flux, which propagate either outwards or inwards, are correlated with avalanches of (negative) parallel momentum flux, so that outward transport of heat and inward transport of parallel momentum are correlated and mediated by avalanches. The probability distribution functions of the outward heat flux and the inward momentum flux show strong structural similarity

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exploring the non-Gaussianity of the cosmic infrared background and its weak gravitational lensing

ABSTRACT Gravitational lensing deflects the paths of photons, altering the statistics of cosmic backgrounds and distorting their information content. We take the cosmic infrared background (CIB), which provides plentiful information about galaxy formation and evolution, as an example to probe the effect of lensing on non-Gaussian statistics. Using the Websky simulations, we first quantify the non-Gaussianity of the CIB, revealing additional detail on top of its well-measured power spectrum. To achieve this, we use needlet-like multipole-band filters to calculate the variance and higher-point correlations. Using our simulations, we show the two-, three- and four-point spectra, and compare our calculated power spectra and bispectra to Planck values. We then lens the CIB, shell-by-shell with corresponding convergence maps, to capture the broad redshift extent of both the CIB and its lensing convergence. The lensing of the CIB changes the three- and four-point functions by a few tens of per cent at large scales, unlike with the power spectrum, which changes by less than two per cent. We expand our analyses to encompass the full intensity probability distribution functions (PDFs) involving all n-point correlations as a function of scale. In particular, we use the relative entropy between lensed and unlensed PDFs to create a spectrum of templates that can allow estimation of lensing. The underlying CIB model is missing the important role of star bursting, which we test by adding a stochastic lognormal term to the intensity distributions. The novel aspects of our filtering and lensing pipeline should prove useful for any radiant background, including line intensity maps.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

CFD-DEM study of bubble properties in a cylindrical fluidized bed of Geldart Group D particles and comparison with prior MRI data

Numerical simulations of a freely bubbling cylindrical fluidized bed are carried out using a coupled computational fluid dynamics and discrete element method (CFD-DEM) model and compared to recent experimental data. The experiments were conducted using high-resolution and high-frequency magnetic resonance imaging providing high-fidelity data of the bubbling within a central 10 mm slice of the bed. Qualitatively, we nd more regular (i.e., less chaotic) structures in the simulated beds than observed experimentally. Quantitatively, however, the bubble diameter and number of bubbles as a function of height within the bed is predicted well by the base model. Unfortunately, the regularity in the simulations manifests as a considerable discrepancy in the speed of the (dense) emulsion phase. The simulated velocity probability distribution functions show an accumulation of low-speed regions and deficiency of high-speed regions. A simple parametric study of the base model is also carried out considering many of the most common CFD-DEM modeling parameters. It is found that the fluid grid size, geometry resolution, transfer kernel and drag law did not have a significant effect on bubble or particle dynamics.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2013

Analysis of the influence of external biasing on Texas Helimak turbulence

We analyze alterations on the electrostatic turbulence in experiments with imposed bias to control the plasma radial electric field in Texas Helimak (K. W. Gentle and H. He, Plasma Sci. Technol. 10, 284 (2008)), a toroidal plasma device with a one-dimensional equilibrium, magnetic curvature, and shear. Comparing discharges from different biased potentials, we identify, in a roughly uniform gradient region, a continuous variation from low turbulence level and narrower frequency spectra, for negative bias, to high turbulence level and broadband spectra for positive bias. Overall, we distinguish two kinds of perturbed turbulence, classified according to their intensity, spectral, statistical, and recurrence properties. When the bias is positive, the turbulence shows enhanced and broadband spectra with non Gaussian probability distribution functions having noticeable long tails (extreme events) similar to the turbulence in tokamak scrape-off layer. On the other hand, negative bias reduces the turbulence level and decreases the spectrum widths. Also for negative bias, we found large frequency widths whenever the coupling between drift waves and the sheared plasma flow is fast enough to allow the enhancement of sidebands modes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Unraveling the origin of black holes from effective spin measurements with LIGO-Virgo

We investigate how to use information on the effective spin parameter of binary black hole mergers from the LIGO-Virgo gravitational wave detections to discriminate the origin of the merging black holes. We calculate the expected probability distribution function for the effective spin parameter for primordial black holes. Using LIGO-Virgo observations, we then calculate odds ratios for different models for the distribution of black holes' spin magnitude and alignment. We evaluate the posterior probability density for a possible mixture of astrophysical and primordial black holes as emerging from current data, and calculate the number of future merger events needed to discriminate different spin and alignment models at a given level of statistical significance.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2010

Features and non-Gaussianity from inflationary particle production

Interactions between the inflaton and any additional fields can lead to isolated bursts of particle production during inflation (for example from parametric resonance or a phase transition). Inflationary particle production leaves localized features in the spectrum and bispectrum of the observable cosmological fluctuations, via the Infra-Red (IR) cascading mechanism. We focus on a simple prototype interaction g{sup 2}({phi}-{phi}{sub 0}){sup 2{chi}2} between the inflaton, {phi}, and isoinflaton, {chi}; extending previous work on this model in two directions. First, we quantify the magnitude of the produced non-Gaussianity by extracting the moments of the probability distribution function from lattice field theory simulations. We argue that the bispectrum feature from particle production might be observable for reasonable values of the coupling, g{sup 2}. Second, we develop a detailed analytical theory of particle production and IR cascading during inflation, which is in excellent agreement with numerical simulations. Our formalism improves significantly on previous approaches by consistently incorporating both the expansion of the universe and also metric perturbations. We use this new formalism to estimate the shape of the bispectrum from particle production, showing this to be distinguishable from other mechanisms that predict large non-Gaussianity.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2017

The Role of Diffusion in the Transport of Energetic Electrons during Solar Flares

The transport of the energy contained in suprathermal electrons in solar flares plays a key role in our understanding of many aspects of flare physics, from the spatial distributions of hard X-ray emission and energy deposition in the ambient atmosphere to global energetics. Historically the transport of these particles has been largely treated through a deterministic approach, in which first-order secular energy loss to electrons in the ambient target is treated as the dominant effect, with second-order diffusive terms (in both energy and angle) generally being either treated as a small correction or even neglected. Here, we critically analyze this approach, and we show that spatial diffusion through pitch-angle scattering necessarily plays a very significant role in the transport of electrons. We further show that a satisfactory treatment of the diffusion process requires consideration of non-local effects, so that the electron flux depends not just on the local gradient of the electron distribution function but on the value of this gradient within an extended region encompassing a significant fraction of a mean free path. Our analysis applies generally to pitch-angle scattering by a variety of mechanisms, from Coulomb collisions to turbulent scattering. We further show that the spatial transport of electrons along the magnetic field of a flaring loop can be modeled rather effectively as a Continuous Time Random Walk with velocity-dependent probability distribution functions of jump sizes and occurrences, both of which can be expressed in terms of the scattering mean free path.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2011

LUMINOSITY DISTRIBUTION OF GAMMA-RAY BURST HOST GALAXIES AT REDSHIFT z = 1 IN COSMOLOGICAL SMOOTHED PARTICLE HYDRODYNAMIC SIMULATIONS: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE METALLICITY DEPENDENCE OF GRBs

We study the relationship between the metallicity of gamma-ray burst (GRB) progenitors and the probability distribution function (PDF) of GRB host galaxies as a function of luminosity using cosmological hydrodynamic simulations of galaxy formation. We impose a maximum limit to the gas metallicity in which GRBs can occur and examine how the predicted luminosity PDF of GRB host galaxies changes in the simulation. We perform the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and show that the result from our simulation agrees with the observed luminosity PDF of core-collapse supernovae (SNe) host galaxies when we assume that the core-collapse SNe trace star formation. When we assume that GRBs occur only in a low-metallicity environment with Z {approx}< 0.1 Z{sub sun}, GRBs occur in lower luminosity galaxies, and the simulated luminosity PDF becomes quantitatively consistent with the observed one. The observational bias against the host galaxies of optically dark GRBs owing to dust extinction may be another reason for the lower luminosities of GRB host galaxies, but the observed luminosity PDF of GRB host galaxies cannot be reproduced solely by the dust bias in our simulation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

What Sets the Star Formation Rate of Molecular Clouds? The Density Distribution as a Fingerprint of Compression and Expansion Rates

We use a suite of 3D simulations of star-forming molecular clouds, with and without stellar feedback, magnetic fields, and driven turbulence, to study the compression and expansion rates of the gas as functions of density. We show that, around the mean density, supersonic turbulence promotes rough equilibrium between the amounts of compressing and expanding gas, consistent with continuous gas cycling between high- and low-density states. We find that the inclusion of protostellar jets produces rapidly expanding and compressing low-density gas. We find that the gas mass flux peaks at the transition between the lognormal and power-law forms of the density probability distribution function (PDF). This is consistent with the transition density tracking the post-shock density, which promotes an enhancement of mass at this density (i.e., shock compression and filament formation). At high densities, the gas dynamics are dominated by self-gravity: the compression rate in all of our runs matches the rate of the run with only gravity, suggesting that processes other than self-gravity have little effect at these densities. The net gas mass flux becomes constant at a density below the sink formation threshold, where it equals the star formation rate. The density at which the net gas mass flux equals the star formation rate is one order of magnitude lower than our sink threshold density, corresponds to the formation of the second power-law tail in the density PDF, and sets the overall star formation rates of these simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1967

Distributed errors in orbit transfer.

Probability distribution errors effect in linear and planar impulse orbital transfers, considering angular orientation and impulsive velocity

IMPULSE ORBITAL TRANSFER↗

DOE OSTI2016

Neutron Number Probability Distributions in a Subcritical System Using the Forward Master Equation

The subject of this paper is the determination of the equilibrium probability distribution function (PDF) of the neutron population within a subcritical multiplying system in the presence of an intrinsic random source as a result of spontaneous fission (SF). Such systems are strongly stochastic and low order moments such as the mean and variance of the neutron number are not sufficient to characterize the true state of the neutron population. We base our work on the forward Master equation in a lumped model formulation for P{sub n} (t), n = 0, 1, 2,..., the probability of there existing η neutrons at time t and obtain solutions for the steady state distributions. The key parameters in this model, neutron lifetime and fission probability, are rigorously obtained by numerically solving the k-eigenvalue problem in a one-dimensional spherical system and using standard definitions of lumped parameters in terms of production and loss rates in finite systems. Previous work has examined single-chain PDFs (a single fission and the resulting progeny) for neutrons, uncoupled neutron-photon single-chain PDFs, both using a lumped backward Master equation formulation, as well as neutron PDFs in supercritical systems. In this paper, we analyze strictly subcritical systems, for which we compare analytically derived solutions with numerical computations for different multiplicity distribution models. For subcritical systems where the neutron population remains finite at steady state, we show that the forward Master equation can be very efficiently solved numerically to obtain the equilibrium distributions. Finally, this work is motivated by potential application to passive interrogation for detection of diverted nuclear materials as well to criticality safety. The equilibrium neutron number probability distribution in subcritical systems has been numerically investigated for several models of the induced and spontaneous fission multiplicity distribution. A well known approximate but closed form solution, namely the quadratic model, was shown to be unacceptably accurate for subcritical media. The matrix inversion and the recursion methods agree well and were benchmarked with the binary fission model, but the recursion formulation proves far more computationally efficient. A qualitative change in the shape of the neutron PDF is observed for increasing source strength, as expected, and a transition from a stochastic to a deterministic system is expected for a sufficiently strong source. We are currently extending this approach to obtain the equilibrium joint distribution of neutrons within the system and those that have leaked, to explicitly represent the neutron PDF as observed by an external detector. (authors)

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Comparison of beam emission spectroscopy and gas puff imaging edge fluctuation measurements in National Spherical Torus Experiment

In this study, the close physical proximity of the Gas Puff Imaging (GPI) and Beam Emission Spectroscopy (BES) diagnostics on the National Spherical torus Experiment (NSTX) is leveraged to directly compare fluctuation measurements, and to study the local effects of the GPI neutral deuterium puff during H-mode plasmas without large Edge Localized Modes. The GPI and BES views on NSTX provide partially overlapping coverage of the edge and scrape-off layer (SOL) regions above the outboard midplane. The separation in the toroidal direction is 16°, and field lines passing through diagnostic views are separated by ∼20 cm in the direction perpendicular to the magnetic field. Strong cross-correlation is observed, and strong cross-coherence is seen for frequencies between 5 and 15 kHz. Also, probability distribution functions of fluctuations measured ∼3 cm inside the separatrix exhibit only minor deviations from a normal distribution for both diagnostics, and good agreement between correlation length estimates, decorrelation times, and structure velocities is found at the ±40% level. While the two instruments agree closely in many respects, some discrepancies are observed. Most notably, GPI normalized fluctuation levels exceed BES fluctuations by a factor of ∼9. BES mean intensity is found to be sensitive to the GPI neutral gas puff, and BES normalized fluctuation levels for frequencies between 1 and 10 kHz are observed to increase during the GPI puff.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2011

STOCHASTIC STAR FORMATION AND A (NEARLY) UNIFORM STELLAR INITIAL MASS FUNCTION

Recent observations indicate a lower H{alpha} to FUV ratio in dwarf galaxies than in brighter systems, a trend that could be explained by a truncated and/or steeper initial mass function (IMF) in small galaxies. However, at low star formation rates (SFRs), the H{alpha} to FUV ratio can vary due to stochastic sampling even for a universal IMF, a hypothesis that has, prior to this work, received limited investigation. Using SLUG, a fully stochastic code for synthetic photometry in star clusters and galaxies, we compare the H{alpha} and FUV luminosity in a sample of {approx}450 nearby galaxies with models drawn from a universal Kroupa IMF and a modified IMF, the integrated galactic initial mass function (IGIMF). Once random sampling and time evolution are included, a Kroupa IMF convolved with the cluster mass function (CMF) reproduces the observed H{alpha} distribution at all FUV luminosities, while a truncated IMF as implemented in current IGIMF models underpredicts the H{alpha} luminosity by more than an order of magnitude at the lowest SFRs. We conclude that the observed luminosity is the result of the joint probability distribution function of the SFR, CMF, and a universal IMF, consistent with parts of the IGIMF theory, but that a truncation in the IMF in clusters is inconsistent with the observations. Future work will examine stochastic star formation and its time dependence in detail to study whether random sampling can explain other observations that suggest a varying IMF.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗