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At least 217 records · Page 12

The Use of the Satellite Breakup Risk Assessment Model (SBRAM) to Characterize Collision Risk to Manned Spacecraft

NASA uses environment models such as ORDEM96 to characterize the long-term orbital debris collision hazard for spacecraft in LEO. Occasionally, however, there are breakups of satellites or rocket bodies that create enhanced collision hazard for a period of time. This enhanced collision hazard can pose increased risks to space operations - especially those involving manned missions where the tolerance for risk is very low. NASA has developed SBRAM to simulate the enhanced debris environment in the days and weeks that follow such a breakup. This simulation provides the kind of risk probabilities that can be used by mission planners to consider if changes are warranted for the mission. Announcements of breakups come to NASA from US Space Command as soon as they are identified. The pre-breakup orbit and time of breakup are used to determine the initial conditions of the explosion. SBRAM uses the latest explosion models developed at NASA to simulate a debris cloud for the breakup. The model uses a Monte Carlo technique to create a random debris cloud from the probability distributions in the breakup model. Each piece of debris randomly created in the cloud is propagated in a deterministic manner to include the effects of drag and other orbital perturbations. The detailed geometry of each simulated close approach to the target spacecraft is noted and logged and the collision probability is computed using an estimated probability density in down-range and cross-range positions of both the target spacecraft and debris object. The collision probability is computed from the overlap of these probability densities for each close-approach geometry and summed over all computed conjunctions. Cloud propagation runs over the desired time interval are then repeated until the scale of the collision risk can be estimated to a desired precision. This paper presents an overview of the SBRAM model and a number of examples, both real and hypothetical, to demonstrate its use. In addition, a number of different examples are shown how the data can be used by decision makers on issues such as spacecraft orientation and timing of EVAs.

Matney, Mark J.↗

Theory of atomic transitions

Transition probabilities of atomic collisions, elastic scattering of electrons, and excitation functions

ELECTRON COLLISION↗

A special class of planetary collisions - Theory and evidence

Collisions between comparable-sized planetary bodies are a special class of collisions, rarer than other collisions, but producing interesting products, such as unfractured dumbbell-shaped contact binaries, partly brecciated elongated bodies, totally brecciated spheroidal bodies, and perhaps co-orbiting binary pairs or swarms. Qualitative and rough quantitative theories are presented to indicate collision outcomes. Contact binaries or fractured elongated bodies as large as tens or hundreds of kilometers across can be produced - larger than hitherto considered. Lengths about 20 to 200 km are most probable for igneous or ordinary chondritic elongated objects formed by collision, but other lengths could result from tidal evolution of pairs. Though most elongated asteroids are probably collision fragments, as usually assumed, some may instead be accretionary products. Trojan asteroid 624 Hektor is a candidate. Some polymict, genomict, and monomict brecciated meteorites may be better explained by large-scale fragmentation and immediate gravitational re-assembly of parent bodies than by local-scale processes of cratering on parent-body surfaces.

Hartmann, W. K.↗

Corrections to vibrational transition probabilities calculated from a three-dimensional model.

Corrections to the collision-induced vibration transition probability calculated by Hansen and Pearson from a three-dimensional semiclassical model are examined. These corrections come from the retention of higher order terms in the expansion of the interaction potential and the use of the actual value of the deflection angle in the calculation of the transition probability. It is found that the contribution to the transition cross section from previously neglected potential terms can be significant for short range potentials and for the large relative collision velocities encountered at high temperatures. The correction to the transition cross section obtained from the use of actual deflection angles will not be appreciable unless the change in the rotational quantum number is large.

Stallcop, J. R.↗

Appendix A: NAS-Wide Encounter Rate Evaluation Using Historical Radar Data and the Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES)

Regulations that establish operational and performance requirements for unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) are being developed by a consortium of government, industry and academic institutions. Those requirements will apply to detect-and-avoid (DAA) systems and other equipment necessary to integrate UAS with the National Airspace System (NAS) and are determined according to their contribution to the overall level of safety required to operate in the airspace. Several key gaps must be addressed in order to link equipment requirements to an airspace level of safety. Foremost among these is the calculation of the relative effectiveness of a particular system to mitigate violations of a separation standard with other aircraft, which is known as the systems risk ratio. The risk ratio is calculated as the probability of mid-air collision with a DAA system divided by the probability of mid-air collision without a DAA system. The risk ratio of a DAA system, in combination with the risk ratios of other collision avoidance mitigations, will determine the overall safety of the airspace measured in terms of the number of mid-air collisions per flight hour. Defining the required risk ratio that the DAA system needs to ensure the safety of the airspace requires an evaluation of the current airspace and a simulated evaluation that incorporates UAS aerodynamic performance and the mission characteristics of future UAS operations that are projected to be conducted in areas that interact with current operations. These evaluations will produce the frequency of encounters that currently exist in the airspace and those that could be generated with the introduction of UAS. Together, the frequency of encounters, an evaluation of unmitigated risk of collision, and a desired level of safety of the airspace will yield a required risk ratio of the DAA system. This study will focus on evaluating the encounter rates between aircraft based on historical radar data and encounter rates that could occur based on simulated UAS missions.

Unmanned Aircraft Systems↗

Accurate Determination of Comet and Asteroid Orbits Leading to Collision With Earth

Movements of the celestial bodies in our solar system inspired Isaac Newton to work out his profound laws of gravitation and motion; with one or two notable exceptions, all of those objects move as Newton said they would. But normally harmonious orbital motion is accompanied by the risk of collision, which can be cataclysmic. The Earth s moon is thought to have been produced by such an event, and we recently witnessed magnificent bombardments of Jupiter by several pieces of what was once Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9. Other comets or asteroids may have met the Earth with such violence that dinosaurs and other forms of life became extinct; it is this possibility that causes us to ask how the human species might avoid a similar catastrophe, and the answer requires a thorough understanding of orbital motion. The two red square flags with black square centers displayed are internationally recognized as a warning of an impending hurricane. Mariners and coastal residents who know the meaning of this symbol and the signs evident in the sky and ocean can act in advance to try to protect lives and property; someone who is unfamiliar with the warning signs or chooses to ignore them is in much greater jeopardy. Although collisions between Earth and large comets or asteroids occur much less frequently than landfall of a hurricane, it is imperative that we learn to identify the harbingers of such collisions by careful examination of an object s path. An accurate determination of the orbit of a comet or asteroid is necessary in order to know if, when, and where on the Earth s surface a collision will occur. Generally speaking, the longer the warning time, the better the chance of being able to plan and execute action to prevent a collision. The more accurate the determination of an orbit, the less likely such action will be wasted effort or, what is worse, an effort that increases rather than decreases the probability of a collision. Conditions necessary for a collision to occur are discussed, and warning times for long-period comets and near-Earth asteroids are presented.

Roithmayr, Carlos M.↗

Semiclassical vibration-rotation transition probabilities for motion in molecular state averaged potentials.

Collision-induced vibration-rotation transition probabilities are calculated from a semiclassical three-dimensional model, in which the collision trajectory is determined by the classical motion in the interaction potential that is averaged over the molecular rotational state, and compared with those for which the motion is governed by a spherically averaged potential. For molecules that are in highly excited rotational states, thus dominating the vibrational relaxation rate at high temperature, it is found that the transition probability for rotational state averaging is smaller than that for spherical averaging. For typical collisions, the transition cross section is decreased by a factor of about 1.5 to 2.

Stallcop, J. R.↗

Monte Carlo study of vibrational relaxation processes

A new model is proposed for the computation of vibrational nonequilibrium in the direct simulation Monte Carlo method (DSMC). This model permits level to level vibrational transitions for the first time in a Monte Carlo flowfield simulation. The model follows the Landau-Teller theory for a harmonic oscillator in which the rates of transition are related to an experimental correlation for the vibrational relaxation time. The usual method for simulating such processes in the DSMC technique applies a constant exchange probability to each collision and the vibrational energy is treated as a continuum. A comparison of these two methods is made for the flow of nitrogen over a wedge. Significant differences exist for the vibrational temperatures computed. These arise as a consequence of the incorrect application of a constant exchange probability in the old method. It is found that the numerical performances of the two vibrational relaxation models are equal.

Boyd, Iain D.↗

Vibration-translation energy transfer in anharmonic diatomic molecules. 1: A critical evaluation of the semiclassical approximation

The semiclassical approximation is applied to anharmonic diatomic oscillators in excited initial states. Multistate numerical solutions giving the vibrational transition probabilities for collinear collisions with an inert atom are compared with equivalent, exact quantum-mechanical calculations. Several symmetrization methods are shown to correlate accurately the predictions of both theories for all initial states, transitions, and molecular types tested, but only if coupling of the oscillator motion and the classical trajectory of the incident particle is considered. In anharmonic heteronuclear molecules, the customary semiclassical method of computing the classical trajectory independently leads to transition probabilities with anomalous low-energy resonances. Proper accounting of the effects of oscillator compression and recoil on the incident particle trajectory removes the anomalies and restores the applicability of the semiclassical approximation.

Mckenzie, R. L.↗

Vibration-translation energy transfer in anharmonic diatomic molecules. I - A comparative evaluation of the semiclassical approximation

The semiclassical approximation (quantum oscillator, classical path) is applied to anharmonic diatomic oscillators in excited initial states. Multistate numerical solutions giving the vibrational transition probabilities for collinear collisions with an inert atom are compared with equivalent, exact quantum-mechanical calculations. Several symmetrization methods are shown to correlate accurately the predictions of both theories for all initial states, transitions, and molecular types tested, but only if coupling of the oscillator motion and the classical trajectory of the incident particle is considered. In anharmonic heteronuclear molecules, the customary semiclassical method of computing the classical trajectory independently leads to transition probabilities with anomalous low-energy resonances. Proper accounting of the effects of oscillator compression and recoil on the incident particle trajectory removes the anomalies and restores the applicability of the semiclassical approximation.

Mckenzie, R. L.↗

A post-core-collapse model for the nucleus of M33

A model for the post-collapse core of M33 is proposed. By analogy with globular clusters, the formation of tight binary systems powers the reexpansion of the core, and it is expected that low-mass X-ray binaries form at a rate about equal to that of all galactic globular clusters combined. About a dozen such binaries should be present, and their combined emission may explain the large and enigmatic unresolved X-ray emission from the nucleus of M33. In addition, tidal formation of cataclysmic binaries may lead to a nova rate of more than about one per century. Numerous blue stragglers have probably formed through mergers caused by stellar collisions, but their density is probably too low to explain the blue color of the nucleus. Young stars are the likely cause for the color, and their presence may complicate the simple dynamical picture presented here.

Hernquist, Lars↗

Test of Sigmund scaling for low collision energies

A scaling law that describes the most probable vibrorotational excitation in ion-molecule collisions has recently been extended by Sigmund (1981) to cover polyatomic targets. The predictions of this scaling law are examined for collisions of Cl(-) and K(+) with the targets O2, N2, CO, CO2, and CH4 in the energy range 50-200 eV. The experimental results do not all scale according to the theory. The study does demonstrate the usefulness of the scaling variables when examining the most probable vibrorotational excitation in ion-molecule collisions. A collection of isoelectronic scattering results is presented.

Vedder, M.↗

MultiLayer Clustered Sampling (MLCS) technique for near-earth asteroid impact hazard assessment

Because of planetary encounters, the motion of near-Earth asteroids is chaotic and small differences in the initial conditions tend to diverge exponentially. Linear approximations for propagating orbital uncertainties can lead to inaccurate estimates of the probability of an Earth collision. We present a novel fully nonlinear strategy for estimating the probability of an asteroid impact using sequential Monte Carlo layers. The method first explores a low-resolution layer to locate potentially relevant regions. Then, we conduct localized searches on deeper layers with higher resolution. The method retains the accuracy of brute-force Monte Carlo sampling while reducing the computational cost by only sampling relevant regions.

Farnocchia, Davide↗

Study of the potential for improving the economics of hydrogen liquefaction through the use of centrifugal compressors and the addition of a heavy water plant

An approach to the liquefaction of hydrogen was developed which permits the application of standard centrifugal compressors in place of reciprocating machines. A second fluid, such as propane, is added to the hydrogen prior to compression to form a mixture having a molecular weight much greater than that of hydrogen alone, so that a standard centrifugal compressor can be used. After compression, the mixture is cooled to cryogenic temperature levels where the propane condenses out of the mixture and is separated as a liquid. Since a small amount of deuterium is produced during hydrogen liquefaction, the potential of recovering deuterium and selling it as a co-product was investigated. Deuterium, in the form of heavy water, can be used in certain nuclear reactors as a neutron moderator to reduce the neutron velocity and enhance the probability of neutron collision with uranium nucleii.

Baker, C. R.↗

Meteorites in meteorites - Evidence for mixing among the asteroids

Inclusions of one type of meteorite enclosed in another have been found in several gas-rich meteorites, unequilibrated chondrites and mesosiderites. The inclusions in all but one case are chondritic; a majority are mineralogically and isotopically similar to carbonaceous chondrites. These meteorite mixtures most probably resulted from collisions among asteroids.

Wilkening, L. L.↗

Electron impact excitation of highly charged sodium-like ions

Optical transition probabilities and electron collision strengths for Ca X, Fe XVI, Zn XX, Kr XXVI and Mo XXXII are calculated for transitions between n equal to 3 and n equal to 4 levels. The calculations neglect relativistic effects on the radial functions. A semi-empirical approach provides wave functions of the excited states; a distorted wave function without exchange is employed to obtain the excitation cross sections. The density dependence of the relative intensities of certain emission lines in the sodium isoelectronic sequence is also discussed.

Blaha, M.↗

Level shifts and inelastic electron scattering in dense plasmas

A completely quantum mechanical formalism has been developed to describe the high density plasma effects on fundamental atomic parameters. Both the bound and free electrons are treated by a method which in principle is similar to Hartree's self-consistent field method. The free plasma electrons' wavefunction is obtained from the Schroedinger equation with the effective potential representing the spherically averaged Coulomb interaction with bound and free electrons. Results are given for level shifts, coefficients of transition probabilities, and electron collision cross sections of Ne(9+) for temperatures of 200 and 500 eV for an electron density range of 1-6 x 10 to the 24th per cu cm.

Davis, J.↗