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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12

Crustal Scale Travel Time Prediction with the SALSA3D Framework and Machine Learning

The SALSA3D project aims to improve our models used in travel time prediction. The current version uses tomographic modeling for propagation through the Earth’s mantle because of the large number (order of millions) of observations of seismic phases which primarily traverse the Earth’s mantle and the ability to pose the travel time problem as a set of linear equations. However, all seismic rays traverse the crust to reach receivers at the surface and therefore models of propagation through the crust are required. Therefore, the primary motivation for this study is to explore how to increase the scope of the SALSA3D project to phases which travel primarily through the crust. In this report, we evaluate new, machine learning based and physics-based methods to model these travel times for integration into the SALSA3D framework. Our results suggest that using our existing physics-based travel time tomography method is a viable approach for the regional to global scale, but better predictive capabilities can be achieved through a neural network trained on the region of interest for near-regional offsets. We suggest future iterations of SALSA3D should incorporate machine learning tools such as Physics-Informed Neural Networks or Bayesian Neural Networks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Cost Efficient and Highly Weather-Resistant Solar Panel Backsheet Produced through Continuous Co-Extrusion Processing

The efficient generation and delivery of ‘clean energy” through photovoltaic (PV) technology relies heavily on the cost, performance and reliability of solar panels, along with the individual components used in assembly of those panels. In order to continue towards the Department of Energy’s (DOE) goals of driving costs down, the lifetime of high-output power generation equipment (i.e. solar modules) must be extended to reduce costs associated with power output degradation and replacement of failed or degraded panels. One of the major sources of module failures in the past 30 years has been the failure of the solar panel backsheet. Failure of this component causes severe output losses due to oxidation and yellowing of the module while creating safety concerns as the major electrical insulation of the module is compromised. Tomark-Worthen LLC was formed in 2012 with the goal of designing and manufacturing novel PV backsheets and encapsulants that would be produced in the United States of America and exceed expectations of domestic and international module producers. These backsheets would improve upon known backsheet design failures (i.e. Isovoltaic’s AAA backsheet) and create domestic manufacturing jobs in the PV sector. This goal became a reality with a first-generation product in 2018 and now, with the support of the DOE, Tomark-Worthen has launched a second-generation product known as PhotoMark® Reflections™ 205-3 and 360-3. This 2+ year effort began in late 2017 with a screening of potential polymeric materials and backsheet structural designs. Performance evaluations of each material provided the necessary data needed to select the proper material combinations and move forward into the design of the manufacturing process. These decisions were made by teaming with a local university, well-respected government laboratories, and private research organizations who provided the tools necessary to predict long-term performance of these materials in much shorter periods of time. Once the go/no-go criteria were met at the mid-point of the project, the effort transitioned to predicting 30+ year performance, achieving certifications, and improving manufacturing efficiencies designed to lower costs in order to be competitive in a cost-driven market. Major project accomplishments include recognition of the new backsheet by Underwriters Laboratories (UL) and international certification for 1000V and 1500V modules by TUV Sud. Both 1000V and 1500V products have been proven on several module manufacturing lines and initial customer orders have been received by both domestic and international module producers. Accelerated exposure testing has shown that the performance of this backsheet exceeds the prior polyamide-based backsheet known to fail in the field. Cost-models and initial customer orders have shown the ability to produce this backsheet at a cost acceptable to many domestic manufacturers, while International costs for standard backsheet remains extremely low. Tomark-Worthen remains one of the only U.S. companies manufacturing backsheet domestically and this has drawn interest from many domestic module manufacturers looking to improve their material supply logistics by avoiding long lead times and custom’s headaches while avoiding current tariffs on Chinese-made components. Along with the launch of a new PV backsheet, this project has provided a critical deliverable to the PV R&D community. This deliverable is the knowledge that not all polyamide-containing backsheets are doomed to failure as the earlier versions did. There has been a fear amongst the PV community to consider these materials due to the failure of one design. This effort has brought a new level of interest to the scientific community as it has been shown that polyamides can be used successfully in a well-designed backsheet. As we move forward from this project, we are excited to see how backsheet technology and manufacturing in the U.S. will continue to progress and grow.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

TGCM: (T)rait, (G)ene, and (C)rop Growth (M)odel Directed Targeted Gene Characterization in Sorghum (Final Technical Report)

Understanding which genes control important crop traits could help scientists develop better bioenergy and food crops more efficiently. However, plant genomes contain tens of thousands of genes, and testing each one individually is expensive and time-consuming. This project developed computational tools to predict which genes are most likely to matter, allowing researchers to focus their efforts where they will have the greatest impact. This project developed and validated integrated approaches combining machine learning, quantitative genetics, and crop growth modeling to improve the efficiency of functional gene characterization in sorghum (Sorghum bicolor), a critical bioenergy and food security crop. The research addressed a fundamental challenge in plant biology: the majority of genes in plant genomes lack experimentally validated functions, making it difficult to prioritize which genes to study using resource-intensive reverse genetics approaches.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Water4Energy Step-1 Band-M Ready-to-Train Samples for TVA Weeks-to-Years Prediction, Version 0

AI-ready Band-M (monthly) labelled training pack for the Water4Energy Genesis Task-1 project on weeks-to-years prediction of Tennessee Valley temperature and precipitation. The deposit includes leakage-aware issue-time samples (samples_M_v0.nc; N=486), train-only scalers, issue-time split table, supporting monthly panels, and Python generation scripts to recreate the pack from the companion Tier-1 raw observation collection (https://doi.org/10.13139/ORNLNCCS/3398576). Each sample pairs a 12-month lookback of teleconnection indices and SST box anomalies with TVA-mean ERA5 anomaly targets (t2m, tp, msl) at leads 1–3 months.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Towards Predictive Plasma Science and Engineering through Revolutionary Multi-Scale Algorithms and Models (Final Report)

This report describes the high-level accomplishments from the Plasma Science and Engineering Grand Challenge LDRD at Sandia National Laboratories. The Laboratory has a need to demonstrate predictive capabilities to model plasma phenomena in order to rapidly accelerate engineering development in several mission areas. The purpose of this Grand Challenge LDRD was to advance the fundamental models, methods, and algorithms along with supporting electrode science foundation to enable a revolutionary shift towards predictive plasma engineering design principles. This project integrated the SNL knowledge base in computer science, plasma physics, materials science, applied mathematics, and relevant application engineering to establish new cross-laboratory collaborations on these topics. As an initial exemplar, this project focused efforts on improving multi-scale modeling capabilities that are utilized to predict the electrical power delivery on large-scale pulsed power accelerators. Specifically, this LDRD was structured into three primary research thrusts that, when integrated, enable complex simulations of these devices: (1) the exploration of multi-scale models describing the desorption of contaminants from pulsed power electrodes, (2) the development of improved algorithms and code technologies to treat the multi-physics phenomena required to predict device performance, and (3) the creation of a rigorous verification and validation infrastructure to evaluate the codes and models across a range of challenge problems. These components were integrated into initial demonstrations of the largest simulations of multi-level vacuum power flow completed to-date, executed on the leading HPC computing machines available in the NNSA complex today. These preliminary studies indicate relevant pulsed power engineering design simulations can now be completed in (of order) several days, a significant improvement over pre-LDRD levels of performance.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Centralized AI Lakehouse Framework for Brain Tumor MRI Classification and Segmentation, University KPI Forecasting, and Water Potability Prediction

In many university and healthcare projects, models are built for very different data types such as tables, institutional time series, and medical images, but they are deployed as separate applications. In this work, that separation made testing and maintenance difficult because each module had its own pipeline and runtime requirements. This paper presents an integrated AI lakehouse-style implementation that runs three model pipelines inside one containerized backend. For medical imaging, we used MRI datasets from IEEE DataPort: a four-class classification set with 7012 images (5708 train/1304 test) and a segmentation set with 3063 image–mask pairs. The classification model (ResNet50 transfer learning) is evaluated using a proper train–validation–test protocol across multiple splits (80/10/10, 70/10/20, 60/10/30, and 10/30/60), achieving a test accuracy of 99.00% under the standard 80/10/10 split. Additionally, a patient-level evaluation is conducted using an external glioma dataset to provide a more realistic assessment without data leakage. The segmentation model (DeepLabV3-ResNet50) achieved 83.09% validation mIoU and 88.79% Dice score. For university KPI forecasting, we used annual IPEDS and NSF HERD data from 2010 to 2023 for three universities (BSU, EOU, and UAB). To examine the effect of preprocessing on forecasting performance, two case studies are conducted. In the first case, linear interpolation is applied to generate semester-level data. In the second case, the original annual data is used directly without interpolation. Random Forest regression and ARIMA models are evaluated using MAE, RMSE, MAPE, and R 2 . The results showed that interpolation improved apparent forecasting performance due to smoothing, while evaluation on the original annual data provided a more realistic assessment of model behavior. To further validate the framework on a larger dataset, an additional case study is conducted using a student dropout dataset. For water potability, we trained and compared multiple tabular classifiers on a large dataset (1,048,575 samples). A Random Forest model (100 trees, max depth 10) achieved 85.86% test accuracy and high recall for unsafe samples (0.8447). All modules are served via FastAPI and deployed together using Docker, with workflow automation routing requests to the correct endpoint. System-level benchmarking indicates that the backend maintains stable throughput and latency under concurrent requests.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Integrated End-to-end Performance Prediction and Diagnosis for Extreme Scientific Workflows (IPPD) (Final Report)

This report details the accomplishments from the ASCR funded project “Integrated End-to-end Performance Prediction and Diagnosis for Extreme Scientific Workflows” under the award numbers FWP-66406 and DE-SC0012630, with a focus on the UC San Diego (Award No. DE-SC0012630) part of the accomplishments. We refer to the project as IPPD. The main activities of IPPD were centered on the development and integration of provenance information to capture empirically workflow information and identify the sources of bottlenecks as well as variability, and modeling and simulation to provide insights and predictively explore multiple scenarios for development of advanced techniques for optimization of resources and workflow execution. After a Phase I of the project, a Phase II effort focused on three major aspects: a) observe how data is generated, distributed, and used; b) analyze how data is (repeatedly) consumed with a focus both on repeated patterns and anomalies; and c) explore how to optimize data motion. The project leveraged and extended our existing tools with new research and demonstrated our work on the Belle II workflow suite as well as on workflows from NSLS-II.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Application of aerosol-ice nucleating particle closure to establish the leading parameters governing ice crystal number concentration under commonly observed mixed-phase cloud conditions

This is the final technical report for DOE DE-SC0021034 award entitled “Application of aerosol-ice nucleating particle closure to establish the leading parameters governing ice crystal number concentration under commonly observed mixed-phase cloud conditions”. The overarching objective of this project was to gain a predictive understanding of the processes that lead from aerosols to ice-nucleating particles (INPs) to ice crystal number concentrations (ICNCs) in stratiform mixed-phase clouds where supercooled water droplets and ice crystals coexist, and to inform climate model parameterizations. During this four-year project we addressed the three main research goals of this objective: 1) Study the aerosol-INP link; 2) Develop an aerosol-cloud column model (AC-1D); and 3) Study the INP-ICNC link. Those activities significantly advanced our predictive understanding of how to represent INPs in could models and its implications on ice crystal number concentrations. The results have been published in five peer-reviewed publications with three more in review and preparation. It allowed for collaboration resulting in additional fourteen peer-reviewed publications that are concerned with the objective of this research project. This research has been communicated to the scientific community at national and international meetings and conferences by numerous talks, seminars, and posters including fifteen invited presentations. This project allowed training of four graduate students and one postdoctoral research associate resulting in one M.S. thesis and advancement to Ph.D. candidacy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

E3SM: Improved Climate Prediction with Exascale Capability

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) project is an ongoing, state-of-the-science earth system modeling, simulation, and prediction effort that optimizes Department of Energy (DOE) computing resources to meet the science needs of the nation and the agency’s mission objectives. Climate simulation has become a proven tool for identifying and quantifying the impacts of climate change, but even greater accuracy is required at all levels to improve forecast precision. Understanding the impact of climate change on global and regional water cycles is one of the highest priorities and most difficult challenges in climate change prediction. As part of a subproject of DOE’s Exascale Computing Project, a multidisciplinary team including geophysical and computational scientists developed a multiscale modeling framework (MMF) to refine cloud representation in E3SM climate simulation on GPU accelerated supercomputers, making higher resolution, more computationally efficient predictions possible.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Adaptation Strategies Strongly Reduce the Future Impacts of Climate Change on Simulated Crop Yields

Abstract Simulations of crop yield due to climate change vary widely between models, locations, species, management strategies, and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). To understand how climate and adaptation affects yield change, we developed a meta‐model based on 8703 site‐level process‐model simulations of yield with different future adaptation strategies and climate scenarios for maize, rice, wheat and soybean. We tested 10 statistical models, including some machine learning models, to predict the percentage change in projected future yield relative to the baseline period (2000–2010) as a function of explanatory variables related to adaptation strategy and climate change. We used the best model to produce global maps of yield change for the RCP4.5 scenario and identify the most influential variables affecting yield change using Shapley additive explanations. For most locations, adaptation was the most influential factor determining the projected yield change for maize, rice and wheat. Without adaptation under RCP4.5, all crops are expected to experience average global yield losses of 6%–21%. Adaptation alleviates this average projected loss by 1–13 percentage points. Maize was most responsive to adaptive practices with a projected mean yield loss of −21% [range across locations: −63%, +3.7%] without adaptation and −7.5% [range: −46%, +13%] with adaptation. For maize and rice, irrigation method and cultivar choice were the adaptation types predicted to most prevent large yield losses, respectively. When adaptation practices are applied, some areas are predicted to experience yield gains, especially at northern high latitudes. These results reveal the critical importance of implementing adequate adaptation strategies to mitigate the impact of climate change on crop yields.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Latest Developments in PM Systems and Methods and their Application to WM Projects - 20364

How do you improve on an industry that is well established yet often misses the mark on key metrics demonstrating effective planning and execution of project scope, schedule and budget? With the increased complexity of DOE projects relative to either poorly kept records of what wastes are stored or the lack of specific knowledge relative to the waste concentrations/quantities, this is a question continually asked and investigated by many. In fact, in 2017, the GAO's report to Congress indicated that although the DOE has made some progress on its monitoring effectiveness and demonstrating progress criteria, these goals were not met and there needs to be more improvement and monitoring. This paper will offer some insights into the latest developments in project management methodologies and the possible application of these to waste management projects. Traditional data generated via a project schedule that utilizes critical path methodology (CPM) and additional earned value management (EVM) data needs to be accurate and enable the project manager to better understand the probability of project success. Although this data has readily been available on most large-scale projects, success as measured by various stakeholder groups including the client, project team, regulators, etc. is less than optimal. Therefore, an urgent need exists to explore how traditional project data (CPM and EVM) coupled with new methodologies allows for better planning and execution by the project team. Many new approaches/methodologies can even be used to predict the success of options prior to full implementation on the actual project. Three approaches/methodologies will be discussed: - Artificial Intelligence; - Change Management; - Blend of Traditional Management (Gantt chart) and Agile Methodologies. As market forces change, so will the direction of project management. The days of 'one size fits all' are no longer valid. A combination of predictive and adaptive approaches in the management of projects is essential to enable execution of project deliverables on time, under budget, and within the contractual scope. This paper is intended to provide the reader with insight to the close relationship of project management trends and business management trends, and to provoke critical thinking about what it means to align project management strategy with an environment of non-stop innovation. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

The GREEN ‘omics of Nutrient Feedbacks to Soil Warming

The GREEN ‘omics of Nutrient Feedbacks in Soil project advanced the DOE Biological and Environmental Research (BER) mission by developing and applying isotope-enabled ’omics tools to understand how soil microbes regulate carbon and nutrient cycling. Guided by the Growth Rate, growth Efficiency, and stoichiometry of Essential Nutrients (GREEN ’omics) framework, the project aimed to build a predictive, systems-level understanding of microbial traits that control ecosystem biogeochemistry. In a collaboration among Northern Arizona University (lead), West Virginia University, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, we combined quantitative stable isotope probing (qSIP), Chip-SIP, NanoSIMS, and genome-resolved metagenomics across long-term experiments in Arctic, boreal, temperate, and tropical ecosystems. The project produced three key outcomes: 1) We showed that community-weighted temperature sensitivities of bacterial growth (Q10) can predict ecosystem-scale soil respiration responses across diverse soils. 2) We provided the first in situ evidence for density-dependent population dynamics in soil bacteria and demonstrated that nutrient additions intensify competition, concentrating carbon use into fewer taxa. 3) We improved and extended isotope-enabled ’omics methods by quantifying qSIP measurement error to guide experimental design and coupling SIP with genome-resolved metagenomics to reveal cross-kingdom interactions among bacteria, fungi, and viruses. Together, these results show that a small number of microbial traits and taxa exert disproportionate control over soil carbon and nutrient cycling, providing critical data and methods to improve representation of microbial processes in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A multi-dimensional parametric study of variability in multi-phase flow dynamics during geologic CO 2 sequestration accelerated with machine learning

Successful geologic CO 2 storage projects depend on numerical simulations to predict reservoir performance during site selection, injection verification, and post-injection monitoring phases of the project. These numerical simulations solve non-linear sets of coupled partial differential equations, while accounting for multi-phase fluid dynamics on the basis of constitutive equations that are embedded into the solution scheme. As a consequence, individual simulations often require tens to hundreds of hours to complete on high-performance computing clusters. Moreover, laboratory experiments reveal that parametric functions for capillary pressure and relative permeability exhibit substantial variability, even within the same rock type. This combination of computational expense and wide-ranging parametric variability means that there remains substantial uncertainty in the behavior of multi-phase CO 2 -water systems, particularly in the context of feedbacks between relative permeability and capillary pressure. To bridge this knowledge gap, here we develop a novel workflow that utilizes physics-based numerical simulation to train an artificial neural network (ANN) emulator for interrogating the multivariate parameter space that governs both capillary pressure and relative permeability. With this approach, the ANN is trained to emulate both fluid pressure distribution and CO 2 saturation, which are then interrogated quantitatively to generate parametric response surface mappings with high-fidelity resolution. Results from this study initially show that capillary entry pressure is the dominant control on both CO 2 plume geometry and fluid pressure propagation when considering the combined effects of capillary pressure and relative permeability, particularly when phase interference is low and residual CO 2 saturation is high. Moreover, the ANN emulator provides tremendous computational speed-up by computing 2691 individual simulations in several minutes; whereas, the same simulation ensemble would have required ~3 years of simulation time using only physics-based simulation methods (25,000 times speed up).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Non-autoregressive time-series methods for stable parametric reduced-order models

Advection-dominated dynamical systems, characterized by partial differential equations, are found in applications ranging from weather forecasting to engineering design where accuracy and robustness are crucial. There has been significant interest in the use of techniques borrowed from machine learning to reduce the computational expense and/or improve the accuracy of predictions for these systems. These rely on the identification of a basis that reduces the dimensionality of the problem and the subsequent use of time series and sequential learning methods to forecast the evolution of the reduced state. Often, however, machine-learned predictions after reduced-basis projection are plagued by issues of stability stemming from incomplete capture of multiscale processes as well as due to error growth for long forecast durations. To address these issues, we have developed a non-autoregressive time series approach for predicting linear reduced-basis time histories of forward models. In particular, we demonstrate that non-autoregressive counterparts of sequential learning methods such as long short-term memory (LSTM) considerably improve the stability of machine-learned reduced-order models. Further, we evaluate our approach on the inviscid shallow water equations and show that a non-autoregressive variant of the standard LSTM approach that is bidirectional in the principal component directions obtains the best accuracy for recreating the nonlinear dynamics of partial observations. Moreover-and critical for many applications of these surrogates-inference times are reduced by three orders of magnitude using our approach, compared with both the equation-based Galerkin projection method and the standard LSTM approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Assessing Global Ocean Circulation Sensitivity to Changes in Antarctic Ice Discharge

The principal goal of this research is to assess how projected increases in meltwater discharge and iceberg calving from the Antarctic Ice Sheet will impact climate in the next 250 years. In short, the sensitivity of the global ocean circulation and climate, and in particular the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), to large increases in iceberg calving and meltwater discharges to the Southern Ocean are poorly understood. The requirement to investigate this topic is heightened by growing evidence that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is vulnerable to rapid retreat and collapse through marine-ice-sheet-instability (MISI) on multidecadal-to-centennial timescales. Future model simulations of the AIS show the potential for rapid ice sheet retreat in the next 50 – 300 years, with such a collapse associated with the discharge of enormous volumes of ice and meltwater to the Southern Ocean. This project uses a combination of an ice sheet/shelf model and a fully coupled (ocean-atmosphere-seaice) model (CESM 1.2) to explore the sensitive of global climate to future changes in runoff from the Antarctic continent under future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios IPCC RCP4.5 and 8.5. Overall, accounting for Antarctic meltwater reduces the projected global mean anthropogenic greenhouse warming by up to 2 deg C. during peak WAIS collapse and by ~1 deg. for most of the simulation. In addition, the increased meltwater contribution raises sub-surface ocean temperatures at the Antarctic ice sheet margin by more than 1ºC, such that the ice shelf basal melt rates increase beyond those currently projected. In contrast, the model predicts a strong cooling of both the surface air and ocean temperatures over the Southern Ocean that results in a massive expansion and thickening of the perennial sea-ice. The slow-down in anthropogenic warming also results in the onset of ice-free conditions in the Arctic being delayed in the model by several decades, and the projected slowdown in the AMOC to reduce.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Improving Coal-Fired Plant Performance Through Integrated Predictive and Condition-Based Monitoring Tools

The project demonstrated the ability to improve boiler performance and reliability through the integrated use of condition-based monitoring (CBM) and predictions of the impacts of coal quality on boiler operations at a full-scale coal-fired power plant. The advanced tool developed actively monitors and manages coal quality and overall boiler conditions that maximizes availability and maintains generating capacity while reducing cost. The tool is used to forecast and alert plant operators and engineers about poor boiler conditions which may occur as a result of incoming coal and/or current power plant operating conditions. The Combustion System Performance Indices (CSPI) and CoalTracker (CT) programs predicts fireside performance of the plant including slagging, fouling, erosion, slag flow, strength development (sintering/densification), and slag layer thickness based on the composition of delivered coal. CT program is tailored for each plant and is used to track the coal from the point of delivery to the burner. The most successful application of the CSPI-CT has been at plants where the coal composition is determined through the use of a full stream elemental analyzers based on prompt gamma neutron analysis (PGNAA). The CSPI-CT program information is used by coal procurement, coal mining and plant operations personnel to select and blend coal properties for the best plant performance.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Fast Neutron Evaluations for Advanced Lead Systems [Slides]

This presentation touches on fast neutron evaluations for advanced lead systems. This lecture covers project goals to evaluate lead (Pb) isotopes with a focus on improving predictive capabilities of fast systems. Additionally, the project sets out to benchmark available critical and shielding experiments with sensitivity to Pb and utilize RPI Quasi-Differential Scattering experiment for scattering reactions. This project will perform Resolved Resonance Region (RRR) and fast region evaluations for natural Pb isotopes with differential data on EXchange FORmat for experimental numerical nuclear reaction data (EXFOR) and ultimately will submit evaluations to the ENDF/B-VIII.1 library.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗