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Physics-Informed Machine Learning Model for Ceramic Matrix Composite Creep

A physics-informed recurrent neural network (RNN) based surrogate model is developed to emulate the nonlinear, time-dependent constitutive behavior of ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) driven by matrix damage and constituent creep at the microscale. Physics-informed constraints are introduced into the surrogate model through regularization to ground the prediction in physics and improve its predictive capabilities. Training data is generated using the high-fidelity generalized method of cells (HFGMC) approach which calls appropriate creep and damage models for each of the constituents. This coupling permits simulating the nonlinear behavior of CMCs based on constituent response at the microscale along with microstructural features such as fiber and porosity volume fraction and fiber radius. The microscale repeating unit cell is loaded under creep fatigue conditions to replicate the material loading experienced in a turbine engine. Therefore, the RNN-based surrogate model is tasked with predicting, as a function of variable input stress sequence, temperature, and microstructural features, the resulting strain history response while satisfying physical constraints related to creep rate, isochoric inelastic deformation, and strain energy density. The trained surrogate model is shown to effectively match the strain history over quantified distributions of microstructural features and relevant loading regimes and temperatures. Neural network based surrogate models can offer efficient alternatives to running computationally intensive multiscale material models to simulate the nonlinear response of large structural models. Therefore, the presented work provides evidence towards the feasibility of developing, training, and running such models for CMCs with complex microstructures, nonlinear time-dependent material response, and under non-monotonic loading conditions.

ceramic matrix composites↗

The Fast Radio Burst Luminosity Function and Death Line in the Low-Twist Magnetar Model

We explore the burst energy distribution of fast radio bursts(FRBs)in the low-twist magnetar model ofWadiasingh & Timokhin(WT19). Motivated by the power-lawfluence distributions of FRB121102, we proposean elementary model for the FRB luminosity function of individual repeaters with an inversion protocol thatdirectly relates the power-law distribution index of magnetar short burstfluences to that for FRBs. The protocolindicates that the FRB energy scales virtually linearly with crust/field dislocation amplitude, if magnetar shortbursts prevail in the magnetoelastic regime. Charge starvation in the magnetosphere during bursts(required inWT19)for individual repeaters implies the predicted burstfluence distribution is narrow,3 decades for yieldingstrains and oscillation frequencies feasible in magnetar crusts. Requiring magnetic confinement and chargestarvation, we obtain a death line for FRBs, which segregates magnetars from the normal pulsar population,suggesting only the former will host recurrent FRBs. We convolve the burst energy distribution for individualmagnetars to define the distribution of luminosities in evolved magnetar populations. The broken power-lawluminosity function’s low-energy character depends on the population model, while the high-energy index tracesthat of individual repeaters. Independent of the evolved population, the broken power-law isotropic-equivalentenergy/luminosity function peaks at∼1037–1040erg with a low-energy cutoff at∼1037erg. Lastly, we considerthe localfluence distribution of FRBs andfind that it can constrain the subset of FRB-producing magnetarprogenitors. Our model suggests that improvements in sensitivity may reveal aflattening of the global FRBfluencedistribution and saturation in FRB rates.

Cosmology↗

Geomagnetic responses to the solar wind and to solar activity

A unified overview of present knowledge of the geomagnetic response to the dynamic solar wind is reported. The formation of the magnetosphere and the magnetospheric tail is discussed the importance of electric fields is stressed, and the magnetospheric convection of plasma and frozen-in magnetic field lines under the influence of large scale magnetospheric electric fields is outlined. Ionospheric electric fields and currents are intimately related to electric fields and currents in the magnetosphere and the strong coupling between the two regions is discussed. The energy input of the solar wind to the magnetosphere and upper atmosphere is discussed in terms of the reconnection model where interplanetary magnetic field lines merge or connect with the terrestrial field on the sunward side of the magnetosphere. The merging model emphasizes the importance of the interplanetary magnetic field and especially the north-south component. The solar sector structure with its organized magnetic field and embeeded high speed plasma streams is identified as the source of recurrent geomagnetic disturbances while flare associated interplanetary shock waves are the source of most violet and sporadic geomagnetic storms.

Svalgaard, L.↗

The Spectroscopic Evolution of the Symbiotic-like Recurrent Nova V407 Cygni During Its 2010 Outburst. 2. The Circumstellar Environment and the Aftermath

The nova outburst of V407 Cyg in 2010 Mar. 10 was the first observed for this star but its close resemblance to the well known symbiotic-like recurrent nova RS Oph suggests that it is also a member of this rare type of Galactic novae. The nova was the first detected at gamma-ray energies and is the first known nova explosion for this system. The extensive multiwavelength coverage of this outburst makes it an ideal comparison with the few other outbursts known for similar systems. We extend our previous analysis of the Mira and the expanding shock from the explosion to detail the time development of the photoionized Mira wind, circumstellar medium, and shocked circumstellar environment to derive their physical parameters and how they relate to large scale structure of the environment, extending the previous coverage to more than 500 days after outburst. We use optical spectra obtained at high resolution with the Nordic Optical Telescope (NOT) (R approx. =.45000 to 65000) and medium resolution Ondrejov Observatory (R approx. = 12000) data and compare the line variations with publicly available archival measurements at 30 GHz OVNR and at X-rays with Swift during the first four months of the outburst, through the end of the epoch of strong XR emission. We use nebular diagnostics and high resolution profile variations to derive the densities and locations of the extended emission. We find that the higher the ionization and/or the higher the excitation energy, the more closely the profiles resemble the He II/Ca V-type high velocity shock profile discussed in Paper I. This also accounts for the comparative development of the [N II] and [O III] isoelectronic transitions: the [O III] 4363A profile does not show the low velocity peaks while the excited [N II] 5754A does. If nitrogen is mainly N(+3) or higher in the shock, the upper state of the [N II] nebular lines will contribute but if the oxygen is O(+2) then this line is formed by recombination, masking the nebular contributor, and the lower states are collisionally quenched but emit from the low density surroundings. Absorption lines of Fe-peak ions formed in the Mira wind were visible as P Cyg profiles at low velocity before Day 69, around the time of the X-ray peak and we identified many absorption transitions without accompanying emission for metal lines. The H Balmer lines showed strong P Cyg absorption troughs that weakened during the 2010 observing period, through Day 128. The Fe-peak line profiles and flux variations were different for permitted and forbidden transitions: the E1 transitions were not visible after Day 128 but had shown a narrow peak superimposed on an extended (200 km/s) blue wing, while the M1 and E2 transitions persisted to Day 529, the last observation, and showed extended redshifted wings up of the same velocity. We distinguish the components from the shock, the photoionized environment, and the chromosphere and inner Mira wind using spectra taken more than one year after outburst. The multiple shells and radiative excitation phenomenology are similar to those recently cited for GRBs and SNIa .

Shore, S. N.↗

The 2011 Outburst of Recurrent Nova T Pyx: X-Ray Observations Expose the White Dwarf Mass and Ejection Dynamics

The recurrent nova T Pyx underwent its sixth historical outburst in 2011, and became the subject of an intensive multi-wavelength observational campaign.We analyze data from the Swift and Suzaku satellites to produce a detailed X-ray light curve augmented by epochs of spectral information. X-ray observations yield mostly non-detections in the first four months of outburst, but both a super-soft and hard X-ray component rise rapidly after Day 115. The super-soft X-ray component, attributable to the photosphere of the nuclear-burning white dwarf, is relatively cool (approximately 45 electron volts) and implies that the white dwarf in T Pyx is significantly below the Chandrasekhar mass (approximately 1 M). The late turn-on time of the super-soft component yields a large nova ejecta mass (approximately greater than 10(exp −5) solar mass), consistent with estimates at other wavelengths. The hard X-ray component is well fit by a approximately 1 kiloelectron volt thermal plasma, and is attributed to shocks internal to the 2011 nova ejecta. The presence of a strong oxygen line in this thermal plasma on Day 194 requires a significantly super-solar abundance of oxygen and implies that the ejecta are polluted by white dwarf material. The X-ray light curve can be explained by a dual-phase ejection, with a significant delay between the first and second ejection phases, and the second ejection finally released two months after outburst. A delayed ejection is consistent with optical and radio observations of T Pyx, but the physical mechanism producing such a delay remains a mystery.

nova T Pyx↗

Inter-well connectivity detection in CO 2 WAG projects using statistical recurrent unit models

Routine well-wise injection and production measurements contain significant information on subsurface structure and properties. Data-driven technology that interprets surface data into subsurface structure or properties can assist operators in making informed decisions by providing a better understanding of field assets. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO 2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. SRU is a special type of recurrent neural network (RNN) that allows for better characterization of temporal trends, by learning various statistics of the input at different time scales. In our application, the complete states (injection rate, pressure and cumulative injection) at injectors and pressure states at producers are fed to SRU as the input and the phase rates at producers are treated as the output. Once the SRU is trained and validated, it is then used to assess the connectivity of each injector to any producer using permutation variable importance method, wherein inputs corresponding to an injector are shuffled and the increase in prediction error at a given producer is recorded as the importance (connectivity metric) of the injector to the producer. This method is tested in both synthetic and field-scale cases. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. This significantly improves confidence in our data-driven procedure. The novelty of this work is that it is purely data-driven method and can directly interpret routine surface measurements to intuitive subsurface knowledge. Furthermore, the streamline-based validation procedure provides physics-based backing to the results obtained from data analytics. This study results in a reliable and efficient data analytics framework that is well-suited for large field applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Development of a prediction model for radiotherapy response among patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma based on the tumor immune microenvironment and hypoxia signature

Abstract Introduction The immune system and hypoxia are major factors influencing radiosensitivity in patients with different cancer types. This study aimed at developing a model to predict radiotherapy response in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) based on the tumor immune microenvironment and hypoxia signature. Materials and Methods We first evaluated the hypoxia status and tumor immune microenvironment in the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) cohort by using transcriptomic data. Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were identified between the “high immunity and low hypoxia” and “low immunity and high hypoxia” groups and those DEGs significantly associated with disease‐specific survival in the univariate Cox regression analysis were selected as the prognostic DEGs. We selected the immune hypoxia–related genes (IHRGs) by intersecting prognostic DEGs with immune and hypoxia gene sets. We used the IHRGs to train a multivariate Cox regression model in the TCGA cohort, based on which we calculated the IHRG prognostic index (IHRGPI) for each patient and validated its efficacy in predicting radiotherapy response in the Gene Expression Omnibus cohorts. Furthermore, we explored potential mechanisms and effective combinational treatment strategies for different IHRGPI groups. Results Five IHRGs were used to construct the IHRGPI, which was used to dichotomize the cohorts. The patients with lower IHRGPI showed a better radiotherapy response across different cohorts and endpoints, including overall survival, progression‐free survival, and recurrence‐free survival ( p < 0.05). Patients with higher IHRGPI showed greater hypoxia and lesser immune cell infiltration. A lower IHRGPI indicated a better immunotherapy response, while a higher IHRGPI indicated a better chemotherapy response. Conclusions IHRGPI is promising for predicting radiotherapy response and guiding combinational treatment strategies in patients with HNSCC.

Zhu, Guang‐Li↗

The radioactive nuclei 26 Al and 60 Fe in the Cosmos and in the solar system

The cosmic evolution of the chemical elements from the Big Bang to the present time is driven by nuclear fusion reactions inside stars and stellar explosions. A cycle of matter recurrently re-processes metal-enriched stellar ejecta into the next generation of stars. The study of cosmic nucleosynthesis and this matter cycle requires the understanding of the physics of nuclear reactions, of the conditions at which the nuclear reactions are activated inside the stars and stellar explosions, of the stellar ejection mechanisms through winds and explosions, and of the transport of the ejecta towards the next cycle, from hot plasma to cold, star-forming gas. Due to the long timescales of stellar evolution, and because of the infrequent occurrence of stellar explosions, observational studies are challenging, as they have biases in time and space as well as different sensitivities related to the various astronomical methods. Here, we describe in detail the astrophysical and nuclear-physical processes involved in creating two radioactive isotopes useful in such studies, 26 Al and 60 Fe. Due to their radioactive lifetime of the order of a million years, these isotopes are suitable to characterise simultaneously the processes of nuclear fusion reactions and of interstellar transport. We describe and discuss the nuclear reactions involved in the production and destruction of 26 Al and 60 Fe, the key characteristics of the stellar sites of their nucleosynthesis and their interstellar journey after ejection from the nucleosynthesis sites. This allows us to connect the theoretical astrophysical aspects to the variety of astronomical messengers presented here, from stardust and cosmic-ray composition measurements, through observation of γ rays produced by radioactivity, to material deposited in deep-sea ocean crusts and to the inferred composition of the first solids that have formed in the Solar System. We show that considering measurements of the isotopic ratio of 26 Al to 60 Fe eliminate some of the unknowns when interpreting astronomical results, and discuss the lessons learned from these two isotopes on cosmic chemical evolution. This review paper has emerged from an ISSI-BJ Team project in 2017–2019, bringing together nuclear physicists, astronomers, and astrophysicists in this inter-disciplinary discussion.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Flexible materials technology

A survey of all presently defined or proposed large space systems indicated an ever increasing demand for flexible components and materials, primarily as a result of the widening disparity between the stowage space of launch vehicles and the size of advanced systems. Typical flexible components and material requirements were identified on the basis of recurrence and/or functional commonality. This was followed by the evaluation of candidate materials and the search for material capabilities which promise to satisfy the postulated requirements. Particular attention was placed on thin films, and on the requirements of deployable antennas. The assessment of the performance of specific materials was based primarily on the failure mode, derived from a detailed failure analysis. In view of extensive on going work on thermal and environmental degradation effects, prime emphasis was placed on the assessment of the performance loss by meteoroid damage. Quantitative data were generated for tension members and antenna reflector materials. A methodology was developed for the representation of the overall materials performance as related to systems service life. A number of promising new concepts for flexible materials were identified.

Steurer, W. H.↗

Developing an Evolutionary Baseline Model for Humans: Jointly Inferring Purifying Selection with Population History

Building evolutionarily appropriate baseline models for natural populations is not only important for answering fundamental questions in population genetics—including quantifying the relative contributions of adaptive versus nonadaptive processes—but also essential for identifying candidate loci experiencing relatively rare and episodic forms of selection (e.g., positive or balancing selection). Here, a baseline model was developed for a human population of West African ancestry, the Yoruba, comprising processes constantly operating on the genome (i.e., purifying and background selection, population size changes, recombination rate heterogeneity, and gene conversion). Specifically, to perform joint inference of selective effects with demography, an approximate Bayesian approach was employed that utilizes the decay of background selection effects around functional elements, taking into account genomic architecture. This approach inferred a recent 6-fold population growth together with a distribution of fitness effects that is skewed towards effectively neutral mutations. Importantly, these results further suggest that, although strong and/or frequent recurrent positive selection is inconsistent with observed data, weak to moderate positive selection is consistent but unidentifiable if rare.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Variability and Distribution of Nighttime Equatorial to Mid Latitude Ionospheric Irregularities and Vertical Plasma Drift Observed by FORMOSAT-5 Advanced Ionospheric Probe In-Situ Measurements from 2017 – 2020

Irregularities in ionospheric plasma distribution can result in severe scintillation and disruption to the radio frequencies utilized for satellite communications and navigation. In the low and mid latitudes, these irregularities can include Equatorial Plasma Bubbles (EPBs) and Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances (TIDs). EPBs are irregularities manifesting in low latitude nighttime ionosphere plasma density that can extend along magnetic field lines with zonal scales on the order of 100 km or less, while TIDs are propagating wave disturbances. High frequency in-situ measurements of ionospheric plasma aboard spacecraft in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) are a direct measurement of irregularities in plasma density and are therefore valuable for resolving EPB and TID occurrences, variability, and relation to other ionospheric parameters that are believed to play a driving role in the formation of such irregularities. In this study, we utilize observations taken over a three-year period between 2017 and 2020 by the Advanced Ionospheric Probe (AIP) carried aboard the FORMOSAT-5 satellite to examine the spatial, seasonal, and interannual variability of equatorial to mid latitude ionospheric irregularities and vertical ion drift during this time. AIP provides in-situ measurements of ion density and vertical ion drift in the equatorial to mid latitude ionosphere at approximately 720 km altitude with local times between 22:00 – 23:00 local time. Our global scale results resolve distinct and inter-annually recurrent seasonal patterns in the distribution of nighttime ionospheric irregularities and vertical plasma drift during this time. Elevated occurrences of ion density irregularities are resolved along the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) latitudes, while notable occurrences with variability consistent with EPBs also observed along the low and equatorial magnetic latitudes. Zonal variability of equatorial irregularities consistent with the signatures of nonmigrating atmospheric tides are observed. It is also notable that the occurrences and geographic distribution of ion density irregularities showed a considerable level of interannual variability, especially at mid latitudes over the South Atlantic and Southern African sectors, which showed much higher levels of irregularities in 2017–––2018, compared to 2019 and 2020. In comparison, the spatial and interannual variation of the co-located vertical ion drifts were much more consistent during the years examined, indicating that the driver for the observed interannual variability in ion density irregularities cannot be attributed to the vertical ion drift at the same time and location of the observations. This highlights the need for in-situ instruments distributed across multiple satellites in different local time zones.

ionosphere↗

STFM: Accurate Spatio-Temporal Fusion Model for Weather Forecasting

Meteorological prediction is crucial for various sectors, including agriculture, navigation, daily life, disaster prevention, and scientific research. However, traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are constrained by their high computational resource requirements, while the accuracy of deep learning models remains suboptimal. In response to these challenges, we propose a novel deep learning-based model, the Spatiotemporal Fusion Model (STFM), designed to enhance the accuracy of meteorological predictions. Our model leverages Fifth-Generation ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA5) data and introduces two key components: a spatiotemporal encoder module and a spatiotemporal fusion module. The spatiotemporal encoder integrates the strengths of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and recurrent neural networks (RNNs), effectively capturing both spatial and temporal dependencies. Meanwhile, the spatiotemporal fusion module employs a dual attention mechanism, decomposing spatial attention into global static attention and channel dynamic attention. This approach ensures comprehensive extraction of spatial features from meteorological data. The combination of these modules significantly improves prediction performance. Experimental results demonstrate that STFM excels in extracting spatiotemporal features from reanalysis data, yielding predictions that closely align with observed values. In comparative studies, STFM outperformed other models, achieving a 7% improvement in ground and high-altitude temperature predictions, a 5% enhancement in the prediction of the u/v components of 10 m wind speed, and an increase in the accuracy of potential height and relative humidity predictions by 3% and 1%, respectively. This enhanced performance highlights STFM’s potential to advance the accuracy and reliability of meteorological forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Comparative Study of Physics‐Informed and Data‐Driven Neural Networks for Compound Flood Simulation at River‐Ocean Interfaces: A Case Study of Hurricane Irene

Simulating compound flooding (CF) at the river-ocean interface within large-scale Earth System Models (ESMs) presents significant challenges due to complex interactions between river discharge, storm surge, and tides. This study assesses the comparative advantages of physics-informed and data-driven machine learning (ML) approaches for enhancing local ESM performance. We systematically compare data-driven neural network models (i.e., CNNs, U-Net, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit), and physics-informed neural network (PINN) models, including vanilla PINN and a finite-difference-based PINN (FD-PINN). Specifically, FD-PINN is introduced to enhance computational efficiency, accelerating vanilla PINNs by ∼6.5 times while improving accuracy. To enhance data-driven model training, a new data-generation approach is developed to sample historical fluvial and coastal flood events, which ensures a robust data set for extreme event prediction. The models are evaluated using a realistic one-dimensional river domain extracted from an ESM's river mesh and the Hurricane Irene event as an independent test case. Results show that FD-PINN achieves accurate predictions with significantly reduced computational costs relative to vanilla PINNs. Among data-driven models, the best overall performance is achieved by a CNN-LSTM hybrid, which balances accuracy and efficiency. While a fully connected CNN (CNN-FC) provides the best accuracy, it incurs high computational cost. Architectures lacking strong temporal modeling tend to underperform on unseen events. These findings highlight the importance of sequence-aware designs for robust generalization. This study reveals the trade-offs between physics-informed and data-driven models and proposes an adaptive hybrid framework for integrating ML into ESMs to enhance local flood simulations.

Earth Systems Modeling↗

Robust Carbon Dioxide Plume Imaging Using Joint Tomographic Inversion of Seismic Onset Time and Distributed Pressure and Temperature Measurements (Final Report)

We develop and demonstrate rapid and cost-effective methodologies for spatiotemporal tracking of CO2 plumes during geologic sequestration using joint inversion of seismic data and distributed pressure and temperature measurements. Key elements of our methodology are: (a) a computationally efficient approach to pressure and temperature propagation, (b) analysis of time lapse seismic data using a novel ‘seismic onset time’ approach to detect fluid front propagation, and (c) data assimilation and uncertainty assessment via joint inversion of pressure, temperature and time lapse seismic data, and (d) validating the numerical tomographic inversion using a CO2 injection demonstration projects, specifically data collected from the from the Petra Nova Parish Holdings CCUS project in the West Ranch Field, Texas and the Chester-16 reef CO2 injection site in Northern Michigan which is part of the DOE Midwestern Carbon Sequestration Project. The research team is led by Texas A&M University and includes Battelle as a subcontractor with support from Shell, Anadarko, Chevron and JX Nippon. A carbon dioxide (CO2) water-alternating-gas (WAG) pilot was conducted to gain insights into tertiary oil recovery potential via CO2 flood in the West Ranch Field as part of the Petra Nova project, the world’s largest post-combustion CO2 capture and utilization initiative. With a fluvial formation geology and large contrasts in permeability, this is a challenging and novel application of CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR). We build a predictive dynamic model of the subsurface that incorporates the multiphase and compositional data acquired during the pilot operation. The calibrated model is used for the carbon dioxide plume imaging. The study began with an initialization of the pilot sector model extracted from a calibrated full-field model. The pilot model calibration follows a two-step hierarchical workflow. First, we performed a large-scale update of the permeability distribution by integrating available bottomhole pressure and multiphase production data. In the second step, local permeability field is fine-tuned using a streamline-based method to match CO2 breakthrough times at the producers. The predictive capability of the calibrated model was verified through two blind validation tests: (1) the model showed good agreement with saturation logs acquired at two observation wells; and (2) the model reproduced the CO2 recovery as a fraction of the injected CO2. The use of seismic onset times has shown great promise for integrating near-continuous seismic surveys for updating geologic models. In this study, we analyze the impact of seismic survey frequency on the onset time approach aiming to extend the application of onset time to infrequent seismic surveys. In addition, we quantitatively examine the nonlinearity of the onset time method and compare it to the commonly used amplitude inversion method. We carry out a sensitivity analysis of seismic survey frequency based on the complete seismic survey data (over 175 surveys) of steam injection in a heavy oil reservoir (Peace River Unit) in Canada. Our results show that an adequate onset time map can be obtained from the infrequent seismic surveys by interpolation between seismic surveys as long as there is no change in the dominant underlying physics between the successive surveys. The study also shows that nonlinearity of the onset time method can be -smaller than that of the amplitude inversion method by several orders of magnitude. Application to the Brugge benchmark case shows that the onset time method obtains comparable permeability update as the traditional seismic amplitude inversion method with faster computation and improved convergence characteristics. We extend the streamline-based data integration approach to incorporate distributed temperature sensor (DTS) data using the concept of thermal tracer travel time. Then, a hierarchical workflow composed of evolutionary and streamline methods is employed to jointly history match the DTS and pressure data. Finally, CO2 saturation and streamline maps are used to visualize the CO2 plume movement during the sequestration process. The hierarchical workflow is applied to a carbon sequestration project in a carbonate reef reservoir within the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend in Michigan, USA. The monitoring data set consists of distributed temperature sensing (DTS) data acquired at the injection well and a monitoring well, flowing bottom-hole pressure data at the injection well, and time-lapse pressure measurements at several locations along the monitoring well. The history matching results indicate that the CO2 movement is mostly restricted to the intended zones of injection which is consistent with an independent warm-back analysis of the temperature data. In addition to employing simulation models and inverse methods for CO2 plume imaging, we also initialized a data-driven technology for detecting inter-well connectivity based on production and pressure data. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. Texas A&M University, the lead organization in the project, was primarily responsible for the development of tomographic approaches for CO2 plume mapping in conjunction with distributed pressure, temperature and seismic onset time data. Battelle, as a subcontractor, was primarily responsible for the development of analytical and empirical methods for analyzing transient injection rate and pressure data from point/line sources such as injection and monitoring wells. An additional area of emphasis for Battelle was the use of machine learning for such tasks as inferring reservoir connectivity information from injection-production data, and identifying variable importance for machine learning-based proxy models developed from full-physics simulations. The two organizations also collaborated on the application of the tomographic inversion methodology for a field data set.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Machine learning models of intermittent operation of RO wellhead water treatment for salinity reduction and nitrate removal

Machine learning models were developed for intermittent multi-mode operation of a wellhead reverse osmosis water purification and desalination system to predict salt passage, nitrate passage, and permeate flux. The models, based on long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture, included an attention mechanism to increase model performance in proximity of the regulatory limit for nitrate. Training and testing of the models for the Startup, Production, Shutdown and Flushing operational modes were based on operational data (consisting of 22 process variables per data sample) acquired every 2–5 s over a six-month period. The significant sets of model input attributes for the different operational modes were assessed via Spearman ranking correlation, Self-Organizing Map (SOM) analysis and feed forward feature selection (FFFS). Although the variability of nitrate passage, salt passage and permeate flux was significant over the four operational modes, prediction performance for the three outcomes were with R2 and Average Absolute Relative Error (AARE) of 0.78–0.95 and 2.96–6.16 %, respectively. Model updates post membrane elements replacement demonstrated similar levels of prediction accuracy. The study results suggest that there is merit in exploring the utility of multi-mode models for sensor fault detection, data imputation, and for potential use in model-predictive control.

Intermittent RO operation↗

NASA aviation safety reporting system

An analytical study of reports relating to cockpit altitude alert systems was performed. A recent change in the Federal Air Regulation permits the system to be modified so that the alerting signal approaching altitude has only a visual component; the auditory signal would continue to be heard if a deviation from an assigned altitude occurred. Failure to observe altitude alert signals and failure to reset the system were the commonest cause of altitude deviations related to this system. Cockpit crew distraction was the most frequent reason for these failures. It was noted by numerous reporters that the presence of altitude alert system made them less aware of altitude; this lack of altitude awareness is discussed. Failures of crew coordination were also noted. It is suggested that although modification of the altitude alert system may be highly desirable in short-haul aircraft, it may not be desirable for long-haul aircraft in which cockpit workloads are much lower for long periods of time. In these cockpits, the aural alert approaching altitudes is perceived as useful and helpful. If the systems are to be modified, it appears that additional emphasis on altitude awareness during recurrent training will be necessary; it is also possible that flight crew operating procedures during climb and descent may need examination with respect to monitoring responsibilities. A selection of alert bulletins and responses to them is presented.

Source record↗

Present-day kinematics of the Rivera plate and implications for tectonics in southwestern Mexico

A model for the present-day motion of the Rivera plate relative to the North America, Cocos, and Pacific plates is derived using new data from the Pacific-Rivera rise and Rivera transform fault, together with new estimates of Pacific-Rivera motions. The results are combined with the closure-consistent NUVEL-1 global plate motion model of DeMets et al. (1990) to examine present-day deformation in southwestern Mexico. The analysis addresses several questions raised in previous studies of the Rivera plate. Namely, do plate motion data from the northern East Pacific rise require a distinct Rivera plate? Do plate kinematic data require the subduction of the Rivera plate along the seismically quiescent Acapulco trench? If so, what does the predicted subduction rate imply about the earthquake recurrence interval in the Jalisco region of southwestern Mexico?

Demets, Charles↗

Nested Krylov methods and preserving the orthogonality

Recently the GMRESR inner-outer iteraction scheme for the solution of linear systems of equations was proposed by Van der Vorst and Vuik. Similar methods have been proposed by Axelsson and Vassilevski and Saad (FGMRES). The outer iteration is GCR, which minimizes the residual over a given set of direction vectors. The inner iteration is GMRES, which at each step computes a new direction vector by approximately solving the residual equation. However, the optimality of the approximation over the space of outer search directions is ignored in the inner GMRES iteration. This leads to suboptimal corrections to the solution in the outer iteration, as components of the outer iteration directions may reenter in the inner iteration process. Therefore we propose to preserve the orthogonality relations of GCR in the inner GMRES iteration. This gives optimal corrections; however, it involves working with a singular, non-symmetric operator. We will discuss some important properties, and we will show by experiments that, in terms of matrix vector products, this modification (almost) always leads to better convergence. However, because we do more orthogonalizations, it does not always give an improved performance in CPU-time. Furthermore, we will discuss efficient implementations as well as the truncation possibilities of the outer GCR process. The experimental results indicate that for such methods it is advantageous to preserve the orthogonality in the inner iteration. Of course we can also use iteration schemes other than GMRES as the inner method; methods with short recurrences like GICGSTAB are of interest.

Desturler, Eric↗