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At least 217 records · Page 12

Integrated risk management

The purpose of this report is to first present a basis or foundation for the building of an integrated risk management plan and them to present the plan. The integration referred to is across both the temporal and the hierarchical dimensions. Complexity, consequence, and credibility seem to be driving the need for the consideration of risk. Reduction of personal bias and reproducibility of the decision making process seem to be driving the consideration of a formal risk plan. While risk can be used as either a selection tool or a control tool, this paper concentrates on the selection usage. Risk relies on stated purpose. The tightness of the definition of purpose and success is directly reflected in the definition and control of risk. Much of a risk management plan could be designed by the answers to the questions of why, what, who, when, and where. However, any plan must provide the following information about a threat or risk: likelihood, consequence, predictability, reliability, and reproducibility. While the environment at NASA is seen as warm, but not hot, for the introduction of a risk program, some encouragement is seen if the following problems are addressed: no champion, no commitment of resource, confused definitions, lack of direction and focus, a hard sell, NASA culture, many choices of assessment methods, and cost. The plan is designed to follow the normal method of doing work and is structured to follow either the work break down structure or a functional structure very well. The parts of the plan include: defining purpose and success, initial threat assessment, initial risk assessment, reconciling threats and parameters, putting part of the information down and factoring the information back into the decision process as it comes back up, and developing inferences. Two major suggestions are presented. One is to build an office of risk management to be used as a resource by managers in doing the risk process. Another is to form a pilot program to try out the details in the plan and modify the method where needed.

Hunsucker, J. L.↗

Agile manufacturing: The factory of the future

The factory of the future will require an operating methodology which effectively utilizes all of the elements of product design, manufacturing and delivery. The process must respond rapidly to changes in product demand, product mix, design changes or changes in the raw materials. To achieve agility in a manufacturing operation, the design and development of the manufacturing processes must focus on customer satisfaction. Achieving greatest results requires that the manufacturing process be considered from product concept through sales. This provides the best opportunity to build a quality product for the customer at a reasonable rate. The primary elements of a manufacturing system include people, equipment, materials, methods and the environment. The most significant and most agile element in any process is the human resource. Only with a highly trained, knowledgeable work force can the proper methods be applied to efficiently process materials with machinery which is predictable, reliable and flexible. This paper discusses the affect of each element on the development of agile manufacturing systems.

Loibl, Joseph M.↗

Field verification of the wind tunnel coefficients

Accurate information about wind action on antennas is required for reliable prediction of antenna pointing errors in windy weather and for the design of an antenna controller with wind disturbance rejection properties. The wind tunnel data obtained 3 years ago using a scaled antenna model serves as an antenna industry standard, frequently used for the first purpose. The accuracy of the wind tunnel data has often been challenged, since they have not yet been tested in a field environment (full-aized antenna, real wind, actual terrain, etc.). The purpose of this investigation was to obtain selected field measurements and compare them with the available wind tunnel data. For this purpose, wind steady-state torques of the DSS-13 antenna were measured, and dimensionless wind torque coefficients were obtained for a variety of yaw and elevation angles. The results showed that the differences between the wind tunnel torque coefficients and the field torque coefficients were less than 10 percent of their values. The wind-gusting action on the antenna was characterized by the power spectra of the antenna encoder and the antenna torques. The spectra showed that wind gusting primarily affects the antenna principal modes.

Gawronski, W. K.↗

Mechanical behavior of precipitation hardenable steels exposed to highly corrosive environment

Unexpected occurrences of failures, due to stress corrosion cracking (SCC) of structural components, indicate a need for improved characterization of materials and more advanced analytical procedures for reliably predicting structures performance. Accordingly, the purpose of this study was to determine the stress corrosion susceptibility of 15 - 5 PH steel over a wide range of applied strain rates in a highly corrosive environment. The selected environment for this investigation was a 3.5 percent NaCl aqueous solution. The material selected for the study was 15 - 5 PH steel in the H 900 condition. The Slow Strain Rate technique was used to test the metallic specimens.

Rosa, Ferdinand↗

LDEF polymeric materials: A summary of Langley characterization

The NASA Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) enabled the exposure of a wide variety of materials to the low earth orbit (LEO) environment. This paper provides a summary of research conducted at the Langley Research Center into the response of selected LDEF polymers to this environment. Materials examined include graphite fiber reinforced epoxy, polysulfone, and additional polyimide matrix composites, films of FEP Teflon, Kapton, several experimental high performance polyimides, and films of more traditional polymers such as poly(vinyl toluene) and polystyrene. Exposure duration was either 10 months or 5.8 years. Flight and control specimens were characterized by a number of analytical techniques including ultraviolet-visible and infrared spectroscopy, thermal analysis, scanning electron and scanning tunneling microscopy, x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, and, in some instances, selected solution property measurements. Characterized effects were found to be primarily surface phenomena. These effects included atomic oxygen-induced erosion of unprotected surfaces and ultraviolet-induced discoloration and changes in selected molecular level parameters. No gross changes in molecular structure or glass transition temperature were noted. The intent of this characterization is to increase our fundamental knowledge of space environmental effects as an aid in developing new and improved polymers for space application. A secondary objective is to develop benchmarks to enhance our methodology for the ground-based simulation of environmental effects so that polymer performance in space can be more reliably predicted.

Young, Philip R.↗

Neural network applications in telecommunications

Neural network capabilities include automatic and organized handling of complex information, quick adaptation to continuously changing environments, nonlinear modeling, and parallel implementation. This viewgraph presentation presents Bellcore work on applications, learning chip computational function, learning system block diagram, neural network equalization, broadband access control, calling-card fraud detection, software reliability prediction, and conclusions.

Alspector, Joshua↗

Regional climates in the GISS general circulation model: Surface air temperature

One of the more viable research techniques into global climate change for the purpose of understanding the consequent environmental impacts is based on the use of general circulation models (GCMs). However, GCMs are currently unable to reliably predict the regional climate change resulting from global warming, and it is at the regional scale that predictions are required for understanding human and environmental responses. Regional climates in the extratropics are in large part governed by the synoptic-scale circulation and the feasibility of using this interscale relationship is explored to provide a way of moving to grid cell and sub-grid cell scales in the model. The relationships between the daily circulation systems and surface air temperature for points across the continental United States are first developed in a quantitative form using a multivariate index based on principal components analysis (PCA) of the surface circulation. These relationships are then validated by predicting daily temperature using observed circulation and comparing the predicted values with the observed temperatures. The relationships predict surface temperature accurately over the major portion of the country in winter, and for half the country in summer. These relationships are then applied to the surface synoptic circulation of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM control run, and a set of surface grid cell temperatures are generated. These temperatures, based on the larger-scale validated circulation, may now be used with greater confidence at the regional scale. The generated temperatures are compared to those of the model and show that the model has regional errors of up to 10 C in individual grid cells.

Hewitson, Bruce↗

Jet Noise Using Large Eddy Simulation

With the advent of high-supersonic transport aircraft, supersonic jet noise becomes a major technological problem and there is a strong need for a reliable prediction approach. Our present interest is the mixing noise component induced by the turbulent flow itself. The physics of shock-associated noise is very different and must be treated in another context.

Bastin, F.↗

Theoretical Study of the Electronic Spectra of a Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon, Naphthalene, and its Derivatives

In order to preselect possible candidates for the origin of diffuse interstellar bands observed, semiempirical quantum mechanical method INDO/S was applied to the optical spectra of neutral, cationic, and anionic states of naphthalene and its hydrogen abstraction and addition derivatives. Comparison with experiment shows that the spectra of naphthalene and its ions were reliably predicted. The configuration interaction calculations with single-electron excitations provided reasonable excited state wavefunctions compared to ab initio calculations that included higher excitations. The degree of similarity of the predicted spectra of the hydrogen abstraction and derivatives to those of naphthalene and ions depends largely on the similarity of the it electron configurations. For the hydrogen addition derivatives, very little resemblance of the predicted spectra to naphthalene was found because of the disruption of the aromatic conjugation system. The relevance of these calculations to astrophysical issues is discussed within the context of these polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon models. Comparing the calculated electronic energies to the Diffuse Interstellar Bands (DIBs), a list of possible candidates of naphthalene derivatives is established which provides selected candidates for a definitive test through laboratory studies.

Du, Ping↗

Toward Agent Programs with Circuit Semantics

New ideas are presented for computing and organizing actions for autonomous agents in dynamic environments-environments in which the agent's current situation cannot always be accurately discerned and in which the effects of actions cannot always be reliably predicted. The notion of 'circuit semantics' for programs based on 'teleo-reactive trees' is introduced. Program execution builds a combinational circuit which receives sensory inputs and controls actions. These formalisms embody a high degree of inherent conditionality and thus yield programs that are suitably reactive to their environments. At the same time, the actions computed by the programs are guided by the overall goals of the agent. The paper also speculates about how programs using these ideas could be automatically generated by artificial intelligence planning systems and adapted by learning methods.

ELECTRICAL CIRCUITS↗

Future Aerospace Technology in the Service of the Alliance: Sustained Hypersonic Flight - Volume 3

Sustained Hypersonic Flight capability is envisioned for several future military and civilian applications, such as long range immediate reaction reconnaissance, high speed interception of air targets, long range precision strike against hardened or time critical targets, and access to space. The inherent reduction in time-to-target and low vulnerability will permit new operational tactics. The symposium outlined mission needs and operational scenarios for hypersonic vehicles. Addressed were: Technological issues and challenges in external hypersonic aerodynamics and design, propulsion and engine/airframe integration, military ramjet applications, overall system design including structures and materials development needs, and test facilities. Ground based test facilities cannot provide full simulation at Mach numbers above 5. Therefore, the use of Computational Fluid Dynamics design tools is essential. For routine use of the computational tools in analysis, design and optimization, it is necessary to reduce the time for the entire computational process by two orders of magnitude. Hypersonic boundary layer transition remains a critical design issue because of the important impact on engine drag and on heating, which can affect the choice of materials and thermal protection systems. In addition, reliable prediction of scramjet net thrust is an absolute must in resolving hypersonic air breathing vehicle design issues. Due to current facility and computational shortfalls, the development of future hypersonic flight systems requires research flight tests in the technology areas of boundary layer transition and air-breathing propulsion engine performance. For sustained hypersonic flight beyond Mach 6, the supersonic combustion ramjet (scramjet) engine is the only choice for the near future. Only this air-breathing concept offers a significant promise of large reductions in required propellant fractions, increased payload fractions, and reduced size vehicles, together with a foreseeable technological feasibility. Airframe/engine integration, combustor design and thermal management are the predominant engineering tasks. Fuels, hydrogen or hydrocarbon, must be matched to the operational needs of military or civil use. Experience in existing ramjet propelled missiles capable of speeds up to Mach 4 can support the development effort. The potential mission and cost benefits of sustained hypersonic flight to both military and civil applications are tremendous. From the budget point of view, the possibility of sharing development costs between military and civil programs offers a specific advantage.

Source record↗

Thermomechanical Postbuckling of Shells

A number of issues involving the postbuckling of doubly-curved panels exposed to a non-uniform temperature field and subjected to a system of mechanical loads are considered in this paper. Effects played by transverse shear, initial geometric imperfections, membrane and thickness-wise temperature gradient, tangential edge constraints, linear/non-linear elastic foundation are incorporated and their implications on the non-linear response behavior of shells are discussed. Issues related with the delay of the occurrence of the snap-through buckling, alleviation of its intensity and even with its removal are addressed and remarks on conditions rendering a curved panel insensitive to initial geometric imperfections are included. Results on small vibration of shells about sub- and post-critical ranges are provided and structural modeling issues playing a non-negligible role towards a reliable prediction of the postbuckling behavior of shells under complex loading conditions are discussed. Results on non-linear response of flat reinforced panels subjected to thermomechanical loads are also presented. Finally, problems not covered by this article are briefly indicated.

Librescu, Liviu↗

Attitudinal Responses to Changes in Noise Exposure in Residential Communities

The purpose of this study is (1) to investigate the current body of knowledge encompassing two related topics: (a) to what extent can we reliably predict the change in people's attitudes in response to an abrupt change in noise exposure, and (b) after the change, is there a decay in the abrupt-change effect whereby people's attitudes slowly shift from their initial reaction to a steady-state value? and (2) to provide recommendations for any future work that may be needed. The literature search located 23 studies relating to one or both of the above topics. These prior studies shed considerable light on the current ability to predict initial reaction and decay effects. The literature makes one point very clear: Great care in both experimental design and data analysis is necessary to produce credible, convincing findings, both in the reanalysis of existing data and for planning future data acquisition and analysis studies. New airport studies must be designed to minimize nuisance variables and avoid past design features that may have introduced sufficient unexplained variance to mask sought after effects. Additionally, the study must be designed to tie in with previous investigations by incorporating similar survey questions and techniques.

Horonjeff, Richard D.↗

Theoretical and Experimental Determination of the Proton Affinity of (CF3CH2)2O

We report the experimental determination of the proton affinity of the molecule (CF3CH2)2O using chemical ionization mass spectrometry, and we compare it to the theoretical value obtained for protonation at the oxygen atom using the calculational methodology (MP2/6-31G**//MP2/3-21G). The proton affinity for this molecule as measured by bracketing experiments was between 724 kJ/mole and 741 kJ/mole. Ab initio (MP2/6-31G**//MP2/3-21G) calculations yield a value of about 729 kJ/mole, in agreement with the chemical ionization experiments. The results of these and related calculations suggest that the (MP2/6-31G**//MP2/3-21G) methodology is acceptable for estimating the proton affinities of partially-and fully-fluorinated methyl and ethyl ethers. We submit that any conclusions about the chemistry of fluoroether polymer lubricants based on their basicity can also be predicted reliably with such calculations.

Zehe, Michael J.↗

GISS Analysis of Surface Temperature Change

We describe the current GISS analysis of surface temperature change for the period 1880-1999 based primarily on meteorological station measurements. The global surface temperature in 1998 was the warmest in the period of instrumental data. The rate of temperature change was higher in the past 25 years than at any previous time in the period of instrumental data. The warmth of 1998 was too large and pervasive to be fully accounted for by the recent El Nino. Despite cooling in the first half of 1999, we suggest that the mean global temperature, averaged over 2-3 years, has moved to a higher level, analogous to the increase that occurred in the late 1970s. Warming in the United States over the past 50 years has been smaller than in most of the world, and over that period there was a slight cooling trend in the Eastern United States and the neighboring Atlantic Ocean. The spatial and temporal patterns of the temperature change suggest that more than one mechanism was involved in this regional cooling. The cooling trend in the United States, which began after the 1930s and is associated with ocean temperature change patterns, began to reverse after 1979. We suggest that further warming in the United States to a level rivaling the 1930s is likely in the next decade, but reliable prediction requires better understanding of decadal oscillations of ocean temperature.

Hansen, J.↗

Model Experiments and Model Descriptions

The Second Workshop on Stratospheric Models and Measurements Workshop (M&M II) is the continuation of the effort previously started in the first Workshop (M&M I, Prather and Remsberg [1993]) held in 1992. As originally stated, the aim of M&M is to provide a foundation for establishing the credibility of stratospheric models used in environmental assessments of the ozone response to chlorofluorocarbons, aircraft emissions, and other climate-chemistry interactions. To accomplish this, a set of measurements of the present day atmosphere was selected. The intent was that successful simulations of the set of measurements should become the prerequisite for the acceptance of these models as having a reliable prediction for future ozone behavior. This section is divided into two: model experiment and model descriptions. In the model experiment, participant were given the charge to design a number of experiments that would use observations to test whether models are using the correct mechanisms to simulate the distributions of ozone and other trace gases in the atmosphere. The purpose is closely tied to the needs to reduce the uncertainties in the model predicted responses of stratospheric ozone to perturbations. The specifications for the experiments were sent out to the modeling community in June 1997. Twenty eight modeling groups responded to the requests for input. The first part of this section discusses the different modeling group, along with the experiments performed. Part two of this section, gives brief descriptions of each model as provided by the individual modeling groups.

Jackman, Charles H.↗

Numerical Simulation of Receptivity for a Transition Experiment

The cost of fuel to overcome turbulence induced viscous drag on a commercial airplane constitutes a significant fraction of the operating cost of an airline. Achieving laminar flow and maintaining it over a large portion of the wing can significantly reduce the viscous drag, and hence the cost. Design of such laminar-flow-control wings and their practical operation requires the ability to accurately and reliably predict the transition from laminar to turbulent flow. The transition process begins with the conversion of environmental and surface disturbances into the instability waves of the flow by a process called receptivity. The goal of the current research project has been to improve the prediction of transition through a better understanding of the physics of receptivity. The initial objective of this work was to investigate the specific stability and receptivity characteristics of a particular experimental investigation of boundary layer receptivity at NASA Langley. Some simulation results using direct solutions of the linearized Navier-Stokes equations which modeled this experiment where presented in the 1999 APS DFD meeting. However, based on these initial investigations, it became clear that to cover the vast receptivity parameter space required for a practical transition prediction tool, more efficient methods would be required. Thus, the focus of this research was shifted from modeling this particular experiment to formulating and developing new techniques that could efficiently yet accurately predict receptivity for a wide range of disturbance conditions.

Collis, S. Scott↗

Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario

Evidence on a broad range of time scales, from Proterozoic to the most recent periods, shows that the Earth's climate responds sensitively to global forcings. In the past few decades the Earth's surface has warmed rapidly, apparently in response to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The conventional view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate in the 21st century. I will describe an alternate scenario that would slow the rate of global warming and reduce the danger of dramatic climate change. But reliable prediction of future climate change requires improved knowledge of the carbon cycle and global observations that allow interpretation of ongoing climate change.

Hansen, James E.↗