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Alternative Strategies for Exploring Mars and the Moons of Mars

The possible human exploration of Mars represents one of civilization s next major challenges and is an enterprise that would confirm the potential of humans to leave our home planet system and make our way outward into the cosmos. As exploration endeavors begin to set sights beyond low Earth orbit, potential exploration of the surface of Mars continues to serve as the horizon destination to help focus technology development and research efforts. Recent thoughts on exploration follow a flexible path approach beginning with missions that do not extend down into planetary gravity wells including surface exploration. Consistent with that flexible path strategy is the notion of exploring the moons of Mars, namely Phobos and Deimos, prior to exploring the surface. The premise behind this thought is that exploring Mars moons would be less costly and risky since these missions would avoid the difficulties associated with landing on the surface and subsequent ascent back to orbit. A complete assessment of this strategy has not been performed in the context of the flexible path approach and is needed to clearly understand all of the advantages and disadvantages. This paper examines the strategic implications of possible human exploration of the moons of Mars as a potential prelude to surface exploration. Various operational concepts for Phobos and Deimos exploration that include the infusion of different propulsion technologies are assessed in terms of mission duration, technologies required, overall risk and difficulty, and operational construct. Finally, the strategic implications of each concept are assessed to determine the overall key challenges and strategic links to other key flexible path destinations.

Drake, Bret G.↗

Assessing the Relocation of Artemis Foundational Lunar Surface Concepts

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has defined a functionally based Moon to Mars (M2M) architecture consisting of four key human exploration segments: human lunar return (HLR), foundational exploration (FE), sustained lunar evolution (SLE), and humans to Mars (H2M). These segments are portions of the architecture which represent a stepwise increase in complexity and achievement of M2M objectives [1]. As systems are deployed during the FE segment, it may be desired or even necessary to relocate these elements on the lunar surface as the architecture transitions into the SLE segment. While some Artemis elements under development, such as rovers, are being designed for mobility during both crewed and uncrewed/dormant periods, other architectural concepts do not currently carry a mobility capability. In preparation for the Agency’s 2023 Architecture Concept Review (ACR), a team was assembled to establish a methodology for assessing the relocation feasibility of normally stationary elements. Such a capability could be applied locally or regionally, and might allow for re-purposing previously occupied terrain, expansion of exploration range, aggregation of habitation elements, or retiring systems at the end of their useful service life. The assembled NASA team investigated the relocation trade space through defining a representative concept of operations (ConOps) and assessing possible system impacts. The team focused predominately on the relocation of medium and large surface habitat architectural concepts through surface-based traverses utilizing separable mobility platforms (SMP). A representative mobility platform model was placed through simulation to analyze the possible energy requirements and dynamic illumination impacts. Preliminary assessment indicated that element relocation might be achievable, however significant system and architectural-level risks still need to be quantified. Future analysis will assist in determining what degree of element relocation provides the greatest benefit to achieving a sustained lunar presence. [1] NASA. (2022). Moon to Mars Objectives. Retrieved from: https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/m2m-objectives-exec-summary.pdf

Artemis↗

Assessing the Relocation of Artemis Foundational Lunar Surface Concepts

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has defined a functionally based Moon to Mars (M2M) architecture consisting of four key human exploration segments: human lunar return (HLR), foundational exploration (FE), sustained lunar evolution (SLE), and humans to Mars (H2M). These segments are portions of the architecture which represent a stepwise increase in complexity and achievement of M2M objectives [1]. As systems are deployed during the FE segment, it may be desired or even necessary to relocate these elements on the lunar surface as the architecture transitions into the SLE segment. While some Artemis elements under development, such as rovers, are being designed for mobility during both crewed and uncrewed/dormant periods, other architectural concepts do not currently carry a mobility capability. In preparation for the Agency’s 2023 Architecture Concept Review (ACR), a team was assembled to establish a methodology for assessing the relocation feasibility of normally stationary elements. Such a capability could be applied locally or regionally, and might allow for re-purposing previously occupied terrain, expansion of exploration range, aggregation of habitation elements, or retiring systems at the end of their useful service life. The assembled NASA team investigated the relocation trade space through defining a representative concept of operations (ConOps) and assessing possible system impacts. The team focused predominately on the relocation of medium and large surface habitat architectural concepts through surface-based traverses utilizing separable mobility platforms (SMP). A representative mobility platform model was placed through simulation to analyze the possible energy requirements and dynamic illumination impacts. Preliminary assessment indicated that element relocation might be achievable, however significant system and architectural-level risks still need to be quantified. Future analysis will assist in determining what degree of element relocation provides the greatest benefit to achieving a sustained lunar presence. [1] NASA. (2022). Moon to Mars Objectives. Retrieved from: https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/m2m-objectives-exec-summary.pdf

Artemis↗

Shape Effect Analysis of Aluminum Projectile Impact on Whipple Shields

The informed design with respect to hypervelocity collisions involving micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) is influential to the success of space missions. For an orbit comparable to that of the International Space Station, velocities for MMOD can range from 1 to 15 km/s, with an average velocity around 10 km/cu s. The high energy released during collisions at these speeds can result in damage to a spacecraft, or worst-case, loss of the spacecraft, thus outlining the importance of methods to predict the likelihood and extent of damage due to an impact. Through experimental testing and numerical simulations, substantial work has been conducted to better understand the effects of hypervelocity impacts (HVI) on spacecraft systems and shields; however, much of the work has been focused on spherical impacting particles. To improve environment models for the analysis of MMOD, a large-scale satellite break-up test was performed at the Arnold Engineering and Development Complex to better understand the varied impactor geometries that could be generated from a large impact. As a part of the post-experiment analysis, an undertaking to characterize the irregular fragments generated is currently being performed by the University of Florida under the management of NASA's Orbital Debris Program Office at Johnson Space Center (JSC). DebriSat was a representative, modern LEO satellite that was catastrophically broken up in a HVI test. The test chamber was lined with a soft-catch system of foam panels that captured the fragments after impact. Initial predictions put the number of fragments larger than 2mm generated from the HVI at roughly 85,000. The number of fragments thus far extracted from the foam panels has exceeded 100,000, with that number continuously increasing. The shapes of the fragments vary dependent upon the material. Carbon-fiber reinforced polymer pieces, for instance, are abundantly found as thin, flat slivers. The characterization of these fragments with respect to their mass, size, and material composition needs to be summarized in a form that can be used in MMOD analysis. The mechanism that brings these fragment traits into MMOD analysis is through ballistic limit equations (BLE) that have been developed largely for a few types of materials1. As a BLE provides the failure threshold for a shield or spacecraft component based on parameters such as the projectile impact velocity and size, and the target's materials, thickness, and configuration, it is used to design protective shields for spacecraft such as Whipple shields (WS) to an acceptable risk level. The majority of experiments and simulations to test shields and validate BLEs have, heretofore, largely used spheres as the impactor, not properly reflecting the irregular shapes of MMOD. This shortfall has motivated a numerical impact analysis study of HVI involving non-spherical geometries to identify key parameters that environment models should provide.

Carrasquilla, Maria J.↗

Application of Sequential Design of Experiments (SDoE) to Large Pilot-Scale Solvent-Based CO2 Capture Process at Technology Centre Mongstad (TCM)

The United States Department of Energy’s Carbon Capture Simulation for Industry Impact (CCSI2) program has developed a framework for sequential design of experiments (SDoE) that aims to maximize knowledge gained from budget- and schedule-limited pilot scale testing. SDoE was applied to the planning and execution of campaigns for testing CO2 capture systems at pilot-scale in order to optimally allocate resources available for the testing. In this methodology, a stochastic process model is developed by quantifying the parametric uncertainty in submodels of interest; for a solvent-based CO2 capture system, these may include physical properties and equipment performance submodels (e.g., mass transfer, interfacial area). This uncertainty is propagated through the full process model, over variable operating conditions, for estimating the resulting uncertainty in key model outputs (e.g., percentage of CO2 capture, solvent regeneration energy requirement). In developing a data collection plan, the predicted output uncertainty is incorporated into an algorithm that seeks simultaneously to select process operating conditions for which the predicted uncertainty is relatively high and to ensure that the entire space of operation is well represented. This test plan is then used to guide operation of the pilot plant at varying steady-state conditions, with resulting process data incorporated into the existing model using Bayesian inference to refine parameter distributions. The updated stochastic model, with reduced parametric uncertainty from data collected, is then used to guide additional data collection, thus the sequential nature of the experimental design. The SDoE process was implemented at the pilot test unit (12 MWe in scale) at Norway’s Technology Centre Mongstad (TCM) in a summer 2018 test campaign with aqueous monoethanolamine (MEA). During the test campaign, the varied operating conditions included the flowrates of circulated solvent, flue gas, and reboiler steam and the CO2 concentration in the flue gas. The process data were used to update probability distributions of mass transfer and interfacial area parameters of a stochastic process model developed by the CCSI2 team. Two iterations of the SDoE process were executed, resulting in the uncertainty in model predicted CO2 capture percentage decreasing by an average of 58.0 ± 4.7% over the full input space of interest. This work demonstrates the potential of the SDoE process for model refinement through reduction in process model parametric uncertainty, and ultimately risk in scale-up, in CO2 capture technology performance.

carbon capture↗

AE (Acoustic Emission) for Flip-Chip CGA/FCBGA Defect Detection

C-mode scanning acoustic microscopy (C-SAM) is a nondestructive inspection technique that uses ultrasound to show the internal feature of a specimen. A very high or ultra-high-frequency ultrasound passes through a specimen to produce a visible acoustic microimage (AMI) of its inner features. As ultrasound travels into a specimen, the wave is absorbed, scattered or reflected. The response is highly sensitive to the elastic properties of the materials and is especially sensitive to air gaps. This specific characteristic makes AMI the preferred method for finding "air gaps" such as delamination, cracks, voids, and porosity. C-SAM analysis, which is a type of AMI, was widely used in the past for evaluation of plastic microelectronic circuits, especially for detecting delamination of direct die bonding. With the introduction of the flip-chip die attachment in a package; its use has been expanded to nondestructive characterization of the flip-chip solder bumps and underfill. Figure 1.1 compares visual and C-SAM inspection approaches for defect detection, especially for solder joint interconnections and hidden defects. C-SAM is specifically useful for package features like internal cracks and delamination. C-SAM not only allows for the visualization of the interior features, it has the ability to produce images on layer-by-layer basis. Visual inspection; however, is only superior to C-SAM for the exposed features including solder dewetting, microcracks, and contamination. Ideally, a combination of various inspection techniques - visual, optical and SEM microscopy, C-SAM, and X-ray - need to be performed in order to assure quality at part, package, and system levels. This reports presents evaluations performed on various advanced packages/assemblies, especially the flip-chip die version of ball grid array/column grid array (BGA/CGA) using C-SAM equipment. Both external and internal equipment was used for evaluation. The outside facility provided images of the key features that could be detected using the most advanced C-SAM equipment with a skilled operator. Investigation continued using in-house equipment with its limitations. For comparison, representative X-rays of the assemblies were also gathered to show key defect detection features of these non-destructive techniques. Key images gathered and compared are: Compared the images of 2D X-ray and C-SAM for a plastic LGA assembly showing features that could be detected by either NDE technique. For this specific case, X-ray was a clear winner. Evaluated flip-chip CGA and FCBGA assemblies with and without heat sink by C-SAM. Only the FCCGA package that had no heat sink could be fully analyzed for underfill and bump quality. Cross-sectional microscopy did not revealed peripheral delamination features detected by C-SAM. Analyzed a number of fine pitch PBGA assemblies by C-SAM. Even though the internal features of the package assemblies could be detected, C-SAM was unable to detect solder joint failure at either the package or board level. Twenty times touch ups by solder iron with 700degF tip temperature, each with about 5 second duration, did not induce defects to be detected by C-SAM images. Other techniques need to be considered to induce known defects for characterization. Given NASA's emphasis on the use of microelectronic packages and assemblies and quality assurance on workmanship defect detection, understanding key features of various inspection systems that detect defects in the early stages of package and assembly is critical to developing approaches that will minimize future failures. Additional specific, tailored non-destructive inspection approaches could enable low-risk insertion of these advanced electronic packages having hidden and fine features.

Ghaffarian, Reza↗

Feasibility of using reactive silicate particles with temperature-responsive coatings to enhance the security of geologic carbon storage

The large-scale deployment of geologic carbon storage will require minimizing the risk of CO 2 leakage. Here we report on a novel strategy to seal leakage pathways by injecting functionalized reactive calcium silicate (CaSiO 3 ) particles. The particles consist of a mineral silicate core within a temperature-sensitive Poly(N,N-dimethylaminoethyl methacrylate) coating that limits contact between the core and the surrounding CO 2 (aq) above a switching temperature making them relatively unreactive deep in the subsurface. If the CO 2 leaks to shallower depths and cooler temperatures, the coatings would extend and enable the silicate core to react with CO 2(aq) to form solid carbonate precipitates that reduce the permeability of the fracture or flow path. A combined laboratory- and simulation-based investigation was conducted to explore key early-stage research questions related to the feasibility of this leakage management strategy. Sand columns were injected with either coated or uncoated CaSiO 3 particles and the permeability was measured before and after exposure to CO 2 . Experiments were conducted at 35 °C and 70 °C, a range that spans the switching temperature for the coatings. Results show that at the cooler temperature the coating effectively enabled reaction and permeability reduction. At higher temperatures, the coated particles limited mineral carbonation and the permeability decrease was minimal compared to columns with uncoated particles. Here, the morphology and location of the precipitates provides insight about permeability evolution. Model simulations of 2D radial particle transport from an injection point provided insight into the effects of particle size, coating properties, and concentrations of particles in several representative rock formations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Safety Analysis of FeCrAl Accident-Tolerant Fuels with Increased Enrichment and Extended Burnup

The U.S. nuclear industry is facing a strong challenge to maintain regulatory-required levels of safety while ensuring economic competitiveness to stay in business. Safety remains a key parameter for all aspects related to the operation of light water reactor nuclear power plants (NPPs), and it can be achieved more economically by using a risk-informed ecosystem, such as that being developed by the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis Pathway under the U.S. Department of Energy Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program. This program is promoting a wide range of research and development activities to maximize both the safety and economically efficient performance of NPPs through improved scientific understanding, especially given that many plants are considering a second license renewal. The Risk-Informed Systems Analysis Pathway has two main goals: (1) The deployment of methodologies and technologies that enable a better representation of the safety margins and factors that contribute to cost and safety, and (2) The development of advanced applications that enable cost-effective plant operation. As part of this pathway, the Enhanced Resilient Plant project refers to an NPP where safety is improved by implementing various measures, such as accident-tolerant fuels, diverse and flexible coping strategies, enhancements to plant components and systems, incorporation of augmented or new passive cooling systems, and utilization of advanced battery technologies. The objective of the Enhanced Resilient Plant project is to use novel methods and computational tools to enhance existing reactors’ safety while reducing operational costs. This report documents research and development conducted in support of deployment of accident-tolerant fuels. This project performed safety analyses for the steady-state normal operation, anticipated operational occurrences, and design-basis accidents of a representative four-loop pressurized water reactor model with Zr and FeCrAl accident-tolerant fuel clad with higher enrichment and burnup supporting plant refueling cycles of 18 and 24 months. The source terms and environmental impacts were studied for a large-break loss of coolant accident, including uncertainty analyses.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A global assessment of policy tools to support climate adaptation

Governments, businesses, and civil society organizations have diverse policy tools to incentivize adaptation. Policy tools can shape the type and extent of adaptation, and therefore, function either as barriers or enablers for reducing risk and vulnerability. Using data from a systematic review of academic literature on global adaptation responses to climate change (n = 1549 peer-reviewed articles), we categorize the types of policy tools used to shape climate adaptation. We apply qualitative and quantitative analyses to assess the contexts where particular tools are used, along with equity implications for groups targeted by the tools, and the tools’ relationships with transformational adaptation indicators such as the depth, scope, and speed of adaptation. We find diverse types of tools documented across sectors and geographic regions. We also identify a mismatch between the tools that consider equity and those that yield more transformational adaptations. Direct regulations, plans, and capacity building are associated with higher depth and scope of adaptation (thus transformational adaptation), while economic instruments, information provisioning, and networks are not; the latter tools, however, are more likely to target marginalized groups in their design and implementation. We identify multiple research gaps, including a need to assess instrument mixes rather than single tools and to assess adaptations that result from policy implementation. Key policy insights Information-based approaches, networks, and economic instruments are the most frequently documented adaptation policy tools worldwide. Direct regulations, plans, and capacity building are associated with higher depth and scope of adaptation, and thus more transformational adaptation. Capacity building, economic instruments, networks, and information provisioning approaches are more likely to target specific marginalized groups and thus equity challenges. There are many regions and sectors where certain tools are not widely documented (e.g. regulations and plans in Africa and Asia), representing a key research gap.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The impact of capillary heterogeneity on CO 2 flow and trapping across scales

Capillary heterogeneity has been identified over the last decade as a key control on subsurface CO 2 flow behavior during geological CO 2 sequestration. These heterogeneities can be formed in all sedimentary rocks, ranging from slight variations in the sand grain sizes to extensive sequences of interbedded sands, shales, and limestones. Capillary heterogeneity has been largely, although not entirely, overlooked in subsurface flow modeling because it is assumed to only directly influence fluid redistribution over scales of centimeters to meters. However, even small-scale fluid movements can result in dramatic impacts on the mobility and trapping of the CO 2 over kilometers. Therefore, neglecting capillary heterogeneity at multiple scales could potentially lead to errors in modeling and predicting field-scale plume migration. In this review paper, we aim to provide a consistent overview to (1) establish that capillary heterogeneity can have a major impact on CO 2 plume migration, (2) establish the respective length scales at which capillary heterogeneity matters, and (3) provide guidance for numerical modeling. This review covers pertinent literature and extracts key observations from the core to the field scales. Experimental studies have shown that millimeter-decimeter scale capillary heterogeneity can cause the so-called capillary heterogeneity trapping in addition to pore-scale residual trapping. Even at such a small scale, capillary heterogeneity can already lead to complex upscaled constitutive relationships, such as flow-rate dependent and anisotropic relative permeability, which affects field-scale CO 2 migration even when field-scale heterogeneities are present. Under gravity-dominated flow regimes, centimeter-meter scale capillary heterogeneity can entrap a significant amount of CO 2 at field scale, not just after imbibition but also during drainage. In certain cases, the presence of capillary heterogeneity can even completely stop the vertical movement of the CO 2 plume, hence greatly reducing leakage risks. At meter-kilometer scale, the influence of capillary heterogeneity is more pronounced and can hinder or redirect CO 2 migration in both lateral and vertical directions. The impact of capillary heterogeneity across multiple spatial scales poses a great challenge in modeling CO 2 migration at field scale, because it is practically impossible to build a field-scale earth model with grid blocks at millimeter scale. We recommend a hierarchical modeling approach to address this challenge. At field scale, earth models are built to capture geological features and heterogeneities in high but still practical grid resolutions. For each facies or rock type of the field-scale model, high- resolution meter-scale “conceptual” models are built with millimeter-scale grid blocks to capture representative fine-scale bedding geometries and heterogeneities in various environments of deposition, bridging the gap from subcore scale to the size of a field-scale simulation grid block. Upscaling is then used to preserve the smaller-scale flow dynamics of various rock types in field-scale simulations. Here, future work is needed to (1) refine, improve, and validate the hierarchical modeling approach; (2) build libraries of fine-scale bedding models for facies in various environments of deposition; (3) quantify multiscale capillary heterogeneity effects under subsurface uncertainties; (4) gain learning from different storage formations; and (5) establish best practices that balance accuracy and computational speed.

Capillary heterogeneity↗

The J-2X Upper Stage Engine: From Heritage to Hardware

NASA's Global Exploration Strategy requires safe, reliable, robust, efficient transportation to support sustainable operations from Earth to orbit and into the far reaches of the solar system. NASA selected the Ares I crew launch vehicle and the Ares V cargo launch vehicle to provide that transportation. Guiding principles in creating the architecture represented by the Ares vehicles were the maximum use of heritage hardware and legacy knowledge, particularly Space Shuttle assets, and commonality between the Ares vehicles where possible to streamline the hardware development approach and reduce programmatic, technical, and budget risks. The J-2X exemplifies those goals. It was selected by the Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS) as the upper stage propulsion for the Ares I Upper Stage and the Ares V Earth Departure Stage (EDS). The J-2X is an evolved version ofthe historic J-2 engine that successfully powered the second stage of the Saturn I launch vehicle and the second and third stages of the Saturn V launch vehicle. The Constellation architecture, however, requires performance greater than its predecessor. The new architecture calls for larger payloads delivered to the Moon and demands greater loss of mission reliability and numerous other requirements associated with human rating that were not applied to the original J-2. As a result, the J-2X must operate at much higher temperatures, pressures, and flow rates than the heritage J-2, making it one of the highest performing gas generator cycle engines ever built, approaching the efficiency of more complex stage combustion engines. Development is focused on early risk mitigation, component and subassembly test, and engine system test. The development plans include testing engine components, including the subscale injector, main igniter, powerpack assembly (turbopumps, gas generator and associated ducting and structural mounts), full-scale gas generator, valves, and control software with hardware-in-the-loop. Testing expanded in 2007, accompanied by the refinement of the design through several key milestones. This paper discusses those 2007 tests and milestones, as well as updates key developments in 2008.

Byrd, THomas↗

Defining A Modelling Language to Support Functional Hazard Assessment

Functional Hazard Assessment (FHA) is a key early-stage engineering process that supports the incorporation of safety in design by identifying the high-level functional hazards the system may encounter. While many FHA-like methodologies have been proposed in the design engineering literature, many of these methodologies have had difficulty becoming accepted industry practice. Industry standards, on the other hand, either provide too little recommendation on how to represent the function of the system to perform FHA, or rely on existing design artefacts which insufficiently support the goals of the process. This paper presents some of the problems with current modeling languages (both proposed and used) for FHA which limit the scope, expressiveness, flexibility, and precision of the analysis. It then outlines desirable principles an FHA-supporting analysis language should embody, and introduces the Functional Reasoning Design Language (FRDL), a formal modeling language for describing the functional elements of a system and their interactions, which aims to satisfy these principles. To demonstrate the use of this language, the modeling and hazard analysis of a disaster response drone is presented. While this case study is limited in scope, it highlights how FRDL can represent system function while reducing the ambiguity present in typical FHA-supporting functional modeling languages

Hazard Assessment↗

Surface, Water, and Air Biocharacterization (SWAB) Flight Experiment

The determination of risk from infectious disease during spaceflight missions is composed of several factors including both the concentration and characteristics of the microorganisms to which the crew are exposed. Thus, having a good understanding of the microbial ecology aboard spacecraft provides the necessary information to mitigate health risks to the crew. While preventive measures are taken to minimize the presence of pathogens on spacecraft, medically significant organisms have been isolated from both the Mir and International Space Station (ISS). Historically, the method for isolation and identification of microorganisms from spacecraft environmental samples depended upon their growth on culture media. Unfortunately, only a fraction of the organisms may grow on a specific culture medium, potentially omitting those microorganisms whose nutritional and physical requirements for growth are not met. To address this bias in our understanding of the ISS environment, the Surface, Water, and Air Biocharacterization (SWAB) Flight Experiment was designed to investigate and develop monitoring technology to provide better microbial characterization. For the SWAB flight experiment, we hypothesized that environmental analysis using non-culture-based technologies would reveal microorganisms, allergens, and microbial toxins not previously reported in spacecraft, allowing for a more complete health assessment. Key findings during this experiment included: a) Generally, advanced molecular techniques were able to reveal a few organisms not recovered using culture-based methods; however, there is no indication that current monitoring is "missing" any medically significant bacteria or fungi. b) Molecular techniques have tremendous potential for microbial monitoring, however, sample preparation and data analysis present challenges for spaceflight hardware. c) Analytical results indicate that some molecular techniques, such as denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE), can be much less sensitive than culture-based methods. d) More sensitive molecular techniques, such as quantitative polymerase chain reaction (QPCR), were able to identify viral DNA from ISS environments, suggesting potential transfer of the organism between crewmembers. In addition, the hardware selected for this experiment represented advances for next-generation sample collection. The advanced nature of this collection hardware was noted, when the Sartorius MD8 Air Port air sampler from the SWAB experiment remained on board ISS at the request of JAXA investigators, who intend to use it in completion of their microbial ecology experiment.

Castro, V. A.↗

PV Performance Modeling and Stakeholder Engagement (Final Technical Report)

This core capability project’s objective is to increase the value of photovoltaic (PV) performance models by improving their functionality, demonstrating, and quantifying their validity, and offering a wide range of stakeholder engagement opportunities. In FY22-24, we developed new and improved modeling algorithms and functions to represent PV performance more accurately in a variety of environments and conditions. The “Model parameter toolkit” was developed and includes functions to translate between different module temperature models, incidence angle modifier models, and single-diode models. A new modeling capability named “PV Atlas” was also developed leveraging Sandia’s High Performance Computing resources. This capability allows us to investigate several questions and provide climate-specific best practices and geographic data files; all these are hosted on an interactive website on Sandia’s GitHub and can be used for training, system optimization, or to provide best practices for uncertainty reduction. For model validation, we published high-quality PV performance, and weather data; these data are well documented, filtered, and processed for quality and include examples on how to run PV simulations. We also developed well documented, standardized methods for validating PV models and ran independent model validation and 2 blind modeling intercomparisons engaging with 49 organizations from 17 countries. We co-led and contributed to a growing, well documented and maintained suite of open-source functions for PV modeling (i.e., the pvlib-python) and we outreached to the PV modeling stakeholders via the PVPMC workshops and web resources. In addition, this project supported US representation and leadership for the International Energy Agency (IEA) PVPS Task 13; specifically, members of our team led and supported 3 subtasks on: 1) Best practices for the optimization of bifacial photovoltaic tracking, 2) Extreme weather events and their multiple impact on PV power plants: Risks, failure mechanisms and mitigation strategies, and 3) Best practice guidelines for the use of economic and technical Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). This project resulted in the publications of 14 peer reviewed journal papers, 37 conference presentations, 6 SAND reports, 5 public datasets and 6 new webpages on the PVPMC website. It supported the release of 13 pvlib-python versions where 28 enhancements were from this PV Performance Modeling project. We co-organized 5 PVPMC workshops in FY22-24 with the participation of 214 unique institutions and around 700 participants. The PVPMC website was redesigned, and its reliability was improved; it receives over 50,000 visitors/year from 202 unique countries.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Simulation of TGF-Beta Activation by Low-Dose HZE Radiation in a Cell Culture

High charge (Z) and energy (E) (HZE) nuclei comprised in the galactic cosmic rays are main contributors to space radiation risk. They induce many lesions in living matter such as non-specific oxidative damage and the double-strand breaks (DSBs), which are considered key precursors of early and late effects of radiation. There is increasing evidence that cells respond collectively rather than individually to radiation, suggesting the importance of cell signaling1. The transforming growth factor (TGF ) is a signaling peptide that is expressed in nearly all cell type and regulates a large array of cellular processes2. TGF have been shown to mediate cellular response to DNA damage3 and to induce apoptosis in non-irradiated cells cocultured with irradiated cells4. TFG molecules are secreted by cells in an inactive complex known as the latency-associated peptide (LAP). TGF is released from the LAP by a conformational change triggered by proteases, thrombospondin-1, integrins, acidic conditions and .OH radical5. TGF then binds to cells receptors and activates a cascade of events mediated by Smad proteins6, which might interfere with the repair of DNA. Meanwhile, increasingly sophisticated Brownian Dynamics (BD) algorithms have appeared recently in the literature7 and can be applied to study the interaction of molecules with receptors. These BD computer models have contributed to the elucidation of signal transduction, ligand accumulation and autocrine loops in the epidermal growth factor (EGF) and its receptor (EFGR) system8. To investigate the possible roles of TGF in an irradiated cell culture, our Monte-Carlo simulation codes of the radiation track structure9 will be used to calculate the activation of TFG triggered by .OH produced by low doses of HZE ions. The TGF molecules will then be followed by a BD algorithm in a medium representative of a cell culture to estimate the number of activated receptors.

Plante, Ianik↗

Landslides in West Coast Metropolitan Areas: The Role of Extreme Weather Events

Rainfall-induced landslides represent a pervasive issue in areas where extreme rainfall intersects complex terrain. A farsighted management of landslide risk requires assessing how landslide hazard will change in coming decades and thus requires, inter alia, that we understand what rainfall events are most likely to trigger landslides and how global warming will affect the frequency of such weather events. We take advantage of 9 years of landslide occurrence data compiled by collating Google news reports and of a high-resolution satellite-based daily rainfall data to investigate what weather triggers landslide along the West Coast US. We show that, while this landslide compilation cannot provide consistent and widespread monitoring everywhere, it captures enough of the events in the major urban areas that it can be used to identify the relevant relationships between landslides and rainfall events in Puget Sound, the Bay Area, and greater Los Angeles. In all these regions, days that recorded landslides have rainfall distributions that are skewed away from dry and low-rainfall accumulations and towards heavy intensities. However, large daily accumulation is the main driver of enhanced hazard of landslides only in Puget Sound. There, landslide are often clustered in space and time and major events are primarily driven by synoptic scale variability, namely "atmospheric rivers" of high humidity air hitting anywhere along the West Coast, and the interaction of frontal system with the coastal orography. The relationship between landslide occurrences and daily rainfall is less robust in California, where antecedent precipitation (in the case of the Bay area) and the peak intensity of localized downpours at sub-daily time scales (in the case of Los Angeles) are key factors not captured by the same-day accumulations. Accordingly, we suggest that the assessment of future changes in landslide hazard for the entire the West Coast requires consideration of future changes in the occurrence and intensity of atmospheric rivers, in their duration and clustering, and in the occurrence of short-duration (sub-daily) extreme rainfall as well. Major regional landslide events, in which multiple occurrences are recorded in the catalog for the same day, are too rare to allow a statistical characterization of their triggering events, but a case study analysis indicates that a variety of synoptic-scale events can be involved, including not only atmospheric rivers but also broader cold- and warm-front precipitation. That a news-based catalog of landslides is accurate enough to allow the identification of different landslide/ rainfall relationships in the major urban areas along the US West Coast suggests that this technology can potentially be used for other English-language cities and could become an even more powerful tool if expanded to other languages and non-traditional news sources, such as social media.

landslides↗

Electrochemical Control for Corrosion in Molten Chlorides During CSP Plant Operation

The Liquid Pathway of the Concentrating Solar Power Generation 3 (CSP Gen3) program proposed low-cost molten chloride salt for energy storage. However, online corrosion control was identified as a remining major risk of the Liquid Pathway approach. This project addressed that risk. Electrochemical solutions for corrosion mitigation during CSP plant operation were investigated and their feasibility and scalability were evaluated. The leading cause of corrosion in molten chloride salt systems was identified as corrosive impurities that form within the salt upon exposure to trace amounts of air and moisture. Leveraging electrochemistry, reduction/oxidation reactions can be employed to remove these corrosive impurities. In Phase 1 of this project, a bench-scale batch electrochemical reactor was designed, fabricated, and used to assess the kinetics and thermodynamics of electrochemical salt purification. In Phase 2, a laboratory-scale flow reactor was designed, fabricated, and used to assess the efficacy of the electrochemical method under flowing conditions. Results show that under proposed operating conditions for the Liquid Pathway Gen3 Pilot Plant, the electrochemical method is significantly more effective at removing impurities than alternative chemical and thermal methods, and that the electrochemical method produces less harmful byproducts. A key advance made in the course of this project was the development of a 2-electrode method for electrochemical purification that is more scalable than previously developed 3 electrode methods. This novel method is based on Magnesium (Mg) electrowinning. A provisional patent based on this invention has been submitted (USPTO Application No. 63/480,355). Additional key advances made during this project include assessment of the effect of dissimilar alloys on corrosion, kinetic and thermodynamic evaluation of thermolysis reactions of impurities within the molten salt, characterization of byproducts of purification reactions, and generation of IP focused on isolating value-added products using molten salt-based electrochemistry that could be deployed to valorize the process (USPTO Application No. 63/478,806). Ultimately, this project represented a step toward feasibility of Liquid Pathway Gen3 CSP. The method developed under this project could significantly reduce capital expenses and operating costs and increase plant profitability by enabling use of less expensive alloys, decreasing maintenance, and increasing plant longevity. Key focus areas for follow-on work have been identified as 1) evaluation of the efficacy of the electrochemical method under turbulent conditions in a larger flow system, such as the FASTR loop, 2) development of methods for removal of purification byproducts, 3) modeling pilot and industrial scale performance of electrochemical salt purification during plant operation and 4) further assessment of the effect of impurities on salt vapor phase.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The United States' Next Generation of Atmospheric Composition and Coastal Ecosystem Measurements: NASA's Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events (GEO-CAPE) Mission

The Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events (GEO-CAPE) mission was recommended by the National Research Council's (NRC's) Earth Science Decadal Survey to measure tropospheric trace gases and aerosols and coastal ocean phytoplankton, water quality, and biogeochemistry from geostationary orbit, providing continuous observations within the field of view. To fulfill the mandate and address the challenge put forth by the NRC, two GEO-CAPE Science Working Groups (SWGs), representing the atmospheric composition and ocean color disciplines, have developed realistic science objectives using input drawn from several community workshops. The GEO-CAPE mission will take advantage of this revolutionary advance in temporal frequency for both of these disciplines. Multiple observations per day are required to explore the physical, chemical, and dynamical processes that determine tropospheric composition and air quality over spatial scales ranging from urban to continental, and over temporal scales ranging from diurnal to seasonal. Likewise, high-frequency satellite observations are critical to studying and quantifying biological, chemical, and physical processes within the coastal ocean. These observations are to be achieved from a vantage point near 95deg-100degW, providing a complete view of North America as well as the adjacent oceans. The SWGs have also endorsed the concept of phased implementation using commercial satellites to reduce mission risk and cost. GEO-CAPE will join the global constellation of geostationary atmospheric chemistry and coastal ocean color sensors planned to be in orbit in the 2020 time frame.

Atmospheric composition↗