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DOE OSTI2024

How Heat Pumps Can Bring Relief to Households

An estimated 230,000 low-income households in Los Angeles lack access to cooling and are projected to experience more than two months of dangerous indoor temperatures (above 86 F) by 2035. Multifamily building residents are at much higher risk of dangerous heat exposure. Through robust modeling and analysis in the LA100 Equity Strategies project, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) identified strategies that could save lives and maintain safe home temperatures for low-income households during heat waves, including the installation of whole-home heat pumps.

buildings↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fusion Energy Research at Idaho National Laboratory: Experimentation and Simulation to Support Safety and Rapid Technology Development

Research into fusion energy is growing rapidly, responding to a call for sustainable sources of energy to replace fossil fuels and mitigate climate change. Within the United States, at least, researchers are also responding to the “Bold Decadal Vision” proposed by the White House, seeking to have a commercially relevant fusion pilot plant deployed within a decade. Before this can become a reality, many Fusion Science & Technology (FS&T) gaps remain. For over 45 years, Idaho National Laboratory has been at the forefront of addressing these FS&T gaps in the context of fusion safety and technology via the operation of world-leading experimental facilities within the Safety and Tritium Applied Research (STAR) Facility. Here, INL focuses on the tritium fuel cycle, conceptual system design studies, risk assessment, waste management, and materials safety. Modeling and Simulation (M&S) has also been a component of this portfolio of research, but, early on, focused on individual systems. Since 2019, active development and research on integrated whole device modeling tools based on the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework has been undertaken. This has culminated in a MOOSE-based version of the Tritium Migration and Analysis Program (TMAP), an INL code historically focused on tritium permeation and trapping within fusion systems. More recently, INL Laboratory Directed Research and Development funds have been used to create the Fusion ENergy Integrated multiphys-X (FENIX) code focused on scrape-off layer plasma physics and the first wall of a magnetically confined fusion device. This talk will focus on an overview of INL activities in the FS&T research area, with a particular focus on recent M&S activities and results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-resolution modeling of indoor radon exposure with uncertainty quantification in Utah

Indoor radon accounts for 37% of population-level exposure to ionizing radiation in the United States. However, radon metrics are typically reported at coarse spatial scales, potentially obscuring meaningful local variation. We developed a high-resolution modeling framework to estimate indoor radon concentrations across Utah while explicitly quantifying predictive uncertainty. A total of 19,497 residential radon measurements collected between 2006 and 2017 were combined with environmental and housing characteristics and analyzed using a geospatial neural network that accommodates spatial dependence and nonlinear associations. Predictions were generated on a uniform hexagonal grid at 0.73 km2 resolution (H3 level 8). Out-of-sample predictions aggregated to the H3 level 8 grid showed good agreement with observed concentrations (Pearson r=0.64), while household-level predictions exhibited more moderate agreement (r=0.45). The model produced well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, with 24.1% of held-out observations exceeding the predicted 75th-percentile threshold. Maps of predicted radon concentrations and the probability of exceeding the U.S. EPA action level of 148 Bq/m3 (4 pCi/L) revealed substantial fine-scale spatial heterogeneity that was not apparent in conventional coarse-resolution summaries, with greater local variability observed in densely monitored urban counties than in sparsely sampled regions. High-resolution radon models that explicitly quantify uncertainty provide a useful framework for characterizing the spatial distribution of indoor radon and identifying areas of elevated exceedance risk. These findings highlight the value of fine-scale monitoring data and uncertainty-aware modeling approaches for radon exposure assessment, environmental risk characterization, and radon-related health research.

Wu, Yunhan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000178842994)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simulation of Multiphase Flow and Poromechanical Effects Around Injection Wells in CO 2 Storage Sites

In geological CO 2 storage operations, wellbore deformations and leakage pathways formations can occur around injection and abandoned wells subjected to high rates and long-term CO 2 injection. To guide engineering design and prevent CO 2 leakage risks, a full understanding of the underlying physics and robust numerical models is necessary to evaluate the response of underground formations in the near wellbore region and in the reservoir. In this study, a multi-scale and multi-physics open-source simulator (GEOS) is used to simulate multiphase flow and poromechanical deformations over time in three dimensions. The governing equations for mechanical deformations of the rock body and multiphase compositional fluid flow within the rock matrix are solved with a fully coupled finite element and finite volume approach. The Drucker–Prager model with friction hardening is applied to simulate elastoplastic deformation and a multiphase fluid model with power-law correlations for relative permeability is used to model the migration of CO 2 plume, which are coupled with numerical implicit scheme. Simulation results are verified against multiple analytical solutions for multiphase flow and wellbore problems, thus demonstrating the accuracy of this advanced simulator. In two engineering applications, here we highlight the impact of elastoplastic deformation and coupled modeling for assessing induced displacements and stress perturbations, which are more pronounced in the near wellbore regions. This work focuses on short-term processes in the vicinity of injection wells where stress evolutions, rock deformations and multiphase compositional flow and transport are simulated jointly to ensure wellbore stability and prevent damage. This fully coupled geomechanical model can simulate multiphase flow and any associated poromechanical effects within the CO 2 storage site and in the surrounding formations. Such a large-scale, long-term, multi-physics simulation model is useful in many ways: it can guide operational decisions for CO 2 injection, assess the containment potential and risks of a site, and analyze the wellbore stability and integrity during and after CO 2 injection.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

A systematic decision-making methodology to formalize the selection of degree of realism in screening analysis of probabilistic risk assessment

In the nuclear power domain, Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is used to inform decision-making for Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Recently, there has been an increase in the utilization of modeling and simulation (M&S) to support the estimation of PRA inputs. Risk analysts should carefully select the PRA items that require M&S and their degree of realism (DoR) with consideration of the required resources. To support this selection, this article formulates a systematic decision-making approach for the DoR selection. The DoR selection is made based on two predictive decision-making attributes: the predicted differences in safety risk estimate (ΔSaRi) and the cost of analysis (ΔCAN). This research also develops and quantifies causal models to estimate ΔSaRi and ΔCAN. The causal model-based prediction of ΔSaRi and ΔCAN helps reduce the trial-and-error nature of the DoR selection in the PRA screening analysis and provides insights for DoR selection and the gradual refinements of PRA realism. This approach is demonstrated for a case study on fire PRA of NPPs, where an adequate DoR is selected from two fire models: an engineering correlation and a zone model.

Alkhatib, Sari [Department of Nuclear, Plasma, and↗

DOE OSTI2026

Differential Privacy in Grid Kitchen: Implementation & Software Documentation

Sharing of power grid feeder models faces significant challenges due to the potential risk of exposing sensitive operational information. Traditional anonymization techniques have shown notable limitations in other sensitive domains, as evidenced by documented re-identification attacks that combine supposedly anonymized datasets with auxiliary information, raising concerns that similar vulnerabilities could affect power grid data. Consequently, there is a pressing need for a more rigorous privacy protection strategy that not only delivers formal mathematical guarantees but also preserves the analytical value of the shared models. To address this challenge, we have enhanced the Grid Kitchen framework by implementing differential privacy mechanisms within the distribution model dehydration pipeline. This implementation carefully calibrates and applies noise to sensitive attributes in feeder models according to configurable privacy levels—low, moderate, and high—each offering different balances between data utility and privacy protection. Our approach uses established noise functions (Gaussian for continuous data and Discrete Laplace for integer values) with parameters carefully calibrated so that the impact of individual data points is effectively masked in the final output. The integration leverages our Noise Catalog, which we developed to categorize feeder model properties by component type, data type, and sensitivity. This catalog guides the application of appropriate noise functions and privacy parameters ($\varepsilon$ and $\delta$) to each attribute, ensuring consistent privacy protection across the model while maintaining its structural integrity and analytical usefulness. This implementation also includes evaluation tools that allow model owners to assess the impact of privacy-preserving transformations before sharing data with external parties. This report provides documentation for the differential privacy capabilities added to the Grid Kitchen project. It includes a primer on differential privacy concepts and their importance in modern data sharing, details the architecture of our implementation, explains the privacy modes and parameter configurations, and offers practical guidance on using the code for applying differential privacy to grid feeder models. Through examples and code snippets, we demonstrate the effective application of these privacy-enhancing technologies, enabling utility operators and researchers to confidently share grid data while protecting sensitive information.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Future climate doubles the risk of hydraulic failure in a wet tropical forest

Summary Future climate presents conflicting implications for forest biomass. We evaluate how plant hydraulic traits, elevated CO 2 levels, warming, and changes in precipitation affect forest primary productivity, evapotranspiration, and the risk of hydraulic failure. We used a dynamic vegetation model with plant hydrodynamics (FATES‐HYDRO) to simulate the stand‐level responses to future climate changes in a wet tropical forest in Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We calibrated the model by selecting plant trait assemblages that performed well against observations. These assemblages were run with temperature and precipitation changes for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (2086–2100: SSP2‐45, SSP5‐85) and two CO 2 levels (contemporary, anticipated). The risk of hydraulic failure is projected to increase from a contemporary rate of 5.7% to 10.1–11.3% under future climate scenarios, and, crucially, elevated CO 2 provided only slight amelioration. By contrast, elevated CO 2 mitigated GPP reductions. We attribute a greater variation in hydraulic failure risk to trait assemblages than to either CO 2 or climate. Our results project forests with both faster growth (through productivity increases) and higher mortality rates (through increasing rates of hydraulic failure) in the neo‐tropics accompanied by certain trait plant assemblages becoming nonviable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

First-of-a-Kind Risk-Informed Digital Twin for Operational Decision Making

A digital twin (DT) is a digital model or a collection of models of a physical entity. DTs in the nuclear arena can be used from plant design through decommissioning. Decisions are typically a priori or made offline. Risk-informed decision making is identifying what can go wrong, its frequency, and the consequences of its failure. Ideally risk-informed decision making reflects the current state of the plant and provides a decision in real time. Traditionally, probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) evaluate the failures of safety systems, the risk of core damage, and the offsite dose as the consequence. However, this DT evaluates the decisions on the control side rather than the protection side. It uses the same risk methods to probabilistically inform the decision-making process but in a different way. Rather than evaluating the risk of core damage, this DT evaluates the likelihood of avoiding a trip set point while maintaining plant safety. Performance-based assessments are identified via its probabilistic evaluation of operational alternatives based on system status. Because the purpose of the control system is to maintain system variables within prescribed operating ranges, upsets or challenges that can exceed a trip set point resulting in a plant transient and a challenge to plant mitigating systems based on actual plant conditions, are evaluated to safely maintain the plant within the operating ranges. The probabilistic portion of the model is autonomously and automatically adjusted, and the metric of interest (i.e. likelihood of avoiding a trip set point) is recalculated. The digital representation of the physical system (i.e. the DT) performs a deterministic performance–based assessment of the probabilistically identified alternatives identified to validate the probabilistic assessment. A decision-making algorithm selects the appropriate option based on the probabilistic and deterministic assessments and transmits a control signal to a component(s) to initiate a corrective action or informs an operator of its decision.

digital twin↗

DOE OSTI2025

Tactical Analysis for Calculating Contextual Risk at Boundaries: Summary of Laboratory Directed Research & Development Effort

The Tactical Analysis for Calculating Contextual Risk at Boundaries (TACCRAB) tool is an innovative digital twin (DT) platform and automated risk algorithm designed to transform operational decision-making in structured screening environments, with an initial focus on Southern Border Land Ports of Entry (POEs). The invention provides integration points for advanced artificial intelligence, predictive modeling, and real-time data analysis to produce a comprehensive risk management tool that enables proactive, data-informed security strategies. The core inventive features of TACCRAB center on its unique risk algorithm, which dynamically calculates contextual risk by synthesizing historical data, near real-time streaming data from the checkpoints themselves, and AI-generated predictions. Unlike traditional risk assessment methods, TACCRAB utilizes a DT to provide comprehensive operational insights, allowing stakeholders to visualize, simulate, and optimize checkpoint configurations with unprecedented speed and contextual awareness. TACCRAB's key innovation lies in its ability to combine multiple complex inputs - including technology detection probabilities, resource availability, screening pathway characteristics, and threat actor behavioral patterns - into a unified risk calculation and update these inputs based on changing operational and environmental conditions. By leveraging a DT that continuously updates and learns from linked data, TACCRAB can suggest adaptive mitigation strategies that minimize risk while maintaining operational efficiency. Particularly novel is the platform's approach to decision support, which goes beyond static risk assessment. The DT provides dynamic metrics such as wait times, resource allocation effectiveness, and potential emerging threat scenarios, enabling users to view sophisticated, relevant what-if simulations and optimize checkpoint operations in near real-time. The system's architecture allows for generalized application across different screening environments, such as secure facilities, ports of entry, and soft targets, making it a versatile tool for security and operational management. The invention distinguishes itself through its comprehensive integration of predictive modeling, AI-driven pattern discovery, and user-friendly interface design. By combining these elements, TACCRAB transforms complex risk data into actionable insights, supporting decision-makers at various organizational levels - from booth agents making split-second screening decisions to checkpoint managers optimizing the day's resource allocation to strategic planners managing long-term investments.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2024

wa-hls4ml: A GNN Surrogate Model for hls4ml

Recent advancements in use of machine learning techniques on field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) have allowed for implementation of embedded neural networks with extremely low latency. This is invaluable for particle detectors at the Large Hadron Collider, where latency and used area must be strictly bounded. The hls4ml framework is a procedure for converting from trained machine learning model software, to a synthesis result that can be used on an FPGA. However, running the pipeline is a time-consuming procedure, and there is a strong risk of failure. In particular, it is possible that the model is unable to be converted into a synthesis result, or that the resource consumption of the model will exceed the resources of the target FPGA. To aid with this development, we introduce wa-hls4ml, a surrogate model which uses a graph neural network to emulate the structure of the source models. The goal is to estimate the chance of success and resource consumption of an arbitrary model when passed through the hls4ml procedure, without the time consumption of actually running the pipeline.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Using Machine Learning to Understand Electric and Hybrid Vehicles Ownership in Burdened and Nonburdened Communities

Transitioning to electric and hybrid vehicles (EHVs) for all communities is a pivotal step toward sustainable transportation and environmental conservation. This paper aims to understand the adoption of EHVs, focusing on burdened communities (BCs) in the United States. The EHV ownership-based analysis combines two datasets—behavioral data from the Puget Sound Regional Travel Survey integrated with BCs (Justice40) data covering transportation insecurity, environmental burden, social vulnerability, health vulnerability, and climate and disaster risk burden. After creating this unique database, descriptive analysis and modeling are used to analyze the data and predict EHV ownership in the future. Specifically, we use a new method that combines particle swarm optimization (PSO) with a stacking model named PSO-Stacking, which incorporates heterogeneous base learners of machine learning and deep learning. PSO applies a customized objective function to select the optimal hyperparameters for heterogeneous learners within the stacking model, effectively addressing challenges such as multicollinearity, data imbalance, nonlinearity, and overfitting. The proposed solution covers more accurate results than standard benchmark models for EHV ownership in BCs and non-BCs. In addition, the results of the PSO-Stacking method are explained using the local interpretable model-agnostic explanations technique. Results show a negative correlation between the BCs indicators, that is, higher transportation insecurity associated with lower EHV ownership. Furthermore, BCs have higher future climate risk scores, diesel particulate matter levels, and PM2.5 in the air than non-BCs because of higher conventional vehicle ownership. These communities are at higher risk and can benefit from electrification, EV infrastructure, and EV policies to address environmental challenges.

Aslam, Zeeshan [ORNL]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning-based bias-corrected future projections of ozone concentrations from a chemistry-climate model

Reliable projection of future near-surface ozone is crucial for air quality management and health risk assessment. However, potential biases in spatial distribution, magnitude and trends in ozone concentrations simulated by global chemistry-climate models limit their applicability in regional-scale evaluations. In this study, LightGBM, a machine learning (ML) algorithm is applied to correct biases in CESM2-simulated ozone concentrations over China, the United States and Europe and calibrate future ozone projections under two diverse Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios from 2020 to 2060. The ML-based correction significantly improves the spatial distribution and reduces the model bias by 40%–60%. It also reverses the potentially incorrect trend of ozone change under SSP1-2.6 in eastern China. When applying ML-based bias correction to CESM2 future projections, warm season mean ozone concentrations decrease across China, the United States, and Europe by –13.5, –17.9, and –13.7 µg/m³, respectively, between 2020 and 2060 in SSP1-2.6, while they increase by 9.4, 2.0, and 5.2 µg/m³ in SSP5-8.5. Decomposition analysis show that changes in anthropogenic emissions dominate future ozone changes in both scenarios, while strong climate penalty from ozone changes occurs in polluted eastern China and climate benefit is found in western China, the United States and Europe under SSP5-8.5. These findings demonstrate the value of combining ML with chemistry-climate models to produce more accurate air quality projections, thereby informing more effective and region-specific environmental protection strategies.

Chemistry Model↗

DOE OSTI2026

Guideline for Characterizing and Evaluating a Candidate Project Site for Solar Thermal Applications

This document presents a structured procedure for characterizing and evaluating candidate project sites for concentrating solar power (CSP) and solar heat for industrial processes (SHIP) applications. The objective is to provide project developers, researchers, and other stakeholders with a consistent, technology-agnostic framework for early-stage site assessment, enabling informed decision-making prior to significant investment in project development. Site selection is a critical factor in project success or failure for both CSP and SHIP projects. Key factors such as solar resource availability, land characteristics, environmental and regulatory constraints, infrastructure availability, and community context are determined by the choice of project site and can materially impact project performance, cost, schedule, and overall viability. This procedure is designed to systematically evaluate these factors, identify potential fatal flaws, and prioritize the most favorable candidate sites for further development. The process begins with rapid screening-level evaluation, using publicly available data to assess solar resource, land availability and suitability, zoning and land-use compatibility, and exclusion zones such as protected lands or sensitive habitats. Sites that meet the minimum screening criteria advance to a more detailed characterization. Subsequent sections of this report provide guidance for a next-level assessment of the most important technical and environmental parameters, including: 1) Solar resource quality, variability, and uncertainty using multiyear datasets and, where appropriate, on-site measurement campaigns; 2) Meteorological conditions such as wind, temperature, extreme weather events, and soiling impacts; 3) Land characteristics including slope, shading, and geotechnical conditions; and 4) Environmental and regulatory considerations, including permitting processes, endangered species, cultural resources, and visual impacts. The procedure also addresses infrastructure and integration considerations, including: 1) Grid interconnection requirements for CSP power generation projects; 2) Electrical and operational integration for SHIP facilities; 3) Water availability, quality, and permitting constraints, which are particularly critical for CSP in arid regions; and 4) Site access, construction logistics, and availability of workforce and supporting services. Recognizing the importance of social and economic context, the procedure includes evaluation of community engagement factors, such as stakeholder sentiment, proximity to sensitive visual receptors, workforce development opportunities, and local economic incentives. The outputs of these assessments are synthesized in a cost and risk evaluation, translating site characteristics into expected impacts on capital cost, operating cost, schedule, and technical risk. This is complemented by screening-level performance modeling, including 8760 simulations and long-term projections, to quantify expected energy or thermal output, assess variability thereof, and support comparison between candidate sites. Finally, the procedure provides high-level guidance on a structured go/no-go decision framework, categorizing sites based on identified risks and constraints, and outlining a clear path forward to feasibility studies and front-end engineering design for viable projects. By standardizing the site characterization process across both CSP and SHIP applications, this guideline aims to: 1) Improve consistency and transparency in early-stage project evaluation; 2) Reduce development risk and avoid investment in nonviable project sites; 3) Support collaboration between developers, researchers, and public agencies; and 4) Accelerate successful deployment of concentrating solar technologies for both power generation and industrial process heat.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Privacy-Preserving Cyber Threat Intelligence Sharing System

Cyber Threat Intelligence (CTI) is a key resource for developing defensive strategies against potential cyber adversaries. Entities typically access CTI through open-source platforms, national agencies, or specialized commercial services. However, the bi-directional exchange of CTI is hindered by organizational trust boundaries, which complicate the sharing processes between entities and CTI providers. Centralized CTI services benefit from receiving suspicious cyber observables such as IP addresses, domain names, and email addresses from various entities. The aggregation allows for the correlation of widespread adversarial activities to enhance the alert and response mechanisms across the network of involved parties. Despite these benefits, openly sharing such observables incurs potential legal, regulatory, and reputational risks for the disclosing entities.This paper introduces a system designed to facilitate the secure exchange of cyber observables across trust boundaries without compromising the anonymity of the sharing entities. Here, we propose an architecture that leverages common web protocols alongside zero-knowledge proofs to authenticate members while maintaining anonymity. Additionally, we outline a privacy model tailored for STIX (Structured Threat Information eXpression) cyber observables to minimize the risk of inadvertently disclosing private information. Through our threat models, we assess the privacy implications of our proposed system and demonstrate its potential to enhance collaborative cyber defense efforts without exposing entities to undue risk.

BBS+ Signatures↗

DOE OSTI2024

Alfalfa Virtual Building Service: Software Engineering Best Practices Applied to Runtime Interaction with Building Energy Models

Buildings are active participants in increasingly complex energy systems. Building Energy Modeling (BEM) has a key role to play in planning and de-risking an equitable energy transition, with BEM-backed "virtual buildings" critical path for diverse applications that include workforce training tools, Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) experimentation to study equipment performance under a range of conditions, Control-Hardware-in-the-Loop (CHIL) experimentation to de-risk commercial control implementations at equipment through grid orchestration levels, and integration of dynamic load profiles into grid modeling tools for energy system experimentation at the urban scale. Modeling requirements vary across these applications, but many software engineering tasks do not. The Alfalfa Virtual Building Service (AVBS, see https://github.com/NREL/alfalfa/wiki) is an open-source web service that solves these common tasks robustly in one place, providing a foundational platform for power users to bootstrap their own applications. AVBS abstracts the specifics of runtime interaction with OpenStudio, Modelica, and Spawn of EnergyPlus models behind a unified REST API. Additionally, AVBS provides resources for cloud deployment and scaling to 100s of parallel simulations, a growing library of modular Operational Technology (OT) integrations for emulation of real-world interfaces, and scripts to automate the population of communities of virtual buildings from URBANopt, ResStock and ComStock.

building automation↗

DOE OSTI2026

Stochastic fracture generation and thermo-hydro-mechanical modeling in an equivalent continuum framework for enhanced geothermal systems

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) involve fracturing low permeability material to establish well connectivity and then injecting and circulating fluid into the fractured subsurface for geothermal power production. Changes in fracture aperture from contraction of the cooling matrix rock may alter network connectivity and risk thermal short-circuiting. Thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) models are a useful tool to study these processes. However, as fracture networks are complex, and data may be limited, fracture networks in THM models are often stochastically generated. Given reliance on stochastic fracture networks and THM modeling to represent the subsurface and assess productivity of EGS, increased understanding of the influence of such statistically derived fracture networks on flow and heat transport in THM models is needed. Here, a new fracture process model is developed in the reactive transport code PFLOTRAN to stochastically generate fracture families and simulate changes in fracture aperture over time due to temperature changes of the rock matrix. Sixty-four different fracture networks ranging from well to poorly-connected, are modeled in PFLOTRAN with and without mechanical processes (THM vs TH). Results indicate that for well-connected fracture networks, thermal short-circuiting is less of a concern due to the abundance of available alternative flowpaths. For poorly-connected fracture networks, inclusion of mechanical processes showed steep thermal drawdown coincident with increase in fracture aperture along developing colder flowpaths, demonstrating the risk of thermal short-circuiting. Simulations with additional, larger fractures engineered to establish connectivity in a poorly-fractured subsurface, indicate that while stochastic variation of fracture orientation of the background network had limited influence, such variation in the engineered fractures significantly affected flow and heat transport.

Discrete fracture networks (DFN)↗

DOE OSTI2025

High-Burnup BWR LOCA Burst Analysis Using High-Fidelity Multiphysics Simulations

The US nuclear industry is looking to improve on the operating economics of the current fleet of light-water reactors (LWRs). One way of achieving this is by operating fuel to higher burnup. In pressurized water reactors (PWRs), relaxing the current burnup limit will allow for cycle length extensions and power uprates; in boiling water reactors (BWRs) it may allow for improved fuel utilization and reduced feed assemblies, as well as more efficient power uprates and increased capacity factors that will support the Administration’s Executive Order to facilitate 5 GW of power uprates at existing nuclear facilities. However, one of the key limitations to operating fuel to higher burnup is the risk of fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD). Recognizing the high interest in extending burnup limits, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has issued Draft Regulatory Guide DG-1434, which defines an approach that would be acceptable to the NRC for addressing FFRD risk. The approach defined will require better understanding of the phenomena leading to FFRD as well as best-estimate simulation methods to understand FFRD risk in high-burnup cores. The Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program is supporting the FFRD industry challenge problem through development of state-of-the-art, high-fidelity modeling and simulation LWR analysis capabilities; namely, the BISON fuel performance code and the VERA core simulator software. These tools, along with the US NRC TRACE system analysis code, have been utilized for analysis of FFRD risk in both PWR and BWR cores in recent years. The work documented in this report addresses the lack of high-fidelity research for BWRs and builds on a previous activity where the framework has been applied to Cycles 16 through 18 of Limerick Unit 1, a BWR/4, with introduction of 8 high-burnup lead use assemblies (HBLUAs) that were representative of the 8 HBLUAs loaded into Limerick Unit 2 in 2021. VERA was used in this previous activity to model rod-by-rod depletion in these cycles, and its solution was used to initialize a TRACE simulation of a large-break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) at the end of Cycle 18. In the work documented in this report, the TRACE model was improved by refining the core mesh and utilizing a new feature that allows for capturing the full 3D VERA power distribution in the model. This allows for a more detailed solution for setting BISON boundary conditions. Furthermore, the solutions from VERA and TRACE were used to set up and perform BISON simulations of about 1,000 rods sampled from the core, including all burnup levels. Utilizing two cladding burst models, it was shown that no fuel rods were predicted to burst during the postulated LBLOCA transient. Additionally, a sensitivity study was performed by artificially increasing linear heat rate during the postulated LBLOCA to identify parameters that correlate with rod burst susceptibility. Burnup, fission gas release, and hoop strain were all found to be positively correlated with rod burst susceptibility. Small-break loss-of-coolant accident (SBLOCA) analyses were also performed; these analyses predicted cladding temperature increases that were bounded by the LBLOCA cladding temperatures for all small break sizes studied for this plant. However, future refinements to the plant response assumptions during the SBLOCA could impact the predicted cladding response. Finally, a benchmark study was performed between CTF and TRACE for LOCA conditions to better qualify CTF for BWR LOCA modeling.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

MSD CoP Webinar: Modeling the Operations of Reservoir Systems with LLMs and Inverse Reinforcement Learning

Context: This panel featured three presentations centered on the common theme of applying LLMs and inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) to capture the complex human-environment interactions that are central to the operation of reservoir systems. Dr. Wyatt Arnold will kick off the webinar with a talk on how analyzing LLM chain-of-thought reasoning reveals sophisticated quantitative justification and risk awareness, showing promise as a bridge between quantitative models and value-driven water management decisions. Next, Dr. Matteo Giuliani will build on this with a discussion demonstrating that AI- and IRL-driven approaches can infer the trade-offs between flood control and water supply using historical observations. Finally, Dr. Rohan Singh Wilkho will close the webinar with a talk establishing IRL as a generalizable diagnostic tool for decoding decision-making in managed hydrologic and human-infrastructure systems. Across the three presentations, the application of LLMs and IRL opens new possibilities for the development of adaptive, transparent, and human-aware models supporting water management in an increasingly uncertain future. Presenters: Wyatt Arnold (Politecnico di Milano); Matteo Giuliani (Politecnico di Milano); Rohan Singh Wilkho (Cornell University) Moderator: Patrick M. Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team); Stefano Galelli (MSD CoP AI Working Group Co-Chair); David Gold (MSD CoP AI Working Group Co-Chair) This webinar was held on: June 23rd, 2026 from 12-1 PM EST.

Arnold, Wyatt [Politecnico di Milano]↗