Search NASASearch

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Risk algorithm”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 217 records · Page 12

A scoping study of far-SOL main-wall protection limiters for steady-state operation of compact pilot plant tokamaks

We present a novel method for handling steady-state heat fluxes incident on the main wall of pilot plant-scale magnetic fusion devices, based on the utilization of protection limiters in the far scrape-off layer (SOL). This method helps avoid large plasma-wall gaps, without excessively compromising blanket performance. We present an optimization algorithm for determining the appropriate size and scale of these protection limiters given (1) probability distributions of SOL plasma parameters and (2) assumed risk tolerance. As part of this optimization, we have developed an analytic description of parallel heat fluxes across limiter shadows, and an objective cost function (the ‘Far-SOL Marginal Cost’) to quantify the impact that different main-wall thermal management design choices have on reactor capital cost. Applying the model to a midscale fusion pilot plant concept shows that making use of far-SOL protection limiters can reduce capital costs on the order of $500 M, relative to naively increasing the plasma-wall gap. Our analysis demonstrates that the far-SOL power decay length is the highest-leverage plasma assumption for thermal loading of the first wall, and the primary cost driver for main wall thermal management. The relative cost efficiency of protection limiters increases as assumptions on the far-SOL heat flux become more pessimistic. The concepts described in this paper motivate the further development of far-SOL protection limiters as part of larger efforts to design economical core-edge-wall compatible solutions for a fusion pilot plant.

Design under uncertainty

Provable bounds for noise-free expectation values computed from noisy samples

Quantum computing has emerged as a powerful computational paradigm capable of solving problems beyond the reach of classical computers. However, today’s quantum computers are noisy, posing challenges to obtaining accurate results. Here, we explore the impact of noise on quantum computing, focusing on the challenges in sampling bit strings from noisy quantum computers and the implications for optimization and machine learning. We formally quantify the sampling overhead to extract good samples from noisy quantum computers and relate it to the layer fidelity, a metric to determine the performance of noisy quantum processors. Further, we show how this allows us to use the conditional value at risk of noisy samples to determine provable bounds on noise-free expectation values. We discuss how to leverage these bounds for different algorithms and demonstrate our findings through experiments on real quantum computers involving up to 127 qubits. The results show strong alignment with theoretical predictions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Uncertainty Analysis of Air Radiation for Lunar Return Shock Layers

By leveraging a new uncertainty markup technique, two risk analysis methods are used to compute the uncertainty of lunar-return shock layer radiation predicted by the High temperature Aerothermodynamic Radiation Algorithm (HARA). The effects of epistemic uncertainty, or uncertainty due to a lack of knowledge, is considered for the following modeling parameters: atomic line oscillator strengths, atomic line Stark broadening widths, atomic photoionization cross sections, negative ion photodetachment cross sections, molecular bands oscillator strengths, and electron impact excitation rates. First, a simplified shock layer problem consisting of two constant-property equilibrium layers is considered. The results of this simplified problem show that the atomic nitrogen oscillator strengths and Stark broadening widths in both the vacuum ultraviolet and infrared spectral regions, along with the negative ion continuum, are the dominant uncertainty contributors. Next, three variable property stagnation-line shock layer cases are analyzed: a typical lunar return case and two Fire II cases. For the near-equilibrium lunar return and Fire 1643-second cases, the resulting uncertainties are very similar to the simplified case. Conversely, the relatively nonequilibrium 1636-second case shows significantly larger influence from electron impact excitation rates of both atoms and molecules. For all cases, the total uncertainty in radiative heat flux to the wall due to epistemic uncertainty in modeling parameters is 30% as opposed to the erroneously-small uncertainty levels (plus or minus 6%) found when treating model parameter uncertainties as aleatory (due to chance) instead of epistemic (due to lack of knowledge).

Kleb, Bil

Extension of HCDstruct for Transonic Aeroservoelastic Analysis of Unconventional Aircraft Concepts

A substantial effort has been made to implement an enhanced aerodynamic modeling capability in the Higher-fidelity Conceptual Design and structural optimization tool. This additional capability is needed for a rapid, physics-based method of modeling advanced aircraft concepts at risk of structural failure due to dynamic aeroelastic instabilities. To adequately predict these instabilities, in particular for transonic applications, a generalized aerodynamic matching algorithm was implemented to correct the doublet-lattice model available in Nastran using solution data from a priori computational fluid dynamics anal- ysis. This new capability is demonstrated for two tube-and-wing aircraft configurations, including a Boeing 737-200 for implementation validation and the NASA D8 as a first use case. Results validate the current implementation of the aerodynamic matching utility and demonstrate the importance of using such a method for aircraft configurations featuring fuselage-wing aerodynamic interaction.

Quinlan, Jesse R.

Improving Computational Efficiency of Prognostics Algorithms in Resource-Constrained Settings

In engineering and aerospace applications, it is vital to operational success to have insight into the expected performance and health of physical systems. The field of prognostics and health management provides quantitative methods for monitoring, predicting, and managing system health. Prognostics algorithms can be employed to assess the current state of a system, propagate the system throughout time, and predict potential anomalies or failures that may occur. While they can provide accurate prediction results, effective prognostics algorithms can be challenging to use in resource-constrained settings due to computational limitations and high computational latency, leading to obsolete predictions. Thus, computationally efficient and accurate algorithms are necessary for future remaining useful life predictions. In this work, we implement new algorithmic approaches for prediction, quantitatively compare them via a battery degradation use-case, and provide recommendations of potential improvements to a prognostics framework. One approach to prediction is through sampling, whereby the current state of a physical system is sampled many times and each sample is propagated forward until failure is reached, resulting in a distribution of failure values. To improve the efficiency of this process, we implemented five new algorithmic approaches to prediction, including three distinct sampling methods (standard Monte Carlo, Quasi-Monte Carlo, and Latin Hypercube Sampling), a variable time step algorithm, and a variable sample size algorithm. To compare the algorithms, we employ a variety of metrics designed specifically to analyze both computational efficiency and model accuracy. Our metrics include accuracy to compare the average predicted value to ground truth, mean absolute deviation to illustrate dispersion, specific percentile error to describe accuracy within a user-defined risk tolerance, and code run-time. To quantitatively analyze our results, we employ a use-case of degradation of a Lithium-ion battery. We use an electrochemistry-based model to describe the current health state of the battery, and implement our prediction algorithms to propagate forward in time until end-of-discharge (EOD) is reached. Notably, through this work it was found that none of our sampling approaches had a significant impact on computational efficiency or model accuracy in predicting EOD of the battery. We find that while the sampling methods are unique, the distributions they generate are similar, ultimately producing final predictions that are nearly identical. In exploring the effect of the time step within the prediction algorithm, we found that prediction accuracy was highly dependent on the time step used, and that implementing a variable time step within a particular prediction may provide an increase in computational efficiency while also maintaining prediction accuracy. Finally, implementing a variable sample size also affected prediction, and our results show that tuning both the magnitude and timing of the sample size adjustment can result in improved computation speed and maintained prediction accuracy. Taken together, our findings highlight the challenge of performing prognostics in resource-constrained settings, and illustrate the potential of developing new prediction algorithms to improve computational efficiency.

prognostics

Planning the FUSE Mission Using the SOVA Algorithm

Three documents discuss the Sustainable Objective Valuation and Attainability (SOVA) algorithm and software as used to plan tasks (principally, scientific observations and associated maneuvers) for the Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE) satellite. SOVA is a means of managing risk in a complex system, based on a concept of computing the expected return value of a candidate ordered set of tasks as a product of pre-assigned task values and assessments of attainability made against qualitatively defined strategic objectives. For the FUSE mission, SOVA autonomously assembles a week-long schedule of target observations and associated maneuvers so as to maximize the expected scientific return value while keeping the satellite stable, managing the angular momentum of spacecraft attitude- control reaction wheels, and striving for other strategic objectives. A six-degree-of-freedom model of the spacecraft is used in simulating the tasks, and the attainability of a task is calculated at each step by use of strategic objectives as defined by use of fuzzy inference systems. SOVA utilizes a variant of a graph-search algorithm known as the A* search algorithm to assemble the tasks into a week-long target schedule, using the expected scientific return value to guide the search.

Lanzi, James

Learning linear optical circuits with coherent states

We analyze the energy and training data requirements for supervised learning of an M-mode linear optical circuit by minimizing an empirical risk defined solely from the action of the circuit on coherent states. When the linear optical circuit acts non-trivially only on k < M unknown modes (i.e. a linear optical k-junta), we provide an energy-efficient, adaptive algorithm that identifies the junta set and learns the circuit. We compare two schemes for allocating a total energy, E, to the learning algorithm. In the first scheme, each of the T random training coherent states has energy E/T. In the second scheme, a single random MT-mode coherent state with energy E is partitioned into T training coherent states. The latter scheme exhibits a polynomial advantage in training data size sufficient for convergence of the empirical risk to the full risk due to concentration of measure on the $(2MT-1)$-sphere. Specifically, generalization bounds for both schemes are proven, which indicate that for ε-approximation of the full risk by the empirical risk with high probability, $O(E^{2/3}M^{2/3}/\epsilon^{2/3})$ training states are sufficient for the first scheme and $O(E^{1/3}M^{1/3}/\epsilon^{2/3})$ training states are sufficient for the second scheme.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC

Prediction of coronary artery disease in patients undergoing operations for mitral valve degeneration

OBJECTIVES: We sought to develop and validate a model that estimates the risk of obstructive coronary artery disease in patients undergoing operations for mitral valve degeneration and to demonstrate its potential clinical utility. METHODS: A total of 722 patients (67% men; age, 61 +/- 12 years) without a history of myocardial infarction, ischemic electrocardiographic changes, or angina who underwent routine coronary angiography before mitral valve prolapse operations between 1989 and 1996 were analyzed. A bootstrap-validated logistic regression model on the basis of clinical risk factors was developed to identify low-risk (< or =5%) patients. Obstructive coronary atherosclerosis was defined as 50% or more luminal narrowing in one or more major epicardial vessels, as determined by means of coronary angiography. RESULTS: One hundred thirty-nine (19%) patients had obstructive coronary atherosclerosis. Independent predictors of coronary artery disease include age, male sex, hypertension, diabetes mellitus,and hyperlipidemia. Two hundred twenty patients were designated as low risk according to the logistic model. Of these patients, only 3 (1.3%) had single-vessel disease, and none had multivessel disease. The model showed good discrimination, with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.84. Cost analysis indicated that application of this model could safely eliminate 30% of coronary angiograms, corresponding to cost savings of $430,000 per 1000 patients without missing any case of high-risk coronary artery disease. CONCLUSION: A model with standard clinical predictors can reliably estimate the prevalence of obstructive coronary atherosclerosis in patients undergoing mitral valve prolapse operations. This model can identify low-risk patients in whom routine preoperative angiography may be safely avoided.

Non-NASA Center

Fracture Network Prediction Using Physics-based Machine Learning Algorithms

In recent years, systematic CO2 injection into geological reservoirs across the U.S. has gained traction as a strategy to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. This approach necessitates precise monitoring to ensure secure containment, minimize risks, and optimize storage management. Our study leverages machine learning (ML) techniques to advance the understanding of CO2 injection processes, focusing on the Illinois Basin. Over a three-year injection period, we analyzed microseismic data, identifying 19 temporal intervals with significant bottom-hole pressure changes. By partitioning microseismic events into these intervals and estimating b-values, we revealed over 100 clusters of events related to fracture initiation or reactivation. Advanced spatial analysis highlighted horizontally-oriented fractures along the NNW-SSE axis. This quantification of fracture networks informs dynamic injection scheduling, work-over strategies, and risk assessments, enhancing carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) operations. Additionally, our methodology offers valuable insights for oil and gas operations and geothermal development, supporting fracture-based monitoring and risk mitigation.

Kumar, Abhash

Probabilistic structural analysis methodology and applications to advanced space propulsion system components

The goal of the reported work is to develop and apply new technology that will enable the designer to efficiently and accurately account for each of the design sources of uncertainty as it might affect structural reliability and risk assessment. The paper discusses the development of the Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) finite element code and its supporting reliability algorithms. The NESSUS code and the elements of the solution strategy are outlined and applications are made to several propulsion system components.

Cruse, T. A.

NASA Tech Briefs, March 2010

Topics covered include: Software Tool Integrating Data Flow Diagrams and Petri Nets; Adaptive Nulling for Interferometric Detection of Planets; Reducing the Volume of NASA Earth-Science Data; Reception of Multiple Telemetry Signals via One Dish Antenna; Space-Qualified Traveling-Wave Tube; Smart Power Supply for Battery-Powered Systems; Parallel Processing of Broad-Band PPM Signals; Inexpensive Implementation of Many Strain Gauges; Constant-Differential-Pressure Two-Fluid Accumulator; Inflatable Tubular Structures Rigidized with Foams; Power Generator with Thermo-Differential Modules; Mechanical Extraction of Power From Ocean Currents and Tides; Nitrous Oxide/Paraffin Hybrid Rocket Engines; Optimized Li-Ion Electrolytes Containing Fluorinated Ester Co-Solvents; Probabilistic Multi-Factor Interaction Model for Complex Material Behavior; Foldable Instrumented Bits for Ultrasonic/Sonic Penetrators; Compact Rare Earth Emitter Hollow Cathode; High-Precision Shape Control of In-Space Deployable Large Membrane/Thin-Shell Reflectors; Rapid Active Sampling Package; Miniature Lightweight Ion Pump; Cryogenic Transport of High-Pressure-System Recharge Gas; Water-Vapor Raman Lidar System Reaches Higher Altitude; Compact Ku-Band T/R Module for High-Resolution Radar Imaging of Cold Land Processes; Wide-Field-of-View, High-Resolution, Stereoscopic Imager; Electrical Capacitance Volume Tomography with High-Contrast Dielectrics; Wavefront Control and Image Restoration with Less Computing; Polarization Imaging Apparatus; Stereoscopic Machine-Vision System Using Projected Circles; Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool; Performance Bounds on Two Concatenated, Interleaved Codes; Parameterizing Coefficients of a POD-Based Dynamical System; Confidence-Based Feature Acquisition; Algorithm for Lossless Compression of Calibrated Hyperspectral Imagery; Universal Decoder for PPM of any Order; Algorithm for Stabilizing a POD-Based Dynamical System; Mission Reliability Estimation for Repairable Robot Teams; Processing AIRS Scientific Data Through Level 3; Web-Based Requesting and Scheduling Use of Facilities; AutoGen Version 5.0; Time-Tag Generation Script; PPM Receiver Implemented in Software; Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer Product File Readers; Reporting Differences Between Spacecraft Sequence Files; Coordinating "Execute" Data for ISS and Space Shuttle; Database for Safety-Oriented Tracking of Chemicals; Apparatus for Cold, Pressurized Biogeochemical Experiments; Growing B Lymphocytes in a Three-Dimensional Culture System; Tissue-like 3D Assemblies of Human Broncho-Epithelial Cells; Isolation of Resistance-Bearing Microorganisms; Oscillating Cell Culture Bioreactor; and Liquid Cooling/Warming Garment.

Source record

Separation Assurance and Collision Avoidance

Objective SACA-1: Determine the level of safety provided by tactical separation assurance safety monitoring systems for UAS missions. a) Rationale: Continuous mission-risk monitoring can provide equivalent levels of safety for UAS operations possibly reducing the burden on other safety systems. b) Approach: Utilize and adapt algorithms and approaches developed for the NextGen Airspace Systems Program for UAS applications.

Lauderdale, Todd

Data Preservation, Information Preservation, and Lifecyle of Information Management at NASA GES DISC

Data lifecycle management awareness is common today; planners are more likely to consider lifecycle issues at mission start. NASA remote sensing missions are typically subject to life cycle management plans of the Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC), and NASA invests in these national centers for the long-term safeguarding and benefit of future generations. As stewards of older missions, it is incumbent upon us to ensure that a comprehensive enough set of information is being preserved to prevent the risk for information loss. This risk is greater when the original data experts have moved on or are no longer available. Preservation of items like documentation related to processing algorithms, pre-flight calibration data, or input-output configuration parameters used in product generation, are examples of digital artifacts that are sometimes not fully preserved. This is the grey area of information preservation; the importance of these items is not always clear and requires careful consideration. Missing important metadata about intermediate steps used to derive a product could lead to serious challenges in the reproducibility of results or conclusions. Organizations are rapidly recognizing that the focus of life-cycle preservation needs to be enlarged from the strict raw data to the more encompassing arena of information lifecycle management. By understanding what constitutes information, and the complexities involved, we are better equipped to deliver longer lasting value about the original data and derived knowledge (information) from them. The NASA Earth Science Data Preservation Content Specification is an attempt to define the content necessary for long-term preservation. It requires new lifecycle infrastructure approach along with content repositories to accommodate artifacts other than just raw data. The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) setup an open-source Preservation System capable of long-term archive of digital content to augment its raw data holding. This repository is being used for such missions as HIRDLS, UARS, TOMS, OMI, among others. We will provide a status of this implementation; report on challenges, lessons learned, and detail our plans for future evolution to include other missions and services.

data management

Evaluation of Precision Landing Performance Using A Generalized Aerospace Simulation in Simulink Framework

NASA’s science and exploration goals to return to the Moon and beyond will need to perform precision landings to place humans and cargo supplies near places of scientific interest, surface resources, or pre-established basecamps. With the maturation of new navigation technology, such as terrain relative navigation, precision landing is now feasible, enabling new exploration sites, such as the lunar poles. However, verification of precision landing performance becomes crucial since not reaching the designated landing site would have a high risk of loss of mission. Therefore, having a high-fidelity simulation platform to evaluate six degrees of freedom vehicle performance during high-risk phases of flight such landing is a fundamental part of the system verification and risk reduction. The NASA Marshall Space Flight Center has developed the GeneraLized Aerospace Simulation in Simulink® (GLASS) tool which incorporates guidance, navigation, and control algorithms, as well as vehicle and environmental models, such as gravity, vehicle mass properties, navigation sensors, propulsion, and terrain models. GLASS uses the MathWorks® Simulink® environment which provides a model-based design framework that allows the incorporation of vehicle models in a modular architecture. The Simulink® environment provides seamless integration with all the MathWorks® capabilities and toolboxes, such as control design toolboxes and Simscape™ Multibody™ dynamics toolbox. The MathWorks® environment also allows for guidance, navigation, and control algorithms to be auto coded in C language, enabling quick software and hardware in the loop testing. This paper provides an overview of GLASS capabilities for analyzing precision landing performance, including navigation trades applied to a NASA human lander reference design architecture.

Guidance

A High-Performance Computing GNSS-aware Path Planning Algorithm for Safe Urban Flight Operations

The emergence and development of advanced technologies and vehicle types have created a growing demand for new forms of flight operations. These new and increasingly complex operational paradigms, such as Advanced and Urban Air Mobility (AAM/UAM), present regulatory authorities and the aviation community with several design-and-implementation challenges – particularly for highly autonomous vehicles. An overarching and daunting task is to develop protocols that can integrate these operations without compromising safety or disrupting traditional airspace operations. A shift toward a more predictive, autonomous, risk mitigation capability becomes critical to meet this challenge. This paper proposes and evaluates a computationally-efficient path planning approach to perform pre-flight planning and autonomous in-flight re-routing to minimize exposures to selected hazards. In our evaluation, hazards associated with degraded and missing critical GPS navigation data are considered. In this paper, we first present a high-performance computing path planning approach based on an adapted Bellman-Ford algorithm, developed in the CUDA programming language. Using the adapted path planning algorithm, we test this algorithm when encountering issues with GPS quality, and deliver an implementation that can produce flight paths that minimize exposure to risks, while maintaining a low computational burden. In our evaluation, the computation of periodic and aperiodic path updates are evaluated, prioritizing specific events as triggers for updates, based on changes to satellite availability. These critical events can lead to significant exposure to navigational hazards if not dealt with correctly.

GNSS

A High-Performance Computing GNSS-aware Path Planning Algorithm for Safe Urban Flight Operations

The emergence and development of advanced technologies and vehicle types have created a growing demand for new forms of flight operations. These new and increasingly complex operational paradigms, such as Advanced and Urban Air Mobility (AAM/UAM), present regulatory authorities and the aviation community with several design-and-implementation challenges – particularly for highly autonomous vehicles. An overarching and daunting task is to develop protocols that can integrate these operations without compromising safety or disrupting traditional airspace operations. A shift toward a more predictive, autonomous, risk mitigation capability becomes critical to meet this challenge. This paper proposes and evaluates a computationally-efficient path planning approach to perform pre-flight planning and autonomous in-flight re-routing to minimize exposures to selected hazards. In our evaluation, hazards associated with degraded and missing critical GPS navigation data are considered. In this paper, we first present a high-performance computing path planning approach based on an adapted Bellman-Ford algorithm, developed in the CUDA programming language. Using the adapted path planning algorithm, we test this algorithm when encountering issues with GPS quality, and deliver an implementation that can produce flight paths that minimize exposure to risks, while maintaining a low computational burden. In our evaluation, the computation of periodic and aperiodic path updates are evaluated, prioritizing specific events as triggers for updates, based on changes to satellite availability. These critical events can lead to significant exposure to navigational hazards if not dealt with correctly.

GNSS

A multi-satellite orbit determination problem in a parallel processing environment

The Engineering Orbit Analysis Unit at GE Valley Forge used an Intel Hypercube Parallel Processor to investigate the performance and gain experience of parallel processors with a multi-satellite orbit determination problem. A general study was selected in which major blocks of computation for the multi-satellite orbit computations were used as units to be assigned to the various processors on the Hypercube. Problems encountered or successes achieved in addressing the orbit determination problem would be more likely to be transferable to other parallel processors. The prime objective was to study the algorithm to allow processing of observations later in time than those employed in the state update. Expertise in ephemeris determination was exploited in addressing these problems and the facility used to bring a realism to the study which would highlight the problems which may not otherwise be anticipated. Secondary objectives were to gain experience of a non-trivial problem in a parallel processor environment, to explore the necessary interplay of serial and parallel sections of the algorithm in terms of timing studies, to explore the granularity (coarse vs. fine grain) to discover the granularity limit above which there would be a risk of starvation where the majority of nodes would be idle or under the limit where the overhead associated with splitting the problem may require more work and communication time than is useful.

Deakyne, M. S.

Assessing Global Surface Water Inundation Dynamics Using Combined Satellite Information from SMAP, AMSR2 and Landsat

A method to assess global land surface water (fw) inundation dynamics was developed by exploiting the enhanced fw sensitivity of L-band (1.4 GHz) passive microwave observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission. The L-band fw (fw(sub LBand)) retrievals were derived using SMAP H-polarization brightness temperature (Tb) observations and predefined L-band reference microwave emissivities for water and land endmembers. Potential soil moisture and vegetation contributions to the microwave signal were represented from overlapping higher frequency (Tb) observations from AMSR2. The resulting (fw(sub LBand)) global record has high temporal sampling (1-3 days) and 36-km spatial resolution. The (fw(sub LBand)) annual averages corresponded favourably (R=0.84, p<0.001) with a 250-m resolution static global water map (MOD44W) aggregated at the same spatial scale, while capturing significant inundation variations worldwide. The monthly (fw(sub LBand)) averages also showed seasonal inundation changes consistent with river discharge records within six major US river basins. An uncertainty analysis indicated generally reliable (fw(sub LBand)) performance for major land cover areas and under low to moderate vegetation cover, but with lower accuracy for detecting water bodies covered by dense vegetation. Finer resolution (30-m) (fw(sub LBand)) results were obtained for three sub-regions in North America using an empirical downscaling approach and ancillary global Water Occurrence Dataset (WOD) derived from the historical Landsat record. The resulting 30-m (fw(sub LBand)) retrievals showed favourable spatial accuracy for water (70.71%) and land (98.99%) classifications and seasonal wet and dry periods when compared to independent water maps derived from Landsat-8 imagery. The new (fw(sub LBand)) algorithms and continuing SMAP and AMSR2 operations provide for near real-time, multi-scale monitoring of global surface water inundation dynamics and potential flood risk.

WOD